Does anyone thing Bill can resist Zaven Collins? A QB is the top need of course and offensive skill players are a must, but he's a a versatile fast 6-4 260 lb linebacker....
2021 NFL Prospect Talk...Because It's Never Too Early
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I was actually planning on writing up Collins. He's the closest thing I've seen to Hightower since he came out of Alabama. I'm definitely a Collins fan and think BB will be interested but the lateral quickness and hips, while impressive for a 260# dude, will still be an issue in space at the NFL level. He's not Micah Parsons, and there's a bit of risk if he's a true three down LB. I'd bet on yes. But at #15, I want a bit more certainty in my pick.
There is a slack channel that discusses Patriots draft pretty much 24/7. It’s a small channel (<100) but quite a few SOSHers are there. I know some of you love the draft and prospects so if you’re interested in joining send me a PM. It’s super easy to join. It’s like a mini family in there and we go like 300-350 prospects deep for the draft too. This year we want to do some pods (better than last year) and post them to SOSH.
Guys like Zaven Collins, Nixon, Barmore, Oweh (binkie) and front seven currently being discussed along with the other positions.
We talk scheme fit and if BB would like them based on past tendencies. We also have the athletic testing accumulated so we know who is more aligned to being a fit.
I’m working on OT, CB, and Wr currently. I finished RB. We are writing reports for each guy and posting them to a google sheet.
Guys like Zaven Collins, Nixon, Barmore, Oweh (binkie) and front seven currently being discussed along with the other positions.
We talk scheme fit and if BB would like them based on past tendencies. We also have the athletic testing accumulated so we know who is more aligned to being a fit.
I’m working on OT, CB, and Wr currently. I finished RB. We are writing reports for each guy and posting them to a google sheet.
So after last night, does Zach Wilson make it out of the top 5? Top 10?
Also, if the Pats end up drafting at 15, how much should they be willing to give up to go get a guy like Wilson? Or would it be better to stay put (trade back?) and take Mac Jones?
Also, if the Pats end up drafting at 15, how much should they be willing to give up to go get a guy like Wilson? Or would it be better to stay put (trade back?) and take Mac Jones?
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I don't think Wilson makes it out of the top 5; I've had him going #2 since the end of October.
I'm not even convinced Mac Jones lasts to 15. Most of Draft Twitter has him late 1st or into the 2nd but I think the NFL likes him a lot more than Draft Twitter does. I think once the season ends and coaches start getting more heavily involved in the draft process, they're really going to like him and you'll start to see him rise and rise in the internet rankings. There's a supply and demand problem, and Jones has a lot of the most important qualities you'd want from the position. (I could certainly end up being wrong on this one, but if I were forced to make a call one way or the other, I'd go with Mac Jones being a top 15 pick)
I'm not even convinced Mac Jones lasts to 15. Most of Draft Twitter has him late 1st or into the 2nd but I think the NFL likes him a lot more than Draft Twitter does. I think once the season ends and coaches start getting more heavily involved in the draft process, they're really going to like him and you'll start to see him rise and rise in the internet rankings. There's a supply and demand problem, and Jones has a lot of the most important qualities you'd want from the position. (I could certainly end up being wrong on this one, but if I were forced to make a call one way or the other, I'd go with Mac Jones being a top 15 pick)
So it sounds like best bet for a QB would be Mac Jones at 15 or a slight trade up?
It sounds like getting Wilson will cost too much.
It sounds like getting Wilson will cost too much.
Mac Jones strikes me a lot like somewhere between Mason Rudolph and Kirk Cousins. I think you might be able to win with him but he isn’t the most mobile guy. His arm talent is average. I can see why QB needy teams would want him because I think he might be able to be a low end starter but I fail to see anything electric or special about him.
I think he’s going to be over drafted for the skills he brings to the table. He’s also playing in a world class scheme with a whole team of first and second round talent around him. Surround him with good talent and rely on him being a QB pocket passing jugs machine and, again, you can win with him but show 0 elite traits that I can see.
Trask I have yet to decide but I also see the same lack of high ceiling traits. No mobility either. These guys are fossils to me.
I think he’s going to be over drafted for the skills he brings to the table. He’s also playing in a world class scheme with a whole team of first and second round talent around him. Surround him with good talent and rely on him being a QB pocket passing jugs machine and, again, you can win with him but show 0 elite traits that I can see.
Trask I have yet to decide but I also see the same lack of high ceiling traits. No mobility either. These guys are fossils to me.
Thank you for the update - so it sounds like if the Pats miss out on one of the top 4 QBs - they are better off waiting for a QB in rounds 2, 3, or 4?
If you are starting from scratch at QB I don’t see why you’d spend a first on someone whose ceiling is so limited. It’s like Schofield was saying - any QB these days needs mobility or the pocket presence of Tom Brady. Trask has a quick release but close to no mobility and for a big guy has a mediocre arm. I think Trask has a lot of good mental traits and there are things about him I like: he gets the ball out quickly and has good short to intermediate accuracy. He’s tough to bring down even though he isn’t mobile. But he is just another guy who at best you win with. He doesn’t elevate your team like a Lawrence will. Trask is also surrounded with talent: Pitts, Toney, Terry, Malik Davis, that’s 1 day 1 guy Toney is going top 50, Davis will be day 3 or UDFA, and Terry is probably going late day 2 or day 3. That’s a pretty good group of talent.
When I saw Jones move in the pocket and scramble, I thought...he's plenty athletic enough for the NFL. He won't be one of these Lamar Jackson types, obviously, but he moves well enough to scramble for key yards and run an occasional planned QB run. And while he doesn't have a Josh Allen kind of arm, what he brings to the table, besides an arm that is plenty strong enough, is:
- Excellent footwork and mechanics
- Excellent vision and decision-making
- Excellent accuracy
- A quick release
All things NFL quarterbacks need, and actually, all things Cam Newton is lacking.
If he could slip to the Pats, that would be a good pickup, IMO.
- Excellent footwork and mechanics
- Excellent vision and decision-making
- Excellent accuracy
- A quick release
All things NFL quarterbacks need, and actually, all things Cam Newton is lacking.
If he could slip to the Pats, that would be a good pickup, IMO.
Jones plays in the same system Tua did, has less talent (Jeudy, Ruggs, Waddle injury) and the offense is better than ever. Forget who he's throwing to for a moment and look at the ball placement. Bucket throws and tight-window throws are all over his resume. He moves in the pocket, throws off-platform when needed, and extends plays. He's not a scrambling threat and doesn't look impressive getting off the bus, but the dude can play. Outside of Lamar and Murray, most NFL QBs aren't running more than a couple of times a game anyhow. It's one less tool in the toolbelt but I can live with that if the processing and accuracy are there.
I'm sure I'm out on a limb a bit with Jones, but let's see where the consensus is on him in April.
I'm sure I'm out on a limb a bit with Jones, but let's see where the consensus is on him in April.
Granted I don't get into the intricacies like a lot of you (and thanks for that) but Jones worries me from the standpoint of the lack of NFL success from Bama QBs compared to other skill positions from the school. What makes him different and someone that can really succeed. I watched the SEC title game and was more impressed with Trask and his ability to fit balls into tighter windows. The windows for Jones in the NFL won't be nearly as big as they have been for him in college.
I don't see what past Alabama QBs have to do with anything. It's not like they've churned out tons of prospects that have busted. They've produced backup-type prospects who've had backup-type careers. How many schools have a great track record of producing QBs? No one in the SEC. Cal and Oklahoma are the only schools you could argue have more than one above-average starter in the NFL right now? Maybe NC State if you give them Russell Wilson.
Let's play the hypothetical.
Let's assume that everything breaks right for Jones and Trask as prospects.
Here are guys I think are better:
1) Mahomes
2) Watson
3) Brady
4) Brees
5) Russ
6) Rodgers
7) Herbert
8) Stafford (He is getting up there though)
9) Goff
10) Murray
11) Tannehill
12) Lamar Jackson
Ryan, Big-Ben are past their prime - same for Rivers. I like my Kirk Cousins comp for Mac Jones - they have a lot in common. The question I have for QBs to me is philosophical: do you go for a home-run swing or do you want a guy you can win with? There are not a ton of these guys you can win with. Goff, Cousins, to a lesser degree Tannehill. Having competent QB play when the alternative is... Stidham or Cam? That sounds great. But 10-20 range QBs don't win a lot of SBs these days unless they are with star-studded teams like Foles or Flacco when they won. I think for a team like the Steelers Mac Jones makes a lot of sense. You have dynamic options all over the place. You need someone to hit them with short and intermediate passes with accuracy. A team like the Steelers or 49ers would be great for Mac Jones because you just need him to execute at what he does well - get rid of the ball quickly. You can work with him at the helm. If things break down he has limited but some mobility. His designed runs are not going to be as successful in the NFL.
Is a mid-round first round pick fair value for someone like Cousins? Probably. I'm pickier with QB. I want top 10 kind of upside in the first. It's very binary - and it is a high threshold to ride this ride.
With respect to his surrounding talent vs Tua we are splitting hairs. Bama last year and this year has oodles of round 1/2/3 talent: C if healthy Landon Dickerson, LT/OG Leatherwood, RB Najee Harris is a freaking one man wrecking crew and my #1 guy at RB. Waddle, Smith, Metchie, are all going to be first or 2nd rounders.
If we were talking Trask or Mac Jones round 2-3 I think that's fine. Let's say Trey Lance and Mac Jones are both available at 15. I would swing for the fences with Lance 10/10 times over Jones. What about you all?
Let's assume that everything breaks right for Jones and Trask as prospects.
Here are guys I think are better:
1) Mahomes
2) Watson
3) Brady
4) Brees
5) Russ
6) Rodgers
7) Herbert
8) Stafford (He is getting up there though)
9) Goff
10) Murray
11) Tannehill
12) Lamar Jackson
Ryan, Big-Ben are past their prime - same for Rivers. I like my Kirk Cousins comp for Mac Jones - they have a lot in common. The question I have for QBs to me is philosophical: do you go for a home-run swing or do you want a guy you can win with? There are not a ton of these guys you can win with. Goff, Cousins, to a lesser degree Tannehill. Having competent QB play when the alternative is... Stidham or Cam? That sounds great. But 10-20 range QBs don't win a lot of SBs these days unless they are with star-studded teams like Foles or Flacco when they won. I think for a team like the Steelers Mac Jones makes a lot of sense. You have dynamic options all over the place. You need someone to hit them with short and intermediate passes with accuracy. A team like the Steelers or 49ers would be great for Mac Jones because you just need him to execute at what he does well - get rid of the ball quickly. You can work with him at the helm. If things break down he has limited but some mobility. His designed runs are not going to be as successful in the NFL.
Is a mid-round first round pick fair value for someone like Cousins? Probably. I'm pickier with QB. I want top 10 kind of upside in the first. It's very binary - and it is a high threshold to ride this ride.
With respect to his surrounding talent vs Tua we are splitting hairs. Bama last year and this year has oodles of round 1/2/3 talent: C if healthy Landon Dickerson, LT/OG Leatherwood, RB Najee Harris is a freaking one man wrecking crew and my #1 guy at RB. Waddle, Smith, Metchie, are all going to be first or 2nd rounders.
If we were talking Trask or Mac Jones round 2-3 I think that's fine. Let's say Trey Lance and Mac Jones are both available at 15. I would swing for the fences with Lance 10/10 times over Jones. What about you all?
Yeah, I'd take Lance over Jones as well. Lance has a really high ceiling.
But I'd also say Jimmy G was a play away from winning a Super Bowl. As was Matt Ryan. Goff nearly won one. You don't NEED Mahommes or Brady, those guys just give you a bigger margin of error. If I could get Kirk Cousins on a rookie contract, surround him with a great roster and the GOAT coach, that's pretty damn good. I think you can win with Mac Jones. There's less margin for error, but you can win with him.
But I'd also say Jimmy G was a play away from winning a Super Bowl. As was Matt Ryan. Goff nearly won one. You don't NEED Mahommes or Brady, those guys just give you a bigger margin of error. If I could get Kirk Cousins on a rookie contract, surround him with a great roster and the GOAT coach, that's pretty damn good. I think you can win with Mac Jones. There's less margin for error, but you can win with him.
I don't disagree with this but I disagree with you on what constitutes QB upside. To me it's a lot less about the physical traits and a lot more about the stuff @BaseballJones highlighted:
There are guys who fail because they have bad arms or are terrible athletes or whatever, but the great ones succeed because of these more technical skills, IMO.
(I haven't watched Jones even a little so I don't have an opinion on BJ's scouting report ... but if he's right, I think this stuff is way more important than who can throw through a wall or who runs the best 40 time).
Completely agree you can win with him. I also think there are better situations for Mac Jones like SF, PIT, NO, DET, CHI, DEN, ATL vs NEP. All of those places have good receiving corps - whereas we have nothing (CHI has a big FA).
What if the choice is Mac Jones or... either trade down or Christian Darrisaw, Jaycee Horn, Zaven Collins? I think right now if the choice is getting premium players vs a mid-level QB I'd rather have the premium talent.
As for the mental traits and accuracy. You can't be a high end prospect and not have that. Electric athletes at QB who are terrible with accuracy or decision making are going to fail. Even if they have a big arm and run a 4.3. You need a lot of things to be a good QB. Reading leverage, manipulating 2nd level defenders and safeties, quick processing and decision making, touch, etc. I want all of those things +. I honestly have some real reservations with Fields right now because of his processing and decision making. I am not pigeon-holing myself into being one quadrant of a 3-d cube of physical and mental traits. But like Watson and Mahomes weren't just good because of their athleticism. They both had A+ mental games - Mahomes had special vision. Watson had mental toughness on top of mental toughness.
Everything that @BaseballJones likes about Mac Jones I attribute to Zach Wilson and he is my QB2 - so it isn't just the super athletes that do it for me. Wilson also has only a slightly above average arm in terms of strength but has great touch and accuracy.
Biggest differences is Wilson is miles better than Mac Jones out of structure and is more mobile. Wilson also can throw on the run from different arm slots effectively. He can solve more problems in more ways than Jones. Again, not a super athlete or super mobile guy here but does a lot of little things very well.
Biggest differences is Wilson is miles better than Mac Jones out of structure and is more mobile. Wilson also can throw on the run from different arm slots effectively. He can solve more problems in more ways than Jones. Again, not a super athlete or super mobile guy here but does a lot of little things very well.
Well, I asked because I worry about spending a top 15 pick on a guy from a school that prior to this year hasn't produced a starter since the 1960s. This is why I tried to genuinely ask what makes different, Why is he different than other guys that succeeded under Saban, but not in the NFL, but thanks for what came off as a condescending reply.
Agreed not trying to be a prick either, because other QBs have been just as successful under Saban. I was just curious what traits Jones has that the others didn't that will translate to the NFL, especially if they are to consider a top 15 pick on him.
Don't scout the helmet scout the traits.
Jones has average to above average arm strength, accuracy at all levels of the field. He is a pocket passing prospect. I agree with his ability to make decisions well with the caveat that he has Goff syndrome where if the post snap coverage changes from what he anticipated he doesn't always update his reads and it can lead to poor decisions. A lot of passers have that issue especially in college. A lot of times his first read is open too. I think even though we disagree on Mac Jones we all still see him as a top 100 guy.
Not a ton of schools consistently generate NFL QBs. You are talking about a tiny sample size anyway.
Jones has average to above average arm strength, accuracy at all levels of the field. He is a pocket passing prospect. I agree with his ability to make decisions well with the caveat that he has Goff syndrome where if the post snap coverage changes from what he anticipated he doesn't always update his reads and it can lead to poor decisions. A lot of passers have that issue especially in college. A lot of times his first read is open too. I think even though we disagree on Mac Jones we all still see him as a top 100 guy.
Not a ton of schools consistently generate NFL QBs. You are talking about a tiny sample size anyway.
Thanks for the reply. I agree with what you're saying about reads and decisions. I think that is the most difficult thing when it comes to QBs rookies or vets alike. I like the other top guys better than both Jones and Trask. It's probably overzealous but I use whatever capital it might take to go get Wilson or Lance.
I think SF is going to love Mac Jones. But if he's available for NE's pick, I'd pull the trigger. Rookie QB, use the cap space to build the roster and go from there. Mac Jones throwing to to the current NE squad? No way. But I have to believe BB is going to address the receiving corps in a meaningful way. It's entirely possible Jones doesn't do it for NE. They're a hell of a lot better at this than me. If they don't like him, I'd hope they go the bridge route, build the roster and try again next year. But I personally really like Mac. That Florida game this weekend was full of really high-end throws.
I finished my review on Toney. Isn’t perfect but I have an 8+ on him which is a first round grade. I love him and I love his fit on the Pats. @Super Nomario asked if he runs a lot of option routes. At first I thought the answer was no because a lot of his routes involve vertical stems but it turned out a lot of his production was running ridiculous joystick option routes. I think he has better short area COD than Waddle. I like Waddle more as a traditional Z whereas Toney is slot/Z/RB and has all the KR and PR you could want.
Edit: Mullens option routes are different than ours but it’s the same basis for having the WR need to adjust based on coverage and run a different route to attack the positioning/leverage
My top four WR would be:
1. Chase
2. Pitts
3. Smith
4. Toney
After that, it gets messy for me. Olave would probably be my #5, but Justyn Ross could be there with a 100% clean bill of health. Waddle is in the picture but I see him as a 2nd round value with the rest of that tier.
1. Chase
2. Pitts
3. Smith
4. Toney
After that, it gets messy for me. Olave would probably be my #5, but Justyn Ross could be there with a 100% clean bill of health. Waddle is in the picture but I see him as a 2nd round value with the rest of that tier.
But this is obviously just superstition, right? Because nothing that happened with Alabama QBs from the '60's through 2007 when Saban arrived has anything to do with Mac Jones. If you want to look at what, the four drafted QBs under Saban since then, knock yourself out, but the reality is they basically performed to their draft status, except for the young guys for whom the jury is still out.
"Scout the player, not the helmet" is a scouting axiom for a reason. A history of good players at a position from a school doesn't make the next guy good, nor does the converse make the next guy worse. They're all individuals to be evaluated individually.
Ran into this article on Walterfootball, which cites character concerns regarding Zach Wilson. One team insider describes Wilson as:
"Johnny Manziel comp without the [drugs]. [Wilson] is fun to watch, but is he a 1-year flash in the pan? Someone will grab him in the first [round]. I doubt he gets to the second [round] because once the third quarterback goes, after Lawrence and Fields, there will be a run on them. [Wilson] has character concerns, rich kid who is an entitled brat -- uncle owns Jet Blue -- parents are a pain, not a leader, selfish, and he's a know-it-all."
(Put me down for Trey Lance or Mac Jones.)
"Johnny Manziel comp without the [drugs]. [Wilson] is fun to watch, but is he a 1-year flash in the pan? Someone will grab him in the first [round]. I doubt he gets to the second [round] because once the third quarterback goes, after Lawrence and Fields, there will be a run on them. [Wilson] has character concerns, rich kid who is an entitled brat -- uncle owns Jet Blue -- parents are a pain, not a leader, selfish, and he's a know-it-all."
(Put me down for Trey Lance or Mac Jones.)
His teammates, coaches, and a bunch of other NFL scouts and front office folks clap back.
Not to pick on you but 1) WalterFootball is a garbage site where a ton of misinformation is peddled and 2) We are in silly season. It's here. You are about to hear a ton of rumors. Some of them will be true. Some of them, probably like this one with Wilson, are going to be smoke screens or false.
Another thing. A ton of QBs are rich white kids that go to QB camps. That's just the nature of the beast these days. This isn't like Rosen where his coach was lukewarm on him and you had multiple leaks about his character and concerns there. I think there are good reasons to ding Wilson but that hogwash ain't it.
Fair enough. I've read more and, yes, it now seems like transparent garbage. My bad.
Any interest in Pat Freiermuth, TE, from PSU? Seems like a well rounded skill set, great size (6'5", 260), a two-time team captain, and from Merrimac, MA. Shoulder injury and all, and I know we've invested in the position recently, but we could use 2-3 more playmakers on offense. He could be a good value in Round 2.
I find Jones hard to get a read on.
Part of it is, he's kind of not that important to the ALA offense? I mean, they have a dominant line, dominant rushers and dominant receivers, his job seems pretty limited. It's easier to get a read on a guy who has to carry his team and create offense than one who is just asked to not screw it up.
Overall though.... His arm seems okay, his accuracy on short and medium throws is very good, I don't think his footwork is great, but it isn't awful. I also have no idea what he'd be like under real pressure, he doesn't face much, and what he does seems to usually be that late, half pressure, not real NFL style quick pressure.
I don't have much interest in him honestly. He seems like a guy who if everything goes right is Kirk Cousins, but more likely is a backup.
I guess I just don't see what really separates him from Jake Fromm other than being on a much better team.
Part of it is, he's kind of not that important to the ALA offense? I mean, they have a dominant line, dominant rushers and dominant receivers, his job seems pretty limited. It's easier to get a read on a guy who has to carry his team and create offense than one who is just asked to not screw it up.
Overall though.... His arm seems okay, his accuracy on short and medium throws is very good, I don't think his footwork is great, but it isn't awful. I also have no idea what he'd be like under real pressure, he doesn't face much, and what he does seems to usually be that late, half pressure, not real NFL style quick pressure.
I don't have much interest in him honestly. He seems like a guy who if everything goes right is Kirk Cousins, but more likely is a backup.
I guess I just don't see what really separates him from Jake Fromm other than being on a much better team.
I know I like Ridder more than most. But look at that TD against Georgia right before halftime. Him resetting before he made that throw is HUGE. Cam and so many other QBs don't do that and that was an advanced thing to do. His ability to extend plays is incredible. I still can't shutup about resetting... very impressive.
It's early, but I'm simultaneously very impressed with the Alabama skill players, and not that impressed with Jones. He's doing some weird foot chopping stuff, and he just made an awful throw that Billingsley stole from the DB.
Smith and Billingsley (and Harris) look legit though.
Smith and Billingsley (and Harris) look legit though.
My (very) early sleeper pick for #15: Carlos Basham.
Why? In the first round, particularly as early as NE is picking, you want to get a guy with a physical skill level that's hard to find. Carlos Basham has a RARE athletic profile. Draftscout (which does a really good job of getting physical measurements) has Basham at 6'4 1/8, 285 with a 4.68 40. Bruce Feldman placed Basham 2nd on his annual physical freaks list, with a 400# press, 700# squat, 36" vertical, and 4.21 short shuttle. You just don't find those sorts of numbers on a 6'4, 285# human.
Okay, but does that translate to production? Well, 10 sacks as a junior and then 5 sacks in 6 games as a senior. Wake generally played him as a DE, but he was also athletic enough to stand up and rush, and kick inside as well. While he's not an elite edge setter, he has the length, mass, and power to handle that responsibility in NE's defense. They've typically been using guys like Simon, Calhoun, Bowser, Jennings, and Wino in that role. Those guys are in the 250-265 range. Basham has 20+ #s on them, with the frame to add even more good weight. Oh, and he's also faster than all of them, too (with the possible exception of Wino).
5th year senior and team captain lead me to believe that the intangibles are there that will appeal to BB. It's pretty clear (and was as pointed out in last week's Breer article), this team - and particularly the front 7 - needs more three down players who can handle the run and pass. There's too many package guys that can only do one or the other (and some who can't really do either, but that's another story). Basham profiles as a three down player with rare physical traits. He even covers kicks at 285#. You just don't run across guys like him every day.
Draft Twitter generally has Basham as a late first into the 2nd round, so 15 feels like a stretch right now. Brugler has Basham as his 6th best edge prospect, so it's possible I'm seeing things that aren't there. But I have a good feeling Basham is going to start building Twitter momentum starting with the Senior Bowl weigh-ins that will only go up once he has his combine workout (assuming there's a combine this year). I think coaches are also going to like him based on production and makeup.
There are some really interesting edge guys who will likely be candidates in the 15 range, including Paye and Rousseau. But I think Basham has some qualities that BB is going to really like, including mass and power.
As an addendum, I liked Rousseau's tape over Basham's. Rousseau had more splash and juice; rangy, functional power, and very disruptive. Draftscout had him a shade under 6'5, 260#. Looks the part, but could use more mass. That said, I just don't see BB taking a one year player in the 1st round. Particularly one who opted out of playing a 2nd season Just doesn't fit with what I've seen from him.
Kwity Paye would definitely be a consideration. 6'2 6/8, 272#. Very athletic and disruptive. Doesn't have the length of Basham or Rosseau, but he could conceivably have the power to set the edge and hold up at the POA. Definitely has the athleticism to do the other things NE wants from its DE/OLB types. Paye makes perfect sense in this range, but I highlighted Basham as an under the radar type who could also end up in this range.
Why? In the first round, particularly as early as NE is picking, you want to get a guy with a physical skill level that's hard to find. Carlos Basham has a RARE athletic profile. Draftscout (which does a really good job of getting physical measurements) has Basham at 6'4 1/8, 285 with a 4.68 40. Bruce Feldman placed Basham 2nd on his annual physical freaks list, with a 400# press, 700# squat, 36" vertical, and 4.21 short shuttle. You just don't find those sorts of numbers on a 6'4, 285# human.
Okay, but does that translate to production? Well, 10 sacks as a junior and then 5 sacks in 6 games as a senior. Wake generally played him as a DE, but he was also athletic enough to stand up and rush, and kick inside as well. While he's not an elite edge setter, he has the length, mass, and power to handle that responsibility in NE's defense. They've typically been using guys like Simon, Calhoun, Bowser, Jennings, and Wino in that role. Those guys are in the 250-265 range. Basham has 20+ #s on them, with the frame to add even more good weight. Oh, and he's also faster than all of them, too (with the possible exception of Wino).
5th year senior and team captain lead me to believe that the intangibles are there that will appeal to BB. It's pretty clear (and was as pointed out in last week's Breer article), this team - and particularly the front 7 - needs more three down players who can handle the run and pass. There's too many package guys that can only do one or the other (and some who can't really do either, but that's another story). Basham profiles as a three down player with rare physical traits. He even covers kicks at 285#. You just don't run across guys like him every day.
Draft Twitter generally has Basham as a late first into the 2nd round, so 15 feels like a stretch right now. Brugler has Basham as his 6th best edge prospect, so it's possible I'm seeing things that aren't there. But I have a good feeling Basham is going to start building Twitter momentum starting with the Senior Bowl weigh-ins that will only go up once he has his combine workout (assuming there's a combine this year). I think coaches are also going to like him based on production and makeup.
There are some really interesting edge guys who will likely be candidates in the 15 range, including Paye and Rousseau. But I think Basham has some qualities that BB is going to really like, including mass and power.
As an addendum, I liked Rousseau's tape over Basham's. Rousseau had more splash and juice; rangy, functional power, and very disruptive. Draftscout had him a shade under 6'5, 260#. Looks the part, but could use more mass. That said, I just don't see BB taking a one year player in the 1st round. Particularly one who opted out of playing a 2nd season Just doesn't fit with what I've seen from him.
Kwity Paye would definitely be a consideration. 6'2 6/8, 272#. Very athletic and disruptive. Doesn't have the length of Basham or Rosseau, but he could conceivably have the power to set the edge and hold up at the POA. Definitely has the athleticism to do the other things NE wants from its DE/OLB types. Paye makes perfect sense in this range, but I highlighted Basham as an under the radar type who could also end up in this range.
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Your description of Boogie Basham is accurate and you can also add his streak of 23 consecutive games with a tackle for loss to your assessment. He is very skilled at getting into the opponent's backfield which is probably due to that impressive upper and lower body strength. I love his game and his athleticism but based on nothing more than my eye test 15 just seems too high. If BB wants him then trade down and add a 3rd. He is definitely on my watch list for the senior bowl (along with my other Wake fav Jamie Newman)
Guessing I watch as much Wake Forest football as anybody 'round these parts, and am a fan of the aforementioned Basham (just a great motor) and Newman (good mobility and arm strength, though touch and accuracy can be wanting).
For the hell of it, I'll also mention Wake's WR prospect Sage Surratt who should also be on the Pats' list somewhere. Terrific size at 6'3", 215, he's very reliable in the red zone and along the sidelines. Great route-running and hands. Not a burner, so separation may be a challenge... and yes, I'm aware that profile is reminiscent of another WR on the roster who hasn't panned out as hoped for. But I enjoyed watching him play in college and he came up big against all ACC competition. Round 3-4 projection.
For the hell of it, I'll also mention Wake's WR prospect Sage Surratt who should also be on the Pats' list somewhere. Terrific size at 6'3", 215, he's very reliable in the red zone and along the sidelines. Great route-running and hands. Not a burner, so separation may be a challenge... and yes, I'm aware that profile is reminiscent of another WR on the roster who hasn't panned out as hoped for. But I enjoyed watching him play in college and he came up big against all ACC competition. Round 3-4 projection.
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You're running the Pats and you're there with the 15th pick. And still on the board are:
TE Pitts, Fla
QB Wilson, BYU
DE Rousseau, Mia
WR Waddle, Ala
Do you take one of these four? If so, whom, and why? Or do you try to trade down? Or do you use the pick on someone else entirely?
TE Pitts, Fla
QB Wilson, BYU
DE Rousseau, Mia
WR Waddle, Ala
Do you take one of these four? If so, whom, and why? Or do you try to trade down? Or do you use the pick on someone else entirely?
Would be very pleased to take any of those 4 at #15 but especially Wilson and Pitts. Pitts is an incredible talent and a matchup nightmare. He would be a great addition to a team without a real TE. Waddle is an electric WR who possesses speed that nobody on the offense comes even close to having. Josh would know what to do with him. Rousseau has physical talent but is somewhat raw based on what I've seen. But the front 7 desperately needs playmakers so he'd be a fine pick as well.
Based on the early chatter/mocks, Wilson is a top-3 pick, Pitts a top-10, and Rousseau likely gone before 15 given the premium placed on pass rushers. Obviously, lots can change between now and the draft and the raw talent displayed by all of those 3 would make them strong candidates at 15 even with some minor flag driving down their draft stock.
No doubt, Bill will get lots of insider info from Saban on the Alabama players. In the mix with Waddle around 15, I could see Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Notre Dame), Paye (edge, Michigan), Campbell (CB, Georgia), and maybe even Barmore (DL, Bama) given his ridiculous showing last night. But lots of rumors, smokescreens, medicals, and measurements to go.
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Owusu-Koramoah is way too small for BB at LB but maybe he would be another SS type here. Has some overlap with Dugger though so not sure he is the guy.
I would take Wilson and that is a no-brainer for me. They need a QB.
I am going to make a charity bet right now. If they take Mac Jones in the first I will give $50, and $25 in the second. I do NOT want them to take him.
Guys I think fit at 15: Pitts, Waddle, Darrisaw, Slater, Horn, Barmore, Collins, Paye, Rousseau, Phillips, Ojulari. DeVonta is a fit too but would BB take a 175 pound receiver without elite athleticism at 15?
There are a lot of edge guys who are projected to go in the mid to late first. Maybe this is the year BB takes one of them. As SN pointed out he doesn't take edges in the top 50 very often (Jones) but that is because edge is often depleted by the time they pick. This draft only 1 or 2 edges might be off the board so BB could take a top-shelf guy.
This is a deep OT, WR, and CB class but thin at IDL and edge after the top end talent (DT is very thin) so I would assume they go front 7 early and then other positions later. Front 7 is a huge need anyway.
I would take Wilson and that is a no-brainer for me. They need a QB.
I am going to make a charity bet right now. If they take Mac Jones in the first I will give $50, and $25 in the second. I do NOT want them to take him.
Guys I think fit at 15: Pitts, Waddle, Darrisaw, Slater, Horn, Barmore, Collins, Paye, Rousseau, Phillips, Ojulari. DeVonta is a fit too but would BB take a 175 pound receiver without elite athleticism at 15?
There are a lot of edge guys who are projected to go in the mid to late first. Maybe this is the year BB takes one of them. As SN pointed out he doesn't take edges in the top 50 very often (Jones) but that is because edge is often depleted by the time they pick. This draft only 1 or 2 edges might be off the board so BB could take a top-shelf guy.
This is a deep OT, WR, and CB class but thin at IDL and edge after the top end talent (DT is very thin) so I would assume they go front 7 early and then other positions later. Front 7 is a huge need anyway.
Of course not, but A) in the past few years they've stood pat a few times in the first round, and B) they have very rarely picked in the top 20 in the past 20 years, there is a real chance to grab a more talented player than usual, especially if they want to trade up 2-3 spots.