Celtics 20-21 Roster Construction

lexrageorge

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It's likely the Celtics saw Hayward as a significant (tradeable) asset at 25/year, or else could have shifted into "move Kemba" mode. My preference definitely would have been sign Hayward, move Kemba, and then sign a TT type.

Hayward probably didn't like what was behind either Celtics door: he would have stayed the 3rd/4th option, or been shipped off somewhere without any choice in the matter.
The money obviously mattered a lot, because he could have returned home to Indiana for the same $$$ as Boston, but chose not to.
 

Cellar-Door

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I doubt you can get to a dozen, though I don’t have specific passion for Harrison.

I took Lowe’s point, which has been made here for years in particular as to the Spurs, is that roles and context matter. There's certainly a risk that people take small samples for role players and over-extrapolate. But the role for Harrison is one Celtics have—and the question is comparing him to Javonte Green, who is not to date an nba player at either end. System fit matters, but Green is not going to play a lot so it's not much of an issue here.

We seem to have a different view of the end of the roster---you have suggested most possible draft picks had less upside than what they have, and all free agents. I like all three guys at the end of the rotation, but I don't see the irreplaceability that you do. I certainly hope you are right about the value of Tacko, Waters, and Green!
I think Green is a better fit for the role honestly, he has more size and athleticism than Harrison.

As to the latter.... to be clear, I think most 2nds willing to take a two-way have less upside than our current two-ways, or at the least that having already put a year of development into the two-ways, and the staff liking them means you should keep them rather than gambling on someone new who isn't clearly better (if they were they wouldn't be taking the 2 way).

as to the 12- (Turner, Lee, Ellington, Belinelli,Chandler, RHJ, GR III, Moore, Galloway, Korver, Mudiay, Ilyasova) If I missed any of those guys, I also would rather Batum on the minimum once he's officially waived.

Overall though, construction wise, I think it makes sense to let Green hold the 15th spot to keep things nice and clean while you look for trade and buyout options throughout the season.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think Green is a better fit for the role honestly, he has more size and athleticism than Harrison.

As to the latter.... to be clear, I think most 2nds willing to take a two-way have less upside than our current two-ways, or at the least that having already put a year of development into the two-ways, and the staff liking them means you should keep them rather than gambling on someone new who isn't clearly better (if they were they wouldn't be taking the 2 way).

as to the 12- (Turner, Lee, Ellington, Belinelli,Chandler, RHJ, GR III, Moore, Galloway, Korver, Mudiay, Ilyasova) If I missed any of those guys, I also would rather Batum on the minimum once he's officially waived.

Overall though, construction wise, I think it makes sense to let Green hold the 15th spot to keep things nice and clean while you look for trade and buyout options throughout the season.
I agree with all of this. Green is deep bench at the wing position. If we need that role for a large balance of the season, we're already fucked. But if we need a guy to credibly step up as second/third wing off the bench as JB or JT nurses a hammy for two weeks, he's fine. He already knows the actions on both ends, is bouncy AF, and maybe has some transition and slashing upside. He's a better offensive player than Romeo as this point, although definitely not on defense. He's the 15th man, so upgrades there aren't likely material. If someone drops out of the sky at the trading deadline, then he's the cut.
 

PedroKsBambino

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If the goal includes "athleticism" then guys like Korver, Belinelli, and Evan Turner are certainly not good options relative to either Green or Harrison.

Anyway, it is indeed the 15th man. I have kind of liked Green since last pre-season but I do worry a bit about wing depth so we'll see
 

lovegtm

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If the goal includes "athleticism" then guys like Korver, Belinelli, and Evan Turner are certainly not good options relative to either Green or Harrison.

Anyway, it is indeed the 15th man. I have kind of liked Green since last pre-season but I do worry a bit about wing depth so we'll see
I’d be down with Korver or Bellinelli to try and steal some regular season wins against bad offenses. Kanter but on the wing.
 

nighthob

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I have to admit, I'm a little confused by the Gordon Hayward situation. There were a number of people with the firm belief the Celtics could never re-sign Hayward due to the luxury tax repeater penalties. But, they reportedly offered him ~$25 million a year. So, they were willing to pay the penalties for a player of GH's caliber (or somehow that doesn't get them into the luxury tax).
We're discussing rumors here, buuuuut, the other rumor was that Boston was looking to move Kemba Walker in order to acquire a mid lottery pick to use on Okoro. So it could be as simple as Ainge deciding that Hayward was a better health bet than Walker going forward, especially at a reduced rate.
 

nighthob

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He couldn't have returned home to IND unless BOS was willing to take back whatever IND was offering though
Yeah, especially since it emerged that Boston went calling around the NBA to see if anyone had any interest in Turner and found that the answer was "Not really". Boston definitely wasn't interested in fixing Indiana's payroll problems while getting nothing out of the deal.
 

Cellar-Door

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If the goal includes "athleticism" then guys like Korver, Belinelli, and Evan Turner are certainly not good options relative to either Green or Harrison.

Anyway, it is indeed the 15th man. I have kind of liked Green since last pre-season but I do worry a bit about wing depth so we'll see
I don't think the goal includes athleticism. I think the goal is players who can contribute as called for and have at least 1 NBA skill.

Athleticism and size were the reasons I would prefer Green as a defensive wing than Harrison as a defensive guard. If you're looking at Korver it's an elite shot as a bench option, if you're looking at Turner, it's a good sized defender who is a better ballhandler, etc.

The 15th spot isn't going to one particular role, it's really the... break glass in case of emergency, so what you want there is the player you think best has a chance to add something. However, Green and Harrison have a similar type, in that they are not shooters, not really ballhandlers, but mostly active defenders. i think if your 15th man is a mostly defensive player, I like the additional versatility that size and athleticism bring to cover more players.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I don't think the goal includes athleticism. I think the goal is players who can contribute as called for and have at least 1 NBA skill.

Athleticism and size were the reasons I would prefer Green as a defensive wing than Harrison as a defensive guard. If you're looking at Korver it's an elite shot as a bench option, if you're looking at Turner, it's a good sized defender who is a better ballhandler, etc.

The 15th spot isn't going to one particular role, it's really the... break glass in case of emergency, so what you want there is the player you think best has a chance to add something. However, Green and Harrison have a similar type, in that they are not shooters, not really ballhandlers, but mostly active defenders. i think if your 15th man is a mostly defensive player, I like the additional versatility that size and athleticism bring to cover more players.

I agree with the overall point, but everything I've seen lists both Harrison and Green at 6'4 (except for the mistaken 6'7 that the Bulls listed Harrison at), and to my eyes, Shaq looks a bit stronger, so I'm not sure that Javonte has a meaningful size advantage.

I don't think there's much space between them. Javonte knows the system and is friends with our franchise player, and that alone is worth more than the fact that Shaq has 2300 career minutes to Javonte's 500, which I might otherwise look to in a vacuum when trying to differentiate between two pretty similar guys.
 

Cellar-Door

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I agree with the overall point, but everything I've seen lists both Harrison and Green at 6'4 (except for the mistaken 6'7 that the Bulls listed Harrison at), and to my eyes, Shaq looks a bit stronger, so I'm not sure that Javonte has a meaningful size advantage.

I don't think there's much space between them. Javonte knows the system and is friends with our franchise player, and that alone is worth more than the fact that Shaq has 2300 career minutes to Javonte's 500, which I might otherwise look to in a vacuum when trying to differentiate between two pretty similar guys.
I think Javonte is maybe an inch taller, but he also definitely outweighs him by a good 15-20 lbs and I think he's stronger.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I think Javonte is maybe an inch taller, but he also definitely outweighs him by a good 15-20 lbs and I think he's stronger.

Shaq came into the league pretty skinny, but he's added a lot of mass. It can be strangely tough to get accurate height/weight measurements (much less wingspan and standing reach) for guys with no combine history, but comparing Google images within the past year for both guys, Shaq looks more muscular.

Not that B-Ref line-up data is particularly reliable, but they have him going from 50/50 PG/SG in his first two years, to SG/SF/PF 10/70/20 this past year, and Bulls reddit does reference him playing some PF when they needed him to.

https://www.reddit.com/r/chicagobulls/comments/iv8hi2/whats_the_eye_test_on_shaq_harrison/

The guy they describe is pretty similar to Javonte Green, and even the Bulls homers seem pretty meh on him overall. Meanwhile Javonte seems well-liked and throws down thunderous garbage time jams.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I don't think the goal includes athleticism. I think the goal is players who can contribute as called for and have at least 1 NBA skill.

Athleticism and size were the reasons I would prefer Green as a defensive wing than Harrison as a defensive guard. If you're looking at Korver it's an elite shot as a bench option, if you're looking at Turner, it's a good sized defender who is a better ballhandler, etc.

The 15th spot isn't going to one particular role, it's really the... break glass in case of emergency, so what you want there is the player you think best has a chance to add something. However, Green and Harrison have a similar type, in that they are not shooters, not really ballhandlers, but mostly active defenders. i think if your 15th man is a mostly defensive player, I like the additional versatility that size and athleticism bring to cover more players.
I agree it is about skill---since you said athleticism previously I was just trying to understand why you had guys like Korver on the list. Restated as you have here, you're in the same place I started. I think all those guys have roles and that's what you're looking to do with the slot.
 

leetinsley38

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NEED that massive TPE. That would provide endless options for speculation over the next 12 months and keep hope alive. It's the difference between a C- offseason and possibility to spin it into an A.
 

benhogan

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Kemba is going to need tons of load mgmt with the condensed schedule.

Does anyone want to speculate on the starting 5?
 

Cellar-Door

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Kemba is going to need tons of load mgmt with the condensed schedule.

Does anyone want to speculate on the starting 5?
I think the answer is: It depends.

I assume the standard will be:
PG: Kemba
SG: Smart
SF: Brown
PF: Tatum
C: Thompson/Theis rotation based on opponent

When Kemba sits we'll get Teague early in the season, later in the season if one of the young wings (Langford/Nesmith) is playing well he'll start with Smart at PG. You could make the case that when Kemba is out Grant Starts with everyone sliding down, but I doubt it.
 

nighthob

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According to what I'm hearing on the Ryan/Goodman podcast Kemba's injury might keep him out at the start of the year and he'll be on a minutes restriction. So that injury is going to be a real problem for them going forward.
 

Cellar-Door

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According to what I'm hearing on the Ryan/Goodman podcast Kemba's injury might keep him out at the start of the year and he'll be on a minutes restriction. So that injury is going to be a real problem for them going forward.
Depends what they mean by going forward, the Celtics will be fine in the regular season. I think with the short turnaround and compressed schedule a lot of guys around the league are going to be eased in.

All that matters with Kemba is what he looks like come playoffs
 

nighthob

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Stevens admitted that Walker might not be ready when the season starts. Given that the synvisc shot and the long covid layoff didn't improve things, the knee has to be a lot worse than we thought. We all agree that the important matter is that he be healthy by the playoffs, but I'm beginning to suspect that Kemba might be about to begin the sixth man phase of his career a lot sooner than anyone anticipated.
 

benhogan

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Stevens admitted that Walker might not be ready when the season starts. Given that the synvisc shot and the long covid layoff didn't improve things, the knee has to be a lot worse than we thought. We all agree that the important matter is that he be healthy by the playoffs, but I'm beginning to suspect that Kemba might be about to begin the sixth man phase of his career a lot sooner than anyone anticipated.
From Brad Stevens today: Kemba Walker status for opening night uncertain. “It’ll be some time before he’s going full speed.”

We don't need to see Kemba at 80%. If he takes the first 2 months off to rehab at the Auerbach Ctr, so be it. If turning him into a Super 6, so he can light up 2nd units while hiding his defense, works as well.

I like the idea of Grant (and his corner 3) sliding into the starting lineup with Theis/JB/JT/Smart. Rotate TT, Teague, Nesmith, Romeo & TL (Teague/Smart split PG). That's a 10-man rotation to start the season. With Semi, Pritchard and Greene as the extended bench on those back to backs
 
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Jimbodandy

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Smart, Brown, and Tatum will start 90% of the games, barring significant injuries. That's all we know.

Kemba may not even play any more than 70% of the games and will give up some starts even in some of those. Teague and some of the kids will get starts here and there.

I think that everyone else will be given shots here and there as a starter (and extra minutes) because why not. I'd be shocked if most or all of the 15 don't start one game at least.
 

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I would imagine that whenever Kemba sits, at least to start the season, it will be Teague at PG with Smart/Brown/Tatum/Theis. Then TT and Grant first off the bench. Semi will likely get a lot of early run, with Nesmith and Pritchard getting rookie minutes (5-10 per night). So we will likely see a lot of Smart at PG, with Brown and Tatum each slotting down with Grant and Semi getting some big wing (formerly known as PF) time. If Nesmith or Pritch show a lot, then maybe Semi's minutes go down.

But I also imagine that the first 15-20 games will see a lot of 10-12 man rotations.
 

pjheff

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9. Time Lord
10. Nesmith
11. Langford
12. Pritchard
13. Semi
Unless Ainge adds another wing, I expect Semi to be higher in the rotation next season. He is undeniably a limited player, but he largely plays within his limitations as a physical defender and taker of open three-point shots. While Langford and Nesmith have higher ceilings, the former needs to get healthy while the latter must adjust to the league. Semi is better positioned to be a useful role player this season, particularly if Grant Williams spends any time in the starting lineup.
 

benhogan

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Unless Ainge adds another wing, I expect Semi to be higher in the rotation next season. He is undeniably a limited player, but he largely plays within his limitations as a physical defender and taker of open three-point shots. While Langford and Nesmith have higher ceilings, the former needs to get healthy while the latter must adjust to the league. Semi is better positioned to be a useful role player this season, particularly if Grant Williams spends any time in the starting lineup.
yea sure, that sounds fair. That list wasn't created to indicate rotational minutes from day 1, just what the roster was at this point in the offseason

I expect Semi to get minutes with a condensed schedule. While he receives his share of criticism, the jump Semi made in shooting (3/FT%) last season relative to his first 2 years was rather large. With Hayward being subtracted, and no summer league for Nesmith/Pritchard to get familiar with the Celtics system, CBS will go with what he knows (Semi) to start the year.
 

lovegtm

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If Nesmith can play team defense at all, he’ll jump Semi on the depth chart fast.

That said, I think Semi gets a bad rap. He’s a perfectly cromulent 9-11th man who can give you 30+ minutes and not cost you a win against Charlotte/Cleveland/Knicks/etc if someone is getting planned/unplanned rest on those nights.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If Nesmith can play team defense at all, he’ll jump Semi on the depth chart fast.

That said, I think Semi gets a bad rap. He’s a perfectly cromulent 9-11th man who can give you 30+ minutes and not cost you a win against Charlotte/Cleveland/Knicks/etc if someone is getting planned/unplanned rest on those nights.
I'm not a Semi fan but he's worked his way into an NBA player. My big problem with him is Brad Stevens seems to love him.
 

pjheff

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If Nesmith can play team defense at all, he’ll jump Semi on the depth chart fast..
The staff has done a good job in teaching defensive concepts, but that’s a big “if.” Nesmith does not arrive with a great reputation for defense or lateral quickness, and it seems like it took him a year to transition to SEC play even offensively. It would be great for the team if Nesmith‘s play warranted jumping him over Semi in the rotation, but with an abbreviated offseason and no summer league, that outcome seems less likely than the alternative.
 

Euclis20

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I'm not a Semi fan but he's worked his way into an NBA player. My big problem with him is Brad Stevens seems to love him.
Eh, he played a total of 122 minutes in the Celtics' 17 playoff games last year (10th on the team). He played more than 12 minutes just once (the game 1 blowout win over Toronto) and he was on the court for just 23 total minutes in the Miami series. In the 5 playoff games that Hayward was able to play, Semi only saw time in one of them, for just 4 minutes.

Regardless of his status on the roster, I'm not worried about Brad overplaying him when it counts.
 

NomarsFool

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I give Semi credit for seemingly being a good teammate who works hard, accepts his role, and doesn’t cause problems about playing time. In other words, he is a professional bench player who properly belongs in the 12th-15th spot on the bench. There are lots of guys in his situation who’d be complaining about not getting the ball or trying to launch 50 ft jumpers every time he got near the ball.
But, aside from standing and waiting for someone to pass him the ball to take a 3 he is a disaster on the offensive end and in my opinion, very overrated on defense. Not to hone in too much on a single stat but his complete inability to block shots is amazing, I wonder if Kemba has more blocks than him
 

Cesar Crespo

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I give Semi credit for seemingly being a good teammate who works hard, accepts his role, and doesn’t cause problems about playing time. In other words, he is a professional bench player who properly belongs in the 12th-15th spot on the bench. There are lots of guys in his situation who’d be complaining about not getting the ball or trying to launch 50 ft jumpers every time he got near the ball.
But, aside from standing and waiting for someone to pass him the ball to take a 3 he is a disaster on the offensive end and in my opinion, very overrated on defense. Not to hone in too much on a single stat but his complete inability to block shots is amazing, I wonder if Kemba has more blocks than him
Kemba had almost 6 times more block shots than Semi. Semi's block rate is closer to Spud Webb.
 

Cellar-Door

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I give Semi credit for seemingly being a good teammate who works hard, accepts his role, and doesn’t cause problems about playing time. In other words, he is a professional bench player who properly belongs in the 12th-15th spot on the bench. There are lots of guys in his situation who’d be complaining about not getting the ball or trying to launch 50 ft jumpers every time he got near the ball.
But, aside from standing and waiting for someone to pass him the ball to take a 3 he is a disaster on the offensive end and in my opinion, very overrated on defense. Not to hone in too much on a single stat but his complete inability to block shots is amazing, I wonder if Kemba has more blocks than him
raw numbers obviously yes, Kemba plays way more minutes, rate.... yep.

Semi was 17th of 17 on the team in BLK%.
Kemba was 11th. (Marcus was 12th and Jaylen was 15th).

Of course blocks are a massively overrated defensive stat, they are not quite useless but close to it. Rim protection... sure, but blocks aren't actually a good indicator of rim protection.
A lot of terrible defenders are among the highest block rates, and a lot of great defenders (especially non-centers) have low block rates.
Steals are a slightly better stat, in that they actually indicate a possession ended without points, but even then basic defensive stats are even more useless than advanced defensive stats, which are a work in progress.


Edit- to be more clear, blocks are not a stat you should care about in anyone except maybe your C. You certainly shouldn't care about your wings getting blocks.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Semi doesn't get steals either. It's crazy just how little he adds to a box score.

He's fine for his role and he was already under control for cheap so may as well role with him.
 

Cellar-Door

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Semi doesn't get steals either. It's crazy just how little he adds to a box score.

He's fine for his role and he was already under control for cheap so may as well role with him.
He's a pretty decent defender with a particular skill-set (he's very strong for how quick his feet are) and it has real value. He's not an elite defender, but boxscore stats have little relation to defensive quality.

Semi is a solid player for his role, which is to come in and make life difficult for big wings, use some fouls, and then go back to the bench.
 

slamminsammya

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raw numbers obviously yes, Kemba plays way more minutes, rate.... yep.

Semi was 17th of 17 on the team in BLK%.
Kemba was 11th. (Marcus was 12th and Jaylen was 15th).

Of course blocks are a massively overrated defensive stat, they are not quite useless but close to it. Rim protection... sure, but blocks aren't actually a good indicator of rim protection.
A lot of terrible defenders are among the highest block rates, and a lot of great defenders (especially non-centers) have low block rates.
Steals are a slightly better stat, in that they actually indicate a possession ended without points, but even then basic defensive stats are even more useless than advanced defensive stats, which are a work in progress.


Edit- to be more clear, blocks are not a stat you should care about in anyone except maybe your C. You certainly shouldn't care about your wings getting blocks.
I agree in normal circumstances regarding block rate but Semi is an historical outlier and it shows on the court. His entire career I have been frustrated by how he looks like he is a good defender because he is strong and moves his feet well, but is so historically bad at challenging shots that guys usually end up scoring over him.

As fans, since we aren't used to watching guys who make such little effort to contest shots, we think he is playing good D and the other guy just made a nice shot but when it happens every damn time and you see his block numbers you figure guys going up against him know they can get their shot off without a problem. He is really bad.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I agree in normal circumstances regarding block rate but Semi is an historical outlier and it shows on the court. His entire career I have been frustrated by how he looks like he is a good defender because he is strong and moves his feet well, but is so historically bad at challenging shots that guys usually end up scoring over him.

As fans, since we aren't used to watching guys who make such little effort to contest shots, we think he is playing good D and the other guy just made a nice shot but when it happens every damn time and you see his block numbers you figure guys going up against him know they can get their shot off without a problem. He is really bad.
It's more about matchups. Semi is hard to push off the spot so if a player doesn't have a decent jump shot, that player is going to struggle. Those players are becoming more rare by the day tho.
 

Cellar-Door

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I agree in normal circumstances regarding block rate but Semi is an historical outlier and it shows on the court. His entire career I have been frustrated by how he looks like he is a good defender because he is strong and moves his feet well, but is so historically bad at challenging shots that guys usually end up scoring over him.

As fans, since we aren't used to watching guys who make such little effort to contest shots, we think he is playing good D and the other guy just made a nice shot but when it happens every damn time and you see his block numbers you figure guys going up against him know they can get their shot off without a problem. He is really bad.
He really isn't. He's a bad shot blocker, but his BLK % is the same as: Hachimura, Wes Matthews, Allen Crabbe, Barnes, Treveon Graham.
It was better than: Mike Scott, Ingles, Niang, Dort, Middleton, McDermott, Bogdanovic, Peterson, Gallinari, McCaw
I excluded smaller guards because there are a ton of those too.

He's bad, but historical outlier he is not even close to.

In 18-19 he was slightly better and was ahead of most of the same people, plus:
DeMare Carroll, Rodney Hood, Saric.
 

Euclis20

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Here's my favorite comparison on the subject: Semi has 13 blocks in his entire career, in 2755 minutes. In 2016-2017, Isaiah Thomas had 13 blocks in 2,569 minutes.
 

DJnVa

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Here's my favorite comparison on the subject: Semi has 13 blocks in his entire career, in 2755 minutes. In 2016-2017, Isaiah Thomas had 13 blocks in 2,569 minutes.
So he's as good as IT4? Sweet.
 

Jimbodandy

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He really isn't. He's a bad shot blocker, but his BLK % is the same as: Hachimura, Wes Matthews, Allen Crabbe, Barnes, Treveon Graham.
It was better than: Mike Scott, Ingles, Niang, Dort, Middleton, McDermott, Bogdanovic, Peterson, Gallinari, McCaw
I excluded smaller guards because there are a ton of those too.

He's bad, but historical outlier he is not even close to.

In 18-19 he was slightly better and was ahead of most of the same people, plus:
DeMare Carroll, Rodney Hood, Saric.
This post should put to bed any analysis of block percentage as an indicator of defensive skill.

Advanced basketball stats on defense are still pretty crap (getting better every year though), and they're light years better than box score numbers.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Fwiw, Semi grades out cromulently in D-RAPM (93rd overall last year, but dropped down to 193rd when luck-adjusted) as well as Real Adjusted Defensive eFG% (173rd), so while he’s not blocking shots, he’s not really getting lit up. Offensively, however, his adjusted plus/minus numbers are abysmal no matter which way you slice them.
 

BigSoxFan

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I feel like the Port Cellar is having its own Super Troopers “Meow Game” by seeing how many times the word “cromulent” or “cromulently” can be worked into posts...
 

lovegtm

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I feel like the Port Cellar is having its own Super Troopers “Meow Game” by seeing how many times the word “cromulent” or “cromulently” can be worked into posts...
Very happy that I started this.

Re Semi: is there any data to support the oft-repeated assertion that guys shoot over him at some crazy success rate? I usually lead towards eye test for such things, but midrange success rates in low minutes are notoriously hard to do this for.

For on/off, they were awesome with him on court in 2018-2019, and slightly worse with him on in 2019-2020. (I'm aware of the noisiness of those stats, so would like better data).
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Very happy that I started this.

Re Semi: is there any data to support the oft-repeated assertion that guys shoot over him at some crazy success rate? I usually lead towards eye test for such things, but midrange success rates in low minutes are notoriously hard to do this for.

For on/off, they were awesome with him on court in 2018-2019, and slightly worse with him on in 2019-2020. (I'm aware of the noisiness of those stats, so would like better data).
Its not perfect but spot up defense, filtered for playing time (I selected a minimum of 40 games) and used PPP to account for fouling. It shows that Semi is squarely in the bottom half of this group. It is worth noting that he is closer to the middle of the pack rather than the worst and that he is better than some other notable defensive specialists like Alex Caruso and even a few binky types people mention here.

On the other hand, using the same number of minimum games, Semi is in the top 40 in DFG% and ranked higher than Leonard and Smart, amongst others last year.

In short, I would argue that adjusting for height, the data on Ojeleye's shooting defense shows that he might struggle when opposing shooters have time to gather. However he isn't the worst at it and is closer to the middle than the dregs. Kind of inconclusive but he may not be as terrible as people think.
 

lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
7,287
Kiev, Ukraine
Its not perfect but spot up defense, filtered for playing time (I selected a minimum of 40 games) and used PPP to account for fouling. It shows that Semi is squarely in the bottom half of this group. It is worth noting that he is closer to the middle of the pack rather than the worst and that he is better than some other notable defensive specialists like Alex Caruso and even a few binky types people mention here.

On the other hand, using the same number of minimum games, Semi is in the top 40 in DFG% and ranked higher than Leonard and Smart, amongst others last year.

In short, I would argue that adjusting for height, the data on Ojeleye's shooting defense shows that he might struggle when opposing shooters have time to gather. However he isn't the worst at it and is closer to the middle than the dregs. Kind of inconclusive but he may not be as terrible as people think.
Thanks for that, didn’t expect him to be that solid on D. Explains why Stevens likes/trusts him. If he could shoot better or make ANY type of plays in space, he’d be an ok NBA player. (and make a lot more money, given positional scarcity)
 

mcpickl

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Jul 23, 2007
3,510
Couldn't see if it was confirmed here somewhere, Eric Pincus from Basketball Insiders said Jeff Teague did get the minimum and not the BAE. Leaves the Celtics around 15.7M below the tax right now.
 

TripleOT

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Jul 4, 2007
3,409
Semi’s offense is painful to watch, especially when he does anything besides catch and shoot open threes, but he had a higher eFG% last year than Tatum and Kemba (53.1%), and he got his three percentage up to 37.8.

He also is willing to throw his body around when trying to stop good scorers, who usually don’t like getting banged around.

If he can get to 40% from three this season, and can figure out how to make a basket after having to dribble the ball, Semi is ok as 9th man.

Also, Happy 26th Birthday, Semi.