Blame it on my dendrophobiaI would care. Truth is Yaz has always been notoriously slow in going through his progressions.
Blame it on my dendrophobiaI would care. Truth is Yaz has always been notoriously slow in going through his progressions.
I want JJ Taylor to make the team, in part to be the receiving back to replace White if he gets hurt but also as a longer term replacement. Taylor has serious ability.I with @Super Nomario on this one.
If god forbid something should happen to James White, who is the pass catching back? Harris flashed a little bit of skill there in college, but so did Michel and he's been abysmal as a pass catcher thus far. Even if Michel shows dramatic improvement and Harris turns out to be a cromulent pass catching back, neither are likely to give you what Burkhead does in the passing game. When White was out last year in week 3 against the Jets, Burkhead played 74% of the offensive snaps, by far his highest total of the season (next highest was 46% in week one). He's a key cog on special teams as well. As Belichick always says, the more that a player can do, the more likely it is they're active on Sundays.
If Burkhead gets replaced, it's probably by either an UDFA or somebody who isn't currently on the roster. Which are both possibilities, but that likely wouldn't happen until they see how everyone looks in camp.
I think this is overblown. We have seen it to some degree, a little bit in 2016 and especially in 2008 when Brady was out. And if you want to go way back, 2000 with Bledsoe. Welker led the team in targets in 2008 with Cassel, Edelman led the team in targets in the four games Brady was suspended in 2016, Troy Brown was second in targets and yards in 2000 with Bledsoe (and had by far his best year up to that point). Kevin Faulk's targets were about the same with Bledsoe in 2000 and with Cassel in 2008 as they were with Brady in the intervening years, maybe even a little more. White was third in targets in 2016 when Brady was suspended (Martellus Bennett 2nd, Amendola 4th).Nevermind the idea of Brady wanting JE11 on the Bucs, the guy he'd really want is White, who's in the final year of his deal.
I think what folks are glossing over -- understandably, considering how we haven't had to think about it in 20 years -- is that ANY pass-catcher's value to the Patriots at the moment is unknown ... until we see how much on-field chemistry they have with Stidham (or whoever will be the starter).
What made Edelman and White so invaluable for Brady is that each knew where the other would be at all times, and where they would be if protection or scheme broke down. This year is uncharted territory; we don't know how they will work in tandem.
Those two in particular won't fall off the radar, but it's not a given that their production or value in an offense not quarterbacked by Brady will be at the same levels we're used to seeing.
I've read enough of your posts to know that you're far more knowledgeable than I am about football, but I would counter in this instance that your examples here are not on point.I think this is overblown. We have seen it to some degree, a little bit in 2016 and especially in 2008 when Brady was out. And if you want to go way back, 2000 with Bledsoe. Welker led the team in targets in 2008 with Cassel, Edelman led the team in targets in the four games Brady was suspended in 2016, Troy Brown was second in targets and yards in 2000 with Bledsoe (and had by far his best year up to that point). Kevin Faulk's targets were about the same with Bledsoe in 2000 and with Cassel in 2008 as they were with Brady in the intervening years, maybe even a little more. White was third in targets in 2016 when Brady was suspended (Martellus Bennett 2nd, Amendola 4th).
Edelman will likely be a little less effective next year, because he's 34 and because Stidham almost certainly won't be as good as Brady. I don't see a dramatic sea change in performance or distribution of targets barring injury, however. They're going to throw to the slot and the receiving back because it's built into the offense, and because the alternatives aren't great.
I'd argue the 2008 offense was WAY different than 2007. Cassell threw a lot more short passes in 2008 than Brady did in 2007.I've read enough of your posts to know that you're far more knowledgeable than I am about football, but I would counter in this instance that your examples here are not on point.
They didn't overhaul the offense in 2016 to work to the strengths of JG or Brissett, because they knew TB12 was coming back. And Cassell had two seasons experience by 2008 to be able to run a similar offense.
Neither of those factors is relevant this coming year. McDaniels isn't going to force-fit Stidham into Brady's shoes. They'll see which pieces of the offense work best with him as QB and go from there. And we should be quick to dismiss he notion of QBs working better with some receivers than others. We've seen for 20 years that Brady had his pinkies and those he ignored. We don't know what sort of rapport he has with the current crop.
Of course they'll run plays to maximize the strengths of the personnel. But that doesn't mean that exact personnel that Brady utilized most frequently will be the same that will work with Stidham
If you go back to 2000 though, Troy Brown's targets / yards / catches all doubled, at the age of 29. So the focus on the slot was part of the offense from jump. And by the same token you can say "oh, they wouldn't have changed things for Garoppolo in 2016," they wouldn't have changed things for a neophyte Brady in 2001. This is a big part of the offense.They didn't overhaul the offense in 2016 to work to the strengths of JG or Brissett, because they knew TB12 was coming back. And Cassell had two seasons experience by 2008 to be able to run a similar offense.
This is the kind of logic that I think is overblown. Brady has thrown more to his good receivers than his bad receivers. I don't think it's about "binkies" or whatever. Julian Edelman is better at getting open than Matt LaCosse; of course he's getting the ball more. That's going to be true this year, too.And we should be quick to dismiss he notion of QBs working better with some receivers than others. We've seen for 20 years that Brady had his pinkies and those he ignored. We don't know what sort of rapport he has with the current crop.
So ... you're saying Brady was a system quarterback?If you go back to 2000 though, Troy Brown's targets / yards / catches all doubled, at the age of 29. So the focus on the slot was part of the offense from jump. And by the same token you can say "oh, they wouldn't have changed things for Garoppolo in 2016," they wouldn't have changed things for a neophyte Brady in 2001. This is a big part of the offense.
The other targets have generally fluctuated based on who was good. Brady had years where he threw to the TEs a ton and years where he threw to them not at all, years where he threw to the X a ton and years barely at all, etc.
All true ... but Brady was the constant. That doesn't exist anymore. It stands to reason that, even running the same offense, Stidham will have his own strengths and weaknesses ... and the game plan will adjust to capitalize/avoid those.I think for me the key is the guys that Brady didn’t like to work with (if we want to call it that) never really caught on anywhere else. I think he didn’t want to work with them because they Frankly sucked. Also, on his Howard Stern interview he gave us a little nugget that he and the coaching staff were on the same page with receivers (TEs, WRs, etc). I just don’t think the Pats offense is that hard to understand. Maybe for the slot guy it is but not for X receivers. It’s all about concepts and route conversions. If you run an 8 yard comeback vs a 7 yard comeback and the play calls for a 7 yarder that’s on the WR.
I’m not saying Brady did or didn’t do his most to help guys last year. Have no clue on that one. Just that historically guys who didn’t hack it here didn’t light up the league somewhere else.
Yes they will adjust and put in certain concepts that take advantage of Stidham's strengths but there will not be some kind of overhaul like some others think. The idea of some to trade Edelman just makes no sense to me. He is a good football player on an offense that doesn't have a whole lot of them.All true ... but Brady was the constant. That doesn't exist anymore. It stands to reason that, even running the same offense, Stidham will have his own strengths and weaknesses ... and the game plan will adjust to capitalize/avoid those.
Yeah - this is interesting to me. How much is the offense going to change to emphasize what Stidham does best vs. Brady. I can't wait to see where they go with this. I think in year 2 given the investment they have made with RBs, OL, and recently TEs in the draft they plan on going more 12 or 21 with a lot of play-action. HT to @Super Nomario but this looks like they want to return to bully-ball against smaller quicker defenses. Exciting times though for sure and I would love to hear what others think they emphasize more or less with Stidham presumably at the helm (if that is what happens).All true ... but Brady was the constant. That doesn't exist anymore. It stands to reason that, even running the same offense, Stidham will have his own strengths and weaknesses ... and the game plan will adjust to capitalize/avoid those.
Hangs onto the ball too long, too.I would care. Truth is Yaz has always been notoriously slow in going through his progressions.
Stidham isn't the only variable here: there are the strengths and weaknesses of the receiving corps, too. Any effort to tailor the receiving corps to Stidham's game (to the extent that's even something we're going to notice) is a multi-year process. And you look at this offseason, they kept the WRs essentially the same (just Damiere Byrd in for Philip Dorsett).All true ... but Brady was the constant. That doesn't exist anymore. It stands to reason that, even running the same offense, Stidham will have his own strengths and weaknesses ... and the game plan will adjust to capitalize/avoid those.
Neither of those factors is relevant this coming year. McDaniels isn't going to force-fit Stidham into Brady's shoes. They'll see which pieces of the offense work best with him as QB and go from there. And we should be quick to dismiss he notion of QBs working better with some receivers than others. We've seen for 20 years that Brady had his pinkies and those he ignored. We don't know what sort of rapport he has with the current crop.
Of course they'll run plays to maximize the strengths of the personnel. But that doesn't mean that exact personnel that Brady utilized most frequently will be the same that will work with Stidham
I don't recall any receivers that left New England after struggling and somehow gained a rapport with their new QB and earned a measure of success. In fact, most have either saw their production rapidly fall or fail completely (hello Ocho Cinco).This is the kind of logic that I think is overblown. Brady has thrown more to his good receivers than his bad receivers. I don't think it's about "binkies" or whatever. Julian Edelman is better at getting open than Matt LaCosse; of course he's getting the ball more. That's going to be true this year, too.
I think the whole "Brady only throws to guys he trusts" narrative is pretty overblown anyway. You look back and the only guys not getting targets are fringe roster guys or guys who are making a last ditch effort to hang on. You don't see a lot of guys at least the last 7 or so years who came here in their prime, or were top picks and didn't get targetsI don't recall any receivers that left New England after struggling and somehow gained a rapport with their new QB and earned a measure of success. In fact, most have either saw their production rapidly fall or fail completely (hello Ocho Cinco).
It's possible that Brady did not exploit some hidden talent in the new receivers last season, and that those receivers would have been more successful with a different QB throwing them the ball. But, if so, it would be the first time that's happened in Brady's career.
Hollister was actually pretty productive in NE when he was actually on the field, but between injuries and the depth chart, that was almost never. He played less than 100 offensive snaps in both his seasons with the Pats. He played 500 snaps last year.I think the whole "Brady only throws to guys he trusts" narrative is pretty overblown anyway. You look back and the only guys not getting targets are fringe roster guys or guys who are making a last ditch effort to hang on. You don't see a lot of guys at least the last 7 or so years who came here in their prime, or were top picks and didn't get targets
The only case I can see is maybe Hollister? He was here 2 years got almost no targets, went to SEA and had a much higher target share.
It's hard to judge that though, he was active for 23 games and only saw limited snaps and 15 targets. The Brady confidence thing is partly by his own admission that if he doesn't trust a guy he tells the coaching staff not to play him. So it's tough to weigh whether Hollister played so little when healthy because he was down the depth chart due to others' performance, or due to Brady not trusting him.Hollister was actually pretty productive in NE when he was actually on the field, but between injuries and the depth chart, that was almost never. He played less than 100 offensive snaps in both his seasons with the Pats. He played 500 snaps last year.
Not since I was a pre-teenHangs onto the ball too long, too.
15 of those games were as a rookie, in a season where Gronk was first-team All-Pro and they had just invested a fourth in Dwayne Allen. We can't know for sure, but this is entirely consistent with how the coaching staff deploys young players at other positions, too, when there are veterans ahead of them on the depth chart. Then in Y2, Hollister couldn't stay healthy.It's hard to judge that though, he was active for 23 games and only saw limited snaps and 15 targets. The Brady confidence thing is partly by his own admission that if he doesn't trust a guy he tells the coaching staff not to play him. So it's tough to weigh whether Hollister played so little when healthy because he was down the depth chart due to others' performance, or due to Brady not trusting him.
I think we're basically in the same place. I might put more of an emphasis on the notion that ANY new quarterback is eventually going to have develop his own go-to plays and guysStidham isn't the only variable here: there are the strengths and weaknesses of the receiving corps, too. Any effort to tailor the receiving corps to Stidham's game (to the extent that's even something we're going to notice) is a multi-year process. And you look at this offseason, they kept the WRs essentially the same (just Damiere Byrd in for Philip Dorsett).
I think the biggest difference we'll notice is more rollouts to take advantage of Stidham's mobility. I'm not sure that's going to manifest itself in a different distribution of targets, though.
I think the whole "Brady only throws to guys he trusts" narrative is pretty overblown anyway.
I think you're disagreeing with yourself hereThe Brady confidence thing is partly by his own admission that if he doesn't trust a guy he tells the coaching staff not to play him.
Not really, I just think Brady is mostly full of shit.I think you're disagreeing with yourself here
The narrative took root last season because there were a whole bunch of things that happened:I think the whole "Brady only throws to guys he trusts" narrative is pretty overblown anyway. You look back and the only guys not getting targets are fringe roster guys or guys who are making a last ditch effort to hang on. You don't see a lot of guys at least the last 7 or so years who came here in their prime, or were top picks and didn't get targets
The only case I can see is maybe Hollister? He was here 2 years got almost no targets, went to SEA and had a much higher target share.
Do you have a link for this? I don't remember it.4.) Brady unwisely complained about the younger receivers in a radio interview.
I believe this is what he is referencing:Do you have a link for this? I don't remember it.
I think the interesting thing about this point is that I've typically expected the QB to figure out where he wants receivers in the exception case, or when an audible is forced due to defensive look, etc. and then there's a period of time to get the receivers on the QBs page. In this case, isn't there the possibility that the receivers (at least these two) will get to where Brady would have expected them out of habit and years of experience, and Stidham will end up looking for them there? In some sense the receivers are capable of all the reads and adjustments and they could all get on the same page as soon as Stidham is able to handle it? I'm not sure this thought is even logical for someone who actually KNOWS what he's talking about - but I'm curious about this evolution as well.-- snip --
What made Edelman and White so invaluable for Brady is that each knew where the other would be at all times, and where they would be if protection or scheme broke down. This year is uncharted territory; we don't know how they will work in tandem.
-- snip --
Thanks, I like seeing other people’s 53. I don’t have any big arguments, although I don’t think they’ll keep 3 QBs or 3 TEs. But a few regulars/STers are missing - Bolden, Burkhead, Brandon King, Rivers, Wise. I guess cap hits would be negligible.Just for fun....making a 53-man roster with the guys on the team right now (I'm counting the draftees and UDFA guys as being on the team right now)..
Offense (26)
QB - Stidham, Hoyer, Smith
RB - Michel, White, Harris, Taylor
FB - Vitale
WR - Edelman, Sanu, Harry, Lee, Meyers, Thomas, Slater
TE - Asiasi, Keefe, Izzo
T - Wynn, Cannon, Cajuste
G - Thuney, Mason, Onwenu
C - Andrews, Woodard
Defense (25)
Edge - Winovich, Uche, Simon
DL - Guy, Allen, Butler, Cowart, Coe
LB - Hightower, Bentley, Copeland, Calhoun, Jennings
CB - Gilmore, Jackson, JMcCourty, Bethel, Jones, Bryant, Williams
S - DMcCourty, Chung, Phillips, Dugger, Brooks/Gant
Specialists (2)
P - Bailey
K - Rohrwasser
Key special teamers include Vitale, Slater, Phillips, Brooks, Bethel, and Dugger.
Yes some current regular special teamers are missing, but they're being replaced by new guys. Can't keep everyone while adding a bunch of new guys. There's gonna be some turnover on the roster.Thanks, I like seeing other people’s 53. I don’t have any big arguments, although I don’t think they’ll keep 3 QBs or 3 TEs. But a few regulars/STers are missing - Bolden, Burkhead, Brandon King, Rivers, Wise. I guess cap hits would be negligible.
Joe Cardona, dude!Specialists (2)
P - Bailey
K - Rohrwasser
Oh wow totally forgot him. No idea who I'd leave off for him though!Joe Cardona, dude!
Bryant and Smith are PS candidates. I don't see both Lee and Meyers making the team; I see them as competing for a similar role as a 4th WR.Oh wow totally forgot him. No idea who I'd leave off for him though!
Howard Stern a few weeks agoDo you have a link for this? I don't remember it.
Wow, I believe that's 5 undrafted free agents making the team and as many as 15 players who've never played an NFL snap.Just for fun....making a 53-man roster with the guys on the team right now (I'm counting the draftees and UDFA guys as being on the team right now)..
Offense (26)
QB - Stidham, Hoyer, Smith
RB - Michel, White, Harris, Taylor
FB - Vitale
WR - Edelman, Sanu, Harry, Lee, Meyers, Thomas, Slater
TE - Asiasi, Keefe, Izzo
T - Wynn, Cannon, Cajuste
G - Thuney, Mason, Onwenu
C - Andrews, Woodard
Defense (25)
Edge - Winovich, Uche, Simon
DL - Guy, Allen, Butler, Cowart, Coe
LB - Hightower, Bentley, Copeland, Calhoun, Jennings
CB - Gilmore, Jackson, JMcCourty, Bethel, Jones, Bryant, Williams
S - DMcCourty, Chung, Phillips, Dugger, Brooks/Gant
Specialists (2)
P - Bailey
K - Rohrwasser
Key special teamers include Vitale, Slater, Phillips, Brooks, Bethel, and Dugger.
Of course I know nothing about some of these players, and no idea if the character issues plaguing Thomas and even Coe are such that there's no way they'd make the team. But they are *talented* for sure. So just off the top of my head, I'd keep them on talent alone.
The offense I put together would have diversity at RB - traditional straight ahead runner in Michel, interesting potential in Harris, the skill of White, and Taylor can spell White or, in short bursts, Michel as a ballcarrier. They lack a hammer though. Vitale provides a versatile and athletic FB. At receiver, taking on Thomas gives them crazy speed and quickness that they otherwise have lacked. If he has his head on straight, that's a huge addition. Still, not an elite group by any means, but if healthy (big IF), they are decent enough. TE gets a huge boost from the two rookies, who I think are both better than anything they had in 2019. The OL if healthy should be very good. Depth is an issue. Just hoping that Woodard and Onwenu are better than the backups they had last year.
On D, this group is fast and versatile. Young too, with the additions of Uche, Coe, Jennings, Bryant, and Dugger. Other young guys include Winovich, Bentley, Cowart, Jones, and maybe Gant. They lack elite run-stuffers, but are quick to the ball, can get after the passer (Winovich, Simon, Uche, Butler, and Jennings). Excellent coverage guys and very deep in the secondary.
Quarterback is the gigantic question mark. Who knows what Stidham really is. But this is a roster I could be intrigued by for sure.
Yep. Going young!Wow, I believe that's 5 undrafted free agents making the team and as many as 15 players who've never played an NFL snap.
The piece contains quotes from scouts and agents who claim to be familiar with Bill Belichick’s thinking in a post-Tom Brady world, which could include a major spending spree as early as next offseason.
Said the one Patriots staffer who would return a text for this piece, “Go ahead and get excited about him.”
I am optimistic as well but until we see him do it in games, who knows? I am elated and terrified that NE has thrown all their eggs in this basket.It will not be surprising if Stidham is better than Brady next year. There, I said it.
I think it's a calculated hedge, that is... he believes in him, but also feels that if he's wrong he'd rather just let it ride and be bad for one year to help get the next long term QB. Probably the worst case scenario for him is Stidham being below average but not terrible. Average or better gives you a very good team, and a cheap QB to build around. Terrible means a non-playoff team that can draft (whether trading up or not) a potential franchise QB. Below average is a no-man's land, probably sneak into the playoffs, but also no confidence in the position going forward, and a pick low enough that a trade up becomes very expensiveBelichick has had several chances now to hedge on his Stidham bet. He hasn't remotely hedged. He isn't likely to try and tank a year at his age. He believes in this kid.
Perhaps in the games he plays...young QBs have a bad habit of getting hurt in the NFL.It will not be surprising if Stidham is better than Brady next year. There, I said it.
So do old ones.Perhaps in the games he plays...young QBs have a bad habit of getting hurt in the NFL.