If the Suns lose this series, it will be solely because PG didn't play, and as a result, Russ decided he needed to do too much.
And just like that, back to back turnovers for Russ.
And just like that, back to back turnovers for Russ.
2023 NBA Playoffs
- Thread starter BaseballJones
- Start date
Suns had 36 points halfway through the second quarter, then caught fire and finished with 123. When they're hitting their jumpers, they are the team that everyone fears.
Westbrook kind of had the reverse of game 1. Very good overall stats, but just melted down the stretch and salted away any chance they had of winning it with back to back bad passes (clippers were down 8 with the ball and 3 minutes left and then had 3 straight turnovers, ending the game).
View: https://twitter.com/FlyByKnite/status/1648545216817770504
You can take all the midrange 2s you want if you can hit 72% of them
You can take all the midrange 2s you want if you can hit 72% of them
Green being suspended for game 3 almost makes it feel like a must win for the Kings, as much as it can be for a team up 2-0. We know as well as anyone how difficult it can be to knock off the defending champs (Milwaukee last year and Toronto in the bubble) even when you have the superior team. GS is very good at home, and with a win in game 3 (without Draymond), it's a series.
Where can one find plus/minus for different players? Almost feel like the Warriors could be better with out the distraction of Draymond., but don't know if that has been true or not this year?
How is "occasionally" defined here?
I don't believe for a second that Green is cerebral in how he uses his outbursts. He's an enabled toddler in a man's body that has never learned (or had to) control his temper. He seems to go with his base instinct of trying to hurt other people on the court whenever things get too tough to actually just play straight up like almost everyone else in the NBA has learned to do while growing up.
He gets away with it because he does it so often that others get used to it and start asking themselves.. 'was that as bad as he usually is' in order to determine which of his fouls/ outbursts/ attempts to injure other players are worthy of technical fouls when compared to his prior behavior.
As crazy as this sounds, this is the Kings G7 right here in G3! If both teams hold serve and there is a G7 in Sacramento I would not feel comfortable with the unproven Kings beating Golden State.
The advantage Sacramento has over the Warriors is with their speed, pace and downhill attack. They MUST push, push, push tempo as they did in G1 and G2 to take advantage of these edges. If they get caught in a halfcourt game or relying on secondary breaks this series will be 2-1 and seemingly destined for a G7. Make the game fast, make it crazy fast, and utilize Fox/Monk off the dribble attacking the basket in transition. That’s their path.
The problem for the Suns is that if you have merely a really good midrange game, and shoot 15-29, you are in a dogfight. If you have the inevitable 11-29 game, you lose to a good team by 15.
It's hard to make the math work if your midrangers don't also generate lots of 3s and FTs.
Why did they need the second paragraph in that statement? Weird comms approach. You don't need to both sides a suspension...
If it's a must-win for anyone, it's a must-win for GSW and I expect G3 to be GSW's best game. Too much champion pedigree.
That being said, unless G3 forces Kerr to find something he hasn't used on G1 or G2, even if GSW wins G3, I could very easily see SAC winning G4. SAC's defense has been better on the road all year; SAC really hasn't had a good shooting game yet; and as far as I cantell, GSW hasn't made any adjustments to shift how the series is being played.
Of course what do I know - I was pretty convinced the Cs were a better team after 2 games of the Finals last year!
Having two games in hand helps a lot vs. being 1-1.
And who knows what could have been, had the league officiated Draymond normally last Finals...he will know he's on an extremely tight leash from here on out.
Playing Looney as the only big is going to be really tough. He just can't really keep up with the pace. Several times a game he's the last guy down the court and Sac is playing 5 on 4 and GSW has no rim protection for a bit. The DHO actions with Sabonis (assuming Sabonis plays) has Looney sagged back so far into the paint that anyone coming off that action will have wide open shots or a long runway to explode into the paint.
GSW is going to have to outscore them, and while they can, it's an iffier proposition than they should be comfortable with already down 0-2. They have little margin for error left in the series, and without Draymond, there will be little margin for error in the game. If they have a bad shooting night, their season is probably over.
But they got Steph, so...
What are the possible small ball lineups GSW could go to? Would they play Kuminga at center? So Curry, Klay, Kuminga, Wiggins, GP3? Could Kuminga handle Sabonis? (Edit: Kuminga probably provides little to no rim protection, and Fox/Monk are kinda blowing by guys so...)
GSW is going to have to outscore them, and while they can, it's an iffier proposition than they should be comfortable with already down 0-2. They have little margin for error left in the series, and without Draymond, there will be little margin for error in the game. If they have a bad shooting night, their season is probably over.
But they got Steph, so...
What are the possible small ball lineups GSW could go to? Would they play Kuminga at center? So Curry, Klay, Kuminga, Wiggins, GP3? Could Kuminga handle Sabonis? (Edit: Kuminga probably provides little to no rim protection, and Fox/Monk are kinda blowing by guys so...)
This is kind of where I am. How on earth is the pressure not on GSW here to dig deep and find a way to keep this from going to 3-0 without your best defender? I feel like some posters are overthinking this.
Basketball reference has it, or at least net rating per 100 possessions:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greendr01/on-off/2023
The Warriors were a massive +13.1 when Draymond was on the court (scoring almost 6 more points per 100 possessions, and allowing over 7 fewer points per 100 possessions). He's definitely still a positive player for them, this is a big loss.
I probably am. Typically in these situations (higher seed goes up 2-0 at home), the lower seed wins game 3 at home, then game 4 determines whether it's going to be a real series or not. I feel that if GS wins game 3 without Draymond, they'll have game 4 in the bag with his return. Then all of a sudden it's a best of 3, and even with home court the Kings will start to feel the pressure as the team with the least experience in the playoffs going up against the team with most. It may not make any sense at all, but I think that the Warriors have a much better chance at winning game 4 with Draymond missing game 3, making game 3 all the more important for Sac.
No I get the logic, I just don’t if you’re Kerr you’re thinking the pressure is all on the team who’s up 2-0. Game 3 is 100% a must win for GSW.
My guess is that is their plan, to play small more (e.g. whenever Looney sits) and try to match pace with Kings, making it easier to spread them on offense in half-court. The half court D in those minutes will depend on great individual play vs Kings both on the perimeter and vs Sabonis down low, and that's the gamble for them. But I don't see a way for them to defend the rim without Green regardless. If you aim to go small whenever Sabonis leaves court it is easier to see that working - you'll give up some layups to Monk/Fox/etc. but you'll also be able to push pace and get some looks the other way. You might even dust off a Poole-party lineup with Wiggins or Kuminga at 5?
Losing Draymond is a huge loss for GS. His help-defense and rim protection were the only things stopping the Kings from forming a lay-up line, and without him GS only has Looney as a playable big. If Looney gets in any type of foul trouble (which he did in G2) it's going to be so easy for Sacramento to score.
The thing about the series is that while the games have been close, the fundamental truth appears to be that GS just cannot stop Fox/Monk from getting to the basket. It's just too easy for Sacramento's guards to penetrate and GS doesn't seem to have the personnel to stop that. Unless they have some amazing new scheme defensively to stop that, it's hard to see them winning the series. GS might win a few games if Curry/Klay go nuclear, but over the course of the series it's hard to see GS slowing down Sacramento's offense enough to win four out of the next five games.
The thing about the series is that while the games have been close, the fundamental truth appears to be that GS just cannot stop Fox/Monk from getting to the basket. It's just too easy for Sacramento's guards to penetrate and GS doesn't seem to have the personnel to stop that. Unless they have some amazing new scheme defensively to stop that, it's hard to see them winning the series. GS might win a few games if Curry/Klay go nuclear, but over the course of the series it's hard to see GS slowing down Sacramento's offense enough to win four out of the next five games.
Curry just had to be regular Curry and they would have won game two.. he was awful.
edit: or he was defended very well
Who does the board think is going to make it out of the West?
I’ve been thoroughly unimpressed with the Suns and I don’t think KD and CP3 can hold up the entire playoffs with Monty playing them the types of minutes he has.
Gun to my head I tnink I have to go Denver. They have a real home court advantage, it doesn’t look like any of the teams they are going to play are going to be able to go 5 out and pull Jokic away from the basket.,
I’ve been thoroughly unimpressed with the Suns and I don’t think KD and CP3 can hold up the entire playoffs with Monty playing them the types of minutes he has.
Gun to my head I tnink I have to go Denver. They have a real home court advantage, it doesn’t look like any of the teams they are going to play are going to be able to go 5 out and pull Jokic away from the basket.,
I'm going with the Lakers. 16-6 over their last 22 games. They are playing the best they have all season and if they can stay healthy they can beat any of the teams in the west in a seven game series. I would love a Lakers-Celtics finals.
Davion is such an underrated piece to their puzzle. He’s their one lockdown perimeter defender so Fox, Monk and Huerter don’t have to worry about taking on extra responsibilities. That’s another secret about this Kings team too….looking at raw numbers everyone assumes they don’t defend but that’s far from true. It’s the pace which they play that distorts it. Huerter is very underrated on that end of the floor too….despite not “looking” the part.
I hadn't watched the Kings too much during the year, and thought of Davion as a just an undersized, empty scoring calories guard....boy was I wrong. His intensity and physicality shocked me when I watched these two games.
If I didn’t watch the play-in, I’d be right there with you. I know its just one game but I can’t shake how terribly they looked against Minnesota
Kuminga played just under 4 minutes in G2. I think he was yanked because he looked lost on defense. I can't imagine guarding Sabonis very well.
GSW does have a problem. I know they tried JM Green for a bit and that didn't seem to work out either.
Poole's ankle better get better if they are going to play a Poole-Party lineup. He wasn't moving well at all and the stats reflected that.
You don't remember "Off Night" from the epic summer league battle between him and Pritchard? My son says he plays like a "mini-Marcus Smart." He's not wrong.
Yeah, if there are 10 guards in the entire league who are quick enough to credibly defend Curry, Fox is absolutely top or near-top of the list, and Mitchell might be on that list too. The Kings are a terrible matchup for Curry in that respect, whereas he absolutely feasted on Boston's beefier but slower guards last June.
The Dubs are shooting a lot better than Sacramento, but they're turning it over, they can't rebound, and they're not getting to the line:
Sabonis not having Green on him next game is going to make that a lot worse.
Adjusted for pace they have the 24th best defense in the NBA (points per 100 possessions).
Sabonis is definitely going to feast on a Draymond-less Warriors team
edit: I could be convinced that Sabonis has been goading Draymond to do exactly what he did.
Domantas Sabonis has a sternum contusion and is questionable for Game 3 vs. Warriors
View: https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1648547058637320193?s=20
I think there is zero chance he doesn't play
They say "last thing anyone expected is Draymond to be suspended" lol what planet are y'all on?
Subscribe me to this Eric Green’s newsletter. He’s like a whiny West Coast Jerry Thornton.
‘An unfortunate incident’ is Kissinger-like framing. And my brain melted when they went off on Joe Dumars.
I have the adjustments rated much differently than that. I’m on the road but had they 13-14 or somewhere in there. They are not in the same stratosphere as the Rockets, Blazers, Hornets, Hawks, etc etc
I think it's more that the Kings defense is a perfect match for the Warriors strengths. The Kings go up against AD/Lakers; Jokic/Nuggets; KD/Suns and they'll both get killed down low but, as well, those teams will have the rim protection to better slow Fox and Monk going to the hoop.
They also flashed W-L record for GS with/without Green -- I don't recall the numbers but it was a massive difference.
Good catch with your edit. Curry was fine, but he really seemed only to have Klay to pass to ,which meant the Kings could super-extend their offense without worrying either about a big man down low or greater cutters to the hoop.
The amount of pearl clutching by the National media acting like Draymond is some sort of victim with this suspension is honestly astonishing.
I just watched a clip of JJ Redick, who I normally think is very smart and reasonable with his analysis, on First Take and Jesus Christ. He painted a picture of Draymond as if he’s some innocent bystander who Sabonis ran over with his car; then complained about the officiating as a whole saying it’s severely tilted in the Kings favor.
I really couldn’t believe what I heard
I just watched a clip of JJ Redick, who I normally think is very smart and reasonable with his analysis, on First Take and Jesus Christ. He painted a picture of Draymond as if he’s some innocent bystander who Sabonis ran over with his car; then complained about the officiating as a whole saying it’s severely tilted in the Kings favor.
I really couldn’t believe what I heard
I am not reading every post in this thread and I don't mean this to simply address this post, because there seem to be a lot, and i feel like no one is mentioning what we know draymond is like behind closed doors.
I was listening to the dunc’d on podcast. They are big GSW fanboys and were saying that they would be surprised if he was suspended. Meanwhile everyone else was wondering “How many games?” The GSW fandom is a big echo chamber of wishful thinking.
I saw an ESPN clip this morning from Domonique Foxworth where he called this a "dangerous precedent" because suspensions are normally reserved for punches (I guess I missed the punch that Dillon Brooks threw last year?), leaving the bench, or meeting the flagrant limit. I guess my counter to that would be: how often do we see one player stomp another? Maybe we don't see suspensions over plays like this more frequently...because players generally aren't stomping on each other?
Historically he's also been an important facilitator on offense, primarily through his passing/screening/general mind-meld with Steph, in particular. These numbers are from last year but:
Yeah I don't know that I've ever seen one player step on another player with their entire body weight and use their chest as leverage to jump off of them.
I like how all the criticism of this decision starts off describing the dirty plays that the Kings have had against Draymond so far in the series....all things that Draymond has been doing to opponents for a full decade to get them off their game. I don't recall any of those other guys reacting the way Green did. Of course his history is taken into account with this decision, as are his actions immediately after (yelling and riling up the crowd, being totally unapologetic in the post game press conference). The sooner he's out of the league, the better.
*edit - and kudos to Mike Brown for getting his team prepared to not give an inch to Draymond.