2024 Mock Drafts are more fun than this boring, awful Patriots Team
- Thread starter Rico Guapo
- Start date
Did somebody mention a huge Tampa mistake? I guess we're spending all of our money this offseason keeping Caleb alive, and then loading up on offense in the 2025 draft.
For whatever reason, it is wildly overvaluing that #34 pick. In a draft I posted earlier I got Tennessee's 1/2/3 next year plus #108 in this draft. From the Pats' perspective I'd do either that trade or the one right above in a heartbeat. This isnt a one year rebuild.
So looking at past value, the 34 has been traded for:
2022- 53 and 59
2017- 35 and 187
It actually got traded a bunch of times between then either as part of a first round moveup or as a future pick (ie teams traded future picks but then were terrible).
2022- 53 and 59
2017- 35 and 187
It actually got traded a bunch of times between then either as part of a first round moveup or as a future pick (ie teams traded future picks but then were terrible).
Looks like PFN just updated at least some of their player rankings. No more snagging Darius Robinson with a 3rd, and probably not getting Powers-Johnson with the 2nd.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-nfl-mock-draft-patriots-acquire-justin-fields-pair-him-with-marvin-harrison-jr-giants-trade-up-for-qb/amp/
More than I would pay for Fields and Maye (my preference) was still on the board at #3, but better than some of the other trade scenarios I've seen. Still leaves a big gap at OT and no second rounder to help fill it.
More than I would pay for Fields and Maye (my preference) was still on the board at #3, but better than some of the other trade scenarios I've seen. Still leaves a big gap at OT and no second rounder to help fill it.
Not a big Fields trade guy, but that value looks decent. Of course if I do that no chance I draft Harrison, I could get a haul for the Drake Maye pick... (say 6, a 1st, and 37 or 49? OR 8, 43 future 1st, plus?)
If you came out of this draft with Fields, a top 10 pick (Alt, Odunze, Nabers, Bowers, Fashanu, etc.), two other top 50 picks plus a future 1st from a mediocre team?.... yeah you could probably sell me on that. I'd still take a QB at 3.
Agreed. If, like in that scenario, the NYG want to trade up for Maye then you could exact a healthy price. I would definitely take Nabers/Odunze/Alt plus premium picks over MHJ. Could even trade back multiple times. First to Arizona for MHJ, then #4 to the QB-hungry team.
IMO, based on current roster needs and 2024 talent pool (which lines up so well, given N.E.'s top needs), the Patriots draft picks for days one and two should go this way,:
Round 1: QB
Round 2: OT
Round 3: WR
Period. End of story. Not even period. Exclamation point. The team is so dreadful, so devoid of playmakers and so lucky to have this draft line up so well with the requirements of this rebuild. Don't overthink. Draft this exact way, ten times out of ten.
Round 1: QB
Round 2: OT
Round 3: WR
Period. End of story. Not even period. Exclamation point. The team is so dreadful, so devoid of playmakers and so lucky to have this draft line up so well with the requirements of this rebuild. Don't overthink. Draft this exact way, ten times out of ten.
I think that is what I like as well, but.... There is a chance you have a much better WR than OT at 34. If say Brian Thomas is there at 34 and your best LT is say... Patrick Paul... I probably take Thomas then try to trade up from 68. It depends a bit who if anyone falls.
Apologies if this has been discussed but what would CHI pay to move from 9 to 3 to pair MHJ with Williams?
Or is it not worth it to them with Nabers and Odunze lurking?
Or is it not worth it to them with Nabers and Odunze lurking?
Yes, fair point. I think it's unlikely Thomas falls all the way to #34, but if the team can trade up from 68 or whatever it is to get Paul or another OT of similar quality, I'd def be into that idea.
Yeah, I just used him as an example. Thing is with 4+ QBs and all the the linemen, edges, cbs etc. Some position is going to have fallers. I hope it's OT, but could be WR (worst case is defense)
Bring in Jacoby or Jimmy G, let JJ get a feel for the game before throwing him in. Send Mac packing for a 2025 anything pick.
Attachments
Any mockdraft tool that let's me trade down to the 6th pick and end up with this draft isn't worth taking seriously.
Also, decided to see how much I could game the system. Only used 2024 draft picks and made some trades. Pretty much couldn't have gone better.
Trades are broken on basically all of them.
NMDD is probably the best of the bunch in terms or rankings, they'll occasionally throw an outlier with Caleb falling or one of the other QBs, because the AI has to have some kind of randomization algorithm and they don't want to lock players to picks. Honestly the Caleb is the only particularly bad one there, McConkey is pretty likely to be there at 34, and Sumaitia is one of a big group of high upside but raw or flawed tackles that probably go somewhere between like 25 and 40 so not crazy for him to be there either.
Yeah, it was really just the Caleb pick. I did about a dozen drafts and Williams only went 1st once.
Never going to happen but it was fun to dream. Wilson and Spann-Ford would be fun to see line up next to each other.
Anyone ever see an offer like this? Sure, I'll drop back one spot in the 6th in exchange for... dropping back a bunch more spots in the 7th?
Ok, listen. I know. This isn't EVER going to happen, but it would sure be interesting in 2025 if it did:
- 11.
Brock Bowers
TE Georgia - 34.
Michael Penix Jr.
QB Washington - 67.
Blake Fisher
OT Notre Dame - 138.
Brenden Rice
WR USC - 182.
Christian Jones
OT Texas - 190.
Josh Proctor
S Ohio State
- 2025 ATL 1st
- 2025 MIN 1st
- 2025 TB 1st
- 2025 DET 3rd
- 2025 WAS 3rd
This one’s just plain silliness, I thought this trade engine was better but now I have no idea.
Rebuilt many areas of need, and stockpiled 2025 assets to make trades for impact players now or draft Noah’s arc.
Rebuilt many areas of need, and stockpiled 2025 assets to make trades for impact players now or draft Noah’s arc.
Last mocks before the combine changes a bunch of rankings:
Went with 2 on each site, 1 where I traded down, one where I took BQBA.
PFN:
IGNORE THE FUTURE PICKS... because the trade engine is so bad I made the trades based on current picks offerred, this would almost certainly have a premium future pick from ATL (1st or maybe 2nd and 3rd) based on value. Analysis... huge Oline shoreup with Fuaga as LT of the future and Barton as a G/T hybrid, couple interesting WRs, a 2nd stud DL and a promising pass-rusher, some secondary help and fliers at RB/TE.
QB, OT, WR got a solid edge prospect too, less quantity, but if the QB hits nothing else matters.
NMDD
Ended up with way too many picks, so basically throw out the Milton/Davis/Carter picks they're there because the trade offers were dumb. Also would have a future Raiders pick from the 1st trade down, probably a 1st.
Really interesting fall, gambled on Bowers early, took Fautanu who probably ends up as a G but has some RT potential, Paul is raw but has LT potential, couple WAS WRs, an Edge, and then I pulled the trigger on Rattler in the 4th, I think that's the spot to take a QB if you don't go one at 3, probably won't work out, but the risk reward feels right.
Apparently Tyler Hughes gave me great scouting reports since he gets his two guys on his new WR corps.
Different QB was there at 3, same OT, new WR at 68, Colson feels like a steal.
Went with 2 on each site, 1 where I traded down, one where I took BQBA.
PFN:
IGNORE THE FUTURE PICKS... because the trade engine is so bad I made the trades based on current picks offerred, this would almost certainly have a premium future pick from ATL (1st or maybe 2nd and 3rd) based on value. Analysis... huge Oline shoreup with Fuaga as LT of the future and Barton as a G/T hybrid, couple interesting WRs, a 2nd stud DL and a promising pass-rusher, some secondary help and fliers at RB/TE.
QB, OT, WR got a solid edge prospect too, less quantity, but if the QB hits nothing else matters.
NMDD
Ended up with way too many picks, so basically throw out the Milton/Davis/Carter picks they're there because the trade offers were dumb. Also would have a future Raiders pick from the 1st trade down, probably a 1st.
Really interesting fall, gambled on Bowers early, took Fautanu who probably ends up as a G but has some RT potential, Paul is raw but has LT potential, couple WAS WRs, an Edge, and then I pulled the trigger on Rattler in the 4th, I think that's the spot to take a QB if you don't go one at 3, probably won't work out, but the risk reward feels right.
Apparently Tyler Hughes gave me great scouting reports since he gets his two guys on his new WR corps.
Different QB was there at 3, same OT, new WR at 68, Colson feels like a steal.
Holy fuck those are good drafts. That first draft with Bowers at the top--if it happened, I think that the Pats are a playoff team next year with a placeholder QB. The offensive talent there, both skill and line, is mindblowing.
PFN, Caleb fell to #3, and I traded down from 34 twice in the second and up later to maximize top-100/top-150 picks (no future picks exchanged)
You've taken Daniels at 3. You have to accept this, correct? Even if it means not getting a half decent tackle prospect this year?
Had lots of fun with this one. Should be able to find a ton of starters out of this haul and the ammunition for 2025/2026 for the QB to plug in.
Borderline. It's just about neutral value by the charts. It would depend who was on the board to me, but if one of the tackles I like is on the board... I decline. Who knows where that pick will be, and this is a better than normal class at the top of the 2nd (Covid extra years are coming to an end) I'd also like to get my OT and QB lined up since both are likely to be much better year 2.
Step by step through the PFN simulator.
Pick 3 comes up, and I'm offered the #7 and #38 for #3 by Tennessee. Williams and Maye are off the board, and I have to believe that Ten wants Daniels with the #7. But that's a good haul for dropping down three spots, even though it means I'm getting cute already with the draft and ending up missing out on my desired QB. Screw it. I accept the deal.
To my surprise, Ten takes Harrison, and Nabers and Alt follow. I'm one pick away, but Atlanta takes Daniels ahead of me. Dang. And now as #7 shows up, I get this offer from Pittsburgh: #7 and #104 for #20, #51, #84, and a 2025 2nd rounder. Meanwhile, New Orleans has offered me #14 and #45 in exchange for #7. Pit's haul is bigger, but I drop further down in the first round. I've missed out on my QB, but I wonder if McCarthy can still be there at either #14 or #20. I decide to take the New Orleans trade, because I still hope to get McCarthy.
And...of course, I am wrong. McCarthy goes #12 to Denver. So now I'm at #14 and I get another offer, this one from Washington: #14 and #107 for #36, #40, and #67. This would move me out of the first round, but it would give me #34, #36, #38, #40, #45, #67, and #68. That's 7 of the first 68 picks, even if none of them are first rounders. UGH. This is not how I wanted it to go but now that we're here, let's load up on picks. I take the Washington offer.
So here I am at #34 and it's finally time to pick. I need help everywhere, but since the top QBs and WRs are gone, let's attack OT first. I pick Jordan Morgan of Arizona. Then at #36 I take Xavier Worthy, receiver, out of Texas. Now comes pick #38, and I still want a QB, and Penix is on the board. But I'm offered this deal from Seattle: #38, #182 for #76, #78, and a 2025 1st round pick. Since I think without the top QB the rebuild will take longer, I might as well add the extra 2025 first rounder, so I take this deal.
Good thing for me, Penix is still available at #40, so I snag him there. Who knows. Maybe he'll be good in the NFL.
Now comes pick #45, and I get another trade offer. Cleveland offers #54 and a 2025 third rounder for #45 and #229. Sure. Why not. I get a couple of offers for the #54 and accept one from Buffalo, where I give up #54 and #190 and get back #60 and #100. With the #60 pick I take WR Roman Wilson from Michigan. So now I've got a good OT, two good receivers (though both are more slot guys, which means now I have a lot of them, including Pop Douglas), and a QB prospect that at least has a chance of being good.
I have a ton of picks coming now. At #67 I take another receiver, Devontez Walker out of UNC. Now there's finally a true big, fast, outside WR. Still a lot of picks and a lot of work to do. At #68, I take OT Kiran Amenadjie from Yale, who is huge (6'5", 321 pounds) and is an absolute mauler. Has an injury but should be good to go by summer.
Now we come to #76, and I get an offer from Cincinnati. I give up #76 and my 2025 7th from Tennessee and I receive #80 and Cincy's fourth rounder in 2025. Easy yes on that offer. With #78 I triple up on tackles and grab Blake Fisher from Notre Dame, another huge guy.
At this point, I've taken seven players, all on offense: a QB, three WRs, and three OTs. I do need to address defense, tight end, and running back at some point here. When pick #80 comes up, I get another trade offer, this one from the Rams: my #80 and my 2025 7th for #83 and the Rams' 2025 fourth rounder. Another easy yes. So now I'm at pick #83, and I pick up DT T'Vondre Sweat from Texas. Pairing him with Barmore in the middle of the D-line should make the defense stout.
With #100 I take a corner, Max Melton from Rutgers, who has good size at 6'0". Finally there's a long break in the action for me until my last pick, #136, and at this point it's just best available player. I pick up TE Jared Wiley of TCU, who is huge at 6'6", can block, and is a very effective receiver.
So here's the summary:
PICKS:
#34 - OT Jordan Morgan, Arizona
#36 - WR Xavier Worthy, Texas
#40 - QB Michael Penix, Washington
#60 - WR Roman Wilson, Michigan
#67 - WR Devontez Walker, North Carolina
#68 - OT Kiran Amenadjie, Yale
#78 - OT Blake Fisher, Notre Dame
#83 - DT T'Vondre Sweat, Texas
#100 - CB Max Melton, Rutgers
#136 - TE Jared Wiley, TCU
I also added the following picks in 2025:
1st round from Seattle
3rd round from Cleveland
4th round from Cincinnati
4th round from LA Rams
On the whole, I'd be pretty happy with this. Taking three shots at WR and OT - both huge positions of need. Also getting a QB that at least has pro potential in Penix. Certainly he can throw the ball. Bummed at missing out on one of the top QBs, but I made that bed when I traded out of #3, and now I have to lie in it. Happy with the two defensive players I added, and the TE at the end is intriguing. Plus added a lot of ammo for the 2025 draft, which I think I'll need.
Pick 3 comes up, and I'm offered the #7 and #38 for #3 by Tennessee. Williams and Maye are off the board, and I have to believe that Ten wants Daniels with the #7. But that's a good haul for dropping down three spots, even though it means I'm getting cute already with the draft and ending up missing out on my desired QB. Screw it. I accept the deal.
To my surprise, Ten takes Harrison, and Nabers and Alt follow. I'm one pick away, but Atlanta takes Daniels ahead of me. Dang. And now as #7 shows up, I get this offer from Pittsburgh: #7 and #104 for #20, #51, #84, and a 2025 2nd rounder. Meanwhile, New Orleans has offered me #14 and #45 in exchange for #7. Pit's haul is bigger, but I drop further down in the first round. I've missed out on my QB, but I wonder if McCarthy can still be there at either #14 or #20. I decide to take the New Orleans trade, because I still hope to get McCarthy.
And...of course, I am wrong. McCarthy goes #12 to Denver. So now I'm at #14 and I get another offer, this one from Washington: #14 and #107 for #36, #40, and #67. This would move me out of the first round, but it would give me #34, #36, #38, #40, #45, #67, and #68. That's 7 of the first 68 picks, even if none of them are first rounders. UGH. This is not how I wanted it to go but now that we're here, let's load up on picks. I take the Washington offer.
So here I am at #34 and it's finally time to pick. I need help everywhere, but since the top QBs and WRs are gone, let's attack OT first. I pick Jordan Morgan of Arizona. Then at #36 I take Xavier Worthy, receiver, out of Texas. Now comes pick #38, and I still want a QB, and Penix is on the board. But I'm offered this deal from Seattle: #38, #182 for #76, #78, and a 2025 1st round pick. Since I think without the top QB the rebuild will take longer, I might as well add the extra 2025 first rounder, so I take this deal.
Good thing for me, Penix is still available at #40, so I snag him there. Who knows. Maybe he'll be good in the NFL.
Now comes pick #45, and I get another trade offer. Cleveland offers #54 and a 2025 third rounder for #45 and #229. Sure. Why not. I get a couple of offers for the #54 and accept one from Buffalo, where I give up #54 and #190 and get back #60 and #100. With the #60 pick I take WR Roman Wilson from Michigan. So now I've got a good OT, two good receivers (though both are more slot guys, which means now I have a lot of them, including Pop Douglas), and a QB prospect that at least has a chance of being good.
I have a ton of picks coming now. At #67 I take another receiver, Devontez Walker out of UNC. Now there's finally a true big, fast, outside WR. Still a lot of picks and a lot of work to do. At #68, I take OT Kiran Amenadjie from Yale, who is huge (6'5", 321 pounds) and is an absolute mauler. Has an injury but should be good to go by summer.
Now we come to #76, and I get an offer from Cincinnati. I give up #76 and my 2025 7th from Tennessee and I receive #80 and Cincy's fourth rounder in 2025. Easy yes on that offer. With #78 I triple up on tackles and grab Blake Fisher from Notre Dame, another huge guy.
At this point, I've taken seven players, all on offense: a QB, three WRs, and three OTs. I do need to address defense, tight end, and running back at some point here. When pick #80 comes up, I get another trade offer, this one from the Rams: my #80 and my 2025 7th for #83 and the Rams' 2025 fourth rounder. Another easy yes. So now I'm at pick #83, and I pick up DT T'Vondre Sweat from Texas. Pairing him with Barmore in the middle of the D-line should make the defense stout.
With #100 I take a corner, Max Melton from Rutgers, who has good size at 6'0". Finally there's a long break in the action for me until my last pick, #136, and at this point it's just best available player. I pick up TE Jared Wiley of TCU, who is huge at 6'6", can block, and is a very effective receiver.
So here's the summary:
PICKS:
#34 - OT Jordan Morgan, Arizona
#36 - WR Xavier Worthy, Texas
#40 - QB Michael Penix, Washington
#60 - WR Roman Wilson, Michigan
#67 - WR Devontez Walker, North Carolina
#68 - OT Kiran Amenadjie, Yale
#78 - OT Blake Fisher, Notre Dame
#83 - DT T'Vondre Sweat, Texas
#100 - CB Max Melton, Rutgers
#136 - TE Jared Wiley, TCU
I also added the following picks in 2025:
1st round from Seattle
3rd round from Cleveland
4th round from Cincinnati
4th round from LA Rams
On the whole, I'd be pretty happy with this. Taking three shots at WR and OT - both huge positions of need. Also getting a QB that at least has pro potential in Penix. Certainly he can throw the ball. Bummed at missing out on one of the top QBs, but I made that bed when I traded out of #3, and now I have to lie in it. Happy with the two defensive players I added, and the TE at the end is intriguing. Plus added a lot of ammo for the 2025 draft, which I think I'll need.
Next week is big for Penix. He is light years better than JJ McCarthy, but the medicals will be enormous for him. Setting aside those, Penix seems to have a lot of the generalities the Patriots coaching staff are said to be especially focused on for a QB. Toughness, leadership, accuracy, solid mechanics. I cannot believe how many people (here and otherwise) are suddenly on McCarthy. I get he's a relatively "clean" prospect, but he seems to be sailing up draft boards despite having been a 2nd rounder as recently as a week or two ago. No thanks on him. And, anyway, Michigan QBs never work out.
edit typos and stuff
edit typos and stuff
I don't think he's lightyears better at all as a prospect. He's much older, less mobile, and has a lot of deficiencies in his game that can't really be explained away by inexperience. McCarthy is a better prospect because he has different tools and he's young/inexperienced such that teams may think he has more potential to develop. McCarthy was above Penix in the summer, and many/most experts still had him ahead after the season (though many thought McCarthy would stay in school), aside from some of the 1 week hype train after Texas. Penix strikes me as the kind of guy who is going to kick around the league for years because of the arm and deep ball dreams, but you never really want him as your starter (ala Fitzmagic, Jameis, etc.)
Edit- in terms of draft board rise, it's a little misleading because most people don't even really have their first real mock/board of the year until around now, and the first really serious ones are post-combine. Also key to remember that QBs have inflation because it's so much more important. I've seen experts say they usually think it's around half a round or 20-25 picks, basically if you grade a guy as an early or mid 2nd type talent he's going 1st likely, if you grade him as late 2nd he'll probably go top half of the 2nd at latest, etc. This is a draft with a lot of teams that need QBs
I think that the age thing is being held against Penix too much honestly, but it's a real thing. A lot of his physical projection is done, and McCarthy's isn't. It's a lot easier to dream on the latter becoming a top-5/top-10 QB because of ceiling.
Also just experience, Penix has been playing College football for 6 seasons, that's a lot of experience and coaching so there is going to be a higher standard in terms of things like identifying coverage, reading the field, etc.
Here's a wild one I just did. Trading out of the first round for a ton of second-round picks, plus what would likely be an absolutely insane first round next year. All three of those teams could be giving up a top-five pick next year—top ten would be an almost certainty. And I didn't have to give up a single Patriots draft pick next year for any of this.
Trading/ signing a Fields/ Murray/ Cousins/ Brissett to let Rattler develop for a year or two would also be happening with a draft like this.
Trading/ signing a Fields/ Murray/ Cousins/ Brissett to let Rattler develop for a year or two would also be happening with a draft like this.
I think that my favorite mock draft results are where I skip QB*. It allows me to trade down (acquiring future picks as well as additional picks this year). With this year's picks I focus on OT and WR as priorities with CB and Edge as secondary choices.
*The assumption is that the Pats can sign a decent QB as a free agent which doesn't seem like a viable option for other positions. It would mean that we pretty much go into this coming year admitting that it's a bridge year with the hopes of drafting a QB1 next year.
*The assumption is that the Pats can sign a decent QB as a free agent which doesn't seem like a viable option for other positions. It would mean that we pretty much go into this coming year admitting that it's a bridge year with the hopes of drafting a QB1 next year.