Are the Patriots Overly Focused on Dollars and the Bottom Line?

mauf

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lambeau said:
I think the problem is not so much Kraft setting a budget as it is BB hating to "overpay", when that is the very nature of free agency. So we get a relative
bargain in LaFell instead of Sanders or James Jones, he no longer sees Mankins and Welker as good value propositions, and rookies are a great value over free
agent guards. Isn't it obvious that Seattle and Denver are being more aggressive in pursuing excellence over value? Percy Harvin and Demarcus Ware do not
represent good value, but the Patriots are lacking in the talent to be competitive.
Seattle has drafted much better than the Pats in recent years. Some portion of that gap can be attributed to drafting earlier (until the past year or two). You can afford to pay Percy Harvin stupid money when your star QB and CB (and several other key contributors) are on rookie contracts.

I'm not deeply familiar with Denver's cap management, but it seems evident they have gone into GFIN mode to a degree that the Pats never have. I've been critical of Kraft and BB for that strategy for a couple of years. Now is a strange time, however, for people to be hopping on that bandwagon -- maybe a key acquisition or two would have put the Pats over the top in 2012 or 2013, but I don't see what the Pats could've done last offseason that would have bridged the gap between what they hopes to be and what they've been so far.

,
 

riboflav

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Was (Not Wasdin) said:
 
Does anyone know how the Pats handle assistant coaches salaries? I seem to recall an article in Forbes or Fortune way back in the early 2000s about the way the Pats did this.  IIRC, it said that BB is a paid a base of $X, and then is given a pool of money to be used on assistants, scouts, etc.  What he doesnt spend, he keeps (hello, "practice management").  The idea was that it allowed the team to lock in the total amount it was paying for its coaching staff, and to pass those headaches (if it is a zero sum game, someone has to lose something for someone else to get something) to BB.  No idea if they still do it this way.   
 
FWIW, this is the way it's done at the high school level in Virginia. 
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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maufman said:
Seattle has drafted much better than the Pats in recent years. Some portion of that gap can be attributed to drafting earlier (until the past year or two). You can afford to pay Percy Harvin stupid money when your star QB and CB (and several other key contributors) are on rookie contracts.

I'm not deeply familiar with Denver's cap management, but it seems evident they have gone into GFIN mode to a degree that the Pats never have. I've been critical of Kraft and BB for that strategy for a couple of years. Now is a strange time, however, for people to be hopping on that bandwagon -- maybe a key acquisition or two would have put the Pats over the top in 2012 or 2013, but I don't see what the Pats could've done last offseason that would have bridged the gap between what they hopes to be and what they've been so far.
I would go even further and say that the notion of any player "putting you over the top" in terms of championship likelihood is very misguided in football. That's a big reason its better to be competitive for many years than to GFIN and mortgage the future.

We had this discussion during the interlude between Talib and Revis when people were upset about the Pats not going into GFIN mode. The chances of any team winning the Super Bowl in today's NFL (from the perspective of pre-season) max out around 15%, and even that number is reserved only for true powerhouse clubs that aren't around every year. There is just too much competition and too much luck involved in terms of on-field events and injuries over the course of a season. Lots of pretty decent teams are probably in the 7%-12% range. So do you want to completely go into GFIN mode, be "championship driven," and improve your chances of winning a Super Bowl from about 10% to 14% for a year or two, when that probably means having your chances subsequently crater toward 0% afterward? Or do you want to consistently have about a 10% chance of winning the Super Bowl for many years? From the perspective of maximizing your expected Super Bowls over a significant period of time, the latter strategy is superior and its not really close. Short term thinking is precisely what you want to avoid in the NFL and the Patriots are very fortunate to have the organizational stability - mainly, a coach and GM who doesn't have to worry about his job - that they don't need to do stupid shit to GFIN, appease the Shanks out there, and mortgage the future just to increase their likelihood of winning a Super Bowl by a whopping 3-4%.
 

riboflav

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And while were at this, can we also stop with whole Welker thing? Who wouldn't take Edelman as a younger, cheaper, less concussed, and dare I say it better football player than Welker?
 
It may not have been BB's intention but no one would trade Edleman for Welker right now. 
 

mauf

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I would go even further and say that the notion of any player "putting you over the top" in terms of championship likelihood is very misguided in football. That's a big reason its better to be competitive for many years than to GFIN and mortgage the future.

We had this discussion during the interlude between Talib and Revis when people were upset about the Pats not going into GFIN mode. The chances of any team winning the Super Bowl in today's NFL (from the perspective of pre-season) max out around 15%, and even that number is reserved only for true powerhouse clubs that aren't around every year. There is just too much competition and too much luck involved in terms of on-field events and injuries over the course of a season. Lots of pretty decent teams are probably in the 7%-12% range. So do you want to completely go into GFIN mode, be "championship driven," and improve your chances of winning a Super Bowl from about 10% to 14% for a year or two, when that probably means having your chances subsequently crater toward 0% afterward? Or do you want to consistently have about a 10% chance of winning the Super Bowl for many years? From the perspective of maximizing your expected Super Bowls over a significant period of time, the latter strategy is superior and its not really close. Short term thinking is precisely what you want to avoid in the NFL and the Patriots are very fortunate to have the organizational stability - mainly, a coach and GM who doesn't have to worry about his job - that they don't need to do stupid shit to GFIN, appease the Shanks out there, and mortgage the future just to increase their likelihood of winning a Super Bowl by a whopping 3-4%.
 
 
I agree that trying to compete every year is generally the right approach in the NFL, but there are exceptions.
 
For example, I suspect (but do not know) that signing Talib, Ware, Sanders, and so on will leave the Broncos' cap in bad shape come 2016. Should they have passed on one or more of those guys so they could have more cap flexibility in Manning's age-40 season? I don't think so.
 
I think the Pats should have followed a similar strategy over the past two years -- not just grabbing an extra player or two, but making lots of deals with backloaded guarantees, signing bonuses, and so on to maximize the short-run success of the team, at the expense of cap armaggedon in 2015 or 2016.
 

soxfan121

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
 
One factual note - the $14.5M is clearly incorrect.  It was probably correct before the season started, but now that the season started and it includes practice squad, injury settlements, IR, and more than the top 51 players, Miquel Benzan estimates that the Pats only have about $9.5M left.  See:  http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/.
 
 
Any thread that discusses the Patriots Salary Cap without a link to Miguel's site is a waste of bandwidth. You simply can't discuss the Cap without Miguel. 
 

Ralphwiggum

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maufman said:
 
 
I agree that trying to compete every year is generally the right approach in the NFL, but there are exceptions.
 
For example, I suspect (but do not know) that signing Talib, Ware, Sanders, and so on will leave the Broncos' cap in bad shape come 2016. Should they have passed on one or more of those guys so they could have more cap flexibility in Manning's age-40 season? I don't think so.
 
I think the Pats should have followed a similar strategy over the past two years -- not just grabbing an extra player or two, but making lots of deals with backloaded guarantees, signing bonuses, and so on to maximize the short-run success of the team, at the expense of cap armaggedon in 2015 or 2016.
 
That's fine, but BB and Kraft have repeatedly stated that they do not subscribe to the fact that there is a "Brady window" and they do not intend for the team to go into the tank once he retires.  So they just were never going to do what you suggest.
 

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Tommy Kelley asked for his effing release, which is why he was cut. It seems like he and Belichick were not getting along, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he let Kelley go because he didn't want another Adalius in the locker room. How anyone put any value to Kelley's words is beyond me. The team is usually in top 10 in cap spending, so this argument is just a load overall. People always seem to look at things outside the spehere of the cap. Hence, when someone like Seymour gets traded, it's all about how Belichick is cheap and wouldn't pay his guys, while completely ignoring that he could only afford one of Wilfork/Seymour in the first place, and Wilfork got the big deal. The Pats also got a first round draft pick. Then people look at Deion Branch and think about 2006, but conveniently leave out that 2007 never would have happened (which a lot of people like to forget, I know) without that. The guy's not perfect as a GM, nobody is, and he's made his fair share of mistakes (I don't understand being cheap on a guy like Sanders when it's a huge need, for example), but the notion that the team is cheap is unfounded and ridiculous, especially given the sustained success of the team.
 

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Ed Hillel said:
Tommy Kelley asked for his effing release, which is why he was cut. It seems like he and Belichick were not getting along, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he let Kelley go because he didn't want another Adalius in the locker room. 
ADT, one of the few high priced free agents they brought in. Didn't work out did it?
It's not about the money it's about the talent. Their drafting and game planning is more of an issue than spending or not spending right now. If Brady doesn't have the weapons he deserves or the line protection he needs it's not just about the money.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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maufman said:
I agree that trying to compete every year is generally the right approach in the NFL, but there are exceptions.
 
For example, I suspect (but do not know) that signing Talib, Ware, Sanders, and so on will leave the Broncos' cap in bad shape come 2016. Should they have passed on one or more of those guys so they could have more cap flexibility in Manning's age-40 season? I don't think so.
 
I think the Pats should have followed a similar strategy over the past two years -- not just grabbing an extra player or two, but making lots of deals with backloaded guarantees, signing bonuses, and so on to maximize the short-run success of the team, at the expense of cap armaggedon in 2015 or 2016.
I agree that these are the situations that justify some kind of short term thinking (when a star QB is at the end of the line) but I still don't think raising your chances of winning a Super Bowl by a few percentage points really ever justifies throwing away multiple years in the future entirely. So I think some adjustment of strategy toward short term resource allocation is optimal but not too much.

I think most people simply cannot wrap their heads around the fact that GFIN additions hardly move the dial in terms of your likelihood of winning a championship. It runs against the narratives that have been inculcated in our brains over decades but is absolutely true.
 

Stitch01

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Kelly got hurt last year trying to play through an injury and then was asked to take a massive paycut this Spring.  That's life under the NFL CBA, but its not surprising that he doesn't have warm and fuzzy feelings for the Patriots.  I understand the emotion, but his words don't carry much weight IMO.
 

mauf

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Ralphwiggum said:
 
That's fine, but BB and Kraft have repeatedly stated that they do not subscribe to the fact that there is a "Brady window" and they do not intend for the team to go into the tank once he retires.  So they just were never going to do what you suggest.
 
 
 
You're right, of course.
 
My point was that I think their strategy was wrong, and thought so at the time. If we are in fact witnessing Brady's collapse, it is at most one year ahead of schedule. The 2012 and (less likely) 2013 teams might have gotten over the top with a modest infusion of talent.
 
I'm just amused to see people belatedly jumping on that bandwagon now. Nothing the Pats might conceivably have done last offseason would have made a difference.
 

Stitch01

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maufman said:
 
 
I agree that trying to compete every year is generally the right approach in the NFL, but there are exceptions.
 
For example, I suspect (but do not know) that signing Talib, Ware, Sanders, and so on will leave the Broncos' cap in bad shape come 2016. Should they have passed on one or more of those guys so they could have more cap flexibility in Manning's age-40 season? I don't think so.
 
I think the Pats should have followed a similar strategy over the past two years -- not just grabbing an extra player or two, but making lots of deals with backloaded guarantees, signing bonuses, and so on to maximize the short-run success of the team, at the expense of cap armaggedon in 2015 or 2016.
Im with MMS on this one, but that's the honest counterargument.  Some moves on the margin to help a contending team (ship a low pick off for Sopoaga to see if they can shore up an obvious weakness, borrowing cap space from next year to pay Revis this year), OK, but I dont want to just throw away multiple seasons post Brady to marginally increase the chances of winning a ring in any single season.  I support the way the Pats have done things.
 

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Stitch01 said:
Kelly got hurt last year trying to play through an injury and then was asked to take a massive paycut this Spring.  That's life under the NFL CBA, but its not surprising that he doesn't have warm and fuzzy feelings for the Patriots.  I understand the emotion, but his words don't carry much weight IMO.
 
Had Kelly remained healthy and played, he would have received all, or most, of his money anyway. The Pats didn't save much money cutting the guy, so it's not like Belichick wanted to cut him, given his level of play. I can somewhat understand Kelly's position, but he also has to know it's a business and he was coming off a major knee injury at an advanced football age.
 

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I don't get the criticism of BB's staff.  Many of the coaches and front office staff he's had over the years are guys who've been hired after working as Graduate Assistants for a few years at college programs who've worked their way up from the bottom within the organization.  Most of the exceptions were colleagues from when he worked under Parcells.  I haven't looked into it much but I'm guessing most NFL coaching staffs are built similarly. 
 
The Pats had a number of coordinators, coaches and front office staff poached over the years.  Imagine how much more turnover there would have been if they had kept signing high-profile mercenaries to fill all those positions every other year.
 

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Jettisoned said:
I don't get the criticism of BB's staff.  Many of the coaches and front office staff he's had over the years are guys who've been hired after working a few years as Graduate Assistants for a few years at college programs who've worked their way up from the bottom within the organization.  Most of the exceptions were colleagues from when he worked under Parcells.  I haven't looked into it much but I'm guessing most NFL coaching staffs are built similarly. 
 
The Pats had a number of coordinators, coaches and front office staff poached over the years.  Imagine how much more turnover there would have been if they had kept signing high-profile mercenaries to fill all those positions every other year.
I think there is something a little different with the Pats, because Belichick is one of the few head coaches who is involved in coaching both sides of the football. Someone like Sean Payton who is pretty focused on the offense usually has an experienced DC and a younger OC.
 

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I haven't read every post, but I think the team is still feeling the effects of the Aaron Hernandez arrest and release on their salary cap.  I think it's a fairly unique situation and that the Patriots have made attempts to spread the impact across a couple of years of their salary.  I'm hopeful that this is the last year where we bear that burden (in terms of roster construction) but I'm not certain. 
 

lambeau

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I do wonder if Belichuick has too much on his plate. He's the Defensive Coordinator, the Capologist, the Personnel Director, and PR Director plus HC and GM.
Rather than being unemotional, I think he gets personal and angry and makes poor decisions when people like Mankins and Welker want to get paid.
The team could afford those guys (plus Sanders), and be better--would Elway ever do that to Manning's favorite guys? It's nuts; too much concentrated power.
 

soxfan121

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lambeau said:
I do wonder if Belichuick has too much on his plate. He's the Defensive Coordinator, the Capologist, the Personnel Director, and PR Director plus HC and GM.
 
Not according the org chart in Foxboro. 
 
Matt Patricia is the Defensive Coordinator. 
Nick Caserio is the Personnel Director. 
Stacey James is the Director of Public Relations. 
Jonathan Kraft is the "Capologist". 
Berj Najarian handles way more of the off-field football stuff than his title implies.
 
I do wonder why, given all the things Belichick DOES control, people need to constantly imply that he runs everything.
 
Or why all the success of the last fifteen years would be even more success if only Belichick did it differently. It's worked pretty well, hasn't it? 
 

Super Nomario

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lambeau said:
I do wonder if Belichuick has too much on his plate. He's the Defensive Coordinator, the Capologist, the Personnel Director, and PR Director plus HC and GM.
Just because Belichick has authority doesn't mean he has too much on his plate. Belichick's position, summarizing from everything I've read over the years (and probably the Holley books in particular), is that the head coach is ultimately responsible / accountable for all this stuff anyway - certainly he can be fired if his GM doesn't stock the team with talent, or his offensive line coach doesn't prepare the team correctly, or the defensive coordinator calls bad plays. Belichick just makes sure he has the authority to change the stuff if he doesn't like it. That doesn't mean he necessarily overrules his DC anymore than anyone else; it just means he can if he wants to.
 
Belichick has said that one of the nice things about being HC is that he doesn't have defined responsibilities. He can work with the OL one day, the secondary the next, and spent the third just shooting the shit with Ernie Adams on the sideline. He can be involved in as macro or micro a level as he wants. Obviously this means grooming assistants so that if he wants to spend a whole week working with the defense, he can be sure the offense will be prepared and coached the way he wants.
 
This is how most of the world works, frankly. At the end of the day someone's accountable for an entire organization.
 
lambeau said:
Rather than being unemotional, I think he gets personal and angry and makes poor decisions when people like Mankins and Welker want to get paid.
The team could afford those guys (plus Sanders), and be better--would Elway ever do that to Manning's favorite guys? It's nuts; too much concentrated power.
This is all speculative, and IMO wrong.
 

8slim

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Ralphwiggum said:
 
But why is "they are more interested in making money than winning" a better explanation than "they made a bunch of mistakes this offseason in player evaluation?"
 
 
Because humans are generally lazy, and it's much easier to believe that if only Authority Figure X "chose" to act a certain way then all would be unicorns and rainbows.  The alternative is to admit that decision making is difficult, prone to failure, and that often success is some parts luck and chance.
 
One can apply this to politics as well.
 

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maufman said:
 
 
 
You're right, of course.
 
My point was that I think their strategy was wrong, and thought so at the time. If we are in fact witnessing Brady's collapse, it is at most one year ahead of schedule. The 2012 and (less likely) 2013 teams might have gotten over the top with a modest infusion of talent.
 
I'm just amused to see people belatedly jumping on that bandwagon now. Nothing the Pats might conceivably have done last offseason would have made a difference.
If we are witnessing Brady's collapse, I sure as hell want a solid team in place for Garoppolo who they used a pretty high pick on rather than have to let strong pieces go for cap reasons and be shitty. The division is winnable with even average QB play.
 
Plus, the Broncos got just one game farther than us last year before getting crushed and people will tell you Talib getting hurt had a big effect on even that. There's just little reason to go all-out in any particular year given how much luck can change things, even if you somehow know Manning would throw 55 TDs.
 

lexrageorge

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Thought question for those advocating GFIN this past offseason:
 
What if the Pats, after finishing f****ing 18-1 in 2007-08, decided to GFIN in that offseason, with the expectation that 2009, 2010, and possibly 2011 would be "cap hell" years.  How do you think that would have worked out?  
 

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soxfan121 said:
Or why all the success of the last fifteen years would be even more success if only Belichick did it differently. It's worked pretty well, hasn't it? 
Of course.  But by that logic we would never second guess what BB has done.  I'm not hearkening back to the dollars point when I say that. 
 
But some of Bill's decisions -- draft picks, trading down in the draft, and not pursuing certain free agents or positions in free agency, for example -- arguably made winning in the playoffs more difficult than it might have otherwise been over the last few years. 
 
That's not to say we shouldn't be incredibly grateful for being able to root for a contending team for the last many years, especially in the salary cap era.  
 

Stitch01

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He's certainly made mistakes and errors in player evaluation that are fair game (Material draft capital on safeties considered reaches/hole at safety.  Material draft capital and an expensive FA at WR/hole at WR.  Jordan Devey being viewed as a good enough solution at guard.  Not much out of free agency the last two offseasons.  Not bringing in a vet on the interior OL if moving Mankins was a possibility)
 
That said, I think a subset of fans underestimates the amount of mistakes even top NFL teams make in those areas, overestimates how much pursuing a specific free agent matters in terms of putting the Pats over the top, and doesn't evaluate those mistakes in the context of having a team that was plenty good enough to contend for the Super Bowl each year from 2010-2013 and probably should have won at least one over that time period with average luck but rather as a team that failed to win a championship, ergo there must be big flaws in the team building process.
 

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Bellycheck is till the man,Tom is still terrific,Kraft is God incarnate....Dante has retired and left us an inferno...

No guards and a too inexperienced center make for a miserably season....Tom IS too old for the shit poor offensive line...

Vince ,Ninkovich and an Orangeman who disappeared in the 1st quarter...What was the game plan...

I am too old to spell out the details of why Josh must be on the ledge...

I am enjoying a month in La BELLE FRANCE...Fuck josh and the stafff ..I dwell no more...
 

mcpickl

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Stitch01 said:
Is 31st in player spending a cash number?  Does it adjust for the fact that the Pats are spending $2MM on Tom Brady's salary this year?  What does it look like if you take total cash compensation to Brady over the life of his contract and pro-rate it over each year?  What have the Pats ranked in player spending over the last five seasons?
 
Its a meaningless, and frankly lazy, stat to put out there without context.
 
Unused cap space can be rolled.  I think its certainly fair to criticize the product they put on the field and whether they should have made different choices under the cap, kept Mankins, signed a DE etc, but being $14MM under the cap at any given point in time tells us exactly zero about willingness to spend.  The Revis dead money and extension points were made earlier.
 
My honest opinion is that this line of criticism is stupid.  Not that it shouldnt be discussed or anything, but I think its silly.
It does not adjust. That number just counts actual cash spent in this league year. It's why I ignore that number, it's worthless.
 
Even though the Patriots gave Tom Brady a 30 million dollar bonus last year, and his cap number includes a total of 12.8M in prorated bonuses for this year, the actual cash spent number only includes his salary for this year of 2 million dollars.
 
That cash spent number will always be low for a team that paid a QB(or other star) a big bonus in recent years. The Lions make that number look even more ridiculous. Even though they're barely under the cap, they're near the bottom of cash spending this year because of previous huge bonuses to Stafford, Johsnon, and Suh.
 

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themuddychicken said:
This isn't the old NFL. The modern salary cap is really simple, with every dollar you spend counting against the cap and any shortage rolling over to the next year. Any attempt to save money on the roster would show up in an ongoing salary cap shortage and would add up year after year. They usually roll over something like $5 million every year (something I've read local media bitch about before), and if $5 million gets rolled into one year and $5 million rolls over into the next year - wait for it - that means they spent the full cap that year.
 
Slightly off topic (maybe), but this is something I have been unsure about since the new cap rules came into play. Is there a limit to how far into the future that rollover goes? If the Patriots spend $5M under the salary cap this year, roll over that $5M to next year, then spend to the "normal" salary cap (or $5M under their real limit due to the rollover), does that $5M then roll over into the next season? If they instead spent the same number (relative to the "normal" cap), would $10M roll over into next season?
 
If that is the way it works, BB may have just decided that the upgrades he could get in FA this year are not worth as much as simply deferring spending until they have to resign guys like Revis, McCourty, Soldier, and Jones in the next couple years. I have no idea if that is/was correct or not, but I don't see it as inherently illogical. 
 

crystalline

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I feel sad that people spend time reading "spending rankings" for NFL teams.


There is a salary cap in the NFL. Good teams spend 100% of the cap. The salary floor is 89%. Teams roll over space from year to year /but that is just accounting/. Complaining that the Pats have cap space is like complaining that your salary is 14,000 too low because you saved 14,000 for retirement this year. Its just moving money around to a later time.
 

dcmissle

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8slim said:
 
Because humans are generally lazy, and it's much easier to believe that if only Authority Figure X "chose" to act a certain way then all would be unicorns and rainbows.  The alternative is to admit that decision making is difficult, prone to failure, and that often success is some parts luck and chance.
 
One can apply this to politics as well.
Because it's red meat that makes for good talk radio. If you say the team has screwed up personnel, that elicits a shoulder shrug or head nod. But if you say the owner is cheap and looking to line his pockets, then you have a real live villain on your hands.

Money does not guarantee success either when thrown at players or dedicated to support staff and infrastructure. As an example of the latter, the Bengals are one of the cheapest outfits out there, with fewer scouts and other resources than maybe every other team. They also have some of the best talent right now.

This line of argument is a shame, both because it is unfair to Kraft (who saved football in NE and has been first class in every respect) and because it is a distraction from the real problem -- this is not a very talented team right now.
 

IdiotKicker

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This team has been two catches away from 5 Super Bowls in 12 years. And we want to talk about how they're cheap? I'm not buying. If David Tyree doesn't paint his fucking Sistine Chapel against us, we aren't even having this conversation.

This team is very good at consistently putting itself in contention for a championship. This year, they are farther away from that. I don't think there's anything to see here.

Now can we please stop this so I don't have to think about David Tyree anymore? Ruined my night more than Brandon Crawford's home run.
 

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maufman said:
 
 
 
You're right, of course.
 
My point was that I think their strategy was wrong, and thought so at the time. If we are in fact witnessing Brady's collapse, it is at most one year ahead of schedule. The 2012 and (less likely) 2013 teams might have gotten over the top with a modest infusion of talent.
 
I'm just amused to see people belatedly jumping on that bandwagon now. Nothing the Pats might conceivably have done last offseason would have made a difference.
Maufman's comment in bold caught my attention yesterday and I got distracted and never came back to it.
 
Do other people here share this view?
 
I do not.  I think that had BB made better decisions this past off season, that the Pats current circumstances and prospects in 2014 would be better, and perhaps materially so.  Volin may have overstepped and been lazy in parts of that column, but he points out several areas of need that the Pats could have addressed and didn't.  And I don't buy that they have no shot of righting the ship at this point, either.
 

soxfan121

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TheoShmeo said:
Maufman's comment in bold caught my attention yesterday and I got distracted and never came back to it.
 
Do other people here share this view?
 
I do not.  I think that had BB made better decisions this past off season, that the Pats current circumstances and prospects in 2014 would be better, and perhaps materially so.  Volin may have overstepped and been lazy in parts of that column, but he points out several areas of need that the Pats could have addressed and didn't.  And I don't buy that they have no shot of righting the ship at this point, either.
 
Please show your work. 
 
I have heard, on talk radio and from other media, that the Patriots "inability" to give Tom Brady weapons is the reason for the offense struggling. And there may be a small element of truth buried in there. 
 
But go back two seasons, to when the defense was historically bad. So they spent a ton of picks and assets to build a defense. Chandler Jones, Hightower, Easley, Revis, Browner, Jaime Collins, new contract for Vince, Tommy Kelly (briefly), etc. 
 
This, after two seasons of bringing in your offensive playmakers (Gronkowski, Hernandez, Vereen, Ridley, Dobson, etc.)
 
Part of team building is resource allocation decisions. You simply cannot do everything you want, every year. 
 
Should the Pats have known Logan Mankins was going to fall off a cliff (giving up NINE sacks and nearly twenty pressures) as a pass blocker? Should they have known Solder was going regress or that Hernandez was gonna murder some people?
 
You can argue they should have but that's an impossible standard to meet, let alone prove. 
 
The bottom line is that winning double-digit games every single season, and making the Conference Championship and/or Super Bowl four times in five seasons DOES NOT HAPPEN ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE NFL. 
 
The Patriots have either won or tied for the division lead for FIFTEEN CONSECUTIVE SEASONS. That is unprecedented, unless your only knowledge of football history is your Madden 2005 team on the Easy-setting. 
 
Criticism is fine, but let's put a little effort into it? Show your work if you want to claim they could have "made better decisions". And if you can't, wonder why you can't and give the guys who have proven - for a decade and a half - that they know what they are doing the benefit of the doubt and then try to learn what they are doing. Maybe that'll help direct the criticism into productive, interesting analysis instead of unfocused whining. 
 
Unfocused whining is the media's job. Don't Shank. No one likes a Shank.
 

dcmissle

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TheoShmeo said:
Maufman's comment in bold caught my attention yesterday and I got distracted and never came back to it.
 
Do other people here share this view?
 
I do not.  I think that had BB made better decisions this past off season, that the Pats current circumstances and prospects in 2014 would be better, and perhaps materially so.  Volin may have overstepped and been lazy in parts of that column, but he points out several areas of need that the Pats could have addressed and didn't.  And I don't buy that they have no shot of righting the ship at this point, either.
I don't share it. Good Lord the Saints were prepared to give Sproles away. Until Philly persuaded them to take a draft pick. And Steve Smith was available, and you just knew he'd come into this season with a chip on his shoulder the size of Plymouth Rock. Two experienced, smart, tough as nails individuals who have performed in the League at a high level for a very long time. There also were veteran linemen and pass rushers to be had for reasonable contracts.

Volin has done the work, in the Globe. They overestimated the talent on this team, pure and simple.
 

amarshal2

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DrewDawg said:
A team that has won more than any other team the last 13 years (and was in the frigging AFC title game last year) suddenly doesn't care about winning.
 
Jesus, this week sucks. Please beat the Bengals.
Lock the thread.

I mean, what's the tin hat theory here? The Pats know the line between spending to lose the super bowl and spending to win it and choose the former? That is insanely stupid and deserves no attention from this community.

Maufman's strategy thought are for a different thread with a different title and OP.
 

TheoShmeo

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soxfan121 said:
 
Please show your work. 
 
I have heard, on talk radio and from other media, that the Patriots "inability" to give Tom Brady weapons is the reason for the offense struggling. And there may be a small element of truth buried in there. 
 
But go back two seasons, to when the defense was historically bad. So they spent a ton of picks and assets to build a defense. Chandler Jones, Hightower, Easley, Revis, Browner, Jaime Collins, new contract for Vince, Tommy Kelly (briefly), etc. 
 
This, after two seasons of bringing in your offensive playmakers (Gronkowski, Hernandez, Vereen, Ridley, Dobson, etc.)
 
Part of team building is resource allocation decisions. You simply cannot do everything you want, every year. 
 
Should the Pats have known Logan Mankins was going to fall off a cliff (giving up NINE sacks and nearly twenty pressures) as a pass blocker? Should they have known Solder was going regress or that Hernandez was gonna murder some people?
 
You can argue they should have but that's an impossible standard to meet, let alone prove. 
 
The bottom line is that winning double-digit games every single season, and making the Conference Championship and/or Super Bowl four times in five seasons DOES NOT HAPPEN ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE NFL. 
 
The Patriots have either won or tied for the division lead for FIFTEEN CONSECUTIVE SEASONS. That is unprecedented, unless your only knowledge of football history is your Madden 2005 team on the Easy-setting. 
 
Criticism is fine, but let's put a little effort into it? Show your work if you want to claim they could have "made better decisions". And if you can't, wonder why you can't and give the guys who have proven - for a decade and a half - that they know what they are doing the benefit of the doubt and then try to learn what they are doing. Maybe that'll help direct the criticism into productive, interesting analysis instead of unfocused whining. 
 
Unfocused whining is the media's job. Don't Shank. No one likes a Shank.
Sigh.  Who doesn't know that the Pats have had enormous success and who isn't incredibly grateful?
 
Reciting their run of success repeatedly as if it's some new concept is unnecessary and proves nothing. 
 
Again, one can criticize individual moves or a series of moves and, shockingly, still fully realize what we have in Bill Belichick and how wonderful this run has been.  I've been a die hard Pats fan since around 1972 and I well appreciate what other eras looked like.
 
As to my work, I cited an article in yesterday's Globe by Volin that makes several of my points and makes them well (in regard to what Bill could have done).
 
That said, I will make a few points here:
 
- I thought that Bill made a mistake last season when he went into the campaign with 3 rookies in the mix at WR.  Sure, Hernandez was a major curve ball, but I thought that he should have obtained a free agent WR or done more to give Tom at least one more proven alternative at WR.  I liked the Amendola move (not that I understood letting Wes go) but saw him as more of a slot guy and as someone who was injury prone, so I thought they needed more, especially on the outside.  Going into this season, I continued to think that they were light at WR.  I was cautiously optimistic about LaFell but he is not a burner and had a penchant for drops in Carolina.  Again, I thought Bill should have done more to arm Tom and still do.  I was NOT confident that Thompkins, Boyce or Dobson would emerge, though I hoped the happy talk I was reading about Thompkins was accurate and that getting past the rookie learning curve would make a difference.
 
- They added Wright late (and at the expense of Mankins), but I was concerned all off season that since Gronk's health was no sure thing and the rest of the existing TEs were simply not good enough, that they hadn't addressed an important need.  Now sure, they did attempt that with Wright, though he was known as a poor blocker in Tampa.  But they did it very late and perhaps part of why we're not seeing much of Wright is that he doesn't yet know the system well enough.
 
- I thought all off season that they should have made it a focus to get a pass rusher on the outside.  The 2013 Pats did not get a lot of pressure on the QB and while I thought that improving the secondary would lead to some coverage sacks, and that getting Mayo back would help, that Bill could have done more at that position.
 
Now sure, of course, with a salary cap you can't do everything.  A lot of these things are easier said than done.  The point about resource allocation is well known and appreciated.  And like others, I applauded the Revis move.  But I don't think it's asking for too much for Bill to have bulked up these three areas or at least some of them.  He might have had to cut a player or two to get there, or made other creative moves.  I don't claim to have a fully baked, all encompassing solution, but that doesn't prevent me (and others) from seeing a few holes and wondering why there wasn't more of an effort to fill them.  Last, I also appreciate that Bill may well have tried and was just unable to get it done.
 

TheoShmeo

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amarshal2 said:
Lock the thread.

I mean, what's the tin hat theory here? The Pats know the line between spending to lose the super bowl and spending to win it and choose the former? That is insanely stupid and deserves no attention from this community.

Maufman's strategy thought are for a different thread with a different title and OP.
As the thread starter, I don't particularly care if this thread is locked.  But I disagree that it should be.  Even if the theory is wrong headed (and I agree that it is), the meme about the Pats' financial drives has been circulating since they traded Mankins and has been repeated by some players and commentators.  Part of what I was hoping to achieve was a cogent rebuttal of something that is out there.  If SoSH isn't going to provide that, who is? 
 
I don't get the "horrors, I disagree with this theory, it's stupid, let's not discuss it" reaction.  As Mel Brooks said as the 10,000 year old man, sometimes it's worth talking about what not to do....
 

SMU_Sox

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I agree that posting a thread about this is useful. I abstain from talk radio and tv aside from football so I hadn't heard this crock yet. I appreciate knowing what kind of dumbassery is going on out there.

That being said Theo, I get why you're getting your balls busted. I think what 121 or others want is you to give the names of free agents who signed elsewhere, what they signed for, and why they would be a better fit on the Pats. It is a pain in the ass, counselor, but think about it this way. If you wanted to prove your argument though that is the best way to do it.
I also believe that for every good free agent you list there will be at least one mediocre or bad one. We had the money, perhaps, to shuffle the bottom of the deck. We probably didn't have the powder to add a huge name. We're going to be looking at the lower-middle end or worse of the FA pool. You miss a lot with those guys. Let's say Bill burned 8m on 3 guys but only 1 worked out. Are we suddenly a much better team now? No.
 

Ralphwiggum

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TheoShmeo said:
As the thread starter, I don't particularly care if this thread is locked.  But I disagree that it should be.  Even if the theory is wrong headed (and I agree that it is), the meme about the Pats' financial drives has been circulating since they traded Mankins and has been repeated by some players and commentators.  Part of what I was hoping to achieve was a cogent rebuttal of something that is out there.  If SoSH isn't going to provide that, who is? 
 
I don't get the "horrors, I disagree with this theory, it's stupid, let's not discuss it" reaction.  As Mel Brooks said as the 10,000 year old man, sometimes it's worth talking about what not to do....
 
Who gives a shit what players and commentators talk about?  Players and commentators talk about shit like Spygate and some still seem to believe that the Pats are somehow taping practices and whatnot.  Players on the Ravens talked about how they thought the blackout at the Super Bowl was orchestrated by the league to try to sap them of momentum and turn the tide towards the 49ers.  In short, many of the players and commentators (particularly former players) are idiots and wasting time worrying about their inane thoughts about stuff that happens in the league is pointless.  It is a brutal league, and the CBA doesn't exactly provide the players with much in the way of job security, and the cap is real whether guys like Felger think it is or not.  So I don't blame Tommy Kelly for viewing it as the Pats being cheap if they started to view his contract as being too expensive for the amount of production he was providing.  Doesn't make it true.  Going all the way back to Lawyer Milloy the Pats have been ruthless when it comes to players who they believed no longer merited their contract.  In fact, one might argue this is one of the key factors in their success over the last 15 years.
 
I think if you are going to make an assertion like this, you have to bring way more to the table then (a) a quote from Tommy Kelly, (b) some speculation about Brady being unhappy about Mankins being gone, (c) a CHB article, and (d) the now thoroughly deconstructed fact that the Pats are 31st in cash outlays.  If that's all you got, then the thread should be locked.
 
And we have provided the cogent rebuttal of the premise.  1.  The cash outlays stat is meaningless for reasons discussed, 2.  why would the coach ever go along with this?, 3.  how could the Pats possibly know where the line is between spending enough to go to 2 super bowls (and lose) and 5 AFC title games, but not win a Super Bowl, 4.  to build off the last point, the Pats success in the last decade flies in the face of the original premise.
 
Start a different thread if you want where we analyze where the Pats went wrong this offseason, if that's what you really want to discuss.  The title and opening post of this thread present a particular point of view that is not worthy of discussion, because there is pretty much zero proof that it is actually happening, and it flies in the face of common sense.  That's why people are reacting the way they are.
 

Stitch01

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dcmissle said:
I don't share it. Good Lord the Saints were prepared to give Sproles away. Until Philly persuaded them to take a draft pick. And Steve Smith was available, and you just knew he'd come into this season with a chip on his shoulder the size of Plymouth Rock. Two experienced, smart, tough as nails individuals who have performed in the League at a high level for a very long time. There also were veteran linemen and pass rushers to be had for reasonable contracts.

Volin has done the work, in the Globe. They overestimated the talent on this team, pure and simple.
How exactly were they supposed to sign Smith?   The Pats had a visit set and he never left Baltimore. 
 
Sproles would be nice, but it would have been a very wierd use of resources to add a pass catching running back this offseason.  Sproles is better than Vereen, obviously, but that position was sort of covered.
 
OL is issue.
 

TheoShmeo

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Ralphwiggum said:
 
Who gives a shit what players and commentators talk about?  Players and commentators talk about shit like Spygate and some still seem to believe that the Pats are somehow taping practices and whatnot.  Players on the Ravens talked about how they thought the blackout at the Super Bowl was orchestrated by the league to try to sap them of momentum and turn the tide towards the 49ers.  In short, many of the players and commentators (particularly former players) are idiots and wasting time worrying about their inane thoughts about stuff that happens in the league is pointless.  It is a brutal league, and the CBA doesn't exactly provide the players with much in the way of job security, and the cap is real whether guys like Felger think it is or not.  So I don't blame Tommy Kelly for viewing it as the Pats being cheap if they started to view his contract as being too expensive for the amount of production he was providing.  Doesn't make it true.  Going all the way back to Lawyer Milloy the Pats have been ruthless when it comes to players who they believed no longer merited their contract.  In fact, one might argue this is one of the key factors in their success over the last 15 years.
 
I think if you are going to make an assertion like this, you have to bring way more to the table then (a) a quote from Tommy Kelly, (b) some speculation about Brady being unhappy about Mankins being gone, (c) a CHB article, and (d) the now thoroughly deconstructed fact that the Pats are 31st in cash outlays.  If that's all you got, then the thread should be locked.
 
And we have provided the cogent rebuttal of the premise.  1.  The cash outlays stat is meaningless for reasons discussed, 2.  why would the coach ever go along with this?, 3.  how could the Pats possibly know where the line is between spending enough to go to 2 super bowls (and lose) and 5 AFC title games, but not win a Super Bowl, 4.  to build off the last point, the Pats success in the last decade flies in the face of the original premise.
 
Start a different thread if you want where we analyze where the Pats went wrong this offseason, if that's what you really want to discuss.  The title and opening post of this thread present a particular point of view that is not worthy of discussion, because there is pretty much zero proof that it is actually happening, and it flies in the face of common sense.  That's why people are reacting the way they are.
Ralph, what I wanted to discuss was the premise in the opening post (wrong headed or not).  Sometimes threads morph into other discussions and that I engaged in them here doesn't negate my original purpose. 
 
As I've said, I agree that the premise is off and just have a different view of what merits conversation than you and others.  This wasn't just a talk radio point.  I agree that none of the sources I brought were compelling, but I also submit that a dull roar along these lines is starting to percolate, and that if the Pats continue to lose, we'll hear more of it.  As you wrote, some cogent rebuttals have already appeared in the thread (and my OP contained some rejoinders, as well).   
 
Before this thread, for example, I didn't understand the cash outlay point and learned something there.  Did everyone here immediately know that the 31st in the league number meant nothing?  I mean, it didn't knock me off my chair but it did cause me to wonder if there was anything to it.  Morevove, I agree that the point about Bill not suffering idiocy from Kraft is a good one...though his salary number has not been disclosed and it's at least possible that they are paying him so much that he's willing to put up with an extraordinary level of nonsense.  And the other points you note were things I already fully appreciated but are still worth making.  
 
SMU, I disagree that one needs to show every alternative when making the point that it would have been advisable to better address certain areas of need.  I do have ideas about who they should have pursued but noting areas in which they seemed to have needs and did nothing in free agency addresses the question that was being asked, at least in my view.  That said, it really isn't the point of this thread and if there is to be further conversation about it, this probably isn't the right place.
 

mauf

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Stitch01 said:
How exactly were they supposed to sign Smith?   The Pats had a visit set and he never left Baltimore. 
 
Sproles would be nice, but it would have been a very wierd use of resources to add a pass catching running back this offseason.  Sproles is better than Vereen, obviously, but that position was sort of covered.
 
OL is issue.
 
Sproles is better than Vereen, but not dramatically so.
 
Vereen would look awfully good in Chip Kelly's system. Sproles wouldn't bring much more than Vereen has to the Patriots.
 
They really need a rich man's Ridley, not a rich man's Vereen. I haven't seen any evidence that an RB like that was available on the cheap.
 

lambeau

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OTC had an interesting take on the Mankins trade.It was an increasingly poor value contract for the team as Mankins performance fell off, with him
being paid at an elite level, but they couldn't cut him due to the guaranteed money. When they heard Incognito was visiting Tampa, they jumped at the
chance that Tampa was "desperate" enough to take Mankins contract off their hands. This makes sense to me in explaining the timing, with the resultant
chaos and lack of readiness to replace him. The financial need was not pressing, but the good business opportunity presented itself. Hindsight is 20-20.
Probably they overestimated the readiness of Devey-Flemming-Cannon. Maybe they underestimated the lack of Scarnecchia and the reduced practice time. It's
partly financial. But it's complicated.

http://overthecap.com/patriots-agree-trade-logan-mankins-buccaneers/
 

mauf

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lambeau said:
OTC had an interesting take on the Mankins trade.It was an increasingly poor value contract for the team as Mankins performance fell off, with him
being paid at an elite level, but they couldn't cut him due to the guaranteed money. When they heard Incognito was visiting Tampa, they jumped at the
chance that Tampa was "desperate" enough to take Mankins contract off their hands. This makes sense to me in explaining the timing, with the resultant
chaos and lack of readiness to replace him. The financial need was not pressing, but the good business opportunity presented itself. Hindsight is 20-20.
Probably they overestimated the readiness of Devey-Flemming-Cannon. Maybe they underestimated the lack of Scarnecchia and the reduced practice time. It's
partly financial. But it's complicated.

http://overthecap.com/patriots-agree-trade-logan-mankins-buccaneers/
 
If I understand this correctly, the majority of the Pats' unused cap space is due to the $6.25mm they freed up by trading Mankins to Tampa. Is that right?
 
If so, that kind of supports my point that the Pats couldn't have done a great deal more last offseason to bolster this year's team, unless you think the money they gave Revis should've been spent elsewhere (and I'm pretty sure no one here said that at the time).
 

Super Nomario

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Nov 5, 2000
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lambeau said:
OTC had an interesting take on the Mankins trade.It was an increasingly poor value contract for the team as Mankins performance fell off, with him
being paid at an elite level, but they couldn't cut him due to the guaranteed money. When they heard Incognito was visiting Tampa, they jumped at the
chance that Tampa was "desperate" enough to take Mankins contract off their hands. This makes sense to me in explaining the timing, with the resultant
chaos and lack of readiness to replace him. The financial need was not pressing, but the good business opportunity presented itself. Hindsight is 20-20.
Probably they overestimated the readiness of Devey-Flemming-Cannon. Maybe they underestimated the lack of Scarnecchia and the reduced practice time. It's
partly financial. But it's complicated.

http://overthecap.com/patriots-agree-trade-logan-mankins-buccaneers/
My understanding is that from a cap perspective trading him or cutting him didn't make any difference (and the linked article doesn't say otherwise). They were able to spread the hit over two years because it was after 6/1, but they would have been able to do that had they cut Mankins as well.