AFC Championship Game: Indy @ New England

[j44thor]

While I expected a close game vs. BAL due to the BAL front 7 I don't have the same respect for the IND Defense.  Sure Vontae Davis can take away one weapon (most likely Lafell or Edelman) but that leaves Gronk, Amendola, possibly Wright against a very average secondary otherwise.  Outside of Gronk I won't be surprised to see Amendola lead the team in receiving this week.  Seems like he is finally healthy.
 
The only aspect of this game that gives me pause is if IND OL has found something.  They manhandled a very good DEN DL and we saw the NE DL struggle mightily against BAL.  I did hear that yesterday was the first time all season the same 5 were starting consecutive games for the IND OL.  That said even if the game is a shoot out I still like NE chances.  
 
41-31 is my call.

 

[Stitch01]

I agree, given that the Pats made a much tougher front seven a non-factor Saturday through game plan and execution in the passing game it seems logical they should be able to handle the Indy defense even with a better secondary.

 

[Super Nomario]

While I expected a close game vs. BAL due to the BAL front 7 I don't have the same respect for the IND Defense.  Sure Vontae Davis can take away one weapon (most likely Lafell or Edelman) but that leaves Gronk, Amendola, possibly Wright against a very average secondary otherwise.  Outside of Gronk I won't be surprised to see Amendola lead the team in receiving this week.  Seems like he is finally healthy.
 
The only aspect of this game that gives me pause is if IND OL has found something.  They manhandled a very good DEN DL and we saw the NE DL struggle mightily against BAL.  I did hear that yesterday was the first time all season the same 5 were starting consecutive games for the IND OL.  That said even if the game is a shoot out I still like NE chances.  
 
41-31 is my call.

Amendola had a couple nice YAC runs against a terrible-tackling secondary, but let's face it: 51 of his 81 yards Saturday came on a busted coverage thanks to a nice trick play. That was a play 100 out of 100 NFL wide receivers make and required no special skill on Amendola's part. Other than that, he had 4 catches for 30 yards and a TD. That's better than he's done much of the year, but he didn't light the world on fire or anything.

 

[Stitch01]

Pretty good day for the fifth weapon in the passing game though even stripping out the trick play.  I hear your point, but he did make two plays to get the TD and the extra yards for the first down.

 

[doc]

Cougar!  Cougar! Linda!

 

[j44thor]

Amendola had a couple nice YAC runs against a terrible-tackling secondary, but let's face it: 51 of his 81 yards Saturday came on a busted coverage thanks to a nice trick play. That was a play 100 out of 100 NFL wide receivers make and required no special skill on Amendola's part. Other than that, he had 4 catches for 30 yards and a TD. That's better than he's done much of the year, but he didn't light the world on fire or anything.

 
The point is that I'm a lot more confident in Amendola stepping up if Colts gameplan to take away Edleman and perhaps Lafell than I was 6 weeks ago.
Vontae Davis is likely going to take away Edelman or Lafell and Toler isn't bad on the other side.  Amendola could lead the WR corp in receiving simply because he has the best matchup not because he is the best player.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
The point is that I'm a lot more confident in Amendola stepping up if Colts gameplan to take away Edleman and perhaps Lafell than I was 6 weeks ago.
Vontae Davis is likely going to take away Edelman or Lafell and Toler isn't bad on the other side.  Amendola could lead the WR corp in receiving simply because he has the best matchup not because he is the best player.

I think they can get matchups by moving Edelman around - neither Davis (22 snaps in the slot all season) and Toler (25) plays in the slot, so they can likely get matchups on safeties inside in 2 WR sets. I think plan A will be exposing their LB with 6 OL and 2 TE sets anyway; I don't expect this to be much of an Amendola game.

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

 
Now that Rex is gone, the shine has worn off that apple.
 

 
Unless or until the Jets move out of NY/NJ this isn't remotely true.

 

[GregHarris]

I think you are underrating Amendola's performance a bit.  He had an absolutely critical third down conversion on the game winning drive where he dodged a would be tackler and then stretched the ball over the stick as he stepped out.  Can't leave out that spectacular leaping TD score too.  Probably his best game as a Pat.

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

I think you are underrating Amendola's performance a bit.  He had an absolutely critical third down conversion on the game winning drive where he dodged a would be tackler and then stretched the ball over the stick as he stepped out.  Can't leave out that spectacular leaping TD score too.  Probably his best game as a Pat.

 
Probably the play of the game. If he doesn't break the tackle it's 4th and about 2 from the 41, and if he breaks the tackle but doesn't reach out for the 1st down it's 4th and inches. Well out of field goal range in each scenario.
 
Brady can make the 4th and inches play with his patented sneak, but 4th and 2 from the 41 would have probably pushed my heart over the edge. 
 
Thank you Amendola for letting me see this beautiful Monday. 

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
shalise manza young ‏@shalisemyoung 14m14 minutes ago
guys: no one is withholding information on Stork. pretty sure I can speak for my fellow reporters that we're all trying to get an answer

 
No news is good news I guess.  He still might be done for the year and BB might just be holding back the info to keep the Colts guessing but the longer we hear nothing the better the prognosis IMO.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
No news is good news I guess.  He still might be done for the year and BB might just be holding back the info to keep the Colts guessing but the longer we hear nothing the better the prognosis IMO.

I'm telling you right now that he won't play on Sunday and probably won't be back if they make the Super Bowl.  I asked an ortho I know and his opinion was at the best an MCL sprain and a possible comeback in 3 weeks for the SB.  It's not a torn ACL because of the braces they all wear on their knees for this very purpose.

 

[Leather]

 
Probably the play of the game. If he doesn't break the tackle it's 4th and about 2 from the 41, and if he breaks the tackle but doesn't reach out for the 1st down it's 4th and inches. Well out of field goal range in each scenario.
 
Brady can make the 4th and inches play with his patented sneak, but 4th and 2 from the 41 would have probably pushed my heart over the edge. 
 
Thank you Amendola for letting me see this beautiful Monday. 

 
Amendola also would have had a pickup of a bunch of yards (on the pass ruled not a catch), if Brady had thrown it about 1 foot closer to him.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I'm telling you right now that he won't play on Sunday and probably won't be back if they make the Super Bowl.  I asked an ortho I know and his opinion was at the best an MCL sprain and a possible comeback in 3 weeks for the SB.  It's not a torn ACL because of the braces they all wear on their knees for this very purpose.

 
Yeah, some kind of MCL injury looked most likely to my completely untrained eye (getting hit from the side like that).  I don't have much hope for this weekend but getting him back for the Super Bowl would be big and that seems like within the range of possibilities if its a relatively mild injury.

 

[54thMA]

 
Unless or until the Jets move out of NY/NJ this isn't remotely true.

 

I was speaking for myself; if other people want to continue to pile on, that's their right.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

 
Probably the play of the game. If he doesn't break the tackle it's 4th and about 2 from the 41, and if he breaks the tackle but doesn't reach out for the 1st down it's 4th and inches. Well out of field goal range in each scenario.
 
Brady can make the 4th and inches play with his patented sneak, but 4th and 2 from the 41 would have probably pushed my heart over the edge. 
 
Thank you Amendola for letting me see this beautiful Monday. 

I'll add one more -- a play Amendola actually didn't make.  He damn near dug out a terrible low Brady throw on 3rd down on the game's opening drive with a sprawling effort.  Didn't make the play, but made it one hell of a lot closer (overturned on a tough-but-fair review) than it should've been.

 

[pokey_reese]

Worth noting that BAL actually had a higher offensive DVOA than IND during the regular season, albeit while playing apparently an extremely easy schedule in terms of defense (NFC South!).  Additionally, that edge was largely in the passing game! 
 
Herron is obviously a lot better than T-Rich, but at some point you have to think that scheme and blocking have as much to do with it.  Herron seems to pick up relatively few of his yards between the tackles, which is where they were asking Richardson to run all year.  That interior line may just be a lot better at pass blocking than run blocking.

 

[Marciano490]

I'm telling you right now that he won't play on Sunday and probably won't be back if they make the Super Bowl.  I asked an ortho I know and his opinion was at the best an MCL sprain and a possible comeback in 3 weeks for the SB.  It's not a torn ACL because of the braces they all wear on their knees for this very purpose.

 
Your acquaintance must have a thriving practice if he can diagnose injuries that definitively by watching action on TV.  I'm sure he offered up his best guess, but I have no idea why you're presenting it so stridently as fact.  And I'm saying this agreeing with you that he probably doesn't play next week.

 

[Devizier]

Worth noting that BAL actually had a higher offensive DVOA than IND during the regular season, albeit while playing apparently an extremely easy schedule in terms of defense (NFC South!).  Additionally, that edge was largely in the passing game! 
 
Herron is obviously a lot better than T-Rich, but at some point you have to think that scheme and blocking have as much to do with it.  Herron seems to pick up relatively few of his yards between the tackles, which is where they were asking Richardson to run all year.  That interior line may just be a lot better at pass blocking than run blocking.

 
I have to say, the Colts' line looked pretty good in pass protection yesterday. Denver couldn't get within inches of Luck (who still wasn't particularly awesome).

 

[dcmissle]

I am counting on coverage and confusion rather than consistent pressure. We made no dent in a makeshift Bal line Saturday (when people have to remind us that Hurst would have been drafted in third round had he not ripped up his knee, we are reaching the outer limits of advocacy that prove the larger point). And if we did bring pressure, Luck probably would break contain on a few occasions and burn our ass with his feet.

 

[Shelterdog]

 
Yeah, some kind of MCL injury looked most likely to my completely untrained eye (getting hit from the side like that).  I don't have much hope for this weekend but getting him back for the Super Bowl would be big and that seems like within the range of possibilities if its a relatively mild injury.

 
I think we'd probably know by now if it were a definite season-ending injury like an ACL. In any event we're fortunate to have two players who have started a whole bunch at center and to be facing a team that does not have a surfeit of talent at DT/NT.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Jesus Christ. What happened to New England fans?
 

• Andrew luck is scary.
• Herron is awesome.
• Indy's D is way better than when we saw them earlier in the year.
• The coaching staff may have the ability to read minds.

I get wanting to discuss the game, and obviously there are a lot of nerves involved with the AFCCG, but holy shit. This is a fantastic match up for the Patriots. Luck is still very prone to making mistakes, and that type of QB falls right into BB's wheelhouse. The running game isn't good, the line isn't good, their WR/TE are OK - but largely negated by our secondary - and their defense is average at best. the collective anus puckering in New England is frightening. 

 

[nazz45]

 
Probably the play of the game. If he doesn't break the tackle it's 4th and about 2 from the 41, and if he breaks the tackle but doesn't reach out for the 1st down it's 4th and inches. Well out of field goal range in each scenario.
 
Brady can make the 4th and inches play with his patented sneak, but 4th and 2 from the 41 would have probably pushed my heart over the edge. 
 
Thank you Amendola for letting me see this beautiful Monday. 

 
Tremendous effort by Amendola on a terrific offensive play overall. From the pre-snap adjustments, to Brady's recognition, to the Solder cut-block, to Amendola's catch and run. Hope to have something on the play on Football Central soon.

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

Herron is obviously a lot better than T-Rich, but at some point you have to think that scheme and blocking have as much to do with it.  Herron seems to pick up relatively few of his yards between the tackles, which is where they were asking Richardson to run all year.  That interior line may just be a lot better at pass blocking than run blocking.

 
I didn't watch the game and haven't seen much said today about Herron post-game, but how serious was his shoulder injury? His YPC was 2.7 yesterday and of the remaining teams going into the divisional round, the IND running backs were probably the least formidable, so even if he's 100% I don't see them being two-dimensional on offense.

 

[j44thor]

KFP I'm not reading nearly as much concern around this game as Baltimore and it was clear the folks on the BAL is scary side were on point.
I'll also disagree that the IND O-line isn't good.  They manhandled a much better DL than what NE will be sending their way this week.  That said I don't think BB is dumb enough as DEN was to have Talib covering Hilton all game.  That is the equivalent of us using Browner on him all game.  What makes that all the more absurd is that DEN had the perfect CB for Hilton in Harris.
 
Regardless I think the whining about NE fans being scared is worse than any actual fans trying to give IND a punchers chance.  

 

[soxhop411]

 

[Stitch01]

Jesus Christ. What happened to New England fans?
 

• Andrew luck is scary.
• Herron is awesome.
• Indy's D is way better than when we saw them earlier in the year.
• The coaching staff may have the ability to read minds.

I get wanting to discuss the game, and obviously there are a lot of nerves involved with the AFCCG, but holy shit. This is a fantastic match up for the Patriots. Luck is still very prone to making mistakes, and that type of QB falls right into BB's wheelhouse. The running game isn't good, the line isn't good, their WR/TE are OK - but largely negated by our secondary - and their defense is average at best. the collective anus puckering in New England is frightening. 

Oh man, you dont like this thread or the Ravens thread, wait until the Super Bowl when we aren't playing a clearly inferior team for the first time all playoffs.

 

[TheMoralBully]

Where are you guys seeing it in this thread?  I agree the Ravens thread was a little silly regardless of how the game played out, but all I see here is "I expect the Pats win but it's not another steamrolling."  What's wrong with that?  The Pats are better, I'd consider it a decent upset if they lost, but their d-line has been pretty bad and it's hard to see the o-line of the last few weeks flip a switch and run for 250 yards again.  I think the Pats capitalize on a few Luck mistakes better than Denver did and score enough to win fairly comfortably, but I get the apprehension given that this isn't the same inept 25 touches for Richardson Colts we faced earlier and general AFCCG nerves.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Where are you guys seeing it in this thread?  I agree the Ravens thread was a little silly regardless of how the game played out, but all I see here is "I expect the Pats win but it's not another steamrolling."  What's wrong with that?  The Pats are better, I'd consider it a decent upset if they lost, but their d-line has been pretty bad and it's hard to see the o-line of the last few weeks flip a switch and run for 250 yards again.  I think the Pats capitalize on a few Luck mistakes better than Denver did and score enough to win fairly comfortably, but I get the apprehension given that this isn't the same inept 25 touches for Richardson Colts we faced earlier and general AFCCG nerves.

I expect them to win, but as you said it's not going to be a steamrolling as it was this season in Indy.  Some things are different.  Indy will have the services of a healthy Dwayne Allen and a healthy Arthur Jones.  Indy's running game is much better than it was when the two teams met last.  Having to defend both Allen and Fleener will be a challenge as Fleener carved them up by himself.  It should be interesting to see how Patricia defends the Colts with a 2 TE set.

 

[DJnVa]

Indy's running game is much better than it was when the two teams met last.

 
No it's not.
 
In the last 4 games, the Indy running backs have 83 carries for 241 yards, or 2.9 ypc.
 
If you take out the 10 carries for 1 yard debacle against Dallas, in the last 3 they are 73 carries for 240 yards, or 3.3 ypc

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
No it's not.
 
In the last 4 games, the Indy running backs have 83 carries for 241 yards, or 2.9 ypc.
 
If you take out the 10 carries for 1 yard debacle against Dallas, in the last 3 they are 73 carries for 240 yards, or 3.3 ypc

Considering they ran 16 times for 19 yards in the game vs. the Patriots, it is better.  Against Denver who had only allowed 79 yards per game and at a 3.7 ypr clip, Indy rushed 28 times for 99 yards. 
 
Edit: yes, I read Denver's rushing stats and not Indy's.  My apologies.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

ESPN stats has Indy rushing 28 times for 99 yards, with 21 coming from Luck on 2 rushes.

Herron was 23 rushes for 63 yards, which is 2.7 ypc.

 

[Stitch01]

Where are you guys seeing it in this thread?  I agree the Ravens thread was a little silly regardless of how the game played out, but all I see here is "I expect the Pats win but it's not another steamrolling."  What's wrong with that?  The Pats are better, I'd consider it a decent upset if they lost, but their d-line has been pretty bad and it's hard to see the o-line of the last few weeks flip a switch and run for 250 yards again.  I think the Pats capitalize on a few Luck mistakes better than Denver did and score enough to win fairly comfortably, but I get the apprehension given that this isn't the same inept 25 touches for Richardson Colts we faced earlier and general AFCCG nerves.

Its certainly not a lock, Indy has the same sort of 20-25% chance give or take that the Ravens did.  Everything you said is probably fair, Im just a little surprised there isnt more confidence given there was pretty heavy (not universal) sentiment about how we were so unlucky to draw the Ravens and how the other two games would have been cakewalks and enow we've swung so far as to have posts around whether we would have been better off rooting for Denver (Ed Hillel gets the last laugh!) last week.  Probably just different posters making the different posts coloring my impression so its all good, but it wouldnt make a lot of sense to me to have bemoaned having to play the Ravens last week and then be worried much about this game.

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

Considering they ran 16 times for 19 yards in the game vs. the Patriots, it is better.  Against Denver who had only allowed 79 yards per game and at a 3.7 ypr clip, Indy rushed 20 times for 88 yards. 

 
Almost a quarter of that was 2 Luck scrambles though.  The RBs ran 25 times for 77 yards, or 3.1 ypc.  Richardson averaged 3.3 ypc this season.

 

[Stitch01]

Herron's upgrade is more regarding usage and in the passing game than in anything else.  Dumping T-Rich has freed up the 10 plays or w/e a game that they were wasting in a futile attempt to get him going and Herron seems more comfortable in the passing game (or Luck seems more comfortable checking down to him rather than YOLOng it down the field). Bradshaw was healthy for most of the first game between the two teams, and he's a better back than Herron.

 

[DJnVa]

Considering they ran 16 times for 19 yards in the game vs. the Patriots, it is better.  Against Denver who had only allowed 79 yards per game and at a 3.7 ypr clip, Indy rushed 20 times for 88 yards. 

 
 
The last 4 games before playing NE earlier this season, the Colts running backs went 86/371, 4.3 ypc
The last 4 games before playing NE RIGHT NOW, the Colts running backs went  83/241, 2.9 ypc
 
In order to get those evens the Colts runners would have had to have 3 more carries yesterday for 130 yards.
 
If you can spin that into saying that, coming into the games, the Colts running game is stronger leading up to this one, you have a future in DC.

 

[genoasalami]

That will be plastered on every wall in the Colts locker room. 

 

[Stitch01]

Good, they can have a laugh after the game as they get ready for the offseason.

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

That will be plastered on every wall in the Colts locker room. 

 
As far as bulletin board material goes, that's pretty weak.  It's just a funny photoshop.  It's not like he's dropping a deuce on a horseshoe or boning a pony.

 

[Zososoxfan]

 
It's not like he's dropping a deuce on a horseshoe or boning a pony.

 
A call to arms for SoSH if there ever was one.

 

[genoasalami]

 
As far as bulletin board material goes, that's pretty weak.  It's just a funny photoshop.  It's not like he's dropping a deuce on a horseshoe or boning a pony.

Internet would crash if he was.

 

[steveluck7]

98.5 reporting that Pagano has already spoken to the Ravens coaching staff and the NFL about the Patriots use of ineligible receivers on Saturday. NFL's answer better have been jst 3 words: "Plays were legal"

 

[tims4wins]

98.5 reporting that Pagano has already spoken to the Ravens coaching staff and the NFL about the Patriots use of ineligible receivers on Saturday. NFL's answer better have been jst 3 words: "Plays were legal"

 
 
Awesome. Already in their heads. This was a one time situation. They ran it 3 times and never again in the game. They won't run it again all year, or maybe ever again under BB. Hope Pagano has them working on it all week.

 

[DJnVa]

So, even though I doubt NE was going to use them this week, Pagano has already spent time on them. Sweet.

 

[Tony C]

I agree with someone up above that the Indy OL was surprisingly strong against Denver. Not quite sure how that happened but, as the Pats know better than anyone, getting players back from injuries can mean a lot. But, in re the Pats, it seems to me there still is little to fear from the Indy running game...especially up the middle. I think the Pats will regularly play with 5 or more DBs (probably using more zone than usual). I think they'll focus less on pass rush than on using Nink and Jones to contain running (Herron can run a bit to the ends, not at all up the middle) and, more importantly, Luck's scrambles. Extra DBs should allow a LB to either blitz or shadow Luck...but in the main I think the Pats hold back, let Luck gain some yardage in front of DBs, and wait for him to throw INTs. I

 

[dcmissle]

98.5 reporting that Pagano has already spoken to the Ravens coaching staff and the NFL about the Patriots use of ineligible receivers on Saturday. NFL's answer better have been jst 3 words: "Plays were legal"

That answer came from the NFL office yesterday around noon. Substitutions were okay and they were properly communicated by the Pats. Where is a picture of a dead horse?

 

[Scriblerus]

That answer came from the NFL office yesterday around noon. Substitutions were okay and they were properly communicated by the Pats. Where is a picture of a dead horse?

 
Brady's riding it in that photoshop above...

 

[soxfan121]

 
This is a "parody" account; not the real Tom Brady.
 
This Tom Brady is verified. Meanwhile, this jackass is named Tom Brady.

 

[soxhop411]

 
This is a "parody" account; not the real Tom Brady.
 
This Tom Brady is verified. Meanwhile, this jackass is named Tom Brady.

???
 
https://www.facebook.com/TomBrady his FB has a blue checkmark