It would have to be 6-0 win over COL at this point, no? US will be +2 and CRC -4.
That's not happening.
Copa America game thread
- Thread starter DJnVa
- Start date
That's not happening.
I take the old guy subs as a good thing. Jk has to manage his roster and may need to sub the kids in in a bigger spot. Get some guys who weren't used some run and maybe keep the locker room a bit more calm.
Not anymore certainly. At the time I posted it was 3-0 and CR were pressing hard. If it ends 3-1 or 3-2 we'd be sweating more scenarios than need be.
Nice win. Not perfect but have to like how the attack looked.
So basically this is where we are:
COL win tonight and US is through with draw and outside shot of winning group with win.
COL draw tonight and US is through with draw and (slightly better) outside shot of winning group with win.
COL loss tonight and US needs win or draw and CRC win over COL to advance.
COL win tonight and US is through with draw and outside shot of winning group with win.
COL draw tonight and US is through with draw and (slightly better) outside shot of winning group with win.
COL loss tonight and US needs win or draw and CRC win over COL to advance.
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Advance first, deal with the consequences later. I don't want COL playing a must win match to eliminate us against a Costa Rica squad we just embarrassed.
That aside, this is the most vulnerable Brazil team we have seen in years. They were pedestrian in their opener. Willian will give us fits but I think they're closer to paper tiger than they are unstoppable force. We will almost assuredly lose but I think there would actually be a small chance we win that one
That aside, this is the most vulnerable Brazil team we have seen in years. They were pedestrian in their opener. Willian will give us fits but I think they're closer to paper tiger than they are unstoppable force. We will almost assuredly lose but I think there would actually be a small chance we win that one
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Draw is the preferred outcome, makes a draw a guarantee and a chance for the top spot with a win.
2-0 Colombia after a half hour, Paraguay looked to get one back on a free kick, but... offside.
Wouldn't a win by Paraguay be the best outcome for us? Would put the points at PAR-4, COL-3, USA-3, CRC-1, so a US win vs Paraguay would give us the leading shot at being group winner, starting with a GD edge vs Colombia.
It's all academic anyway because Paraguay is terrible and has as much chance of beating Colombia tonight as I do of flying to the moon.
Colombia is killing them so it's academic, but a Paraguay win would force a win for USMNT, they would be out with a draw.
I think he's doing a coach thing trying to keep his players grounded with work left to be done, though in some ways I don't think it's wildly inaccurate anyway. Costa Rica was very poor in their defensive third and played a very loose game overall. Not to diminish the great job by the US overall to take advantage and be more committed to getting forward--saw a lot more of FJ, for example.
On the other hand, our defensive work wasn't as good last night. Caught chasing at times, guys weren't providing easy outlets, needed a lot of desperation defending in the box to keep the clean sheet. I think they were probably caught up a bit in the looser tenor of the game. But again, without hearing the comments I'd guess this is the Weird-JK way of saying "we're on to Paraguay."
On the other hand, our defensive work wasn't as good last night. Caught chasing at times, guys weren't providing easy outlets, needed a lot of desperation defending in the box to keep the clean sheet. I think they were probably caught up a bit in the looser tenor of the game. But again, without hearing the comments I'd guess this is the Weird-JK way of saying "we're on to Paraguay."
Related to that comment, I thought this was interesting:
Colombia is stronger than Costa Rica and beyond that, the Ticos had an off-day and a questionable choice of lineup (their central midfield was disastrous defensively and their defenders didn't do much to compensate for that deficiency). The US also finished really well, which is why the xG number is so much lower than the 3 actual non-PK goals. The PK has an xG value of .77, so total xG would be 1.50.
By xG both games were closer than the actual scoreline -
USA - 0.73 + 0.77 (PK) = 1.50
CR - 0.39
USA - 0.72
COL - 0.78 + 0.77 (PK) = 1.55
Klinsmann seems to be acknowledging that the US probably won't always finish as effectively as they did against the Ticos. Whether that means the US truly didn't play as well as they did against Colombia...I don't know. I certainly don't think it ranks among Klinsmann's crazier statements though.
FWIW, I should admit that I don't fully understand the shortcomings of xG, but just throwing it out there.
If the US manages to come in second in their group (looking like ~75% or so) there's a good chance the draw opens up decently for them. Assuming they finish second in Group A, here's a look at how their draw could potentially open up:
-Group B: Brazil is currently a slight favorite to win their group in the betting markets (~52-55%). As runner ups, the US would play the winner of this group. Both Ecuador and Peru have a solid shot to win the group (~21-25%). Obviously, either one of those two nations emerging as the group winner instead of Brazil would be a very preferable outcome for team USA, and the chances of that happening are surprisingly high (at least to me).
-Group C: Mexico is a solid favorite to win (~75%). Personally, I'd rather potentially face Uruguay than Mexico in the quarterfinals, although Suarez's potential return looms as a big boost for the Uruguayans. But Uruguay currently have roughly the same chance of winning the group as Venezuela (a little over 10% for both sides)
Group D: Argentina are well over 90% to win this group, with Chile more likely than Panama to come in second. Chile are the stronger side, and though they trail Panama in points 3 to 0, they will be favored to win both remaining matches against Panama and Bolivia.
Not to get too far ahead of everything, as the US obviously still has to actually secure their advancement. But securing a draw of Ecuador/Peru, Mexico/Urugary, and Panama/Chile would be very favorable, especially with the first head to head coming against either Ecuardo or Peru. Something to keep an eye on (and root for if you're pulling for the US) as the group stage matches play out.
-Group B: Brazil is currently a slight favorite to win their group in the betting markets (~52-55%). As runner ups, the US would play the winner of this group. Both Ecuador and Peru have a solid shot to win the group (~21-25%). Obviously, either one of those two nations emerging as the group winner instead of Brazil would be a very preferable outcome for team USA, and the chances of that happening are surprisingly high (at least to me).
-Group C: Mexico is a solid favorite to win (~75%). Personally, I'd rather potentially face Uruguay than Mexico in the quarterfinals, although Suarez's potential return looms as a big boost for the Uruguayans. But Uruguay currently have roughly the same chance of winning the group as Venezuela (a little over 10% for both sides)
Group D: Argentina are well over 90% to win this group, with Chile more likely than Panama to come in second. Chile are the stronger side, and though they trail Panama in points 3 to 0, they will be favored to win both remaining matches against Panama and Bolivia.
Not to get too far ahead of everything, as the US obviously still has to actually secure their advancement. But securing a draw of Ecuador/Peru, Mexico/Urugary, and Panama/Chile would be very favorable, especially with the first head to head coming against either Ecuardo or Peru. Something to keep an eye on (and root for if you're pulling for the US) as the group stage matches play out.
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The quarterfinals are not an open draw of 1st and 2nd place finishers. If the US finishes second, they will play the winner of Group B.
Brazil looked formidable and Haiti looked horrible. Brazil has some real quality in the squad with the FBs, Casemiro, Willian, and Coutinho. Players around them have a real opportunity to Make their case to Dunga.
Just picked up Perú Ecuador in the second half, very entertaining, back and forth,
a little chippy. Ecuador got a way easy goal out of the half, peru back four felt asleep, Ecuador chip pass over the back four, and then three guys broke through unmarked, one tapped it in
a little chippy. Ecuador got a way easy goal out of the half, peru back four felt asleep, Ecuador chip pass over the back four, and then three guys broke through unmarked, one tapped it in
Things I'd never seen before: bicycle cross. If I hadn't seen it I wouldn't have believed it. It almost worked too.
Wow, what a finish, Ecuador defender takes one for the team, tackles hard. on a breakaway, Peru played advantage, almost scored anyway. Tackler gets second yellow.
Yeah. Ecuador would still have to play Haiti, but Brazil can't really be counted on to drop too many goals to Peru that would reverse the GD margin.
Brazil will finish first with a draw now (outside of some ridiculous 7-0 Ecuador win over Haiti). But a Peru win over Brazil and Brazil is likely out.
Brazil will finish first with a draw now (outside of some ridiculous 7-0 Ecuador win over Haiti). But a Peru win over Brazil and Brazil is likely out.
The level of competition made it easier, but Coutinho is on fire. If you watch one goal from yesterday, look at the curling potshot he took at 91'. That shot scores on most UCL teams.
For CONCACAF, there were three qualifying routes for six spots.
1. USA and Mexico autoqualified
2. Winners of Copa Centroamerica (Costa Rica) and Caribbean Cup (Jamaica)
3. For the last two spots, four highest finishers in 2015 Gold Cup not already qualified competed in two one-leg playoffs, hosted by Panama (the highest seed).
Haiti qualified for a playoff match by virtue of ranking 6th in the Gold Cup last year (ranking was ordered by where teams finished, and for teams that lost in the same round, points earned in all matches, including knockout rounds. Panama made the semis, the Haiti/T&T/Cuba made the quarters)
Playoff ranking was 1. Panama, 2. Trinidad&Tobago, 3. Haiti, 4. Cuba
Haiti qualified by beating Trinidad & Tobago 1-0 in the playoff, which was played in Panama.
Panama qualified by beating Cuba 4-0.
edit-fixed Gold Cup ranking info
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I joked to a buddy of mine that Haiti must have missed the memo that you don't let Coutinho onto his right foot just outside of the box. Dude is a straight fucking assassin from that range.
But like Price said, it's Haiti. They were easily the worst team in the tournament going in and the results are bearing that out in spades.
Uruguay in danger of being eliminated. Down 1-0 in the 70th minute. A loss to Venezuela and a Mexico win or draw vs. Jamaica tonight will eliminate Uruguay.
Uruguay is horrible on the right side. RB can't defend, RM can't pass, RW shoots from 30+ instead of crossing.
Not putting in Suarez when he seemed ready to go is just weird.
Edit: Whoops, I came in late and didn't realize he wasn't eligible tonight.
Edit: Whoops, I came in late and didn't realize he wasn't eligible tonight.
They were saying he's on some ineligible list. If anyone not named Balotelli were going to try to sneak on the pitch in someone else s shirt it was probably him
Even though they said it on FS1, I don't see how he's ineligible. Isn't every member of the 23 eligible for every match unless they're suspended?
This is a tournament where they can't capably play the correct national anthems. Who knows?
I bet they sure wish Suarez were playing because Cavani has not taken several superb chances at this point
I bet they sure wish Suarez were playing because Cavani has not taken several superb chances at this point
I wouldn't be surprised to see some match devolve into screaming about the rules like 11-YO boys playing Wiffle ball in the back yard. Maybe if a quarterfinal is tied after 90 minutes and one side doesn't realize they aren't playing extra time.