Cavalry Candidates

HomeRunBaker

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I'm getting more and more behind trading Jaylen. His value around the league is perceived as high, but he simply can't raise an offense's floor the way you need a 2nd star to be able to do. (Unless the 2nd star is a DPOY Draymond type.)

Is Jaylen for KD the way to go? Who knows whether it's even available. However, I'd prefer to pay some lead dog scorer than to pay Jaylen 60M/yr, from a "roster construction with Tatum" perspective.

Brad Stevens seems pretty ruthless in filling out the roster for a title shot, so we'll see how he has evaluated this.
I signed up for the Durant/Jaylen swap last year and I’m signing up again with Jaylen looking like a SuperMax qualifier. I just don’t see Brad wanting to go that route for a second banana.

Cap guys….how does Durant/Finney-Smith and Jaylen’s contracts work as part of a 3-teamer with Dallas?
 

DJnVa

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So far this is only SAS talking about it from what I can see. No real whispers anywhere else.
 

HomeRunBaker

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So far this is only SAS talking about it from what I can see. No real whispers anywhere else.
It’s Jaylen being added to tonight’s injury report that lit the fire for me anyway. There may be other talks around the league starting up now that the Kyrie move has taken place. Not sure who else Jaylen could be involved with but the timing of his “illness” is curious anyway.
 

slamminsammya

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yes? If he's healthy he's a top 5 player, he's probably better than Tatum, he's a LOT better than Jaylen, and that's continued even when he's had injuries. If KD is on the court in the playoffs the Celtics would be huge favorites. And he's played in the playoffs, even if he sits out here and there in the regular season.
Right, I am just trying to gauge the odds he misses significant playoff time which I think basically ends any title hopes we would have.
 

BigSoxFan

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Do we know what the status of KD’s knee injury is? That is what would give me the most pause.
 

radsoxfan

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Do we know what the status of KD’s knee injury is? That is what would give me the most pause.
Unless there is something that isn't being reported, a non-surgical MCL sprain would not give me any long term pause re: KD.
 

Cellar-Door

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Right, I am just trying to gauge the odds he misses significant playoff time which I think basically ends any title hopes we would have.
Probably not significantly higher than any other player without a degenerative injury. His current injury is one any player would have suffered in the same situation, just got rolled into.
 

BigSoxFan

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Unless there is something that isn't being reported, a non-surgical MCL sprain would not give me any long term pause re: KD.
Any elevated chance of re-aggravation? It’s been about a month so he should be back after the all-star break or around then, no?
 

slamminsammya

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Probably not significantly higher than any other player without a degenerative injury. His current injury is one any player would have suffered in the same situation, just got rolled into.
Really? He is 34 and has had in the past few years: Calf strain, torn achilles, hamstring strain, 2x mcl sprains.
 

JakeRae

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I signed up for the Durant/Jaylen swap last year and I’m signing up again with Jaylen looking like a SuperMax qualifier. I just don’t see Brad wanting to go that route for a second banana.

Cap guys….how does Durant/Finney-Smith and Jaylen’s contracts work as part of a 3-teamer with Dallas?
I’d sign up for a Jaylen for Durant swap in a heartbeat too as it would let me go back to rooting for the Celtics. I’m not sure how involving Dallas would help though. The Celtics cannot get around needing to send out enough salary to match. I suppose Dallas or another third team could help as a destination for players we need to send out that the Nets might not want, but that’s about it. To match Durant, Jaylen, Gallinari, Jackson, and Blake is enough. There’s no realistic way to add Finney Smith unless it’s to balance a situation where the Nets are demanding we include Smart or White.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’d sign up for a Jaylen for Durant swap in a heartbeat too as it would let me go back to rooting for the Celtics. I’m not sure how involving Dallas would help though. The Celtics cannot get around needing to send out enough salary to match. I suppose Dallas or another third team could help as a destination for players we need to send out that the Nets might not want, but that’s about it. To match Durant, Jaylen, Gallinari, Jackson, and Blake is enough. There’s no realistic way to add Finney Smith unless it’s to balance a situation where the Nets are demanding we include Smart or White.
The Nets have to be looking to add defense and some frontcourt toughness. I’d throw Grant into that deal as he’s another guy Brad may not wish to pay long term. Of course all of this is unlikely.
 

JakeRae

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The Nets have to be looking to add defense and some frontcourt toughness. I’d throw Grant into that deal as he’s another guy Brad may not wish to pay long term. Of course all of this is unlikely.
If you add Grant and two of Hauser, Pritchard, or Kornet you could expand to include DFS (technically it would need to be two separate trades but can still work). Of course, that’s not realistic because the Celtics would have like 9 active players following that trade. In other words, if the Celtics trade for Durant that’s probably it other than maybe trying to trade for someone who fits the Schroeder TPE and shopping in the buyout market.

Edit: In a 3-team with Dallas you could keep Blake or Jackson but would need to send out Kornet and Pritchard. Still not desirable to gut the roster in that way. I also don’t really see why a torn down Nets team would have interest in Grant. Pritchard would make a lot more sense for them to want as a guy who may be able to light up the scoreboard a bit in an expanded role.
 

radsoxfan

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Any elevated chance of re-aggravation? It’s been about a month so he should be back after the all-star break or around then, no?
MCL partial tears scar down pretty reliably, I wouldn't be too concerned.

Obviously he can always re-injure it like anyone can sprain their MCL, but as far as knee injuries go (ACL, meniscus, cartilage, etc) MCL is a good one to get.
 

Cellar-Door

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Really? He is 34 and has had in the past few years: Calf strain, torn achilles, hamstring strain, 2x mcl sprains.
That's the NBA, one catastrophic injury and a couple small ones none particularly related and none chronic. Doesn't make him that much more likely to be injured in the playoffs. If the question is who will play more games overall... Yeah I take the younger guy. But nothing in Durant's injury history is concerning enough to not trade for him
 

ifmanis5

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So far this is only SAS talking about it from what I can see. No real whispers anywhere else.
Yup. KD for JB is trending on Twitter but the only source is SAS' announcement. No other confirmations. And all the replies from Celtics fans is 'please God do not do this.'
 

RG33

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Yeah, put me strongly in the “Fuck off KD” camp. I want to win with the Jays.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I was all for a KD/Jaylen swap in the offseason and gun to my head I think I feel the same way. I do think it would be more fun to win a title with the Jays, but swapping KD for Jaylen makes winning a title more likely. It's a tough one, but at the end of the day I think it's purely hypothetical until someone with credibility reports something.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, put me strongly in the “Fuck off KD” camp. I want to win with the Jays.
Would you comfortably pay Jaylen 5/$290m this summer? This is what it boils down to in the end. I like Jaylen too, shit I was one of the few who loved the pick that night of the draft…….but he may immediately be one of the worst contracts in the league as a second banana for us.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah the whole "I want to win with the Jays" thing is fine if you're also willing to say "Winning a title isn't that important to me", because to an extent that is what you are saying, that you'd rather have Jaylen Brown on the team even if it means not winning a title. And to me... yeah I don't feel that way at all. We drafted Jaylen, that's awesome, he became better than we reasonably hoped, also awesome.... he's about to get paid, and to me, he's probably not going to be worth the money, add in off-court questions... and yeah, give me the at times surly guy who is a top 15 all time player who gives me a better shot at the title. I'd much rather win with Tatum and Durant than lose with Jaylen and Tatum.

Edit- and that ignores that your window to win with the Jays might be this year only when they don't give Jaylen 5/290 and he demands a trade, or 2 years when they let him go to FA and he chooses to have his "own" team rather than playing Great Value Pippen on the Celtics.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This trade didn't have an easy answer back in July. If anything, its even tougher now imo.

This isn't a potential franchise killer but it can certainly change the entire Tatum window for better or worse.
 

Red Averages

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What’s the cap like with Durant vs JB? Anyone they wouldn’t be able to re-sign? Would it free up space for someone they otherwise couldn’t get (ring chasers etc) given the 3-1 potential structure?
 

Ed Hillel

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This trade didn't have an easy answer back in July. If anything, its even tougher now imo.

This isn't a potential franchise killer but it can certainly change the entire Tatum window for better or worse.
If anything, it makes more sense to me now, as the price is probably down AND Brooklyn would be more willing to add in some role players (love Curry as a fir).
 

Cellar-Door

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What’s the cap like with Durant vs JB? Anyone they wouldn’t be able to re-sign? Would it free up space for someone they otherwise couldn’t get (ring chasers etc) given the 3-1 potential structure?
Pay more tax next year, after that it would depend, if Jaylen gets Supermax extension, same amount the next 2, if Jaylen re-signed for regular max, bit more tax for 2 years.
Either way never getting under the cap unless MAYBE if Jaylen walked for nothing.

This trade didn't have an easy answer back in July. If anything, its even tougher now imo.

This isn't a potential franchise killer but it can certainly change the entire Tatum window for better or worse.
I think it's much easier now if anything. More reasons for Boston to take the chance, more reason for Brooklyn to blow it up.

On the whole though I think Brooklyn is still committed to Durant, and if they make another move it will be to upgrade a spot using picks. One of the Raptors guys, Collins, something like that
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I see the argument for a deal as I have maintained for a while that this team doesn't have enough come the playoffs - and I am fully aware that I may be the only one who holds that view.

That said, KD isn't a chemistry problem but any time a team makes a deal of this magnitude, it changes things like expectations and locker room culture that can alter franchise trajectories.

In short, this isn't an easy deal to make. Durant is a better player than Brown but there are no guarantees and if it doesn't work, the C's could be looking at rebuilding sooner than we all anticipated.
 

BigSoxFan

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I see the argument for a deal as I have maintained for a while that this team doesn't have enough come the playoffs - and I am fully aware that I may be the only one who holds that view.

That said, KD isn't a chemistry problem but any time a team makes a deal of this magnitude, it changes things like expectations and locker room culture that can alter franchise trajectories.

In short, this isn't an easy deal to make. Durant is a better player than Brown but there are no guarantees and if it doesn't work, the C's could be looking at rebuilding sooner than we all anticipated.
You’re not alone. There are valid arguments on both sides of this debate. It’s a potentially career-defining decision by Brad if this is any way real and he’s actually interested. Durant comes here and helps Tatum win #18, then Brad doesn’t need to worry about anything else that happens subsequent to that. If KD comes here, gets injured or becomes a malcontent, then Brad could be sending the Celtics to Mavericks-land. I personally don’t love Jaylen at 5/290 or whatever that All-NBA salary would be so I might roll the dice on this. The thought of a TL, KD, JT front line would be incredibly difficult to pass up.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Pay more tax next year, after that it would depend, if Jaylen gets Supermax extension, same amount the next 2, if Jaylen re-signed for regular max, bit more tax for 2 years.
Either way never getting under the cap unless MAYBE if Jaylen walked for nothing.
We would never want to be UNDER the cap as we’d then lose all of these valuable salary slots we’ve created with Brogdon, White, Smart and TL. It’s the repeater tax that needs to be avoided the way the penalties are currently structured.
 

lovegtm

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Would you comfortably pay Jaylen 5/$290m this summer? This is what it boils down to in the end. I like Jaylen too, shit I was one of the few who loved the pick that night of the draft…….but he may immediately be one of the worst contracts in the league as a second banana for us.
Right, and this isn't just about KD. I'd be ok trading Jaylen for an elite scorer type (Mitchell would have been ideal, but obviously that was never happening for a lot of reasons.)

Obviously the Celtics can win a title with JB as #2 (shoulda done it last year), but for his upcoming salary, I'd really prefer a star who can lead the non-Tatum minutes.
 

Fishy1

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I see the argument for a deal as I have maintained for a while that this team doesn't have enough come the playoffs - and I am fully aware that I may be the only one who holds that view.

That said, KD isn't a chemistry problem but any time a team makes a deal of this magnitude, it changes things like expectations and locker room culture that can alter franchise trajectories.

In short, this isn't an easy deal to make. Durant is a better player than Brown but there are no guarantees and if it doesn't work, the C's could be looking at rebuilding sooner than we all anticipated.
I love you man... But you are definitely not alone. A huge segment of the board, in this very thread, would rather take the sure thing in KD. Nearly all of us - even those of us who think this is the best team in the NBA - recognize that adding KD would make the title a near certainty rather than just an excellent proposition.

Nevermind that he's miles better on offense than Jaylen, he's also gigantic defensive menace when hes engaged. A lineup of Smart, White, Tatum, KD, and Rob would bring opposing teams to tears.
 

BrotherMouzone

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I love you man... But you are definitely not alone. A huge segment of the board, in this very thread, would rather take the sure thing in KD. Nearly all of us - even those of us who think this is the best team in the NBA - recognize that adding KD would make the title a near certainty rather than just an excellent proposition.

Nevermind that he's miles better on offense than Jaylen, he's also gigantic defensive menace when hes engaged. A lineup of Smart, White, Tatum, KD, and Rob would bring opposing teams to tears.
There's a lot of title talk on this "near certainty" or "basically guarantees" about a guy who's struggled to remain on the court for at least five years.

Also, people realize how difficult it is to win a championship, right? You need a lot of things to go right and then still need some luck to pull it off. I'm 50/50 on whether the C's should pursue Durant, but acquiring him certainly guarantees nothing.
 

Fishy1

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There's a lot of title talk on this "near certainty" or "basically guarantees" about a guy who's struggled to remain on the court for at least five years.

Also, people realize how difficult it is to win a championship, right? You need a lot of things to go right and then still need some luck to pull it off. I'm 50/50 on whether the C's should pursue Durant, but acquiring him certainly guarantees nothing.
You're absolutely right. I shouldn't have used that language. I meant ceteris paribus, if he stays healthy, etc. Obviously he's missed a lot of time over the last few years, and that should absolutely be a factor in making this decision.

That said, I'd still do it! No sign that the injuries are degenerative, and the Celtics would be able to shrink-wrap him in a way that he hasn't been able to since GSW.
 

chilidawg

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Would you comfortably pay Jaylen 5/$290m this summer? This is what it boils down to in the end. I like Jaylen too, shit I was one of the few who loved the pick that night of the draft…….but he may immediately be one of the worst contracts in the league as a second banana for us.
Does that contract make more sense for the Nets, with Jaylen as your #1? I don't think so.

I recall many posts here rooting for JB to make All NBA so we could offer him the SuperDuperMax, but now that's a bad contract. So confusing.
 

CreightonGubanich

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Yeah the whole "I want to win with the Jays" thing is fine if you're also willing to say "Winning a title isn't that important to me", because to an extent that is what you are saying, that you'd rather have Jaylen Brown on the team even if it means not winning a title. And to me... yeah I don't feel that way at all. We drafted Jaylen, that's awesome, he became better than we reasonably hoped, also awesome.... he's about to get paid, and to me, he's probably not going to be worth the money, add in off-court questions... and yeah, give me the at times surly guy who is a top 15 all time player who gives me a better shot at the title. I'd much rather win with Tatum and Durant than lose with Jaylen and Tatum.

Edit- and that ignores that your window to win with the Jays might be this year only when they don't give Jaylen 5/290 and he demands a trade, or 2 years when they let him go to FA and he chooses to have his "own" team rather than playing Great Value Pippen on the Celtics.
If Brad doesn't think Jaylen is going to re-sign, because he wants his own team or something like that, then of course you have to pursue it. But otherwise, there's no question that they should sign him at the max, as opposed to just not paying him. I think he's absolutely worth 5/290, especially to the Celtics. Jaylen's a top-25 player who is still getting better. He's limited in some ways, but he has shown the ability to successfully play off Jayson Tatum. With him, they're a title contender, without him, they're not. I mean, I think signing Jaylen to the max is an absolute no-brainer. What are we talking about here? Those Supermax contracts are bad business when you're overpaying a marginal star to be your number one: Signing 29-year-old Bradley Beal to a Supermax to be your best player is Exhibit A. Most teams don't have the luxury of having a second option that's good enough to qualify for the Supermax, but if they did, they'd pay him. This is a good problem to have. It's not like the cap space can be spent elsewhere.

Point being: it's reasonable to think that maybe the Celtics should explore a trade of Jaylen Brown for another star that better complements Jayson Tatum, whether it's Durant, or Donavan Mitchell, or someone else (unless that someone else is Karl-Anthony Towns!). I don't think that letting Jaylen walk for nothing, or trading him for something less than another top-25 player just because you don't want to pay him, is a reasonable path forward.

And I reject the idea that preferring to keep Jaylen rather than trade for Durant is tantamount to saying that winning a title isn't that important. This team was in the Finals 8 months ago, with a significantly worse roster overall, and a lesser version of their two best players.

I actually think, if it's a reasonable bet that Jaylen re-signs, that the chances of a single title are roughly equal between having Jaylen around for the next six years versus Durant for the next couple. Accounting for durability, performance decline, etc. Injuries are impossible to predict, but with Durant, I think it's likely he ends up like late career Chris Paul - brilliant when he's there, but at some point, betting on him to be healthy for four playoff rounds is a bad idea.
 
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Bunt4aTriple

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Would you comfortably pay Jaylen 5/$290m this summer? This is what it boils down to in the end. I like Jaylen too, shit I was one of the few who loved the pick that night of the draft…….but he may immediately be one of the worst contracts in the league as a second banana for us.
I don't pretend to be more knowledgeable than you, but Jaylen would be 2-3 years younger than Beal was when he signed his extension last summer. I realize it's ~$10m more/year if JB extends on a supermax, but I would find it hard to believe that it would be seen as a bad deal with the ink still wet as was the consensus with BB.
 

InstaFace

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We would never want to be UNDER the cap as we’d then lose all of these valuable salary slots we’ve created with Brogdon, White, Smart and TL. It’s the repeater tax that needs to be avoided the way the penalties are currently structured.
At higher levels of tax, the difference between repeater and non-repeater is actually pretty minor, because it's a one-time surcharge of $1 per dollar of overage; the premium for repeaters doesn't go up over time or with higher spend.

60954
 

Cellar-Door

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If Brad doesn't think Jaylen is going to re-sign, because he wants his own team or something like that, then of course you have to pursue it. But otherwise, there's no question that they should sign him at the max, as opposed to just not paying him. I think he's absolutely worth 5/290, especially to the Celtics. Jaylen's a top-25 player who is still getting better. He's limited in some ways, but he has shown the ability to successfully play off Jayson Tatum. With him, they're a title contender, without him, they're not. I mean, I think signing Jaylen to the max is an absolute no-brainer. What are we talking about here? He's not John Wall.

And I reject the idea that preferring to keep Jaylen rather than trade for Durant is tantamount to saying that winning a title isn't that important. This team was in the Finals 8 months ago, with a significantly worse roster overall, and a lesser version of their two best players.

I actually think, if it's a reasonable bet that Jaylen re-signs, that the chances of a single title are roughly equal between having Jaylen around for the next six years versus Durant for the next couple. Accounting for durability, performance decline, etc.
I definitely am not on the same side of the 5/290 divide as you, Jaylen's a borderline top 25 player, and while his offense has improved... his defense has not to me he's in that tier of guys you can give a max to pretty happily, but a huge supermax is likely to be an albatross by year 2 or 3 of the deal. Best case he plays well and it just hurts your ability to build around him and Tatum, worst he gets hurt, declines and now you're looking at a closed window.

I also find the "he's not John Wall" thing amusing. When John Wall was at this point he was better than Jaylen, he had just made his 4th straight all-star game, had already made All-NBA, had made an All-Defense team, and by basically every metric was better than Jaylen, he was one of the best players in the league and only about a year older than Jaylen is. He then signed a super-max extension, played well in the last year of his deal, got hurt in year 1 of the extension and that was that.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If Brad doesn't think Jaylen is going to re-sign, because he wants his own team or something like that, then of course you have to pursue it. But otherwise, there's no question that they should sign him at the max, as opposed to just not paying him. I think he's absolutely worth 5/290, especially to the Celtics. Jaylen's a top-25 player who is still getting better. He's limited in some ways, but he has shown the ability to successfully play off Jayson Tatum. With him, they're a title contender, without him, they're not. I mean, I think signing Jaylen to the max is an absolute no-brainer. What are we talking about here? He's not John Wall.
Jaylen’s trajectory is nearly identical to that of Wall’s. Both were high draft picks who made multiple All-Star teams prior to making All-NBA (presuming Jaylen makes it) in their 7th season. Now maybe you’re referring to the Wall who has played 100 games in 5 years since his SuperMax kicked in due to knee and Achilles injuries but prior to that he was at pretty much the identical level of Jaylen today…..the difference being one has Tatum and plays for a winning organization while the other had teammates like Blatche, JaVale, Nick Young and Jordan Crawford coming up in a dysfunctional organization. I’d argue that Wall endured the much more difficult path in making an All-NBA team and that’s not to disparage Jaylen it just is what it is.
 

lexrageorge

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Does that contract make more sense for the Nets, with Jaylen as your #1? I don't think so.

I recall many posts here rooting for JB to make All NBA so we could offer him the SuperDuperMax, but now that's a bad contract. So confusing.
I don't think that's the proper framing of the discussion.

The Celtics have a window as a true and serious title contender with Tatum, Brown, and Smart. A lot of us here have been saying that Danny's and later Brad's best approach should be to "run it back with Smart and the Jays". And Stevens has probably constructed the best possible roster that could be feasibly built around those 3 in Horford, TL, White, and Brogdon. There could and should be some upgrades available to the bench players as the deadline nears, which could prove to be important in the playoffs. But in terms of the front of the rotation, this roster is probably about as good as it can get with Smart and the Jays. Which is really, really good.

However, while a favorite, I would not consider this team to be a strong favorite. Philly and Milwaukee loom large in the East, and the Cavs and Heat and the post-Kyrie Nets could pose some difficulty as well. And of course the Warriors are still around, as are the Nuggets and even the Clippers if healthy. So, there is a reasonable chance that the Celtics do not hang #18 in October. So, it's reasonable to ask if Jaylen Brown would stick around if the Celtics do not win it all in the next 2 years. He's a hard person to read; at times he's simply weird in his statements.

Best way to keep Jaylen is hope he earns All-NBA honors either of the next 2 seasons, at which point he becomes eligible for the supermax. But that does come at a cost, as it can be challenging to upgrade a team that has 2 supermax players. There is downside risk of Jaylen's contract becoming a problem if he's making the supermax and the Celtics just are unable to get over the hump. In a universe where there is no KD available (still the most likely outcome, fwiw), I would still much rather the Celtics assume that risk than having Jaylen walk for nothing or for peanuts in a forced trade scenario. And I think nearly all posters here feel the same. But the risk should be acknowledged, as it is something that Brad is indeed weighing.

KD, assuming a return to good health this season, solves both problems. His arrival would make the Celtics very strong favorites to win the enchilada. Still would like to see a bench shooter, but KD and Tatum are a real nightmare matchup for literally every other team in the NBA. And I have to believe Wyc and Brad are indeed considering the Jaylen contract scenario when deciding whether and how aggressively they should pursue KD. Wyc has given Brad a very clear and unambiguous GFIN directive, and I have to believe Brad is indeed doing his due diligence.
 

CreightonGubanich

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I definitely am not on the same side of the 5/290 divide as you, Jaylen's a borderline top 25 player, and while his offense has improved... his defense has not to me he's in that tier of guys you can give a max to pretty happily, but a huge supermax is likely to be an albatross by year 2 or 3 of the deal. Best case he plays well and it just hurts your ability to build around him and Tatum, worst he gets hurt, declines and now you're looking at a closed window.

I also find the "he's not John Wall" thing amusing. When John Wall was at this point he was better than Jaylen, he had just made his 4th straight all-star game, had already made All-NBA, had made an All-Defense team, and by basically every metric was better than Jaylen, he was one of the best players in the league and only about a year older than Jaylen is. He then signed a super-max extension, played well in the last year of his deal, got hurt in year 1 of the extension and that was that.
But those contracts are only an albatross if they're preventing you from being a title contender. The Celtics with Jaylen and Tatum are, for the foreseeable future as long as those guys are healthy. I know they're not Supermax deals, but does anyone care that the Bucks overpaid Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday? Wait until people see the next Jamal Murray contract.

The difference with Wall is that the Wizards decided to pay a small point guard who relies on elite athleticism into his early 30s to be the best player on a middling team that had never achieved anything. If the Wizards were a title contender, I'd defend that contract too, but that team was going nowhere.

Edit: again, I'm not saying they shouldn't explore trading Jaylen for Durant or any other star player who's at least as good as Jaylen is. That's perfectly reasonable. I just disagree with the idea that if they don't make such a trade, they should have any hesitation in signing him to the max.
 

Cellar-Door

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But those contracts are only an albatross if they're preventing you from being a title contender. The Celtics with Jaylen and Tatum are, for the foreseeable future as long as those guys are healthy. I know they're not Supermax deals, but does anyone care that the Bucks overpaid Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday? Wait until people see the next Jamal Murray contract.

The difference with Wall is that the Wizards decided to pay a small point guard who relies on elite athleticism into his early 30s to be the best player on a middling team that had never achieved anything. If the Wizards were a title contender, I'd defend that contract too, but that team was going nowhere.
So here's the thing to me... I don't think Tatum/Jaylen is enough to make you a perpetual contender any more than Tatum and any other top 30 player, and certainly not more than Tatum and KD. As to the Bucks.. they were much more like the idea of trading for KD, they overpaid to get Jrue and won a title. But the comp with Jaylen isn't a great one anyway, because the two of them are on the regular max combined make about $10-15M more than Jaylen alone would, there is a big difference between locking in 3 guys vs. 2, and MIL has already started to run into issues keeping roster depth. I'd also note that if Jrue on a max is overpaid (he's not) then Jaylen on the league's biggest contract is WILDLY overpaid, Jaylen is younger but they are a lot closer as players than many would want to admit, same with Middleton at the time he got his deal, similar to Jaylen.

If anything I think you're laying out the argument for KD. If you're going to pay 2 guys and figure out the rest later, you want it to be two elite guys, and KD whatever you think of him as a guy, is a lot better than Jaylen, he's better on both ends of the court. He's almost certain to be better than Jaylen for the next 3 years.
 

HomeRunBaker

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But those contracts are only an albatross if they're preventing you from being a title contender. The Celtics with Jaylen and Tatum are, for the foreseeable future as long as those guys are healthy. I know they're not Supermax deals, but does anyone care that the Bucks overpaid Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday? Wait until people see the next Jamal Murray contract.

The difference with Wall is that the Wizards decided to pay a small point guard who relies on elite athleticism into his early 30s to be the best player on a middling team that had never achieved anything. If the Wizards were a title contender, I'd defend that contract too, but that team was going nowhere.

Edit: again, I'm not saying they shouldn't explore trading Jaylen for Durant or any other star player who's at least as good as Jaylen is. That's perfectly reasonable. I just disagree with the idea that if they don't make such a trade, they should have any hesitation in signing him to the max.
Wait, Wall is small? He was one of the biggest and most physical PG in the game at the time, one of the few over 200 lbs, and would have still been among the most athletic players in the league during his contract when he’d have been in his prime years had he not had the injuries……which Jaylen is susceptible too as well, maybe even moreso as he’s been less durable up to the same point in their career.
 

CreightonGubanich

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Wait, Wall is small? He was one of the biggest and most physical PG in the game at the time, one of the few over 200 lbs, and would have still been among the most athletic players in the league during his contract when he’d have been in his prime years had he not had the injuries……which Jaylen is susceptible too as well, maybe even moreso as he’s been less durable up to the same point in their career.
Yeah, I'm not going to get too hung up on the similarities and differences between the two players. To me, the material difference is the status of the teams. As you said, Boston has Tatum and can contend for titles with Jaylen. The Wizards with Wall, and subsequently Beal at the time he signed his extension, were going no where and were pot-committed to a roster that was never going to win a title.
 

Cellar-Door

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https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/2/7/23589245/boston-celtics-trade-intel-two-days-from-the-deadline?utm_campaign=celticsblog&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Nice roundup from Keith Smith:

On Durant: Yeah every team in the league is figuring out their best offer, but people he talked to think BKN isn't interested in trading him now
On Grant: People around the league hearing he's more available than previously, concerns about salary/role desire, would need a similar player with multiple years left, not shopping hard though
On White: close to untouchable
On PP: Likely a summer move, teams asking have been pushed back.
On Gallo: One reason unlikely to move him is they want to use the DPE.

Also, a number of sources with other teams saying basically all discussions they've had with BOS recently have been about 2nds/protected 1st to take a player making under $5.9M into the TPE from Schroder.
 

CreightonGubanich

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So here's the thing to me... I don't think Tatum/Jaylen is enough to make you a perpetual contender any more than Tatum and any other top 30 player, and certainly not more than Tatum and KD. As to the Bucks.. they were much more like the idea of trading for KD, they overpaid to get Jrue and won a title. But the comp with Jaylen isn't a great one anyway, because the two of them are on the regular max combined make about $10-15M more than Jaylen alone would, there is a big difference between locking in 3 guys vs. 2, and MIL has already started to run into issues keeping roster depth. I'd also note that if Jrue on a max is overpaid (he's not) then Jaylen on the league's biggest contract is WILDLY overpaid, Jaylen is younger but they are a lot closer as players than many would want to admit, same with Middleton at the time he got his deal, similar to Jaylen.

If anything I think you're laying out the argument for KD. If you're going to pay 2 guys and figure out the rest later, you want it to be two elite guys, and KD whatever you think of him as a guy, is a lot better than Jaylen, he's better on both ends of the court. He's almost certain to be better than Jaylen for the next 3 years.
I get it, and I think you're more advocating for trading for Durant than you are for forgoing a supermax offer to Jaylen Brown. That's not my preferred route, mostly because of age and injury concerns, but it's perfectly reasonable.

With regard to Jaylen's next contract, though, I don't think the same way you do about guys being overpaid. That may be true in the abstract, but when you're faced with the decision about whether to pay a guy or not, you only have to consider what else you can do with the money. For the Celtics, they can sign Jaylen to a contract that makes him arguably overpaid - supermax if he qualifies, or the regular max if he doesn't - or they can let him walk. If they do, they still won't have cap space to replace him. They could also trade for a collection of stuff - picks, role players, etc., but then you need to start the long process of trying to find another top-25 player to play with Jayson Tatum, and you need to do it fast, because otherwise Tatum himself is walking.

"Trade him for another superstar on a contract that I do like" is a nice idea, but it's not usually possible to thread thread that particular needle. It may be in this case with Durant, to the extent he's available. If so, it's a unique opportunity that you have to consider if you're Brad Stevens. The only thing I'm really pushing back on here is that idea that a reason to do the theoretical Durant deal is because the Celtics shouldn't pay Jaylen on his next contract.
 

Saints Rest

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If I'm the Nets (gross) and I'm thinking I want/need to trade KD now that KI is gone, I'd be looking at a trade that brings back beaucoup 1st round picks, not long-term contracts. So I would think this would have to be a 3-way trade with Brown going to Team X, Celtics picks and Team X picks going to NJ, and Durant coming to Boston. But then you have to make the money work.

Too complicated, I think. So I don't think it will happen.
 

Jimbodandy

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Does that contract make more sense for the Nets, with Jaylen as your #1? I don't think so.

I recall many posts here rooting for JB to make All NBA so we could offer him the SuperDuperMax, but now that's a bad contract. So confusing.
It's not that confusing.

1. It's a sidebar argument for "I want Durant".
2. While some folks here and elsewhere believe in Jaylen as cornerstone player, some don't and never will.