2018-19 Offseason Thread
- Thread starter Devizier
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I really have trouble seeing how we improve the team by trading Bradley. He's hard to value, because he's either not hitting at all, in which case he's a no-hit, great glove CF (a 1-2 WAR complementary player), or else he's hitting .250/.330/.450, and thus one of the better two-way position players in the league (a 4-5 WAR All Star). After his mid-May benching, he posted a .774 OPS. We've seen him do both for full seasons. We've also seen him combine the two in varying proportions.
Your trade proposal valued him as the latter guy, the All Star, who's thus a comparable player to Realmuto. Both JBJ and Realmuto have the same service time remaining to FA, they were both Super 2, and they're paid comparably.
But I doubt the Marlins (or any trading partner) will accept that valuation of Bradley, which is why he's hard to trade. If JBJ's actually that guy going forward, we likely have a historic outfield that leads us to a few more division titles. It would be hard to let that chance go for the return on the 1-2 WAR version of Bradley.
(In any case, the whole point of the Marlins dealing Realmuto is that they're rebuilding. If they wanted a 4 WAR player under contract through 2020, they, uhh, already have one in Realmuto. They want players who will be under control when they're next planning to be good. Devers is thus a trade proposal that they'd be more likely to accept, but I'm guessing they want several high upside prospects — and we don't have many of those.)
You make a great case and I agree. I'll take the quoted statement a step further and say I have trouble seeing how they improve the team by trading anyone on the 25 man roster. Proposing trades shipping out the likes of JBJ or Devers or Benintendi for a good player like Thor or Realmuto is a lateral move at best. Weakening one spot to upgrade another is zero sum.
Bradley's batting profile is that of a breakout year. His babip the first half was absolutely insane. He has a breakout year and is a good hitter. I'd rather sign him long term at a discount than trade him.
If you look only at that move in isolation, yes. But suppose they traded ‘Tendi for Realmuto and then signed Pollack to play LF? That might be better than signing Ramos to C for too many years and too much money.
He’ll be going into his age 31 season when he’s a FA. X and Betts are bigger priorities and that’s before either resigning or replacing Sale after next year. I have trouble seeing JBJ here long term.
He'll also be a lot cheaper than those guys. What if he gets something like the 4/$52 that Gardner got when he was 31?
Of he will be cheaper than those guys but I just don’t see him getting that little money or short term; that’s Josh Reddick money now. Hopefully I’m wrong.
I don't know if it makes sense to talk about a 29-year-old having a breakout year, and anyway, I think he already had his (2016, 118 wRC+, 5.2 fWAR). But it's reasonable to hope he can repeat it.
What about Hector Velazquez? He seems valuable to me. I thought of him because I just saw him pitch a 1,2,3 inning in the MLB/Japan series to the heart of their order.
Haha. Typed too soon. He came in for a second inning and now looks not so hot. At all. (Joe Magrane thought the pitch selection was poor.)
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Sorry, I meant as the centerpiece of a trade for a top-flight starting pitcher that they arguably - arguably! - don’t need. But sure, maybe someone like that gets dealt at some point.
I wasn't replying to the "centerpiece" part, but as a major leaguer who might have value as a piece of a trade, as you said Mets preferred major leaguers rather than prospects. I have no idea if the Mets need relievers.
If I'm the Mets talking to the Red Sox about Thor, I'm asking for Devers or EdRo, or both, just to start the conversation.
So no, I don't think he's coming to Boston.
So no, I don't think he's coming to Boston.
I’m late to this debate re. the catching situation, but I think you had a few things going on:
Vaz was clearly Plan A going into 2018. Then, he was bad on both sides of the ball, taking a huge step back from his 2017 season, and got hurt. That he was making a number of mental errors suggests something else was going on.
Leon started slowly at the plate but was ~.250 when Vaz got hurt. He eventually cratered at the dish and was completely gassed by the time the postseason. Leon is bad offensively. But he’s not as bad as he was in the second half when he caught almost ever day for six weeks and Swihart couldn’t sniff an inning at catcher.
If I had to guess, and it’s just a guess, they were willing to trade running Leon into the ground in return for him working with guys like Joe Kelly on their secondary stuff because they knew Vaz would be back.
So where does that leave them for 2019? Well, I don’t think they deal Leon unless they feel confident Vaz’s troubles are truly behind him. Whatever they actually were.
Vaz was clearly Plan A going into 2018. Then, he was bad on both sides of the ball, taking a huge step back from his 2017 season, and got hurt. That he was making a number of mental errors suggests something else was going on.
Leon started slowly at the plate but was ~.250 when Vaz got hurt. He eventually cratered at the dish and was completely gassed by the time the postseason. Leon is bad offensively. But he’s not as bad as he was in the second half when he caught almost ever day for six weeks and Swihart couldn’t sniff an inning at catcher.
If I had to guess, and it’s just a guess, they were willing to trade running Leon into the ground in return for him working with guys like Joe Kelly on their secondary stuff because they knew Vaz would be back.
So where does that leave them for 2019? Well, I don’t think they deal Leon unless they feel confident Vaz’s troubles are truly behind him. Whatever they actually were.
I think it's a matter of whether they tender him a contract or not. I doubt Leon has any value on the trade market.
I come here daily looking for updates on Pedroia. I know that they will probably be able to patchwork second base again if he's unable to play, but man that's a question mark that I would like to see resolved sooner rather than later.
Great article on FG today about the historic season Eovaldi just had.
Wonder if his agent is reading this rubbing his fingers together while he talks to teams.
Essentially no pitcher since at least 2002 (as far back as records go) has thrown as hard and had as high a strike % as Eovaldi just did.
Some have thrown harder but not close to strike % and those that match his strike % don't throw nearly as hard.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nathan-eovaldi-is-a-unicorn/
Wonder if his agent is reading this rubbing his fingers together while he talks to teams.
Essentially no pitcher since at least 2002 (as far back as records go) has thrown as hard and had as high a strike % as Eovaldi just did.
Some have thrown harder but not close to strike % and those that match his strike % don't throw nearly as hard.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nathan-eovaldi-is-a-unicorn/
That's why I'm here now.
This is the only move i'm worried about. If Pedroia can play, great. If not.....that worked out OK this year.
The bullpen needs attention, but the bullpen always needs attention, and will once next season begins most likely.Sign Eovaldi. Don't let anyone else do it, especially not the MFY. Get it done DD!
Get it done DD has finally replaced get it done Theo, huh? I agree, sign my goombah.That's why I'm here now.
This is the only move i'm worried about. If Pedroia can play, great. If not.....that worked out OK this year.
Sign Eovaldi. Don't let anyone else do it, especially not the MFY. Get it done DD!
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
#Padres, in process of cleaning up their 40-man roster, are talking about moving RHPs Colton Brewer and Rowan Wick in separate deals, sources tell The Athletic. #Cubs, #RedSox among teams SD is engaged with.
#Padres, in process of cleaning up their 40-man roster, are talking about moving RHPs Colton Brewer and Rowan Wick in separate deals, sources tell The Athletic. #Cubs, #RedSox among teams SD is engaged with.
Ken RosenthalVerified account @Ken_Rosenthal 37s37 seconds ago
#RedSox on verge of getting RHP Colten Brewer from #Padres, source tells The Athletic. Return expected to be a non-40-man roster minor leaguer.
Never heard of him but great minor league numbers the past couple of years.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/breweco01.shtml
I'm a NO on Eovaldi.That's why I'm here now.
This is the only move i'm worried about. If Pedroia can play, great. If not.....that worked out OK this year.
Sign Eovaldi. Don't let anyone else do it, especially not the MFY. Get it done DD!
Not a no at any price obviously. But a no at the price he's likely to get - Fangraphs suggests 3 years $54M to $60M.
At that price he's too much of a risk. Eovaldi has never shown consistency at the major league level. He gives up too many home runs. And he's only thrown over 160 innings once in his career.
He was awesome in the post-season, and to a lesser extent down the stretch. Overreacting to that kind of small sample size with a World Series hero is how championship teams get saddled with too many big contracts. We have huge decisions coming up with superstar level players who will need big paydays and Eovaldi does not fill an obvious need in our rotation (and he will cost too much to be a closer). I'd have to have a lot more confidence to spend $20M on what amounts to a 5th starter on this club.
Brewer has two options left. Projects as up-and-down middle reliever. Cutter/curve combo. Hits 95.
Colten Brewer appears to be a spin rate freak, FWIW. A few interesting names around his on that list (Pressly, Ottavino, Robertson, Verlander, Jansen).
I would definitely discuss EdRo in a trade for Thor, but I think it would take him plus Devers. If Devers were not included, then it would have to be EdRo + Chavis + a lot more. I just don't think we have the pieces - at least not that we'd be willing to give up.
The objections wouldn't come from the Red Sox side.
Syndergaard has all of 19 days more ML service time than Rodriguez. They will both become FA at the same time. If the Mets are trading Syndergaard, it's because they don't expect to be competitive during the next three seasons; given the division they play in, that's probably the right bet. So why would they want a package built around Rodriguez?
I know you didn't come up with this crazy trade idea; it was @Dewey'sCannon, and even he wasn't really proposing it, so much as (rightly) pumping the brakes on talk of a Syndergaard trade acquisition.
But because we're a) in a Win Now moment on the success cycle, and b) in a dry spell on the farm due to trades and promotions, people are proposing trades from the 25 man roster for other players who would be on the 25 man roster. This makes some sense; that's where the value in the organization is. But they seem to be struggling with the fact that teams dealing established ML players are doing so to acquire more years of control — i.e. 2 years of James Paxton for 6+ years of Justus Sheffield, who will likely be called up for his Mariners debut around Memorial Day.
FWIW, this isn't true. There have been a bunch of quotes in recent days saying that if NY traded Syndergaard, it would be because they couldn't resist the package of talent and if they got prospects, they would think about moving them immediately to help the team compete now. The new GM and the Wilpons both want to compete immediately, and they are wondering if trading Syndergaard and signing a replacement on the FA market might be the best way to go, which is where they are currently.
tl/dr: The Mets don't function like other teams, never assume common sense when it comes to them.
There are two things the Red Sox are notably short on; one is MLB-ready minor league talent, the other is LT space. Trading Edro+Chavis and/or whomever for Thor would make them even shorter on both, for a fairly modest upgrade (Edro is a good young pitcher, getting better; he ranked #10 out of 47 in the AL in SIERA this past year among pitchers with 120+ IP). This is a deal that really wouldn't make sense for the Sox, and might not make sense for the Mets either.
Unfortunately for the Yankees and Sox, the Astros are in a perfect position to acquire any of the top pitchers who become available. I don't envy their rotation woes on November 20th, but they could easily build a new 3 headed beast if they match up with the Mets or Cleveland.
Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports (via Twitter) that the Red Sox will send minor league infielder Esteban Quiroz to San Diego in exchange for Brewer.
Sounds like a good deal to me. They traded a guy they picked up from the Mexican league as possible middle infield insurance for a guy the Padres signed as a minor league free agent last year to be bullpen insurance. But Brewer looks like he has some potential as a reliever left, and Quiroz is probably behind the rest of our middle infield players and not likely to develop much more at 26. It's a depth balancing move for the two teams, but I think the player we got looks better.
The team added Chavis, Lakins, Hernandez, Josh Taylor, and Denyi Reyes to the 40-man today (which is at 39 people). They did not add Josh Ockimey, which is a little surprising. Cuevas is gone.
They wouldn’t give up their top prospect for Paxton. I remain skeptical the Indians will deal with an AL contender. deGrom isn’t going anywhere. They may have missed their shot with Paxton.
He actually just the opposite, a control-pitchability guy. Those guys don't have the value they used to, but the Sox must really like him.
Is Chandler Shepherd still on the 40-man? I think I’d rather Ockimey.The team added Chavis, Lakins, Hernandez, Josh Taylor, and Denyi Reyes to the 40-man today (which is at 39 people). They did not add Josh Ockimey, which is a little surprising. Cuevas is gone.
Apparently Edwin Diaz is on the block.
How do we get him? I loved watching him pitch. He's the anti Kimbrel. Gets the ball, throws it. He's like Mark Buehrle speed.
How do we get him? I loved watching him pitch. He's the anti Kimbrel. Gets the ball, throws it. He's like Mark Buehrle speed.
What's your definition of "lighting the world on fire?" He had an ~.870 OPS and 15 HRs in 90 games, which seems like something a team might want to keep around. Granted, he had a 30% K rate, but he also drew a lot of walks. He's far from a guaranteed success, but I'm surprised they'd be willing to lose him for nothing. Of course, the FO has a better sense of his value than I do, so who knows.
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I get the sense here in Seattle that he isn't really on the block. Of course, we never know, but here's what Di Poto said today:
• If Edwin Díaz is on the trading block: “Edwin’s exciting, he’s young, he’s coming off of truly one of the great seasons in the history of relief pitchers in our league. There’s really no reason why he can’t be part of the core of the next great Mariners team, but we’re going to be open-minded to anything we’re doing this offseason as we move forward. That being said, we would absolutely have to be blown away to move players like Edwin Díaz and Mitch Haniger and Marco Gonzales. These are the types of players we’re trying to acquire, but we do have to be open-minded to what happens across the board. We won’t shut our minds to anything.”