2019-20 Offseason Discussion

Red(s)HawksFan

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The only way they could make a reasonable bid for Mookie in that range is to trade him now to reset the luxury tax clock, or whatever its called.
Resetting the luxury tax penalties by getting under the cap this year certainly puts them in the best position to make a competitive offer to Betts next winter, but trading him now is not the only nor even the best way to go about doing that.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I swear I was going to post a hypothetical Price for Myers deal over the past few days but thought it would get shot down quickly here. One of the main reasons I hesitated to post the deal is the damage it does to the rotation without a reasonable idea for a replacement. Bloom is going to have to get create replacing those innings.

I live in SD. The Padres are desperate for a front-line starter and they've been looking to move Myers for at least a year now and no one, rightfully, has been interested. They also don't have the big money for a Strasburg, Cole or even likely a MadBum in free agency.

Trading Price for Myers doesn't make the team better and makes the rotation even more of a question mark. However, it's something I'd look into if it meant keeping Mookie.

As others have noted above, the big value is the tax hit that Myers carries. The years on their deals matchup. Myers can play all 3 OF positions and 1B, although none well. He's a pull hitter, which may play up at Fenway. He's still only 29 and had a positive WAR the 4 previous seasons before last. If you limit his exposure against tough righties, maybe you can get some positive value out of him again.

There are a number of ways I think a deal could be put together. Something like Price with JBJ gives them the starter and CF they need. Price with Vazquez would settle their catching situation (they appear ready to trade at least one of Hedges/Mejia). Both clear significant money for Boston. In return, the Sox could look for something like Myers/Hedges or Myers/Kirby Yates or Myers and one of their shiny prospects (maybe a reunion with Logan Allen?).

I think the Padres are itching to make a deal. Hopefully Bloom can take advantage and get enough money moved around to keep Mookie in town.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The Padres traded Allen to Cleveland last season. He was part of that three team deal w/ Cincy.
If JBJ is traded, Manuel Margot would be a cheap replacement in CF. Still has 3 years of control though he did just become arb eligible. I'd be ok with Manny in CF.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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If JBJ is traded, Manuel Margot would be a cheap replacement in CF. Still has 3 years of control though he did just become arb eligible. I'd be ok with Manny in CF.
Margot would be an upgrade offensively IMO, I really like his upside still. JBJ is pretty much maxed out. But yes I would be more than okay with him as a JBJ replacement.

I want zero part of Myers 20 million dollar a year contract starting after next season.
 

chawson

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I swear I was going to post a hypothetical Price for Myers deal over the past few days but thought it would get shot down quickly here. One of the main reasons I hesitated to post the deal is the damage it does to the rotation without a reasonable idea for a replacement. Bloom is going to have to get create replacing those innings.

I live in SD. The Padres are desperate for a front-line starter and they've been looking to move Myers for at least a year now and no one, rightfully, has been interested. They also don't have the big money for a Strasburg, Cole or even likely a MadBum in free agency.

Trading Price for Myers doesn't make the team better and makes the rotation even more of a question mark. However, it's something I'd look into if it meant keeping Mookie.

As others have noted above, the big value is the tax hit that Myers carries. The years on their deals matchup. Myers can play all 3 OF positions and 1B, although none well. He's a pull hitter, which may play up at Fenway. He's still only 29 and had a positive WAR the 4 previous seasons before last. If you limit his exposure against tough righties, maybe you can get some positive value out of him again.

There are a number of ways I think a deal could be put together. Something like Price with JBJ gives them the starter and CF they need. Price with Vazquez would settle their catching situation (they appear ready to trade at least one of Hedges/Mejia). Both clear significant money for Boston. In return, the Sox could look for something like Myers/Hedges or Myers/Kirby Yates or Myers and one of their shiny prospects (maybe a reunion with Logan Allen?).

I think the Padres are itching to make a deal. Hopefully Bloom can take advantage and get enough money moved around to keep Mookie in town.
Good stuff. I agree there’s plenty of parts to find a deal, and a desperate Preller is the guy to make one with.

Hedges is an all-world defender and the best pitch framer in the game. After some regression shouldn’t be as bad a hitter as he appeared last year. If a deal were expanded to include Hedges and Vazquez, with more value going Boston’s way to even it out, I’d be interested.

Others here seem to think Margot still has offensive upside, but I’m not seeing it. If we’re getting a second outfielder along with Myers, I’d take a flyer on Franchy or Edward Olivares, as both seem pushed out with the additions of Trammell, Grisham and Pham. Maybe Myers plays left in Boston and Ty France, who seems like a Rays-style acquisition, comes along to play first as a throw-in.

The focus only any trade with SD is their pitching prospects, of course. Assuming Gore and Paddack are off limits, I still love Lamet and Patiño, less high on Lucchesi and Morejon.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Half jokingly, but they could probably get Javy Guerra thrown into any deal with Margot. He was converted to a relief pitcher last year and showed some promise but he requires a 40 man spot so it limits a lot of his value.

I'm not sure how much salary Boston would have to pay or what players SD could dump on Boston for Margot to work though. Maybe enough other teams will show interest that the amount is minimal.

FWIW, Margot
Start-June 30th: 76 games, 195 PA, .238/.289/.337, 12bb/42k. ISO of .099. .294 BAbip. 6.2% BB%, 21.5% K%, 9 doubles, 0 triples, 3 homeruns.
July 1st-End: 75 games, 246 PA, .230/.316/.429, 26bb/46k. ISO of .199. .253 BAbip. 10.6% BB%, 18.7% K%. 10 doubles, 3 triples, 9 homeruns.

He turned 25 in September and is entering his prime. He hit for considerably more power while walking more and striking out less in the 2nd half. I think he's a prime candidate for a breakout season but I've loved him for a long time.
 

chawson

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Margot has shown no signs of breakout in his batting profile and has never been able to hit righties. I can understand the prospect love, but I think we’re better off letting Dombrowski collect the W on that one.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Margot has shown no signs of breakout in his batting profile and has never been able to hit righties. I can understand the prospect love, but I think we’re better off letting Dombrowski collect the W on that one.
Reacquiring Margot doesn't mean DD lost. He clearly won. I'm just not sure how much the team is going to get for David Price beyond salary relief.
 

shaggydog2000

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Jackie Bradley Junior in his last 3 seasons by WRC+: 89 90 90

Manuel Margot in his last 3 seasons by WRC+: 90 81 82

I don't see an upgrade there. Sure JBJ is 29 and incredibly unlikely to get better at his age. But after three seasons without improvement, I don't see Margot at 25 of being all that likely to improve either.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Jackie Bradley Junior in his last 3 seasons by WRC+: 89 90 90

Manuel Margot in his last 3 seasons by WRC+: 90 81 82

I don't see an upgrade there. Sure JBJ is 29 and incredibly unlikely to get better at his age. But after three seasons without improvement, I don't see Margot at 25 of being all that likely to improve either.
Do you think it's likely to be a downgrade? I think it's most likely treading water but Margot will be considerably cheaper than Bradley.
Do you think they can get more for Price?
 

bosockboy

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Price and JBJ for Pollock and a prospect makes a ton of sense for both sides. We get to dump two problem salaries and fill CF and pocket the difference.
 

shaggydog2000

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Do you think it's likely to be a downgrade? I think it's most likely treading water but Margot will be considerably cheaper than Bradley.
Do you think they can get more for Price?
It looks like he's a step down offensively next year, which is the only year we would have Bradley for. It looks like defensive value for the two of them is a wash over the last three years if you include margin of error. In three years Bradley and he might be equal in value. Maybe. And it would save us ~$9 mil next year. Then you get two years of arbitration on a mediocre CF. If the Sox traded for him and JBJ was sent packing, the second Margot stepped off the plane the conversation would be about how we could go about replacing him with somebody better. I don't like trading for a starter who you know isn't good enough to be a long term starter for your team, it just doesn't solve anything. If the idea was to trade Price for a prospect of some moderate value, or for a guy who would be a platoon player or a backup with a designated skill set I'd be fine with it. But trading for him with the idea that you'd then trade Bradley just changes a somewhat expensive adequate player to an inexpensive inadequate player.

I get that we may not get much in return for Price if the other team takes the full contract without sending back significant salary (which is best for us), but I just don't see the added value of Margot. He's just creating another concern.
 

scottyno

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Yes, but does it make way more sense to Mookie? We won't know till next winter. So we can't really think of it in terms of "keeping Mookie". We have to think of it in terms of a gigantic offensive/defensive hole in the OF that we're going to have to fill next winter, with Mookie being one possible candidate to fill it. Or to put it another way, think of Mookie's long-term prospects with the Sox the same way as if he were an upcoming FA who played for another team.
While this is true, we, at least we the general public, don't have much reason to think Mookie won't pick the Sox over another team if the offers are the same, so he's not the same as a free agent from any other team that they have to sell on Boston. The only way I'd ever trade Betts is if I basically knew for sure he was determined to leave no matter what the Sox offered him.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Price and JBJ for Pollock and a prospect makes a ton of sense for both sides. We get to dump two problem salaries and fill CF and pocket the difference.
This actually makes too much sense for it to happen.

For what its worth there was a random poster on Reddit early yesterday on the Angels subforum that called Cozart being traded and the Angels were out on Cole. The other piece of info was that David Price would be traded to the Angels. The poster a couple hours later deleted their account. This was also before Passan mentioned Price was being targeted for a trade...something to watch I guess. But the Cozart thing coming out of left field makes me think that there might be something to this.

Not sure what the Angels could trade for Price that would make it worth it for the Sox to eat some salary.
 

FredCDobbs

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My prediction:

We get some sort of better trade for Price than we're forseeing, as I can see the Angels, Cards, and Twins off the top of my head coveting him. Team trading pays almost all of the money and we get something good back.

JBJ traded in a meh deal.

We re-set the tax.

Mookie hits free agency and ends up leaving for over $400 mil. I'll say the Mets with the new money coming in.
 

chawson

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This actually makes too much sense for it to happen.

For what its worth there was a random poster on Reddit early yesterday on the Angels subforum that called Cozart being traded and the Angels were out on Cole. The other piece of info was that David Price would be traded to the Angels. The poster a couple hours later deleted their account. This was also before Passan mentioned Price was being targeted for a trade...something to watch I guess. But the Cozart thing coming out of left field makes me think that there might be something to this.
Jake Wesley strikes again!

Price (and JBJ) to LAD for Pollock might make sense, except Pollock can’t play center anymore and might not even be an average left fielder either. Like Myers, his AAV ($12m) is lower than his 2020 annual salary ($16), so it favors our situation.

I posted upthread that they might trade Price straight up for Pollock and Kelly, which still saves them more than $10m against the tax, and then trade Benny for a starter, but that may be less possible now with Mazara flipped and Marte, Rosario and Nimmo all reportedly on the market.

Not sure what the Angels could trade for Price that would make it worth it for the Sox to eat some salary.
Not much. If Bloom has a deal in hand to trade Benny for, let’s say, Matthew Boyd, then maybe trading Price for Upton straight up makes some sense, with Upton moving to DH if/when JDM opts out next year. I still think Price is undervalued, but I could live with that swap.
 

BaseballJones

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You wouldn't need Pollock to play center. Mookie would be an all-star level fielder (and obviously an elite elite level hitter) as a center-fielder.
 

YTF

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This actually makes too much sense for it to happen.

For what its worth there was a random poster on Reddit early yesterday on the Angels subforum that called Cozart being traded and the Angels were out on Cole. The other piece of info was that David Price would be traded to the Angels. The poster a couple hours later deleted their account. This was also before Passan mentioned Price was being targeted for a trade...something to watch I guess. But the Cozart thing coming out of left field makes me think that there might be something to this.

Not sure what the Angels could trade for Price that would make it worth it for the Sox to eat some salary.
Given they lost out on Cole and really need some top tier pitching one would think that the Angels would be in on Price, especially now that the market has been reset and his salary for three years doesn't look as bad as it may have a few weeks ago. The problem is that the Angels have so many other holes to fill and don't seem to have much in the way of excess. Maybe it takes a third team to work something out with LAA.
 

nvalvo

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Jake Wesley strikes again!

Price (and JBJ) to LAD for Pollock might make sense, except Pollock can’t play center anymore and might not even be an average left fielder either. Like Myers, his AAV ($12m) is lower than his 2020 annual salary ($16), so it favors our situation.

I posted upthread that they might trade Price straight up for Pollock and Kelly, which still saves them more than $10m against the tax, and then trade Benny for a starter, but that may be less possible now with Mazara flipped and Marte, Rosario and Nimmo all reportedly on the market.



Not much. If Bloom has a deal in hand to trade Benny for, let’s say, Matthew Boyd, then maybe trading Price for Upton straight up makes some sense, with Upton moving to DH if/when JDM opts out next year. I still think Price is undervalued, but I could live with that swap.

The problem with Justin Upton is that he is owed 3/$70m (a 21 AAV) and ended the year on crutches and getting a PRP injection into his knee.

When healthy, he's a good player, but his health questions worry me more than Price's.
 

high cheese

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behind a paywall but look whats coming to Boston! Kind of excited to see how it will play out
Nothing of note in the article, same regurgitation of practically every article since Bloom was hired. Not excited at all to become the Rays. The formula for winning Rings is players - really good players who can play in Boston. Flexible journeyman and openers on the cheap will win you 3rd place in the East with an occasional Wild Card/Playoff opportunity. Henry bragging that the Rays had won nearly as many games as the Red Sox over last X years makes me sick. It started last year with the bullpen by committee redo rather than make the obvious stud move of signing Kimbrel.
 

nattysez

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Nothing of note in the article, same regurgitation of practically every article since Bloom was hired. Not excited at all to become the Rays. The formula for winning Rings is players - really good players who can play in Boston. Flexible journeyman and openers on the cheap will win you 3rd place in the East with an occasional Wild Card/Playoff opportunity. Henry bragging that the Rays had won nearly as many games as the Red Sox over last X years makes me sick. It started last year with the bullpen by committee redo rather than make the obvious stud move of signing Kimbrel.
Are you aware of how Kimbrel pitched last year? Not re-signing him was one of DD's best moves of last off-season.
 

sean1562

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If Bloom can bring the strategies that helped a rays team with a third of our payroll win more games, that would be fantastic. Bloom is not meant to be a DD clone. The Rays had a 3.65 ERA as a team last year while ours was 4.70. Their team ERA was lower than the ERAs of like 90% of the pitchers on our entire squad. Who the hell was Emilio Pagan before last year? Really hope Bloom can pck the diamonds in the rough like Tampa's front office and Cashman have been doing.
 

high cheese

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Are you aware of how Kimbrel pitched last year? Not re-signing him was one of DD's best moves of last off-season.
If we sign him in a normal time frame and he has a normal spring training I believe he pitches fine. While starting pitching was a huge issue, we blew quite a few saves while he's sitting at home. Not only did we suffer losses but we didn't help our starters when we did pitch well enough to win.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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If we sign him in a normal time frame and he has a normal spring training I believe he pitches fine. While starting pitching was a huge issue, we blew quite a few saves while he's sitting at home. Not only did we suffer losses but we didn't help our starters when we did pitch well enough to win.
Did you see how he pitched in the 2018 postseason?

There's a good chance he is done. He certainly hasn't shown any signs of being "on" in over a year.
 

high cheese

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If Bloom can bring the strategies that helped a rays team with a third of our payroll win more games, that would be fantastic. Bloom is not meant to be a DD clone. The Rays had a 3.65 ERA as a team last year while ours was 4.70. Their team ERA was lower than the ERAs of like 90% of the pitchers on our entire squad. Who the hell was Emilio Pagan before last year? Really hope Bloom can pck the diamonds in the rough like Tampa's front office and Cashman have been doing.
UGH, give me proven guys that can get it done in Boston. Red Sox 4 rings since 2003. Rays 0 rings. Yanks 1 ring. Common denominator - really good, expensive players.
 

sean1562

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I mean, that was DDs MO. They didn’t bring in bloom to be a carbon copy of the last guy.
 
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Did you see how he pitched in the 2018 postseason?

There's a good chance he is done. He certainly hasn't shown any signs of being "on" in over a year.
From July 6 to August 29 in 2019 he had a 2.30 ERA and struck out 22 in 15.1 innings. Three of the four runs he allowed in that stretch were in one game.
If you're going to use the 10.2 inning sample size of the 2018 postseason to try to prove anything, then how about you counter it with a larger sample size where he was healthy and as dominant as ever?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Three rings between the two of them!
They were kind of a circus act.

While this is true, we, at least we the general public, don't have much reason to think Mookie won't pick the Sox over another team if the offers are the same, so he's not the same as a free agent from any other team that they have to sell on Boston. The only way I'd ever trade Betts is if I basically knew for sure he was determined to leave no matter what the Sox offered him.
Do we have much reason to think he will?

I'm not aware of any real evidence that he would consider staying in Boston as more or less attractive than any other option. Are you aware of such evidence, or are you just starting from the assumption that everyone has a preference for staying where they are, all other things being equal?
 

Max Power

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From July 6 to August 29 in 2019 he had a 2.30 ERA and struck out 22 in 15.1 innings. Three of the four runs he allowed in that stretch were in one game.
If you're going to use the 10.2 inning sample size of the 2018 postseason to try to prove anything, then how about you counter it with a larger sample size where he was healthy and as dominant as ever?
You're right. If you take out all his bad games, he's better than ever.
 

Teachdad46

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Um...not to throw a wrench into the Trade DP mechanism but...
We have a DH who is due to be paid a whole lotta green next year. He may well be worth it. On the other hand, we might be able to recoup a good deal of his potential WAR in-house. I propose that the Sox might be best served by offloading their estimable DH, thereby recouping his AAV towards their stated (?) goal of getting under the $208 luxury tax threshold, and then filling the DH hole from within.
Why trade a very possible solid or plus SP (DP) when your biggest need is SP depth?
 

scottyno

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They were kind of a circus act.



Do we have much reason to think he will?

I'm not aware of any real evidence that he would consider staying in Boston as more or less attractive than any other option. Are you aware of such evidence, or are you just starting from the assumption that everyone has a preference for staying where they are, all other things being equal?
Basically the second. He already has relationships with the players and the city, seemingly positive, and he's already had a large amount of success and is beloved in Boston.
 

DeadlySplitter

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while I don't mind Rich Hill, isnt he going through an alternative rehab to TJ with a fucked elbow? and won't be available until June/July?

hard pass.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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From July 6 to August 29 in 2019 he had a 2.30 ERA and struck out 22 in 15.1 innings. Three of the four runs he allowed in that stretch were in one game.
If you're going to use the 10.2 inning sample size of the 2018 postseason to try to prove anything, then how about you counter it with a larger sample size where he was healthy and as dominant as ever?
Max has already replied, but don't you think taking his numbers for September and October of 2018 plus all of 2019 is fair? Do you want that guy on a three year deal? Would you still be giving Daniel Bard chances?

I hope Kimbrell comes back to success. It is always more fun to watch excellent pitchers than average ones. But this team was better without him last year.
 
Jun 12, 2019
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You're right. If you take out all his bad games, he's better than ever.
You're missing the point. When he was healthy, he was back to his old self. Three bad games after a long layoff. Three bad injury-affected games before he went on the DL. As dominant as ever for the seven weeks in between. Yet people are writing him off as "done".
 

Tyrone Biggums

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while I don't mind Rich Hill, isnt he going through an alternative rehab to TJ with a fucked elbow? and won't be available until June/July?

hard pass.
Depends on the price. Hes nails when healthy. If he wants to come here for 2 million plus incentives then you sign him and hope he ends up hitting those incentives. If its 1 year 8 mil? Then let someone else roll the dice.

If you're going to roll the dice on a pitcher rehabbing then sign Betances. His K rate when healthy is insane and knows how to pitch in the division.
 
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mauf

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From July 6 to August 29 in 2019 he had a 2.30 ERA and struck out 22 in 15.1 innings. Three of the four runs he allowed in that stretch were in one game.
If you're going to use the 10.2 inning sample size of the 2018 postseason to try to prove anything, then how about you counter it with a larger sample size where he was healthy and as dominant as ever?
It wasn’t just the postseason. Kimbrel walked 15 in 21 2/3 innings after the All-Star Break in 2018 and posted a 4.57 ERA. There’s a reason no one was willing to part with a draft pick to sign him to a multiyear deal last offseason.

Kimbrel had some elbow issues last season, so I don’t think any conclusions can be drawn from his struggles in Chicago, but he’ll be 32 in May and hasn’t been the great reliever we think of when we hear the name “Craig Kimbrel” in a couple years. There’s a decent chance he’s cooked.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It's amusing at this point that people are still pointing to the decision to not re-sign Kimbrel as a reason the team struggled in 2019. Even having Kimbrel at the back end, healthy or not, wouldn't have magically improved the starting pitching's inability to consistently get the game to the bullpen with a lead and a short amount of work (9 or less outs) to get the job done.

A $15M a year closer would have been wasted on the 2019 team.
 

DeadlySplitter

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2B emergency depth? would have thought we'd try a reliever as that's more likely to survive a 26-man all season?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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