2021-2022 Yankees Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter jon abbey
- Start date
I think this rando kind of articulates some of my thought process well.
View: https://twitter.com/ncostanzo24/status/1503938654296846338?s=20&t=lRbMh9PjfG4OXsJz8k293g
View: https://twitter.com/ncostanzo24/status/1503938654296846338?s=20&t=lRbMh9PjfG4OXsJz8k293g
Not sure what else they could have done, it seems like they went after both Olson and Freeman pretty hard. None of the SSs really made sense at mammoth price tags:
Correa: 10/350? He is going to end up taking a much shorter deal to go back to HOU probably.
Story: health questions
Seager: not great defensively
Semien: love the bat, but he is probably a 2B and NY already has two of those.
Baez: another righty who Ks constantly
Correa: 10/350? He is going to end up taking a much shorter deal to go back to HOU probably.
Story: health questions
Seager: not great defensively
Semien: love the bat, but he is probably a 2B and NY already has two of those.
Baez: another righty who Ks constantly
Yea, and I think that kind of in some ways helps make my point. If none of these players were going to be players we went after, then why have we continued to reset the luxury tax and save money in previous years? This is 3 or 4 seasons in a row of a very payroll conscious team that with the Cole exception, has been presenting themselves as staying under the CBT to fight another day. I mean last year we literally ran Rougned Odor out all godamn year because he allowed us to stay under $210m. For what?? And then finally arbitration crept up to the team and they took a salary dump with Donaldson. So now we're at $250m and don't want to overspend on anyone. I don't know man, I'm a huge Cashman defender but there's a lot more cracks there than most of us want to admit.
The two NY teams and the Dodgers are way ahead of everyone else in 2022 payroll, not sure how spending is the issue. Mega-deals end up as mistakes more often than not, and mistakes that you’re potentially locked into for a long time.
My point is how we got to $250m is pretty odd. Don't you agree? Cashman wasn't saving all of his bullets to reset the cap so we could pay for back of Donaldson's contract.
I really think they'll spend the money for the right fits. Especially for long deals. Cole fit. Freeman would have fit. Olson really would have fit, but if all Oakland wanted was prospects, the price was too high. A mammoth deal for Correa? I would have hated it for reasons I've stated before.
I think the Yankees are trying very hard to build a balanced, flexible team with good defense. Still some work to do, but I appreciate that they're not just throwing cash at the biggest names.
As far as prospects go, they're strong at SS. I'm good going short term there and focusing elsewhere.
I'd be happy with another SP and catcher option. If Cashman could pull a rabbit out of his hat, I'd also love to be surprised by a CF upgrade, but I don't expect it.
This is the answer to why our payroll is what it is this year. But the free agent pool was never a secret and if Cashman wasn't going to buy a shortstop, why the hell didn't we do more to go over the cap last year? He didn't really expect the cap to stay at $210m after the CBA, did he?
I don't know that going over the cap last year would have changed anything. Don't think it would have compensated fully for the various injuries the team was dealing with up and down the roster.
Also I think they had every intention of going after one of the big SSs but then both Volpe and Peraza blew up last summer, Cabrera to some extent too. Just like Judge's emergence (and then Stanton becoming available in a trade) meant that it no longer made sense for NY to go after Bryce Harper, same thing here.
On the flip side, Voit's inability to stay healthy and poor fielding meant that 1B was a hole that needed filling, so they traded for Rizzo, tried to get Olson, went after Freeman pretty hard, and then re-signed Rizzo.
On the flip side, Voit's inability to stay healthy and poor fielding meant that 1B was a hole that needed filling, so they traded for Rizzo, tried to get Olson, went after Freeman pretty hard, and then re-signed Rizzo.
NY's opening day lineup 2021:
- DJ LeMahieu, 2B
- Aaron Judge, RF
- Aaron Hicks, CF
- Giancarlo Stanton, DH
- Gleyber Torres, SS
- Gio Urshela, 3B
- Gary Sánchez, C
- Jay Bruce, 1B
- Clint Frazier, LF
Not only get more out of the talent they have, but targeting different talent. I think Swanson has made an impact that way already. He may not be the only coach that applies to. I think how different parts of the management and front office teams work together is probably evolving quite a bit.
Think of it this way:
There is the current 26 man team, there are the guys behind them on the 40 man and AA/AAA (this batch is loaded with middle infielders and pitchers), and there is the farther away future team. So three fairly separate groups of players, the first your team coming into the season, the second the guys you are relying on for reinforcements, and the third for down the road in a few years.
Cashman has done a very nice job adding to the first while not hurting the second too badly (mostly dealing from excess because you can only protect so many guys) and keeping the third almost totally intact (except Alcantara who they moved for Rizzo).
It's the complexity of juggling all of this that I am super into, I am as into the personnel part as I am the actual baseball part, I think. Not that that is news to you guys...
There is the current 26 man team, there are the guys behind them on the 40 man and AA/AAA (this batch is loaded with middle infielders and pitchers), and there is the farther away future team. So three fairly separate groups of players, the first your team coming into the season, the second the guys you are relying on for reinforcements, and the third for down the road in a few years.
Cashman has done a very nice job adding to the first while not hurting the second too badly (mostly dealing from excess because you can only protect so many guys) and keeping the third almost totally intact (except Alcantara who they moved for Rizzo).
It's the complexity of juggling all of this that I am super into, I am as into the personnel part as I am the actual baseball part, I think. Not that that is news to you guys...
Freeman has been much better than Rizzo the last two years but they are almost exactly the same age (Freeman a month younger) and both LHH 1B who are known for their defense and hit FA at the same time, the overall numbers are surprisingly close. Freeman came up a bit earlier so I will compare the ten years of their careers that overlap, 2012-2021:
PAs:
Freeman: 6001
Rizzo: 5839
HRs:
Freeman: 249
Rizzo: 250
bWAR:
Freeman: 41.7
Rizzo: 37.2
OPS:
Freeman: 905
Rizzo: .858
Contracts:
Freeman: TBA
Rizzo: 2/32 or 1/16, player option
PAs:
Freeman: 6001
Rizzo: 5839
HRs:
Freeman: 249
Rizzo: 250
bWAR:
Freeman: 41.7
Rizzo: 37.2
OPS:
Freeman: 905
Rizzo: .858
Contracts:
Freeman: TBA
Rizzo: 2/32 or 1/16, player option
Damn, and career earnings before 2022 have been $133M for Freeman and just $71M for Rizzo, even though he was part of a WS-winning team much younger than Freeman. Rizzo is poised for a monster year with the short right field wall and then hit the market again, or at least get NY to add on another year or two.
From an outside perspective, the reason you're carrying a $250m payroll is that there's not been a big influx of talent from the minors. So all the incoming talent is from free agency, which means paying ~$8m/win. The contending window is shutting because you haven't graduated enough prospects.
IMO Cashman is doing what he should be doing: spending money to load up the team for 1-2 years because that's the remaining time left on the window that was opened in 2016. You can't sign Correa to a 10 year deal because that means Judge is gone, and your best minor leaguers are shortstops. So, no long term commitments because you need to re-sign your own players, and especially no long-term commitments to players playing a position that your best prospects are playing.
IMO Cashman is doing what he should be doing: spending money to load up the team for 1-2 years because that's the remaining time left on the window that was opened in 2016. You can't sign Correa to a 10 year deal because that means Judge is gone, and your best minor leaguers are shortstops. So, no long term commitments because you need to re-sign your own players, and especially no long-term commitments to players playing a position that your best prospects are playing.
Cashman has found a lot of guys on the scrap heap who have turned into solid pieces: Urshela, Voit, Tauchman, but all three of those shined and then declined, you need to develop prospects to consistently contend, as you rightly say.
Heim has already been in 4 AL organizations, from BAL to TB to OAK to TEX. He grew up a Yankee fan in upstate NY, maybe that’s the fit he needs.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/athletics/heim-unfortunately-was-raised-yanks-fan-debut?amp
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/athletics/heim-unfortunately-was-raised-yanks-fan-debut?amp
Heim will be 27 this summer and has a career 0.0 bWAR in 326 PAs. His career OPS is .583 but he did hit walkoff HRs in back to back games last summer:
https://www.si.com/mlb/rangers/.amp/game-day/its-unbelievable-rangers-heim-hits-walk-off-homer-for-second-consecutive-game
https://www.si.com/mlb/rangers/.amp/game-day/its-unbelievable-rangers-heim-hits-walk-off-homer-for-second-consecutive-game
I'd want to be a Yankee for life too if they kept paying me $10M per year to rehab and never pitch.
View: https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1504134477781426177
View: https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1504134477781426177
IKF in the Yankee Stadium bleachers as a kid:
View: https://twitter.com/Isiahkf11/status/1504224364828499970
View: https://twitter.com/Isiahkf11/status/1504224364828499970
No one is appreciating what an incredible deal Rizzo gave NY (I have not seen it reported yet but I am certain he got higher offers, from the Cubs at least).
Former Cubs FAs with contracts and projected 2022 WAR via Fangraphs:
Kris Bryant: 7/182 (2.7)
Javy Baez: 6/140 (2.9)
Kyle Schwarber: 4/79 (3.1)
Anthony Rizzo: 2/32 (2.9)
Former Cubs FAs with contracts and projected 2022 WAR via Fangraphs:
Kris Bryant: 7/182 (2.7)
Javy Baez: 6/140 (2.9)
Kyle Schwarber: 4/79 (3.1)
Anthony Rizzo: 2/32 (2.9)
I want Manaea and Jonah Heim still, Heim should not be hard to get if they want him. Manaea they could get overbid for but he only has one year left, so we'll see. Manaea has big splits, he was much better last season against LHB (.590 OPS allowed) than RHB (.758 OPS allowed), so maybe he isn't the answer for a #2 either.
View: https://twitter.com/MaxTGoodman/status/1504651880814850078?s=20&t=kkZLGU5tSyrdhgJiH_w_tQ
Padres have pieces that could work.
Padres have pieces that could work.
As the list of FA impact bats shrinks, Rosenthal reports that SD is interested in Voit. I wonder if Cashman could use that as a starting point to pry away one of SD's top four SPs, they have some depth behind them and NY could send a young guy back as part of it. Musgrove and Clevinger have one year left, Darvish has two pricy ones (2/43), Snell has two at an AAV of 10M per. I think any of those guys might slot it at #2 for NY behind Cole, SD has no bullpen and NY could send them 2-3 guys easily (Green/Luetge to start).
I have no idea about fair value with this and Preller is normally a wild man who right now must be pretty frustrated watching the Dodgers and Giants continually adding guys, but also looking at their depth chart, Gleyber would be a nice upgrade for them, bumping Cronenworth from 2B to SS or LF and Kim or Mazara to the bench, then the other when Tatis is back.
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/padres
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/padres
Gleyber and Voit and Green for Snell and Caratini or Alfaro, their choice. BTV has that as a mild overpay for NY, 19.2 to 14.4. SD would take on $3M extra in salary and fill a bunch of holes, they lose Snell but they just signed Nick Martinez.
I really hope that trade happens. Watching the SOSH Yankee crew get increasingly frustrated with his nibbling and throwing 100 pitches in 3 innings will be a highlight of the season for me.I so want to knock TB out of the playoffs with Snell in the rotation. Make it happen, Brian.
The fact of the matter is now that there is the DH in the NL, there are plenty of NL teams desperate for an impact bat to slot in there.
The Yankees are actually in advantageous position here.
The Yankees are actually in advantageous position here.
Calling Voit a DH is a disservice. He’s an average 1B who when healthy can be a top 20 offensive player. We just don’t think he’ll stay healthy and we can’t wait around to find out
I am not calling him a DH. I am saying that NL teams now have another spot in the lineup they have to fill and Voit is an impact bat to put there.
He is a bad defender at 1B, he is a DH if at all possible and since they're not moving Hosmer much as they would love to, he would be a DH for them. He is a huge impact hitter when healthy though and supposedly has looked great in camp so far (I know, I know).
They were better off before MIL just signed McCutchen, who will mostly DH for them. Voit would be an upgrade for 1B also for some teams though, definitely OAK if he could survive covering all that foul ground.
The NY coaches would Clockwork Orange him endless loops of Andy Pettitte at his best and he'd go back to Cy form, your words do not hide your fear of the wrath of Snell returned and unleashed. He will throw a complete game 91 pitch shutout in game 6 to end TB's season, and then dedicate the effort afterwards to the TB front office and Kevin Cash, 'for always believing in me'.
Anyway maybe there is a match there, any of those four SPs would be I think a good score by Cashman. Chad Green would have a good chance of stepping right in as their closer, at least 8th inning guy and Gleyber and Voit would both start and be upgrades now and after Tatis is back, and they want to keep competing now but cannot add much more money.
I would not be excited to see Snell in the rotation. Intrigued maybe. Yeah, let's go with that.
He does have a punchable face though.
He does have a punchable face though.
I could have written the same post. There's also another factor which is I lose trust of pitchers who were once aces but never really put it back together again. It seems like a project for someone who will flirt with greatness every few starts then fall apart again.