2015 Jets: Back on Track

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Ed Hillel

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Shelterdog said:
I've got to say I'm excited for this season.
 
I listen to the Jets Kingdom podcast and they're hyped for this season.  They are convinced that this will be the best Jets offense in at least six years.  (Essentially Gailey has a system that's close to unstoppable with a smart quarterback because it always gets one on one matchups somewhere and since Fitzy is so smart he'll recognize those matchups, plus the oline is great and the running attack is great).
 
I wonder if these guys remember the "close to unstoppable" Bills offense of 2010-2012.
 

gtg807y

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
I wonder if these guys remember the "close to unstoppable" Bills offense of 2010-2012.
 
Or the Georgia Tech teams that lost five games every year with Gailey as the coach, most of those with Calvin Johnson.
 

jon abbey

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Could losing Cromartie be addition by subtraction? Not that you want to lose anyone but he looked bad in camp, got beaten badly early on today, and Marcus Williams made some nice plays filling in today.
 

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jon abbey said:
Could losing Cromartie be addition by subtraction? Not that you want to lose anyone but he looked bad in camp, got beaten badly early on today, and Marcus Williams made some nice plays filling in today.
Who is behind Williams? Because that guy just moved up a slot, and unless he's worse than Cro, he's a net negative who will now get found against good teams.
 

jon abbey

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I'm not such a serious fan, but I guess Skrine moves into Cromartie's spot and Williams is the new nickel guy. Bowles said:
 
“It would be a blow (to lose Cromartie) because he’s a good player,” head coach Todd Bowles said. “We brought him in here to be a good player. We’ve got a lot of young guys that play behind him. We’ve got good corners, that’s one of our most deepest positions. We’ve got Buster (Skrine), we’ve got Marcus (Williams), we’ve got (Darrin) Walls, we’ve got (Dexter) McDougle and then we’ve got Dee (Milliner) coming back in a little while, so we’ve got guys in the building that can go out and play.”
 
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/injured-jets-cb-antonio-cromartie-carted-field-article-1.2358815
 

SeoulSoxFan

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jon abbey said:
I'm not such a serious fan, but I guess Skrine moves into Cromartie's spot and Williams is the new nickel guy. Bowles said:
 
“It would be a blow (to lose Cromartie) because he’s a good player,” head coach Todd Bowles said. “We brought him in here to be a good player. We’ve got a lot of young guys that play behind him. We’ve got good corners, that’s one of our most deepest positions. We’ve got Buster (Skrine), we’ve got Marcus (Williams), we’ve got (Darrin) Walls, we’ve got (Dexter) McDougle and then we’ve got Dee (Milliner) coming back in a little while, so we’ve got guys in the building that can go out and play.”
 
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/injured-jets-cb-antonio-cromartie-carted-field-article-1.2358815
 
Skrine and Williams are more similar than not. Williams played well today but not sure if he can keep up with an average #2. 
 
Skrine on the other hand, gives up about 1 catch every 7.5 opportunities in the slot. That's in the Sterling Moore & Ron McClain territory. He's not much better outside, giving up a catch in 8.9 opportunities, which is in the Logan Ryan/William Gay category. 
 
Cro can be burnt by certain types of receivers, but also lock down others. I thought Bowles would get the most out of him after reviving his career at Arizona. This seems like a real loss for the Jets. 
 

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
I wonder if these guys remember the "close to unstoppable" Bills offense of 2010-2012.
 
They did which was why it's such a charming listen.  They acknowledged that the Bills games might be tough because Rex was able to slow down the Gailey offense, but really, that's to be expected because Rex is so good, and the Bills games will be easy for the Jets because the Bills don't have a good QB.  
 
 
They think the Jets go 10-6 or 9-7 this year (one thinks Geno comes in at QB, one thinks Fitz goes 10-6 and keeps the job) so they're nothing if not optimistic. 
 

bankshot1

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the D is legit-opportunistic and made Luck look ordinary (make hurried decisions)
 
Fitzy is a game manager and if they develop a more consistent running game they will be a pain in the ass.
 

Silverdude2167

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bankshot1 said:
bump
 
the D is legit-opportunistic and made Luck look ordinary (make hurried decisions)
 
Fitzy is a game manager and if they develop a more consistent running game they will be a pain in the ass.
6 fumbles "forced", 6 fumbles recovered, with two of those fumbles on their 1-yard line. How good will this D be when they face teams that protect the ball better (Possibly every team in the league they have not faced)?
 
edit: Spelling
 

loshjott

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Silverdude2167 said:
6 fumbles "forced", 6 fumbles recovered, with two of those fumbles on their 1-yard line. How good with this D be when they face teams that protect the ball better (Possibly every team in the league they have not faced)?
 
Clearly those teams cheat.
 

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As a Pats fan I'm getting worried that Bowles is going to be a great coach.  He's been a pretty good defensive coach and he just has a nice demeanor to him that I bet players are going to love.   He's sort of Rex without the bombast. 
 

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Shelterdog said:
As a Pats fan I'm getting worried that Bowles is going to be a great coach.  He's been a pretty good defensive coach and he just has a nice demeanor to him that I bet players are going to love.   He's sort of Rex without the bombast. 
 
It's pretty shocking to see professionalism and competence coming from that org. Big changes indeed. Bowles seems to be pretty damn good.
 

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
 
It's pretty shocking to see professionalism and competence coming from that org. Big changes indeed. Bowles seems to be pretty damn good.
They still have Chan Gailey as the OC and Geno/Fitzy at QB.  Great defense, mediocre offense.  Sounds exactly like a Rex-coached team.
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
They still have Chan Gailey as the OC and Geno/Fitzy at QB.  Great defense, mediocre offense.  Sounds exactly like a Rex-coached team.
 
But they won't have the infantile inability to control their emotions that's the hallmark of every Rex-coached team. Bowles actually comes across like an adult.
 

RedOctober3829

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
 
But they won't have the infantile inability to control their emotions that's the hallmark of every Rex-coached team. Bowles actually comes across like an adult.
No, they wont.  But my emotions whenver Cromartie is on Edelman will be hard to contain as well.
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
They still have Chan Gailey as the OC and Geno/Fitzy at QB.  Great defense, mediocre offense.  Sounds exactly like a Rex-coached team.
 
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
But they won't have the infantile inability to control their emotions that's the hallmark of every Rex-coached team. Bowles actually comes across like an adult.
 
Not that these Jets are the 2nd coming of the 2000 Ravens but having a Dilfer-type holding a clipboard on the field for the offense and relying heavily on their defense is another echo in the early going.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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RedOctober3829 said:
No, they wont.  But my emotions whenver Cromartie is on Edelman will be hard to contain as well.
 
It will be interesting to see how Cromartie's knee holds up this season after his scare in week 1. He'd be a big loss if he gets hurt again, he played really well last night. 
 

Stitch01

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They still need a better caretaker at QB to get anything serious done.  Fitzie is too turnover prone over the course of a full season for the game manager role this team  needs on offense.
 

DJnVa

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Yeah--with all that the Colts did bad last night, that was still a game deep into the 4th quarter.
 

Soxy

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The defense is going to keep this team in a lot of games they would otherwise have no business winning, but I'm not sure the offense is good enough. You're talking about a Colts D that was down to their 4th, 5th, and 6th string corners. And they aren't even a good D to begin with.

It's good for the Jets that they don't exactly have a murderers row of tough offenses on their schedule to worry about, but I think they're going to struggle to score points without continued turnover luck. Why Luck continued to throw at Revis, I have no idea. I've always thought Luck was somewhat overrated because he turns the ball over way too much, but I'm beginning to wonder if he's just not very bright.
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
He's very good, but is also very conservative.  I hope they ground and pound it vs. the Patriots.
I don't - the run defense has looked awful shaky in the early going. The Pats are allowing 5.7 yards per carry, dead last in the NFL, and 147 rush yards per game, tied for fourth-worst. The pass D hasn't been a lot better, but at least they're getting sacks (11, 1st in the NFL) and picks (4, tied for 1st).
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
He's very good, but is also very conservative.  I hope they ground and pound it vs. the Patriots.
 
Gailey's last four offenses (2008 KC, 2010-12 BUF) in rush attempts:  29, 25, 27, 13. Those were bad teams that were generally behind but I wouldn't call him conservative. 
 

E5 Yaz

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QB consistency remains the central issue; but there's reason to be more wary of this Jets team than any over the past few seasons. Disregarding their apparent improvement because of dislike/disrespect for the franchise historically is a mistake.
 

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Jets OL was shaky last night and depth is problem almost everywhere. Injuries would exact a huge toll on the team. That said, QB is their biggest problem as Fitz ain't no 2000 Dilfer. Fitz loves to throw into double coverage and versus the greatest corners in the league. He's a ticking time bomb.
 
Also, how long does a real adult like Bowles last in this infantile organization? Do they push him out after year 2 or year 3?
 
EDIT: If you watched the game closely last night, it's almost like Fitz believes he's a top-7 QB. That's the problem, here.
 

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riboflav said:
Jets OL was shaky last night and depth is problem almost everywhere. Injuries would exact a huge toll on the team. That said, QB is their biggest problem as Fitz ain't no 2000 Dilfer. Fitz loves to throw into double coverage and versus the greatest corners in the league. He's a ticking time bomb.
 
Also, how long does a real adult like Bowles last in this infantile organization? Do they push him out after year 2 or year 3?
 
EDIT: If you watched the game closely last night, it's almost like Fitz believes he's a top-7 QB. That's the problem, here.
 
 
I don't get your critique of Fitz here. I see a guy that is running an offense he knows to the best of his ability. I rather that than have him play scared. I don't expect him to become an all pro anytime soon.
 

riboflav

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luckiestman said:
 
 
I don't get your critique of Fitz here. I see a guy that is running an offense he knows to the best of his ability. I rather that than have him play scared. I don't expect him to become an all pro anytime soon.
 
It was all those ill-advised forced throws into double coverage. He legitimately was on the verge of throwing five interceptions. This has always been his problem.
 
With your defense and running game, maybe you do want some more humility (or fear) out of Fitz. 
 

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riboflav said:
Jets OL was shaky last night and depth is problem almost everywhere. Injuries would exact a huge toll on the team. That said, QB is their biggest problem as Fitz ain't no 2000 Dilfer. Fitz loves to throw into double coverage and versus the greatest corners in the league. He's a ticking time bomb.
 
Also, how long does a real adult like Bowles last in this infantile organization? Do they push him out after year 2 or year 3?
 
EDIT: If you watched the game closely last night, it's almost like Fitz believes he's a top-7 QB. That's the problem, here.
I'm not trying to pick on you in particular, but the 2000 Dilfer thing really sticks in my craw whenever it comes up. Dilfer was a garbage quarterback who won a Super Bowl clinging to the coat tails of a historically great defense. He had a grand total of 35(!) completions in 4 playoff games [sorry--wrong]. That he was a non-factor is probably the best thing you can say about him. Fitzpatrick, warts and all, is a much better player.

Edit: Screwed up. He had 3TD and 1INT in four games in 2000.
 

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MarcSullivaFan said:
I'm not trying to pick on you in particular, but the 2000 Dilfer thing really sticks in my craw whenever it comes up. Dilfer was a garbage quarterback who won a Super Bowl clinging to the coat tails of a historically great defense. He had a grand total of 35(!) completions in 4 playoff games [sorry--wrong]. That he was a non-factor is probably the best thing you can say about him. Fitzpatrick, warts and all, is a much better player.

Edit: Screwed up. He had 3TD and 1INT in four games in 2000.
Why do you think Fitzpatrick is a much better player? His superficial stats are superior but he plays in a much better passing environment. Dilfer was pretty much an average quarterback from ages 25-33; his career numbers are dragged down by having to start at ages 22-24 (when he had a putrid 17 TD / 43 INT ratio) and a handful of starts at age 35. Fitzpatrick had just 3 starts before 26 and is 33 now; his 25-33 numbers are worse than Dilfer's, adjusting for era.
 
I think they're pretty comparable mediocrities, to be honest.
 

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Super Nomario said:
I don't - the run defense has looked awful shaky in the early going. The Pats are allowing 5.7 yards per carry, dead last in the NFL, and 147 rush yards per game, tied for fourth-worst. The pass D hasn't been a lot better, but at least they're getting sacks (11, 1st in the NFL) and picks (4, tied for 1st).
Their run defense will get better as the year goes on as I think BB will address this and bring in another run stuffing DT.  As far as I'm concerned, the Jets can't beat the Patriots on the ground.  The less somebody passes against this secondary, the better in my opinion.
 

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Super Nomario said:
Why do you think Fitzpatrick is a much better player? His superficial stats are superior but he plays in a much better passing environment. Dilfer was pretty much an average quarterback from ages 25-33; his career numbers are dragged down by having to start at ages 22-24 (when he had a putrid 17 TD / 43 INT ratio) and a handful of starts at age 35. Fitzpatrick had just 3 starts before 26 and is 33 now; his 25-33 numbers are worse than Dilfer's, adjusting for era.
 
I think they're pretty comparable mediocrities, to be honest.
Well, shucks. I stand corrected as to Fitzpatrick's superiority.

That said, my larger point is that Dilfer's greatest accomplishment in 2000 was not singlehandedly losing playoff games in which he was asked to do next to nothing. I am confident that Fitzpatrick and plenty of other mediocre quarterbacks would be up to the task, assuming they also had an insanely good defense to lean on.
 

Super Nomario

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RedOctober3829 said:
Their run defense will get better as the year goes on as I think BB will address this and bring in another run stuffing DT.  As far as I'm concerned, the Jets can't beat the Patriots on the ground.  The less somebody passes against this secondary, the better in my opinion.
I think you're unfairly down on a secondary which, "Badley" Fletcher aside, has been OK, and unreasonably up on an interior DL that's looked putrid so far and frankly doesn't have much proven talent. I mean, we all liked the Malcom Brown pick, but he's a lot less established than Tarell Brown is.
 
It's tough to beat anyone on the ground, but the Jets made a good go of it in Foxboro last year with 218 yards en route to 25 points in perhaps the defense's worst performance all season. That shortened the game, too, which is a danger for the superior team - a game where each team only gets eight or nine possessions and the Pats screw one or two up with a turnover or mistake is a recipe for an upset. The run D is less of an issue if the Pats get out in front (which has happened the last two weeks), but it could be a problem if they let a team hang around.
 

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Super Nomario said:
I think you're unfairly down on a secondary which, "Badley" Fletcher aside, has been OK, and unreasonably up on an interior DL that's looked putrid so far and frankly doesn't have much proven talent. I mean, we all liked the Malcom Brown pick, but he's a lot less established than Tarell Brown is.
 
It's tough to beat anyone on the ground, but the Jets made a good go of it in Foxboro last year with 218 yards en route to 25 points in perhaps the defense's worst performance all season. That shortened the game, too, which is a danger for the superior team - a game where each team only gets eight or nine possessions and the Pats screw one or two up with a turnover or mistake is a recipe for an upset. The run D is less of an issue if the Pats get out in front (which has happened the last two weeks), but it could be a problem if they let a team hang around.
Do we know what Siliga's off-season surgery was?  He hasn't been great against the run or the double-team yet but my impression is that he was better at just this aspect of the game in years past?  Is there any reasonable expectation that he's going to get better.  Additionally, It is my impression that it's easier to find a one-dimensional run suffer to play in passing downs than it is to find a competent CB to play in nickel D -- perhaps that is off base.  They did just this with Siliga of all people two seasons ago where as fixing CB has required big moves.  I wonder if they're hoping Coleman can be the #3 come the end of the year.  
 
It also seems in the small sample size where I've been able to diagnose what went wrong on a running play that whenever there's been a big run it's been 
1) Nink/Jones not setting the edge -- this seems like an anomaly not likely to last, and if it does I expect Sheard to just get more playing time because he's been a beast against the run to my eye
or
2) Collins/Mayo hitting the wrong gap.  Clearly it's better if guys up front win their battles and there is no gap but I'm hoping this is just early season rust for the LBs.
 
Mayo has also looked slow/poor to me and my expectation is that he will get better.  Too bad Spikes hit the deer.
 
Having said all that, Kyed and Bruschi also expressed significant concern about the run game.  So, your point compounded by their agreement is duly noted.  Also agree about T. Brown > M. Brown.  My concern at secondary comes down to nickel corner and depth.
 

riboflav

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MarcSullivaFan said:
I'm not trying to pick on you in particular, but the 2000 Dilfer thing really sticks in my craw whenever it comes up. Dilfer was a garbage quarterback who won a Super Bowl clinging to the coat tails of a historically great defense. He had a grand total of 35(!) completions in 4 playoff games [sorry--wrong]. That he was a non-factor is probably the best thing you can say about him. Fitzpatrick, warts and all, is a much better player.

Edit: Screwed up. He had 3TD and 1INT in four games in 2000.
 
If you think Fitz would throw one or fewer interceptions in four playoff games in a much better passing environment more power to you.
 
EDIT: And my larger point still stands. Dilfer did nothing to screw up that season for the Ravens. Fitz tried a whole lot last night to screw up that game for the Jets.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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riboflav said:
 
If you think Fitz would throw one or fewer interceptions in four playoff games in a much better passing environment more power to you.
 
EDIT: And my larger point still stands. Dilfer did nothing to screw up that season for the Ravens. Fitz tried a whole lot last night to screw up that game for the Jets.
 
Dilfer was a mediocre game manager.  He had a 4.9% interception percentage in 2000, which is terrible and especially so for a guy not being asked to throw often or in tough situations.  He also fumbled eight times for a total of 19 turnovers (or potential turnovers in the case of fumbles) in only 8 games started and 11 played.  In the playoffs, he only threw one pick, riding the high side of variance, but took sacks on 12% of his dropbacks, fumbled three times, and completed less than 50% of his throws.  The guy was awful and the Ravens won despite him being awful.
 

riboflav

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
Dilfer was a mediocre game manager.  He had a 4.9% interception percentage in 2000, which is terrible and especially so for a guy not being asked to throw often or in tough situations.  He also fumbled eight times for a total of 19 turnovers (or potential turnovers in the case of fumbles) in only 8 games started and 11 played.  In the playoffs, he only threw one pick, riding the high side of variance, but took sacks on 12% of his dropbacks, fumbled three times, and completed less than 50% of his throws.  The guy was awful and the Ravens won despite him being awful.
 
Be more helpful if you compared the eras and added that context but fine I concede Fitz is better than Dilfer.
 
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