2018-19 Offseason Thread

Dewey'sCannon

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I would expect that DD will conduct due diligence in exploring the market for available SPs. But it would truly be a bold move to pull the trigger on a trade for someone like Syndergaard, who would probably cost Devers+. Picking Thor up would certainly help cover not only '19 but '20 and '21, but it would probably also indicate that they won't be re-signing Sale. And, of course, they'd have a hole to fill at 3b for at least a good part of '19, since Chavis is probably not ready yet (and no guarantee he will be a long-term solution). And Donaldson is now off the market.

So while you can never say never, especially with Dave, I wouldn't expect this kind of move, especially coming off a WS championship and looking to keep the band together for another run.
 

moondog80

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This is how I see it as well. Unless they get 4 or 5 breakouts from the minors (include Johnson, Lin and Swihart types in that group) there’s just not enough cheap talent to plug into 2020 to make a run that year affordable. Go for it in 2019, then plan to retool around Benintendi and Devers for 2021 and 2022. Part of that retooling may include auctioning off Betts’ last year of arbitration, if he continues rebuffing offers, to bring back controllable top tier talent.
You don't see them just keeping Betts and/or Bogaerts? The only guys signed past 2020 are Price, Pedroia, and Vazquez - about 50 mil total, and even if they want to duck under the tax threshold for a year, that was 197 mil this season. I agree that this is sort of a go for it year, but they won't be the '98 Marlins in 2020. All that money they won't be paying Sandoval, Castillo, Kimbrel, Sale, and Martinez will be going to someone else.
 

Plympton91

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You don't see them just keeping Betts and/or Bogaerts? The only guys signed past 2020 are Price, Pedroia, and Vazquez - about 50 mil total, and even if they want to duck under the tax threshold for a year, that was 197 mil this season. I agree that this is sort of a go for it year, but they won't be the '98 Marlins in 2020. All that money they won't be paying Sandoval, Castillo, Kimbrel, Sale, and Martinez will be going to someone else.
If you assum Betts will cost $30 and Bogaetts $20, then adding Price $31 and Pedroia $15, puts them near $100 for 2020. Resigning 4 out of 5 of Kimbrel, Porcello, Bradley, Sale, and Martinez or their facsimiles puts you close to $200 before you even start with arbitration awards (Barnes and Edro will be final year arb, so maybe $20 million combined if they do well in 2019) or mid-salary depth in the bullpen (Say Kelly At $7.5) and lineup (the 1B platoon costs $13 million).

To remain WS competitive without a year in which they restock by selling assets, they’ll need a $250 million payroll for an extended period or a whole lot of luck from what looks like a lackluster farm. Maybe Chavis wins rookie of the year at 2B, Hernandez becomes Aroldis Chapman, and Johnson becomes a legit lefty junkballer #3. But I doubt it all breaks that way.
 

moondog80

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If you assum Betts will cost $30 and Bogaetts $20, then adding Price $31 and Pedroia $15, puts them near $100 for 2020. Resigning 4 out of 5 of Kimbrel, Porcello, Bradley, Sale, and Martinez or their facsimiles puts you close to $200 before you even start with arbitration awards (Barnes and Edro will be final year arb, so maybe $20 million combined if they do well in 2019) or mid-salary depth in the bullpen (Say Kelly At $7.5) and lineup (the 1B platoon costs $13 million).

To remain WS competitive without a year in which they restock by selling assets, they’ll need a $250 million payroll for an extended period or a whole lot of luck from what looks like a lackluster farm. Maybe Chavis wins rookie of the year at 2B, Hernandez becomes Aroldis Chapman, and Johnson becomes a legit lefty junkballer #3. But I doubt it all breaks that way.
I doubt they sign 4 out of those 5. Certainly not Sale, probably not Porcello, Kimbrel, or JDM. Maybe JBJ at the right price, but even then I could see letting him walk and moving Benintendi to CF to better make use of his skill set. A core of Xander/Betts/Price/arb-Benintendi/Devers costs 100 mil, and fill in the rest with the farm and mid-level, short term FA. That's not a lock for 100 wins, but it won't take a miracle to get the wild card.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Something I've been thinking about. With the Mets seemingly in on Cano and the Phillies in on Corbin and every other big name FA would you think about trading David Price (taking back minimal money) if it meant dumping Pedroia's deal? Given that the team has a lot of decisions coming up. Probably fantasy land but anytime you have a team that is desperate to spend nothing can be ruled out.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Or that David Price has that kind of trade value? If they waived him, would another team even claim him?
 

chawson

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Right, which is a sign that maybe they aren't comparable. Porcello gets by with a pretty cool pitch mix that works very well until he finally hangs one.
Mmm, I'm not convinced. Porcello has a less productive peak/plateau, throws everything 1-3 mph softer, gives up more homers, and plays in a better hitting era and division than Shields did at the same age (27-29) but we expect him to age better because of his pitch mix?

Here's a side-by-side comp of RP/JS's 27-29 seasons. They're oddly comparable pitchers. Shields' next 2-3 years were admittedly pretty good, but some of those years were very home-run suppressant league-wide (for whatever reason), and it's not that sort of league anymore.
 

E5 Yaz

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Something I've been thinking about. With the Mets seemingly in on Cano and the Phillies in on Corbin and every other big name FA would you think about trading David Price (taking back minimal money) if it meant dumping Pedroia's deal? Given that the team has a lot of decisions coming up. Probably fantasy land but anytime you have a team that is desperate to spend nothing can be ruled out.
Along with these two questions

You honestly think there’s any chance of convincing Pedroia to be a salary dump?
Or that David Price has that kind of trade value? If they waived him, would another team even claim him?
I'l add something else. The Red Sox don't have the "decisions" coming up ... the players involved also have decisions

-- Mookie has repeatedly shown that he's satisfied taking every step along the way to reach free agency

-- X is repped by Boras. The chances that he'll sign w/o going to free agency are fat and slim

-- Sale is increasingly a health uncertainty. He's going to want all that he can get in what probably will be his last deal.

There's no certainty that any of them will re-sign in Boston ... even if the Red Sox cleared salary under your unlikely proposal
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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I doubt they sign 4 out of those 5. Certainly not Sale, probably not Porcello, Kimbrel, or JDM. Maybe JBJ at the right price, but even then I could see letting him walk and moving Benintendi to CF to better make use of his skill set. A core of Xander/Betts/Price/arb-Benintendi/Devers costs 100 mil, and fill in the rest with the farm and mid-level, short term FA. That's not a lock for 100 wins, but it won't take a miracle to get the wild card.
JDM is already signed. The question is whether or not he opts out, and I wouldn't be so quick to assume that he will. I think it's more likely that he won't. Maybe the market for a DH with a Lisfranc injury in his past, heading into his 32/33 year will be robust. But I would bet that it's not going to be a whole lot better than the 3/62.5 he'll have remaining on his Sox contract.
 

jon abbey

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-- X is repped by Boras. The chances that he'll sign w/o going to free agency are fat and slim
Nothing really to add except I think it's funny these two words are opposites but mean basically the same thing in this context.
 

chrisfont9

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Mmm, I'm not convinced. Porcello has a less productive peak/plateau, throws everything 1-3 mph softer, gives up more homers, and plays in a better hitting era and division than Shields did at the same age (27-29) but we expect him to age better because of his pitch mix?

Here's a side-by-side comp of RP/JS's 27-29 seasons. They're oddly comparable pitchers. Shields' next 2-3 years were admittedly pretty good, but some of those years were very home-run suppressant league-wide (for whatever reason), and it's not that sort of league anymore.
I'm not sure he will age better, I am merely saying that you can't expect them to age the same unless an awful lot of things are similar, such as pitch mix and their respective abilities to deal with the wear and tear. The latter won't be knowable until after and I still have some questions about the former. I wonder what a good way to do comparables really is? Spin rates and strike zone locations? Anyway, I can see why you would compare Porcello to Shields based on those results. Maybe I can figure out how to run a comparison between Porcello and Derek Lowe.
 

Pozo the Clown

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JDM is already signed. The question is whether or not he opts out, and I wouldn't be so quick to assume that he will. I think it's more likely that he won't. Maybe the market for a DH with a Lisfranc injury in his past, heading into his 32/33 year will be robust. But I would bet that it's not going to be a whole lot better than the 3/62.5 he'll have remaining on his Sox contract.
If JDM's 2019 is anything close to his 2018 (re: production and health), I think it's an almost certainty that he opts out. His desire to play the outfield on a regular basis may play a huge factor in where he decides to play after next year. He doesn't view himself as a DH only. The fact MVP voters apparently penalized him for his time at DH this year may also be an incentive to seek a gig as a regular outfielder.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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You honestly think there’s any chance of convincing Pedroia to be a salary dump?
Going to the Phillies depending on if they land Bryce Harper and others then yes there’s probably a chance. Because at that point you’re trading him to a contender.
 

nvalvo

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This is how I see it as well. Unless they get 4 or 5 breakouts from the minors (include Johnson, Lin and Swihart types in that group) there’s just not enough cheap talent to plug into 2020 to make a run that year affordable. Go for it in 2019, then plan to retool around Benintendi and Devers for 2021 and 2022. Part of that retooling may include auctioning off Betts’ last year of arbitration, if he continues rebuffing offers, to bring back controllable top tier talent.
I've been beating this drum for some time now.

The plan is working out great. Dombrowski has taken Theo and Cherington's top-3 farm system and very efficiently converted it, through promotions and trades, into a series of division titles and a championship. It seems clear that we are in good shape for a 2019 title defense, health permitting. Hopefully we're celebrating another division title and deep postseason run this time next year.

But what follows? P91 has laid out the issues well in this thread, but for me the crux of the issue for me is the rotation. Price has opted in. He's here through 2022. That's probably a good thing; let's hope so, because he's almost certainly untradeable. Rodriguez is in his arb years through 2021, Wright through 2020. Velazquez and Johnson are pre-arb. But after 2019, Porcello and Sale are most likely gone. That's our biggest innings-eater of innings and our most reliable ace, something like 350-400 IP of high-quality innings that will need to be replaced.

We can replace those innings in three ways, or in some mixture of the three:
  • Promote from within. I think some of the doom and gloom about the farm is a bit overstated, but the situation is clearly not great, looking around the league. Our low ranking mostly reflects how few high minors prospects we have, which is appropriate. We have some interesting pitchers on the farm, but they're mostly injured or in the low minors. We'll know a lot more about what we have from among the Scherff-Houck-Groome-Hernandez-Reyes-Mata group in a year or so. Even one of those guys panning out well would make a big difference.
  • Free agency, including resigning/extending Eovaldi, Porcello or Sale on FA deals. The challenge here is that we are soon likely to be paying FA rates or similar to our entire offensive core of players. Unless ownership wants to go full Dodgers and blast over all of the payroll limitations for an extended period, the FA route will force us into tough choices. We can't keep everyone. I'd prioritize Betts and Bogaerts, and be more willing to see Bradley (although I love him) leave in FA, but
  • Trade. The issue here is intimately related to the first issue. Trade what? We've been seeing a bunch of sort of delusional trade proposals on the board recently as people come to terms with this. No one is giving us controllable pitching for players who already have multiple years of MLB service time. It could be that some of our collection of promising power-hitting minor league infielders (Chavis, Dalbec, Casas, Howlett, Northcut, Diaz) may blossom in 2019 into the kinds of players who could bring back controllable starting pitching, and if that happens, that would really help.
The moral is the same as that P91 drew. Sustaining this roster past 2019 is going to require further infusions of talent from the farm, either by trade or promotion. We have a lot of interesting low minors prospects, and the medium term picture depends a lot on how many of those guys still look interesting as they reach Portland and, uh, Worcester.
 

chrisfont9

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Or that David Price has that kind of trade value? If they waived him, would another team even claim him?
I think so. He's got 4x$30 left and just more or less closed out a World Series. If you believed he was a 4.4 win player (bWAR) in 2018, and that a win is worth about $9m, that's not an overpay. If he can do that two more times (big if, but hey), then, well, pitchers of that caliber don't grow on trees? It's probably not a smart move to take him but I bet someone would.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Going to the Phillies depending on if they land Bryce Harper and others then yes there’s probably a chance. Because at that point you’re trading him to a contender.
He’s already on a contender. One that he took a discount to finish his career with and not uproot his family. In return for which he received no trade provisions until his 10-5 rights kicked in. There’s also probably a chance they can convince Mookie to sign for 10/$100M but I think the chances are about equal.
 

The Gray Eagle

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And once again, for the fifth consecutive year-- every single year since he signed his no-trade contract-- we have someone proposing that we trade Dustin Pedroia! Congratulations!

Who will be the first SOSHer to propose this impossible trade next year? And in 2020? And 2021? Stay tuned and see!
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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And once again, for the fifth consecutive year-- every single year since he signed his no-trade contract-- we have someone proposing that we trade Dustin Pedroia! Congratulations!

Who will be the first SOSHer to propose this impossible trade next year? And in 2020? And 2021? Stay tuned and see!
BUT BUT BUT Brett Netzer hit .270 in Salem! Or they could move Mookie back!
 

Dustin the Wind

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Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, and Red Sox have expressed the "strongest interest" in Mariners closer Edwin Diaz.

But it sounds like the rebuilding Mariners will only consider trading Diaz if he is attached to a deal involving veteran second baseman Robinson Cano, who is owed $120 million on a contract that runs through 2023. Diaz was brilliant this past year in Seattle, delivering a 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 124/17 K/BB ratio over 73 1/3 innings while racking up an MLB-best 57 saves. It's going to require both young talent and the willingness to take on most (if not all) of that Cano cash to pluck the 24-year-old Diaz away from the M's.

https://nypost.com/2018/11/27/mariners-reliever-edwin-diaz-isnt-entirely-off-limits/

Does this rule us out, baring something ridiculous with our salary situation?

Edit; clarity
 
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jon abbey

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Ask the Ms take Moreland and Porcello? There are ways, but it looks like Cano will likely go to NYY along with Diaz.
I’ll be very surprised, if Cashman really does want to take on Cano (doubtful), a Cano/Segura combo to NYY makes a lot more sense and then they could auction Diaz on his own and get some genuine talent back. Bundling Cano and Diaz just to save money seems like a good way to deeply piss off the fan base for years.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
If there's one thing the Sox don't need right now, it's a five-year, six-figure commitment to a 36-year-old who just missed half a season and is an excellent bet to fall off a cliff well before the deal is over. As good as Diaz is, he's not enough better than the Sox' in-house options to make that a good idea. And creating a needless hole in our 2019 starting rotation as a one-year fiscal band-aid would be the cherry on the shit sundae.
 

moondog80

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Speculating on whether or not taking on Cano is a good idea for any team is useless without having a sense of the money involved. He's owed 120 mil over the next 5 years, which is a lot more than his current market value. But he can still play, he had a WAR of 3.2 in 80 games last year. What if Seattle took Pedroia back? Now it's 80 mil for 5 years, which is still too much, but we are getting closer. What's his market value for 5 years? 60 mil? (I'm not so much advocating this as I am trying to figure out what a hypothetical 'fair' deal would be.)
 

BaseballJones

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If the Yankees get Cano/Diaz, does that mean they're out on Machado? Or does that mean Torres or Andujar get dealt? Or do they give up on Voit/Bird and move Andujar and Torres around to fit Cano and Machado in?

For the Sox, I have a hard pass on this. They don't need Cano and I don't want that contract, even a subsidized one. If it's HEAVILY subsidized maybe, because Diaz is terrific. But still. Not that interested.
 

RIrooter09

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Speculating on whether or not taking on Cano is a good idea for any team is useless without having a sense of the money involved. He's owed 120 mil over the next 5 years, which is a lot more than his current market value. But he can still play, he had a WAR of 3.2 in 80 games last year. What if Seattle took Pedroia back? Now it's 80 mil for 5 years, which is still too much, but we are getting closer. What's his market value for 5 years? 60 mil? (I'm not so much advocating this as I am trying to figure out what a hypothetical 'fair' deal would be.)

Pedroia has a full no-trade.
 

jon abbey

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If the Yankees get Cano/Diaz, does that mean they're out on Machado? Or does that mean Torres or Andujar get dealt? Or do they give up on Voit/Bird and move Andujar and Torres around to fit Cano and Machado in?
With the caveat that it's not going to happen (as someone pointed out elsewhere, this is nice short-term but once Diaz is getting big arb salaries and Cano has devolved into a mediocre DH, NY would be paying in the $35M range for the two combined, just as their own homegrown players are getting pricy), NY needs two infielders for this season assuming they are done with the Andujar at 3B experiment.
 

NDame616

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If JDM's 2019 is anything close to his 2018 (re: production and health), I think it's an almost certainty that he opts out. His desire to play the outfield on a regular basis may play a huge factor in where he decides to play after next year. He doesn't view himself as a DH only. The fact MVP voters apparently penalized him for his time at DH this year may also be an incentive to seek a gig as a regular outfielder.
While he did it marginally (slightly? a little? depending on how you look at it) worse as a DH, I think his hesitancy to be a full-time DH was that he knew it would cut his market in half for his next contract.
 

Cesar Crespo

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While he did it marginally (slightly? a little? depending on how you look at it) worse as a DH, I think his hesitancy to be a full-time DH was that he knew it would cut his market in half for his next contract.
It also doesn't really matter what he views himself as. I doubt any NL teams will be lining up to sign him and he'll be another year older. And honestly, he'd probably have a better chance of winning the MVP award as a DH than an OF in today's voting environment. He would get dinged huge for his negative defensive value. Had he played all 150 games in the OF, his dWAR would have projected to -3.7. His oWAR was 6.8 this year. That would give him similar overall value to Xander and Ben10.

He was also much better than marginal" with the bat this year in RF/LF, but I don't think that's really predictive of anything and is a large function of BAbip luck. An 1.130 OPS vs a .970 OPS. For his career, he's actually been better at DH, .909 vs .881.

2018
OF: 249 PA, .384/.450/.680, .422 BAbip, 16 HRs, 25bb/44k
DH: 400 PA, .297/.373/.597, .341 BAbip, 27 HRs, 44bb/102k

Career
OF: 3188 PA, .293/.352/.529, .346 BAbip, 160 HRs, 260bb/772k
DH: 0551 PA, .284/.350/.559, .339 BAbip, 033 HRs, 053bb/151k

After 2019, he'll be owed 3/62.5. I can see another team maybe offering 4 years at similar value but I don't think he's in for the huge pay day he wants.
 

moondog80

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Seems a little more destined to be than I’d like to admit. It’s his hometown team and the dude has already played for the three biggest franchises in the sport.
I had no idea he was on the Dodgers and was the main piece they gave up in the trade for Hanley Ramirez.
 

chrisfont9

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Seems a little more destined to be than I’d like to admit. It’s his hometown team and the dude has already played for the three biggest franchises in the sport.
I dunno, he seemed to enjoy beating them not too long ago. I doubt he has a lot of personal feelings for the Astros compared to the guys he just won a title with. If he signs there, this is the likely bullshit we get served when the real story will be that they offered the most money.
 

mauidano

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So Friday is the day that the Sox have to tender contracts to those with less than six years service that are on the 40 man roster.
https://www.mlb.com/news/will-red-sox-offer-contract-to-tyler-thornburg/c-301208210?tid=282421090

"The other players the Red Sox must tender contracts to by Friday's deadline are: American League MVP Award winner Mookie Betts, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, infielder/outfielder Brock Holt, catcher Sandy Leon, Barnes, righty Brandon Workman, knuckleballer Steven Wright, righty Heath Hembree and catcher Blake Swihart."

Any thoughts here on this?
 

Pozo the Clown

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So Friday is the day that the Sox have to tender contracts to those with less than six years service that are on the 40 man roster.
https://www.mlb.com/news/will-red-sox-offer-contract-to-tyler-thornburg/c-301208210?tid=282421090

"The other players the Red Sox must tender contracts to by Friday's deadline are: American League MVP Award winner Mookie Betts, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, infielder/outfielder Brock Holt, catcher Sandy Leon, Barnes, righty Brandon Workman, knuckleballer Steven Wright, righty Heath Hembree and catcher Blake Swihart."

Any thoughts here on this?
Seems like the sole, potential non-tender candidate is Thornburg. I doubt they non-tender him. He made $2,050,000 in '18 and shouldn't be in line for any significant increase.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think Sandy Leon is an option as well as Thornsburg. There will be cheaper options at catcher that can offer similar overall value to Leon. It would be hard not to, really.
 

chawson

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I’m about ready to move on from Workman. He’s out of options and I doubt the Sox want to carry him on the 25 all year, especially when they’re weaving in Brewer (and whoever else).

With the Cubs trading for Torreyes, I wonder if Tommy La Stella is available. He’s a very similar player to Brock Holt and had a rough/hurt 2018, but his 2017 was really solid, and, like Workman, he’s under control through 2020. I think he has an option left too.
 
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Seels

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I really don't want Cano even if his salary wasn't the burden it is. Diaz seems to be a good player but not even close enough to taking on 5/120 of a 36 year old steroid user. Hard pass.
 

simplicio

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Man, I remember there was a solid fortnight when this dude was Public Enemy #1 around here during the '14-'15 nadir. Now his departure barely registers.
Yeah, I almost added something snarky about how of course it would be the Mets that wanted him. I've always assumed Dombrowski's arrival shuffled him over to a place where he could do no more harm. Out of sight, out of mind I guess.
 

nattysez

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So Friday is the day that the Sox have to tender contracts to those with less than six years service that are on the 40 man roster.
https://www.mlb.com/news/will-red-sox-offer-contract-to-tyler-thornburg/c-301208210?tid=282421090

"The other players the Red Sox must tender contracts to by Friday's deadline are: American League MVP Award winner Mookie Betts, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, infielder/outfielder Brock Holt, catcher Sandy Leon, Barnes, righty Brandon Workman, knuckleballer Steven Wright, righty Heath Hembree and catcher Blake Swihart."

Any thoughts here on this?
Please, for the love of all that is holy, do not lowball Mookie or Xander. Give Mookie $11mm, which I believe would set the record for the highest-ever first-year arbitration award (Bryant set the record with $10.85m last year), and be done with it.