AFC Playoffs into December

[j-man]

after today showing its a good bet u are going to see me white that brady post

Oakland match up well @ denver they beat us 15-12 great o-line can run only q is carr pinkle and will del rio call the dogs off i hope not
i actillilly think Denver could beat KC KC is overrated 1 of there fabbase members said last season he hopes V Miller dies in a car addicnt

the funny thing is Denver needs a new england win tomm

 

[snowmanny]

Denver needing a Patriots win tomorrow is true and funny and I had not thought of that. Please remind everyone you know out there to root for New England.

 

[j-man]

we are upset at MHR broncos Blog half of the fans will still root for balt because we have a rively with NE Blog on the SBN network

http://www.patspulpit.com/ has been great to me that is new england blog on the SBN Network

 

[McBride11]

Denver needing a Patriots win tomorrow is true and funny and I had not thought of that. Please remind everyone you know out there to root for New England.

Steelers fans also rooting for the Pats. Couple of fan bases in anguish tomorrow.

 

[Marciano490]

Well, the Raiders are screwed. They just got the Kardashian Kurse. Hey, @IdiotKicker one of your kind got a/the girl!

http://www.totalprosports.com/2016/12/10/rumors-swirling-about-alleged-affair-between-kim-kardashian-raiders-p-marquette-king/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=fbtpspages&utm_campaign=fb

 

[DJnVa]

Cool playoff scenario simulator:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/nfl-playoff-simulator-every-teams-playoff-picture.html

 

[wilked]

Serve = held

 

[Stitch01]

More then held. They are probably getting homegfield unless they lose to Bryce Petty or Matt Moore

 

[koufax32]

90% likelihood of #1 seed if they go 2-1 with a DEN loss.

 

[H78]

The fact that Oakland may have to play in Houston once again illustrates how dumb NFL playoff seeding is.

It should be the four division winners and two wild cards are in, but seeding should be based on record.

 

[ragnarok725]

The fact that Oakland may have to play in Houston once again illustrates how dumb NFL playoff seeding is.

It should be the four division winners and two wild cards are in, but seeding should be based on record.

Eh, I like that divisions mean something. The shitty divisions rotate over time. It wasn't too long ago that the Seahawks snuck in from the awful NFC West and beat the Saints at home. That was a great story, and a great game. The AFC South is shitty now, but they had a long run of great teams between the Titans and Colts for a long time.

Winning the division should matter. I think one home game makes it matter just enough. It's still really only the best 2 teams getting the byes and the 2nd week home games.

 

[H78]

The division winners, in my scenario, still make the playoffs, but then I want seeding based on record. You shouldn't be rewarded a home game for winning a shitty division while a team that out-performed you all year but was in a tougher division is forced to go on the road.

A totally different thought...

Please, football Gods, let the Patriots simultaneously wrap up the division AND virtually knock the Broncos out of the playoffs next week. That's the closest I'll get to revenge for the mile-long harassment I received from all of the backed up traffic leaving Mile High as I walked home in my Brady jersey from the AFCCG last year.

I love Denver. Love this city. But I HATE the fucking football team.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

With a win next week not only would the Pats wrap up the bye and possibly the #1 seed, but they'd also be able to claim the rare feat of having beaten every AFC opponent in their most recent matchup. In fact, by expunging their 2 game losing streak to the men in orange they would have no losing streak to any team over 1 game and that to only 4 NFC teams (Sea, Phi, GB and Car).

And 3 of those teams have losing streaks to the Pats in Superbowls...

 

[Ralphwiggum]

With a win next week not only would the Pats wrap up the bye and possibly the #1 seed, but they'd also be able to claim the rare feat of having beaten every AFC opponent in their most recent matchup. In fact, by expunging their 2 game losing streak to the men in orange they would have no losing streak to any team over 1 game and that to only 4 NFC teams (Sea, Phi, GB and Car).

And 3 of those teams have losing streaks to the Pats in Superbowls...

I love shit like this. Great stat/fact.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

Then I should add that a win on Sunday would also make Belichick 9-9 vs the Broncos as HC of the Pats and mean that no team has a winning record vs BB's Patriots. (NYG are 3-3 and GBP are 2-2, all others are <.500)

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Yeah, so fuck the Broncos is what you are saying.

Another great fact. Love this team.

 

[tims4wins]

So last year, they lost at the Jets in December in a really hard fought game. This year, they pulled it out.

Last year, they lost at home to Philly in December despite taking a 14-0 lead, due to some awful special teams and turnovers. Last night, it was 16-0, but a very similar script, and they pulled it out.

Last year, they lost in Denver. Let's hope they find a way this year.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

Yeah, so fuck the Broncos is what you are saying.

Another great fact. Love this team.

Yep. That's pretty much what I was saying...

 

[loshjott]

I'm expecting Pittsburgh as the 3 seed and the 5 seed out of the west (KC or Oakland) to win first round games. Pats as #1 seed would have to contend with KC or Oakland at home. Not ideal but everybody's good in the Divisional round, and still better than the 2 seed which would be Steelers then likely on the road at the West winner.

 

[jablo1312]

If the Chiefs and Pats both finish 13-3, the tiebreaker for HFA is better record in common games, correct? If that's the case (and assuming the Pats lose to the Broncs), the teams common opponents are the Jets, Texans, Steelers, and Broncos. So the teams record would be:

-Pats 4-1 (beat Jets 2x, Steelers, Texans, lost to Broncos)
-Chiefs 3-2 (beat Broncos 2x, Jets, lost to Texans and Steelers)

So the Pats win that tiebreaker for HFA.

If the Raiders win out, in this scenario they would tie the Chiefs at 13-3 and lose the tiebreaker as they were swept by the Chiefs.

If the Raiders win out, but not the Chiefs, the Raiders and Patriots common opponents are the Broncos, Ravens, Texans, and Bills. Records:

Patriots (again, assuming a loss to the Broncos): 4-1 (beat Bills 2x, Ravens, Texans, lost to Broncos)
Raiders: 5-0 (swept Broncos, beat Bills, Texans, and Ravens).

It's not like the Raiders winning out is a given, as they have @ San Diego, Indy, and @Denver remaining. But they do still have a path to the 1 seed that doesn't rely on the Pats losing to either Bryce Petty or Matt Moore (if Tannehill is indeed shut down).

So basically, 1 Raiders loss and the Pats game against Denver doesn't matter for their chances of getting the #1 seed as long as they can beat Bryce Petty and Matt Flipping Moore. Just a contingency in case they don't win on the road this week (unless I'm missing something and all of this is wrong).

 

[Marciano490]

Am I reading it wrong, or do you have the Chiefs playing the Broncos 3 times?

 

[jablo1312]

Am I reading it wrong, or do you have the Chiefs playing the Broncos 3 times?

No you were right, meant to say they lost to the Steelers, just edited it.

 

[tims4wins]

If the Chiefs and Pats both finish 13-3, the tiebreaker for HFA is better record in common games, correct? If that's the case (and assuming the Pats lose to the Broncs), the teams common opponents are the Jets, Texans, Steelers, and Broncos. So the teams record would be:

-Pats 4-1 (beat Jets 2x, Steelers, Texans, lost to Broncos)
-Chiefs 3-2 (beat Broncos 2x, Jets, lost to Texans and Steelers)

So the Pats win that tiebreaker for HFA.

If the Raiders win out, in this scenario they would tie the Chiefs at 13-3 and lose the tiebreaker as they were swept by the Chiefs.

If the Raiders win out, but not the Chiefs, the Raiders and Patriots common opponents are the Broncos, Ravens, Texans, and Bills. Records:

Patriots (again, assuming a loss to the Broncos): 4-1 (beat Bills 2x, Ravens, Texans, lost to Broncos)
Raiders: 5-0 (swept Broncos, beat Bills, Texans, and Ravens).

It's not like the Raiders winning out is a given, as they have @ San Diego, Indy, and @Denver remaining. But they do still have a path to the 1 seed that doesn't rely on the Pats losing to either Bryce Petty or Matt Moore (if Tannehill is indeed shut down).

So basically, 1 Raiders loss and the Pats game against Denver doesn't matter for their chances of getting the #1 seed as long as they can beat Bryce Petty and Matt Flipping Moore. Just a contingency in case they don't win on the road this week (unless I'm missing something and all of this is wrong).

Pats lost to the Bills once. So they would be 3-2, actually. So even if they beat Denver and lost one of the last 2, and Oakland won out, and both finished 13-3, Oakland would still be the one seed.

 

[loshjott]

NM, you are right.

 

[Stitch01]

Conference record won't matter. Pats, Chiefs, Raiders all lost to one NFC team and have no non conference games left. If they tie in the standings they'll tie on conference record.

Pats lost to the Bills once. So they would be 3-2, actually. So even if they beat Denver and lost one of the last 2, and Oakland won out, and both finished 13-3, Oakland would still be the one seed.
.
Outside of being off on common opponents by the Buffalo game, he was pretty much saying this, just indicating Denver was the only game the Pats were realistically likely to lose.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Andrew Siciliano ‏@AndrewSiciliano 17m17 minutes ago
Patriots, Chiefs, and Raiders can all wrap up AFC Playoff spots with victories Week 15. No other AFC teams can clinch

Patriots can also wrap up a bye with a win.

 

[Pandemonium67]

Not sure if it's possible, but my ideal scenario is:
- Pats beat the Donkies and Jets
- Donkies beat KC and Oakland to help the Pats clinch the No. 1 seed by week 16
- Pats rest the starters and lose to the Dolphins, which knocks Denver out of the playoffs.

 

[tims4wins]

Donkies don't play Oakland until week 17, so we need Oakland to lose one of the next two games while the Pats win both to clinch the 1 seed

 

[BaseballJones]

Eh, I like that divisions mean something. The shitty divisions rotate over time. It wasn't too long ago that the Seahawks snuck in from the awful NFC West and beat the Saints at home. That was a great story, and a great game. The AFC South is shitty now, but they had a long run of great teams between the Titans and Colts for a long time.

Winning the division should matter. I think one home game makes it matter just enough. It's still really only the best 2 teams getting the byes and the 2nd week home games.

I think in the seed-by-record scenario, winning your division still DOES matter. I mean, a 9-7 team from the South could still make the playoffs as the division winner, while a 10-6 team from a stronger division stays home.

Winning the division, regardless of your record or how strong (or weak) your division is, is an automatic bid to the tournament. For a crummy team in a crummy division, that's a significant reward.

 

[j-man]

Not sure if it's possible, but my ideal scenario is:
- Pats beat the Donkies and Jets
- Donkies beat KC and Oakland to help the Pats clinch the No. 1 seed by week 16
- Pats rest the starters and lose to the Dolphins, which knocks Denver out of the playoffs.

i think miami will lost out or be no better than 9-7 balt will also be no better than 9-7 so a denver win sunday gives the NFL what they wouild crave if den gets by pitt in round 1 a DEN/NE rematch in 4 weeks @ NE so even if Denver loses Sunday i still think goddell will push us in the 6 seed
because while denver has no shot at a repeat it sure can ruin any of the 4 best AFC Teams shot at beating DAL NYG in Hou and if denver gets in that means we will play NE KC OAK and pitt in that order

and u are assume miami wins out which will not happen

while denver is only slight better than ave the facts are rushing simeian to play week 6 kubiak punt wiff and folwer easy td drop are the only reasons denver is 8-5

and ne better score 21-24 pts in the first haif because denver is the best 4th q team in the league it just digs a hole too deep in the first 3 q

u have to get us this week because with CJ comeing back week 16 he is on IRDFR basiclly if u do not win on sunday we might have to sit throuht a chief/cowboy/nyg SB

 

[j-man]

sorry i sound cocky it just without gronk if the ref allow denver to mug and hold your WR it will keep your point total at no higher than 17-24 and that gives denver a shot and + the NFL wants drama they know u will beat NYJ MIA so what u need are TENN and SD wins that way the only way u ddont get homefield is 3 L in a row with 3 Denver wins in a row

 

[RedOctober3829]

sorry i sound cocky it just without gronk if the ref allow denver to mug and hold your WR it will keep your point total at no higher than 17-24 and that gives denver a shot and + the NFL wants drama they know u will beat NYJ MIA so what u need are TENN and SD wins that way the only way u ddont get homefield is 3 L in a row with 3 Denver wins in a row

Without Marshall and Davis the Patriots should be able to run and also use RBs in passing game with much more success than last year.

 

[Marciano490]

J-man - what do you think of Kubiak as your coach next year. Sounds like there are some big names being talked about who might be looking to go back to the NFL or come out of retirement.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

Not to court disaster but I was looking at what would have to happen for the Pats to miss the playoffs (barring an act from the Commisioner's Office)

There are 11 relevant games left giving 2048 possible outcomes (barring ties which would tend to help not hurt the Pats' chances). 7 of those 2048 scenarios would result in the 11-5 Pats going home (0.34%).

1) The Pats would have to lose out to @Den, NYJ and @Mia
2) Miami would have to win out over @Mia and @Buf (plus Wk 17 v NE already included above)
3) Denver would have to win out over @KC and Oak (plus Wk 15 v NE already included above)
4) KC would need to win the West since the only way KC could win a tie-breaking scenario with NE (on common opp)would be if they beat Den, but in that case Den could finish no better than 10-6 and so NE would have at least the final WC.

Given the 7 games defined by conditions 1) through 3), there are 7 ways out of 16 that 4 remaining games that don't include the Pats, Dolphins or Broncos would have to go to fulfil condition 4) having KC win the West.
4a) If KC loses at home to Ten this weekend then KC must win Wk 17 @SD and Oak must win 1 (and only 1) of their 2 games @SD and vs Ind in weeks 15 & 16 respectively.
4b) If KC beats Ten at home Sunday then Oak must win at least 1 of their 2 games @ SD and vs Ind but if Oak wins both then KC must win @ SD in week 17.

All 2041 other scenarios mean NE goes to the playoffs...

 

[Super Nomario]

while denver is only slight better than ave the facts are rushing simeian to play week 6 kubiak punt wiff and folwer easy td drop are the only reasons denver is 8-5

Denver has a couple tough luck close losses, but they also won a game because of a missed FG and won another when they returned the go-ahead extra point for a go-ahead score. Their Pythagorean record (projected record based on points scored / points against, levels out some of these "luck" items) has them at exactly 8.0-5.0.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

If the 4 conditions are met then Mia (11-5) wins the AFC East with a 5-1 Div record over NE's 3-3, KC (either 12-4 or 11-5) wins the AFC West as they'd win any division tie-breaker either because of their HTH sweep of Oak or because neither Oak nor Den can match their 4 division wins unless Oak eliminates Den. Oakland would win a tie-breaker over NE by virtue of either a better conference record (9-3 if they finish 12-4) or by record vs Common Opp (4-1 against Buf, Bal, Hou and Den vs NE 3-2 vs the same). Denver would win any tie-breaker vs NE by virtue of the week 15 HTH win.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Cool toy from 538.

 

[j-man]

Without Marshall and Davis the Patriots should be able to run and also use RBs in passing game with much more success than last year.

u mean danny t and jackson your wheel routes to white lewis scare me and u will have a few open up the middle routes but blomt must get 100 y and 2 td for u to win and u must build a 14-21 pt lead like last week
can someone look up a ser where denver miami and balt are 8-8 who get in or all 3 at 9-7 or den mia 10-6

 

[j-man]

Denver has a couple tough luck close losses, but they also won a game because of a missed FG and won another when they returned the go-ahead extra point for a go-ahead score. Their Pythagorean record (projected record based on points scored / points against, levels out some of these "luck" items) has them at exactly 8.0-5.0.

nice post yes the CAR @ no were lucky games but i think denver gets in FG range in NO for the shot at the win looking back on it wished we wouild had lost the NO Car games if it meant winning the last 2 weeks

 

[Oppo]

u mean danny t and jackson your wheel routes to white lewis scare me and u will have a few open up the middle routes but blomt must get 100 y and 2 td for u to win and u must build a 14-21 pt lead like last week
can someone look up a ser where denver miami and balt are 8-8 who get in or all 3 at 9-7 or den mia 10-6

And how is Denver going to manage to score 20 pts, other than garbage time?

 

[koufax32]

And how is Denver going to manage to score 20 pts, other than garbage time?

By punting frequently.

 

[j-man]

they did aga KC NO 5FG 1 TD OR 4 FG 2 TD'S any early turnovers by brady and or pick 6 early will feed the crowd

and Wait Anderson is a Hometown ref

shouild NE Win yes 70% chance they should but denver is good at playing shitty for 3 q and then turning it on in the 4th q what u have to is what Atl did got at least a FG every drive then turn those 1 haif fg into 2nd haif TD'S i figure 24 pts is denver limit so 27 or 28 should be enough to win if Lynch was starting u plob win by 21+

if simen foot is better he can buy time and throw a lot of alex smith stuff i ex nothing from the run game plob 30-40 yards max

the only change denver has is if they play just like the KC game and keep u no more then 23 pts or 20

i can tell in the first haif if the refs are calling cutblocks and holding on denver every 3 plays then its gonna be a blowout for ne but if they let denver hold your WR and do not call holding on denver once a drive then is a 4-q game

 

[j-man]

J-man - what do you think of Kubiak as your coach next year. Sounds like there are some big names being talked about who might be looking to go back to the NFL or come out of retirement.

Kubiak has at least 1 more season 2 if Denver gets in the playoffs this year

if Elway fires kubiak after this season we were 8-8 and kubiak refused Off staff changes

then the list would be
1 W Phillips
2 A Gase would have to give up plob a 1 and 2 through
maybe Mike Mccharty again would to give up at least a 1
Scott linean dallas OC Jim bob cooter Detroit QB Coach mike mccoy will be fried
or sean peyton NO Coach

elway loves bal teams good on off and def

the dream ser would be Sean peyton with rex ryan as DC but could the Denver fan base handle brees for simean i would love it because brees and peyton are attached at hip could we overwhelm a cap strapped saints with enrough draft picks like our 1234 in 17 12 in 18 i doubt it unless kubs has a health scare again then maybe 2017 is it for kubes

i see Kubiak and Wade only together 2 maybe 3 years max after this season

brees has said he wants to play untill 45 in 2 years will be 39 if peyton would come with then denver could try again in 2020 for a star qb

i mean kubiak is safe for now but a sean peyton rex ryan trio could get denver a ring by 2019

 

[j-man]

i just did the numbers on espn machine

and if MIA DEN BALT lose out and tenn loses to hou Buff is in if tenn beats hou Tenn wouild get a wild card spot
if MIA DEN BALT are all 9-7 den gets in
if MIA DEN are both 10-6 den gets in unlees SD beats KC then miami wouild

Denver holds the cards unlees SD beats KC in week 17

 

[j-man]

but if SD loses to Cle in week 16 then denver holds most tiebreaks for num 6

 

[j-man]

miami never beats denver in a head -to head if both finen 9-7 10-6 11-5 but balt does what u need to root for if u want denver out its beat denver then have the ravens beat philly and a red hot ciny team plus denver loses @ kc or oak

 

[j-man]

if den wins sunday then just need any 1 win in the last 2 games @ kc or OAK

 

[j-man]

if oakland beats san diego and miami wins out denver wouild miss at 11-5

 

[j-man]

but if oakland loses to indy then denver beats miami even at 11-5

 

[j-man]

basiclly for denver they have to win last 2 games no matther what but i do have bad news for denver haters
assume a week 16 loss to pitt
if Balt loses in week 17 to ciny denver only has to win 1 of final 3 games as long as Oak loses to SD or indy