2020 Patriots Draft Prospects

[EL Jeffe]

I finally got around to Tee Higgins. He might be the captain of my Why are We Overthinking This team. Honestly, he was so impressive. I watched A&M, South Carolina and Virginia and all I saw was a #1 WR. Long, crazy catch radius, great body control. He separated against press and zone, intermediate and deep. Really good stop and start, and smooth in his transitions. I guess the knock is speed and separation but I saw no issues in the three games. Not doing the combine is a red flag, but the tape is what it is. 6'4, 215#, productive from an elite program. I still like Juedy better, but Higgins was very impressive.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Chase Claypool, I had him at a 6.5 - quality role player as a big slot. I thought he was going to run at 4.58 (not posted to SOSH but somewhere else so I can cite it if need be). In other words I thought he was going to relatively fast for a big guy. I didn't see him as a 4.45. Could he be a starting slot? Maybe. I think with him he needs to work on his blocking (Edit: blocking if he wants to be more than just a slot and get some TE lite work in and even as a slot even if at that position it isn't that important) but I think he gets a bump from 6.5 to 7.0. He ran and did some work as an X at Notre Dame even if he struggled with press and looked like his best fit was a big slot (he had success there). I think he deserves consideration sometime later on in day 3 given that he might be someone who can play a variety of roles in the offense. He is definitely a red zone threat and I like him as a vertical threat from the slot too.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Don't write-off AJ Epenesa:

Thanks to Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) for posting these RAS scorecards.

Here are AJ's scores graded on a DL curve:



Here are AJ's scores graded as an edge:




We know from this piece what is important for DTs under 310:

Height (positive coefficient), weight (negative coefficient), BMI (positive coefficient), Weight Speed Score, 3-Cone (negative correlation).

AJE is tall for an edge and a tackle, has a small weight, good weighted speed, and a great 3-cone. Also when you look at his tape he excels lined up as an interior pass rusher. If he is going to boot inside 33%+ of the time you're going to get pro-bowl caliber play.

We knew he was going to test average. He uses his length, power, and good burst to soften the edge. His hand technique is also exceptional. He solves his problems differently than most edges. He is someone you can use in the stunt game too.

It's eerie how similar some of AJ's numbers are compared to Trey Flowers.



They both have long arms, are only 8 pounds apart, have 7.34 3-cones, and almost identical shuttles. Flowers was/is more explosive whereas Epenesa is the stronger of the two. Bench press is going away soon - it is worthless so please ignore that. If you take out bench press their overall athletic scores are even closer.

The Pats were able to get Flowers in the 4th but AJE is either going sometime day 1 or early day 2.

Epenesa has the ceiling of Trey Flowers, maybe more, maybe less. Somewhere around there. So what is that worth? Would you be comfortable gambling a late first or early 2nd? I would. I'm not saying he should be the pick at 23 or if they trade back whenever they pick but I wouldn't be unhappy if that is what materialized. The ideal situation would be trading down from 23 into the 2nd and picking him up there.

Quick edit: he is a monster against the run. He’s going to start right away. And again please watch him playing in the interior. This year go to 9:49 of the YouTube of him vs IIRC Nebraska to see him destroy a guard with a push-pull move.

I look forward to hearing from DJ what the buzz is around him after the combine.

I’ve been thinking about this throughout the weekend. What is his value? What if his upside As a pass rusher is Trey Flowers, 6-8 sacks per year, an appropriate level of pressures and sometimes put in a favorable position on stunts so schemed up? Is that worth a pick in the 23-45 range assuming they either pick or trade back? I’m wrestling with it now. I didn’t post my edge grades here but I think I might move him from an 8.0 to a 7.99.

What do you all think?

 

[SMU_Sox]

I got through 20 edge guys and I am here to tell you after the top 7 there is a considerable drop-off:

1) Chase Young 8.75
2) YGM (Yetur Gross-Matos) 8.0 Aside from Chaisson he has the highest ceiling in the class and is most ready to start contributing day 1 with his run defense as he learns more about dropping back into coverage occasionally and works on his hand technique and counters. Prototypical size, length, speed, bend, and explosiveness.
3) AJ Epenesa 7.99 Where we ding AJ is his positional value. Would it surprise anyone here if AJE had an AJ Brown like slide to the back of the 2nd round? Not me. There isn't a ton of ceiling here but he will be a v solid player for a long time. He's a 5 tech.
4) Zach Baun 7.99 - Think Kyle Van Noy 2.0 and some of the best hands in the class. I wrote about him ere before so no need to repeat myself.
5) Chaisson 7.75 I've wrestled with where to put him for a while now. Here's his deal. He is an athletic freak and is surprisingly developed for someone who hasn't played that many snaps. He's someone who I don't have an issue with taking very early. But he needs even more time in the development machine than YGM so I put him here. He will excel vs the run so you could argue he belongs at 8.25 where I originally had him because he will start from day 1. I just worry that he won't start year 1 so that drops his grade a bit.
6) Okwara 7.75 Another high ceiling athletic OLB who is a prototypical size, length, build, speed, burst, bend, rusher. He is good in coverage. He has some technical issues and functional strength issues with tackling. You can see that lack of strength show up as he struggles to set an edge as well as hold the POA. Another guy who needs to develop his hands and counters.
7) Uche 7.5 A lot of the same positives and negatives as Okwara however he is not as long. Uche needs to stop exposing his chest to OTs because once they get a hold of him he is sunk. He also showed some natural fluidity in coverage as well. Same issues vs the run and needing to keep improving his hands and counters.
8.) Greenard 7.25 Long armed and powerful with good but still developing hands and counters. He can start right away. He can hold the POA against the run, set an edge, and as a pass rusher with his hand in the dirt has some juice to him. I like his floor but playing edge it's hard to have a high ceiling if you don't have the athleticism and bend to consistently win that way. Think a lighter version of AJ Epenesa who is not as polished. Fantastic tackler. He gets a hold of any body part and you are going down.
9) Anae 7.25 He's a lot like Baun but unfortunately is just not nearly as good of an athlete. He's a solid low tier starter. He is going to have to give up playing much in coverage due to his lack of athleticism. He such an impressive set of hand moves and counters. He "plays the game the right way" he just has mediocre length and a mediocre athletic profile.
10) Lewis 7.25 Injury concerns have stunted his development. He's raw but improved a lot over the course of 2019. Another guy whose calling card is strength. Has a medium ceiling. He has good burst. He has set a perfect edge and also got his clock cleaned by Thad Moss. Inconsistent. I am a big hands and counters guy and while you can watch that part of his game improve he has a v long way to go.
11) Coe 6.99 5-tech, big guy, wins with power and is great two-gapping against the run. Needs work in the pass rush game.
12) Jennings 6.99 - not a great scheme fit and has a low ceiling but is super polished and does everything right. I might be too low on him. Highly developed hands and counters.
13) Kareem 6.75 Long and can two-gap but not overly athletic and has a long way to go as a pass rusher.
14) Willekes 6.75 Not a good scheme fit, is more of a one gap penetrator. T-Rex arms.
15) Zuniga 6.75 Not a great scheme fit, T-Rex arms, wins with power and burst.
16) Weaver 6.49 I just don't get this guy. He tested ok but he looks lethargic on tape. Tons of missed tackles on tape. Great hands and counters though. You'd think I'd like him more.
17) Robinson 6.49 He's raw, athletic, needs to work on hands/counters and profiles as a rotational pass rusher. Burst and bend are v good. Can't hold up at the point of attack and poor tackler and tackling radius. Has processing issues.
18) Highsmith 6.49 He's a rotational pass rusher who actually has a high ceiling because he has a prototypical body and length as well as athletic traits of an edge/LB. He is a scheme fit for the Pats. Good processor and read-react is there. Super hot motor. He needs to learn how to drop into coverage. He is a team leader. Of the guys I have on day 3 Highsmith is probably my favorite. He's also a good tackler. His issue is functional strength and specifically the lack of it as well as needing development all over his game. I think Bill will like his character. He's my day 3 edge binkie.
19) Wonnum 5.49 Processing issues, poor angles, no functional strength, his pass rush plan is flawed. I don't have a lot of positive things to say minus he has good burst and speed but average bend. He's a guy you'd develop based on his size, build, and athletic profile but not my cup of tea.
20) (Darrell Taylor DISQ but would have been a 6.49) He has had on and off-field issues.

Bottom line? This edge class is... pretty uninspiring. Like the TE's lots of low ceiling guys or guys who might have a high ceiling but need a lot of development. To me this class starts to drop off significantly after Uche at least in terms of ceiling.

 

[EL Jeffe]

This is a great list, SMU. Excellent work, as always. The only places I see things a little differently from you:

Chaisson is my #2 edge player. Fully agree that he's raw and a project, but the ceiling is too high for me to put him behind the others. He has a special get-off, and he just moves differently than the other guys. He doesn't strike me at all as a typical NE 1st. round pick, so I'm not getting my hopes up. But man, he could be special.

I like Kareem a bit more than you do. He's tough and physical, and does strike me as a NE pick. I remember hearing him being described as the quintessential Baltimore pick, one of those PITA DL they always seem to get their hands on. That's him to me. Physical, long, will probably be a better rusher than what he's shown so far. He's at least a rotational player from the start. Clean selection.

Wonnum is a guy I'm on an island with. I see the frame and physical skills and think about what he could be vs. what he is. Then again, he reminds me a lot of Pierre Woods, so that's telling (I always thought Woods would turn into something, too.)

 

[SMU_Sox]

This is a great list, SMU. Excellent work, as always. The only places I see things a little differently from you:

Chaisson is my #2 edge player. Fully agree that he's raw and a project, but the ceiling is too high for me to put him behind the others. He has a special get-off, and he just moves differently than the other guys. He doesn't strike me at all as a typical NE 1st. round pick, so I'm not getting my hopes up. But man, he could be special.

Man he's a tough one because he clearly improved and had more responsibilities that he did well at as the season wore on. He is excellent against the run and setting an edge playing at 235 pounds. I want to put my thumb on the grading scale for him because I believe in Chaisson and his sky high ceiling. I will tinker with the rankings before the draft most likely and the first 5 guys are in a fluid situation minus Chase Young on top.

I want to listen to the John Ownings of the world and hear others opinions. He's going to be posting something today on Edges.

If I had to rank them for their ceilings: only 4 guys have that elite potential

1) Chaisson
2) Yetur Gross-Matos
3) Okwara
4) Baun

At the same time I think Baun has a higher floor than any of the guys above him. Floors:

1) Baun
2) Yetur Gross-Matos
3) Chaisson
4) Okwara

Not including AJ Epenesa because unlike the guys above him AJ won't be dropping into coverage. Also, I might need to drop Anae giving his testing was as mediocre as we thought it would be. Sad because Anae has such good instincts and hand technique. First round intangibles, hah.

The more I think about Highsmith the more I think the Pats are going to take him. 3 year captain, leader, motor as hot as anyone's in this entire years class regardless of position, etc. Hello day 3 lottery ticket.

Kareem is a good scheme fit - I like his power. My question is will he ever be more than a 4-6 sack guy with corresponding pressures or do you think he has some untapped ceiling?

 

[EL Jeffe]

I don't think Kareem is going to be a big sack guy, but he can play in a base D and handle run responsibilities. Length and power is generally a pretty good combo, and I think there's enough athletic ability to say there's some untapped upside in his rush. 4-6 sacks as a rotational end isn't a bad thing. I think he's a good third round pick; not sure if you had him in that range or not. I like him better than Jennings, Coe and Anae.

 

[SMU_Sox]

The more I think about this draft I think they are going to go defense heavy early on.

A few things for that: 1) The way the top tight end talent isn't there and the ones who are the guys at the top need a ton of development. Kmet and Trautman don't have the floors as some of the defensive players. You can get TE2 depth on day 3. 2) WR is super deep. Can wait for day 3. 3) Corner and safety also are deep and have depth into day 3. They have Froholdt and Cajuste and need to see what they can do along with vet help they hopefully bring in (at least some camp bodies).

Front 7 talent on D is very top heavy this year in the 2020 draft. I think with Hightower aging and with an expensive contract they are going to take a hard look at replacing him down the road with Malik Harrison. KVN Can go and be replaced by Zach Baun or Julian Okwara. I could see them trading back for Zach Baun, trading up for Malik Harrison and then getting Davon Hamilton in the third.

I think they need veteran guys on the offense to help Brady if he comes back so to make up for that they will invest draft capital on more immediate impact and highly polished and ready to go defenders.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Evan Weaver is someone I think they can grab most likely day 3 or end of day 2. Guy has incredible processing. I think he is going to be a high floor MIKE or WILL in the 3-4 scheme. He is so dominant against the run. Such a smart processor. Huge tackle radius and the guy is surprisingly agile around the LOS. I think his lateral mobility is under appreciated and he is not as horrific dropping back into coverage. NFL will undervalue him. Pats will probably overvalue him a bit - would be an immediate role player. Again really like his floor and think he could be a good old-school LB. His long speed will be an issue so having him paired up to slots or faster TEs or RBs could be a problem.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Looking forward to the OL assessments. As I start playing around with Fanspeak, I have a hard time letting one of the top OL (Wills, Wirfs, Benton, Thomas, maybe Jackson) go by if I’m picking at 23, and one of them always seems to get there. Very concerned about OL which was just okay last year and now stands to lose Thuney and Karras, with Andrews no sure thing. Meantime, it seems like there’s ample WR depth to wait and no TE justifies a first or second round pick.

Of course please bear in mind a.) my lack of expertise leaves me way out of my league in this exceptionally informative thread, and b.) I’d be fairly shocked if the Pats pick at #23 and then not again until #87. I‘m hoping they turn their first rounder and some Day 3 capital into a 2nd and a top 10 3rd. (Thanks, Mohammed!)

 

[Super Nomario]

Looking forward to the OL assessments. As I start playing around with Fanspeak, I have a hard time letting one of the top OL (Wills, Wirfs, Benton, Thomas, maybe Jackson) go by if I’m picking at 23, and one of them always seems to get there. Very concerned about OL which was just okay last year and now stands to lose Thuney and Karras, with Andrews no sure thing. Meantime, it seems like there’s ample WR depth to wait and no TE justifies a first or second round pick.

With respect to OL, in addition to Andrews' return (and presumably a full season from Wynn), we also have to consider that they used two mid-round picks last year on Cajuste and Froholdt. There's at least the potential for them to compete for the LG or a top backup spot. They definitely need a backup G / C, but I don't view it as a top need.

 

[EL Jeffe]

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them go OL in the first round, to be honest. They tend to like clean, high floor players in the 1st, and there could be good value there:

Becton
Jackson
Jones
Thomas
Wills
Wirfs

All six of those OTs look like 1st rounders. Jackson looks like more of a LT-only type, and might have a lower floor than what they'd normally like. The other five would probably all be in play at #23, if they were around. Jones and Jackson probably have the best chance (I prefer Jones) of making it to #23. I could certainly see them taking a 1st round OT as a day one RT starter and moving on from Cannon (and letting Cajuste and a Newhouse type battle it out for swing OT).

For interior OL, they do have Froholdt and Eluemunor coming back (with the later being an RFA, I believe). Eluemunor was disappointing, but he does have talent. If Karras and Thuney both leave, I imagine they're looking at a high floor Day 2 pick, a trade, or an undervalued FA option. None the IOL in this draft class look like a good value for #23. But there are definitely some solid Day 2 guys.

 

[Super Nomario]

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them go OL in the first round, to be honest. They tend to like clean, high floor players in the 1st, and there could be good value there:

Becton
Jackson
Jones
Thomas
Wills
Wirfs

All six of those OTs look like 1st rounders. Jackson looks like more of a LT-only type, and might have a lower floor than what they'd normally like. The other five would probably all be in play at #23, if they were around. Jones and Jackson probably have the best chance (I prefer Jones) of making it to #23. I could certainly see them taking a 1st round OT as a day one RT starter and moving on from Cannon (and letting Cajuste and a Newhouse type battle it out for swing OT).

For interior OL, they do have Froholdt and Eluemunor coming back (with the later being an RFA, I believe). Eluemunor was disappointing, but he does have talent. If Karras and Thuney both leave, I imagine they're looking at a high floor Day 2 pick, a trade, or an undervalued FA option. None the IOL in this draft class look like a good value for #23. But there are definitely some solid Day 2 guys.

Cajuste might be a LG option, too. His height / length is a little below average for OT and some of the scouting reports had him there.

I'm not wild about letting Cannon go - he's still got more than $5 MM in bonus money that would hit the cap as dead money, he's still pretty good when he's healthy, and they're going to have enough OL turmoil with Thuney (presumably) gone and questions about Andrews' health. If they take a OT at 23, they could use him as a swing tackle as a rookie; that's what they did with Vollmer and Solder, though both wound up playing some with injuries.

 

[EL Jeffe]

I don't know that Cajuste is below average in height and length. 6'4 7/8", 34" arms, 82 1/4" wingspan. I think those are all about what you'd expect from an NFL OT.

That said, I don't love the idea of moving on from Cannon either. $5m in dead money is a lot to eat, and when healthy, he's still a winning starting OT in this league. Devil's advocate, he hasn't been particularly durable (though credit to his toughness, he's played through a lot of bumps and bruises the past 2 years), he's getting up in years, he just switched agents, and beyond the dead money, they save about $4.5m moving on from him. So if there is an OT on the board at #23 that they really like, I could certainly see that scenario playing out. Not my first choice, but plausible.

 

[Super Nomario]

I don't know that Cajuste is below average in height and length. 6'4 7/8", 34" arms, 82 1/4" wingspan. I think those are all about what you'd expect from an NFL OT.

I think his build works either way. Per mockdraftable, he's only 16th percentile for height but he's 42nd percentile for arm length and 45th for weight, so he's in shouting distance of average. But that build also works at G - he's 62nd for height, 47th for weight, 76th for arm length. I would not rule him out at either position. I'm just pointing out that he could be in the mix at LG given that there's no obvious starter there.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I am only 3 IDL's in (Derrick Brown, Neville Gallimore, and Javon Kinlaw) but I have a hot take that I wanted to share with you all.

Javon Kinlaw is a better prospect for the Patriots than Derrick Brown. Here's why: Kinlaw is a better scheme fit. Kinlaw can 2-gap and anchor better than Brown. Brown is on the ground a lot. Also Brown gets uprooted vs double teams much more than Kinlaw. Brown gets overextended too often. Side note: I don't care about Brown's agility drills at the combine. On tape he is nimble and can get around tight corners quickly. I think he just didn't have good drills that day. He is a good to great athlete for his size. End of side note. Kinlaw has all the traits the Patriots like in a 3-4 DE. His power is elite too. He's another guy if we got at 23 and didn't trade back I would be over-the-moon.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Just for shits and giggles this is my board so far for those following along:

Name	Position	Grade	Position Rank	Overall Rank
Chase Young	Edge	8.75​	1​	1​
Isaiah Simmons	Off-Ball LB	8.75​	1​	2​
Ceedee Lamb	WR	8.5​	1​	3​
Henry Ruggs III	WR	8.5​	2​	4​
Javon Kinlaw	IDL	8.5​	1​	5​
Derrick Brown	IDL	8.5​	2​	6​
Jerry Jeudy	WR	8.49​	3​	7​
Justin Jefferson	WR	8.25​	4​	8​
Denzel Mims	WR	8.25​	5​	9​
Zach Baun	Edge	8​	2​	10​
Malik Harrison	Off-Ball LB	8​	2​	11​
Kenneth Murray	Off-Ball LB could do some edge	8​	3​	12​
Michael Pittman	WR	7.99​	6​	13​
Quintez Cephus	WR	7.99​	7​	14​
KJ Hamler	WR	7.99​	8​	15​
Tyler Johnson	WR	7.99​	9​	16​
AJ Epenesa	Edge/IDL	7.99​	3​	17​
Justin Madubuike	IDL	7.99​	3​	18​
Marlon Davidson	IDL	7.99​	4​	19​
Patrick Queen	Off-Ball LB	7.99​	4​	20​
Devin Duvernay	WR	7.75​	10​	21​
Jalen Reagor	WR	7.75​	11​	22​
Brandon Aiyuk	WR	7.75​	12​	23​
Cole Kmet	TE	7.75​	1​	24​
Chaisson	Edge	7.75​	4​	25​
Yetur Gross-Matos	Edge	7.75​	5​	26​
Julian Okwara	Edge	7.75​	6​	27​
Ross Blacklock	IDL	7.75​	5​	28​
Laviska Shenault	WR	7.5​	13​	29​
Bryan Edwards	WR	7.5​	14​	30​
Jauan Jennings	WR	7.5​	15​	31​
Tee Higgins	WR	7.5​	16​	32​
Uche	Edge	7.5​	7​	33​
K.J. Hill	WR	7.25​	17​	34​
Greenard	Edge	7.25​	8​	35​
Anae	Edge	7.25​	9​	36​
Lewis	Edge	7.25​	10​	37​
Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	7​	18​	38​
Chase Claypool	WR/TE	7​	19​	39​
Evan Weaver	Off-Ball LB	7​	5​	40​
Antonio Gibson	WR/RB	6.99​	20​	41​
Isaiah Hodgins	WR	6.99​	21​	42​
Adam Trautman	TE	6.99​	2​	43​
Kareem	Edge	6.99​	11​	44​
Neville Gallimore	IDL	6.99​	6​	45​
Raekwon Davis	IDL	6.99​	7​	46​
Leki Fotu	IDL	6.99​	8​	47​
James Lynch	IDL	6.99​	9​	48​
McTelvin Agim	IDL	6.99​	10​	49​
Jordyn Brooks	Off-Ball LB	6.99​	6​	50​
Logan Wilson	Off-Ball LB	6.99​	7​	51​
Devin Asiasi	TE	6.75​	3​	52​
Coe	Edge	6.75​	12​	53​
Willekes	Edge	6.75​	13​	54​
Zuniga	Edge	6.75​	14​	55​
Davon Hamilton	IDL	6.75​	11​	56​
Antonio Gandy-Golden	WR	6.5​	22​	57​
Rashard Lawrence	IDL	6.5​	12​	58​
James Proche	WR	6.49​	23​	59​
Van Jefferson	WR	6.49​	24​	60​
John Hightower	WR	6.49​	25​	61​
Lynn Bowden	WR	6.49​	26​	62​
Josiah Deguara	TE	6.49​	4​	63​
Harrison Bryant	TE	6.49​	5​	64​
Brycen Hopkins	TE	6.49​	6​	65​
Hunter Bryant	TE	6.49​	7​	66​
Alex Highsmith	Edge	6.49​	15​	67​
Anfernee Jennings	Edge	6.49​	16​	68​
Curtis Weaver	Edge	6.49​	17​	69​
Robinson	Edge	6.49​	18​	70​
Larrell Murchison	IDL	6.49​	13​	71​
Jordan Elliot	IDL	6.49​	14​	72​
Strnad	Off-Ball LB	6.49​	8​	73​
Willie Gay	Off-Ball LB	6.49​	9​	74​
Collin Johnson	WR	6.25​	27​	75​
CJ O'Grady	TE	6.25​	8​	76​
Albert O	TE	6.25​	9​	77​
Colby Parkinson	TE	6.25​	10​	78​
Cameron Brown	Off-Ball LB	6.25​	10​	79​
Lawrence Cager	WR	6​	28​	80​
Jason Strowbridge	IDL	6​	15​	81​
Gabriel Davis	WR	5.99​	29​	82​
Raequan Williams	IDL	5.99​	16​	83​
Markus Bailey	Off-Ball LB	5.99​	11​	84​
Carter Coughlin	Off-Ball LB	5.99​	12​	85​
Joe Reed	WR	5.49​	30​	86​
Jeff Thomas	WR	5.49​	31​	87​
Wonnum	Edge	5.49​	19​	88​
Thad Moss	TE	5​	11​	89​
Jacob Breeland	TE	5​	12​	90​
Quartney Davis	WR	4.99​	32​	91​
Jarred Pinkney	TE	4.99​	13​	92​
Mitchell Wilcox	TE	4.99​	14​	93​
Isaiah Coulter	WR	4.5​	33​	94​
Sean McKeon	TE	4.5​	15​	95​
Tyrie Cleveland	WR	4.49​	34​	96​
Kalija Lipscomb	WR	4.49​	35​	97​
K.J. Osborn	WR	4.49​	36​	98​
Austin Mack	WR	4.25​	37​	99​
Aaron Parker	WR	4​	38​	100​
Marquez Callaway	WR	3.99​	39​	101​
Binjiman Victor	WR	3.99​	40​	102​
Aaron Fuller	WR	3.99​	41​	103​
Juwan Johnson	WR	3.5​	42​	104​
Kendrick Rogers	WR	3.5​	43​	105​
Nick Westbrook	WR	3.25​	44​	106​

 

[tims4wins]

So WRs are pretty good huh

 

[SMU_Sox]

So WRs are pretty good huh

Depth, breadth, and all kinds of flavor variety.

I have 3 solid blue chip kind of grades, 2 borderline 1st/high 2nd for 5 total. I then have 16 guys who I would define as day 2. So 21 WRs who are day 1 or 2. It's ri-fucking-diculous out there.

 

[tmracht]

Depth, breadth, and all kinds of flavor variety.

I have 3 solid blue chip kind of grades, 2 borderline 1st/high 2nd for 5 total. I then have 16 guys who I would define as day 2. So 21 WRs who are day 1 or 2. It's ri-fucking-diculous out there.

I
I would guess you'll have a few slip these to day 3 or should expect all 21 gone by day 2?

 

[Average Game James]

SMU - away from the top 4, your WR start to deviate quite a bit from a lot of the pundit rankings out there that I’ve seen. Curious if you think that’s because you’re actually a bit out of consensus (and implicitly there could be some really 3rd round steals at the position) or if the gap between the guys in the next tier is just really narrow to the point that the 8th, 9th, and 10th WRs off the board are basically just as good at 5-6-7...

 

[EL Jeffe]

I finally got around to Tee Higgins. He might be the captain of my Why are We Overthinking This team. Honestly, he was so impressive. I watched A&M, South Carolina and Virginia and all I saw was a #1 WR. Long, crazy catch radius, great body control. He separated against press and zone, intermediate and deep. Really good stop and start, and smooth in his transitions. I guess the knock is speed and separation but I saw no issues in the three games. Not doing the combine is a red flag, but the tape is what it is. 6'4, 215#, productive from an elite program. I still like Juedy better, but Higgins was very impressive.

Man, Tee Higgins had a BAD pro day workout. To the point where I don't think he goes in the 1st round any more. It's weird because on tape, you wouldn't project him as a subpar athlete. But I think we're at the point where we have enough data on athletic testing to say this is a big red flag. I still really like Higgins, but not at #23. If he's around in the 3rd, I absolutely take him based on tape, production and pedigree. But woof. That was a bad workout.

 

[EL Jeffe]

I'll also say that McKinney was generally the player I zeroed in on for #23 when I did mock drafts. With McCourty and Chung both signed through this season and next, I doubt they go safety in the 1st round now. I'm starting to gravitate towards Murray or Queen, 3-down, off-the-ball LBs since I'm expecting KVN, Collins and Roberts to all depart. That leaves DHT and Bentley. I like Terez Hall (practice squad, UDFA) but he obviously can't be counted on. I'm sure they'll bring in some reinforcements, but I expect either Queen or Murray to be there. Queen was more instinctive and better in coverage, Murray was the more explosive striker and closer to NE's physical prototype.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

So do folks think the Brady news affects how they approach the draft? My gut reaction as an armchair GM was to say they should double up on this historic WR class now that they don't need to make sure Brady has guys he can trust right away, but I'm sure it will be business as usual.

 

[SMU_Sox]

WR is a position that has a steeper learning curve than average translating into the NFL. I try to have a Patriots lens on these guys (as in who I think would do well with them vs their typical prototypes). The pundits really like Laviska Shenault, Jalen Reagor, and Brandon Aiyuk. I can see the allure with Aiyuk - guy has the tools to beat press, he is an excellent returner and he has a huge catch radius. Decent route runner too. I have a round 2 grade on him. I see Mims and Aiyuk as the best pure X receivers after Ceedee and Ruggs (if you play Ruggs as an X). Laviska is special after the catch - same with Reagor. The issues I have with him and Reagor are all before the catch. Laviska is a schemed touch guy right now. I see him as CP84 but without the high end speed. He's not a natural route runner. He also has a ton of overlap with Harry. He needs to learn to beat press too. I think Laviska is one of the more overrated prospects this year. Reagor I need to get back to and see more 2018 film but he's a Z. He had poor QB play this year. He's not a physical receiver but he is a YAC monster. He can't make contested catches. He has a problem with drops and hand technique catching the ball. He runs a very limited route tree. He isn't the kind of guy you attack the middle of the field with and if he anticipates contact his hands get even sloppier. He's a finese player. So for what the Patriots want their receivers to be able to do I do not think he is a good fit for them. I also think there is more risk with Reagor than is being acknowledged. I don't think Devin Duvernay is that far behind Reagor and you could probably get Duvernay in rounds 3+ whereas Reagor will be gone most likely in the top 50 picks.

I don't usually knock guys a ton for their testing but Tee Higgins is an X with 4.59 speed (4.54 prod day +0.05 for adjustment), only a 31 inch vertical jump, an even worse 1.66 10 yard split, and a 4.53 short shuttle. On film he makes a lot of contested catches using his tremendous wingspan. I like his tape - I think he is going to be a solid if not spectacular X.

Part of what I wanted to do this year was strike out or hit home-runs on my own. I know I am higher on Jauan Jennings, Devin Duvernay, Tyler Johnson, Quintez Cephus, and Michael Pittman than the pundits. Duvernay is a Z, Cephus is an X, Crabtree is an X/Slot, and Jennings and Johnson are big slots.

Let me talk about Cephus for a second. When you watch him on tape he looks fast. His form for the 40 was awful. When he retested at his pro-day he was a 4.56 which makes a lot more sense. Excellent hands, good routes, tremendous explosion, he beats press. He is a surprisingly advanced receiver. He also has the potential to be a fantastic blocker - his flaws are just technical right now and he has tremendous strength. He has had an off-field issue dismissed against him but he did miss 2018 because of it.

Jennings and Johnson are getting dinged because they are big slots with questions about their athleticism translating to the next level. Johnson didn't test and Jennings tested but poorly. Jennings was one of the best blocking receivers in the class. The guy can seal off LBs. Jennings is only 215 pounds but plays like a 230+ guy. His breaks are not crisp because his CoD isn't great but he works back to the QB and consistently manipulates DBs and/or boxes them out so that he has enough separation to make a catch. Will that translate to the NFL? I don't know. I know that he is always a YAC threat because he can break multiple tackles. He's fearless across the middle. Guy will take huge hits and hang onto the ball. You can probably get Jennings on day 3. You can also get Johnson day 3 too. Johnson has some character issues apparently although no one says what they are. Tyler Johnson has sick tape. His break-out age and dominator rating are in the top percentiles.

quick edit: sorry for the delayed reply @Average Game James dealing with a nasty stomach bug over here.

 

[EL Jeffe]

I haven't done a deep dive on the QBs this year. My man crush on Stidham is known, and I think the team likes Kessler as a backup more than the fans do. There's a lot of Brian Hoyer to Kessler, and that's not bad. That being said, my short thoughts on QB's I like:

1st: Herbert. Burrow is going #1 and Tua will be long gone. But if Herbert is there at 23, or slides to the point where trading isn't prohibitive, I go for it. His physical skills are special. I compared him to Josh Allen a few years back, and that holds. He needs to make faster decisions and progressions, but he's got some franchise QB skills.

3rd: Hurts. I've gone back and forth on him, but I can't deny the It Factor. The guys just wins. Had a really good combine, very athletic, and his coaches and teammates universally love him.

Day 3: Nate Stanley. Reminds me of Bortles, which sure, laugh at. But the tools are there if the other stuff gets sorted out. 6'4, 240# with 4.81 40 speed is nice combo. I watched him live against Michigan, and he looked worse than a camp body. Watched him live against USC in his bowl game, and he looked like the real deal. He had flotsam at the skill positions this year, and I think there's upside.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Tight end is probably the worst position group in the draft class. Now in all fairness I haven't gotten to QB, OT, IOL, and CB yet but easily the next thinnest group and especially at the top of the class is safety. I will post an update top 165-170 sometime tomorrow with a handful more Edge, IDLs, and LBs as well as 24 RBs and safeties . I'd be more active talking about guys and fits here but I just want to make all of my reports (which I do plan on publishing somewhere and linking here) first and I still have 100 or so to go.

You're looking at 4-5 starting caliber prospects at single high FS depending on how you feel about Grant Delpit: Antoine Winfield Jr (he is a prototypical Patriot) and Ashtyn Davis (another guy who Bill would love) lead the pack. Terrell Burgess can do all the safety roles including play single high well - and he is also good in the slot. He might be a swiss army knife safety and a safety 3 which is basically a starting role here BUT he might also be an above average but not a great starter at FS. Lastly Justin Blackmon after a medical and acclimation adjustment year 1 can possibly take over but he is relatively new as a CB convert in 2019. There are some split deep guys or people who could play a rotational role like Harmon or backup Chung/nickel or dime safety types but no true FS single high potential starters but those 4-5. Grant Delpit - I am out on him due to his injury history and issues with tackling.

Strong safety: The best prospect here is Xavier McKinney who does not have top end athleticism (a prototypical Patriot). The more I look at McKinney the more I think he is going to slide into mid day 2. He's undersized for a SS and doesn't have elite long speed (his speed in general is lagging but he makes up for it with his elite processor). After McKinney it's to Burgess (I think he is a better fit as a FS not a SS but he can do SS at a starting caliber too) and then a huge drop to Dugger and Chinn who are far away from contributing in coverage. The only other guy in consideration is Brandon Jones who is also undersized and not a great athlete for the position. You have some quality role players like Antoine Brooks Jr. who is like a freight-train coming downhill against the run but that's about it. I think the Pats would like love Brooks Jr. on special teams and against the run but would worry about his zone or him in man getting exploited in coverage. I still have 9 safeties to go but none of the rest of the guys I am looking at are ranked higher than like 180th or so of the 5 boards I pulled together to average. Average boards to figure out which prospects to watch is a good strategy but that's a side topic for a different day.

The only good news is that unlike tight ends a bunch of these safeties are proto-typical Patriots and great fits here as starters or role-players as pointed out above.

Edit: of course the next guy I watch is Daniel Thomas who has himself a nice ceiling as a nickel-back or SS, a floor as a core-4 STer, but he needs help with his processing, getting around traffic in the box, vision, run fills, etc.


Paging @EL Jeffe - Daniel Thomas, what's your take?

 

[SMU_Sox]

Finished RBs and Safeties - I am not sorting for rank among the tied clusters. I will do that at the end when I am done the rest of the positions.

Name	Position	Grade	Position Rank	Overall Rank	Cluster or Highest tie
Chase Young	Edge	8.75​	1​	1​	1​
Isaiah Simmons	Off-Ball LB	8.75​	1​	2​	1​
Ceedee Lamb	WR	8.5​	1​	3​	3​
Henry Ruggs III	WR	8.5​	2​	4​	3​
Javon Kinlaw	IDL	8.5​	1​	5​	3​
Derrick Brown	IDL	8.5​	2​	6​	3​
Jerry Jeudy	WR	8.49​	3​	7​	7​
Justin Jefferson	WR	8.25​	4​	8​	8​
Denzel Mims	WR	8.25​	5​	9​	8​
J.K. Dobbins	RB	8​	1​	10​	10​
Zach Baun	Edge	8​	2​	11​	10​
Malik Harrison	Off-Ball LB	8​	2​	12​	10​
Kenneth Murray	Off-Ball LB	8​	3​	13​	10​
Michael Pittman	WR	7.99​	6​	14​	14​
Quintez Cephus	WR	7.99​	7​	15​	14​
KJ Hamler	WR	7.99​	8​	16​	14​
Tyler Johnson	WR	7.99​	9​	17​	14​
Zach Moss	RB	7.99​	2​	18​	14​
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	7.99​	3​	19​	14​
Justin Madubuike	IDL	7.99​	3​	20​	14​
Marlon Davidson	IDL	7.99​	4​	21​	14​
AJ Epenesa	Edge/IDL	7.99​	3​	22​	14​
Patrick Queen	Off-Ball LB	7.99​	4​	23​	14​
Antoine Winfield Jr.	S	7.99​	1​	24​	14​
Xavier McKinney	S	7.99​	2​	25​	14​
Devin Duvernay	WR	7.75​	10​	26​	26​
Jalen Reagor	WR	7.75​	11​	27​	26​
Brandon Aiyuk	WR	7.75​	12​	28​	26​
Cole Kmet	TE	7.75​	1​	29​	26​
D'Andre Swift	RB	7.75​	4​	30​	26​
Ross Blacklock	IDL	7.75​	5​	31​	26​
Chaisson	Edge	7.75​	4​	32​	26​
Yetur Gross-Matos	Edge	7.75​	5​	33​	26​
Julian Okwara	Edge	7.75​	6​	34​	26​
Ashtyn Davis	S	7.75​	3​	35​	26​
Laviska Shenault	WR	7.5​	13​	36​	36​
Bryan Edwards	WR	7.5​	14​	37​	36​
Jauan Jennings	WR	7.5​	15​	38​	36​
Tee Higgins	WR	7.5​	16​	39​	36​
Jonathan Taylor	RB	7.5​	5​	40​	36​
A.J. Dillon	RB	7.5​	6​	41​	36​
Uche	Edge	7.5​	7​	42​	36​
Terrell Burgess	S	7.5​	4​	43​	36​
K.J. Hill	WR	7.25​	17​	44​	44​
Greenard	Edge	7.25​	8​	45​	44​
Anae	Edge	7.25​	9​	46​	44​
Lewis	Edge	7.25​	10​	47​	44​
Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	7​	18​	48​	48​
Chase Claypool	WR/TE	7​	19​	49​	48​
Cam Akers	RB	7​	7​	50​	48​
Evan Weaver	Off-Ball LB	7​	5​	51​	48​
Antonio Gibson	WR/RB	6.99​	20​	52​	52​
Isaiah Hodgins	WR	6.99​	21​	53​	52​
Adam Trautman	TE	6.99​	2​	54​	52​
Devin Asiasi	TE	6.99​	3​	55​	52​
Rico Dowdle	RB	6.99​	8​	56​	52​
Neville Gallimore	IDL	6.99​	6​	57​	52​
Raekwon Davis	IDL	6.99​	7​	58​	52​
Leki Fotu	IDL	6.99​	8​	59​	52​
James Lynch	IDL	6.99​	9​	60​	52​
McTelvin Agim	IDL	6.99​	10​	61​	52​
Kareem	Edge	6.99​	11​	62​	52​
Jordyn Brooks	Off-Ball LB	6.99​	6​	63​	52​
Logan Wilson	Off-Ball LB	6.99​	7​	64​	52​
Michael Warren II	RB	6.75​	9​	65​	65​
Davon Hamilton	IDL	6.75​	11​	66​	65​
Coe	Edge	6.75​	12​	67​	65​
Willekes	Edge	6.75​	13​	68​	65​
Zuniga	Edge	6.75​	14​	69​	65​
Brandon Jones	S	6.75​	5​	70​	65​
Antonio Gandy-Golden	WR	6.5​	22​	71​	71​
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	RB	6.5​	10​	72​	71​
Rashard Lawrence	IDL	6.5​	12​	73​	71​
John Hightower	WR	6.49​	23​	74​	74​
Lynn Bowden	WR	6.49​	24​	75​	74​
Harrison Bryant	TE	6.49​	4​	76​	74​
Josiah Deguara	TE	6.49​	5​	77​	74​
Brycen Hopkins	TE	6.49​	6​	78​	74​
Hunter Bryant	TE	6.49​	7​	79​	74​
Darrynton Evans	RB	6.49​	11​	80​	74​
Darius Anderson	RB	6.49​	12​	81​	74​
Eno Benjamin	RB	6.49​	13​	82​	74​
Larrell Murchison	IDL	6.49​	13​	83​	74​
Jordan Elliot	IDL	6.49​	14​	84​	74​
Alex Highsmith	Edge	6.49​	15​	85​	74​
Anfernee Jennings	Edge	6.49​	16​	86​	74​
Curtis Weaver	Edge	6.49​	17​	87​	74​
Robinson	Edge	6.49​	18​	88​	74​
Strnad	Off-Ball LB	6.49​	8​	89​	74​
Shaquille Quarterman	Off-Ball LB	6.49​	9​	90​	74​
Willie Gay	Off-Ball LB	6.49​	10​	91​	74​
Grant Delpit	S	6.49​	6​	92​	74​
Kyle Dugger	S	6.49​	7​	93​	74​
Justin Blackmon	S	6.49​	8​	94​	74​
Daniel Thomas	S	6.49​	9​	95​	74​
Antoine Brooks Jr.	S	6.49​	10​	96​	74​
Collin Johnson	WR	6.25​	25​	97​	97​
Van Jefferson	WR	6.25​	26​	98​	97​
CJ O'Grady	TE	6.25​	8​	99​	97​
Albert O	TE	6.25​	9​	100​	97​
Colby Parkinson	TE	6.25​	10​	101​	97​
Lamical Perine	RB	6.25​	14​	102​	97​
Mykal Walker	Off-Ball LB	6.25​	11​	103​	97​
Cameron Brown	Off-Ball LB	6.25​	12​	104​	97​
Tanner Muse	Off-Ball LB	6.25​	13​	105​	97​
K'Von Wallace	S	6.25​	11​	106​	97​
Jeremy Chinn	S	6.25​	12​	107​	97​
Lawrence Cager	WR	6​	27​	108​	108​
Deejay Dallas	RB	6​	15​	109​	108​
Anthony McFarland	RB	6​	16​	110​	108​
Jason Strowbridge	IDL	6​	15​	111​	108​
Jonathan Garvin	Edge	6​	19​	112​	108​
Casey Toohill	Edge	6​	20​	113​	108​
J.R. Reed	S	6​	13​	114​	108​
Reggie Robinson	CB/S	6​	14​	115​	108​
Shyheim Carter	S	6​	15​	116​	108​
Jaylinn Hawkins	S	6​	16​	117​	108​
Josh Metellus	S	6​	17​	118​	108​
James Proche	WR	5.99​	28​	119​	119​
Gabriel Davis	WR	5.99​	29​	120​	119​
Raequan Williams	IDL	5.99​	16​	121​	119​
Trevis Gipson	Edge	5.99​	21​	122​	119​
Markus Bailey	Off-Ball LB	5.99​	14​	123​	119​
Carter Coughlin	Off-Ball LB	5.99​	15​	124​	119​
Brian Cole II	S	5.99​	18​	125​	119​
Geno Stone	S	5.99​	19​	126​	119​
Patrick Taylor Jr	RB	5.75​	17​	127​	127​
Jalen Elliott	S	5.75​	20​	128​	127​
Joshua Kelley	RB	5.5​	18​	129​	129​
Jordan Fuller	S	5.5​	21​	130​	129​
Joe Reed	WR	5.49​	30​	131​	131​
Jeff Thomas	WR	5.49​	31​	132​	131​
JaMycal Hasty	RB	5.49​	19​	133​	131​
Wonnum	Edge	5.49​	22​	134​	131​
Thad Moss	TE	5​	11​	135​	135​
Jacob Breeland	TE	5​	12​	136​	135​
Broderick Washington	IDL	5​	17​	137​	135​
Quartney Davis	WR	4.99​	32​	138​	138​
Jarred Pinkney	TE	4.99​	13​	139​	138​
Mitchell Wilcox	TE	4.99​	14​	140​	138​
Javon Leake	RB	4.99​	20​	141​	138​
Michael Pinckney	Off-Ball LB	4.99​	16​	142​	138​
Jacob Phillips	Off-Ball LB	4.99​	17​	143​	138​
Alohi Gilman	S	4.99​	22​	144​	138​
Scottie Phillips	RB	4.75​	21​	145​	145​
David Woodward	Off-Ball LB	4.75​	18​	146​	145​
Isaiah Coulter	WR	4.5​	33​	147​	147​
Sean McKeon	TE	4.5​	15​	148​	147​
Tyrie Cleveland	WR	4.49​	34​	149​	149​
Kalija Lipscomb	WR	4.49​	35​	150​	149​
K.J. Osborn	WR	4.49​	36​	151​	149​
J.J. Taylor	RB	4.49​	22​	152​	149​
Austin Mack	WR	4.25​	37​	153​	153​
Raymond Calais	RB	4.25​	23​	154​	153​
Lavonte Bellamy	RB	4.25​	24​	155​	153​
Aaron Parker	WR	4​	38​	156​	156​
Marquez Callaway	WR	3.99​	39​	157​	157​
Binjiman Victor	WR	3.99​	40​	158​	157​
Aaron Fuller	WR	3.99​	41​	159​	157​
James Smith-Williams	Edge	3.99​	23​	160​	157​
Derrek Tuszka	Edge	3.99​	24​	161​	157​
Juwan Johnson	WR	3.5​	42​	162​	162​
Kendrick Rogers	WR	3.5​	43​	163​	162​
Nick Westbrook	WR	3.25​	44​	164​	164​

 

[EL Jeffe]

Edit: of course the next guy I watch is Daniel Thomas who has himself a nice ceiling as a nickel-back or SS, a floor as a core-4 STer, but he needs help with his processing, getting around traffic in the box, vision, run fills, etc.


Paging @EL Jeffe - Daniel Thomas, what's your take?

I'll be honest, Daniel Thomas didn't do a lot for me. I saw a lot of the hallmarks of a typical Day 3 safety; a bit tight in the hips, false steps in space. The further he got from the ball, the worse he looked. I think in NE's defense, he'd be playing the Chung role and I don't think he'd be remotely competitive against Chung or Phillips. If he has a future, it'd be as a core-4 STer who maybe develops as something more. I don't think he's nearly ready to cover NFL players and I'm not convinced he gets there.

Looking at your safety rankings, I'm higher on these guys than you are:

Wallace
Reed
Metellus
Stone

Reed is definitely a Day 3 safety I could see the Patriots liking. He has a lot of similarities to Harmon, in terms of physical skills/profile and playing style. I think he has a really good chance to carve out a nice career as a centerfield safety. Good range, good tackler, instinctive--does what you want back there. Athletically he's just okay, but he's got enough to make it.

 

[EL Jeffe]

SMU,

I think I see the edge class a bit different than you. This is how I'd stack them:

1st round grades:
Young (yeah right)
Chaisson (I'd run this pick to the podium)
Gross-Matos
Uche (I'm much higher on him than most, although Nagy also loves him)

2nd round grades:
Lewis
Okwara
Baun (think he's a bit overhyped)

3rd round grades:
Taylor
Zuniga (love his explosiveness)
Kareem
Anae
Robinson
Greenard
Jennings
Weaver

In fairness, I haven't looked too closely at Anae, Jennings, or Weaver. I did look at Highsmith, and he was a Day 3 guy for me; thought he was pretty bad against the run, not physical, stuck on blocks, and couldn't set an edge. He was quick off the snap and has some rush upside. Just too much of a Derek Rivers vibe.

 

[SMU_Sox]

@EL Jeffe love the list. As corny as it sounds that is the great thing about the draft is when you are projecting a guy to the next level two people could look at someone and have different takes.

Look at last year and Paris Campbell. We had people who wanted him as early as maybe late one and people like me who didn’t want him until day 3.

A few things I’d like to clarify. With Chaisson and 7.75s. 7.75s have first round talent, some guys like Chaisson have a lot of it. What holds me back with him is his hand work as a rusher is still developing and his coverage skills are really only in the back 5-7 games for LSU. Do you want to have him responsible for coverage at this point in his career? That makes me nervous. I am dinging him for sample size. His lack of production doesn’t bother me because I look for traits and not production. My 8’s and up I look at as the first round slam dunks. The 7.75s might be the next guys in the list instead of the 7.99s because the 7.75s might have the higher ceilings. I haven’t organized the order of guys at the same rank but I actually like Chaisson a lot and originally had him as an 8.25 (same with Yetur Gross-Matos). I got cold feet. He should be at the top of the 7.75s when I organize it. I may move him up. I have ranges for the prospects that I keep in my notes because I do reserve the right to change my mind. Of the people I interact with on the daily going over guys Chaisson, KJ Hamler, Cole Kmet, Adam Trautman, Antoine Winfield Jr., Neville Gallimore, Yetur Gross-Matos, and Justin Blacklock are the most divisive prospects. Another guy people are all over the place on is Bryan Edwards.

My 6.49 on Daniels reflects him being a core-4 ST with the potential to step into a 3rd safety role or backup SS role by year 2. That is a firm day 3 grade but round 4-5. I’ll be honest judging the day 3 guys is fucking hard. The guys where they are clearly not a starter BUT could they grow into one or be a backup? They take me longer to evaluate than a guy like Xavier McKinney or Chase Young.

I’m not that far behind you on Lewis or Uche. A 7.25 is a 2nd to 3rd round grade. Lewis has some injury history that is concerning and left him underdeveloped especially with his hands. His bend isn’t great for an edge and he’s not someone I would want going back into coverage. He has good power though - I like him more for a 4-3 team honestly but the thing that impressed me about him and Chaisson was how much better they got over the course of the season.

With Uche he exposes too much of his chest to tackles when he rushes. It’s going to limit his effectiveness. He needs to get less exposed and not give the tackle a target. His hands and counters are still a WIP. I would love him in the 2nd. I think he’s athletic AF and a quality Swiss Army knife player who can play all the LB roles.

Gross-Matos I have no qualms with taking in the first. Issues with him are when you look at his rushes his initial hand placement for the combos he tries to work are not ideal. His secondary counters are not as developed as you’d like and he also needs work in coverage. I’ve heard some chatter he is more of a 4-3 edge but I don’t think that is necessarily the case.

A word of caution on Nagy. Nagy is a great resource of information but his job is to hype up senior bowl players. He sometimes imo gets a little too jazzed up.

What makes you think Baun is overhyped? I see Baun as the next Kyle Van Noy and a perfect fit for our guys. Uche and Baun actually - they both could be on the field at the same time. Baun’s hands and counters are impressive. Maybe only Curtis Weaver has better hands of the edges. Curious what your issues are with him. Are they against the run and holding the point of attack?

 

[EL Jeffe]

What makes you think Baun is overhyped? I see Baun as the next Kyle Van Noy and a perfect fit for our guys. Uche and Baun actually - they both could be on the field at the same time. Baun’s hands and counters are impressive. Maybe only Curtis Weaver has better hands of the edges. Curious what your issues are with him. Are they against the run and holding the point of attack?

In fairness, I watched two Baun games. I generally only have time to watch 2-3 on a player. That said, I didn't see the suddenness, twitch or explosion that others see. He's an easy mover, drops fluidly, and he's fast in a straight line. That's all good. But I didn't see an explosive get-off, or an explosive close to the ball. His 1.60 10 yard split suggests some explosion, but his mediocre jumps suggest otherwise. That was an odd testing result. I also worry a bit about his size. As a 5th year senior at a good strength training program, he's 238#. How much bigger is he going to get? He looks close to maxed out to me. I see a lot to like with Baun (hence my 2nd round grade), but I don't see a special attribute. I'm not sold he has the length, power, or explosion to play edge consistently.

As for Chaisson, I do see some special attributes. He does have the explosive get-off while being an easy mover. He's two classes younger than Baun, but already ~15# heavier. Do I trust Chaisson to do everything NE asks of their edge players? Nope, not as a rookie. As a rookie, I think he'd essentially have Wino's 2019 role. But I think he'd get there in a year or two, with an absolute elite ceiling. And by elite, I mean All-Pro type ceiling. A guy with his skillset has no business being around at #23, but it's possible that he will. No combine workout, RS sophomore. Some teams will get cold feet.

 

[Don Buddin's GS]

Adam Trautman from Dayton could be the answer for the Pats at TE:

https://franchisesports.co.uk/adam-trautman-new-england-patriots-should-draft-tight-end/

 

[DJnVa]

View: https://twitter.com/nbcsboston/status/1245447750835146752?s=21

 

[ehaz]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/02/sports/it-may-be-time-patriots-make-big-play-tua-tagovailoa-draft/
There's nothing to this, but what would a package look like? Edelman isn't worth a first rounder so he will barely make a dent (and you'd want Tua to have someone to throw to).

2020 1st, 2020 3rd, 2021 1st, JC Jackson, 2021 2nd? More?

 

[Super Nomario]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/02/sports/it-may-be-time-patriots-make-big-play-tua-tagovailoa-draft/
There's nothing to this, but what would a package look like? Edelman isn't worth a first rounder so he will barely make a dent (and you'd want Tua to have someone to throw to).

2020 1st, 2020 3rd, 2021 1st, JC Jackson, 2021 2nd? More?

I don't see the Pats making a big move up to three, but there are rumors (FWIW, which is not much; it's lying season) that teams are scared off Tua and he might slide a little. If he gets to 10 (where trade-back-happy Cleveland is picking), that might make sense. KC traded 27, 87, and a future 1 for 10 to get Mahomes a few years ago. So maybe 23, a third, 2021 1st, maybe get a day three pick back?

 

[jsinger121]

I think Tua is going to be a massive flop. Would never trade up for him. I honestly think with his hip issues he is a massive risk plus I think the talent around him propped him up to be something better than he really is.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Of course the world is filled with disinformation and misinformation, but Lombardi reported that Tua flunked medicals for more than one team -- and it wasn't only his hip, but there were also problems with his ankle and wrist.

View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2885764-tua-tagovailoa-rumors-qb-failed-at-least-1-physical-due-to-multiple-injuries


Some mocks have shown Tua available into the late teens, some even further. Of course a.) that's probably bullshit, and b.) if it were likely, the bad medicals would probably be more indicator of fire than smoke... but if 2020 is a lost season anyway, it could be worth rolling the dice.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I finished up my list. Some OL's are listed twice. One is for their first position the other is for their second. I got around to 254 prospects this year.

This is the scale I use. It doesn't have a round grade:



If I had to come up with a draft grade per the scale I see 8 and above as a first round grade. Then comes the 7.99 or 7.75. 7.75 guys probably have higher upside but are bigger risks - whereas 7.99 guys have a higher floor but might not have as high of a ceiling. I see the 7.99 and 7.75 guys as 2nd rounders. Also, if you went for a 7.75 guy over a safer 7.99 I get that - I think you can go from the 8's right to the 7.75 if you want to roll the dice. The 7-7.5 scores are roughly equivalent to a third round pick. 6.5-6.99 are 4th round, 6-6.49 are 5th rounders, 5-5.99 are 6th/7th rounders and the rest are UDFA's.

Here are the total numbers of players graded as:
1st rounders 8+: 19
2nd rounders 7.99: 15
2nd rounders 7.75: 22
Total 2nd rounders: 37
Total 3rd rounders 7-7.5: 26
Total 4th round picks: 6.5-6.99: 38
Total 5th round picks: 6-6.49: 55
Total 6th/7th round picks: 5-5.9: 42
UDFAs or below: 4.99 or under: 43

Name	Position	Grade	Position Rank	Overall Rank	Cluster or Highest tie
Joe Burrow	QB	8.75	1	1	1
Chase Young	Edge	8.75	1	2	1
Isaiah Simmons	Off-Ball LB	8.75	1	3	1
Jeffrey Okudah	CB	8.5	1	4	3
Javon Kinlaw	IDL	8.5	1	5	3
Ceedee Lamb	WR	8.5	1	6	3
Derrick Brown	IDL	8.5	2	7	3
Henry Ruggs III	WR	8.5	2	8	3
Jedrick Wills Jr.	OT	8.49	1	9	8
Jerry Jeudy	WR	8.49	3	10	8
Tua Tagovailoa	QB	8.49	2	11	8
Andrew Thomas	OT	8.25	2	12	11
Tristan Wirfs	OT	8.25	3	13	11
CJ Henderson	CB	8.25	2	14	11
Justin Jefferson	WR	8.25	4	15	11
Denzel Mims	WR	8.25	5	16	11
J.K. Dobbins	RB	8	1	17	16
Malik Harrison	Off-Ball LB	8	2	18	16
Zack Baun	Edge	8	2	19	16
Patrick Queen	Off-Ball LB	7.99	3	20	19
Michael Pittman	WR	7.99	6	21	19
Justin Madubuike	IDL	7.99	3	22	19
Marlon Davidson	IDL	7.99	4	23	19
AJ Epenesa	Edge/IDL	7.99	3	24	19
Antoine Winfield Jr.	S	7.99	1	25	19
Jeff Gladney	CB	7.99	3	26	19
Jaylon Johnson	CB	7.99	4	27	19
Xavier McKinney	S	7.99	2	28	19
Quintez Cephus	WR	7.99	7	29	19
Zach Moss	RB	7.99	2	30	19
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	7.99	3	31	19
Bryan Edwards	WR	7.99	8	32	19
Lloyd Cushenberry	OC/OG	7.99	1	33	19
Damien Lewis	OG	7.99	2	34	19
Mekhi Becton	OT	7.75	4	35	34
K'Lavon Chaisson	Edge	7.75	4	36	34
Ashtyn Davis	S	7.75	3	37	34
Josh Jones	OT	7.75	5	38	34
Robert Hunt	OT/OG	7.75	3	39	34
Devin Duvernay	WR	7.75	9	40	34
D'Andre Swift	RB	7.75	4	41	34
Cesar Ruiz	OC/OG	7.75	4	42	34
Ross Blacklock	IDL	7.75	5	43	34
Yetur Gross-Matos	Edge	7.75	5	44	34
AJ Terrell	CB	7.75	5	45	34
Justin Herbert	QB	7.75	3	46	34
Kenneth Murray	Off-Ball LB	7.75	4	47	34
Julian Okwara	Edge	7.75	6	48	34
Noah Igbinoghene	CB	7.75	6	49	34
Cole Kmet	TE	7.75	1	50	34
Jalen Reagor	WR	7.75	10	51	34
Laviska Shenault	WR	7.75	11	52	34
Brandon Aiyuk	WR	7.75	12	53	34
Isaiah Wilson	OT	7.75	6	54	34
Trevon Diggs	CB	7.75	7	55	34
Jordan Love	QB	7.75	4	56	34
Terrell Burgess	S	7.5	4	57	56
Kristian Fulton	CB	7.5	8	58	56
Tyler Johnson	WR	7.5	13	59	56
Cameron Dantzler	CB	7.5	9	60	56
KJ Hamler	WR	7.5	14	61	56
Matt Hennessy	OC	7.5	5	62	56
Tee Higgins	WR	7.5	15	63	56
John Simpson	OG	7.5	6	64	56
Jonathan Taylor	RB	7.5	5	65	56
A.J. Dillon	RB	7.5	6	66	56
Josh Uche	Edge	7.5	7	67	56
Nick Harris	OC	7.5	7	68	56
Davon Hamilton	IDL	7.25	6	69	68
Jonathan Greenard	Edge	7.25	8	70	68
K.J. Hill	WR	7.25	16	71	68
Cam Akers	RB	7.25	7	72	68
Bradlee Anae	Edge	7.25	9	73	68
Lucas Niang	OT	7.25	7	74	68
Terrell Lewis	Edge	7.25	10	75	68
Bryce Hall	CB	7.25	10	76	68
Damon Arnette	CB	7.25	11	77	68
Hakeem Adeniji	OT/OG	7	8	78	77
Amik Robertson	CB	7	12	79	77
Matt Peart	OT	7	8	80	77
Chase Claypool	WR/TE	7	17	81	77
Josiah Scott	CB	7	13	82	77
Jordan Elliot	IDL	6.99	7	83	82
Price Tega Wanogho	OT	6.99	9	84	82
Robert Hunt	OT/OG	6.99	10	85	82
Ezra Cleveland	OT	6.99	10	86	82
Logan Wilson	Off-Ball LB	6.99	5	87	82
Jonah Jackson	OC/OG	6.99	9	88	82
Troy Pride Jr	CB	6.99	14	89	82
Darnay Holmes	CB	6.99	15	90	82
Jalen Hurts	QB	6.99	5	91	82
Adam Trautman	TE	6.99	2	92	82
Javaris Davis	CB	6.99	16	93	82
John Reid	CB	6.99	17	94	82
Jauan Jennings	WR	6.99	18	95	82
Neville Gallimore	IDL	6.99	8	96	82
Khalid Kareem	Edge	6.99	11	97	82
Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	6.99	19	98	82
Antonio Gibson	WR/RB	6.99	20	99	82
Evan Weaver	Off-Ball LB	6.99	6	100	82
Devin Asiasi	TE	6.99	3	101	82
Isaiah Hodgins	WR	6.99	21	102	82
Rico Dowdle	RB	6.99	8	103	82
Leki Fotu	IDL	6.99	9	104	82
Jordyn Brooks	Off-Ball LB	6.99	7	105	82
Dane Jackson	CB	6.99	18	106	82
Ben Bartch	OT	6.75	11	107	106
Austin Jackson	OT	6.75	12	108	106
Michael Warren II	RB	6.75	9	109	106
Ben Bredeson	OG	6.75	10	110	106
Logan Stenberg	OG	6.75	11	111	106
Raekwon Davis	IDL	6.75	10	112	106
Jabari Zuniga	Edge	6.75	13	113	106
Brandon Jones	S	6.75	5	114	106
Lamar Jackson	CB	6.75	19	115	106
James Lynch	IDL	6.5	11	116	115
Lavert Hill	CB	6.5	20	117	115
Michael Ojemudia	CB	6.5	21	118	115
Antonio Gandy-Golden	WR	6.5	22	119	115
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	RB	6.5	10	120	115
Alex Highsmith	Edge	6.49	14	121	120
Jake Fromm	QB	6.49	6	122	120
Grant Delpit	S	6.49	6	123	120
Jacob Eason	QB	6.49	7	124	120
Kyle Dugger	S	6.49	7	125	120
Saahdiq Charles	OT	6.49	13	126	120
Alex Taylor	OT	6.49	14	127	120
Geno Stone	S	6.49	8	128	120
AJ Green	CB	6.49	22	129	120
Antoine Brooks Jr.	S	6.49	9	130	120
K'Von Wallace	S	6.49	10	131	120
Justin Strnad	Off-Ball LB	6.49	8	132	120
Shaquille Quarterman	Off-Ball LB	6.49	9	133	120
McTelvin Agim	IDL	6.49	12	134	120
Rashard Lawrence	IDL	6.49	13	135	120
Harrison Bryant	TE	6.49	4	136	120
Willie Gay	Off-Ball LB	6.49	10	137	120
Josiah Deguara	TE	6.49	5	138	120
Brycen Hopkins	TE	6.49	6	139	120
Larrell Murchison	IDL	6.49	14	140	120
Kenny Willekes	Edge	6.49	15	141	120
Hakeem Adeniji	OT/OG	6.49	15	142	120
Anfernee Jennings	Edge	6.49	16	143	120
Curtis Weaver	Edge	6.49	17	144	120
Netane Muti	OG	6.49	12	145	120
John Hightower	WR	6.49	23	146	120
Shane Lemieux	OG	6.49	13	147	120
Lynn Bowden	WR	6.49	24	148	120
Darrynton Evans	RB	6.49	11	149	120
Hunter Bryant	TE	6.49	7	150	120
Darius Anderson	RB	6.49	12	151	120
Alton Robinson	Edge	6.49	18	152	120
Harrison Hand	CB	6.49	23	153	120
Eno Benjamin	RB	6.49	13	154	120
Reggie Robinson II	CB	6.49	24	155	120
Jeremy Chinn	S	6.25	11	156	155
Tyre Phillips	OT/OG	6.25	14	157	155
Justin Blackmon	S	6.25	12	158	155
Collin Johnson	WR	6.25	25	159	155
CJ O'Grady	TE	6.25	8	160	155
Mykal Walker	Off-Ball LB	6.25	11	161	155
Albert O	TE	6.25	9	162	155
Van Jefferson	WR	6.25	26	163	155
Cameron Brown	Off-Ball LB	6.25	12	164	155
Lamical Perine	RB	6.25	14	165	155
Colby Parkinson	TE	6.25	10	166	155
Tanner Muse	Off-Ball LB	6.25	13	167	155
Jason Strowbridge	IDL	6	15	168	167
Jonathan Garvin	Edge	6	19	169	167
Deejay Dallas	RB	6	15	170	167
Lawrence Cager	WR	6	27	171	167
Anthony McFarland	RB	6	16	172	167
J.R. Reed	S	6	13	173	167
Reggie Robinson	CB/S	6	14	174	167
Casey Toohill	Edge	6	20	175	167
Charlie Heck	OT	5.99	16	176	175
Michael Onwenu	OG	5.99	15	177	175
Shyheim Carter	S	5.99	15	178	175
Tyler Biadasz	OC	5.99	16	179	175
Jon Runyan	OT/OG	5.99	17	180	175
Kindle Vildor	CB	5.99	25	181	175
Trevis Gipson	Edge	5.99	21	182	175
Jaylinn Hawkins	S	5.99	16	183	175
Stanford Samuels III	CB	5.99	26	184	175
Raequan Williams	IDL	5.99	16	185	175
Anthony Gordon	QB	5.99	8	186	175
James Proche	WR	5.99	28	187	175
Trey Adams	OT/OG	5.99	18	188	175
Markus Bailey	Off-Ball LB	5.99	14	189	175
Tremayne Anchrum	OT/OG	5.99	19	190	175
Josh Metellus	S	5.99	17	191	175
Danny Pinter	OG	5.99	20	192	175
James Morgan	QB	5.99	9	193	175
Gabriel Davis	WR	5.99	29	194	175
Carter Coughlin	Off-Ball LB	5.99	15	195	175
Daniel Thomas	S	5.99	18	196	175
Brian Cole II	S	5.99	19	197	175
Jack Driscoll	OT	5.75	16	198	197
Jalen Elliott	S	5.75	20	199	197
Calvin Throckmorton	OT/OG	5.75	21	200	197
Patrick Taylor Jr	RB	5.75	17	201	197
Javelin Guidry	CB	5.75	27	202	197
Colton McKivitz	OT	5.5	17	203	202
Joshua Kelley	RB	5.5	18	204	202
Jordan Fuller	S	5.5	21	205	202
Alohi Gilman	S	5.5	22	206	202
Essang Bassey	CB	5.5	28	207	202
Joe Reed	WR	5.49	30	208	207
Jeff Thomas	WR	5.49	31	209	207
DJ Wonnum	Edge	5.49	22	210	207
JaMycal Hasty	RB	5.49	19	211	207
Nick Coe	Edge	5.49	12	212	207
Keith Ismael	OC	5	22	213	212
Broderick Washington	IDL	5	17	214	212
Thad Moss	TE	5	11	215	212
Cole McDonald	QB	5	10	216	212
Jacob Breeland	TE	5	12	217	212
Calvin Throckmorton	OT/OG	4.99	18	218	217
Michael Pinckney	Off-Ball LB	4.99	16	219	217
Tremayne Anchrum	OT/OG	4.99	19	220	217
Quartney Davis	WR	4.99	32	221	217
Tyre Phillips	OT/OG	4.99	16	222	217
Darryl Williams	OC/OG	4.99	23	223	217
Tyler Huntley	QB	4.99	11	224	217
Jarred Pinkney	TE	4.99	13	225	217
Nate Stanley	QB	4.99	12	226	217
Javon Leake	RB	4.99	20	227	217
Jacob Phillips	Off-Ball LB	4.99	17	228	217
Mitchell Wilcox	TE	4.99	14	229	217
Scottie Phillips	RB	4.75	21	230	229
Trey Adams	OT/OG	4.75	20	231	229
Terence Steele	OT/OG	4.75	21	232	229
David Woodward	Off-Ball LB	4.75	18	233	229
Isaiah Coulter	WR	4.5	33	234	233
Sean McKeon	TE	4.5	15	235	233
Cameron Clark	OT/OG	4.5	24	236	233
Tyrie Cleveland	WR	4.49	34	237	236
Jake Hanson	OC/OG	4.49	25	238	236
Kalija Lipscomb	WR	4.49	35	239	236
K.J. Osborn	WR	4.49	36	240	236
J.J. Taylor	RB	4.49	22	241	236
Cohl Cabral	OC	4.25	26	242	241
Kyle Murphy	OG/OC	4.25	27	243	241
Austin Mack	WR	4.25	37	244	241
Raymond Calais	RB	4.25	23	245	241
Lavonte Bellamy	RB	4.25	24	246	241
Aaron Parker	WR	4	38	247	246
Simon Stepaniak	OG	4	28	248	246
Marquez Callaway	WR	3.99	39	249	248
James Smith-Williams	Edge	3.99	23	250	248
Justin Herron	OT/OG	3.99	29	251	248
Binjiman Victor	WR	3.99	40	252	248
Aaron Fuller	WR	3.99	41	253	248
Derrek Tuszka	Edge	3.99	24	254	248
Steven Montez	QB	3.99	13	255	248
Yasir Durant	OT/OG	3.75	30	256	255
Solomon Kindley	OG	3.75	31	257	255
Juwan Johnson	WR	3.5	42	258	257
Kendrick Rogers	WR	3.5	43	259	257
Nick Westbrook	WR	3.25	44	260	259

I am working on identifying the best fits for the Pats as well in one to view post here and not a massive spreadsheet. I did try to organize this with a Patriots lens.

 

[EL Jeffe]

Just a ridiculously impressive accomplishment, SMU. This is genuinely awesome. There's a ton of guys I'd want to pick your brain on. Right now, I'm a bit fixated on Zuniga. As a couch scout, he's hard for me to evaluate so I'm curious how you saw him. His junior year, all the athletic and talent flashes were there but I thought he was much too passive; lots of standing around and watching plays happen instead of hitting people. As a late basketball to football convert, I guess that makes sense. His senior year though, it's like a switch flipped and he was significantly more active and physical, the motor ran much hotter. Now, he only played a few games this past year due to the ankle, so who knows if it would have held up. But if I went solely off the Miami and UVA games and never saw his underclassman games, I'd think he was a 1st rounder. He destroyed Miami, they couldn't handle him. What did you make of Zuniga? For me, the upside is really high if the senior year motor is real and sustainable.

 

[SMU_Sox]

The problem with Miami @EL Jeffe is their OL was trash this year. Jon Greenard went off on them too. Zuniga is an interesting guy. He has fantastic burst and speed but has a lot of hip stiffness and not that much bend. His pass rush plan is nothing to write home about and he doesn't have good counters. He exhibits tremendous power at the point of attack but gets stuck on blocks and needs work shedding. He also unfortunately has short arms and that with his limited lateral agility make tackling an issue. I think he has starting potential but like Terrell Lewis needs a lot of technical refinement.

 

[BigJimEd]

Baun had a "diluted" sample at the combine. Claims it was due to drinking significant amount of water before weigh in.

 

[Marciano490]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/from-nothing-to-something-robert-hunts-improbable-journey-from-one-stop-sign-town-to-the-nfl-175553709.html
A great article on Robert Hunt, who I’d love on the Pats after reading.

 

[SMU_Sox]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/from-nothing-to-something-robert-hunts-improbable-journey-from-one-stop-sign-town-to-the-nfl-175553709.html
A great article on Robert Hunt, who I’d love on the Pats after reading.

He happens to be a guy I am pretty high on. Year one he has to go from running either all or almost all zone plays with the RCs to learning how to block in man concepts. I hit him with a 7.75 because he has unique potential to be an interior wrecking ball. He also has to go from RT most likely to guard. Why am I comfortable with that? Because what the Patriots want from their guys is smart, powerful, athletic enough and tough. That’s Hunt to the letter. He doesn’t just want to block you he wants to completely erase you and give you nightmares for years to come. There were probably 5-10 tackles and IOLs that I chuckled at how ferocious they were. Hunt is near the top of that pack. His mirroring ability in pass pro was good too and he rarely let up any pressure. His vulnerability against super fast edge rushers is overblown to begin with but is erased at guard. My only concern with him is that he doesn’t meet their standard guard prototypes because he is bigger and slightly less athletic. Liking Robert Hunt is like liking a good craft beer. I like your taste. If you liked him let me give you another beer recommendation: Logan Stenberg, guard and taker of souls. Not a great fit here and probably not a starter and certainly not in year one but just for his tape. If Robert Hunt is an IPA Logan Stenberg is the hoppiest IPA there is in and maybe too hoppy for mass market success (as a starter in the nfl).

 

[Super Nomario]

We doing a "guess the Pats' picks" contest again this year?

 

[EL Jeffe]

I haven't done any type of deep dive on the prospects yet. I watched two ND games this weekend (UGA, VT) for Kmet; his blocking wasn't as good as I anticipated (although it looked better against VT later in the year). Physically, he looks really good and moves well. Good ball skills, some toughness. He's definitely not Hockenson as a prospect, but he reminded me some of Zach Ertz coming out of Stanford. I don't think Kmet is ready for prime-time as a rooke, so 23 might be a tad rich. But as TE1, he could easily get pushed up the board to that range.

Some momentum is building for Kmet in round 1, and Breer mocked him to NE today. As I said several weeks ago, 23 seems a bit high for him, but I thought he could end up getting pushed that high. Looks like that may be happening. Honestly, I wouldn't hate it. TE is the weakest area on the team--by far--and Kmet is TE1 by a good margin for me. Physically, he has just about all the tools but I don't think he'll be ready to block NFL edge players as a rookie. He's not Gronk strong. But I do think he'll eventually be at least league-average as a blocker (with the potential to be better than that). In the passing game, he should be a matchup problem at 6'6, 262#, 10.5" hands, 4.7 40, and a 37" vertical. Those are legit numbers.

For essentially a 1-year producer, I think he's a reasonably safe projection. He does have a really nice physical profile, he did get substantially better each season, and as a legit two sport collegiate athlete who gave up baseball recently, 100% dedication to football could certainly make a difference for him going forward. I'd rather pick him in the 40s, but the TE class is so weak I'm not sure you can afford to miss out on him.

 

[tims4wins]

I bet Kmet is off the board by 23. Similar to Hockenson last year, his stock continues to rise and some team will pick him earlier than he should really go.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Feels like people talking themselves into a TE just because he's the best in a really bad class. The value is just terrible, especially for a guy who doesn't really block. You can get a better weapon 70 picks later as a slot WR. Hockenson made sense because he was a good blocker so he had way more value.

Edit- to be more clear... unless a TE is a good blocker, he's basically a slot WR. And particularly in this draft you can get a good slot WR way later than a TE and have more on-field value.

 

[EL Jeffe]

Kmet definitely isn't Hockenson as a blocker, that's for sure. But I don't think it's fair to say Kmet doesn't really block; he does, he's just very inconsistent. Lots of lunging, ends up on the ground at times, loses his balance, etc. Other times, he looks really good. He needs reps, technique work, and added strength--though he weighed in at 262# at the combine but reportedly played at around 250#, so the added strength is on the way.

He's not Mark Andrews coming out of Oklahoma who just didn't bother blocking anyone. Kmet did a lot of Y work, but with very mixed results. He's a projection, but I'm a sucker for projections (Chaisson and Uche are two of my favorites in this class). As I said earlier, as far as projections go, Kmet is probably a safer bet than most. The floor is reasonably high just based on his physical profile and receiving production in a conventional offense.

 

[Super Nomario]

Kmet definitely isn't Hockenson as a blocker, that's for sure. But I don't think it's fair to say Kmet doesn't really block; he does, he's just very inconsistent. Lots of lunging, ends up on the ground at times, loses his balance, etc. Other times, he looks really good. He needs reps, technique work, and added strength--though he weighed in at 262# at the combine but reportedly played at around 250#, so the added strength is on the way.

He's not Mark Andrews coming out of Oklahoma who just didn't bother blocking anyone. Kmet did a lot of Y work, but with very mixed results. He's a projection, but I'm a sucker for projections (Chaisson and Uche are two of my favorites in this class). As I said earlier, as far as projections go, Kmet is probably a safer bet than most. The floor is reasonably high just based on his physical profile and receiving production in a conventional offense.

I'm with you on this. Kmet's blocking was inconsistent, but I wouldn't call him a bad blocker, and they put a lot on his plate in terms of different blocking assignments. But his route tree was really small, too, and he's got work to do there. I like him the best for the Pats in this class, but I wouldn't expect a lot of production Y1. Hell, Hockenson had like 350 receiving yards last year. But Kmet is going to check the boxes for the Pats in terms of size, physical profile, and off-field / intangible stuff.

FWIW Pioli was gushing about Kmet on Tom Curran's podcast, saying that he noticed Kmet as a freshman when scouting upperclassmen and that Kmet would work before and after practice with the offensive line, which is something you don't see a lot. And while it took him until this year to get a lot of run, he still had to beat out Brock Wright, who came in as the #1 TE in the same recruiting class.

EDIT: I could see a Devin McCourty situation where the Pats wind up taking Kmet in the first but trade back to 29 or something.