A lot of 2021 will really depend on how much and for what the Red Sox move from the 2020 squad. While I expect teams may be hesitant to pay a significant premium for rentals, the Red Sox can sell some pieces with term. To me, a lot depends on the following guys:
- Nathan Eovaldi -- he's suddenly maybe more important to this team than we thought, even at 17M. Will a team take on the final two years and 34M of his deal as a deadline buy? Could we get something back if we subsidized some of those final two years? Is that worth it to us given how few major league SP we have?
- J.D. Martinez -- I don't see Martinez has an opt-out risk at this point considering what the market is likely to be, and at the same time I expect his trade value to perhaps have improved given the 2021 commitment to the DH. I think the Red Sox could fetch a decent return for him if he hits to the deadline.
- Mitch Moreland -- Like Martinez, I wonder if there's a possibility to get a real return on Moreland; 1/2 the league is now running into DH positions they weren't anticipating having, and Moreland is cheap, just 3.5M T option next year.
- Matt Barnes -- Barnes will be a free-agent after 2021 and is our second best RP, but if there's an opportunity for a return on a guy that is headed to a walk year next year, might be time on him.
- Heath Hembree -- Hembree has looked terrific to start this year; he's always had nice stuff and looks to be healthy. As another guy who expires in 2021, if there's a return there that's good it is worth exploring rather than losing leverage on a potential rental in 2021.
Couple those five names with potentially productive rentals like Jackie Bradley, Jr., Kevin Pillar and Brandon Workman, I'd hope Bloom would have some activity going -- I wouldn't expect all to go (for instance, if Pillar goes they probably hang onto JBJ, I doubt they trade all three of Workman, Barnes and Hembree, Moreland may have taken a discount to stick here with the understanding he wouldn't be traded) but the hope would be to get a few major league pieces back for 2021.
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Like others have said, though, I don't think 2021 looks like a compete year, but a few things I'm interested in:
- If Martinez/Moreland go, does it make sense to trial Devers at 1B? Whatever metric you look at over at 3B makes him look pretty rough [F%, Rdrs, etc.]
- What will some of these pitchers show as the year goes on? You're hoping that you have at least a few things emerge as potential contributors to the 2021 club -- I've personally been impressed with Valdez, Brewer [potentially as a Ryne Stanek type who you don't 100% trust because of meh control], Osich [middle reliever] and Mazza [small sample, but I liked him coming into the year as a competent groundballer/innings eater]. I was optimistic that we'd get more from Hall, Weber and Springs, but that has been a disaster to date. Hall and Weber may not have major league stuff but I'd like to see more from Springs. Also interested to see whether Walden and Brasier were just pan flashes.
- What exactly do we have in Andrew Benintendi here? Moving on from JBJ/Pillar and moving Beni to CF would put less stress on the bat if he can handle the position.
- How good is Christian Vazquez? SSS but holy cow. Is he still a 7-9 hitter or is he a 5/6 guy now?
In terms of positions I'd pursue, I'd like the Red Sox to sign a legitimate, competent all-around 3B ... plus glove, plus bat type. Rendon would've been awesome. I'm in favor of shifting Devers to 1B. I'd also like to see if Benintendi can handle CF so that I could hide a defensively mediocre OF in LF with a big stick. Not sure it's smart to pay much for pitching, so I'd continue to kick the can for Martin Perez types [6.75m option might be reasonable] to add depth.