I signed up for the Durant/Jaylen swap last year and I’m signing up again with Jaylen looking like a SuperMax qualifier. I just don’t see Brad wanting to go that route for a second banana.
It’s Jaylen being added to tonight’s injury report that lit the fire for me anyway. There may be other talks around the league starting up now that the Kyrie move has taken place. Not sure who else Jaylen could be involved with but the timing of his “illness” is curious anyway.
Right, I am just trying to gauge the odds he misses significant playoff time which I think basically ends any title hopes we would have.
Unless there is something that isn't being reported, a non-surgical MCL sprain would not give me any long term pause re: KD.
Probably not significantly higher than any other player without a degenerative injury. His current injury is one any player would have suffered in the same situation, just got rolled into.
Any elevated chance of re-aggravation? It’s been about a month so he should be back after the all-star break or around then, no?
Really? He is 34 and has had in the past few years: Calf strain, torn achilles, hamstring strain, 2x mcl sprains.
I’d sign up for a Jaylen for Durant swap in a heartbeat too as it would let me go back to rooting for the Celtics. I’m not sure how involving Dallas would help though. The Celtics cannot get around needing to send out enough salary to match. I suppose Dallas or another third team could help as a destination for players we need to send out that the Nets might not want, but that’s about it. To match Durant, Jaylen, Gallinari, Jackson, and Blake is enough. There’s no realistic way to add Finney Smith unless it’s to balance a situation where the Nets are demanding we include Smart or White.
The Nets have to be looking to add defense and some frontcourt toughness. I’d throw Grant into that deal as he’s another guy Brad may not wish to pay long term. Of course all of this is unlikely.
If you add Grant and two of Hauser, Pritchard, or Kornet you could expand to include DFS (technically it would need to be two separate trades but can still work). Of course, that’s not realistic because the Celtics would have like 9 active players following that trade. In other words, if the Celtics trade for Durant that’s probably it other than maybe trying to trade for someone who fits the Schroeder TPE and shopping in the buyout market.
MCL partial tears scar down pretty reliably, I wouldn't be too concerned.
That's the NBA, one catastrophic injury and a couple small ones none particularly related and none chronic. Doesn't make him that much more likely to be injured in the playoffs. If the question is who will play more games overall... Yeah I take the younger guy. But nothing in Durant's injury history is concerning enough to not trade for him
Yup. KD for JB is trending on Twitter but the only source is SAS' announcement. No other confirmations. And all the replies from Celtics fans is 'please God do not do this.'
Would you comfortably pay Jaylen 5/$290m this summer? This is what it boils down to in the end. I like Jaylen too, shit I was one of the few who loved the pick that night of the draft…….but he may immediately be one of the worst contracts in the league as a second banana for us.
If anything, it makes more sense to me now, as the price is probably down AND Brooklyn would be more willing to add in some role players (love Curry as a fir).
Pay more tax next year, after that it would depend, if Jaylen gets Supermax extension, same amount the next 2, if Jaylen re-signed for regular max, bit more tax for 2 years.
I think it's much easier now if anything. More reasons for Boston to take the chance, more reason for Brooklyn to blow it up.
You’re not alone. There are valid arguments on both sides of this debate. It’s a potentially career-defining decision by Brad if this is any way real and he’s actually interested. Durant comes here and helps Tatum win #18, then Brad doesn’t need to worry about anything else that happens subsequent to that. If KD comes here, gets injured or becomes a malcontent, then Brad could be sending the Celtics to Mavericks-land. I personally don’t love Jaylen at 5/290 or whatever that All-NBA salary would be so I might roll the dice on this. The thought of a TL, KD, JT front line would be incredibly difficult to pass up.
We would never want to be UNDER the cap as we’d then lose all of these valuable salary slots we’ve created with Brogdon, White, Smart and TL. It’s the repeater tax that needs to be avoided the way the penalties are currently structured.
Right, and this isn't just about KD. I'd be ok trading Jaylen for an elite scorer type (Mitchell would have been ideal, but obviously that was never happening for a lot of reasons.)
I love you man... But you are definitely not alone. A huge segment of the board, in this very thread, would rather take the sure thing in KD. Nearly all of us - even those of us who think this is the best team in the NBA - recognize that adding KD would make the title a near certainty rather than just an excellent proposition.
There's a lot of title talk on this "near certainty" or "basically guarantees" about a guy who's struggled to remain on the court for at least five years.
You're absolutely right. I shouldn't have used that language. I meant ceteris paribus, if he stays healthy, etc. Obviously he's missed a lot of time over the last few years, and that should absolutely be a factor in making this decision.
Does that contract make more sense for the Nets, with Jaylen as your #1? I don't think so.
If Brad doesn't think Jaylen is going to re-sign, because he wants his own team or something like that, then of course you have to pursue it. But otherwise, there's no question that they should sign him at the max, as opposed to just not paying him. I think he's absolutely worth 5/290, especially to the Celtics. Jaylen's a top-25 player who is still getting better. He's limited in some ways, but he has shown the ability to successfully play off Jayson Tatum. With him, they're a title contender, without him, they're not. I mean, I think signing Jaylen to the max is an absolute no-brainer. What are we talking about here? Those Supermax contracts are bad business when you're overpaying a marginal star to be your number one: Signing 29-year-old Bradley Beal to a Supermax to be your best player is Exhibit A. Most teams don't have the luxury of having a second option that's good enough to qualify for the Supermax, but if they did, they'd pay him. This is a good problem to have. It's not like the cap space can be spent elsewhere.
I don't pretend to be more knowledgeable than you, but Jaylen would be 2-3 years younger than Beal was when he signed his extension last summer. I realize it's ~$10m more/year if JB extends on a supermax, but I would find it hard to believe that it would be seen as a bad deal with the ink still wet as was the consensus with BB.
At higher levels of tax, the difference between repeater and non-repeater is actually pretty minor, because it's a one-time surcharge of $1 per dollar of overage; the premium for repeaters doesn't go up over time or with higher spend.
I definitely am not on the same side of the 5/290 divide as you, Jaylen's a borderline top 25 player, and while his offense has improved... his defense has not to me he's in that tier of guys you can give a max to pretty happily, but a huge supermax is likely to be an albatross by year 2 or 3 of the deal. Best case he plays well and it just hurts your ability to build around him and Tatum, worst he gets hurt, declines and now you're looking at a closed window.
Jaylen’s trajectory is nearly identical to that of Wall’s. Both were high draft picks who made multiple All-Star teams prior to making All-NBA (presuming Jaylen makes it) in their 7th season. Now maybe you’re referring to the Wall who has played 100 games in 5 years since his SuperMax kicked in due to knee and Achilles injuries but prior to that he was at pretty much the identical level of Jaylen today…..the difference being one has Tatum and plays for a winning organization while the other had teammates like Blatche, JaVale, Nick Young and Jordan Crawford coming up in a dysfunctional organization. I’d argue that Wall endured the much more difficult path in making an All-NBA team and that’s not to disparage Jaylen it just is what it is.
I don't think that's the proper framing of the discussion.
But those contracts are only an albatross if they're preventing you from being a title contender. The Celtics with Jaylen and Tatum are, for the foreseeable future as long as those guys are healthy. I know they're not Supermax deals, but does anyone care that the Bucks overpaid Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday? Wait until people see the next Jamal Murray contract.
So here's the thing to me... I don't think Tatum/Jaylen is enough to make you a perpetual contender any more than Tatum and any other top 30 player, and certainly not more than Tatum and KD. As to the Bucks.. they were much more like the idea of trading for KD, they overpaid to get Jrue and won a title. But the comp with Jaylen isn't a great one anyway, because the two of them are on the regular max combined make about $10-15M more than Jaylen alone would, there is a big difference between locking in 3 guys vs. 2, and MIL has already started to run into issues keeping roster depth. I'd also note that if Jrue on a max is overpaid (he's not) then Jaylen on the league's biggest contract is WILDLY overpaid, Jaylen is younger but they are a lot closer as players than many would want to admit, same with Middleton at the time he got his deal, similar to Jaylen.
Wait, Wall is small? He was one of the biggest and most physical PG in the game at the time, one of the few over 200 lbs, and would have still been among the most athletic players in the league during his contract when he’d have been in his prime years had he not had the injuries……which Jaylen is susceptible too as well, maybe even moreso as he’s been less durable up to the same point in their career.
Yeah, I'm not going to get too hung up on the similarities and differences between the two players. To me, the material difference is the status of the teams. As you said, Boston has Tatum and can contend for titles with Jaylen. The Wizards with Wall, and subsequently Beal at the time he signed his extension, were going no where and were pot-committed to a roster that was never going to win a title.
I get it, and I think you're more advocating for trading for Durant than you are for forgoing a supermax offer to Jaylen Brown. That's not my preferred route, mostly because of age and injury concerns, but it's perfectly reasonable.
It's not that confusing.
