To me the MLB draft is such a crapshoot in the first place that if there are consensus top players available, I wouldn't want to pass on them for the sake of getting tough signs later knowing that those guys are usually not better than anyone else they might have taken at slot. Have seen—and been excited about—more than enough later round bonus babies in my dozen or so years of really paying attention. Just feels too cute to not go with the BPA with a pick this high.
Sure, maybe you hit on a Mookie once in a generation, but in that very same draft they also went way overslot for Swihart, Henry Owens, Jordan Weems, Noe Ramirez, and Cody Kukuk. The prize overslot guy the next year was Ty Buttrey. The next year, when they saved some slot money on Trey Ball, the worst draft pick I've seen them make, the savings went to overslot bonuses for guys like Jon Denney, Jake Drehoff, Gabe Speier, and Nick Longhi. We'll see how things go with the Yorke/Jordan maneuver from last year's draft. High school tough signs have so much development left, and so much can happen.
I do trust Chaim, but cutting a deal at 4 would feel to me like trading a dollar for 5 quarters but 3 of them turn out to be made of chocolate.