Cavalry Candidates

[benhogan]

I tried to look this up and am still confused. One of the reasons the Spurs are trading Poeltl is that they can only offer him the 120% raise so 4 years at 58 million. Poeltl as declined that contract. Is the acquiring team in the same position as the Spurs as far as the contract? If so, doesn't that lower his value and make him a candidate for any team since the acquiring team cannot resign him unless they have cap space?

120% $58M was the extension limit. Here is an article that describes those limits/reasons

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2023/01/17/nbas-extension-rules-could-force-spurs-hand-with-jakob-poeltl-at-the-trade-deadline/?sh=5a9893cf500a

He'd be a UFA and they have the room to pay him. BUT the Spurs may not want to pay him $20M+/yr in free agency since it looks like a multi-year re-build is in the works (Victor luck withstanding)

Sill like the Warrior's odds (or Miami) to land Poeltl ahead of Boston

Very, very outside shot, but maybe Brad/Zarren get creative with the '28 pick swap. For matching purposes, they could add a 3rd team like Utah

Spurs: Pritchard, Gay, turn '28 swap into a Boston '25 lightly protected 1st
Utah: Gallinari
Boston: Poeltl

Depends on how the Spurs (or other teams) value Pritchard and the opportunity to extend him on the cheap this summer.

 

[bosockboy]

Wyc: green light. Get a ring.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/wyc-grousbeck-shares-message-brad-stevens-ahead-nba-trade-deadline?amp

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Wyc: green light. Get a ring.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/wyc-grousbeck-shares-message-brad-stevens-ahead-nba-trade-deadline?amp

So if there is an opportunity to add a legit player who will actually have rotation minutes and allow lesser usage of Tatum and Brown own the stretch, that would be good.

I fear, though, that the Celtics will cough up some value in exchange for someone who, obviously less good than Tatum and Brown, just ends up rotting on the bench behind them as Mazzulla runs them into the ground anyway.

 

[Cellar-Door]

One week from the deadline, Keith Smith with an update on what people are telling him:
https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/2/2/23583058/boston-celtics-buzz-one-week-from-trade-deadline?utm_campaign=celticsblog&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

No real surprises....
No real movement on Poeltl, Celtics can't afford him, he doesn't want a bench role, they mostly were only interested when TL was out and there was a chance he might not return on time.
They are unlikely to trade Pritchard at the deadline, but in the summer is a real chance.
No talks about trading Gallo.
Keeping an eye on Will Barton as a buyout

 

[the moops]

I know the Spurs are a tire fire, but there has gotta be concern that Poeltl is the starting center on the worst defense in league history

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I do think Pritchard is likely being discussed, as he has value...and while it'd hurt to lose him depth-wise you can get by with a Barton-type (or even Snell) for those handful of minutes because they do have three other ballhandlers plus Tatum. I'm a PP fan, but if you are looking at (illustratively) PJ Washington I can believe they'd put PP in the deal.

I'm "team wing" if they are going to add something, so not advocating for PJ specifically (or that they'd win the bidding) but to illustrate if they are targeting above-2nd round type guys PP seems like the guy who would go

 

[chilidawg]

Pritchard would be valuable if he was shooting well, but he's not. I have no idea if Barton has anything in the tank, but he's the type of player we could use.

 

[ifmanis5]

Steve Bulpet posts today that Boston (and Miami) are kicking the tires on Kelly O: https://heavy.com/sports/miami-heat/kelly-olynyk-nba-trade-deadline/
Chris Haynes has also mentioned Barton to Boston possibilities.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Steve Bulpet posts today that Boston (and Miami) are kicking the tires on Kelly O: https://heavy.com/sports/miami-heat/kelly-olynyk-nba-trade-deadline/
Chris Haynes has also mentioned Barton to Boston possibilities.

yeah as that notes, an Olynyk trade is close to impossible for Boston unless they give up a guy high in the rotation, they can't match salaries with anyone else.

 

[the moops]

yeah as that notes, an Olynyk trade is close to impossible for Boston unless they give up a guy high in the rotation, they can't match salaries with anyone else.

I dont think this is true. Gallinari, Pritchard, and any of the other minimum guys (Jackson, Kornet, Griffin, etc.) gets you there

 

[ifmanis5]

I dont think this is true. Gallinari, Pritchard, and any of the other minimum guys (Jackson, Kornet, Griffin, etc.) gets you there

Yup, passes the Trade Machine. There are a couple of combos that work.

 

[benhogan]

I know the Spurs are a tire fire, but there has gotta be concern that Poeltl is the starting center on the worst defense in league history

that is fair. It should probably dampen his value & they should stop asking for two 1sts for a rental

 

[Imbricus]

Celtics Blog says they aren't trading Gallinari. I tend to believe this. It is a bad look, and I've always doubted they would move Gallinari, even if the matching salary piece made sense:

As far as trading Gallinari, one source told CelticsBlog, “Nothing happening there. Let’s just say Brad (Stevens) operates differently from Danny (Ainge). He’s a bit more in-tune with the players and the locker room. The guys all see Gallo busting his tail to get back and it would sting to see him traded after all he’s been through. Moving him for a marginal upgrade isn’t going to happen.”

I guess you could say the operative phrase there is "marginal upgrade," but I still don't see Gallinari being moved even for a Poeltl, unless he wants to be.

 

[Reverend]

Celtics Blog says they aren't trading Gallinari. I tend to believe this. It is a bad look, and I've always doubted they would move Gallinari, even if the matching salary piece made sense:



I guess you could say the operative phrase there is "marginal upgrade," but I still don't see Gallinari being moved even for a Poeltl, unless he wants to be.

Well, unless you can upgrade over, GWill, Brogdon, or White, you’re talking about upgrading the ninth man, right? I agree with all the cases people have made about depth at BIG and wing and also recognize the bench isn’t really linear but positional, but players don’t like imagining they might get injured even though they obviously know it happens, and while I hadn’t thought about it the way that guy out it, I can totally see the team receiving a bad signal from trading DG for someone that far down the bench.

It’s kinda neat hearing about the thought process both of the team and Brad.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I dont think this is true. Gallinari, Pritchard, and any of the other minimum guys (Jackson, Kornet, Griffin, etc.) gets you there

Yeah, I wasn't including Pritchard given how many people have been told they won't trade him. Though even then a 3 for 1 is tough for the Jazz unless they make a couple other moves, they really only have 1 clear cut candidate.

 

[Lazy vs Crazy]

Celtics Blog says they aren't trading Gallinari. I tend to believe this. It is a bad look, and I've always doubted they would move Gallinari, even if the matching salary piece made sense:



I guess you could say the operative phrase there is "marginal upgrade," but I still don't see Gallinari being moved even for a Poeltl, unless he wants to be.

Can't trade him to the Spurs anyhow, they bought him out in the offseason.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Can't trade him to the Spurs anyhow, they bought him out in the offseason.

They can trade him to the Spurs, they didn't buy him out they waived him.
I'm guessing you thought it was a buyout because the Hawks upped his guarantee before trading him to SA, but SA just did a straight release.

 

[lexrageorge]

Can't trade him to the Spurs anyhow, they bought him out in the offseason.

They can trade him to the Spurs, they didn't buy him out they waived him.
I'm guessing you thought it was a buyout because the Hawks upped his guarantee before trading him to SA, but SA just did a straight release.

This keeps getting mentioned, primarily due to some media reports that stated Gallinari cannot be traded to the Spurs, but, as is typical, no mention was made of the reasons why.

The one question is whether the Spurs accepting the upped guarantee in the trade-and-release maneuver could be constituted as a buyout as per some arcane clause of the CBA.

 

[ifmanis5]

View: https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status/1622421181100867584

The Cavs have removed Kevin Love from their rotation, per @ChrisFedor

 

[Euclis20]

View: https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status/1622421181100867584

The Cavs have removed Kevin Love from their rotation, per @ChrisFedor

Love had 12 points and 17 rebounds in 37 minutes in a January 2nd win over Chicago, and since then he's shooting a glacial .288 from the field and .205 from 3. I don't think that he counts as a cavalry candidate (little chance the Cavs trade him to a conference rival, and it seems equally unlikely that they buy him out), but it's surprising to see, at least as someone who hadn't been keeping close tabs on him (and I remember multiple stories since last year about how much of a great influence he is on the young and rising Cavs, and still seemed to be a useful rotation player through the end of CY 2022).

 

[Devizier]

Love had 12 points and 17 rebounds in 37 minutes in a January 2nd win over Chicago, and since then he's shooting a glacial .288 from the field and .205 from 3. I don't think that he counts as a cavalry candidate (little chance the Cavs trade him to a conference rival, and it seems equally unlikely that they buy him out), but it's surprising to see, at least as someone who hadn't been keeping close tabs on him (and I remember multiple stories since last year about how much of a great influence he is on the young and rising Cavs, and still seemed to be a useful rotation player through the end of CY 2022).

The guy seems to have aged one hundred years this season. I'm wondering if he's due for the scalpel soon (or maybe a reunion with Lebron in LA?)

 

[DJnVa]

Brace yourselves...

Kevin Durant To Celtics? Stephen A. Smith Issues Major Report (nesn.com)

 

[jablo1312]

What are the chances that Jaylen would walk away from a SuperMax offer from the Celtics next offseason? Slim, or none? He would need to make All-NBA this or next season to be eligible for it. Seems like he's a slight underdog this season to do so. Luka & Mitchell as 1st team guards, then its Jaylen vs.:

-Steph (missing like 1/3rd the season)
-Shai (feels like a lock for 2nd or 3rd team)
-Dame (ditto)
-Haliburton (huge coming out season + media seems to love him fwiw)
-Ja (tough to say Jaylen would def make it over him)
-Jrue (seems unlikely but a huge last 1/3rd from the Bucks could push him up)

It feels like it will be more difficult to make it next season then this one (Trae having a better season, Booker playing more, Anthony Edwards continuing to level up, plus the chance JB could get hurt)...so if he doesn't make All-NBA in 23 or 24, what do we peg the chances he re-signs in Boston vs. taking a similar financial offer elsewhere? There's a lot of value in taking that risk and keeping him around for 2 more title runs for sure, not advocating trading him, but at the same time it is a risk.

 

[The Social Chair]

I know the Nets have a big antisemitism hole to fill but I'd shocked if that rumor was coming from someone outside Brooklyn. Boston isn't going to blow up the #1 team in the NBA for an injury plagued 34 year old unless Jaylen says he 100% won't resign with Boston.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I know the Nets have a big antisemitism hole to fill but I'd shocked if that rumor was coming from someone outside Brooklyn. Boston isn't going to blow up the #1 team in the NBA for an injury plagued 34 year old unless Jaylen says he 100% won't resign with Boston.

Yeah, this is almost surely a “hey Boston is dangling Jaylen so up your offer” move. Clearly, Brad ain’t trading Jaylen for Durant. I was a proponent of that trade before the season but no chance now.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Cap-wise Celtics pretty much have to add in Smart or White to Jaylen to get to KD's salary.

You could also do Jaylen/Time Lord/Gallo.

Point being, it's tough to sync the value and the salaries on that one especially since Nets don't have a nice "super cheap useful guy" you can plug in to balance out value a bit without adding a lot of salary. Unless, as others noted, Cetlics really think Jaylen is a significant flight risk

edit: was wrong, you could (thanks to the flexibility in matching) get there with PP/Gallo and Jaylen which is easier value-roster wise

 

[DeadlySplitter]

If you want the full conspiracy theory - Jaylen is questionable with non-COVID illness tonight.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

If you want the full conspiracy theory - Jaylen is questionable with non-COVID illness tonight.

You’d have to expect every player who randomly lands on todays injury report who doesn’t play to be involved in trade discussions. I wouldn’t even call it a conspiracy just the way business is now done at the deadline.

 

[The Hideous Locust]

View: https://twitter.com/ClutchPointsApp/status/1622669760352722954?s=20&t=A17-joeVqeumj9UTnUf7Zg

 

[DJnVa]

Brown, Gallinari and a couple of the guys like Jackson and Blake work in the trade machine, but still...

 

[Cellar-Door]

It's a discussion worth having, particularly if you've decided internally you aren't willing to offer the 5/290 extension if he makes All-NBA (very possible, though I think he's not an All-NBA level player)

Pros:
Durant is better at basketball, by a lot, than Jaylen Brown.
Significantly increases the chances you get a ring in the next 2 years.

Cons:
Durant is 34, so you're looking at a short window.
Durant has more injury concerns.

Some of this comes down to non-public information.... what are you willing to pay Jaylen, what feeling do you have about Jaylen's desire to re-sign vs. getting his own team.

 

[jezza1918]

It's a discussion worth having, particularly if you've decided internally you aren't willing to offer the 5/290 extension if he makes All-NBA (very possible, though I think he's not an All-NBA level player)

Pros:
Durant is better at basketball, by a lot, than Jaylen Brown.
Significantly increases the chances you get a ring in the next 2 years.

Cons:
Durant is 34, so you're looking at a short window.
Durant has more injury concerns.

Some of this comes down to non-public information.... what are you willing to pay Jaylen, what feeling do you have about Jaylen's desire to re-sign vs. getting his own team.

Agreed completely from a pure basketball standpoint. From a fan standpoint though, I have to add in to that equation the amount of joy I'd get from watching the homegrown Jay duo win a title compared to the lesser amount of joy I'd get from having KD in for JB. And, IMO, I don't think KD increases our chances of winning enough to outweigh the joy I'd feel if Jay x2 won it together.

To take it a mental step farther, we were blessed with so many titles here over my formative sports years, I am honestly sitting here wondering if I'd rather lose with the the Jays than win with KD (of course, that's far easier to write in early February than it would be to live it when Jaylen misses two huge FTs in game 7

edit: to be clear, the 2nd thought was sarcastic. but I stand by my main point.

 

[ElUno20]

Getting Durant guarantees a title this year. It's a no brainer. Titles are hard to win. Win one and worry about everything else in the summer.

 

[moondog80]

A title with Jaylen would feel a little bit better than a title with KD. But the chances of a title with KD are higher by more than a little bit. Get it done.

 

[the moops]

Cap-wise Celtics pretty much have to add in Smart or White to Jaylen to get to KD's salary.

No you don't.

Brown + roughly 6.5 million gets you there. Actually looks like Brown + Gallo gets you there

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Why would the Nets do this? They just signed KD to 3 more years, and Jaylen could walk on them probably much easier than he would with us? I mean, I suppose if they are looking to just clear salary and blow the whole thing up, it makes sense, but it doesn't make them better or closer to winning a title, puts KD in their same conference, etc....

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

Seems like nothing more than Stephen A. stirring up the shit to me.

 

[The Mort Report]

I think if the C's were seriously interested in KD, a deal would have been done this summer. Now while JB's sometimes lackadaisical ball security can drive me nuts, he has taken a step forward and is more valuable now, while KD is hurt. Plus the picks the team will obviously have to give up hindering future roster construction. Unless JB has privately asked to be traded, I don't see how now is much different than the summer

 

[nattysez]

Why would the Nets do this? They just signed KD to 3 more years, and Jaylen could walk on them probably much easier than he would with us? I mean, I suppose if they are looking to just clear salary and blow the whole thing up, it makes sense, but it doesn't make them better or closer to winning a title, puts KD in their same conference, etc....

The only reason they'd do it is if KD learned his lesson and quietly asked to be traded once it became clear Kyrie was out.

The Nets are going to want something like Jaylen and Gallo plus Boston's 2023, 2025 and 2027 first-rounders, possibly with some pick swaps mixed in.

 

[moondog80]

The Nets are going to want something like Jaylen and Gallo plus Boston's 2023, 2025 and 2027 first-rounders, possibly with some pick swaps mixed in.

They can want it all they want. They won't get it.

If the Nets are in a position where they are trading KD, they will not get a piece better than Jaylen Brown.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think if the C's were seriously interested in KD, a deal would have been done this summer. Now while JB's sometimes lackadaisical ball security can drive me nuts, he has taken a step forward and is more valuable now, while KD is hurt. Plus the picks the team will obviously have to give up hindering future roster construction. Unless JB has privately asked to be traded, I don't see how now is much different than the summer

The Nets weren't willing to trade KD this summer, which is the big difference. But they've also lost some leverage with the Kyrie disaster and KD's injury, the latter of which is why I don't think Brad would be interested.

 

[ifmanis5]

What are the advanced metrics on SAS 'hearing things' claims? I'd guess negative RAPTOR on those takes.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Why would the Nets do this? They just signed KD to 3 more years, and Jaylen could walk on them probably much easier than he would with us? I mean, I suppose if they are looking to just clear salary and blow the whole thing up, it makes sense, but it doesn't make them better or closer to winning a title, puts KD in their same conference, etc....

I would guess they think that 1 less year guaranteed of Jaylen is a risk worth taking, especially if they're willing to offer him the huge extension if he makes All-NBA (which he likely would if they ran the offense through him in BKN).

I think if the C's were seriously interested in KD, a deal would have been done this summer. Now while JB's sometimes lackadaisical ball security can drive me nuts, he has taken a step forward and is more valuable now, while KD is hurt. Plus the picks the team will obviously have to give up hindering future roster construction. Unless JB has privately asked to be traded, I don't see how now is much different than the summer

The Nets were looking to win a title, Kyrie probably blew that up, KD didn't get traded in the Summer because BKN set the price so high, might be willing to circle back now that Kyrie is gone and see what the offers are.

They can want it all they want. They won't get it.

If the Nets are in a position where they are trading KD, they will not get a piece better than Jaylen Brown.

Probably not, but they can get a better package than just Jaylen and filler. Depends where they fall on Jaylen. PHX can offer Bridges/Johnson plus, TOR can offer some combination of Siakam/Anunoby/Barnes, Jaylen is probably the best guy of those, but depending how you do your valuations it's close, and those secondary pieces are good.

What are the advanced metrics on SAS 'hearing things' claims? I'd guess negative RAPTOR on those takes.

I mean, I'm 100% certain Brad put a call in, 29 GMs put a call in, as they should, you need to see if Durant is available and at what price, he's a top 5 player in the NBA.

 

[slamminsammya]

Legitimate question - factoring in KD's injury risk as he sits out for yet another leg injury, does he even increase the Celtics' championship odds assuming a JB for KD straight up swap?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Legitimate question - factoring in KD's injury risk as he sits out for yet another leg injury, does he even increase the Celtics' championship odds assuming a JB for KD straight up swap?

yes? If he's healthy he's a top 5 player, he's probably better than Tatum, he's a LOT better than Jaylen, and that's continued even when he's had injuries. If KD is on the court in the playoffs the Celtics would be huge favorites. And he's played in the playoffs, even if he sits out here and there in the regular season.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Legitimate question - factoring in KD's injury risk as he sits out for yet another leg injury, does he even increase the Celtics' championship odds assuming a JB for KD straight up swap?

The other factor is maybe Brad does not want to SuperMax Jaylen in which you sign up for the Durant swap by 8pm tonight.

 

[The Mort Report]

The Nets weren't willing to trade KD this summer, which is the big difference. But they've also lost some leverage with the Kyrie disaster and KD's injury, the latter of which is why I don't think Brad would be interested.

They also don't have to trade him at the deadline because of his contract. Their asking price would be stupid right now, basically either meet this insane offer or no deal, then figure it out in the summer

 

[moondog80]

They also don't have to trade him at the deadline because of his contract. Their asking price would be stupid right now, basically either meet this insane offer or no deal, then figure it out in the summer

Trade value goes down this summer, I'd think. KD isn't young and you're removing one of the shots at a title he would bring.

 

[bosockboy]

This really dovetails with the offense stagnating with Tatum off the floor. Brad might want an alpha on the floor at all times and keep Tatum fresh down the stretch.

 

[lovegtm]

I'm getting more and more behind trading Jaylen. His value around the league is perceived as high, but he simply can't raise an offense's floor the way you need a 2nd star to be able to do. (Unless the 2nd star is a DPOY Draymond type.)

Is Jaylen for KD the way to go? Who knows whether it's even available. However, I'd prefer to pay some lead dog scorer than to pay Jaylen 60M/yr, from a "roster construction with Tatum" perspective.

Brad Stevens seems pretty ruthless in filling out the roster for a title shot, so we'll see how he has evaluated this.