2023-2024 General NBA Season Thread

m0ckduck

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Yep, once Philly adds that piece they'll be more dangerous than the BUCKs.
I know you're not a fan but Morey has done a good job, of turning the Harden situation into draft assets, usable vets, and filler to trade.
Agree about Morey, but I have trouble seeing who that high-impact piece could be. Siakam is the most attainable All-Star caliber player, but not sure about the fit there— seems like Philly would want to go 4-out around Embiid rather than adding another player who lives in the paint. Dejounte Murray would be great, but the competition for him is likely too steep if he's on the block. Of course, they can improve by adding some role players around the edges, but the team already is kinda "Embiid + Maxey with a bunch of good role players", so the room for improvement there doesn't seem so dramatic. Bojan Bogdan Bogdanovich might be the most interesting name out there... ?
 
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benhogan

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Agree about Morey, but I have trouble seeing who that high-impact piece could be. Siakam is the most attainable All-Star caliber player, but not sure about the fit there— seems like Philly would want to go 4-out around Embiid rather than adding another player who lives in the paint. Dejounte Murray would be great, but the competition for him is likely too steep if he's on the block. Of course, they can improve by adding some role players around the edges, but the team already is kinda "Embiid + Maxey with a bunch of good role players", so the room for improvement there doesn't seem so dramatic. Bojan Bogdanovich might be the most interesting name out there... ?
It's tough to predict what will be out there with 6 weeks to go.

As we've seen 100X before Stars can demand exits from non-contenders (and they may envision themselves as the final 76er piece). I'd say there will be 15 clear-cut non-contenders by the trade deadline. I fully expect Morey to back-channel with agents and stir up some discontent amongst the elite players since he has the chips to play.

A 34-year-old Bojan Bogdanovich isn't any kind of needle mover, Detroit missed their payday on him last year IMO. Is he worth any more than Malcolm Brogdon? which is two 2nds at this point.
 

DavidTai

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Agree about Morey, but I have trouble seeing who that high-impact piece could be. Siakam is the most attainable All-Star caliber player, but not sure about the fit there— seems like Philly would want to go 4-out around Embiid rather than adding another player who lives in the paint. Dejounte Murray would be great, but the competition for him is likely too steep if he's on the block. Of course, they can improve by adding some role players around the edges, but the team already is kinda "Embiid + Maxey with a bunch of good role players", so the room for improvement there doesn't seem so dramatic. Bojan Bogdanovich might be the most interesting name out there... ?
Lauri Markannen would seem like the best fit, really, if Morey could agree on a price with Ainge (which seems really unlikely)
 

lovegtm

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Lauri Markannen would seem like the best fit, really, if Morey could agree on a price with Ainge (which seems really unlikely)
Maybe Ainge thinks he can move Lauri in the summer for a haul, but that contract is rapidly approaching OG/FVV "oh shit we better do something with this he's really gonna walk isn't he??" territory.
 

Euclis20

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Seems like the price for Markannen would be way too high.

If the Warriors keep tumbling, I wonder if there's a point at which they decide to cut bait on Klay. If they get to that point, I think Philly would have some interest as his shooting would fit great as the 3rd option after Embiid/Maxey.
 

DavidTai

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Maybe Ainge thinks he can move Lauri in the summer for a haul, but that contract is rapidly approaching OG/FVV "oh shit we better do something with this he's really gonna walk isn't he??" territory.
Not sure, Lauri seems perfectly willing to stay in Utah on an extension. It's a bit more like Siakam, isn't it?
 

m0ckduck

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Lauri Markannen would seem like the best fit, really, if Morey could agree on a price with Ainge (which seems really unlikely)
Not sure, Lauri seems perfectly willing to stay in Utah on an extension. It's a bit more like Siakam, isn't it?
Yeah, I left Markannen out b/c I don't think Utah will trade him, and I think OKC would match or beat any offer if he was made available.

Klay is a really interesting idea, but he seems like a one-good-game-a-week player at this point. I'm not sure you can have him and perennially-beat-up Embiid in the playoffs as 2 of your 3 guys.

A 34-year-old Bojan Bogdanovich isn't any kind of needle mover, Detroit missed their payday on him last year IMO. Is he worth any more than Malcolm Brogdon? which is two 2nds at this point.
Brainfart, I meant Hawks' Bogdan Bogdanovich. His availability isn't confirmed, but there's a fair bit of chatter.
 

lovegtm

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Not sure, Lauri seems perfectly willing to stay in Utah on an extension. It's a bit more like Siakam, isn't it?
He can't extend there for anything like he'd get on the open market. Think the most he can do is $26M/year or so, which is less than RJ Barrett money. He's taking this to UFA, and why would he stay in Utah at that point?
 

DavidTai

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the moops

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I think I have all this correct, but who knows

PHI owes their 2025 1st to OKC, and their 2027 to BRK.

They are getting the worst 1st in 2026 of OKC, HOU, LAC, and a 2028 1st from LAC. They have a pick swap in 2029 from LAC as well.

So 1st round picks it looks like they have 1 pick in 2024, 2 picks in 2026, 2 in 2028, 1 in 2029, and 1 in 2030. They can't trade their 2024, because they owe a 2025 to OKC. And they can only trade one each of their 2026 and 2028 picks because they owe their own to BRK in 2027. Their 2029 swap or their own 2030 is available

So they can cobble together 3 picks if they want/need. A very bad 1st in 2026 (worst of OKC/HOU/LAC), a perhaps decent 2028 from LAC, and one of either the 2029 swap or their own 2030. They have nothing in terms of young talent to trade though, which is an issue.

TOR doesn't seem like they are going to tank, so I can't see how those picks net them Siakam. And if Markkanen is traded there will be way better deals out there.
 

lovegtm

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wade boggs chicken dinner

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He can't extend there for anything like he'd get on the open market. Think the most he can do is $26M/year or so, which is less than RJ Barrett money. He's taking this to UFA, and why would he stay in Utah at that point?
You know the cap rules better than I can but this article - https://www.sltrib.com/sports/jazz/2023/09/21/andy-larsen-looking-ahead-lauri/ - says that UT can add additional money to the final year of his contract to "incentivize" him to sign an extension and then base the extension off of that increased salary. Apparently, that's what UT did for Clarkson and SAC for Sabonis.

The article suggests that type of extension deal would be close to market. Author sounds like he knows what he's talking about but I can't confirm or deny.
 

Swedgin

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You know the cap rules better than I can but this article - https://www.sltrib.com/sports/jazz/2023/09/21/andy-larsen-looking-ahead-lauri/ - says that UT can add additional money to the final year of his contract to "incentivize" him to sign an extension and then base the extension off of that increased salary. Apparently, that's what UT did for Clarkson and SAC for Sabonis.

The article suggests that type of extension deal would be close to market. Author sounds like he knows what he's talking about but I can't confirm or deny.
A renegotiate and extend - Indy did it with Myles Turner. Just requires that the team have cap space in order to do to the re-negotiate part.

Siakam strikes me as a much better fit for Philly than Murray. I feel like the Atlanta experience has shown Murray is most effective with the ball in his hands - and so is Maxey. Whereas Siakam fits very well with Embiid - because Embiid he lives in the mid-range (where Siakam takes very few shots) more so than the post.
 

the moops

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Siakam strikes me as a much better fit for Philly than Murray. I feel like the Atlanta experience has shown Murray is most effective with the ball in his hands - and so is Maxey. Whereas Siakam fits very well with Embiid - because Embiid he lives in the mid-range (where Siakam takes very few shots) more so than the post.
Siakam is a terrible fit in PHI. They both live inside of 16 feet. Sure, Embiid takes a few more midrange jumpers, but they have nearly identical #'s in the restricted area and in the paint. Siakam is shooting 29% from three, so he is going to be left alone out there. Not much room for Embiid to work the midrange with Siakam hanging in the dunkers spot
 

Euclis20

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Siakam is in this strange spot where he's definitely the best player available (about to be a free agent for a team that's going nowhere, 29 with 2 all-NBA appearances and title experience, good size and a legit 2-way player), but his poor shooting makes him a lousy fit for most of the teams looking for help (Lakers, Sixers, Warriors). I don't know if he fits on the court with any team that can't surround him with 4 average or better 3 point shooters. Curious to see how it shapes up.

Without Ja, Memphis beat Phoenix, even with Durant/Beal/Booker all playing. Memphis is 7-4 since Ja returned, if they continue at that rate they'll finish with 42 wins which just might be enough to get to the play in (and hopefully push out one or both of the Lakers/Warriors).
 

the moops

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Siakam is in this strange spot where he's definitely the best player available (about to be a free agent for a team that's going nowhere, 29 with 2 all-NBA appearances and title experience, good size and a legit 2-way player), but his poor shooting makes him a lousy fit for most of the teams looking for help (Lakers, Sixers, Warriors). I don't know if he fits on the court with any team that can't surround him with 4 average or better 3 point shooters. Curious to see how it shapes up.
He would fit very well on IND, but if I were them I wouldn't throw assets at TOR. Seems too early in their run
 

Euclis20

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He would fit very well on IND, but if I were them I wouldn't throw assets at TOR. Seems too early in their run
Agreed. Honestly I wonder if them making the IST final is gonna end up looking like Atlanta's run to the ECF in 2021. They absolutely should not operate assuming they are 1 move away from title contention.
 

lovegtm

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Agreed. Honestly I wonder if them making the IST final is gonna end up looking like Atlanta's run to the ECF in 2021. They absolutely should not operate assuming they are 1 move away from title contention.
Indy doesn't seem unrealistic about their prospects though, afaict. I think the IST run was a nice thing, gave some confidence, but I don't get the impression they're going all-in.

You know the cap rules better than I can but this article - https://www.sltrib.com/sports/jazz/2023/09/21/andy-larsen-looking-ahead-lauri/ - says that UT can add additional money to the final year of his contract to "incentivize" him to sign an extension and then base the extension off of that increased salary. Apparently, that's what UT did for Clarkson and SAC for Sabonis.

The article suggests that type of extension deal would be close to market. Author sounds like he knows what he's talking about but I can't confirm or deny.
You're correct--I forgot that Utah has lots of cap space.
 

Jakarta

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Agreed. Honestly I wonder if them making the IST final is gonna end up looking like Atlanta's run to the ECF in 2021. They absolutely should not operate assuming they are 1 move away from title contention.
I actually think they should go for it. They don’t have any young studs (other than Haliburton), they project to have mediocre picks for the foreseeable future, and don’t have any other good picks to trade. It’s hard to see how they can realistically improve dramatically enough to be in the same tier as the top contenders.

Except in the case of Toronto seemingly not wanting to bottom out. Hard to know what Toronto would value, but would something like Mathurin, Jalen Smith (recent high draft pick who seems to be figuring things out) Jarace Walker (recent high draft pick with some upside to dream on), and Hield plus a first get it done? What if they added Nesmith?

This all assumes they would be confident they could re-sign Siakam.
 

Jakarta

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Seeding aside (the last couple years have made me care about it far less), we're also starting to see the true quality of Milwaukee and Philly after close wins and easy schedules made them look more like peers of Boston than they are.

They're good but flawed teams that are another piece away. The scary thing about Philly is that they absolutely have the salaries and assets to go get that piece.
If I were a betting man I would be hammering the Bucks regular season under total at the moment. They have one of the hardest remaining schedules, and Giannis and Dame have combined to miss 3 games all year. Giannis is also averaging his most MPG since his age 23 season. Both guys seem very likely to miss more time over the last 46 games. Dame is in a bad slump from 3 (7-37 over his last 5 games) which isn’t likely to last, but he’s having his worst season (except for the injury plagued year 2 years ago) since at least 2018-19. Would love to see what his DARKO curve looks like. They also have no assets to trade.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Boy….Memphis has to ponder dumping assets and maximizing their pick now don’t they?
 

Euclis20

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Boy….Memphis has to ponder dumping assets and maximizing their pick now don’t they?
Maybe, but do they have that much to dump? Everyone important is signed for next year, their stars are just hitting their primes (Ja and JJJ will be 25, Bane will be 26) and some key role players should still be effective (Kenard will be 28, Smart will be 30, Adams will somehow still be just 31). If they play it right this could be their last chance to grab a high lottery pick with the Ja/JJJ/Bane group, but I don't know that they have much worth shipping out that they wouldn't rather just keep for next year.

Bucks lose to the Jazz in Milwaukee, by 16. They've lost 4 of 5, with the one win being a coin flip victory over the terrible Spurs. Takes some of the sting out of a lousy Celtics loss.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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It's really working the extreme margins, but I've always liked Xavier Tillman, and until this year, he's always been around .14 ws/48. Not sure what happened or why he can't put the ball in the hoop now (.375 from the field...yikes...and a free throw percentage that's even lower than that...double yikes), but he'd be attractive to someone as a depth big with playoff experience (I thought he really stepped up vs the Lakers in the first round last year).
 

PedroKsBambino

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Maybe, but do they have that much to dump? Everyone important is signed for next year, their stars are just hitting their primes (Ja and JJJ will be 25, Bane will be 26) and some key role players should still be effective (Kenard will be 28, Smart will be 30, Adams will somehow still be just 31). If they play it right this could be their last chance to grab a high lottery pick with the Ja/JJJ/Bane group, but I don't know that they have much worth shipping out that they wouldn't rather just keep for next year.

Bucks lose to the Jazz in Milwaukee, by 16. They've lost 4 of 5, with the one win being a coin flip victory over the terrible Spurs. Takes some of the sting out of a lousy Celtics loss.
Yeah, I meant assets meaning Konchar, possibly Marcus, Kennard. I didn’t mean a full blow-up. I agree they still have young core all set and shouldn’t touch that
 

Kliq

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Maybe, but do they have that much to dump? Everyone important is signed for next year, their stars are just hitting their primes (Ja and JJJ will be 25, Bane will be 26) and some key role players should still be effective (Kenard will be 28, Smart will be 30, Adams will somehow still be just 31). If they play it right this could be their last chance to grab a high lottery pick with the Ja/JJJ/Bane group, but I don't know that they have much worth shipping out that they wouldn't rather just keep for next year.

Bucks lose to the Jazz in Milwaukee, by 16. They've lost 4 of 5, with the one win being a coin flip victory over the terrible Spurs. Takes some of the sting out of a lousy Celtics loss.
I also think it's really hard to integrate a young player, even a very good one, into a veteran core that is ready to win now. Look at how difficult it has been for Golden State to do that with some highly-touted picks. Even if they say, snag the #5 overall pick in next years draft, the chances of that player being a really good player in the following year is pretty low. Plus, you kind of have to let them play through growing pains and get them integrated into the team.
 

Euclis20

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I also think it's really hard to integrate a young player, even a very good one, into a veteran core that is ready to win now. Look at how difficult it has been for Golden State to do that with some highly-touted picks. Even if they say, snag the #5 overall pick in next years draft, the chances of that player being a really good player in the following year is pretty low. Plus, you kind of have to let them play through growing pains and get them integrated into the team.
I don't disagree (although just because GS blew the Wiseman pick and are unable to give young guys playing time doesn't mean every team would have the same problem), but even if they don't like the player, that could end up being a decent asset to upgrade a key position. There is definitely a silver lining here when if Ja had stayed healthy, there was a real possibility of them either winning 35ish games and missing the playoffs for like the 11th pick.
 

The Raccoon

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The other former Celtic guard from last year, Brogdon, seems like a much better fit for NY's current roster.
Some Podcast (from The Athletic I think) discussed the NYK needs after the OG trade: Creator of the bench, should be able to play next to Randle and/or Brunson, outside shooting, ... and while they never mentioned him by name, I also immediately thought of Brogdon.
Can't imagine, that Portland actually wants to keep him, this team is not contending any time soon...
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, if they added Brogdon and found a legit backup center with Robinson out (Drummond?) and didn't lose any more guys for the season, very interesting rotation.

Hartenstein/Randle/OG/Dante D/Brunson
Brogdon/Hart/Drummond/Grimes

Brogdon will get a shot to impress in MSG tonight, but he is a really good fit on paper.
 

benhogan

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Yeah, if they added Brogdon and found a legit backup center with Robinson out (Drummond?) and didn't lose any more guys for the season, very interesting rotation.

Hartenstein/Randle/OG/Dante D/Brunson
Brogdon/Hart/Drummond/Grimes

Brogdon will get a shot to impress in MSG tonight, but he is a really good fit on paper.
Brogdon shouldn't cost any more than two decent 2nds + Fournier.
Olynyk may come available (although the Jazz are playing better)

Think the Knicks could aim higher:
Something like Fournier + MRob + picks for Murray/Capela from the fading Hawks would be interesting.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Brogdon shouldn't cost any more than two decent 2nds + Fournier.
Olynyk may come available (although the Jazz are playing better)

Think the Knicks could aim higher:
Something like Fournier + MRob + picks for Murray/Capela from the fading Hawks would be interesting.
Hawks are hard to figure, but I'd be surprised if they deal Murray for that little - they paid a ton for him (three firsts), he's a valuable if imperfect asset, and while the Knicks have a lot of picks they are all 'meh' individually. If I'm the Hawks I want at least one prime asset if I deal him - illustratively, they reportedly asked Lakers for Reaves. Guess it all depends how many picks - and how eager they are to move him, and whether they are (as I suspect) trying the mid-rebuild not the tank where lots of picks are more valuable.

It is very easy to see Brogdon and Knicks matching up, only thing being that he's a pretty easy fit for Lakers and others as well.
 

BigSoxFan

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Damn. Marcus would be sorta perfect on the Knicks playing 25 intense minutes. They’re already a pain to play. In a series with Marcus, Hart, Og, they could really guard the perimeter.
Yeah, Brogdon is probably a better need fit but Smart on the Knicks just kind of feels right given the team’s identity. Would make them a real pain in the ass.
 

the moops

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Memphis isn't trading Marcus Smart. They are bad enough to get a good pick this year without having to trade away any of their pieces. They will want to compete next year, and I can't imagine they have staryed from their thinking that they want Ja/Smart/Bane as their 1-3.
 

lovegtm

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Brogdon is a good player, who fits well on tons of teams. He has some defensive issues, but lots of these target teams for him have elite defenders to cover mistakes.

People really went sour on him after his arm was messed up vs Miami, but he's shooting the 3 and playmaking well this year.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Yeah, Brogdon is probably a better need fit but Smart on the Knicks just kind of feels right given the team’s identity. Would make them a real pain in the ass.
I think only certain players theive with Thibs and I’d be a little skeptical of Brogdon’s culture fit, personally. Seems a little too thoughtful. Thibs wants you to run through a wall, no questions asked.
 

lovegtm

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Memphis isn't trading Marcus Smart. They are bad enough to get a good pick this year without having to trade away any of their pieces. They will want to compete next year, and I can't imagine they have staryed from their thinking that they want Ja/Smart/Bane as their 1-3.
Yeah, I don't see why this changes things. They still want Smart next year next to Ja, and they'll be bad enough without Ja to get a decent pick regardless.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Memphis might trade some of their rotational pieces depending on the market. Kennard, Konchar (lots of AI NBA blog posts fit his contract into the Grant TPE) or Biyombo are the sorts of names that they might look at moving.

As for Memphis I agree with the view that they consider Smart a long term asset.
 

benhogan

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Brogdon is a good player, who fits well on tons of teams. He has some defensive issues, but lots of these target teams for him have elite defenders to cover mistakes.

People really went sour on him after his arm was messed up vs Miami, but he's shooting the 3 and playmaking well this year.
Going bad on Brogdon was a very odd take that a bunch of folks took.

He fit in seamlessly with Boston, shot 44% from 3, & won 6th Man of the Year. He also was excellent in the Philly series & exceeded expectations until getting injured

MB seemed cranky with Brad after the LAC failed trade, so maybe that was the turn-off?

Hawks are hard to figure, but I'd be surprised if they deal Murray for that little - they paid a ton for him (three firsts), he's a valuable if imperfect asset, and while the Knicks have a lot of picks they are all 'meh' individually. If I'm the Hawks I want at least one prime asset if I deal him - illustratively, they reportedly asked Lakers for Reaves. Guess it all depends how many picks - and how eager they are to move him, and whether they are (as I suspect) trying the mid-rebuild not the tank where lots of picks are more valuable.

It is very easy to see Brogdon and Knicks matching up, only thing being that he's a pretty easy fit for Lakers and others as well.
Brogdon fits in great with "fill in the playoff contender name". He'll be demand. PDX should cash in before he ends up like TL this season.

Agreed, ATL is really hard to figure out since the owners' kid has a say in player decisions. They overpaid for Murray and may want a similar return. The Knicks have their picks + a bunch of fake Firsts that they should start to move for present-value talent.

Maybe the Hawks would consider a 25-year-old MRob as an uptick from 29-year-old Capela?
ATL should be adding as much young rim defense around Trae Young as possible.

The Knicks front office has been doing a good job the last couple of years, so if they turned over ATL I wouldn't be shocked.
 

PedroKsBambino

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All fair, and really....who knows with Atlanta?

If I were them, I'd want onyeka okongwu to be getting more of the big minutes, and so while Robinson is different and a very interesting asset, he's a part-time for them.

To your initial suggestion, there are some murmurs Hawks are fairly eager to move on from Murray....and the more true that is, the more the Knicks potpurri of picks and interesting (but imperfect) assets like Robinson and Grimes might still be enough.
 

cheech13

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Brogdon shouldn't cost any more than two decent 2nds + Fournier.
Olynyk may come available (although the Jazz are playing better)

Think the Knicks could aim higher:
Something like Fournier + MRob + picks for Murray/Capela from the fading Hawks would be interesting.
The Blazers traded Gary Payton II last deadline for five 2nd round picks, but the far superior Brogdon is only worth two? Even totally cooked Jae Crowder snagged four 2nd rounders. I’d be very surprised if they didn’t get a late first for him.
 

benhogan

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The Blazers traded Gary Payton II last deadline for five 2nd round picks, but the far superior Brogdon is only worth two? Even totally cooked Jae Crowder snagged four 2nd rounders. I’d be very surprised if they didn’t get a late first for him.
Sure a late First or a couple of decent 2nds, pretty much the same value (especially in a weak 2024 Draft)

As we saw with Boston on draft day, Brad traded a late First (#25) for a couple of 2nds (#31++) then he continued to spin those 2nds for more 2nds to fill the cupboards. Think he ended up with 5 future 2nds & Walsh.

LAC offered a late first + filler for Brogdon this summer (& Boston accepted). Maybe a late First is in play.

PDX would have been better served if they had just spun MB/TL when they got them & kept on collecting picks from the original Dame trade.

This suggestion was met with scorn o_O
this would make my stomach sink but who says NO to

TimeLord + Brogdon for
Lowry + Jaquez + long-dated pick swap or protected 1st
PDX probably likes what Brogdon brings to the locker room, which seems to be a fan-favorite use of assets.

Plus I was assured PDX would have no interest in 23-year-old rookies.
 

benhogan

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Since we're discussing 2nd round picks and their value. They have changed from previous seasons due to the new CBA. I'm leaning on the work Brad did this past draft when comparing multiple Seconds vs. late Firsts.

The new CBA introduced the second-round pick exception, which will give teams the ability to have more options to sign those players drafted in the second round.

The exception allows teams to sign second-round picks to a three-year deal, with a first-year salary worth up to the minimum for a player with one year of service, or a four-year deal, with a first-year salary worth up to the minimum for a player with two years of service.

The contracts each contain a team option for the final year.

The second-round pick exception will give teams the opportunity to save some of their non-taxpayer midlevel exception.

3-year contract
Y1- $1.8M
Y2- $1.9M
Y3- $2.2M (Team)

4-year contract
Y1- $2M
Y2- $2.1M
Y3- $2.2M
Y4- $2.4M (Team)

The exception does not come out of the $7.7M room, $12.4M non-tax or $5M tax midlevel.
 

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Aug 3, 2004
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Imaginationland
View: https://twitter.com/TheDunkCentral/status/1744764643606761915?s=20


I don't hate this for Atlanta or Toronto. Siakam is the kind of + defensive player that needs to be around Young, and the Young/Murray partnership hasn't exactly been great. For Toronto, I don't think the fit is perfect (Murray hasn't played well next to Young, how's he gonna look starting next to Quickley), but replacing a soon to be free agent with a borderline all-star signed at reasonable money through 2027 is a pretty good idea for a team that will always have trouble attracting free agents.