What Happens Next if They Sign Teoscar?
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A lot of swing and miss in this lineup. Some good power but feels like a lineup that would be prone to some wild variability. Also, given how Casas looked for several months down the stretch, wondering if he should bat #3 instead of Yoshida.
Agree fully on the swing and miss. I suppose another plus to Urshela, possibly even as a primary 2B, is that he'd immediately become our best contact RHB by quite a bit.
My opinion is Casas is our best bat on opening day and I'd be happy to hit him wherever, but when Yoshida is on he's an on base machine so I like him moving the line along (and when he's in a slow-grounders-to-2B streak maybe our best baserunners in front of him can avoid the double plays?).
My opinion is Casas is our best bat on opening day and I'd be happy to hit him wherever, but when Yoshida is on he's an on base machine so I like him moving the line along (and when he's in a slow-grounders-to-2B streak maybe our best baserunners in front of him can avoid the double plays?).
Also, given how Yoshida looked for several months down the stretch, wondering if he should bat #6 instead of Casas.
To be fair, the mentions of money have come from members here speculating and not any of the reporters
Why would you wanna give more at bats to Yoshida than Casas? I'd flip those two.
EDIT: Sorry, redundant comment, I didn't see Jeff Frye's above.
I’d hate 4/75 or 4/80 for Teoscar, but this is a bit over the top. Teoscar has been consistently better than Tyler O’Neil, who has been bad for most of his career.
Teoscar has been an above average to great hitter throughout his career; that is just not something that O’Neil can say.
I think a lot of the trepidation about teoscar probably stems from the MLBTR prediction of a 4/$80m contract, which coincidentally matches the rumored term, and is frankly an insane number for a guy that appears to be on a multi-year downswing. His Fangraphs projection was a more reasonable 3/$45m, which to me still feels high, but I wouldn't be outraged about it.
4 years for someone with his profile would be a terrible idea. If it takes 4 years to get the job done, move on. I wouldn’t love 3 years but it wouldn’t be a killer. 2 would be ideal.
If Teoscar Hernandez was 2021 he wouldn’t be available for the price he’s available at. I find it odd people aren’t factoring in the perceived price adjusted risk.
We’d be a better team tomorrow if he was signed today.
The Red Sox started the off season with zero right handed hitter capable of hitting 30 bombs. Adding two right handed hitting outfielders (Hernandez and O’Neil) who can pop 30 for let’s say a total 20AAV would be pretty damn good business IMO.
If that can be parlayed into flipping other assets into pitching it would be even better business.
The problem with this is the gap between "can" and "will." Each has done this once in their career, both three seasons ago now. I'm not sure I'd pencil either one in for 30 home runs just yet.
3 might make sense if you have some reason to expect trend reversal and the kids (some combination of Duran, Abreu Rafaela) are bound for new homes in exchange for win-now-and-later pitching.
Then again, I also said this when O’Neill was acquired so there you go. Or maybe more than one are outbound? Or I’m seeing shadows.
So against lefties.
Teoscar
O’Neill
Refnsyder
With Yoshida at DH (Can Refs play center?)
Against righties
Teoscar
O’Neill
Duran
With Yoshida at DH
O'Neill splits are nearly identical in his career against lefties and righties.
Teoscar sluggs nearly .100 points higher against lefties than righties.
Bench
Abreu
Rafaella
Teoscar
O’Neill
Refnsyder
With Yoshida at DH (Can Refs play center?)
Against righties
Teoscar
O’Neill
Duran
With Yoshida at DH
O'Neill splits are nearly identical in his career against lefties and righties.
Teoscar sluggs nearly .100 points higher against lefties than righties.
Bench
Abreu
Rafaella
if Drury is available he should the targeted RH power bat. He plays the position of biggest need for the Sox (2b) and was a better hitter than Teo last year. Hernandez is just another unimpressive glove and less than exciting bat to throw into an already crowded OF. Pass.
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RS2004foreever, Refsnyder has started 40 games in CF over 2021-23, and O'Neill has started 30 games in CF over the same period.
Cannot see Rafaela on the bench. He's either playing regularly in the minors or traded to another club.
Cannot see Rafaela on the bench. He's either playing regularly in the minors or traded to another club.
The fangraphs write up has me a little less nervous about a potential signing due to improvements made to his defense. I just don't enjoy personally watching batting profiles like his and Duvall's since they can collapse at any time.
21. Teoscar Hernández, OF, Age 31
"Ben’s Take
I’m not sure whether Teoscar Hernández should be last in this group of peers, but I’m confident that he’s in roughly the right part of this list. You’d need a fine-toothed comb to separate him from the similar options on the market, as I keep mentioning. I’m worried about the uptick in strikeout rate this year – he struck out nearly a third of the time with a career-high swinging strike rate. He can post excellent offensive numbers while striking out too much because of his phenomenal raw power – that’s basically the tradeoff he’s been making his whole career, in fact – but plate discipline this poor is right on the cusp of unplayable.
Those are the downsides, but there are plenty of silver linings. Hernández’s defense has improved throughout his time in the majors; the Mariners and Jays were each comfortable putting him in right field and giving him occasional rest days at DH. His power didn’t abandon him even in a down year; if his strikeout rate dips back down towards his career average, there’s no reason to think he won’t replicate his earlier form. He’s not a sure thing, and I think there are more warning signs here than for most of the similar hitters available this winter, but the upside is monstrous: an average-glove right fielder with offense 30% above league average on a $15 million a year contract is a huge steal in today’s game.
Player Notes
Hernández’s bat wasn’t the sure thing the Mariners hoped for when they traded for him a year ago. His 2023 season was up-and-down, with a slow start through May followed by alternating months of tremendous and then lackluster performance the rest of the way. His monthly wRC+ from June through the end of the season was mercurial: 160, 46, 191, 76. Hernández continued to crush the ball when he made contact – his xwOBACON has stayed right around a very solid .470 in each of the last three years – but a jump in his chase rate meant his strikeout and walk rates each moved in the wrong direction in 2023, leading to dips in his overall production. Regaining some of his plate discipline should be among his top priorities in 2024.
With that said, Hernández has spent enough time near the top of the exit velocity and barrel rate leaderboards over the last few seasons that at the age of 31, he’s a strong candidate for any club looking for a right-handed power bat in an outfield market that lacks any sure bets. If he can manage to be an average defender in an outfield corner – according to Statcast metrics, he made strides defensively with respect to both his range and his arm in 2023 – that wouldn’t hurt, either. – CG"
21. Teoscar Hernández, OF, Age 31
"Ben’s Take
I’m not sure whether Teoscar Hernández should be last in this group of peers, but I’m confident that he’s in roughly the right part of this list. You’d need a fine-toothed comb to separate him from the similar options on the market, as I keep mentioning. I’m worried about the uptick in strikeout rate this year – he struck out nearly a third of the time with a career-high swinging strike rate. He can post excellent offensive numbers while striking out too much because of his phenomenal raw power – that’s basically the tradeoff he’s been making his whole career, in fact – but plate discipline this poor is right on the cusp of unplayable.
Those are the downsides, but there are plenty of silver linings. Hernández’s defense has improved throughout his time in the majors; the Mariners and Jays were each comfortable putting him in right field and giving him occasional rest days at DH. His power didn’t abandon him even in a down year; if his strikeout rate dips back down towards his career average, there’s no reason to think he won’t replicate his earlier form. He’s not a sure thing, and I think there are more warning signs here than for most of the similar hitters available this winter, but the upside is monstrous: an average-glove right fielder with offense 30% above league average on a $15 million a year contract is a huge steal in today’s game.
Player Notes
Hernández’s bat wasn’t the sure thing the Mariners hoped for when they traded for him a year ago. His 2023 season was up-and-down, with a slow start through May followed by alternating months of tremendous and then lackluster performance the rest of the way. His monthly wRC+ from June through the end of the season was mercurial: 160, 46, 191, 76. Hernández continued to crush the ball when he made contact – his xwOBACON has stayed right around a very solid .470 in each of the last three years – but a jump in his chase rate meant his strikeout and walk rates each moved in the wrong direction in 2023, leading to dips in his overall production. Regaining some of his plate discipline should be among his top priorities in 2024.
With that said, Hernández has spent enough time near the top of the exit velocity and barrel rate leaderboards over the last few seasons that at the age of 31, he’s a strong candidate for any club looking for a right-handed power bat in an outfield market that lacks any sure bets. If he can manage to be an average defender in an outfield corner – according to Statcast metrics, he made strides defensively with respect to both his range and his arm in 2023 – that wouldn’t hurt, either. – CG"
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You can't roster 6 guys whose primary defensive position is OF with a 7th that you're also looking toward sharing time out there.
If we do eventually sign Teoscar it’ll be interesting to see the terms. The rumored price tag of 4/$80M would be fairly high given the recent contracts earned by free agent outfielders recently. The only deals approaching that level either had better performance in their walk year, relative youth, or some combination of the two. For reference, Teoscar put up 1.8 fWAR and is headed into his age 31 season.
Nick Castellanos (2020, age in next season: 28, prior year fWAR: 2.6) - 4/$64M with an opt out after 2 years
Marcell Ozuna (2021, 30, 2.5 in Covid year) - 4/$65M with team option for year 5
Nick Castellanos (2022, 30, 3.7) - 5/$100
Starling Marte (2022, 33, 5.3) - 4/$78M
Kyle Schwarber (2022, 29, 2.9) - 4/$79M
Chris Taylor (2022, 31, 2.9) - 4/$60 with team option for year 5 ($4M buyout)
Avisail Garcia (2022, 31, 2.8) - 4/$48M with team option for year 5 ($5M buyout)
Mark Canha (2022, 33, 3.0) - 2/$26.5 with team option for year 3 ($2M buyout)
Andrew Benintendi (2023, 28, 2.8) - 5/$75M
Mitch Haniger (2023, 32, 0.8) - 3/$43.5 - with player option in year 3
Lourdes Guerriel (2024, 30, 2.1) - 3/$42 with opt out after year 2 and $12M team option in year 4
It’s also interesting to note that besides the first Castellanos contract (nice job by you Nick to negotiate that opt out!), it’s been a mixed bag in terms of performance vs. contract. Schwarber/Taylor/Canha have been ok but the others have ranged from below average to poor.
Nick Castellanos (2020, age in next season: 28, prior year fWAR: 2.6) - 4/$64M with an opt out after 2 years
Marcell Ozuna (2021, 30, 2.5 in Covid year) - 4/$65M with team option for year 5
Nick Castellanos (2022, 30, 3.7) - 5/$100
Starling Marte (2022, 33, 5.3) - 4/$78M
Kyle Schwarber (2022, 29, 2.9) - 4/$79M
Chris Taylor (2022, 31, 2.9) - 4/$60 with team option for year 5 ($4M buyout)
Avisail Garcia (2022, 31, 2.8) - 4/$48M with team option for year 5 ($5M buyout)
Mark Canha (2022, 33, 3.0) - 2/$26.5 with team option for year 3 ($2M buyout)
Andrew Benintendi (2023, 28, 2.8) - 5/$75M
Mitch Haniger (2023, 32, 0.8) - 3/$43.5 - with player option in year 3
Lourdes Guerriel (2024, 30, 2.1) - 3/$42 with opt out after year 2 and $12M team option in year 4
It’s also interesting to note that besides the first Castellanos contract (nice job by you Nick to negotiate that opt out!), it’s been a mixed bag in terms of performance vs. contract. Schwarber/Taylor/Canha have been ok but the others have ranged from below average to poor.
No doubt, I was counting him as #7. IF the Sox are interested in Hernandez as well as Paxton, It's likely with an eye toward packaging up one of the young OFs with one of the bottom of the rotation types on the roster and perhaps a prospect for pitching help.
It’s too funny. Everyone’s complaining about not making moves or being “in on” FAs and then immediately we gripe, “yeah, but not THAT move!”
Teoscar is a proven ML player. We need more of them. And we need to move away from marginal talent. This team is so mediocre as constructed it’s maddening. We need to get solid professional players and stop trying to fix things with “value” and “upside”. Sometimes you just need to have good players and stop worrying about the AAV or pre-arb control. Those things are important but building a real team is so much more than the value shown on a spreadsheet.
Teoscar is a proven ML player. We need more of them. And we need to move away from marginal talent. This team is so mediocre as constructed it’s maddening. We need to get solid professional players and stop trying to fix things with “value” and “upside”. Sometimes you just need to have good players and stop worrying about the AAV or pre-arb control. Those things are important but building a real team is so much more than the value shown on a spreadsheet.
I don’t disagree with the general thought, and maybe Drury is also a good option to consider for 2b (although I believe Merrifield would be a good stopgap who is a solid mlb player too), but Hernandez isn’t a “less exciting” bat in our outfield. We currently don’t really have an exciting outfield. Yoshida is fine, Duran is still up in the air, ref isn’t an everyday player, abreau is unknown, even O’Neill is kind of a flip of the coin right now. We need solid players. Is Hernandez an all-star? Probably not, but we need decent players that we can count on. We have question marks everywhere. Even our best player isn’t an overall slam dunk. ($300 million for a player who sux at D and can’t run was so reactionary)
build the team around solid players and stop with the gambles.
Totally agree with this. Just reading through posts the last few days is driving me mad. A team like the Red Sox shouldn't care if we only get 3 good years out of a 4 year contract right now, or that we're only going to get 14 AAV of "value" on a 18 AAV contract, or whatever.
The Sox are a last place team right now. We need help from basically anyone willing to come here.
So the Red Sox are looking for a Trevor Story like signing to block up the LF to fix the lack of rotation....
I am really want Breslow to succeed but this is some Bloomesque poor team building.
Teoscar at a casual level looks like he helps, a hard hitting RHH OF who can play all three OF in a pinch. And it looks like the Red Sox are going full in on Hard Hit and Barrel Percentage which Teoscar is very very good at. The issue is his whiff rate is awful. Here is a guy with no zone control entering the back half of his career. Anything over ~5.5 WAR over the next three years is really buying into a righty in Fenway myth. Maybe 50/3 makes sense but the Dodgers would buy him as their 7th OF for the paltry sum.
I am really want Breslow to succeed but this is some Bloomesque poor team building.
Teoscar at a casual level looks like he helps, a hard hitting RHH OF who can play all three OF in a pinch. And it looks like the Red Sox are going full in on Hard Hit and Barrel Percentage which Teoscar is very very good at. The issue is his whiff rate is awful. Here is a guy with no zone control entering the back half of his career. Anything over ~5.5 WAR over the next three years is really buying into a righty in Fenway myth. Maybe 50/3 makes sense but the Dodgers would buy him as their 7th OF for the paltry sum.
He has a slugged over .600 at Fenway in a 45 game sample. It’s not like a blind “Fenway will help him” scouting guess. Fenway DOES help him.
Some of this I could agree with but sometimes this makes no sense. I do think overpaying for someone that helps you team makes sense but does Teoscar help this team? Jarren Duran projects to be about the same value player Teoscar does next year as does Wlyer Abreu. Unless you can use one of those two in a package to get a starter, why would you be paying Teoscar 20 million a year? You only have so many spots on the diamond and when you tie 20 million dollar multiyear contract anchor to them you are forced to use them when they are healthy despite a decline. See Story, Trevor.
Hernandez has a better OPS against the Sox in Toronto than he does at Fenway, though, fwiw. Seems like he just crushes the Sox, which has seemed true of a lot of recent Jays.
I mean, he's a good overall hitter though, right? Career ops+ of 118. Hits a homer every 18.5 ab. Career ops of .802. He's not prime Manny. He's not some sort of stud. But he's a good hitter. And he provides RH power, which the Sox need. I'm not opposed to signing him, but the big need is still starting pitching.
Apologies if this has already be asked.
What does Hernandez provide that Duvall at potentially half the cost doesn’t?
What does Hernandez provide that Duvall at potentially half the cost doesn’t?
I think the Sox would be extremely lucky to get 3 good years out of TH; the likelihood is that the decline starts now. His career numbers are buoyed by 2020-2022, but we’re looking at the 105-110 OPS+ of 2017, 18, 23 and beyond. Now I don’t have a crystal ball, and the FG write up shows that he still seems to hit the ball hard, but they’re very clear he needs to fix his swing decisions for any other skills to play.
Right now the Sox have Rafaella as a possible CFer, and only if you really squint and rely on his speed, Duran. If the plan is to get rid of the young guys for pitching, who are they bringing back to play CF?
Being 4+ years younger and a better career slash line (.261/.316/.486/.802 vs .232/.291/.472/.764).
That said, I'm not keen on the idea of Teoscar Hernandez unless it's a short deal. But I'm also not going to get too worked up over one dubious "report" of an imminent signing. Way less stressful to wait until something actually happens before (over)reacting to it.
Despite his career numbers at Fenway, I actually don’t think it helps him much. He is very much a balanced hitter in terms of ground/fly/line drive tendencies and he utilizes the whole field (36% fly balls the past three years, 41% pull rate). Compare this to an Adam Duvall who is an extreme pull-side fly ball hitter. (54% fly balls, 51% pull rate). I suspect his success at Fenway is more of a function of the pitchers we’ve run out the past few years vs. the ballpark.
My larger concern with Teoscar is his approach. He’s never been a selective hitter but his power has allowed him to get away with it. The past couple of years there has been a change in how pitchers attacked him - focusing more on sliders low and away vs fastballs. Since 2021, his 4-seam fastball % has gone from 34% to 24% and his slider% has gone from 27% to 33%. This mirrors a trend overall in baseball but pitchers have taken that to the extreme vs Teoscar (it could also be that more pitchers he faced last year featured sliders in their arsenal but I don’t know). Either way, he didn’t handle it well as his increased chase rate and decreased contact rate led to his lowest walk rate and highest k rate since 2018.
Can he adjust to the adjustments made by the pitchers? Maybe - there is some evidence that hitters are starting to adapt to the increased slider usage league wide. It’s a bit of a gamble though and I would be very hesitant to a multi-year commitment to find out. It’s unlikely he would accept but it would be great if they could convince him to take an Adrian Beltre-like pillow contract.
Yeah, he’s a decent to solid player but this is a guy with a .305 OBP last year and .310 last 2 years. Is this someone you want to place a 3-4 year bet on? The Yankees were a prime example of a lineup that was too easy to get out outside of Judge. I don’t want the Sox to mirror that. I think those issues were a large reason why they went out and got Soto and Verdugo.
Its amazing to me the amount of people who want to return the same players as last years “last place team”. Duvall is a fine 4th outfielder. But we already have 3 of them. I’m not necessarily saying that Teoscar is amazing but to fall back on “Duvall can provide the same production at half the price” is just kinda lame.
If we want to wish upon the future of younger guys I can understand it, but bringing back the likes of Duvall and Paxton because they are “value plays” doesn’t move us forward.
If we want to wish upon the future of younger guys I can understand it, but bringing back the likes of Duvall and Paxton because they are “value plays” doesn’t move us forward.
I don’t mean to be snarky or surly… I just don’t want to rehash the last few years of “Hope everyone stays healthy and we also have positive regression on half the team and also young guys progress to their potential, and also we get the best case scenario for everything so we have a chance for the playoffs”.
I enjoy reading everyone’s comments and thoughts so don’t take it the wrong way. Just my gut check.
I enjoy reading everyone’s comments and thoughts so don’t take it the wrong way. Just my gut check.
The sentiment that they need to add better players wherever available is justified. A last place team simply needs to get better where it can. The problem with adding Hernandez at 20 mil/year is that he isn't a starting pitcher. I'd rather give Snell 35 million a year over 6 years than Hernandez 20 over 4. The upgrade to the team by adding a 3-5 win pitcher vastly outweighs adding 2 win outfielder. This because the team has 2-3 outfielders that could give them a 2 win season- but only Bello that has a realistic chance of putting up 3-5 wins as a starter. I know that you can only sign the players that want to come to Boston, and possibly none of Snell, Montgomery or Stroman want to. But if signing Hernandez in any way hinders the ability to bring in at least 1 (and ideally 2) quality starters, then it feels like a less than ideal use of resources.
When you factor in the potential that Hernandez could be entering a decline phase, the deal becomes even harder to support. This isn't about rejecting Hernandez because he wouldn't be a 'value' signing, it's because I think they should put their resources into other, more likely to be impactful, areas.
One year deals are easier to swallow than the potential four that has been bandied about for Teoscar. We don’t have many players on this team that have been with them for four years as it is.
It’s a pretty rough market for right handed hitting. Teoscar is pretty much the top of the pile so I can see the motivation to look into him. But going overboard in a rough market is usually a mistake. I’m not particularly worried until the ink is dry. The reported numbers are being leaked by his agent, presumably.
How do we know what "type" Breslow is? We can't say whether or not he would overpay for a player like Hernandez until he either does or doesn't. At best, we really won't have any idea what "type" Breslow is until at least February when spring training opens and we have a more complete idea of what the 2024 team will look like (let alone the organization as a whole going forward).
Not sure if this belongs here or rumors:
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1740056304758984901?s=46&t=ruXftPZUQ24009U4JlZWeg
Chris Cotillo: Sources: Red Sox remain among the most aggressive on Teoscar Hernandez, who has a handful of interested teams. Angels heavily involved too. Could get a 4-year deal if bidding gets there.
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1740056304758984901?s=46&t=ruXftPZUQ24009U4JlZWeg
Chris Cotillo: Sources: Red Sox remain among the most aggressive on Teoscar Hernandez, who has a handful of interested teams. Angels heavily involved too. Could get a 4-year deal if bidding gets there.
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