Are the Patriots Overly Focused on Dollars and the Bottom Line?

[lexrageorge]

The overthecap number shows the cap implications for Tampa Bay.  The Patriots paid the bonus money, so they absorb the entire dead money charge that was remaining.  Tampa has no such worries; they are just on the hook for his base salary this season (and future seasons if they keep Mankins through the remainder of his contract, which seems unlikely).  
 
He had both a high salary and a hefty dead money charge, so either way Mankins was going to take up a decent percentage of the salary cap.  By trading him after 6/1, the Pats were able to roll over some of the dead money charge into next season, meanwhile still reducing their cap hit this season.  

 

[Super Nomario]

It's important to consider Revis' contract when thinking about the Pats' current salary cap situation. He signed a two-year, $32 MM contract, but that's structured with his cap hit just $7 MM this year and a whopping $25 MM next year. Even if they cut him, they still owe him $5 MM. I think an extension / re-structure is likely, but rolling over $10 MM or whatever of cap space gives them flexibility to wait. Per overthecap, they're only $3.6 MM under the 2015 cap: http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space

 

[EricFeczko]

So what are we to make of all of this?  Is it an overreaction to a brutal loss?  Or is there some truth to the allegation that BB/Kraft have somehow morphed into Sinden/Jacobs, or that they have always been that and just managed to hide it or manage around it well over the years? 
 
There are obvious counters.  One, the Pats have been wildly successful, and it's convenient now to look for easy excuses.  Two, the recent Revis contract shows that they are willing to spend.  Three, the mantra out of Foxboro has been for years that the Pats spend on the whole roster for depth reasons rather than on just the upper tier.  Four, as some have pointed out, if the Pats want to make money, a good way to do that is to go deep into the post-season, so the connect the dots arguments being made right now are overly simplistic.  Five, the Patriots indeed have spent big on some other contracts -- Amendola and Arrignton, to name a few -- and while the return has not been good, it's unfair to ignore those efforts.  Maybe the problem is that they just aren't good at roster construction, not that they are cheapskates.

Six: anyone who knows Bob Kraft as a person, or even takes a cursory look at his personal history, would see that Bob Kraft bought the patriots because he hated the fact that they were perennial losers playing in a toilet of a stadium.

 

[lexrageorge]

It's important to consider Revis' contract when thinking about the Pats' current salary cap situation. He signed a two-year, $32 MM contract, but that's structured with his cap hit just $7 MM this year and a whopping $25 MM next year. Even if they cut him, they still owe him $5 MM. I think an extension / re-structure is likely, but rolling over $10 MM or whatever of cap space gives them flexibility to wait. Per overthecap, they're only $3.6 MM under the 2015 cap: http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space

My guess is that they will add $7.5M to that by cutting Wilfork come March 1st.  This could also be Mayo's last season here as well. 

 

[Harry Hooper]

Hypothetically, what would happen (salary cap-wise) if the Pats re-acquired Mankins in another trade this season?

 

[mcpickl]

Hypothetically, what would happen (salary cap-wise) if the Pats re-acquired Mankins in another trade this season?

They would just add the prorated portion of his 6.25M salary to the books for this year.
 
If that happened today, they'd add about 4.8M to their cap number.

 

[kolbitr]

My guess is that they will add $7.5M to that by cutting Wilfork come March 1st.  This could also be Mayo's last season here as well. 

 
 
Wait, why do you think this is the case? He is a much-praised and respected player on the team, an acknowledged leader of the defense, and while he hasn't been Patrick Willis, he is a very good linebacker. He will be 29 next year, and it's worth remembering that Tedy Bruschi's best seasons were his 30th and 31st years on this earth. I would be shocked if they decided to dump Jerod Mayo.

 

[wutang112878]

It's important to consider Revis' contract when thinking about the Pats' current salary cap situation. He signed a two-year, $32 MM contract, but that's structured with his cap hit just $7 MM this year and a whopping $25 MM next year. Even if they cut him, they still owe him $5 MM. I think an extension / re-structure is likely, but rolling over $10 MM or whatever of cap space gives them flexibility to wait. Per overthecap, they're only $3.6 MM under the 2015 cap: http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space

 
This is something I think about every game when I see him having plays that are very un-Revis like.  Its difficult to judge his market value right now with the small sample, but lets just say for the sake of argument that he continues to look for top 5 corner compensation but continues at this level of play.  In that scenario his dead money next year would just be $5M (and with the timing of the option I forget if we can designate it a June cut to split it up) so its not crippling on next years cap which is why I think there is a real chance that they just move on.  It seems Bill always thinks long-term about the cap so while the $12M is spread amongst 2 years its still $12M and I've only seen a $12M corner out there for 1 of the games. 
 
What are your thoughts on the value of his play?

 

[lexrageorge]

 
 
Wait, why do you think this is the case? He is a much-praised and respected player on the team, an acknowledged leader of the defense, and while he hasn't been Patrick Willis, he is a very good linebacker. He will be 29 next year, and it's worth remembering that Tedy Bruschi's best seasons were his 30th and 31st years on this earth. I would be shocked if they decided to dump Jerod Mayo.

I said "could be".  He's got a $10M cap number for 2015, and there's a $4M in savings to be had if he's cut.  So he'll need to prove to the coaching staff that he's still worth it.  His play this season has been uneven, but I will admit it's still early, and I could see him stepping up his play as the season goes on. 
 

This is something I think about every game when I see him having plays that are very un-Revis like.  Its difficult to judge his market value right now with the small sample, but lets just say for the sake of argument that he continues to look for top 5 corner compensation but continues at this level of play.  In that scenario his dead money next year would just be $5M (and with the timing of the option I forget if we can designate it a June cut to split it up) so its not crippling on next years cap which is why I think there is a real chance that they just move on.  It seems Bill always thinks long-term about the cap so while the $12M is spread amongst 2 years its still $12M and I've only seen a $12M corner out there for 1 of the games. 
 
What are your thoughts on the value of his play?

 I think Revis has been a lot better than you're giving him credit for.  The entire defense was terrible against KC, and that no doubt contributed to the impressions of Revis.  I do hope his usage pattern changes now that Browner is back and they are playing a team with a top echelon WR next weekend in Green.  Bottom line:  I think it's too early to pass judgment on Revis. 

 

[wutang112878]

 I think Revis has been a lot better than you're giving him credit for.  The entire defense was terrible against KC, and that no doubt contributed to the impressions of Revis.  I do hope his usage pattern changes now that Browner is back and they are playing a team with a top echelon WR next weekend in Green.  Bottom line:  I think it's too early to pass judgment on Revis. 

 
I wish I had seen more of Revis's career but the plays I am thinking of are instances where (and there was a great example vs KC but I dont remember the exact play) where the WR runs a curl and as the WR cuts Revis cant turn the hips and charge at him so he is too far away from the ball to make a play.  Obviously that happens to everyone and I dont have the data to say what % of times that typically happens with Revis over his career but to my eyes it seems that there are more instances where it seems his physical elite play just isnt happening, at least more than I would expect.

 

[Super Nomario]

Interesting series of Tweets from Miguel:
Miguel@PatsCap.Com @patscap  ·  24m 24 minutes ago
(1/3) A little birdie told me (aka @BenVolin) let me know that Danny Amendola has a 500K NLTBE incentive for catches
 

Miguel@PatsCap.Com @patscap  ·  24m 24 minutes ago
(2/3) This means that the Pats entered the season with over 10M in NLTBE incentives that had various chances of being earned.
 

Miguel@PatsCap.Com @patscap  ·  22m 22 minutes ago
(3/3) Number 1 reason for Pats cap space is to account for the NLTBE incentives, not to have a cushion for trading Brady next year.
 
Wilfork in particular has a bunch thanks to his restructure, including $2 MM for playing 70% of snaps (he's at 77% now). I think Vollmer stands to get $2 MM for playing 90% of snaps - he's at 91% now. So what looks like a ton of cap space this year might get partially eaten up by the key vets staying healthy - I'll file that under "good problems to have."

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Isn't that exactly what Jonathan Kraft said like 6 weeks ago?

 

[crystalline]

Now that the deadline is past we can see how they used cap space to spend on trades:

@patscap
Akeem Ayers's 2014 salary is $1,046,796. Pats would be responsible for 10/17ths of it or $615,762. Ayers will be an UFA after this season.
3:31pm - 21 Oct 14

Casillas:
Pats are responsible for 9/17ths of his 2014 salary of $1,100,000 or $582,356.

$1.2M isn't a huge amount but saving some space gave the team flexibility to pick up new guys to fill holes.

 

[Oppo]

For comparison, Tuck would've cost about $3 mil this year and $5.5 next

 

[TheoShmeo]

And I assume they would have room for Randy Moss.
 
http://www.patriots.com/news/blog/article-1/Randy-Moss-might-consider-comeback-for-Brady-Manning/283187e8-2c98-45e7-9086-45be24ec40af
 
If you don't want to click on the link, Moss has again said that he would consider coming back to play with Brady (or Manning).
 
To be clear, I view the chances of the Pats biting being between 0 and 1%. 

 

[Stitch01]

He wouldn't make the roster if he played for free.

 

[crystalline]

I don't know what Moss was like in the locker room, but he was a hell of a fun player to watch, especially in 2007. 
He had incredible body control and hands and he was an incredible athlete.  Just a pleasure to watch him catch balls. 

 

[Stitch01]

He was incredible, but he's caught 45 balls since leaving New England, sat out 2.5 seasons, and is 37.  I wish he had won a ring in SF in '12, but he's been washed up for 4 years now.

 

[Ed Hillel]

It's important to consider Revis' contract when thinking about the Pats' current salary cap situation. He signed a two-year, $32 MM contract, but that's structured with his cap hit just $7 MM this year and a whopping $25 MM next year. Even if they cut him, they still owe him $5 MM. I think an extension / re-structure is likely, but rolling over $10 MM or whatever of cap space gives them flexibility to wait. Per overthecap, they're only $3.6 MM under the 2015 cap: http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space

 
Seeing this caused me to look at the Saints for next year, who are already 20 million over next year's cap and can only save in bulk by cutting Evans (who kind of sucks now, so that's fine, and Cameron Jordan (that will be a big loss). Holy shit, are they fucked.

 

[mauf]

 
Seeing this caused me to look at the Saints for next year, who are already 20 million over next year's cap and can only save in bulk by cutting Evans (who kind of sucks now, so that's fine, and Cameron Jordan (that will be a big loss). Holy shit, are they fucked.

There's no way they go into next season with Brees's cap number at $26.4mm, so I would take that $20mm figure with a grain of salt.

 

[Stitch01]

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4771910/sources-sebastian-vollmers-contract-incentives-changed
 
Relevant to this thread IMO

 

[Super Nomario]

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4771910/sources-sebastian-vollmers-contract-incentives-changed
 
Relevant to this thread IMO

I think this is smart. Last year there was game where Vollmer didn't practice until Friday but still played; you have to think a draconian incentive like 90% was a factor there. 90% is such a high standard that you can end up in situations where a player wants to play but it's detrimental to the team; this alleviates that, and forestalls any concerns on behalf of Vollmer / his agent that the Cannon / tackle rotation thing was to keep him from hitting the incentives.

 

[Stitch01]

Yup, he's at 91.2% and doing this leaves the Pats protected in case of injury or losing the starting job but still lets them rotate Cannon through and rest Vollmer as desired.  I do think its a piece of evidence against the Pats pinching pennies at all costs.

 

[Ed Hillel]

There's no way they go into next season with Brees's cap number at $26.4mm, so I would take that $20mm figure with a grain of salt.

 
I'm not sure it's going to be so easy to alleviate much of that. Brees will be 36 next year; how long are going to extend him that will significantly up his pay over what he's due in base salaries the next couple years (38 million over 2015 and 2016)? Maybe they could do something like 4/80 with 50 guaranteed, but even then they're not saving much, and I'm not sure Brees would take it anyway, given that he's due that 38 million over the next two years.