2017 Yankees Offseason Discussion

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I mean, the bottom line was prescient, but every detail about why and how was way off. You call Boston the frontrunners when the Dodgers always were if they had been able to somehow fit him in (they evidently wanted to send back $75M in dead salaries), you don't mention his no trade clause at all which ended up being the most crucial element, and you say NY would need to send Frazier plus 2 or 3 guys from their top 10 which Cashman would never have considered even for a second. I'm really not trying to be too harsh and sorry if it is coming off that way, but it is really funny to me that you are (literally) patting yourself on the back for that one.

As for Machado, I do think it's still possible NY goes after him next winter, but it really doesn't make sense for them to send young talent within their division to get him a year earlier. Also that extra year will give them a chance to get a much better idea what they have in Torres and Andujar.

I mean, no one saw the Marlins pissing away 100% of their leverage. Jeter shot himself in the foot, amputated it, then tossed it into a meat grinder before trying to run the bases. So yeah, the prospect cost was lower than expected.

As for the Sox being the favorites, at the time of the article, they were presumed to be by a whole lot in the media. The whole point of the article, though, was that the Yankees made more sense. And I linked to a previous article in that one where I explained why the Sox didn't make sense. And I did discuss the no trade clause quite a bit in that piece.

 

[jon abbey]

I mean, no one saw the Marlins pissing away 100% of their leverage. Jeter shot himself in the foot, amputated it, then tossed it into a meat grinder before trying to run the bases. So yeah, the prospect cost was lower than expected.

Right, but that was the only reason NY was involved seriously, the perfect storm of them being the only team he said he'd approve who actually wanted to take on his deal, and the prospect cost being minimal (and they managed to dump Castro as a nice bonus).

The whole point of the article, though, was that the Yankees made more sense.

Which I still don't think is right, he would have been a much better fit on Boston in a vacuum especially given what turned out to be a minimal prospect cost and a reduction of his AAV to $22M per year (10/265 in real terms if he doesn't opt out, but the AAV seems more important for both NY and BOS).

 

[Murderer's Crow]

I saw the Stanton trade coming more than a month ago. So I'm looking ahead again and taking another guess at another big move Cashman could make: Trading for Manny Machado.

Might seems nuts, but the money could actually work, even after signing Sabathia (or another FA starter).

http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/front-office/stanton-yankees-will-machado-next/

You saw it coming for all of the wrong seasons. The Yankees got Stanton because it barely cost them anything and significantly improved the offense. Adding Machado is a fun headline grabber for rumor mill sites but there's not going to a bargain that would entice Cashman to do the same thing. To add Machado, you'd be trading the assets that Cashman would be better served using to find a starter while only marginally improving the offense.

This was true before Stanton but even more true now, they do not need offense or stars.

The other thing worth adding is that there's a good chance Cashman can take a wait and see approach for anymore big trades. They do not need a frontline starter to win the division (or compete through July). They need one for the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Cash figure out what he has with the kids while feeling out the market for starters later.

 

[Wingack]

You saw it coming for all of the wrong seasons. The Yankees got Stanton because it barely cost them anything and significantly improved the offense. Adding Machado is a fun headline grabber for rumor mill sites but there's not going to a bargain that would entice Cashman to do the same thing. To add Machado, you'd be trading the assets that Cashman would be better served using to find a starter while only marginally improving the offense.

This was true before Stanton but even more true now, they do not need offense or stars.

The other thing worth adding is that there's a good chance Cashman can take a wait and see approach for anymore big trades. They do not need a frontline starter to win the division (or compete through July). They need one for the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Cash figure out what he has with the kids while feeling out the market for starters later.

Only problem is with this is that the starter's just really aren't out there on the trading block.

 

[jon abbey]

The other thing worth adding is that there's a good chance Cashman can take a wait and see approach for anymore big trades. They do not need a frontline starter to win the division (or compete through July). They need one for the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Cash figure out what he has with the kids while feeling out the market for starters later.

Yes, I agree with this as I said above, of course assuming they do bring back CC.

 

[jon abbey]

Only problem is with this is that the starter's just really aren't out there on the trading block.

I think that's why you wait and see who may pop up midseason, and also see how your own top pitching prospects are developing in the minors.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Here's the piece about him not being a fit for Boston I referenced. He was always a long shot to go to Boston, IMO. And here's the bit about the no trade clause where I was already talking about New York being a better city for him.

Edit: I had the AAV wrong in this piece, which chips away at the argument, but the rest of the article stands.

Would Stanton waive his no-trade clause to come to Boston? He’s enjoyed living in Miami for his entire professional career. It’s one of the best cities in America for a young single person. Boston isn’t a terrible place to live, mind you, but it’s bitterly cold in the winter and lacks anything he might consider a legitimate beach within city limits. I don’t claim to know what goes on in his head, but if I’m in his shoes and I’m considering a city in the northeast and nightlife is a factor, New York has the edge. I might even prefer a southern city like Houston. Maybe he wants to go out west and be closer to his hometown. Maybe he wants an intuitive street grid. Maybe he’s really superstitious about places with names beginning with B.

So I had both New York and Houston as cities he'd maybe wave that NTC for. And I think everyone new LA was the real front runner if they wanted to get involved.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

And a list of what I'd still hope NY does this winter:

1) Sign Sabathia to a one year deal.

2) Upgrade backup catcher and dump Romine, Alex Avila has said he'd be happy to be a backup on a contender so maybe that can work.

3) Get rid of Ellsbury, even if it means including talent along with him and/or eating salary. There is no room for him on this team now.

4) Pick a coaching staff.

5) Spend their $3.5M left in international money, Cashman has said he has until June to use this and he will use it.

Guys like Mitchell and Torreyes also probably won't be around too much longer, Headley may last the season as a backup 1B/3B.

1) I'm not against bringing CC back as much as I am skeptical that he's going to offer considerable value. He barely got out of the 5th inning at all last year, he's got potential knee issues, and it feels like we're only interesting in bringing him back because of his veteran presence and post-season performance.

2) Totally agree. Alex Avila should be the next signing. He would be a substantial upgrade over Romine and check every box. If we are bringing CC back, I would hope we fill other holes first. I'd rather pay extra for Avila than make CC happy as an expensive 5th starter.

3) From your mouth to God's ears. This is going to be really hard to do. Ellsbury has no incentive to waive his NTC in order to go play for a non-contender. We can only hope that he also doesn't want to be relegated to bench and pinch-runner duties for the next 3 years. The Yankees will have to, and probably will be happy to, pay 75 cents on the dollar. I'm not fond of the idea that I've seen floated to send Frazier with Ellsbury so a team eats the contract. Frazier would be a top prospect in a lot of organizations and sending him away to save payroll when payroll only matters this year is dumb.

4) Should be done within a week or so based on Cash's recent comments.

5) This is exciting. Everyone talks about the Yankees system being so deep and the truth is that they aren't deep from the 3 trades they made two years ago. Those trades helped make them top heavy. They're deep because Cashman has been drafting in both the international and domestic drafts like a beast. There is no reason to believe the farm will not continue to be replenished and refilled. If anything, the current depth makes you wonder if Cashman goes for some high-risk high-reward types with the $3.5M.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I think that's why you wait and see who may pop up midseason, and also see how your own top pitching prospects are developing in the minors.

Exactly. You won't need another starter until at least the ALCS

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Exactly. You won't need another starter until at least the ALCS

Maybe even the 2019 ALCS.

 

[jon abbey]

1) I'm not against bringing CC back as much as I am skeptical that he's going to offer considerable value. He barely got out of the 5th inning at all last year, he's got potential knee issues, and it feels like we're only interesting in bringing him back because of his veteran presence and post-season performance.

He has been good to very good for two years in a row now, including absolutely dominating Boston all four times he faced them last year (4-0, 1.04 ERA). He was awful for three years in a row before that (2013-2015) and I get why it's hard for people to forget that, but he has reinvented himself the last two years a la late career Andy Pettitte and even regained a bit of velocity.

 

[Wingack]

So given how crowded things are, what happens with Clint Frazier?

If he isn't moved I think there is still room for him on the roster. There is no guarantee that Hicks is as productive as he was during the first part of last year and while we are fitting Florial for pinstripes in 2019 to replace Gardner on the roster he may not be ready then.

Though I think he is too aggressive at the plate and fear he will never be a reliable OBP guy, I still think he can be an exciting player. He was a top 20 prospect for a reason.

 

[E5 Yaz]

So given how crowded things are, what happens with Clint Frazier?

Traded for Yelich, Ozuna and another $35M

 

[Wingack]

Traded for Yelich, Ozuna and another $35M

You have yourself a deal sir.

 

[jon abbey]

So given how crowded things are, what happens with Clint Frazier?

If he isn't moved I think there is still room for him on the roster. There is no guarantee that Hicks is as productive as he was during the first part of last year and while we are fitting Florial for pinstripes in 2019 to replace Gardner on the roster he may not be ready then.

Though I think he is too aggressive at the plate and fear he will never be a reliable OBP guy, I still think he can be an exciting player. He was a top 20 prospect for a reason.

I think he could use regular ABs in AAA if he’s not moved and guys ahead of him are healthy, he didn’t really crush there last year before having to come up after the catastrophic Fowler injury. His defense worries me also and more reps couldn’t hurt, he is reasonably fast.

Hicks is under contract through 2019, Gardner has a club option for 2019, so Florial should have two years if needed to prepare.

 

[Lorca's Tribble]

I personally would like to see them keep Frazier. I like his swagger and the excitement that brings, and would rather get it from him instead of Harper. Yankees don't need to worry about selling high given the wealth of their system, so I'd like to see what they have in Frazier before dealing him.

That said, I expect him to be traded before opening day, if I'm honest.

 

[soxhop411]

CC TO LAAAAA?


@jon abbey

 

[jon abbey]

I’m not worried, but he’d be a great help for them, taking Ohtani under his wing. I don’t think Cashman will let him get away.

 

[Wingack]

I’m not worried, but he’d be a great help for them, taking Ohtani under his wing. I don’t think Cashman will let him get away.

Cashman should be willing to though if someone offers him a multiyear deal.

 

[jon abbey]

They will have to move on from CC at some point, but I don't think it will be this year. We'll see.

In the meantime, some interesting insights via Dan Federico on Twitter from an unnamed scout:

Dan Federico‏ @RealDanFederico 17m17 minutes ago
Finally had the chance to speak with a scout about the whole #Yankees/Giancarlo Stanton trade situation. He had some interesting thoughts about the whole thing.

On the trade itself: "The Yankees pulling off this trade is like winning the lottery. I'll put it like this: pitching wins. Their offense will be too much to bear for 95% of the league and they held onto their five best pitching prospects. Win-win."

On the DH situation: "I don't like the Yankees rotating the two between RF and DH. It's a whole different mindset as DH and it's a position I wouldn't want to rotate. Can throw players' rhythm off. Plus, I expected Sanchez to DH 40 or so games next year. Hard to see that now."

Additional moves: "Could they attach a pretty good prospect with Ellsbury to trade him? Yes. But if that was the case, teams would probably pay more for Clint Frazier. Either way, the Yankees will do their best to get rid of him. He has no place in New York."

On third base: "I think Headley will start the season there but Andujar is more than ready to be the Yankees everyday third baseman. I think he's the most MLB-ready prospect in the system. Even over Gleyber Torres."

More on Andujar: "He's excelled at every level and abused AAA pitching last year. And his shortcomings on defense are overblown. Does he need to improve? Yes. But arguably the best part of his game is his arm and he's as athletic as they come. He'll handle it."

On Gleyber Torres: "I love that they opened up second base for him. That's his best position on defense. I think he can be the perfect number two hitter in that lineup. I'm really excited to see his progression at the next level."

On a lack of speed in the Yankees lineup: "There's hardly a speed element in analytic-driven teams. The Yankees won't bunt or steal bases."

 

[Wingack]

He's here to stay.

 

[Wingack]

 

[cromulence]

He's here to stay.

We'll see about that. He's NEVER going to play. Is it worth being on a good team if you never play? I guess it depends on what type of person you are - ride the bench on a good team or play every day on a bad one? Of course, there's no guarantee he'd end up on a bad team.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

 

[Lorca's Tribble]

We'll see about that. He's NEVER going to play. Is it worth being on a good team if you never play? I guess it depends on what type of person you are - ride the bench on a good team or play every day on a bad one? Of course, there's no guarantee he'd end up on a bad team.

Keep in mind he's a person, too, with more on his mind than what he does day to day. He's won his rings. He may be comfortable in New York with his wife and kids. I can't blame him... there are worse things than being paid $22M a year to sit on a bench.

 

[Wingack]

That is a different tweet about Cole than earlier in the day that someone sent out.

Yankees could smash and grab quick on Cole.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

Yeah, Heyman earlier said Pittsburgh wouldn't trade him. But I can't believe they'd turn down the type of package New York could offer.

 

[jon abbey]

I will repeat that I will be stunned if Ellsbury ever plays another game for NY, I think that they will DFA him and swallow all of the money if they absolutely have to over keeping him around given the rest of the outfielders on the 40 man (Judge, Stanton, Hicks, Gardner, Frazier, McKinney, Cave).

Also, Cole is under contract for two more seasons, same as Sonny Gray. I think if NY is going to trade for someone and not bring back CC (presumably one or the other, although I guess both is possible), it needs to be someone under team control longer than that.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

I will repeat that I will be stunned if Ellsbury ever plays another game for NY, I think that they will DFA him and swallow all of the money if they absolutely have to over keeping him around given the rest of the outfielders on the 40 man (Judge, Stanton, Hicks, Gardner, Frazier, McKinney, Cave).

Also, Cole is under contract for two more seasons, same as Sonny Gray. I think if NY is going to trade for someone and not bring back CC (presumably one or the other, although I guess both is possible), it needs to be someone under team control longer than that.

So not only are we looking for an ace-type, we're looking for one under team control longer than 2 years? Good luck finding one.

 

[jon abbey]

So not only are we looking for an ace-type, we're looking for one under team control longer than 2 years? Good luck finding one.

That's why I would do it midseason when a bunch of teams are more realistic about the state of their teams. That gives you extra time to see how guys like Adams and Sheffield are progressing, I'm not convinced they need a big-name pitcher.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

They don't, but they do absolutely need to shed Ells & Headley to probably make room for CC & Avila + have any room mid-season to add a pitcher. That's another reason I'm against CC. His contract is going to limit flexibility at the deadline.

 

[jon abbey]

They're I believe around $15M under currently, so if they can save another $20M from Ellsbury and Headley combined (from their $34M combined), they should be in good shape to do whatever they want or need to and still be under $197M this year.

 

[jon abbey]

Warren also could be moved, I think he projects to be around $5M in his last arb year this year.

 

[j-man]

most years as a yankees i whire and moan about our weakness not this year i think we are 1 more SP form the WS

 

[wallypip]

If these reports are correct, the Yankees have about $20M to spend under the cap. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-yankees-still-have-money-to-spend-even-after-the-mega-stanton-trade/

That's enough to add a fifth starter.

Even though I would listen to offers, I'm not sure the Yankees need to move anyone out in order to clear space unless it leads to a direct upgrade in starting pitching. Unless you are sure that Andujar is ready for everyday duty at 3B, Headley is actually a great place holder with one year left on his contract. If Andujar pushes him out then he becomes the backup at 3B and 1B. I hate his slumps, but he is overall still a league average hitter. Gardner is probably the most tradeable contract right now, but I really think he's going to be the leadoff hitter in the outfield/DH rotation. The important thing about both of those guys is their contracts are perfect to move if the team has to make mid-season upgrades and/or they are pushed out by younger players.

Ellsbury isn't going to waive his NTC without a raise or extension and nobody is doing that, so he's the fifth outfielder. I will be delighted but shocked if the Yankees can clear any cap space by moving him.

 

[Wingack]

Bob Nightengale: The New York #Yankees, trying to swing a trade for a starter, have #Tigers Michael Fulmer and #Dbacks Patrick Corbin on their radar in early talks

 

[RedOctober3829]

Joel Sherman: I hear #Yankees have traded Mitchell and Chase Headley to the #Padres

 

[Wingack]

Unreal. Cashman is the best.

 

[chawson]

Joel Sherman: I hear #Yankees have traded Mitchell and Chase Headley to the #Padres

What could the Padres possibly want with a 34-year-old Chase Headley making $13M?

 

[RedOctober3829]

 

[Wingack]

Clear salary dump. Blash won’t make this roster. Let’s see how much money SD is taking on.

 

[chawson]

Padres absorbing all of the $13M on Headley's salary, per Rosenthal.

Jabari Blash is an interesting player. 37.4 percent of his batted balls last year were >95 mph, sandwiched right between Arenado and Puig.

Unfathomable move by Preller.

 

[Wingack]

Padres absorbing all of the $13M on Headley's salary.

Unfathomable move by Preller. Jabari Blash is an interesting player. 37.4 percent of his batted balls last year were >95 mph, sandwiched right between Arenado and Puig.

Score!

Cash is gonna spend that money.

 

[Wingack]

I feel like Cash is going to strike soon again, and moving Headley clears the way to make that happen.

 

[chawson]

This is like when the last place, 68-94 Pirates traded for Matt Morris — who was 33 and making $9.5M — to round out their 2008 rotation.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Cashman is in the zone.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Oh my. I fucking love Cashman.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

If these reports are correct, the Yankees have about $20M to spend under the cap. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-yankees-still-have-money-to-spend-even-after-the-mega-stanton-trade/

That's enough to add a fifth starter.

Even though I would listen to offers, I'm not sure the Yankees need to move anyone out in order to clear space unless it leads to a direct upgrade in starting pitching. Unless you are sure that Andujar is ready for everyday duty at 3B, Headley is actually a great place holder with one year left on his contract. If Andujar pushes him out then he becomes the backup at 3B and 1B. I hate his slumps, but he is overall still a league average hitter. Gardner is probably the most tradeable contract right now, but I really think he's going to be the leadoff hitter in the outfield/DH rotation. The important thing about both of those guys is their contracts are perfect to move if the team has to make mid-season upgrades and/or they are pushed out by younger players.

Ellsbury isn't going to waive his NTC without a raise or extension and nobody is doing that, so he's the fifth outfielder. I will be delighted but shocked if the Yankees can clear any cap space by moving him.

Nice to see you posting, sir. Been a long time since the yp-forum days!

 

[Murderer's Crow]

I feel like Cash is going to strike soon again, and moving Headley clears the way to make that happen.

As MLBtr notes, it also creates an unlikely but possible path to bring Frazier back.

 

[Wingack]

As MLBtr notes, it also creates an unlikely but possible path to bring Frazier back.

No thanks.