Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)
- Thread starter Imbricus
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We could do this all day but the list of very good to great NBA players who struggled mightily in their first few seasons, especially those who were not lottery types or didn't have all the basic physical tools that teams seek out for a particular role. See Lou Williams for example.
This is not to argue that Edwards is any good or will have a long NBA career. But I am seeing no evidence whatsoever that anyone here has particular insight into what is going on with him besides the fact that he is undersized and needs to shoot well to stick. It would be surprising if anyone has a radically different take than that so I am not sure why him being on the roster is a problem.
Is he costing other players development time and reps? Is he really hurting the team? If so, how? If not, keeping a player with Edwards' potential skills around seems like a good idea in the event that he figures it out sooner rather than later. I don't recall Boston tying up a roster spot unnecessarily so I trust Ainge/Stevens to evaluate Edwards properly but maybe there are reasons to be concerned that these guys are keeping a guy who some feel is clearly not an NBA caliber player.
This is not to argue that Edwards is any good or will have a long NBA career. But I am seeing no evidence whatsoever that anyone here has particular insight into what is going on with him besides the fact that he is undersized and needs to shoot well to stick. It would be surprising if anyone has a radically different take than that so I am not sure why him being on the roster is a problem.
Is he costing other players development time and reps? Is he really hurting the team? If so, how? If not, keeping a player with Edwards' potential skills around seems like a good idea in the event that he figures it out sooner rather than later. I don't recall Boston tying up a roster spot unnecessarily so I trust Ainge/Stevens to evaluate Edwards properly but maybe there are reasons to be concerned that these guys are keeping a guy who some feel is clearly not an NBA caliber player.
Edwards came in for 4 minutes to replace Pritchard who threw the ball away the first 2 times he touched it.
I don't know if Brad clarified his thinking after the game, but to me real time it seemed like a move to settle Pritchard down in his first real NBA struggle.
I kind of doubt Edwards was really part of the rotation plan for the game. After that 4 minutes he never went back in.
In those four minutes, the guy Edwards was trying to guard, the 6’8” SG Mykhailiuk, hit two three pointers. Maybe he gets them against PP too, but Edwards is always going to be a minus defender if he’s defending SGs
If CE's is shooting from 27, 28 feet, probably 38% or 39% minimum. Would be great if he could hit some catch and shoot threes.
CE isn't a park in the corner and shoot guy. Seems like he needs to have his hands on the ball and take 3s all over the court to get himself in rhythm. The thing is to me that he's basically unguardable given the way he shoots and how quick his release is. Of course, right now he doesn't have to be guarded because he's not making anything.
I'm not saying he's going to be in the NBA three years from now but it would be great if a light switch flipped on.
Edwards looks to me like a guy who will go to Europe in a year or two, and will either play himself into another NBA shot in his mid to late 20s or not. Either seems possible. Alternatively (but far less likely), maybe he leaves Boston as salary mtching trade filler and winds up on a bad team where he can get miniytes and figure things out in the NBA.
That seems less of a knock on Edwards than on the coaching staff.
I think Edwards has only one conceivable NBA role and that is as a guy who defends point guards but doesn't run the offense when he is in the game. That means that he is unplayable on many teams and in many lineups, even if he can be an NBA player in the right circumstances.
Haven't played at the Y since I was a kid, the overhead track curved around the corners of the court taking the baseline jumpshot out of the game. I found better places to run.
To add something to the thread, I hope players and coaches are learning something from the first few games -
Coaches - the Theis & TT lineups are best saved for very specific matchups.
Players - Tatum and Brown must demand the ball more *and* should go to the basket more. Getting into the bonus early and the resultant free throws is an important of generating offense, especially for this team
38-39% from Carsen, maybe? it's really tricky with CE because he's capable of creating his own shot and shooting from very deep, which creates gravity. He really could use G-League reps.
I'll just add 38% is what Semi shot last season with better defense and no one was terribly excited about Semi last season. But Semi is strictly catch and shoot.
Semi seems like a decent enough option to have on a bench as a 8 / 9 / 10 guy. But no one's expecting more from him.
BTW, I agree with your point about gravity and CE, which is why I've always been in favor of giving him every chance and then some. As mentioned above, I doubt he'll get enough touches in BOS to pan out here but if he could just string together a few games of decent shooting . . . .
Agreed.
I don't think this is the case, but part of me wonders if he's just trying to avoid offending one of Theis or Thompson. He doesn't want to disrespect the vet with the ring who they just signed and he doesn't want to disrespect the hard working dude with tenure who was great in the playoffs. Maybe he's just waiting for Kemba to come back to force the issue.
Another thing with the 2-big lineup is that it seems to lead small bench units that feature a Teague-Pritchard backcourt. Why do that? If you start Teague instead of the second big, then you can sub Pritchard in for him instead of playing both together.
I can't remember the last time the board was this much in agreement.
Not only is Brad starting the double BIG lineup, he's playing it for huge minutes to start each half. And destroying any kind of advantage of having Tatum/Brown on the floor together.
We're entering Bizarro land
Not only is Brad starting the double BIG lineup, he's playing it for huge minutes to start each half. And destroying any kind of advantage of having Tatum/Brown on the floor together.
We're entering Bizarro land
Given this is a topic if discussion, the Cs have an action they are running where TT and Theis run a double screen handoff at the top of the key with Smart and then one or the other dives to the rim as soon as Smart gets the ball back. It didn't work when they just ran it against the Pistons because TT failed to finish but it did result in a good look.
FYI, I am not defending the lineup - just observing that they are clearly gathering data on whether it can work more than a few minutes.
FYI, I am not defending the lineup - just observing that they are clearly gathering data on whether it can work more than a few minutes.
I'm not sure anyone is saying there is anything wrong with experimenting and running different plays/sets early in the season.
The weird thing isn’t the experimentation. The weird thing is the extended, obstinate experimentation with this specific lineup that doesn’t even have much upside.
I’m sure there is a reason, probably something along these lines. My point is that I can’t find a reason that is good.
If Semi can hit 3s at any type of volume, he could answer 2 of the Celtics biggest questions. I can't believe I'm actually saying this, but I wouldn't mind seeing him get more minutes. I think there are plenty of minutes up for grabs too. I know most would like to see those go to Nesmith but that doesn't appear to be in the cards.
Semi hitting 38% of his 3's on like 6-7 3PA/36 would probably put him in the starting lineup atm. Big if. I'd rather see him than Grant or the 2BL tho.
Semi hitting 38% of his 3's on like 6-7 3PA/36 would probably put him in the starting lineup atm. Big if. I'd rather see him than Grant or the 2BL tho.
Whatever combo of Semi, Nesmith, Javonte, Grant can be your 4th wing on this team.
When you have two first-team All-Stars in Tatum/Brown you just need anyone other than Daniel Theis playing wing. Literally, anyone that can move their feet on the perimeter or hit an open jumper.
I think the 2-big lineup ends in earnest when Kemba is back. I think the only reason it's out there right now is Brad thinks those 5 are his 5 best players. Unfortunately, he's probably right.
For what it's worth, he did swap in Semi for the last few minutes instead of Thompson this afternoon. But until/unless some other player on this team demonstrates some kind of consistent competence, he's going to keep running those 5 out as a unit regularly because they're the best 5 professional basketball players on the team, and he feels he can trust them.
I guess the 5th down the stretch should be whoever has had a decent night and a decent matchup on the floor between PP/Teague/G Williams/Semi.
Why would DET choose to not use their last timeout and advance the ball with 2.9 seconds left? So weird
I just looked it up and if I am understanding the numbers correctly the Theis-Thompson-Tatum-Brown-Smart lineup is a net -22.1 rating in 55 minutes... so, yeah. The defensive rating is 120.
That doesn't include today's performance
BUT -22.1 is really hard to do with how ridiculously efficient Jaylen Brown has been shooting this season
Blake Griffin is almost completely a perimeter player now, and can be defended better by someone like Semi who can move his feet and recover to closeouts.
Turner and Sabonis is where it sort of makes sense.
Any sentence that mentions Kevin Durant and "a lot of muscle" is a sentence that probably wasn't written with too much thought.
The 2 big lineup with A LOT of muscle is Zion and Adams. They aren't surrounded by guys most people would consider elite shooters in Ball, Ingram and Bledsoe. 2 of those guys are questionable shooters, even.
Yet it somehow works.
it works because Stephen Adams and Zion are worlds better than Theis and TT. Zion is athletic enough to play perimeter defense for long stretches. While the C's are throwing 2 Centers on the floor that get lost on perimeter switches and neither can cover a wing for more than 10 seconds.
When the Celtics face them, Zion will torch us for 35pts if DT or TT cover him. I'd much rather see Semi guard Zion
It also doesn't work in the halfcourt. The Pels have been more aggressive about fast break and quick shooting than any time in recent times...but their halfcourt offense isn't very good.
Jaylen himself has a very slight negative net rating, it’s kind of crazy. The only players on the team with positive ones are RW3/Teague/Semi/PP/Tatum.
The starting lineup has played 74 minutes together, with a net rating of -16.1. The next most common five man lineup is PP/Teague/Tatum/Semi/RW3, 21 minutes together with a net rating of +26. So the Tatum+bench lineup is destroying teams again, like last year.
Those are the only two lineups with more than 20 minutes played, but Tatums ability to play with all bench players and wreck other teams is pretty damn sexy.
Tatum+bench plays to Tatum's skillset really really well. The current bench units have better spacing with PP/Semi/Teague, and also play TL, who is the C's best offensive center. Then you add into that Tatum's ability to pull up from 3, against bench players who aren't ready to handle it, and it's a great recipe.
The Celtics best 4-man lineups all have a strong dose of TL/Teague/PP. It's pretty obvious at this point that Brown or Tatum plus spacey 1-center lineups can work really well, and the team needs to double down on that imo.
Brad is wayyyyy overcomplicating this shit. The team is better than expected at PG/SG, so that's handled. You have 96 3/4 minutes--Brown and Tatum can play 70 of those. 26 Semi minutes et voila (this gets even easier when JaVonte and Romeo are back).
The team needs another wing for sure, but 25 mins/game of Semi a) mimics that setup so it's easier to transition when you do get the wing, and b) lets you play a more normal configuration and build better defensive habits, which should be a huge priority right now.
Ahh, I was just watching the replay and it said 1 TO left for DET on the screen. Them not having one makes sense
View: https://twitter.com/WorldWideWob/status/1345860111907090435?s=20
I think the bolded may true in theory, but I don't think it holds any water in reality. If the metrics bare this out, it's probably statistical noise. I've watched quite a few Pelicans games and Zion certainly isn't in game shape, and isn't the close out defender you make him out to be. He's also looked like he's lost a little bounce, unless he's made it a point to be less explosive to save his knees.
View: https://twitter.com/johnhollinger/status/1345721878099451906?s=20
I have been on Brad as much as anyone when game threading, despite being a total stan, for the lack of hustle, lackluster offensive game plan, etc, but for a board that is never slow to point out the volatility in small samples I think it's important we take a step back here. Early returns on C's performance should be weighted appropriately in the context of Brad's normal penchant for playing with every lineup combination there is early on, compounded with the complete outlier of a season this is (bubble, quick turnaround, etc).
Interesting That Brad is playing JT with TL (67 minutes) much more than with JB. I wonder if that's intentional.
One lineup I really like - Teague, Smart, JT, JB, and TL is +66 in 10 minutes.
Neither TT or RWill have any ability to play the 4 so DT is going to have to play 4 unless you want to decrease his or TT's minutes. Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the course of the season if everyone stays healthy.
One lineup I really like - Teague, Smart, JT, JB, and TL is +66 in 10 minutes.
What it gets is that Brad is to playTT 24 MI utes, DT 22 minutes, and RWill 16 mpg. And that is with everyone clamoring for RWill to get more minutes.
Neither TT or RWill have any ability to play the 4 so DT is going to have to play 4 unless you want to decrease his or TT's minutes. Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the course of the season if everyone stays healthy.
Yeah, I’d be totally fine lowering Theis or TT’s minutes, or even rotating planned rest. I don’t think maximizing Theis/TT minutes should be an objective of the coaching staff.
That's because you're a cold-hearted, nerd statistician and don't have to worry about "team chemistry".
You're probably correct but I guess the 2-Big experiment is going to keep going for a while, just to keep everyone happy. I mean who knows - maybe DA promised TT a "substantial role".
Incidentally, they’re already resting TT on back-to-backs, so if they just did that once in awhile for Theis (who probably could use it), there would be zero minutes crunch or broken promises.That's because you're a cold-hearted, nerd statistician and don't have to worry about "team chemistry".
You're probably correct but I guess the 2-Big experiment is going to keep going for a while, just to keep everyone happy. I mean who knows - maybe DA promised TT a "substantial role".
I’m sensitive to team chemistry issues, but this situation seems like an easy one to handle.
Wade, you could be right...Danny promising Klutch that TT would get a starting role and play X minutes, so Tristen retains his value for FA next season would suck but wouldn't shock me.That's because you're a cold-hearted, nerd statistician and don't have to worry about "team chemistry".
You're probably correct but I guess the 2-Big experiment is going to keep going for a while, just to keep everyone happy. I mean who knows - maybe DA promised TT a "substantial role".
Brad guaranteeing X minutes/starting role to Daniel Theis is silly. and I'm a Theis fan. I'm 100% for experimenting with different lineups/players. BUT shoehorning DT into the 4-role this many minutes deserves criticism. Not only because it doesn't work, but there are other rotations/players that could add more value down the road that are being ignored.
Nesmith: I understand people wanting him to play, but if he's not close to being ready, playing him for real minutes now could actually be worse for his development long term. It's best if he learns good habits and learns to make good plays first; otherwise, there's a real chance his confidence could get shot, and his key asset, his shot, goes with it. While formal practice time may be limited during the regular season, there are still other chances for him through informal workouts and shoot-arounds with teammates. For example, there's nothing to stop the myriad of assistants on the coaching staff from organizing workouts with Edwards, Waters, Nesmith and Romeo (when healthy). Nesmith hasn't played any hoops since January, and hasn't had a summer league or pre-season, and some players really benefit from those extra sessions. We need to remember that Nesmith's development is a long term investment that goes well beyond this season.
Theis/Thompson pairing: How much leash do we give Brad here? I personally think the first 20 games are an extended pre-season to a large extent; going 10-10, or, gasp, 8-12 would hardly doom the team's season. And maybe there will be benefit if he can get the pairing to be more effective.
Theis/Thompson pairing: How much leash do we give Brad here? I personally think the first 20 games are an extended pre-season to a large extent; going 10-10, or, gasp, 8-12 would hardly doom the team's season. And maybe there will be benefit if he can get the pairing to be more effective.
Brown 28.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists. Assist rate is at 16.3%, career is 8.6%.
Tatum 24.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists. Assist rate is now at 19.8%. His career rate is 11.2%, last year it was 14.5%.
SSS and all.
Tatum 24.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists. Assist rate is now at 19.8%. His career rate is 11.2%, last year it was 14.5%.
SSS and all.