Awesome that this comes out after BB is gone. I put 0.0001% faith in this
2024 Mock Drafts are more fun than this boring, awful Patriots Team
- Thread starter Rico Guapo
- Start date
Probably right. But if true it's interesting. He passed over or didn't move up for the dual threat guys (Jackson, Fields) recently. I'm going to take it as misdirection to get Maye to the Pats
Traded from 3 to 4 and just took the AZ 2nd. I assume Dugger leaves, big Mike is franchised and they spend FA dollars on Def. Offense just got a lot more explosive.
The Athletics AGAIN has the Patriots trading back to 8 and taking Alt. I just don't see it at all.
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Trades shake up Round 1; QBs, WRs dominate early - The Athletic
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Trades shake up Round 1; QBs, WRs dominate early - The Athletic
from the writeup seems like an easy way to get in two bits of information from the combine:
1. The exec who said Wolf wants to stockpile picks
2. Sneak in the idea that maybe Fields' market is a little soft and an early 3rd might be enough.
This far out you're going to see a lot of mocks playing around with different scenarios based on rumors/leaks/negotiating tactics.
I doubt the Patriots trade down, but if one of the top 3 teams did it's going to be the Patriots as the odds that you don't like the 3rd QB left is higher than not liking any QB other than Caleb.
And I have no doubt he'll "refine" his mocks as we get closer and then say "I got 29 of the picks correct".
Well he won't because nobody generally gets anywhere near that many exact hits, closest over a 3 year period is I think Kiper? and that was like 10-12 average.
but.... that's kind of the entire point of the exercise?
The reason you pay attention to guys like Brugler/Jeremiah/Kiper is that they have league sources. If you just want to know what they think of prospects you follow the big board. That will get tweaked with stuff like more film study, combine times, pro-days, but that is more where their analysis is. The Mocks... this far out it's really impossible to mock correctly, FA hasn't happened, team needs are unsettled, trades haven't happened. This early you're looking at what people are talking about, his general predictions, and outlines of different scenarios. After FA he'll start to really focus in on what he thinks will happen.
So for example... Kiper was one of the first guys to hear that Daniels had some teams that had him as QB2, moved him up there long before anyone else. Last year for example Brugler I think it was had Darnell Wright top 15-20 way before anyone else. That and some insight into thought processes is all mocks are really for anyway, just a fun gameplanning exercise of ... well if this then....
NFL GMs, execs mock 2024 NFL Draft’s top 10 picks: Jayden Daniels over Drake Maye? - The Athletic
Here's the Pats stuff:
They also have MHJ sliding to #6.
Here's the Pats stuff:
They also have MHJ sliding to #6.
Had another wild one. Missed out on one of the big QBs, but got a developmental and a lot good offensive pieces and picked up half the Titans 2025 draft. And they will suck next year so those picks are gonna be good ones.
I still have to stop doing these drafts though. It's keeping me from being productive.
I still have to stop doing these drafts though. It's keeping me from being productive.
Dropped down one too many times to get Daniels who obviously won't drop beyond #3 at this point, but continued to trade down until the offers dried up.
Loaded up on the OL. This would probably be overkill, but also a tremendous infusion of young talent to transform the line. Also, was able to grab some WR talent to dream on. Irving probably won't be there at the top of the 5th, but who knows. A blocking TE and a OT project to round it out.
Obviously, the one glaring omission is at QB, but I would potentially be ok punting the season with Brissett or the like before trying to find a QB next year. Admittedly, the FA QB or trade options in 2025/2026 don't look promising and the draft next year isn't projected to be QB rich, so probably just take the QB at #3. Don't overthink it. However, I would love numerous trade downs like this just to witness the collective head explosion.
Anybody know why most of the mock drafts had the Pats with two 6th rounders (usually 182 and 190 but they moved around a little, I guess because of compensatory awards?) and 8 total picks, but it seems that they actually only have seven picks and one 6th rounder? Were they assumed to get a compensatory pick that didn't get awarded?
This seems to be the "new" list on PFN.
Round 1: Pick 3
Round 2: Pick 34
Round 3: Pick 68
Round 4: Pick 103
Round 5: Pick 135
Round 6: Pick 179
Round 7: Pick 228
This seems to be the "new" list on PFN.
Round 1: Pick 3
Round 2: Pick 34
Round 3: Pick 68
Round 4: Pick 103
Round 5: Pick 135
Round 6: Pick 179
Round 7: Pick 228
I think that's the case.
Here's their official slots
View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1766264817361244338
Tried to do something "realistic" and assumed that I like McCarthy, which I'm not sure I do. But I got bored with always taking whatever QB was left at 3. Not sure though if it's actually realistic for McCarthy to slip past Denver at 12. Anyway, dropping back I got some extra 2024 and 2025 picks, which I used to come back up for Powers-Johnson and Wilson. Ended up in 2025 with one pick in each round, filling in the 6th they are currently missing with the Jax 6th, but having traded away both extra 7th rounders that they currently have.
I guess if you really want to settle for McCarthy though, you are probably rolling the dice dropping as far back as 13? Also, the Pats would have to spend most of their cap space on D in FA to do something like this in the draft.
I guess if you really want to settle for McCarthy though, you are probably rolling the dice dropping as far back as 13? Also, the Pats would have to spend most of their cap space on D in FA to do something like this in the draft.
I'd definitely be ok with this type of outcome. But is Paul at 44 and Legette at 68 realistic? Feels like both will go earlier.
I'm not sure. In the PFN model, almost always. But perhaps that model isn't realistic. Do you think Paul will go ahead of Morgan now? PFN has him ranked around 60 even though he usually goes before 50 when their model runs.
It seems like if all those OT and WR move up into the 1st and early 2nd, there might be a lot of great defensive players around in the 2nd and 3rd.
Laube at 136 might also be unrealistic too. It seems like after the combine he jumped up on most of the lists, and he frequently seems to get mocked between about 90 and 120.
Both could be there, it's within their ranges. Paul could go anywhere from 30-55 and not be a surprise.
Legette is one of the WR bunch and somebody probably falls to the early 3rd. Legette could be it given his selling point is soeed/size with but there are a lot of guys with speed and many with size too, and most of them run routes better.
NEW RULE: No one is allowed to trade out of #3 without securing a future 1st round pick as part - PART - of the compensation. Carry on.
I would say that nobody is allowed to trade out of #3 without saying who the starting QB will be on September 10th.
I don’t see anyway that QBs don’t go 1,2,3 with trades likely to occur if they aren’t the team selection. I just keep hoping for Maye to fall to the Pats and I am just fascinated with Legette and want to double up on WR plus get another TE to go with Henry. Jenkins fell way too far in this draft, just don’t see it happening.
I’d also sign Joshua Karty and look for a RB.
I’d also sign Joshua Karty and look for a RB.
Completely anecdotal but it feels like Herbert had a similar pre-draft experience. I'm consoling myself that he turned out pretty good.
I find it interesting that almost all the "Maye is bad" smoke is coming from the guys who are just getting into the draft now, and the people who do year round work all like Maye a ton (almost all more than Daniels).
I did this draft with the assumptions that the Pats have signed Jacoby Brisset or traded for Justin Fields, signed Tyron Smith, and resigned Onwenyu. Traded down twice for extra picks this year plus two extra seconds in 2025. Focused on restocking the WR, OL and CB ranks. Theo Johnson and Guerendo are physical freaks, they are not going to last that long in the draft.
9.
Malik NabersWR LSU
34.
Jordan MorganOT Arizona
50.
Cooper BeebeOG Kansas State
68.
Max MeltonCB Rutgers
97.
Jalen McMillanWR Washington
121.
Khyree JacksonCB Oregon
136.
Theo JohnsonTE Penn State
179.
Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville
192.
Caedan WallaceOT Penn State
231.
Luke ReimerLB Nebraska
2025 ATL 2nd
2025 CAR 2nd
9.
Malik NabersWR LSU
34.
Jordan MorganOT Arizona
50.
Cooper BeebeOG Kansas State
68.
Max MeltonCB Rutgers
97.
Jalen McMillanWR Washington
121.
Khyree JacksonCB Oregon
136.
Theo JohnsonTE Penn State
179.
Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville
192.
Caedan WallaceOT Penn State
231.
Luke ReimerLB Nebraska
2025 ATL 2nd
2025 CAR 2nd
If you trade down from 3 you gotta pick up a future #1. Because that #1 is what it would cost to trade up from #15 next season to get a QB of the future.I did this draft with the assumptions that the Pats have signed Jacoby Brisset or traded for Justin Fields, signed Tyron Smith, and resigned Onwenyu. Traded down twice for extra picks this year plus two extra seconds in 2025. Focused on restocking the WR, OL and CB ranks. Theo Johnson and Guerendo are physical freaks, they are not going to last that long in the draft.
9.
Malik NabersWR LSU
34.
Jordan MorganOT Arizona
50.
Cooper BeebeOG Kansas State
68.
Max MeltonCB Rutgers
97.
Jalen McMillanWR Washington
121.
Khyree JacksonCB Oregon
136.
Theo JohnsonTE Penn State
179.
Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville
192.
Caedan WallaceOT Penn State
231.
Luke ReimerLB Nebraska
2025 ATL 2nd
2025 CAR 2nd
Guerendo is a undrafted quality RB prospect who is a great athlete. Being a freaky athlete can’t compensate for no actual vision behind the LOS.I did this draft with the assumptions that the Pats have signed Jacoby Brisset or traded for Justin Fields, signed Tyron Smith, and resigned Onwenyu. Traded down twice for extra picks this year plus two extra seconds in 2025. Focused on restocking the WR, OL and CB ranks. Theo Johnson and Guerendo are physical freaks, they are not going to last that long in the draft.
9.
Malik NabersWR LSU
34.
Jordan MorganOT Arizona
50.
Cooper BeebeOG Kansas State
68.
Max MeltonCB Rutgers
97.
Jalen McMillanWR Washington
121.
Khyree JacksonCB Oregon
136.
Theo JohnsonTE Penn State
179.
Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville
192.
Caedan WallaceOT Penn State
231.
Luke ReimerLB Nebraska
2025 ATL 2nd
2025 CAR 2nd
Maybe someone takes him in round 6-7 based on his combine but he was a part time RB in college for a reason. He has almost zero ability to recognize a hole and hit it.
I'll be honest I hate it.I did this draft with the assumptions that the Pats have signed Jacoby Brisset or traded for Justin Fields, signed Tyron Smith, and resigned Onwenyu. Traded down twice for extra picks this year plus two extra seconds in 2025. Focused on restocking the WR, OL and CB ranks. Theo Johnson and Guerendo are physical freaks, they are not going to last that long in the draft.
9.
Malik NabersWR LSU
34.
Jordan MorganOT Arizona
50.
Cooper BeebeOG Kansas State
68.
Max MeltonCB Rutgers
97.
Jalen McMillanWR Washington
121.
Khyree JacksonCB Oregon
136.
Theo JohnsonTE Penn State
179.
Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville
192.
Caedan WallaceOT Penn State
231.
Luke ReimerLB Nebraska
2025 ATL 2nd
2025 CAR 2nd
You did nothing for the QB positions since you didn't get a future 1st, you signed a LT, a RG, drafted 2 more guards likely. I like Melton, I like McMillan at that pick, but overall I don't see anyone other than Nabers as a blue chip prospect, and the future picks are... meh.
Dropped back to 4 for 3 and 90. Then dropped from 34 for Denver's 1st next year plus something around 60. (Highest OT left at that time was Paul.) Used 68 and that Denver pick that was around 60, plus a 7th next year to move up for Paul. Used another of of next year's 7ths to move up a little for Laube, and then used 180 and 231 to move up for Wiley who doesn't usually drop this late. Also burned a 5th next year somewhere along the way, but can't remember where. So left with two 1sts and one 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th for next year.
I'm not sure if Jackson could actually play in Pats D so perhaps should have taken OT Fisher there as well.
I'm not sure if Jackson could actually play in Pats D so perhaps should have taken OT Fisher there as well.
Yeah that's one thing that the tools seem to usually get right. I've tried to mock trade with Arizona multiple times and they decline everything.
Traded down in the 5th and added one of the extra 2025 7ths to grab an extra sixth this year.
Obviously offensive heavy.
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Would be interesting to see how quickly this team competes with a draft like this. Holes filled mostly everywhere except a high end tackle.
In all the iterations I run I'm struggling to address both OT and WR without trading back in R1 and picking McCarthy instead of Daniels and picking up an extra R2 pick. At least on PFN, all the top OT and WR talent is gone by the end of R2 (in most cases). It's looking like a good year to be covered there and drafting for DL or DB. Some of those guys seem to drop.
It's definitely going to be interesting to see how the Pats handle OT and WR in the draft. The way I've been doing these mocks is Daniels/Maye at #3, then best OT (Suamataia/Morgan, sometimes Guyton) in R2 and best WR in R3 (Legette, R. Wilson, Pearsall). Occasionally, one of the higher ranked WR's (Coleman, A. Mitchell, McConkey) will drop in R2 so I'll switch and go WR in R2 and OT (Rosengarten, Amegadjie) in R3.
While I'd love R1 and R2 in either of the above scenarios, sometimes the options in R3 aren't very exciting. Can a Rosengarten or Amegadjie start on day 1? Can a Legette, Wilson or Pearsall make an impact in their rookie year? What happens if those guys are gone by the time R3 comes around?
The other option is going QB, OT and trading back into the middle of R2 to get a WR you like that's falling (Franklin, Corley, etc). Or QB, WR, and trade back to get into R2 to get an OT (P. Paul).
The team needs a lot of help, so I don't want to throw away picks, but those are 3 key positions they really need to address and coming out of the draft with 3 building blocks at those positions would be huge for this team.
After that, anything else is a bonus to me.
I'd also like to propose a rule for any future mock drafts: At this point I think it's safe to assume QB's go 1-2-3. So, if you're trading out of #3, in addition to getting a future 1st in return, you can't draft Daniels/Maye/Williams later in R1. I know you can run some awesome mock drafts trading from 3 to 4 to 6 to 9 and still taking Daniels and loading up on picks, but that's not happenin' on draft night. You're either taking a top 3 QB in the top 3 or those guys are off the board if you trade back.
Funny you guys are discussing that, because I just made a similar point in another thread.
It’s going to be really hard to build a decent supporting cast around a young QB without trading back from #3 and, in turn, drafting a “second-tier” QB (Penix, Nix, McCarthy).
After FA, I’m officially in the “trade back and acquire another 1st next year and hopefully another early 2nd this year” camp. Then with your R1, R2, R2 (#2) picks drafting OT, QB, WR in that order.
Then in R3 another WR.
We’re in rebuild mode and I think we’re trying to get the “blue chip” QB too soon. FA made it clear that top-shelf players aren’t really hitting the market anymore, so in many instances you’re paying second-tier talent top-tier prices by trying to do too much in FA.
We need to step back, acquire a lot of high picks, and hit on a couple of good drafts.
It’s going to be really hard to build a decent supporting cast around a young QB without trading back from #3 and, in turn, drafting a “second-tier” QB (Penix, Nix, McCarthy).
After FA, I’m officially in the “trade back and acquire another 1st next year and hopefully another early 2nd this year” camp. Then with your R1, R2, R2 (#2) picks drafting OT, QB, WR in that order.
Then in R3 another WR.
We’re in rebuild mode and I think we’re trying to get the “blue chip” QB too soon. FA made it clear that top-shelf players aren’t really hitting the market anymore, so in many instances you’re paying second-tier talent top-tier prices by trying to do too much in FA.
We need to step back, acquire a lot of high picks, and hit on a couple of good drafts.
In the trade-down scenario, it's difficult to get excited about Pennix or Nix because (a) their upside seems limited, and (b) taking them at 34 means passing up on superior talent at OL and WR. What do people think about Jordan Travis? He'd obviously have to redshirt due to his injury, but I assume Jacoby signed to be a 2024 bridge regardless. Is his upside sufficiently high that we could squint and see him as our 2025 QB?
If they trade down from 3, they absolutely have to get a # 1 from a team that has a reasonable chance of picking in the top 5 next year. I know it’s hard to predict but I would circle the NYG as a qb needy team who might struggle next year.
If I don’t have a top flight QB to watch and root for on the Pats next year, then I absolutely need a team to root against like crazy for the year with the hope that their pick may be the one that delivers us our qb the following year.
If I don’t have a top flight QB to watch and root for on the Pats next year, then I absolutely need a team to root against like crazy for the year with the hope that their pick may be the one that delivers us our qb the following year.
If the Pats are punting on a franchise QB and trading the pick to a team that takes Maye/Daniels, chances are the Pats will be drafting higher than whatever that team is so presumably their own pick (probably top 5) is likely the one they’d use for whatever prospect happens to have a Daniels-esque rise
Obviously there’s a chance Maye/Daniels go the way of Bryce Young but I don’t see too many desperate “trade the farm for pick 3” teams who - if given a halfway decent rookie - are going to be good bets for more losses than the Pats.
The Giants as you mentioned would be the only one that kind of fits that criteria.
Other than the Giants, the only teams that look like they could be as bad as the Brissett led Pats would be the Broncos, Raiders, Panthers, Commanders and Giants (and teams who starting Qb get hurt).
Washington and Carolina are obvious not trade options. Denver doesn’t have the draft capital to make a deal and are too low to drop down to probably. The Raiders (who could have a sneaky competitive season) are probably too low also
It’s really the Giants unless someone wants to come up for Harrison.
Okay, Decided to try out a hypo.
This is based on a decision to trade down with MIN (11,23, future 1st) and Wolf being high on Fields long-term and flipping a 5th and conditional future pick for him:
PFN:
The other sites haven't updated with the trade yet.
This is... honestly really good if you believe in Fields. The problem with basically every tradedown is always where does the QB come from. I have no faith in anyone outside the top 3 or MAYBE 4. Fields... I know what his floor is, and it's not bad, but unless the coaching staff thinks they can fix him... I still draft Maye or Daniels.
This is based on a decision to trade down with MIN (11,23, future 1st) and Wolf being high on Fields long-term and flipping a 5th and conditional future pick for him:
PFN:
The other sites haven't updated with the trade yet.
This is... honestly really good if you believe in Fields. The problem with basically every tradedown is always where does the QB come from. I have no faith in anyone outside the top 3 or MAYBE 4. Fields... I know what his floor is, and it's not bad, but unless the coaching staff thinks they can fix him... I still draft Maye or Daniels.
This is how the front office should be thinking about this draft (if the trades are there). If Nix doesn’t develop the way you hope, you have plenty of currency to move up in 2025 or in 2026, and that rookie QB, at that point, would have young, but experienced, receivers and an experienced o-line coming in Day 1.
Plus we still have a lot of cap space projected in 2025 and 2026, which you use for depth and “adding a piece or two,” not trying to rebuild an awful roster.
That’s when you start a rookie QB. Not in 2024 with this offense in shambles.
I like Penix more than most. Big arm, good numbers; everyone was high on him after the Texas game. He was bad against Michigan but sh*t happens. Good again according to reports at the combine. Obviously it depends on how they evaluate the top 3 qbs but if the Patriots can get a top 3 receiver by trading down a few spots, and a future top pick and a pick for a tackle in addition to Penix, it’s pretty appealing to hit so many needs at once. (Say 6/43/2025 1st)
After doing it if the top 3 qbs are good or Penix is Rosen they’ll look very bad. Definitely safest (and probably smartest) to just draft the 3rd QB and build around them as needed. Just don’t understand not signing a LT if you’re going with the simple plan of: draft a qb.
After doing it if the top 3 qbs are good or Penix is Rosen they’ll look very bad. Definitely safest (and probably smartest) to just draft the 3rd QB and build around them as needed. Just don’t understand not signing a LT if you’re going with the simple plan of: draft a qb.