2020 Patriots Draft Prospects
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Van Jefferson is one of the more refined route runners in the class but struggles with any sort of physicality in the route or at the catch point. He doesn't block well and hasn't shown any ability to get off press. He is an average athlete although some advanced star wars radar system clocked him at 21.0+ MPH at the senior bowl - you don't see him play at that speed and he didn't test because of a broken foot. Can he be an X in the NFL? Maybe but more likely than not he is best on the inside with a free release. He's an older prospect - and I like my older prospects to be more physically dominating and he is not in that vein. Doesn't offer you anything YAC wise. Like my boy James Proche he goes down at the slightest bit of contact.
But if we're talking a late round guy? You could do a lot worse. I like guys that have a great to elite trait and his is route running which is a good one.
He does vary his moves at the top of the stem to get separation. I can still see him, as PFF points out, running effective hitch routes - that was his bread and butter this year.
Why he makes sense on the Pats: precise route-runner from the slot who wins with footwork off the line and at the top of his stems.
What you see is what you get though with Jefferson: he's got a decent floor as a bigger slot but he and Meyers are redundant and like Meyers he doesn't offer any special teams value. Personally I like Tyler Johnson better than Jefferson but Tyler Johnson has had one of the worst pre-draft processes out there. My favorite big slot in this draft class is Cephus out of Wisconsin. He's a power big slot who dominates at the catch point and who is becoming an adept route runner. His pro-day 40 was in the mid 4.5s and I think he plays around that speed.
I probably like Jefferson a bit more than SMU does, but that scouting report is accurate. If you get Jefferson on Day 3, I think you have to feel good about that pick. He's a sophisticated route runner, a clean catcher, and he's a high character player who should be able to function in New England's offense a lot quicker than the typical rookie receiver. He's a good gunner on ST, and offers added value there.
My late round receiver of choice is Kalija Lipscomb from Vanderbilt. He's one of those 6', 200# smooth athletes who lines up all over the field. His senior year production wasn't great, but Vandy had a QB and OL that weren't SEC competitive. Lipscomb was a Senior Bowl invite and handled himself well. There are bigger guys, there are faster guys, but Lipscomb has a lot of Make It qualities to his game. He got carries in their offense, helped in the return game and was their featured receiver. Like with just about every college receiver, we'll see how he does against NFL press coverage, but I don't see a ton of daylight between Lipscomb and some of these Day 2 receivers.
My late round receiver of choice is Kalija Lipscomb from Vanderbilt. He's one of those 6', 200# smooth athletes who lines up all over the field. His senior year production wasn't great, but Vandy had a QB and OL that weren't SEC competitive. Lipscomb was a Senior Bowl invite and handled himself well. There are bigger guys, there are faster guys, but Lipscomb has a lot of Make It qualities to his game. He got carries in their offense, helped in the return game and was their featured receiver. Like with just about every college receiver, we'll see how he does against NFL press coverage, but I don't see a ton of daylight between Lipscomb and some of these Day 2 receivers.
@IdiotKicker runs down the kicker prospects
View: https://twitter.com/ZoddaZone/status/1252951017118982146
View: https://twitter.com/ZoddaZone/status/1252951017118982146
This just confirms to me that I'll be pissed if we draft a kicker earlier than the 7th. Seen as a deep class with 5 potential starters, can't imagine 5 get drafted
Eh, if BB targets a guy, I trust that it will be worth it. Like Bailey, Cardona, Gost, and others.
Do you get the impression this is a "this is what we're hearing" projection or a "well, the Pats need a tight end, and he's the top-rated one" projection?
FWIW all the reports I've seen about Kmet helium are simply saying that he's rising and could get picked in the 1st. I've yet to see someone definitively link him to the Pats. I think this is just mock drafters putting 2 + 2 together and guessing Pats.
Who else has him going to NE?
I know Wright has him going in the 2nd to CHI (and notes in the Pats pick that while they need a TE nobody in the class is worth anything like 23)
Edwards (CBS) has him to CHI at the same pick (NE trades up for Love in his mock)
Freeman (BR) doesn't have him in the 1st (also has a NE QB tradeup, but for Herbert)
PFF has 2 mocks, neither has Kmet in the 1st (the one that goes 3 rounds has him at 92 which seems... low).
SI doesn't have him in the 1st
Kiper last I saw had him to the Bears
McShay to the Bears (at 50 though)
I don't know that I'd say there is lots of smoke for anything but the Bears.
Edit- Jeremiah starting the discussion of Kmet with "he can help in the run game" is just weird as it's generally considered one of the weaker parts of his game
Breer and Jeremiah both mocked him to NE in their final mocks yesterday. I'd say both guys are pretty well connected with the league; that's not to say Kmet is going #23 but that it's genuinely in play.
Edit: Kyed also mocked Kmet to NE at #26 in a Thuney/Miami trade. He reported that a source told him Kmet is in play in the first round and that Kmet is a "Patriot fit" in this draft. So national guys and local guys are hearing it. If you asked me Kmet vs. the field, I'd take the field. But Kmet is absolutely not out of the question.
I'd still prefer Chaisson or Murray (with Kinlaw the improbably fantasy), but I don't have to twist myself into knots to justify Kmet over what's projected to be on the board at 23.
Edit: Kyed also mocked Kmet to NE at #26 in a Thuney/Miami trade. He reported that a source told him Kmet is in play in the first round and that Kmet is a "Patriot fit" in this draft. So national guys and local guys are hearing it. If you asked me Kmet vs. the field, I'd take the field. But Kmet is absolutely not out of the question.
I'd still prefer Chaisson or Murray (with Kinlaw the improbably fantasy), but I don't have to twist myself into knots to justify Kmet over what's projected to be on the board at 23.
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See to me this means that the other teams consensus is that the Pats will pick Kmet. I think these NFL guys are way more plugged into teams other than the Pats (even Breer) and especially teams that use the common scouting services which the Pats do not. I think that Breer and Jeremiah are hearing that the Pats might take Kmet because that's what the other teams are thinking they might do to fill a gaping hole but that does not mean it's coming from Foxboro.
What round will TE Moss (LSU) be taken, do you guys think? I'd love for the to snag him in the 3rd or 4th round, if he lasts that long.
What other teams are likely to even think about using their first pick on a TE?
Looking at the rosters quickly, the Colts, Panthers, Cowboys, and Redskins could use a TE1, but they all also have more pressing needs to address. I feel like Kmet is a really good candidate to slide because of that, even if he's maybe a 1st round talent.
In my unsophisticated analysis, either when those teams start coming on the board a second time (starting with Colts at 34), or when he's really just head and shoulder above the rest of the players at all positions left on the board (so maybe early 3rd), is when he's in play.
In a perfect world if they love Kmet, maybe trade down to Cincy for their 2nd and 3rd.
Looking at the rosters quickly, the Colts, Panthers, Cowboys, and Redskins could use a TE1, but they all also have more pressing needs to address. I feel like Kmet is a really good candidate to slide because of that, even if he's maybe a 1st round talent.
In my unsophisticated analysis, either when those teams start coming on the board a second time (starting with Colts at 34), or when he's really just head and shoulder above the rest of the players at all positions left on the board (so maybe early 3rd), is when he's in play.
In a perfect world if they love Kmet, maybe trade down to Cincy for their 2nd and 3rd.
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Oh, 100% agree. NE isn't going around telling people who they're considering. But people like Breer and Jeremiah can definitely access guys like Pioli, Lombardi, former NE scouts, etc., and get their opinions on which players check the NE boxes.
I have a bet that he goes in the 5th or later. Guy is perhaps the most overrated TE imo. Short height, short arms, not athletic... He can catch well. He can run some basic checkdown routes. He doesn't have the size to play inline. You're looking at a FB or mobile blocking unit. He could have a nice career as a guy who fills out the bottom 10 of the 53 man roster but that is it.
We touch on Kmet in the pod. Here's the skinny on the big-man.
Kmet is the only guy in the draft who checks all their boxes for size, speed, and athleticism. Apparently he is a super high character work-a-holic too. He has played multiple sports, baseball and football, so he is raw in a lot of the technical aspects of playing the position. Kmet right now is at his best exploiting the seam. He has work to do as an inline blocker but he flashes the ability to do so.
All tight ends come into the league raw minus maybe the Iowa guys like Hock. Hock is an exception. As @Super Nomario has written before you want to take a chance on a guy with a really good skill and then build on that (as a way for TEs to stick on the roster and develop). Kmet is a good receiving TE. Could he refine his ability to work through contact at the catch point and during routes? Of course. But Kmet is someone who could be coached up into a 500+ yards a season TE with the size and strength to move the needle as an inline blocker. I think people are down on him when they shouldn't be because TE is a different beast of a position and has one of the steepest learning curves in the game. You can't teach his size and speed.
For what the Patriots like out of their tight ends Kmet fits the bill even if he has some warts. Gronk came into the league not knowing how to inline block. Kmet could easily be the pick if they trade down and while he is not my favorite prospect in this draft I have warmed up a lot to him and ALWAYS like him as a receiver.
Kmet is the only guy in the draft who checks all their boxes for size, speed, and athleticism. Apparently he is a super high character work-a-holic too. He has played multiple sports, baseball and football, so he is raw in a lot of the technical aspects of playing the position. Kmet right now is at his best exploiting the seam. He has work to do as an inline blocker but he flashes the ability to do so.
All tight ends come into the league raw minus maybe the Iowa guys like Hock. Hock is an exception. As @Super Nomario has written before you want to take a chance on a guy with a really good skill and then build on that (as a way for TEs to stick on the roster and develop). Kmet is a good receiving TE. Could he refine his ability to work through contact at the catch point and during routes? Of course. But Kmet is someone who could be coached up into a 500+ yards a season TE with the size and strength to move the needle as an inline blocker. I think people are down on him when they shouldn't be because TE is a different beast of a position and has one of the steepest learning curves in the game. You can't teach his size and speed.
For what the Patriots like out of their tight ends Kmet fits the bill even if he has some warts. Gronk came into the league not knowing how to inline block. Kmet could easily be the pick if they trade down and while he is not my favorite prospect in this draft I have warmed up a lot to him and ALWAYS like him as a receiver.
I'll try to listen to the pod later, but wouldn't Sullivan also check all these boxes? Other than his poor 20 yd. Shuttle his combine testing is basically the same/better than Kmet and they are pretty much the same size.
Kmet is 14 pounds heavier. Also, Kmet is an a actual right end. I think Sullivan is kind of interesting as a late- round option, but he played more receiver than TE from what I saw.
I think Okwuegbunam is the other guy who checks the boxes, but you have to kind of squint to make it work. I'm open for arguments for Dalton Keene too, but he's a project also.
Oh Sullivan is definitely a late round option who needs even more blocking work than Kmet, but 14 pounds isn't much to put on a 6'5" guy.
@Super Nomario you are right. Sorry I should have specified I was talking about guys they would likely consider as a top 50 kind of pick. Albert O and Keene fit too as early as day 2 as well just based on their profile.
Sorry to be so late to get this posted but here is my legend:
Here is my grading scale:
Here is the defense:
Here is the offense:
If I missed someone or eliminated them I either didn't watch them or shit happens when you trim 250+ guys to a smaller board.
That is 196 guys but if we assume that they only have draft grades on guys in the first 5 rounds or guys who have a 6+ on my board it goes from 196 to 148. That's double their size but it's hard to eliminate guys with limited information.
Here is my grading scale:
Here is the defense:
Here is the offense:
If I missed someone or eliminated them I either didn't watch them or shit happens when you trim 250+ guys to a smaller board.
That is 196 guys but if we assume that they only have draft grades on guys in the first 5 rounds or guys who have a 6+ on my board it goes from 196 to 148. That's double their size but it's hard to eliminate guys with limited information.
You really like Antoine Winfield Jr., huh? Interesting. No concerns over his size? Or is he just that good, so it doesn't really end up mattering? I don't watch college and don't really know anything about most of these players, but I don't think I've seen anybody else with Winfield rated that highly.
I remember his dad, who was a hell of a player and had a long NFL career. If the apple hasn't fallen far from the tree, I would be just fine with junior becoming a Patriot.
I remember his dad, who was a hell of a player and had a long NFL career. If the apple hasn't fallen far from the tree, I would be just fine with junior becoming a Patriot.
Junior plays on special teams. I thought he had better range and instincts as well as speed than Delpit and at 200+ pounds he is built well. He is short and has limited length but he isn't that much smaller than DMC.I love him - think he is an easy first round talent minus he had injuries earlier in his career. He screams Patriot in terms of character, leadership, playstyle, intelligence, and again, special teams.
Winfield seems to be a late riser in most of the mocks I’ve seen. Wouldn’t be a complete shock if he goes tonight.
I don’t see Delpit on your list. Figure it must be an oversight. Where would you have him ranked if you don’t mind me asking?
Delpit is 123rd on my personal board. He had a 25% missed tackle rate last year. He has been injured multiple times, I think he has good range and good instincts but neither are elite. I don't think he is that fast either. He can't tackle to save his life. He couldn't tackle a fucking kicker last year. I don't think there was a guy I was more annoyed with watching. Delpit can't play special teams either because... edit: see chapter entitled: tackling, can't. And before someone says "He was fine in 2018 Bluto." I watched him in 2018 and he had similar issues.
Drafting is about mitigating risk. His risk is he is anything but a safe safety. I would rather take a chance on another injured player like Antoine Winfield Jr. or Ashtyn Davis over Delpit.
Yeah, I'd sign up for all of this right here.
Delpit is the guy from LSU who can't tackle, yeah? Seems like "can't tackle" would be a difficult shortcoming to overcome for a safety.
Edit - I see SMU answered my question right as I was posting this.
I have to say, I went and rewatched Epenesa and Gross Matos vs Michigan today. Runyan is a legitimately good player. Runyan handled Epenesa really well. YGM made some plays in the run game but Runyan handled him in pass pro.
I may be on an island with Kamal Martin but I like him a lot Day 3. Fits the stack linebacker profile physically and play style.
I may be on an island with Kamal Martin but I like him a lot Day 3. Fits the stack linebacker profile physically and play style.
Ran out of time to watch him but I have heard v good things about his fit with the Pats.
Am I missing Queen?
EDIT: Not meaning to be an asshole! Most important is to share how SMU and El Jeffe have been incredible board resources. Thank you for making the next couple of days even more fun.
EDIT: Not meaning to be an asshole! Most important is to share how SMU and El Jeffe have been incredible board resources. Thank you for making the next couple of days even more fun.
Nope. Belichick hasn’t drafted a LB under 240 pounds let alone 230 until very late day 3. Queen is too small for them to take.
Why do you have Jeudy just edged out by Ruggs and Lamb? Obviously talking about fractions of a grade here, but definitely curious. Jeudy strikes me as the guy of that group who could step right in as a 50 catch/700 yard receiver for the Pats splitting time inside and outside.
Fair question. So I like all three of them a lot and the guy with the highest floor and who will contribute immediately is Jeudy. But Jeudy has the lowest ceiling of the three. From what I read Jeudy is a fine guy but Ruggs is the guy the coaches love. Ruggs plays special teams as a gunner and can return kicks and punts (or one of them - and well too!). Ruggs is a good route runner himself but like all speedsters sometimes his breaks aren’t as crisp because it’s hard to go full brake when you run a 4.27 on a bad day. Ruggs has the most tools and can play anywhere. I think he’s better against press than Jeudy or at least projects better there. Jeudy is best as a slot or working the inside routes. I am not sure if Jeudy is going to play a ton of X whereas I like Ruggs in any role. It’s just a ceiling thing. Ruggs also has the highest chance of the three to be a bust but I’m more optimistic about him.
He isn’t 230 pounds soaking wet so assume he is off the board. Bill just has had a type for 20 years for LB and until he changes it I try to keep my board by his standards and thresholds. I like your boy though personally on my board. I don’t have Bill’s size requirements.
Great point about Ruggs’ versatility on specials, I didn’t think about that. I’m admittedly biased to Jeudy because of how lean the Pats happen to be at receiver, especially with Jules’ looming retirement, and the best shot at a productive receiver is hard to pass up.
But nobody is going broke projecting Ruggs as the better player over the next 4-5 years, if not Year 1.
But nobody is going broke projecting Ruggs as the better player over the next 4-5 years, if not Year 1.
Ruggs fans seem to rave about him in a way that I haven't really seen in the advocates for Lamb and Jeudy. For whatever that's worth. He sounds like the guy most likely to turn into a real playmaker at the next level. It's all about whether he ultimately gets there, but playmakers are what you need when you're in the shit against a tough opponent.
I like Runyan a lot. I'm lukewarm on Epenesa and I like YGM. I'd be fine with YGM at 23, based on the board. Runyan is probably around 4th or 5th round but I see so many Make It traits with him.
Cool thanks. Just wasn’t quite sure what you were trying to say in the last post
I'm kind of there with Strnad. Combine measurements say he's in range for NE but on tape he looked about 225#. But he was so fun to watch. Twitchy and explosive. He didn't physically look like a NE backer the way Martin did.
