2015 Dolphins: Fire the Lazor!

[Papelbon's Poutine]

That's a nice late pickup, obviously pending $ details, but I can't imagine it was crazy. 

 

[pdaj]

Finally! That's a "Fuck yeah!" on the Jennings signing. 2 years/8 million. A couple of NFL gurus I follow on twitter loved his film this past season; he's still "got it", apparently. Exactly what this offense needed. Stills and Jennings will be on the outside, with Landry remaining in the slot. Nicely done.

 

[sodenj5]

They really can go a number of ways in the draft now. My gut says they try and trade down into the 20s and recoup their third rounder.

They've done a tremendous job filling depth with quality veterans. Not superstars, but if someone gets hurt, there are competent, experienced players that can step in. They set a price on Jennings and were willing to let him field other offers. They were not going to over extend themselves to sign him for a year or two. Well played by Hickey and Tannenbaum.

 

[sodenj5]

What Miami is hopefully doing is freeing themselves up to take the BPA at 14 or wherever they end up drafting. They still have some holes to fill, but there's no major glaring hole that needs to be addressed with a first rounder that will be expected to come in and start right away like James at RT last year. My HOPE is that they're going to take a long, hard look at Todd Gurley. He would be a great pick for several reasons:
 

• This is a draft that's thin at the top on elite talent. It's deep in several positions like RB, WR, MLB, but thin at guys that may be true Pro Bowl type talents, very much like the Dion Jordan draft of 2011.
• Gurley is, by all accounts an elite talent, a guy that may be one of the best RBs in the league if he can stay healthy and if he recovers from his knee surgery 100%. Two big ifs. Those two variables along with his position are why he's viewed as a top 10-15 player instead of a top 3-5.
• If Miami were to draft him, they do not need him to start or play Week 1. Lamar Miller gives them the luxury of letting Gurley recouperate to 100% before playing him.
• Lamar Miller works best in a committee. He played well last season, but his YPC drop off a cliff once he passes the 15 carry mark. He isn't a workhorse back. A committee also limits the amount of hits Gurley takes as he works his way back to 100%.
• Gurley compliments Miller very well. They would work well in tandem, whereas a guy like Melvin Gordon would be somewhat redundant.
• Miller is entering the final season of his rookie deal. While I don't think he would "break the bank", there's certainly a possibility that this could be his last season in Miami, regardless of if they draft Gurley or not. Also with Tannehill and Olivier Vernon set to be FAs as well, MIller is probably low on the pecking order for a new deal.

If you can't tell, I really want them to draft Gurley.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Are you going to be pissed when Miami passes on Gurley, only to see BB confound the ESPN-ers and snatch him up? (Just mostly kidding.)

 

[sodenj5]

Are you going to be pissed when Miami passes on Gurley, only to see BB confound the ESPN-ers and snatch him up? (Just mostly kidding.)

 
I'll only be upset if they draft someone boring like like a guard at 14 and pass on guys like Gurley and Devante Parker.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

 
I'll only be upset if they draft someone boring like like a guard at 14 and pass on guys like Gurley and Devante Parker.

 
I don't know much about Miami's roster so I can't comment on if a guard would actually make sense or not.  But there is something funny about fans of a team in Miami being disappointed if their draft pick is not as shiny and flashy as possible.  Glitz and glamour are what is most important in building a football team.

 

[sodenj5]

 
I don't know much about Miami's roster so I can't comment on if a guard would actually make sense or not.  But there is something funny about fans of a team in Miami being disappointed if their draft pick is not as shiny and flashy as possible.  Glitz and glamour are what is most important in building a football team.

 
They've also invested a huge amount of resources in the OL the last few seasons.
Mike Pouncey- 1st rounder-recently signed to a record breaking contract
Ju'waun James- 1st rounder last year
Branden Albert-Signed to a huge contract
Billy Turner-3rd rounder last year
Dallas Thomas-3rd rounder
 
My disappointment would be much more that they can't get the talent that they've amassed to function correctly than that the pick is unsexy. I would have zero issue with them using any other pick on the offensive line, but #14 should be spent somewhere other than the line.

 

[pdaj]

Soden --
 
3rd-rounders are hit-and-miss across all teams. That's why, to me, it doesn't make sense for the Fins to trade back for a 3rd, unless they "know" the player they want will still be available. This is also why I won't be terribly upset if Dallas Thomas ends up being a decent backup G/T his entire career. It happens.
 
I'm completely against using a 1st round pick on a RB, never mind one in the top 1/2. None of the organizations that win consistently use their draft assets in this way; and it's proven time and time again that backs can be taken off the trash heap and be successful. Miami doesn't have the luxury -- either in current talent or in an abundance of picks -- to select a RB with their first-rounder.
 
I'd much rather see the Fins draft the best available CB/WR on the board, but I'd be fine with G/LB, also. The most important factor for this team's success? Ryan Tannehill's progression. And keeping him upright is a huge component of that. Thus, if La'el Collins is a Dolphin come Thursday night, I won't shed a tear.
 
I'm hoping Gurley goes top-10, increasing the chances that a better player slides to Miami at 14.

 

[pdaj]

Just to add to the discussion, here are the running backs drafted in the 1st round the past few seasons:
 
2014: None (Sankey, Hill, Hyde in 2nd)  
2013: None (Bernard, Bell, Ball, Lacy, Michael in 2nd)  
2012: Richardson, D. Martin, D. Wilson
2011: Ingram (28th overall)
2010: Spiller, Matthews, Best
 
How many of those 1st-round backs have been team-changers?

 

[sodenj5]

Soden --
 
3rd-rounders are hit-and-miss across all teams. That's why, to me, it doesn't make sense for the Fins to trade back for a 3rd, unless they "know" the player they want will still be available. This is also why I won't be terribly upset if Dallas Thomas ends up being a decent backup G/T his entire career. It happens.
 
I'm completely against using a 1st round pick on a RB, never mind one in the top 1/2. None of the organizations that win consistently use their draft assets in this way; and it's proven time and time again that backs can be taken off the trash heap and be successful. Miami doesn't have the luxury -- either in current talent or in an abundance of picks -- to select a RB with their first-rounder.
 
I'd much rather see the Fins draft the best available CB/WR on the board, but I'd be fine with G/LB, also. The most important factor for this team's success? Ryan Tannehill's progression. And keeping him upright is a huge component of that. Thus, if La'el Collins is a Dolphin come Thursday night, I won't shed a tear.
 
I'm hoping Gurley goes top-10, increasing the chances that a better player slides to Miami at 14.

 
To each their own. I wouldn't be upset with a LB or WR, and I think the Fins may do just that, however Gurley has the potential to be one of the top 2-3 players at his position if everything goes right for him. Running back has certainly been devalued over the last several years with guys like Bell and Lacey falling into the second round and Miami has swung and missed on a guy like Ronnie Brown with the #2 overall 10 years ago in 2005 while hitting on a guy like Lamar Miller in the 4th round.
 
Miami's offense is predicated on the passing game. The running game is a function of the passing game, as they frequently ran out of the shotgun with success. Having a power running game where Miami can run the ball effectively out of 2 WR sets would bring more balance to the offense, help them grind out those close games that they lost last year, and open up the passing game, instead of vice versa as it is now. The fins also struggled in the red zone due to their inability to pound out the tough yards around the goal line. How many third and shorts did Miami fail to convert last season? Too many. How many times did the offense get the ball and go three and out only to put the gassed defense back out on the field? Too many times.
 
I'll try and make my point this way: in 2013 the Steelers selected Jarvis Jones in the first round and Le'Veon Bell in the second round. Do you think they would have any reservations today picking Bell with that first rounder instead of Jones? Devante Parker or La'el Collins or Eric Kendricks may be very good football players, but none of them posses the ceiling that Gurley does.
 
While I agree with your sentiment that being a first round running back guarantees nothing, you can do that same exercise with nearly any position and end up with similar results.

 

[rymflaherty]

Most of the mocks I've seen don't have the need/value match you'd like to see at #14. If that winds up to be the case next Thursday, I'd have little issue with them selecting Gurley (if he's available).
 
The injury is a concern, but I'm one who leans toward the "Best College RB since Adrian Peterson" rhetoric being less hyperbolic, and more-so, closer to reality.
If you're thinking along those lines then the lack of impact 1st round RB's isn't really an issue, because you're argument for taking him is that he's superior to every one of those players, across draft classes.

 

[sodenj5]

Most of the mocks I've seen don't have the need/value match you'd like to see at #14. If that winds up to be the case next Thursday, I'd have little issue with them selecting Gurley (if he's available).
 
The injury is a concern, but I'm one who leans toward the "Best College RB since Adrian Peterson" rhetoric being less hyperbolic, and more-so, closer to reality.
If you're thinking along those lines then the lack of impact 1st round RB's isn't really an issue, because you're argument for taking him is that he's superior to every one of those players, across draft classes.

The injury is likely the only reason Miami may have a shot at him at 14. If he closes out the season healthy and goes through the combine and workout process, he's likely being touted as one of the best 2-3 players in the draft and a top 10 overall pick.

 

[CouchsideSteve]

Count me among those who would be against drafting Gurley at 14, for reasons pdaj stated above. This draft is also so deep at WR, I'd  prefer to hold off there -- not sure there's a ton of differentiation between a guy like Parker vs. some of the guys you might find available in the second round (e.g., Dorsett or my personal fav, Devin Smith). 
 
Trae Waynes would be atop my wishlist (big, physical corner), and I wouldn't hate it if they traded back to draft Landon Collins. The DB and LB corps still seem really thin to me -- just feels like that is the side of the ball we need to invest in, if there are players on the board that justify the pick (which I expect there will be). 

 

[sodenj5]

Count me among those who would be against drafting Gurley at 14, for reasons pdaj stated above. This draft is also so deep at WR, I'd  prefer to hold off there -- not sure there's a ton of differentiation between a guy like Parker vs. some of the guys you might find available in the second round (e.g., Dorsett or my personal fav, Devin Smith). 
 
Trae Waynes would be atop my wishlist (big, physical corner), and I wouldn't hate it if they traded back to draft Landon Collins. The DB and LB corps still seem really thin to me -- just feels like that is the side of the ball we need to invest in, if there are players on the board that justify the pick (which I expect there will be). 

Waynes feels like the beneficiary of an artificially inflated market, basically the total opposite of Gurley. I would understand the pick, but wouldn't be excited about it.

To me, the opportunity to draft a guy with the talent of Gurley, especially outside of the top 10 picks, is rare. In two years when we look back on this draft, and if Gurley turns out to be the second coming of Lynch or the best back since AP, no one here will have any regrets drafting Waynes or La'el Collins over him because it's not perceived as a "good value" or the smart pick?

 

[jsinger121]

Dave Hyde ‏@davehydesports  40m40 minutes ago
All Dion Jordan,questions sidestepped by Dolphins brass. My translation: don't expect him back.

 

[sodenj5]

They did a similar number regarding Mike Wallace. Do they trade him during the draft, and what can they get for compensation? A 5th? 6th? this would alter their draft strategy quite a bit. Someone like Vic Beasley might be the answer at 14 if they move on from Jordan.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

He gone. Bye Dion, the last of Ireland's disasters.

Omar Kelly thinks the Gurley love is a smokescreen to trade down. And to help gurley's agent who used to work for tannenbaum

 

[CouchsideSteve]

I don't want to belabor the point, but just a few additional thoughts on why I think Gurley would be a *terrible* investment for this team:
 
(1) We're thin at multiple positions, and just whiffed on a high pick in 2013 (Jordan) -- now isn't the time to take a gamble at a position where we already have an above-average young player
(2) Gurley is no doubt a risky bet, if for no other reason than there is a non-zero chance he doesn't ever return to form from a major knee surgery (see Dominique Foxworth -- ACL recoveries are far from 100% certainty)
(3) ACL injury aside, RBs have a shorter shelf life than virtually any other position in the game 
(4) The recent track-record of 1st round backs isn't very good, as pdaj points out above (more on this below)
(5) The RB position is extremely volatile: Spreading your risk across multiple low-cost investments seems to be the most economical approach, as demonstrated by the Patriots, Ravens, Packers, Broncos, 49ers, et al.  
(6) Just look at where the top-10 rushers over the last five years have been taken in the draft:

• 2014: Murray (3rd); Bell (2nd); McCoy (2nd); Lynch (1st*); Forsett (7th); Foster (UDFA); Lacy (2nd); Hill (2nd); Gore (3rd); Miller (4th)
• 2013: McCoy (2nd); Forte (2nd); Charles (3rd); Morris (6th); Peterson (1st); Lynch (1st*); Mathews (1st); Lacy (2nd); Gore (3rd); Murray (3rd)
• 2012: Peterson (1st); Morris (6th); Lynch (1st*); Charles (3rd); Martin (1st); Foster (UDFA); Ridley (3rd); Spiller (1st); Johnson (1st); Gore (3rd)
• 2011: Jones-Drew (2nd); Rice (2nd); Turner (5th); McCoy (2nd); Foster (UDFA); Gore (3rd); Lynch (1st*); McGahee (1st); Jackson (1st); Mathews (1st)
• 2010: Foster (UDFA); Charles (3rd); Turner (5th); Johnson (1st); Jones-Drew (2nd); Peterson (1st); Mendenhall (1st); Jackson (1st); Bradshaw (7th); Rice (2nd)

So, needless to say, the majority of top NFL running backs aren't first round selections (only 20% of top-3 rushing seasons produced were produced by first rounders in the last 5 years). But I'll grant that isn't necessarily a fair comparison, since there are obviously more RBs being selected in the later rounds. 
 
To fairly evaluate first round picks, let's go player-by-player since 2000:
 
Home Runs (7 of 38; 18%): Jamal Lewis, Shaun Alexander, LaDanian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Chris Johnson
Solid Producers (7 of 38; 18%): Thomas Jones, Deuce McAllister, Willis McGahee, Ronnie Brown, DeAngelo Williams, Reggie Bush, Ryan Mathews, 
Lackluster (10 of 38; 26%): Michael Bennett, T.J. Duckett, Kevin Jones, Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown
Busts (11 of 38; 29%): Ron Dayne, Trung Candidate, William Green, Chris Perry, Cadillac Williams, Laurence Maroney, Felix Jones, Beanie Wells, Jahvid Best, Trent Richardson, David Wilson
Jury's Out (3 of 38; 8%): Doug Martin, Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller (...and assuredly no Home Runs here) 
 
The ROI for even "sure thing" RBs like Gurley & Melvin Gordon is terrible, which is why NFL teams have shifted away from drafting the position in Round 1. 
 
*The calculus looks even worse if you discount Lynch's success based on the fact his potential wasn't realized with the team that drafted him -- for legitimate reasons

 

[Super Nomario]

I don't want to belabor the point, but just a few additional thoughts on why I think Gurley would be a *terrible* investment for this team:
 
(1) We're thin at multiple positions, and just whiffed on a high pick in 2013 (Jordan) -- now isn't the time to take a gamble at a position where we already have an above-average young player
(2) Gurley is no doubt a risky bet, if for no other reason than there is a non-zero chance he doesn't ever return to form from a major knee surgery (see Dominique Foxworth -- ACL recoveries are far from 100% certainty)

These are fair points.
 

(3) ACL injury aside, RBs have a shorter shelf life than virtually any other position in the game 

Isn't this all the more reason to draft RBs, since you get their best seasons (whereas if you sign vets you get the downside)?
 

(5) The RB position is extremely volatile: Spreading your risk across multiple low-cost investments seems to be the most economical approach, as demonstrated by the Patriots, Ravens, Packers, Broncos, 49ers, et al.  

The Patriots have used a fair amount of draft capital on RBs (1st in 2006, 2nd and 3rd in 2011), the Ravens used a second on Ray Rice and then paid him big money, the Packers used a 2nd on Eddie Lacy in 2013 and Denver used a 2nd on Montee Ball the same year, the Niners gave Gore a couple big contracts, etc. I don't see these teams as examples of what you're describing.
 

 (6) Just look at where the top-10 rushers over the last five years have been taken in the draft:
 
So, needless to say, the majority of top NFL running backs aren't first round selections (only 20% of top-3 rushing seasons produced were produced by first rounders in the last 5 years). But I'll grant that isn't necessarily a fair comparison, since there are obviously more RBs being selected in the later rounds. 
 
To fairly evaluate first round picks, let's go player-by-player since 2000:
 
The ROI for even "sure thing" RBs like Gurley & Melvin Gordon is terrible, which is why NFL teams have shifted away from drafting the position in Round 1.

Unless you're willing to do this for all positions, I'm not sure how valuable this analysis is. The Super Bowl last year was played between a sixth-rounder and a third-rounder; the leader in passer rating was undrafted; the leader in receptions and receiving yards was a sixth-round pick; the sack leader was a third-rounder; the two leaders in interceptions were a fourth-rounder and undrafted. I'm cherry-picking, but there are draft busts and low-round successes at every position. Is RB worse than other positions? Maybe, maybe not, but you need to contextualize these numbers to be sure.

 

[sodenj5]

There's risk associated with every pick. Dion Jordan was the top defensive player in the 2011 draft, that hasn't worked out. Even in that same draft, has Eric Fisher or Luke Joeckel proven to be worthy of the first two selection ahead of Jordan? Would you say that RG3 was worth the Redskins trading up to draft him? Would you say he's been better than Russell Wilson, drafted in the third round? Have Christian Ponder or Blaine Gabbert worked out?
 
I understand that there's a HIGHER risk that the RB selected in the first round will not pan out or won't have the longevity of a "safer" pick, and there is more value when searching for a RB in the later rounds, but there are plenty of safe picks that are busts as well. Chance Warmack was seen as a can't miss, perennial Pro-Bowl guard. That hasn't come to fruition. 
 
Even in this draft there are big question marks surrounding the top picks:
 
Will Winston stop being an idiot off the field?
Can Mariota transition successfully to a pro-style offense?
Is Kevin White a one year wonder in a pass happy system?
Can Amari Cooper be a legit #1 despite lacking prototypical size?
Will Gurley be 100%?
Is Waynes a true #1 CB or is he just being inflated by the lack of quality in FA and the draft? 
 
My point is, if the reason to not select Gurley, who is seen as a possible generational talent, is because he's a RB, then that's not a valid reason to not draft him. If you want to say there are more pressing needs, like WR or LB, fine. Selecting someone else over him just because he's a RB is a mistake, IMO. 

 

[pdaj]

Good discussion, everyone; it certainly made my late afternoon coffee taste better. 
 
I'm sold on Miller, as I think he's a good enough running back/playmaker in this offense. I'd love to add another RB, but late; or if we pick up a 3rd and a player like Abdullah slides, I'd be all for it. But I feel this team needs players at CB, G, LB, WR who can play NOW -- more so than an attempt at a HR swing for a RB who's had major surgery. Typically, with RB, there's value to be found later in the draft.
 
The Dolphin's are trading up. Wait, down. No, they want Gurley! They call it the silly portion of the season for a reason; everyone's sending out false info. I won't believe anything I read on twitter or in a blog this week.
 
The Dion Jordan news is just disgusting. What a fucking waste. 

 

[jsinger121]

Pats got Jamie Collins at 52 and Dion Jordan pretty much flames out at number 3.

 

[pdaj]

Pats got Jamie Collins at 52 and Dion Jordan pretty much flames out at number 3.

 
You sure know how to kick a man when he's down, haha. We could have had Lane Johnson!
 
I'll be curious when more "inside info" stars to get reported. There wasn't a defensive vet that could help light a fire under this guy's behind?
 
The way the Fins' karma has been going, he'll find his groove as soon as he leaves Miami.

 

[sodenj5]

 
You sure know how to kick a man when he's down, haha. We could have had Lane Johnson!
 
I'll be curious when more "inside info" stars to get reported. There wasn't a defensive vet that could help light a fire under this guy's behind?
 
The way the Fins' karma has been going, he'll find his groove as soon as he leaves Miami.

It seems like Wake took him under his wing a bit, but Wake isn't his babysitter. If he's doing drugs and getting suspended, that's on Jordan. It seems so odd because everyone was saying Jordan was a high character guy. I guess you can't always shake what's in your past as his mother had a long history of substance abuse.

I think he's squandering a huge amount of talent, but Miami has also ruined him by making him a DE. All the things he is awesome at go to waste as a DE and the elite athleticism, speed, and quickness have been lost because he's added about 20-25 lbs since his rookie year. Now, instead of a freak athletic OLB, they have a mediocre DE that's not strong enough to win with power or fast enough to win with speed. Jaimie Collins was drafted by a team that did a great job coaching him and putting him at the right position to succeed. Basically the total opposite of Miami.

I've also been thinking about Gurley, and how would Miami generating buzz about Gurley help them trade down? Wouldn't a team interested in Gurley now think they need to jump ahead of Miami? Definitely smells like a smokescreen and they really want someone Parker to drop to them.

 

[CouchsideSteve]

I realize this post is going to be in tl;dr territory for most people, but I got a bit carried away and enjoyed this trip down memory lane...
 

Isn't this all the more reason to draft RBs, since you get their best seasons (whereas if you sign vets you get the downside)?

 
Sure, but not in the first round. If I know RB attrition is among the highest of any position, I'm going to draft more less expensive assets (read: later round picks), and see what sticks.... which leads me to: 
 

The Patriots have used a fair amount of draft capital on RBs (1st in 2006, 2nd and 3rd in 2011), the Ravens used a second on Ray Rice and then paid him big money, the Packers used a 2nd on Eddie Lacy in 2013 and Denver used a 2nd on Montee Ball the same year, the Niners gave Gore a couple big contracts, etc. I don't see these teams as examples of what you're describing.

 
I don't agree with the characterization, but this point is fairly debatable. The teams I've cited have ridden young backs, recognized and moved on from sunk costs quickly, avoided Free Agency, and haven't taken a back earlier than 50th in the last 5 years. The teams that I think of as spending a lot of recent capital on RBs? Panthers, Bills, Colts, Browns, Cardinals, Saints & Steelers (although it's worked out pretty well for the latter two). 
 

Unless you're willing to do this for all positions, I'm not sure how valuable this analysis is. The Super Bowl last year was played between a sixth-rounder and a third-rounder; the leader in passer rating was undrafted; the leader in receptions and receiving yards was a sixth-round pick; the sack leader was a third-rounder; the two leaders in interceptions were a fourth-rounder and undrafted. I'm cherry-picking, but there are draft busts and low-round successes at every position. Is RB worse than other positions? Maybe, maybe not, but you need to contextualize these numbers to be sure.

 
I thought the numbers on RB were self-evidently bad, but your question piqued my interest. Here's the rest of the -- admittedly back of the napkin, shotgun style -- analysis. I've categorized mostly based on observation (I've watched football virtually every Sunday for my entire living memory), but used the AV score developed by Doug Drinen of Sports Reference as a way to check any observation bias and evaluate difficult to quantify positions (e.g., O-line). The positional attributions are courtesy of DraftHistory.com. There's obviously a lot to quibble with in terms of methodology, but again, I did this as much for my own personal edification as I did to prove a point. 
 
[SIZE=10.5pt]Quarterbacks[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Home Runs (5 of 40; 12.5%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Solid Producers (10 of 40; 25%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Chad Pennington, Mike Vick, Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Ryan Tannehill[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Lackluster (5 of 40; 12.5%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Byron Leftwich, Rex Grossman, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Mark Sanchez[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Busts (15 of 40; 37.5%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, J.P. Losman, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden, E.J. Manuel[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Jury's Out (5 of 40; 12.5%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Sam Bradford, RG III, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Observation: More stratification here than with RBs -- you're more likely to get a good QB than RB in Round 1, but the decision is far more consequential for a franchise, and cuts both ways (some huge organization setbacks listed above). On balance, equally "bad risk" in context, although you really can't get an elite QB anywhere but the draft (which is obviously not the case for RB).[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Wide Receievers[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Home Runs (10 of 57; 18%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]: Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Solid Producers (12 of 57; 21%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Plaxico Burress, Santana Moss, Javon Walker, Roy Williams, Santonio Holmes, Dwayne Bowe, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Hakeen Nicks, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans (the latter two could rise) [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Lackluster (15 of 57; 26%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Peter Warrick, Rod Gardner, Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, Bryant Johnson, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, Michael Jenkins, Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Mark Clayton, Robert Meachem, Anthony Gonzalez, Kenny Britt[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Busts (15 of 57; 26%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Travis Taylor, Sylvester Morris, R. Jay Soward, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Freddie Mitchell, Charles Rodgers, Reggie Evans, Matt Jones, Tedd Ginn (ugh), Craig Davis (who?), Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jon Baldwin, Justin Blackmon, A.J. Jenkins [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Jury's Out (5 of 57; 9%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Cordarelle Patterson, Brandon Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Observation: More even distribution than RBs; slightly more good players, slightly fewer busts. [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Tight Ends[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Home Runs (3 of 18; 17%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]: Vernon Davis, Heath Miller, Greg Olsen[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Solid Producers (6 of 18; 33%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Bubba Franks, Todd Heap, Jeremy Shockey, Dallas Clark, Kellen Winslow Jr., Ben Watson[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Lackluster (6 of 18; 33%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]  Anthony Becht, Daniel Graham, Marcedes Lewis, Dustin Keller, Brandon Pettigrew, Jermaine Gresham[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Busts (1 of 18; 6%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Jeramy Stevens[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Jury's Out (2 of 18; 11%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Tyler Eifert, Eric Ebron[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Observation: Too small of a sample to draw meaningful conclusions, but interesting that there's only been one resounding TE bust in the last ~15 drafts, depending on what you think of Eifert & Ebron's future.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Offensive Tackles[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Home Runs (6 of 53; 11%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]: Chris Samuels, Jordan Gross, D'Brickashawn Ferguson, Joe Thomas, Joe Staley, Ryan Clady, [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Solid Producers (12 of 53; 23%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Leonard Davis, Jeff Backus, Bryant McKinnie, Shawn Andrews (drafted as T, arguably belongs as G), Jammal Brown, Jake Long, Gosder Cherilus, Duane Brown, Trent Williams, Russell Okung, Nate Solder, Tyron Smith[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Lackluster (19 of 53; 36%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]  Stockar McDougle, Kenyatta Walker, Mike Williams, Levi Jones, Marc Colombo, George Foster, Kwame Harris, Alex Barron, Levi Brown, Sam Baker, Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe, Michael Oher, Anthony Davis, Bryan Bulaga, Anthony Castonzo, James Carpenter (moved inside), Matt Kalil, Riley Reiff     [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Busts (7 of 53; 13%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Chris McIntosh, Robert Gallery, Chris Williams, Jeff Otah, Jason Smith, Gabe Carimi, Derek Sherrod   [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Jury's Out (9 of 53; 17%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson, D.J. Fluker, Justin Pugh, Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews, Taylor Lewan, Ja'Wuan James (early returns on these guys as a group aren't great)  [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Observation: A lot to unpack here, as it's difficult to empirically evaluate a lineman. Not very many abject busts, since you can typically salvage the pick by moving a college LT to RT or G, and expect reasonably solid returns. [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Guards/Centers[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Home Runs (5 of 22; 23%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]: Steve Hutchinson, Logan Mankins, Nick Mangold, Mike Iupati, Maurkice Pouncey  [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Solid Producers (9 of 22; 41%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Kendall Simmons, Jeff Faine, Vernon Carey (drafted as G, played a lot of RT, too), Davin Joseph, Ben Grubbs, Brandon Albert, Alex Mack, Mike Pouncey, Zack Martin[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Lackluster (3 of 22; 14%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE] [SIZE=10pt]Chris Spencer, Eric Wood, David DeCastro[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Busts (2 of 22; 9%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Kevin Zeitler, Jonathan Cooper [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Jury's Out (3 of 22; 14%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Chance Warmack, Kyle Long, Travis Frederick[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Observation: SSS aside, relatively few interior offensive lineman have flamed out in the past 15 drafts.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Defensive Ends[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Home Runs (10 of 63; 16%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]: Justin Smith, Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Kevin Williams, Terrell Suggs, Demarcus Ware, Mario Williams, Tamba Hali, J.J. Watt, Robert Quinn, [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Solid Producers (16 of 63; 25%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Shaun Ellis, Andre Carter, Ryan Pickett, Bryan Thomas, Charles Grant, Calvin Pace, Will Smith, Jason Babin, Anthony Spencer, Chris Long, Jason Pierre-Paul, Aldon Smith, Cameron Jordan, Bruce Irvin, Channdler Jones, Ziggy Ansah,        [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Lackluster (13 of 63; 21%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]: [/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]Tyler Brayton, Marcus Spears, Mathias Kiwanuka, Adam Carriker, Tyson Jackson, Robert Ayers, Tyson Alualu (mostly DT), Derrick Morgan, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward, Quinton Coples, Shea McClellin, Whitney Mercilus,           [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Busts (20 of 63; 32%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Courtney Brown, Erik Flowers, Jamal Reynolds, Michael Haynes, Jerome McDougle, Kenechi Udeze, Erasmus James, David Pollack, Gaines Adams (RIP), Jamaal Anderson, Jarvis Moss, Vernon Gholston, Derrick Harvey, Lawrence Jackson, Aaron Maybin, Melvin Ingram, Nick Perry, Dion Jordan, Bjoern Werner, Datone Jones         [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Jury's Out (4 of 63; 6%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Barkevious Mingo, Jadeveon Clowney, Dee Ford, Marcus Smith [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Observation: Drafting a pass rusher is feast or famine, and you find out about these guys pretty quickly. [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Defensive Tackles[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Home Runs (6 of 51; 12%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]: Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Haloti Ngata, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Aaron Donald   [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Solid Producers (22 of 51; 43%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Corey Simon, Chris Hovan, Gerard Warren, Marcus Stroud, Casey Hampton, John Henderson, Albert Haynesworth, Ty Warren, Tommie Harris, Glenn Dorsey, Luis Castillo, Mike Patterson, Brodrick Bunkley, B.J. Raji, Marcell Dareus, Jared Odrick, Nick Fairley, Corey Liuget, Muhammad Wilkerson, Donatri Poe, Fletcher Cox, Sheldon Richardson                   [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Lackluster (12 of 51; 24%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]: [/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]Damione Lewis, Ryan Sims, Dewayne Robertson, Jimmy Kennedy, Travis Johnson, Amobi Okoye, Sedrick Ellis, Ziggy Hood, Dan Williams, Phil Taylor, Michael Brockers, Sylvester Williams             [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Busts (8 of 51; 16%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Wendell Bryant, Johnathan Sullivan, William Joseph, Marcus Tubbs, John McCargo, Justin Harrell, Kentwan Balmer, Peria Jerry       [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Jury's Out (3 of 51; 6%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Star Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd, Dominique Easley[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Observation: The big guys appear to be really good Round 1 investments, on the whole. [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Linebackers[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Home Runs (8 of 44; 18%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]: Brian Urlacher, John Abraham, Shawne Merriman, Derrick Johnson, Patrick Willis, Clay Matthews, Von Miller, Luke Kuechly      [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Solid Producers (19 of 44; 43%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Julian Peterson, Keith Bulluck, Dan Morgan, Nick Barnett, Jonathan Vilma, D.J. Williams, A.J. Hawk, Kamerion Wimbley, Chad Greenway, Manny Lawson, Lawrence Timmons, Jon Beason, Jerod Mayo, Brian Orakpo, Brian Cushing, Jerry Hughes, Ryan Kerrigan, Dont'a Hightower, C.J. Mosley               [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Lackluster (7 of 44; 16%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]: [/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]LaVar Arrington, Rob Morris, Napoleon Harris, Robert Thomas, Keith Rivers, Rolando McClain, Sean Weatherspoon       [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Busts (6 of 44; 14%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Ernie Sims, Bobby Carpenter, Aaron Curry, Larry English, Brandon Graham, Jarvis Jones     [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Jury's Out (4 of 44; 9%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Alec Ogletree, Khalil Mack, Anthony Barr, Ryan Shazier[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Observation: Returns on LBs have been excellent in recent history. [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Defensive Backs[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Home Runs (8 of 81; 10%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]: Deltha O'Neal, Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Johnathan Joseph, Darelle Revis, Earl Thomas, Devin McCourty, Patrick Peterson, [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Solid Producers (30 of 81; 37%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]  Nate Celments, Adam Archuleta, Will Allen, Roy Williams, Lito Sheppard, Quentin Jammer, Terrence Newman, Marcus Trufant, Sean Taylor, DeAngeo Hall, Dunta Robinson, Chris Gamble, Antrel Rolle, Carlos Rodgers, Donte Whitner, Antonio Cromartie, LaRon Landry, Leon Hall, Michael Griffin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Aqib Talib, Malcolm Jenkins, Vontae Davis, Eric Berry, Joe Haden, Kareem Jackson, Prince Amukamara, Jimmy Smith, Harrison Smith, Eric Reid [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Lackluster (18 of 81; 22%)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]  Ahmed Plummer, Jamar Fletcher, Philip Buchanon, Pacman Jones, Fabian Washington, Michael Huff, Brandon Meriweather, Aaron Ross, Ledois McKelvin, Antoine Cason, Mike Jenkins, Kenny Phillips, Kyle Wilson, Patrick Robinson, Morris Cliborne, Mark Barron, Dre Kirkpartrick, Kenny Vaccaro[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Busts (10 of 81; 12%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Rashard Anderson, Derrick Gibson, Mike Rumph, Andre Woolfork, Sammy Davis, Ahmad Carroll, Marlin Jackson, Tye Hill, Jason Allen (ugh), Kelly Jennings [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Jury's Out (15 of 18; 19%):[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Stephon Gilmore, Dee Miliner, D.J. Hayden, Desmond Trufant, Xavier Rhodes, Matt Elam, Justin Gilbert, Kyle Fuller, Calvin Pryor, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Darqueze Dennard, Jason Verrett, Deon Bucannon, Jimmie Ward, Bradley Roby  [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Observation: Relatively solid returns compared to other positions, but seems like even mediocre players are given a really long leash. Huge draft classes over the last two years with few likely star players, so in hindsight, these figures could soon look bleaker.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=13.3333330154419px]SUMMARY[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10pt]Most likely to hit HR or Solid Producer:[/SIZE]

1. [SIZE=10pt]Guards/Centers (64%)[/SIZE]
2. [SIZE=10pt]Linebackers (61%)[/SIZE]
3. [SIZE=10pt]Defensive Tackles (55%)[/SIZE]
4. [SIZE=10pt]Tight Ends (50%)[/SIZE]
5. [SIZE=10pt]Defensive Backs (47%)[/SIZE]
6. [SIZE=10pt]Offensive Tackles (44%)[/SIZE]
7. [SIZE=10pt]Defensive Ends (41%)[/SIZE]
8. [SIZE=10pt]Wide Receivers (39%)[/SIZE]
9. [SIZE=10pt]Quarterbacks (38%)[/SIZE]
10. [SIZE=10pt]Running Backs (36%)[/SIZE]

 
[SIZE=10pt]Most likely to Bust:[/SIZE]

1. [SIZE=10pt]Quarterbacks! (38%)[/SIZE]
2. [SIZE=10pt]Defensive Ends (32%)[/SIZE]
3. [SIZE=10pt]Running Backs (29%)[/SIZE]
4. [SIZE=10pt]Wide Receivers (26%)[/SIZE]
5. [SIZE=10pt]Defensive Tackles (16%)[/SIZE]
6. [SIZE=10pt]Linebackers (14%)[/SIZE]
7. [SIZE=10pt]Offensive Tackles (13%)[/SIZE]
8. [SIZE=10pt]Defensive Backs (12%)[/SIZE]
9. [SIZE=10pt]Guards/Centers (9%)[/SIZE]
10. [SIZE=10pt]Tight Ends (6%)[/SIZE]

 

[CouchsideSteve]

Alright, sorry for dropping a novel into this thread... 
 
We could go back and forth on debating the merits of Gurley as a player himself, but I think I can say with some reasonable certainty that 1st round running backs as a group, have been relatively poor investments over the last 15 drafts. Look no further than the last two drafts as evidence of NFL teams coming to that realization as well. This isn't ground-breaking stuff, but I was honestly surprised at just how spotty the track-record is. 
 
Now, if you grant that Gurley (or any other back for that matter) is a generational talent, then of course it makes sense to take them in the first round. My counter to that argument for this particular instance is that: 1) I'm not sure Gurley is, in fact, that caliber of player; 2) ACL injuries are risky business; 3) The Dolphins have other holes; 4) I would always discount the value of a RB to a certain degree based on the shorter shelf life for the position as a whole, relative to other skill positions.
 
Anyway, this all has me really, really excited for this year's draft. Tons of intrigue...

 

[Super Nomario]

Alright, sorry for dropping a novel into this thread... 

I think it's great, and really interesting, though it should be probably be split out to its own topic (and possibly combined with some similar discussion that's going on in the OL thread). Obviously I have some quibbles (how does Zach Martin get a solid producer after one season but Travis Frederick is still "jury's out") but we'd probably be plus or minus 10 percentage points on these.
 

We could go back and forth on debating the merits of Gurley as a player himself, but I think I can say with some reasonable certainty that 1st round running backs as a group, have been relatively poor investments over the last 15 drafts. Look no further than the last two drafts as evidence of NFL teams coming to that realization as well. This isn't ground-breaking stuff, but I was honestly surprised at just how spotty the track-record is. 

I think this is true, but I think the league devaluing RBs has also changed the draft calculus. As the league has become more pass-happy, RB has become less of a premium position, but it took time for the league to catch up. RBs were overdrafted relative to their value until recently, and your analysis reflects that. Are they still being overdrafted? I'm not sure. Pittsburgh (Bell), Green Bay (Lacy), and Cincinnati (Hill and Bernard) arguably got first-round value out of second-round picks. Of course, we've continued to see busts, too. I think a decade ago Gurley and Gordon would have been consensus top-10 picks; now they're being talked about as mid-to-late first-rounders.
 
Your positional analysis (and the discussion in the OL thread) makes pretty clear that the more premium the position, the higher the bust rate (relative to draft status), and the less premium, the less busty. Which makes sense. You'd take a QB in the first round that was a 50/50 proposition because the upside is so high, but you would never take a guard in the first round that was 50/50. Historically RB was considered premium and the risk profile you describe reflects that; it is no longer clear to me that the position is premium, and it is no longer clear to me that teams treat it as if it is. Obviously, there is some variation, even among smart teams - Seattle has made RB a big priority, and it has worked well for them.

 

[CouchsideSteve]

Your positional analysis (and the discussion in the OL thread) makes pretty clear that the more premium the position, the higher the bust rate (relative to draft status), and the less premium, the less busty. Which makes sense. You'd take a QB in the first round that was a 50/50 proposition because the upside is so high, but you would never take a guard in the first round that was 50/50. Historically RB was considered premium and the risk profile you describe reflects that; it is no longer clear to me that the position is premium, and it is no longer clear to me that teams treat it as if it is. Obviously, there is some variation, even among smart teams - Seattle has made RB a big priority, and it has worked well for them.

 
This is a really concise and insightful way to frame it -- captures the upshot perfectly. 
 
Thanks for encouraging me to dig a little deeper here.  

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

@RapSheet
#Dolphins DE Dion Jordan is facing a year-long suspension for another violation of @nfl’s substance abuse policy (as @AdamSchefter said)

 

[jsinger121]

 

Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter  21s21 seconds ago
Dion Jordan will not appeal his suspension. It stands. Out all of 2015.
 

 

[RedOctober3829]

Schefter also says Eagles and Dolphins were near a trade for Jordan.  Crazy turn of events with this guy.  From #3 pick to total bust.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Jordan for gattis maybe...lol
 
the good news is that his salary doesn't count against the cap!!  It's been made pretty obvious by the FO comments that they did not expect to have Jordan on the team this year. The last Jeff Ireland turd flushed

 

[sodenj5]

Holy shit. What a massive waste of talent and ability. Unreal.
 
I suppose that puts Miami in the market for a DE/OLB, but with Wake and Vernon entrenched as starters and Fede and Shelby as solid backups, I'd say it's not an immediate need as Miami still has Chris McCain who is a similar player to what Jordan was and can be developed as either an OLB or DE. Guys like Gregory and Ray seem like they are going to see their stock drop, but my guess is Miami goes nowhere near them after this debacle. Have to wonder if the front office knew what was coming and that's why they've been sidestepping all Jordan questions or if it was just because they were trying to orchestrate a trade.
 
Edit: Sun-Sentinel seems to believe Miami was well aware of this weeks ago.
 

 
This latest incident happened weeks ago and was well-known within the Dolphins facility, a source told the Sun Sentinel. It led to Jordan deciding not to practice with the team for voluntary offseason workouts even though he could have continued practicing under league rules.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-dolphins/sfl-report-dolphins-dion-jordan-suspended-for-entire-2015-season-20150428-story.html
 
It just goes to show you what a crapshoot the draft is. Olivier Vernon was drafted in the third round the year before Jordan.

 

[sodenj5]

Looking back on Jordan, and the decision to draft him, and how he was handled, it's about as damning as any season's record in terms of how poorly this team has been run.

They move up to select a guy that wasn't a fit for their defensive scheme, and instead of trying to utilize him at his natural position and get something out of him, they stubbornly continue to try and force a square peg into a round hole. I'm not trying to suggest Jordan should receive any slack for his three suspensions, but this coaching staff should receive just as much blame for his failures on the field and not putting him in a position to succeed.

 

[Red PR]

Looking back on Jordan, and the decision to draft him, and how he was handled, it's about as damning as any season's record in terms of how poorly this team has been run.

They move up to select a guy that wasn't a fit for their defensive scheme, and instead of trying to utilize him at his natural position and get something out of him, they stubbornly continue to try and force a square peg into a round hole. I'm not trying to suggest Jordan should receive any slack for his three suspensions, but this coaching staff should receive just as much blame for his failures on the field and not putting him in a position to succeed.

 
I agree, he wanted to play as LB and coaching staff stubbornly told him to rush the QB. This is why this team is 8-8 good players mediocre coaching. equals perennial 6-8 win team. I honestly cant wait till Philbin is fired. (Id also love a new owner to take over this team).
 
I have to have hope if not the NFL season will not be as much fun but this team has been like this since the beginning of this century.

 

[Shelterdog]

I just took a look back at that 2013 draft first round. There were a whole lot of swings and misses in the first 20 picks.

 
Oh weird and the Pats trade back and get a ton of contributors. 
 
It's also funny that some of the most reviled picks-Fredricks and Kyle Long--are some of the most successful.

 

[smastroyin]

Yeah, it's one thing if they had the pick and instead of trading down took a shot and missed.  They traded up in a sketchy draft to get their guy and he has been useless and was always going to be useless in their scheme without a significant change to his playing style.

 

[sodenj5]

 
Oh weird and the Pats trade back and get a ton of contributors. 
 
It's also funny that some of the most reviled picks-Fredricks and Kyle Long--are some of the most successful.

The 2013 draft was noted as being really thin at the top in terms of elite talent, but very deep in terms of quality players. Miami gambled on taking one of the few elite talents available and proceeded to handle him as poorly as possible, and New England went the other way, playing more to the strength of the draft.

I applauded Miami for being bold and moving up for relatively cheap with the Raiders, but they screwed it up as badly as they could have from that point forward.

 

[pdaj]

Looking back on Jordan, and the decision to draft him, and how he was handled, it's about as damning as any season's record in terms of how poorly this team has been run.

They move up to select a guy that wasn't a fit for their defensive scheme, and instead of trying to utilize him at his natural position and get something out of him, they stubbornly continue to try and force a square peg into a round hole. I'm not trying to suggest Jordan should receive any slack for his three suspensions, but this coaching staff should receive just as much blame for his failures on the field and not putting him in a position to succeed.

 

Yeah, it's one thing if they had the pick and instead of trading down took a shot and missed.  They traded up in a sketchy draft to get their guy and he has been useless and was always going to be useless in their scheme without a significant change to his playing style.

 
The top-to-bottom miscommunication and poor collaboration has hopefully come to an end with the new hierarchy in place.

 

[sodenj5]

Dolphins apparently pull the trigger on Tannehill's fifth year option.

https://twitter.com/profootballtalk/status/593573311990394885

 

[pdaj]

Any predictions for tonight, fellas? I'm going with the Gurley rumors as being a smokescreen. 
 
Here's my guess of the Top 3 possible options:
 
1) Trade up for Parker.
 
2) Parker slips to 14; if not, draft Trae or Johnson.
 
3) Possible trade down; draft Johnson, Perriman, or Collins.

 

[sodenj5]

Any predictions for tonight, fellas? I'm going with the Gurley rumors as being a smokescreen. 
 
Here's my guess of the Top 3 possible options:
 
1) Trade up for Parker.
 
2) Parker slips to 14; if not, draft Trae or Johnson.
 
3) Possible trade down; draft Johnson, Perriman, or Collins.

https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/593840043019673600

https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/593840043019673600

link to tweet

I think Parker is the guy they want, but if he's gone and they can't trade up, they pull the trigger on Gurley at 14 if he's there. If both are gone, I think they trade back and take a LB or CB.

 

[Red PR]

Id really like if they chose Gurley. If not trade down and go for depth.

 

[pdaj]

There is no Revis in this draft -- hope a quality player that fits a need falls to us. Gurley going top 10 would help!

 

[sodenj5]

It's shaping up like both Parker and Gurley might be there...

 

[Super Nomario]

It's shaping up like both Parker and Gurley might be there...

Ummm

 

[pdaj]

Stills-Jennings-Landry-Parker-Cameron.
 
I'm happy.

 

[rymflaherty]

Everything I'm seeing and reading suggests that Parker provides the QB with a wider margin of error.
Should be a big benefit to Tannehill, especially (hopefully) in the Red Zone and on the deep balls.

 

[pdaj]

http://grantland.com/features/2015-nfl-draft-wide-receiver-rankings-kevin-white-amari-cooper-devante-parker-dorial-green-beckham/
 

DeVante Parker
 
Though Parker is by no means a perfect prospect, he still might be underrated. He was Teddy Bridgewater’s favorite target during their joint Louisville days, and last season, Parker returned from the injury that cost him the first half of the season and ripped off five 100-yard receiving performances in six games despite occasionally woeful quarterback play.
 
Athleticism: Parker doesn’t quite warrant the “freak” label like White, but at 6-3, 209 pounds, he’s a unique athlete with pSPARQ scores in the 76th percentile and a well-rounded athletic web.
 
Where he wins: Though he’s not particularly polished, Parker is built like a classic do-everything wideout. If he properly develops, he should be able to win everywhere on the field, whether by banging with the big bodies against zones or beating corners in press-man. He’s pretty good after the catch, too.
 
Weaknesses: Parker isn’t a blazer, and in addition to concerns about his pure speed, his biggest issues are technique and refinement. Parker relies on his natural ability as much as any receiver in the draft, but he’ll have to become far more precise with his releases and routes in the NFL.
 
Bottom line: Parker isn’t as graceful or as sure-handed as Beckham, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he matches ODB’s feat of delivering a better rookie year than the guys picked ahead of him.

 
http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2015/insider/story/_/id/12792762/2015-nfl-draft-mel-kiper-runs-winners-questions-first-day-picks
 

I really liked the idea of DeVante Parker to Minnesota at No. 11, and I think the Dolphins had to be tickled to see him not only get past No. 11, but then also fall past Cleveland at No. 12. I've made the A.J. Green comparison before, and while that's a bit lofty, I do think based on body type, athleticism and catch radius -- as well as surprising juice after the catch -- he was exactly what the Dolphins needed to help Ryan Tannehill.