Brady/Manning XV: AFC Championship Game
- Thread starter Dogman
- Start date
The narrative will build that this Broncos team is a knock off of the Colts team that Manning led to a SB. Emphasis will be placed on a defense that stiffened just enough in the playoffs. Denver's defense did play well today, but there are two problems with the narrative. BB is not deluded enough to believe he can run Blount and Ridley 50 times and come away with a win. And if the Broncos prevail, their SB opponent will in no way resemble the 2006 Chicago Bears.
Denver let them hang around with errors:Ed Hillel said:
Missed a FG: -3 points for Denver
Decker tripped on the KR, then that drive ended with the tip-INT in the end zone: -3 to -7 points for Denver
Decker butter-fingered the Onsides Kick: +3 points for SD
That's a 9 to 13 point swing.
Ferm Sheller said:
Exactly. This Broncos team seems as ripe for the picking right now as they've been all year. Pats are trending upward with their physical play on both sides of the ball and the Broncos seem to be heading in the other direction. I'm not saying the Pats are definitely going to go in there and win, but I really, really like their chances. I think their secondary matches up better than any other team in the AFC and they actually have the running game to limit how long Manning can even be on the field.
Plus, it's Belichick vs. Fox. Also, in the first matchup where Moreno went off, IIRC Siliga wasn't even on the roster and he's been a stud since he's stepped in.
AGAIN: the passing game opened up when Chris Harris went out and the corpse of Quentin Jammer subbed in. Rivers had no open receivers early and took some sacks trying to find them.Ed Hillel said:
Then there was the SAME 5 stupid SD flags that allowed DEN to convert on almost all of their 3rd downs…. I dont know the last time I saw a team make the same mistake 5 times….. If that was cut in half, the game could also be different I think86spike said:
86spike said:
Rivers' pass protection was also porous. He was taking two, three steps and getting nailed. I think that was more due to blocking mishaps by the Chargers (because it was less of an issue in the 4th quarter) than it was a "great" rush by the Broncos.
86spike said:
Again, SD didn't even try to throw until they absolutely had to. This was exactly their game plan from a month ago and it worked then because they had the lead.
I'd try to get as many cover guys out there as possible. Mix it up between 4, 3, and even 2 down linemen. Flood the middle of the field with LBs/Gregory and force Welker and Decker to the boundary. Leave DMC over the top to help on DT and on JT's seam routes.
I agree with being physical with their WRs too. Timing offenses hate bump coverage.
I agree with being physical with their WRs too. Timing offenses hate bump coverage.
Put fucking Collins on Welker. He might get away once in a while but he'll never actually catch the ball.
Out of fear.
Out of fear.
The question asked was "how did SD stay in the game playing so sloppily?"Dogman2 said:
Those things you mention are a part of SD's slop. I was merely pointing out that Denver also had it's share of sloppy shit which is why they didn't pull away.
Is this really debatable? I'm pointing out bad play by Denver. Figure you guys would agree.
86spike said:
They ran the ball on first down every single first down until the fourth quarter, with the exception of maybe one swing pass, and a number of times on second down as well. They were not playing aggressively at all. When they did throw downfield, they had 3-4 drops and Rivers made some shit throws, too. Brady has torched this defense the last few years, and this is still an excellent offense, even without some of the weapons he's had, and he clearly has the best running attack going now that he's had in a very long time. There's probably 60-75 points scored in this game, with good conditions.
That has been SD's scheme all year. Mike McCoy called boatloads of that when he was OC in Denver too. Not sure why anyone found that surprising. They never divert from the rush first attack.Ed Hillel said:
And I totally agree that next week is very likely to be a shoot out.
Per Weather Underground, FWIW the early forecast for next Sunday is similar to today's conditions except less wind.
People always overemphasize the prior week's results during the playoffs. Remember back in 2001, when the Steelers were going to crush the Pats because they were taking the defending champs (Ravens) to the wood shed while the Pats won a crazy game in a snowstorm because of something called the "tuck rule" that no one had heard of before?
Today's game tells us very little. The Broncos found a way to win on a day they didn't have their A-game. That's what good teams do. They'll play better next week.
The reason to be optimistic about the Pats isn't because of Denver's subpar performance, but because the Pats have been strong on both sides of the ball in their past three games. The Broncos are going to be game-planning for a lot of stuff that they weren't worried about when they played in Foxboro two months ago.
Today's game tells us very little. The Broncos found a way to win on a day they didn't have their A-game. That's what good teams do. They'll play better next week.
The reason to be optimistic about the Pats isn't because of Denver's subpar performance, but because the Pats have been strong on both sides of the ball in their past three games. The Broncos are going to be game-planning for a lot of stuff that they weren't worried about when they played in Foxboro two months ago.
Really impressed by the running game yesterday. It's hard to believe these are the Pats, given their wont to pass for so long. I feel confident that they will be able to move the ball and score on Denver. It's the other side of the ball that worries me, and the potential influence of the crowd. It's so important to avoid turnovers and falling behind early, because a carnival atmosphere could soon ensue.
But with Belichick in charge, there's no fear that the proper approach won't be found. I don't know that I'd pick them to win, but they've got a real shot. +7 seems like a good bet to me.
But with Belichick in charge, there's no fear that the proper approach won't be found. I don't know that I'd pick them to win, but they've got a real shot. +7 seems like a good bet to me.
It's no coincidence to me that Hightower and Collins have played well since Siliga got here. It all starts up front and he's getting it done. I'm really happy with his development and even happier that he's signed through next year.
I like the Pats in this one. I think they have an advantage on defense, and a sizable advantage at coach and QB. The only thing that really worries me is seems like Denver gets all the calls at home.
I like the Pats in this one. I think they have an advantage on defense, and a sizable advantage at coach and QB. The only thing that really worries me is seems like Denver gets all the calls at home.
I hate this kind of analysis because it is almost always the case that it goes both ways, and that certainly happened today. San Diego missed a field goal; they dropped an interception on a drive where Denver ended up scoring a TD;they got a penalty to knock them out of field goal range early in the game; they had a broken coverage that allowed the Broncos to convert on 3rd and 17 late; etc. Just those plays alone are a 13 to 17 point swing, and there were others as well, especially numerous penalties by SD.86spike said:
Per usual, both teams made mistakes. The difference was Denver getting the early lead due to good offense on their part and poor offensive gameplanning on SD's part that played right into their hands, imo.
I'm thinking there will be a minimum of 3 brutal calls against the Patriots next week. I don't think think the NFL wants the Patriots to play in the Super Bowl (again) over Peyton Manning and the Broncos. This game will have all the sublety of a WWE match where Bill Polian is the guest referee. I'm not saying the Patriots will lose, but to win, they will have to overcome more than the Broncos, Manning, oxygen depletion and the road game. That is a helluva lot to overcome.
So, overcome it.
So, overcome it.
phragle said:
I think the Pats are playing well but this is way too optimistic IMO. Sizeable advantage on D and at QB? Peyton's playoff struggles aside, Brady didn't look like a world-beater yesterday. The secondary is also still a concern after giving up huge bombs to Indy.
bigsid05 said:
Allow me to retort.
A: Conditions. Wind plus rain equals the worst possible conditions in which to throw the ball. Trust me on this one.
B: Game plan. Indy's strength on defense was their pass rush. Ground game neutralizes that strength. The plan was to run the ball. He wasn't going to put up numbers even in ideal conditions.
C: Situations. We've all been watching Brady since 2001. If you ask me, he made perhaps the best throw of his career on a 7 yard route on a 2nd and 10 late in the game. Check the game thread, as I posted at the time my amazement at the throw. Out route to Amendola that was on a rope, in those conditions, where no one else but Amendola could catch it. Or the deep ball he threw to Amendola on the great play-action call in the second half. This was a game dictated by the conditions and Brady played nearly flawless football.
This is when they are going to miss Gronk. Denver's defense is big upfront but all the LB are on the smallish side (Woodyard is 6' 230 lbs, Trevathan is 6'1" 240, Irving is 6'1" 245), Gronk ate them alive. Our backs are the strength of the offense right now.
Pats really need one of the rookie wideouts for this one. Attack of the flying midgets is fun but theres not going to be much room for error on the road in the altitude against that QB. If one of them plays I'm feeling confident.
I agree with one of the first posts that the matchup of the game is Collins on J. Thomas. He's really become Peyton's security blanket. Limiting him will be huge. I think the Pats can limit Denver to 30 or less. I'm not sure Pats can score much more than 30 without takeaways so really counting on the defense here.
I agree with one of the first posts that the matchup of the game is Collins on J. Thomas. He's really become Peyton's security blanket. Limiting him will be huge. I think the Pats can limit Denver to 30 or less. I'm not sure Pats can score much more than 30 without takeaways so really counting on the defense here.
Norm Siebern said:
The outcome of the game has already been decided by a select group from the commissioners office. They're in a remote location in Colorado, IIRC. The only question is whether Ray Lewis is part the cabal this year.
I'm confident that the Pats D can make enough stops in this one to win it because the Denver D is going to give up at least 30 points. They are not good.
The big thing I noticed during today's game was that San Diego made a lot of mistakes that the Patriots simply will not make. New England isn't going to come out with a broken offensive game plan, they are not going to have a bunch of bad penalties on 3rd down and they are not going to be effected by crowd noise the way Rivers was with the delay of game penalties, the Pats only had two of those all season.
The way our secondary is playing now that everyone is reasonably healthy is a big strength. Talib, Dennard, Ryan and even Arrington have very good ball skills, so a turnover is likely in this game, even against Manning. Having two plus pass-defenders at LB in Collins and Fletcher is also a big help.
The way our secondary is playing now that everyone is reasonably healthy is a big strength. Talib, Dennard, Ryan and even Arrington have very good ball skills, so a turnover is likely in this game, even against Manning. Having two plus pass-defenders at LB in Collins and Fletcher is also a big help.
Look I have as much of an issue with NFL officiating as anyone, but do you really believe the league would instruct officials to favor one team over another? If so, I have two comments:Norm Siebern said:
1. Why bother watching? If the NFL truly wants the Broncos to win it wouldn't be that tough to fix the game via the officials. The Pats have no chance.
2. Why would someone spend time watching a sport if they truly felt this way? I mean, why bother? If I truly believed that the NFL didn't want the Pats to win I can't imagine supporting that sports league by giving them my eyeballs on Sundays.
NFL officiating is incompetent and frustrating but not actively fixing games. This kind of comment is idiotic and drags down the entire level of conversation in here.
http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_24898558/chris-harris-broncos-cornerback-undergo-mri-exam-injuries
Chris Harris knee injury "serious"--"almost certain" not to play against Patriots, per Denver Post staff.
Chris Harris knee injury "serious"--"almost certain" not to play against Patriots, per Denver Post staff.
Norm Siebern said:
No way. Simply no way. The NFL is not the NBA. Screwing with the officiating of the second biggest game of the year with over 50+ million watching and bye week for the media to dissect? Not even Stern has those balls.
Edit - Why the hell would the NFL care who plays in the Super Bowl? People watch the Super Bowl just to watch the super. The effects of what teams are playing are negligible to what they can charge a network or what a network can advertisers.
As for the game itself, I kind of like going into one of these as the underdog for a change. They have their work cut out for them, especially on defense, but it can be done. I think they are going to have to play close to their best game, but they are trending up and seem to have found a little something on both sides of the ball that they like.
I know the Pats attitude of next man up and all of that, but heading into this week I can't help bit agree with the comment upthread about Gronk. You can have Mayo and Vince, give me a healthy Gronk and I would feel so much better about this game.
I know the Pats attitude of next man up and all of that, but heading into this week I can't help bit agree with the comment upthread about Gronk. You can have Mayo and Vince, give me a healthy Gronk and I would feel so much better about this game.
bigsid05 said:
Who said sizable advantage on D? Not me. I said it's an advantage but I didn't say it was sizable.
Brady was great yesterday. His stats were not but he was in complete contol all game.
On those deep balls Luck was able to escape the pass rush by the slimmest of margins. It was both something Luck could probably not do again, and something Manning could never do, never mind in his current state.
Basically what I'm saying is get your head out of the box score, it can be very misleading.
Ed Hillel said:
I'm often guilty of throwing a troll into an otherwise serious post, but I think Brady is better than Manning right now. Manning has much better weapons and stats, but if you just isolate the player I think Brady is better in the playoffs.
Here are Brady's ratings this weekend if the corresponding rushing TDs were instead passing TDs
1 - 91.7
2 - 105.0
3 - 118.0
And here is Manning's rating if that easy interception was not dropped
81.9
Now if those were the lines they actually put up would that change your opinion on how they played? If it does then you're putting too much emphasis on what happened (box score) instead of how they played, the process, what easily could have happened, and what is most likely to happen next time. This isn't really directed at you, Ed.
A bit worried by the TE situation. Last game the Pats had Gronk and DEN was missing Thomas, now the roles are reversed. Granted, Collins looks like he is able to cover JT, but he won't be able to shut him down completely.
Beginning to equalize defensive injuries would be nice for Pats---even with Miller out they are well 'ahead' there sadly.
