He’s playing similar minutes and the only reason I can tell that he isn’t starting is that since Olynyk has been out the Jazz needed someone to match up w opposing 5’s so Walker Kessler was moved into the starting lineup.
Cavalry Candidates
- Thread starter bakahump
- Start date
what wings have the Celtics been linked to? I haven’t seen these reports and I don’t understand how it would be beneficial for the Celtics to trade assets (1st round picks) to acquire a bench player behind their two best players? The players that you want to be playing basically the entire game in the playoffs and who are young enough to be able to handle that minute load? It’s entirely possible I am missing something but I really don’t get how that’s a good allocation of resources
I haven't seen any rumors basically anywhere that they're willing to trade a 1st, a couple sources (Keith Smith, Weiss, Forsberg.) have said they were looking at big wings, or kicking the tires on a bunch of wings that fit into the Juancho TPE before it expired. Weiss mentioned McDaniels, and Martin from CHA, Forsberg didn't mention names. Honestly the most common thing I've seen is the idea that they won't make a trade and will use their ability to pay the most of the contenders to get the best of the buyout market.
So you have two star forwards. They are backed up by Grant Williams. If one goes down, then your backup is Sam Hauser or Blake Griffin or Justin jackson. Does that make you feel warm and fuzzy inside? In the center spot you have PTL, then Horford then Grant Williams or Luke kornet and then Blake again. So it takes a while before you start going “we’re fucked.” Not so much at wing. And remember, you have play 2 of them.
Now there are lots of things you can do involving pushing Smart or White up to small forward. The Celts have lots of flexibility. But if Brown or Tatum go down, the beads of sweat start appearing on your forehead long before they do if horford or PTL go down.
I thought that it was an equal playing field? In other words, I thought that everyone just pays the vet minimum because if you paid more, all you are doing is reducing the amount the original team has to pay?
The thing is that if Tatum or Jaylen go down then we aren’t winning a Championship anyway. If we lost Horford or TL and acquire someone like Poeltl then we are still contenders. For this reason alone we should be looking at frontcourt help more than on the wing.
Celtics can offer more because of the disabled player exception from Gallo. There isn't offset, as that is usually waived as part of the buyout (and isn't in all contracts).
Now usually the player surrenders a bit more than the pro-rated minimum, so the team will release them to save money, and they'll get basically all their money back. Now that's for last year of the deal, some guys get bought out with more than a year left, so they usually give up more money (see Kemba) but do it knowing there is a deal waiting.
So the Celtics as the only contender who can offer more than the minimum have a lot of flexibility. They can pay a guy more than anyone else, they also might make it attractive for a player with 2 years left to give up some of next year's money to get more this year and hit the market in the summer.
Maybe.
If Tatum went down, absolutely, if Brown went down, maybe.
You have to remember, you are more likely to deal with a short term injury then someone out for the rest of the year. That is what I am looking at. To survive a week or two.
Brogdon and White filled in admirably for Brown when he was out, particularly the former. We need to stop the black and white TV thinking on this. Our wing depth includes Brogdon, White, and Smart, all of whom are capable of guarding most 2s and a lot of 3s. Then you get to the Grants and Hausers of the world. Whether someone is a shooting guard or small forward in this league is irrelevant. Hell, even Jaylen plays both positions himself, depending on who's on the floor with him.
We don't have holes anywhere really imo. Question is whether we can upgrade a slot and whether we need injury insurance (or both).
We already have plenty to survive a week or two without either. I was referring to the playoffs when we would need both of them to be the last one standing.
I think they could beat a lot of 1st round opponents without Jaylen, but agree wrt later rounds.
Also, as Jimbo said, we already have lots of guys outside Tatum/Brown who can play 3/4 (Smart, White, Brogdon, Grant, Al). Highly unlikely for a wing trade candidate to be better than those guys.
I thought that too earlier this year but quite a few teams have larger exceptions (MLE/Bi-Annual).
The Celtics being title contenders should help, but they'll have competition in the buyout market
If this happened, you would see more of White/Brogdon/Smart sizing up and playing wing than you would see an uptick in Blake or Jackson minutes
I mean sure, but that's it's own problem, those guys are all better at the 1/2.
Yes, but they are also better at the wing than any potential buyout guy or whoever you get for a 2nd round pick
I'm less sure of that. I think it will be matchup dependent. Also going to have to see who is out there, and how many more minutes you're willing to play these guys.
I'm 100% confident that Brad/Joe feel White/Grant are much better WINGs, by any metric or match-up, than any player available in the buyout or 2nd round trade market.
PP and Hauser will most likely be better also
Pickings will be slim in a seller's market
I didn’t pay a whole lot of attention to it last year but I would think the sellers pool shrinks with the expanded playoffs. Teams who would have been sellers in the past are now competing for the playoffs, and post-season revenue/fan engagement, so they are now remaining intact. Like any other market with less inventory and greater demand you would expect the price to increase for those players who are on the market.
The Bucks are going to appease Serge Ibaka and find him a new home. Guy has been seeing Haslem-like minutes recently.
So, you want to spend a first and Kornet to get Poeltl but a back up wing only gets 2nds or the buy out market?
I think that you can get a backup big much more easily with 2nds or in the buyout market and you overspend for big wings.
Yes Horford can play there a little with the right big, but he will quickly get exhausted and lose effectiveness, White and Smart can play up, but they are 6’4” and 6’3” respectively and they will be at a disadvantage.
at big wing we have Tatum, Brown, Williams and then the abyss.
Agreed. Adding a high-quality rotation player, via trade, is going to be tough.
Who are the sellers?
Spurs
Hornets
Pistons
Rockets
Magic
Wizards? (2 games out of play-in)
Wizards won’t be sellers unless Beal is out. Looks like Romeo and J-Rich can be had……anyone?
Nope. I have never suggested paying a 1st for a Poeltl rental. In fact, I have been against that throughout. This means we probably won't land him.
BUT again we have no idea what Rob's private medicals are? what Grant's negotiations were like? what Poeltls extension price would be? or how the Spurs value PP, Hauser, Kornet, Begarin? All those factor into Brad's desire to add him. ie He may use a first if Rob's leg may explode at any moment
There are a ton of moving pieces here. Brad appears to be tight with them, so I imagine there is a lot of communication
A lot of people have already addressed this but a few things:
If Brown or Tatum goes down, the team isn’t winning a championship. Those are top 25 players, in a salary cap world you can’t be expected to have depth that can come in and replace those types of talents in the playoffs (especially as you get deeper)
Smart/White/Brogdon can all size up and defend small wings. Tatum and Brown can size up and defend big wings. The drop off to Griffin isn’t as close as you make it seem.
Acquiring someone like Poeltl has multiple benefits. You can rest Horford and Rob in the regular season, the two players in your top 9 that need a lot of rest by a mile. In the playoffs, if Rob or Horford get hurt then Poeltl can slot in and do a rough approximation of what they bring and you eliminate the possibility of having to play Kornet for more than 5 minutes.
And just to clarify, I don’t think it’s prudent business to trade multiple 1sr round picks for Poeltl, especially since he’s likely a rental. However, I would trade a heavily protected 1st for him. It seems like this is the year for the Celtics to win it all and I don’t think the 27th pick in the draft is worth not going all in
Yeah, lots of teams currently with a game or two of qualifying for the play-in, and I don't see teams punting on the chance for the play-in.
Just a thought on Poeltl, is there any benefit in keeping him from joining the Warriors or Sixers or some other ECF team?
I would agree but for the fact that this binds us to using the first-round pick in 2025 (you can't trade away your first in consecutive seasons). If Jaylen doesn't make all-NBA this season and someone else is able to sign him to a max deal, we're gonna need assets. And while I'm all for a win now mentality, I don't think yet another backup center is worth that kind of mortgaging.
We'll see, but also... how many minutes. Grant and White are already at or approaching career highs, an assumption that you can just extend them another 10 minutes a game without a loss of production (especially with either White guarding much bigger guys, or Grant guarding faster) isn't reasonable.
We'll see who hits the market, but I'd assume these guys are pretty available for either cheap trades or buyouts:
Oubre
Burks
Harris
Ross
Hachimura (might be pricier but aggressively being shopped)
Richardson
Gordon
Matthews
Porter Jr.
Young
Barton
If you're moving something like PP and the Rockets pick, you open up a lot of contenders who need PG depth as well.
Edit- I'd say even if the plan is to upsize the guards if Jaylen gets hurt, you'd still need to add a 2/3 to backfill minutes at those positions.
Point 1 - Correct. The pool will be small.
Point 2 - Yes absolutely! This is a large part of the value in trading for him. The Warriors struggled for 24 min with TL on the floor. Now imagine that in a Finals for 48 min every game? Compare that to the Warriors having someone to neutralize TL.
#2 is a good point. Not only is Poetl helping you…but he’s also not helping someone else. There is a double benefit potentially. We don’t finish well against the Warriors when their tallest guy is Andrew Wiggins. I’d hate for them to get Poetl.
I used Grant & White since last night felt like Coach Joe was in a "playoff rotation" mindset. They played 13 & 17 minutes respectively. Kornet played 8 mins.
The idea of adding a high-quality BIG is TimeLord injury insurance, Al/TL shrink wrapping & present rotational minutes
The argument that Hauser and PP will play high-leverage minutes in the playoffs in case of injury to a WING or Ball handler is flawed. They won't.
OTOH if an older Al or oft-injured Timelord go down buckle up for sizeable Luke minutes.
The problem with Poetl is that it’s the last move that Boston could make, and there’s zero chance that he returns to be the backup C. Boston has traded their 23 #1 and encumbered their ‘28. San Antonio is going to get better offers than a 2025 #1 for Poetl, so Boston would have to offer up both ‘25 and ‘27. At which point they’ve Brooklyned themselves to keep Golden State or Philly from getting a C. Not a wise idea.
No worries. I'm very unconfident with my assessment on trade values these days. Teams are all over the place
The one thing I'm confident in, especially after watching last night's game, is the need of Center depth over WING depth
Yes, to be clear, my interest in Poetl ends at 1 protected future 1st. I don’t expect the Celtics to land him for the reasons you mentioned nor would I be willing to go beyond that. I’m confident that Brad only deals a first for a guy who he’d trust in the playoffs. That’s a short list so chances are we do nothing but buyouts.
I know his availability is not clear, but lots of reporting and reasons PJ Washington could be available. He to me is a pretty interesting option...he's netiher the true big Poeltl is nor the true depth wing several of us say would be nice, but he's a really good player who adds a bit to either depending on matchup. He's also a hedge against Grant leaving.
Hornets were way apart in contract negotiations with him. The challenge is, would Celtics really win the bidding there? Pritchard, Begarin, 2nds seems light. And someone else probably wnats him more if he's really available, but to me an interesting name.
Hornets were way apart in contract negotiations with him. The challenge is, would Celtics really win the bidding there? Pritchard, Begarin, 2nds seems light. And someone else probably wnats him more if he's really available, but to me an interesting name.
Brad/Zarren have been too stealth with firsts to use it for a rental.
They'll need to get creative & sell the shit out of Pritchard or Hauser or Begarin
This is a great point and changes my stance honestly.
I don’t think it happens but my dream acquisition is Wendell Carter for a Derrick White type package. Doubt the Magic would be interested though
I honestly think Vanderbilt is the more realistic target as PP is/was Danny’s draftee.
Again, I want to point out that we own almost nothing in the way of 2nd rounders. We have:
- 2023, a probably high-30s / low 40s 2nd rounder from a complicated series of trades (Kanter to Portland, 2020)
- 2023, a probably high-30s 2nd rounder (Portland's own, in same series of trades)
- 2026, the lesser 2nd-rounder of ours / Memphis (they have swap rights)
- 2028, ours only if #31-45
We have traded our own second-rounders in 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2027, and encumbered 2028.
For firsts, we have traded away our 2023, and given SAS swap rights in 2028, but have our own in 2024-27 and have one to trade in 2028, so largely playing with a full deck there.
edit: corrected by lovegtm above. Guess POBOBS is playing with a full deck, but I can't say the same for myself.
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Shouldn't be hard to trade one or both of the 2023 second rounders for future ones to spread out the capital though, no? I would expect Brad to fill 2024-2025 gap that way, if they're not dealt before the deadline.
I would agree, but the total number of assets is not large either way.
I also don't think it'd be such a bad thing if we had very few second rounders to work with, as making those selections is more likely to create roster congestion than it is to create good underpriced talent that's worthy of our roster right now.
As far as Poeltl goes, I think I'd be OK with a top-25-protected 2025 first (becoming a 2nd rounder if not), you could maybe talk me into protection 1-20, but that's about as far as I'd go. And frankly, that shouldn't win the bidding.
I also don't think it'd be such a bad thing if we had very few second rounders to work with, as making those selections is more likely to create roster congestion than it is to create good underpriced talent that's worthy of our roster right now.
As far as Poeltl goes, I think I'd be OK with a top-25-protected 2025 first (becoming a 2nd rounder if not), you could maybe talk me into protection 1-20, but that's about as far as I'd go. And frankly, that shouldn't win the bidding.
This 2028 part is incorrect: it's a swap, so the Celtics get the Spurs pick that year if the pick conveys, meaning no issues trading 2027.
I misstated that--you can't trade your first in more than two consecutive seasons. We already traded the 2023 pick for Brogdon, which was well worth it IMO.
2nds are readily sold on the market for cash (Wyc & Co have a checkbook if they want to buy one)
+
teams, like Boston/GS, are finding undrafted/G-League players to fill out the end of their bench on the cheap(Kornet/Hauser/Lamb). Brad was able to pay them min. for multiple seasons. Boston is out of the developing young guys at the NBA level for the foreseeable future
Yea, I suspect Danny & Will Hardy would have more interest in PP (& Begarin) than most.
Danny could also take advantage of the "seller's market" and continue the teardown, while adding young assets. JV isn't going to come cheap since he's a high energy, complimentary player on a cheap 2yr contract.
Jeez Danny won that Gobert deal 10 different ways, he may want to continue to flex by monetizing JV
We have two this year, which is what I was proposing to trade.
As for "If Jaylen leaves...." scenario, that is a possibility, though I hope not a likely one. I personally think the right approach is to assume he stays and seek to win while he's here, because 1) willing helps retain him and 2) there is no scenario we can be good enough post-Jaylen to win and so worry about how dire the situation is doesn't seem to make sense to me. There's not (in my view) a realistic "hedge against Jaylen leaving and backfill him" scenario unforutnately...though if someone can identify the assets to do it, great. Thus, I wouldn't trade chance of an extra playoff series win this year for the difference between 42 and 48 wins post-Jaylen.
The Athletic with a top 25 potential trade targets: https://theathletic.com/4107795/2023/01/20/nba-trade-deadline-big-board-predictions/
Some snippets of interest:
Poeltl: The bigger question is where Poeltl fits in the center hierarchy as he has been a consistently strong rim protector before this season but has been below that standard this season. If he gets back to that defensive foundation and maintains the offensive growth we have seen, Poeltl will be a valuable center either in San Antonio or elsewhere.
PJ Washington: Undoubtedly though, contenders would still have a lot of interest in taking a real swing on a player many around the league see as a tailor-made role player on contending teams.
Levert (surprisded to see his name here): Koby Altman acquired LeVert less than a year ago, but the Donovan Mitchell trade fundamentally changed LeVert’s place with the franchise.
Olynyk: Olynyk has never played better than he has this season. As a starter for the Jazz, he’s posted 50/40/83 shooting splits while averaging 12 points per game next to Lauri Markkanen. Olynyk is a smart, instinctive player who always seems to make the right read to put his more skilled teammates in better positions. His contract will pay him $12.8 million this season and is non-guaranteed for $12.1 million next year. Olynyk would be a sharp addition for a contender looking for some frontcourt playmaking, passing and floor spacing.
McDaniels (I like this fit for the C's). The 6-9 McDaniels has quietly become an interesting role player in Charlotte. He plays hard, aggressively crashes the glass and can defend a couple of positions. He’s also a 35 percent 3-point shooter on nearly 400 career attempts and is adept at timely cuts to the rim.
Some snippets of interest:
Poeltl: The bigger question is where Poeltl fits in the center hierarchy as he has been a consistently strong rim protector before this season but has been below that standard this season. If he gets back to that defensive foundation and maintains the offensive growth we have seen, Poeltl will be a valuable center either in San Antonio or elsewhere.
PJ Washington: Undoubtedly though, contenders would still have a lot of interest in taking a real swing on a player many around the league see as a tailor-made role player on contending teams.
Levert (surprisded to see his name here): Koby Altman acquired LeVert less than a year ago, but the Donovan Mitchell trade fundamentally changed LeVert’s place with the franchise.
Olynyk: Olynyk has never played better than he has this season. As a starter for the Jazz, he’s posted 50/40/83 shooting splits while averaging 12 points per game next to Lauri Markkanen. Olynyk is a smart, instinctive player who always seems to make the right read to put his more skilled teammates in better positions. His contract will pay him $12.8 million this season and is non-guaranteed for $12.1 million next year. Olynyk would be a sharp addition for a contender looking for some frontcourt playmaking, passing and floor spacing.
McDaniels (I like this fit for the C's). The 6-9 McDaniels has quietly become an interesting role player in Charlotte. He plays hard, aggressively crashes the glass and can defend a couple of positions. He’s also a 35 percent 3-point shooter on nearly 400 career attempts and is adept at timely cuts to the rim.
From today's Jay King column in the Athletic re: MBPC binky Poeltl.
Edit: I should add that King mentions other players who *may* be available - many referenced here in the thread - but had no actual reporting on any real trade talks or targets. It was all effectively speculation.
I tried to look this up and am still confused. One of the reasons the Spurs are trading Poeltl is that they can only offer him the 120% raise so 4 years at 58 million. Poeltl as declined that contract. Is the acquiring team in the same position as the Spurs as far as the contract? If so, doesn't that lower his value and make him a candidate for any team since the acquiring team cannot resign him unless they have cap space?
The difference is the NBA extension rules vs. a new contract. In an extension, you can only offer 120% of the current contract +8% raises per year. On a new deal, they can give him up to 30% of the cap. They'd have Bird rights, as would any team acquiring him, I believe. The extension rules are a mixed bag as far as player retention goes.