'23 AL Playoff Picture

[Rovin Romine]

Some here have argued that these things should not have to be taught at the major league level. Ideally they may be right. . .

. . .and as I look at this roster (because the bulk of this team will be back) I have concerns that we are having many of the same discussions next year.

Well, clearly, they do need to be taught. And they can be.

And as to the last line, I agree. Coaching is something of a black box. We know the coaches work with various players, and we've seen players improve. Dave Bush has a mixed record, but as pitching is so volatile, I think it's probably a good sign that he's seemed to find some diamonds in the rough over the years. I'm less sanguine on the hitting coaches, though there have been some good results this year.

That being said, I kind of hope they clean house early in the winter. Get a new suite of coaches/manager and use the time before opening day (whether or not that's spring training alone) to attempt to shore up the individual and collective short-comings. Sometimes you just need a different voice in there. This appears to be one of those times, because either the message or the messenger or the environment isn't clicking.

I think they also need to make a push in the minors to address these sort of fundamental things with the up-and-coming players. I know they work on specific skills, so perhaps they're doing so already - I really don't know.

 

[AB in DC]

Boneheadedness...I've been fairly vocal about the baserunning and errors, but at times the team really seems to struggle with fundamentals. IMO these things should be addressed on a CONTINUAL basis. Some here have argued that these things should not have to be taught at the major league level. Ideally they may be right, but then why the F does a team employ a staff of coaches? I understand that this isn't the NFL where you have the better part of a week to practice before the next game or the NBA where you have a couple of practice sessions a week, but teams take batting practice every day. To some degree they take infield practice. Pitchers work on mechanics and have certain days when they get their throwing in. IMO there is absolutely no reason in the world why 15-30 minutes per day or even every other day can't be devoted to other aspects of situational preparedness.

Makes me wonder how a Belichick-type coach would respond to this situation.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Makes me wonder how a Belichick-type coach would respond to this situation.

Have you seen the Patriots the last few years?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Sox gain after beating Houston, with Toronto and Seattle finally losing. Back to 4 down in last WC spot. We need more outcomes like last night (without the injuries and drama though please).
I still feel they need to be at no more than 3 back by the end of the month.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Sox gain after beating Houston, with Toronto and Seattle finally losing. Back to 4 down in last WC spot. We need more outcomes like last night (without the injuries and drama though please).
I still feel they need to be at no more than 3 back by the end of the month.

Today is a must-win and then they need to take at least 4/6 at home.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Today is a must-win and then they need to take at least 4/6 at home.

Dodgers series before that

 

[bosockboy]

Dodgers series before that

Dodgers are part of the 6 at home.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

I'm pretty much with you. Overall, success in a single baseball season is leveraging your talent to accrue more marginal wins than other teams. But you have a finite number of games in the season to do that in.

I think Cora's often misled by a deep season mentality or a 2018 hangover. His patience with players has its upsides, and he's able to keep the club largely rested. The downside is that he seems to end up holding out for a late-season hot-streak to fix things. 2019, 2022 (to a degree), and this year.

I can't say his normal strategy with the pitching staff is irrational. But it's not a winning strategy. As we've seen all season, and especially in the last two games. 1) He leaves Paxton in too long, even though he had Murphy in the pen. 2) He pulls Houck for Winck, then goes to Love-ra (not that there weren't errors also.) He just can't seem to pick up those extra wins, and he usually won't commit his best pitchers in ties or mildly trailing games. As if all ties or mildly trailing games were the same.

Moreover, whatever he and the coaches are doing is generally not working. The defense is bad (and in Dever's case has been bad for years). The offense can sometimes just appear not to show up against scrub pitchers. Whether that's just streakiness or trying to implement the wrong plan. . .who knows? But the inconsistency is notable. Is bone-headed play something that just goes away in August/September? (Because now it somehow matters more?) Or is it something that should have been addressed in Spring Training? Or April/May?

I'm not really sure how Cora was supposed to play the bullpen differently in those two losses. The bullpen was spent on Monday after going all out on Saturday and Sunday to sweep the Yanks. Murphy and Llovera were really the only options so you had to ride Paxton as long as possible. On Tuesday the issue wasn't Llovera, it was the offense leaving nine men on base in the first seven innings. A timely hit or two and he doesn't appear in that game. I'm not sure who else you want to bring in when down by three in the 7th.
I'm as critical as anyone of Cora's bullpen use at times, but the true issue was leaving 21 men on base in two games rather than relief pitching.

 

[JM3]

Fangraphs current AL playoff odds...

Orioles 99.4%
Rays 98.3%
Twins 92.1%
Astros 85.4%
Rangers 73.6%
Mariners 67.3%
Blue Jays 63.8%
Red Sox 11.6%
Guardians 6.7%
Tigers 1.2%
Yankees 0.2%
Angels 0.1%

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

YED getting closer . . .

 

[JM3]

YED getting closer . . .

The New York Yankees began the 2023 season with the the second-highest payroll in baseball at $275 million and will likely end the season in the basement of the AL East.

General manager Brian Cashman proclaimed the 2023 season as “a disaster” and “an embarrassment” on Wednesday. The Yankees are coming off a nine-game losing streak, the longest in a century will evaluate the jobs of both Cashman and skipper Aaron Boone.

View: https://twitter.com/BeyondtheMnstr/status/1694680164527947968

 

[Rovin Romine]

Fangraphs current AL playoff odds...
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

There are some pretty wild swings there if you scroll day by day.

 

[Max Power]

The Yankees are twice as likely to make the playoffs as the Angels. So they have that going for them.

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

One thing going for the Sox in this homestand vs LA is that LA will by flying right after a double header with no off day. Both of the weekend games are day games. Might be a small thing, but I'll take any edge.

EDIT: corrected claim that LA is flying from the West Coast

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

One thing going for the Sox in this homestand vs LA is that LA will by flying cross country right after a double header with no off day. Both of the weekend games are day games. Might be a small thing, but I'll take any edge.

Supposed to rain all day tomorrow so the Dodgers might get a brief reprieve, followed by a double header Saturday or Sunday.

 

[Pandemonium67]

Holy shit, Cashman looks like he's wearing a Tito disguise.

 

[TeddyBallgame9]

One thing going for the Sox in this homestand vs LA is that LA will by flying cross country right after a double header with no off day. Both of the weekend games are day games. Might be a small thing, but I'll take any edge.

They’re playing a double header in Cleveland today, not LA.

 

[Niastri]

One thing going for the Sox in this homestand vs LA is that LA will by flying cross country right after a double header with no off day. Both of the weekend games are day games. Might be a small thing, but I'll take any edge.

They'll need to brew the coffee with the green handle

 

[DeadlySplitter]

6-4 road trip is acceptable. They really should have won one more WAS game but they got it back in NYY, arguably. There's still a bit of time to have a 8-2 really hot stretch to get into it.

I'm still looking back at the PIT, STL, CIN, MIA and COL series at home (2-13) if they do miss out.

 

[TFisNEXT]

6-4 road trip is acceptable. They really should have won one more WAS game but they got it back in NYY, arguably. There's still a bit of time to have a 8-2 really hot stretch to get into it.

I'm still looking back at the PIT, STL, CIN, MIA and COL series at home (2-13) if they do miss out.

Yeah if they can win 4/6 at home, they will at least put themselves in position where if they can quickly follow that up with an 8-2 stretch, then it full-on pennant race stuff the final 3 weeks. (Except instead of pennant it’s a wildcard)

 

[bosockboy]

This team has enough flaws to be exposed over 162; but in a playoff series is extremely dangerous. They are built for a sprint; let’s hope they get their crack at it.

 

[simplicio]

I'm hoping Abreu's molten start continues and gives them latitude to rest/DH Yoshida/Turner/Duvall regularly over the next week.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

This team has enough flaws to be exposed over 162; but in a playoff series is extremely dangerous. They are built for a sprint; let’s hope they get their crack at it.

Exactly. Just getting there is/was the problem.

 

[Bergs]

This team has enough flaws to be exposed over 162; but in a playoff series is extremely dangerous. They are built for a sprint; let’s hope they get their crack at it.

Defense is where "built for a sprint" teams always fail. Best case scenario is that someone other than Devers destroys us in a play in game.

 

[scottyno]

Defense is where "built for a sprint" teams always fail. Best case scenario is that someone other than Devers destroys us in a play in game.

Good news is there is no play in game anymore

 

[Bergs]

Good news is there is no play in game anymore

Hooray!

 

[E5 Yaz]

Blue Jays lose

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Blue Jays lose

Houston and Seattle are tied

 

[TFisNEXT]

So we have:
HOU/SEA: Tied for WC 2 and 3
TOR: 1.5 back
BOS: 3.5 back

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

While they still have a hope, I'm going to update this after each series.
I originally assumed they need 89 wins to catch the Jays and make the playoffs. Now that the Mariners have passed the Jays (and now tied the Astros), I think it takes a minimum of 90 wins to get in. And if they get to 90 but don't make it in, sure it will be disappointing, but it will also be more than most of us expected coming into the season.
So how do the Sox get to 90 wins? They needed to go 28-16 (.636), +12, over the last 44 games, when I started this. After splitting with with Astros in Houston they now they need to go 22-12 (.647) over the final 34 games. Here's a possible path:
Just win, baby! The rest will take care of itself.

BTW, somebody upthread responded to my previous update with a mention of the "Manila Metric" (I have no idea what that is, even after googling, but whatever). The point was that teams don't win series or sweep weak opponents as laid out here. Of course not. I would never expect they would. Especially not this Sox team, which has been less than consistent. But I like this structure because I can see how they can make up lost ground, like they did by sweeping the Yankees after losing two in DC, and I can see how even a modest winning streak could p[ut them "ahead of schedule." If I'm honest, I think the Sox' best chance to hit 90 wins is to reel off another 8-game winning streak like they did in April-May and play the rest of the schedule at two games over .500. Or maybe a couple of 5-game winning streaks and play the rest at .500.

Also, some here have described this season-ending stretch as like a playoff run. I like that. I'm definitely following the games and series now with a playoff mentality. World Series against the Dodgers this weekend? Why the hell not? "DON'T LET US WIN TODAY!!!"

after 8/13 (62-56)
8/14 off
8/15-17 ... 3 @ Nats ... 2-1 (64-57) ... 1-2 (63-58)
8/18-20 ... 3 @ Yankees ... 2-1 (66-58) ... 3-0 (66-58) Back on track sweep!
8/21-24 ... 4 @ Astros ... 2-2 (68-60) ... On track
8/25-27 ... 3 vs Dodgers ... 1-2 (69-62)
8/28-30 ... 3 vs Astros ... 2-1 (71-63)
8/31 off day
9/1-3 ... 3 @ Royals ... 3-0 (74-63) {changed from original 2-1 in order to get to 90 wins}
9/4-6 ... 3 @ Rays ... 2-1 (76-64)
9/7 off day
9/8-10 ... 3 vs Orioles ... 2-1 (78-65)
9/11-14 ... 4 vs Yankees ... 3-1 (81-66)
9/15-17 ... 3 @ Blue Jays ... 2-1 (83-67)
9/18-20 ... 3 @ Rangers ... 1-2 (84-69)
9/21 off day
9/22-24 ... 3 vs White Sox ... 3-0 (87-69)
9/25 off day
9/26-27 ... 2 vs Rays ... 1-1 (88-70)
9/28-10/1 ... 4 @ Orioles ... 2-2 (90-72)

 

[Return of the Dewey]

While they still have a hope, I'm going to update this after each series.
I originally assumed they need 89 wins to catch the Jays and make the playoffs. Now that the Mariners have passed the Jays (and now tied the Astros), I think it takes a minimum of 90 wins to get in. And if they get to 90 but don't make it in, sure it will be disappointing, but it will also be more than most of us expected coming into the season.
So how do the Sox get to 90 wins? They needed to go 28-16 (.636), +12, over the last 44 games, when I started this. After splitting with with Astros in Houston they now they need to go 22-12 (.647) over the final 34 games. Here's a possible path:
Just win, baby! The rest will take care of itself.

BTW, somebody upthread responded to my previous update with a mention of the "Manila Metric" (I have no idea what that is, even after googling, but whatever). The point was that teams don't win series or sweep weak opponents as laid out here. Of course not. I would never expect they would. Especially not this Sox team, which has been less than consistent. But I like this structure because I can see how they can make up lost ground, like they did by sweeping the Yankees after losing two in DC, and I can see how even a modest winning streak could p[ut them "ahead of schedule." If I'm honest, I think the Sox' best chance to hit 90 wins is to reel off another 8-game winning streak like they did in April-May and play the rest of the schedule at two games over .500. Or maybe a couple of 5-game winning streaks and play the rest at .500.

Also, some here have described this season-ending stretch as like a playoff run. I like that. I'm definitely following the games and series now with a playoff mentality. World Series against the Dodgers this weekend? Why the hell not? "DON'T LET US WIN TODAY!!!"

after 8/13 (62-56)
8/14 off
8/15-17 ... 3 @ Nats ... 2-1 (64-57) ... 1-2 (63-58)
8/18-20 ... 3 @ Yankees ... 2-1 (66-58) ... 3-0 (66-58) Back on track sweep!
8/21-24 ... 4 @ Astros ... 2-2 (68-60) ... On track
8/25-27 ... 3 vs Dodgers ... 1-2 (69-62)
8/28-30 ... 3 vs Astros ... 2-1 (71-63)
8/31 off day
9/1-3 ... 3 @ Royals ... 3-0 (74-63) {changed from original 2-1 in order to get to 90 wins}
9/4-6 ... 3 @ Rays ... 2-1 (76-64)
9/7 off day
9/8-10 ... 3 vs Orioles ... 2-1 (78-65)
9/11-14 ... 4 vs Yankees ... 3-1 (81-66)
9/15-17 ... 3 @ Blue Jays ... 2-1 (83-67)
9/18-20 ... 3 @ Rangers ... 1-2 (84-69)
9/21 off day
9/22-24 ... 3 vs White Sox ... 3-0 (87-69)
9/25 off day
9/26-27 ... 2 vs Rays ... 1-1 (88-70)
9/28-10/1 ... 4 @ Orioles ... 2-2 (90-72)

FYI, Manila Metric is call back to the late SoSH member ManilaSox. Not doing it justice, but Manila always espoused how home teams will win 2/3 or 3/4, which became dubbed Manila Metric.

I chuckled when I saw that you Googled it …would have been great if something came up.

 

[LogansDad]

So we have:
HOU/SEA: Tied for WC 2 and 3
TOR: 1.5 back
BOS: 3.5 back

And Texas is only 1 up on Seattle.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I would be very happy if both TX teams miss the playoffs

 

[joe dokes]

I would be very happy if both TX teams miss the playoffs

Sox do have 3 with TX, so they can do their own dirty work on that.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

FYI, Manila Metric is call back to the late SoSH member ManilaSox. Not doing it justice, but Manila always espoused how home teams will win 2/3 or 3/4, which became dubbed Manila Metric.

I chuckled when I saw that you Googled it …would have been great if something came up.

Thanks for enlightening me
Here’s to #ManilaSox

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Taking 2/4 from Houston was essential. 5/7 road trip!
4 out of next 6 is also minimal

 

[8slim]

My minimum expectation for the season is that the Sox be plausibly in playoff contention going into Labor Day weekend. Looking like they may fall short of that, barring one helluva run the next 8 games.

Pissing away the chance to stack wins against the dregs of the league may bite them hard.

Just when I think I'm out!...

HUGE to square up the Houston series.

It's crazy how difficult the rest of the schedule is, so really hoping that the Ms or Stros turn cold ASAP.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

BTW, somebody upthread responded to my previous update with a mention of the "Manila Metric" (I have no idea what that is, even after googling, but whatever).

For more information, after Bill James introduced the pythag theorem of wins to the world, poster here came up with his system of predicting the Red Sox record. He'd basically go through every series and predict whether the Sox would sweep, win the series, lost the series, or get swept. I forgot exactly how he did it but he was basically like 2/3 at home and 1/3 on the road against good teams. Etc.

It was easier to do when the Sox were good.

That was his "metric," which is a lot like what you are doing. It was not very well received but he was doing it for a very different purpose than you are.

 

[chrisfont9]

Just when I think I'm out!...

HUGE to square up the Houston series.

It's crazy how difficult the rest of the schedule is, so really hoping that the Ms or Stros turn cold ASAP.

Heh, same, I happily left civilization for two days on Wednesday, resigned to there being nothing to watch. The good news is that we are going on vacation for a whole week Saturday, in an area where the only internet is from Canada ($10/day charge) so I will remain out of touch. That should set the Sox up nicely.

 

[E5 Yaz]

The Trevor Story play in the B8 of the third Astors game might turn out to be the most important moment of this entire playoff run. It'll easily be Top 10 even after this all plays out

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

For more information, after Bill James introduced the pythag theorem of wins to the world, poster here came up with his system of predicting the Red Sox record. He'd basically go through every series and predict whether the Sox would sweep, win the series, lost the series, or get swept. I forgot exactly how he did it but he was basically like 2/3 at home and 1/3 on the road against good teams. Etc.

It was easier to do when the Sox were good.

That was his "metric," which is a lot like what you are doing. It was not very well received but he was doing it for a very different purpose than you are.

Thanks for the details.
Yeah, I’m not trying to predict. Just looking at what needs to be done. They pretty much have to win 2 out of 3 the rest of the way to get to 90.
And 90 only gets them in the playoffs if no more than 2 other non-division winners get past 90. The Rangers get to 90 going 18-17. The Astros do it at 18-15. The Mariners at 19-16. The Jays at 20-14. The Rays at 12-21.
The Rays are nearly guaranteed a spot. That leaves two for the rest. Mariners are hot (8-2 last 10), Rangers are cold (2-8). I can see the M’s taking the west, leaving the Sox to fight it out with the Rangers, Astros and Jays.
If the Sox do get in, I think it’s with the Astros, leaving the Jays and Rangers out.

 

[donutogre]

For more information, after Bill James introduced the pythag theorem of wins to the world, poster here came up with his system of predicting the Red Sox record. He'd basically go through every series and predict whether the Sox would sweep, win the series, lost the series, or get swept. I forgot exactly how he did it but he was basically like 2/3 at home and 1/3 on the road against good teams. Etc.

It was easier to do when the Sox were good.

That was his "metric," which is a lot like what you are doing. It was not very well received but he was doing it for a very different purpose than you are.

Yeah I think the whole thing also had the notion of like... to get to 95 wins, a 4-game series should provide this many wins, while a 3-game series provides this many wins, and so forth. It was a glorified counting system that took on a bizarre life of its own. I think it was the poster's insistence that we could basically put those wins in the bank that ended up with so many people pushing back. It was a weird time.

 

[jmcc5400]

Yeah I think the whole thing also had the notion of like... to get to 95 wins, a 4-game series should provide this many wins, while a 3-game series provides this many wins, and so forth. It was a glorified counting system that took on a bizarre life of its own. I think it was the poster's insistence that we could basically put those wins in the bank that ended up with so many people pushing back. It was a weird time.

I think it was more that he coined it as a "metric," which was a little shaky. Good guy though and the slagging he took over it was unfortunate.

 

[Return of the Dewey]

I think it was more that he coined it as a "metric," which was a little shaky. Good guy though and the slagging he took over it was unfortunate.

He was an eternal optimist during the height of Sox pessimistic era (pre 2004). For those interested: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/its-a-big-beyond-rip-manilasoxfan.17070/

 

[donutogre]

He was an eternal optimist during the height of Sox pessimistic era (pre 2004). For those interested: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/its-a-big-beyond-rip-manilasoxfan.17070/

Well that's a damn shame. Now that you bring it up, it rings a bell, but still.

 

[Rasputin]

BTW, somebody upthread responded to my previous update with a mention of the "Manila Metric"

I assure you I did it with all the love in my heart. Manila was a good guy.

 

[Pandemonium67]

I'm glad others have given props to Manila, because he was a really great guy who injected some sorely needed positivity to our game threads. Believe me, I found his optimism to be misplaced at times (and he was accused of being pollyanna-ish), but I also found him inspiring. He helped balance things out during a very stressful (and exhilarating) time in Red Sox history.

For those who don't know, Manila died suddenly some years ago from some medical condition I can't remember now. He's one of the fallen SoSH members I miss the most.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

He was an eternal optimist during the height of Sox pessimistic era (pre 2004). For those interested: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/its-a-big-beyond-rip-manilasoxfan.17070/

I hadn't remembered that he passed; thanks for the reminder. His "Metric" will never be forgotten though.

 

[pk1627]

He was an eternal optimist during the height of Sox pessimistic era (pre 2004). For those interested: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/its-a-big-beyond-rip-manilasoxfan.17070/

I met Manila. Great guy. Huge fan and unfairly dumped on for what was an interesting idea

btw - the year he was a huge optimist? 2004

 

[tims4wins]

The basis of the Manila Metric was really simple. To get to 95 wins, you win 2/3 of your home games (54-27) and play .500 on the road (41-40). So he had most home series as winning 2 of 3, some sweeps, and with 4 game series they would be 2 of 4 and some 3 of 4. And similar with road series, against good teams he had them losing 2 of 3, against bad teams winning 2 of 3, and with 4 game series usually a split. And agreed he took a bunch of crap because it was a very sabermetric time and it really wasn’t a metric but the thought behind it was pretty simple.