He is susceptible to Flacco like crunch time mistakes, for sure. Not having guys around isn't really an excuse, mistake are mistakes, its just when you have TRich and a terrible defense outside of the passing game there's really no alternatives to chucking the ball around all day. The pass catching group is quite good, so he has guys around him that don't suck, there's just nothing outside the passing game if that's not working.dcmissle said:
AFC Championship Game: Indy @ New England
- Thread starter DJnVa
- Start date
- Status
dcmissle said:
Wish I had written this. I'll add that Indy was -5 in TO margin, which is really surprising for an 11-5 team. Herron has fumbled 4 times in the last 4 weeks.
Fleener ran wild against us last time and Allen is healthy. I think defending their tight ends is a big priority.
Whatever one thinks of Revis's performance yesterday, I pity the poor sap(s) who draws his attention next week. The critical reviews, fair or not, along with his ego and his will to compete, will surely push his performance "to eleven," as they say, and that can only be a good thing for New England.
DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
Revis on Wayne this time around would be a colossal waste of resources, the only player to have fallen off a cliff more in the second half of the season would be Peyton Manning. Manning should sign a one day contract with IND so he and Wayne can retire together this offseason.
Revis has to be on Hilton who is the only legit WR on IND. Shut him down and it will be a long day for Luck.
Hilton has elite speed and may not be a good matchup for Revis. They shut him down last time with Arrington/McCourty; why mess with a good thing? I think Revis plasters Moncrief or Wayne and let McCourty pick off a pass or two forcing it to Hilton.
Also, maybe I am being overconfident, but the Pats have decimated this Indy team the past few years, and I don't think the Indy team has really improved much over that span. The team the Pats roll out Sunday, however, will be the best they will have fielded. I can't find it in me to get overly concerned about this one.
There's some reason to be concerned, if based purely on history, about the Patriots playoff losses. They have only lost to teams that they had already faced in the regular season. Admittedly, these teams often gave NE more of a challenge than Indy did this year, but they have lost to teams they beat in the regular season (2007 NYG, 2009 BAL, 2010 NYJ [45-3]) before.
NE should be the favorite of course, but Luck is a very good and rising NFL QB, they have legitimate offensive threats and their defense has come to play the last month+. There's never any freebies in the playoffs and this is no exception to that rule, especially since they've played once already.
NE should be the favorite of course, but Luck is a very good and rising NFL QB, they have legitimate offensive threats and their defense has come to play the last month+. There's never any freebies in the playoffs and this is no exception to that rule, especially since they've played once already.
I thought the Pats would cruise yesterday and they damn near gave me a heart attack. I'm assuming this one will be close as well. 34-24 Pats is what I got for next week. This is a different Indy they faced back in week 11.
Ed Hillel said:
yeah, I have no problem with how Revis played vs the Ravens -- he was basically great -- but now that you point it out the one match up I don't like for Revis is on a speed guy. I like the idea of Browner on Nicks, Revis could dominate Moncrief, and a dbl team on Hilton with the speedier Arrington makes a ton of sense. Either that and/or a bunch of zone.
If the Colts OL performs as they did yesterday, we could be in for yet another shootout. Have to get at least a modicum of pressure.
Talk about a dream emotional matchup run for the Colts. They had the opportunity to perform a Manning exorcism and now beat the Pats.
Having watched most of their games, I find conclusion that the Colts defense has improved significantly since the last game against the Patriots highly suspect.
Here are the teams they've beaten in that period:
Jax
Wash
Cle
Hou (against 3rd string QB)
Ten (against 3rd string QB)
Cin (no Green or Grisham)
Den (Against the ghost of PM who could not throw more than 5 yards down the field)
Against the one good/healthy offense they've played in that period? Smoked 42-7 by the Cowboys.
Luck is good enough to go off and carry them, but I'm not buying the defense. This is not the 2011 Giants who were mediocre dying the regular season but were stacked with excellent linemen.
Here are the teams they've beaten in that period:
Jax
Wash
Cle
Hou (against 3rd string QB)
Ten (against 3rd string QB)
Cin (no Green or Grisham)
Den (Against the ghost of PM who could not throw more than 5 yards down the field)
Against the one good/healthy offense they've played in that period? Smoked 42-7 by the Cowboys.
Luck is good enough to go off and carry them, but I'm not buying the defense. This is not the 2011 Giants who were mediocre dying the regular season but were stacked with excellent linemen.
They looked good yest becausr they often had 10 men within 7 yrds of the LOS. Helped stop run and because noodle arm is cooked it worked.
Try a similar strategy to stop Blount next week and the Pats may score 60
Try a similar strategy to stop Blount next week and the Pats may score 60
Because those 6 day out forecasts are always so accurate.Lose Remerswaal said:
The weather would just be icing on the blowout cake
43 is also the high. By the time the game rolls around, it should be in the mid 30s or possibly upper 30s.
Not that those temps are an ice bowl, but it wont be 43 at 6:40 PM, much less the second half.
How many Pats fans went from rooting against Peyton Manning reflexively to actually wanting the Broncos to win given how pathetic he looked? That was the argument in my house during the last three quarters of that game.
Not that those temps are an ice bowl, but it wont be 43 at 6:40 PM, much less the second half.
How many Pats fans went from rooting against Peyton Manning reflexively to actually wanting the Broncos to win given how pathetic he looked? That was the argument in my house during the last three quarters of that game.
TheoShmeo said:
Denver is still the better team all the way. Much rather face the Colts defense. Also, Luck has given me no reason to fear him in his performances against the Patriots thus far. I know the day will come when he'll start figuring Belichick out and shreds our defense, but I don't think he's there yet.
Luck still threw some mind boggling throws and the media seems to gloss these over. Those two INTs were just really really bad throws. He cant afford that next week. Unfortunately for him he makes these sorts of mistakes week in week out
I was tempted to join the bandwagon of preferring the Broncos to come back and win (with Peyton further delaying the recovery of his damaged thigh - I honestly can't root for injury, but I'll root for delays in recuperation) for reasons of comparative competitive advantage this coming Sunday. But in the end, I thought about Toradol or whatever can revive the dead temporarily, and I just didn't want to take the chance. So I'm very OK with our prospects against the Colts, realizing that Coach will not allow even one moment of looking ahead too far too soon to get in the way of the team's focus on the task at hand. As a side note, I wonder if our SoSH community has a paragon in ophthalmology much akin to our paragon DRS in orthopedics who can tell us about Brady's eye.
But the overall pattern heading into next weekend doesn't appear conducive to storms or serious cold. Of course, this will essentially be a night game so temps should be dropping -- but overall it's likely to be pretty similar to what the Colts experienced in Denver.southshoresoxfan said:
If Saturday night re-enforced anything it's that the NFL is about matchups. In totality one team can look dominate over another, but a few key matchups (like an o-line that can't handle a d-line) can throw the whole calculus out of whack. When I look at the Colts, I do not see individual or position group matchups that scare me. Andrew Luck is that team's strength but the Pats can counter that with their secondary. They have a DB or two that can cover, but the Pats have more weapons and their versatility most likely can't be matched by the Colts D.
The only thing that worries me is Luck playing the football game equivalent of pitching a No-Hitter and getting some fumble luck/special team contributions. But even then I would still have faith in the Pats to win in a shootout.
The only thing that worries me is Luck playing the football game equivalent of pitching a No-Hitter and getting some fumble luck/special team contributions. But even then I would still have faith in the Pats to win in a shootout.
As bad as Manning looked yesterday I still think if they had come to Foxboro they would have been a tougher matchup for the Pats. They had a dominating running attack down the stretch that they inexplicably gave up on way too early in yesterday's game. Plus their D is far superior to Indy's D by leaps and bounds, even with the injury issues at LB. So I could have conceivably seen a game plan to limit what they ask Peyton to do, pound the running game and try to keep it close on D and win a lower scoring game. I still would have liked the Pats in that game, but not as much as I like them against the Colts.
With Indy you have to deal with Luck potentially winning the game on his own, but I don't think he's really there yet in terms of winning a game like next Sunday's. He actually just played OK yesterday despite making some amazing throws, and he seems to have a little Favre in him where he has total faith in his arm and tries to make 2-3 throws a game he should never try. I think the only way Indy can win on Sunday is a shootout, and I just don't see the defense being that bad two games in a row.
Bring it on.
With Indy you have to deal with Luck potentially winning the game on his own, but I don't think he's really there yet in terms of winning a game like next Sunday's. He actually just played OK yesterday despite making some amazing throws, and he seems to have a little Favre in him where he has total faith in his arm and tries to make 2-3 throws a game he should never try. I think the only way Indy can win on Sunday is a shootout, and I just don't see the defense being that bad two games in a row.
Bring it on.
TheoShmeo said:
Not a medical guy, but have had a blood vessel burst in almost exactly the same place. It looks like hell but has no effect on your vision. It didn't even hurt for me but I'll bet it did for Tom since his came from a finger poke. So long as the abrasion did not involve the cornea, there shouldn't be anything to worry about. And if his cornea had been affected, we definitely would have seen the results in game.
I am not a doctor, but I do work with some. I haven't talked to any of them about this though.
I am not worried about it, it looks like a burst blood vessel and I've had a few of those. No impact on vision at all, no pain, just looks a bit creepy. Most of them I didn't even know I had until someone told me about it. If I see pictures of him with an eye patch and there are reports of a lot of pain I might worry.
I am not worried about it, it looks like a burst blood vessel and I've had a few of those. No impact on vision at all, no pain, just looks a bit creepy. Most of them I didn't even know I had until someone told me about it. If I see pictures of him with an eye patch and there are reports of a lot of pain I might worry.
Luck reminds me of early career Manning when facing the Patriots. BB and Crennell could confuse him by disguising the defense and force him into making mistakes, until eventually he'd figure things out and start to shred the secondary. I'm thinking a barn burner similar to one of those games where Luck starts to make better reads and the Pats just eke it out.
When waiting on a match-up I always want the loser to have advanced. It is the nature of that situation to hope for the weaker of the two teams. So this seems like about as good a draw as we could hope for -- Indy won but it is not hard to see the ways in which Denver underperformed and blew it.
I though would like to resist the temptation to assume that the Pats have this game with ease.
Luck does have the kind of arm where he could just throw strikes all night and if Brady is a little off or the O-line stinks or if Indy can follow-up from Baltimore's success running and then Herron has a big game, anything could happen.
I am confident that the Pats can win, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Maybe Indy's D line will final have an answer to the run game? None of those are 'when-pigs-fly' situations either.
I am more worried about Brady's shoulders than his eye. It seemed like he really got driven into the turf a couple times. Ouch.
I though would like to resist the temptation to assume that the Pats have this game with ease.
Luck does have the kind of arm where he could just throw strikes all night and if Brady is a little off or the O-line stinks or if Indy can follow-up from Baltimore's success running and then Herron has a big game, anything could happen.
I am confident that the Pats can win, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Maybe Indy's D line will final have an answer to the run game? None of those are 'when-pigs-fly' situations either.
I am more worried about Brady's shoulders than his eye. It seemed like he really got driven into the turf a couple times. Ouch.
Import78 said:
Brady's eye being 100% fine but Bill asking him to wear an eye patch this week when speaking with the media would be the ultimate troll job. Bad for my heart, but an amazing trolling.
TheoShmeo said:
From personal experience {close encounter with a tree branch}, I can tell you that what you saw is what an abrasion on the white of your eye looks like. I was given some special eye drops for a couple of weeks with no real side effects.
http://i.imgur.com/dzzZDFF.webm
EDIT: What Rev considers fun.
Moved a bunch of Manning/Broncos posts to that thread.
EDIT: What Rev considers fun.
Moved a bunch of Manning/Broncos posts to that thread.
This one has me a little nervous, it feels like it could be Luck's "coming out party," particularly when you consider how poorly we covered the TE against the Ravens and how weak our pass rush was. I also expect the Colts to focus on limiting the run (fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me), but that SCREAMS lots of play action, at least in the first half. Gronk or Wright may have a huge game.
Not that this matters, but I'm feeling 34-24 Pats. Then the real nightmare begins, because I don't think Green Bay is getting out of Seattle with a W if Rodgers is still limping around.
Not that this matters, but I'm feeling 34-24 Pats. Then the real nightmare begins, because I don't think Green Bay is getting out of Seattle with a W if Rodgers is still limping around.
They've already fooled them twice, though, racking up 234 yards on the ground in last season's divisional round game.H78 said:
southshoresoxfan said:
Yeah. If they want to stack the box and dare Brady to beat them, with guys like Gronk, Edelman, Amendola, and LaFell all getting shots at single coverage? Bring it. Brady will simply locate the man to man presnap and hit that guy all day long.
Because of Manning's limitations yesterday, the Colts knew that any throw more than 8-10 yards downfield was going to be a floater and they could react. That's simply not happening next weekend.
H78 said:
This is irrational. You're just concocting post-game story lines that would annoy you the most.
If the Patriots lose, there will be a shitty story line. If they win, there won't be. They will probably win. That's all you can tell yourself. The rest is your mind trying to condition itself to the prospect of a painful loss.
The Ravens had a good running game; better than anything that the Colts can drum up. Forsett (1266 yards this season) is very good. The two Smiths are excellent/very good WR, and Owen Daniels had a solid year for a TE not named Gronk or Graham (537 yards receiving in 15 games, starting 13).
As for Flacco, we bust his balls around here, but he threw for 3986 yards, 27/12, 91.0 rating this year. His O Line allowed 19 sacks, by far the best protection he's had.
The Colts are more talented on offense, but I don't think it's as stark a difference as you'd think.
The last 2 games, the Patriots have rushed for 480 yards and 10 TDs. Let that sink in. Ten!!! I can't believe the Cots weren't already selling out to stop the run and simply failing at some point.
Stopping the run has to be their focus this week, and while I doubt they'll be successful all of a sudden, I think they'll get absolutely killed by play action.
Stopping the run has to be their focus this week, and while I doubt they'll be successful all of a sudden, I think they'll get absolutely killed by play action.
- Status