What do you think the hit rate on non-lottery picks should be?
You also missed Kelly Olynyk, Avery Bradley, E'Twaun Moore, Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe and Rajon Rondo.
Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)
- Thread starter Imbricus
- Start date
You also missed Kelly Olynyk, Avery Bradley, E'Twaun Moore, Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe and Rajon Rondo.
Most of those are older picks and KO was a lottery pick. I said recent non lottery picks and even said the hit rate is terrible and it's probably luck. He has just had a lot of chances recently and for whatever reason, they haven't worked out. With TL and PP working out, he's probably hitting for average the last few years. It doesn't take much. We aren't really in disagreement.
And Moore added no value to the Celtics.
You forget that BOS also had a roster crunch that caused some picks to be cut plus traded a few players. Semi has contributed more than most #37 picks. Kadeem Allen is still in the NBA last I checked. I thought Jabari Bird was going to be good but non-basketball stuff happened. Abdel Nade and Moore are both 2nd round picks and don't forget Avery Bradley was picked at 19.
DA has found solid NBA contributors all over the Board but people seem to ding him because he never got an all-NBA player outside the lottery (cough, GA, cough), but then again, most GMs don't either. BTW, I'd rather have DA running the show than whoever has been running the show in MIL.
And as for TL, I can see why people want to see him starting but I'd prefer to keep bringing off the bench until he can demonstrate he can stay healthy. He should prove to be super useful by playoff time. Do agree that he deserves more minutes.
A few of those guys you mentioned didn't contribute to the C's. I probably didn't make that clear enough in my post. Abdel Nader being a decent basketball player now didn't help the Celtics any. And sure, there are excuses for Desmond Bane, Yabusele and Zizic, but they are still 1st round picks that were wasted. I guess you could argue Zizic brought us back Kyrie.
It's not really a hill I'm willing to die on though because I think most non lottery drafting is luck and PP/TL are going to change that narrative quickly assuming health. I think the last one we had was Rozier and he was flawed and really only gave us a year.
As fun as it is to think about, this sort of idea almost never pans out. All star (and former all ster) players have egos, and coaches understand the importance of stroking that ego so as to not disrupt the clubhouse. It would be awesome though to have a legit scoring threat coming off the bench.
Fair enough on Olynyk, he was all the way up at #13
I'll try again, what do you think the hit rate on non-lottery picks should be?
It's very weird to me to be complaining that maybe he didn't hit on a Yabusele or a Zizic, who kinda needed to be picked to be stashed anyways, when he was smasing his high picks out of the park.
Like complaining a hitter didn't get down a sacrifice bunt in the 6th inning after hitting homers his first two times up.
I'd have to look but in recent years, it has been going up. Probably in large part due to rosters expanding from 12 to 17 in the last decade.
Also, non lottery pick is pretty vague but I'd guess 20-25% depending on your definition of a hit.
However, Kemba might realize that there is a finite-and-not-large amount of wear and tear his body can take. Does he want to be putting in starter minutes, or could he see value in concentrating his production in more limited minute (including at the end of games)? It isn't inconcievable that he would find that an attractive career plan.
If so: Kemba as a Vinnie "microwave" Johnson could solve the scoring drought issues that seem to plague the celts. Especially against 2nd units.
The Celtics are not good enough to mail in the first 18 minutes of a game and then go full operation shutdown for the last 4, even against a bad team.
I don't think its a coincidence that they got creamed against Detroit in the first quarter going with Theis/Thompson, and then make their comeback going with more standard lineups featuring one big at a time. Why would Brad want to make that lineup work? Is there a playoffs matchup that would conceivable call for Theis and Thomspon? Philly maybe? Are we going to put Theis on Giannis and Thompson on Lopez? It just doesn't make sense to me.
My main takeaway from tonight is that Jaylen really is making the leap. First step was the game slowing down, and now he’s learning to control the pace of it himself. Just crazy how he’s built up his tools.
Know the difference between the Celtics and the other top teams in the East? Khris Middleton, Joe Harris, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro. Instead of kicking it out to those guys we’re kicking it out to Marcus Smart and Grant Williams. That’s a problem.
What even is this take? Who is kicking it out? Is the comparison "who is each team's 4th best 3 point shooter"?
Yeah, that's a real head-scratcher. Are the analytics somehow telling the C's staff that the Theis/Thompson lineup makes sense?
Ok, and a quick look through his draft history, leaving out the 3 most recent drafts because it's too early to tell on them, I'd say he's 8 for 17 on his non lottery firsts(Perk, Tony Allen, Delonte, Al, Rondo, Gerald Green, Avery Bradley, Rozier) and 5 for 22 on his second round picks finding useful players (Semi, E'Twaun Moore, Baby, Leon Powe, Ryan Gomes)
So, pretty good.
The take is that this team does not have enough shooting to make it out of the East. When teams play to stop the Jays at the rim, they don’t have a knockdown three point shooter to kick it out to. Hopefully Nesmith turns into one of those guys but I don’t have high hopes that it’ll be any time soon.
Kemba coming back will help. They do need a wing with some size who can hit the 3 regardless of Kemba tho.
Saying they don't have enough shooting is a fine enough argument but somehow the way you have framed it makes it sound like somehow both Jaylen and Jason are driving at the same time and also Kemba doesn't exist? Its just a bit of a disingenuous argument to say Joe Harris or Khris Middleton are the analogues to Grant Williams.
Edit: Adding to that, it would be like watching the Bucks lose and saying "The difference between the Bucks and the other teams in the east are that the Bucks have to kick it out to Donte Divincenzo (career 34%) and Brook Lopez (similar) instead of Jaylen Brown, Tyler Herro, etc etc
Last edited:
This is the year Ainge needs to add a shooter/scorer. And none of that “guys coming back from injury are our deadline acquisitions” GM-speak bullshit. Kemba has a lot to prove and Romeo isn’t going to be that guy this year.
Also, Pritchard missed a couple of shots tonite that I suspect he'll usually make. But until Nesmith cracks the rotation, shooting may continue to be an issue for the C's.
Fair enough. Sloppy way of saying that having guys like Harris and Robinson is so valuable in today’s NBA and the Celtics offense would look a lot better if they had one of them.
Agreed. This team needs another piece, a veteran wing who can hit some shots.
They need an actual knock-down, complementary shooter. They need that guy now. It's been obvious for 2 years, and is the biggest reason I wanted Hayward gone: he isn't that guy, and will always get paid more than that guy because of his other skills, making it impossible to add that guy.
It's going to be tough to find someone available with the play-in, but TPE and future 1st(s) would get it done almost any year if someone like that comes free.
It's going to be tough to find someone available with the play-in, but TPE and future 1st(s) would get it done almost any year if someone like that comes free.
The 2-big shit is completely moronic. It was cute at first, and one game in January doesn't make you or break you, but they need guys to get used to the roles they'll actually be in.
It's even worse because Teague and Pritchard are both totally competent, and so there's less reason to try and steal these extra big minutes.
Jaylen Brown needs to be a focal point on offense more. He just does. He made 3-4 great finds to wide open 3-point shooters that they didn't hit, but regardless, he's justifying very heavy usage.
Marcus can fuck right off taking iso last shots with both Brown and Tatum on the floor.
It's even worse because Teague and Pritchard are both totally competent, and so there's less reason to try and steal these extra big minutes.
Jaylen Brown needs to be a focal point on offense more. He just does. He made 3-4 great finds to wide open 3-point shooters that they didn't hit, but regardless, he's justifying very heavy usage.
Marcus can fuck right off taking iso last shots with both Brown and Tatum on the floor.
I do think it’s a coincidence. Regardless of the lineup, the Celtics played much of last night without energy or force, seemingly believing that a previous winless Pistons team would roll over for them or that their own squad could turn it on when it mattered and seal the victory. This squad isn’t good enough to play that way and win.
Any chance the 2-BIG lineup the Celtics are running out there is clogging up the lane for JayCrew on offense? It would be nice if those two + Smart didn't have to start every game as ISO jump shooters. I read somewhere in preseason Smart was offensively efficient at posting up his man, that's also out the window with TT/Theis combo on the floor
Does any defense need to stay within 8 feet of Daniel Theis or TT on the perimeter?
While Teague or Pritchard would be my cup of tea they could literally play anyone there: Semi, Javonte, Semi, Nesmith and they would be more competent than Theis or TT in this role.
If it's an EGO thing, as some have suggested, then rip one out after 2 minutes.
Brad has unsuccessfully played this lineup ~5X more minutes than any other lineup so far. It's a good thing TT was out against Memphis, so we didn't have to witness a close game there.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2021/lineups/#all_lineups_5-man_
Does any defense need to stay within 8 feet of Daniel Theis or TT on the perimeter?
While Teague or Pritchard would be my cup of tea they could literally play anyone there: Semi, Javonte, Semi, Nesmith and they would be more competent than Theis or TT in this role.
If it's an EGO thing, as some have suggested, then rip one out after 2 minutes.
Brad has unsuccessfully played this lineup ~5X more minutes than any other lineup so far. It's a good thing TT was out against Memphis, so we didn't have to witness a close game there.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2021/lineups/#all_lineups_5-man_
The only thing I can think of is that he doesn't want to relegate one of the guys to third guy off the bench status (for ego/minutes purposes). In the case of only starting one big it would probably be Theis because that's the role he's had for a minute, since Brad has a bit of a vet bias he'd probably go to TT next, and then finally to their arguably best and most important big, Timelord. Given their run of play, I think it should be Theis starting, Timelord as a second unit energy guy, and TT fighting for the leftovers. Brad will come around to this rotation roughly around playoff time, if ever. I fully expect him to keep trotting out the dual big lineup for months because he's low key stubborn and glacially slow to make adjustments that might rock the boat (Hayward starting while rehabbing and Marcus Morris getting inserted and remaining in the starting lineup through the playoff run, being prime examples)
The 5 man groupings data is interesting. Only 6 lineups have a positive net rating so far. Tatum, RW and Teague are in 5 of them. Pritchard is in 4, Brown 3 and Smart 2. Neither Theis or Thompson are in any of them. The Teague/Pritchard combo, which I haven't been a fan of, is in 3 of those 6 positive lineups. The Smart/Brown combo shows up in a number of the least successful lineups.
I think Brad knows this, which is why Edward's saw the court so early last night. Too bad he couldn't build on it.
Outside Big 3, here are Cs 3P shooting %:
Teague = .636
PP = .417
green = .333
Edwards = .333
Semi = .286
Nesmith = .286
GWill = .273
TheIs = .143 (having missed 14 Ina row).
yea, not sure you can glean too much after 9 minutes...my greater point was to compare the minutes usage
good point...ugh, hope you're not right.
TT was gassed playing 26 minutes last night. Watching Mason Plumlee own the Boards in Q4 was pathetic.
Three Centers will naturally get minutes because they will miss games due to injuries + the compressed schedule. Playing the minutes per player game, under the assumption of a fully healthy roster, is amateur hour. It's fine for the playoffs but early in the season to dictate trades* or how happy players will be with their minutes is asinine.
*That's like dealing your #6 starting pitcher in pre-season because the starting 5 have this.
Brad is really overthinking this shit.
Smart/Teague/PP can easily split the 96 PG/SG minutes a night between them.
Give each of the 3 centers rotating nights off or with low minutes.
Play Brown and Tatum 35 mins/game, and fill in the rest with Semi/JaVonte/Grant/Nesmith.
Keep one of Brown and Tatum on the floor always, and ride the shit out of them offensively.
Smart/Teague/PP can easily split the 96 PG/SG minutes a night between them.
Give each of the 3 centers rotating nights off or with low minutes.
Play Brown and Tatum 35 mins/game, and fill in the rest with Semi/JaVonte/Grant/Nesmith.
Keep one of Brown and Tatum on the floor always, and ride the shit out of them offensively.
I'm not at all sweating the 3-3 start. Milwaukee is 3-3. Miami is 2-3. Brooklyn is 3-3. Dallas is 2-3. Denver is 1-4. It's early. Brad is not exactly trying to give games away, but it's clear that he's in the "let's see what I've got here" phase. I figured that after 20 games, they'd be around 10 wins, +/- 2.
What I'm liking so far:
- Jaylen Brown's offense
- Pritchard seems to belong
- Tatum seemingly underperforming and yet he's at 24.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.3 steals
- Teague seems to be useful
- Rob Williams, who needs more floor time
What I'm not liking so far:
- The big man lineup
- Nesmith hardly playing. If this is the "let's see what I've got here" phase, this guy needs more floor time.
- Edwards. I root hard for the guy, but he's not an NBA player.
- Grant Williams seems to be doing very little
What I'm liking so far:
- Jaylen Brown's offense
- Pritchard seems to belong
- Tatum seemingly underperforming and yet he's at 24.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.3 steals
- Teague seems to be useful
- Rob Williams, who needs more floor time
What I'm not liking so far:
- The big man lineup
- Nesmith hardly playing. If this is the "let's see what I've got here" phase, this guy needs more floor time.
- Edwards. I root hard for the guy, but he's not an NBA player.
- Grant Williams seems to be doing very little
I don't know how you couldn't like what Edwards did against MEM.
I don't know what people mean that Edwards isn't a NBA player (other people have expressed this sentiment). Edwards certainly has NBA skills. The Cs see him in practice every day and I'm sure they see those skills. In another universe, Edwards was drafted by someone like SAC who didn't care about winning, was given the green light, and developed the confidence he needed to become a reliable scorer off the bench.
I'm still rooting for him.
I think we’re all rooting for him, but he hasn’t shown one iota of competency in any meaningful minutes. Jimmy from the Somerville Y might have looked good in the fourth quarter against Memphis the other night.
Carsen Edwards isn't really an issue. He's a deep, deep bench player. But is 1 for 3 from 3pt line, in a blowout, really noteworthy?
Last seasons regular-season was bad and his G-League was even worse. Brad gave him as much rope as he'll ever give a rookie. I'd say it's a coin toss he lasts the season (and that's with 3yrs gtd)
And R
He's a sub 6-foot shooting guard who has hit just 30% of his 3 point shots in his professional career (including G league). Our starting point guard is out and he's played just 19 minutes in 6 games, so clearly he isn't impressing all that much in practice. He's going to be telling his grandkids about that one time he hit 8 3s in one quarter in a summer league game, because at this point it's his entire career highlight reel.
Indeed. The 4 EC semifinalists from last season are a combined 9-12. Everybody is excited about the Nets, who are also 3-3. Two dark horse contenders in the west (Dallas, Denver) are a combined 3-7. It's still early, and things will take a lot longer to sort themselves out this season than usual. Even if Kemba comes back as the same hobbled player he was in the bubble, he'll be a huge help to this team. This is the time to experiment and see what does and doesn't work.
I think spacing is an issue - but also speed. Neither one is quick for a four... I have seen enough of the theis/trisitian combination - perhaps brad is working on developing better chemistry between that group for later in the year - but I do suspect it is an issue in managing egos (wasnt this an issue with Morris/T.ro etc two years back).
It also feels like JT is in love with his jump shot right now - but he needs to establish himself getting to the basket. Last night was an terrible display...
The OP said that he didn't like what CE has done this year. CE has basically played in one game and went for 9 point on 8 shots. It was good enough that Brad obviously tried to build on it yesterday.
Understand that CE is short but he also has deep, deep range, which, as plenty of people noted, is the most valuable skill in the NBA right now. He had the misfortune of being drafted on a team that is trying to win.
I don't know if he'll ever be a rotation player but I'm still rooting for him.
Having one NBA skill, even one as important as long distance shooting, isn’t enough to be an NBA player if you are undersized and can’t do anything else at league average, at least.
A player who is supposed to be a plus shooter from three has to actually make some threes when called upon. Edwards hasn’t done that (31% from three career).
If you believe Edwards is an NBA player, what percentage of threes does he need to hit to make up for the points he gives up at the other end?
I think one thing that is overlooked a bit on 3PA % is the difficulty of the shot. If somebody is regularly taking contested 3s and hits 40%, that’s a great shooter. But, someone who is out there to space the floor, and gets completely wide open looks where they have all the time in the world to shoot - they should be able to make 40% or they really shouldn’t be taking those shots. So, while I’d say someone who hits 36-38% on high volume, difficult shots is good, I expect more than that from the Grant/semi/nesmith role on the team
Neither Theis nor TT are valuable enough to cause them to force Stevens’ hand when it comes to the rotations. Doing it for a handful of games at the start of the season is fine; doing it in the playoffs would be a huge indictment of Stevens’ coaching abilities.
I'd say 40% at least, unless he sprouts another NBA skill to offset his garden gnome defensive profile.
Yes. Right now he's Eddie House, if Eddie House couldn't shoot.
I'm not saying cut him, and I 100% understand why they drafted and signed him. I'm saying he's been with the team for a little over a year now, and there is literally 0 evidence of him being a useful player in the NBA, beyond the fact that he is still in the NBA.
Perfect comp. I didn't watch Eddie's whole career very closely, but if Edwards could shoot 40% and do little else, he'd be a useful guy. Come in and park in the corner for 10-15 minutes per game (situationally) and punish teams for clogging the middle. That's a useful guy. But aside from one game in Cleveland last year, we haven't seen that guy. Maybe Danny and Brad have. It's not killing us yet to have him and Tacko warming the end of the bench, but nobody should be heartbroken if he goes with cash to someone for a protected second either.