#DFG: Canceling the Noise
- Thread starter nattysez
- Start date
Someone should make sure Kraft and/or BB are forwarded the article where the retired Physics head from the Air Force (Hackett) smacked down the crap math. He seems motivated, qualified, willing. It seems to me Kraft needs to stay on the offensive and have proof that before the report comes out he gave the league/Wells proof that the Pats math worked.Was (Not Wasdin) said:
That assumes that he is still all in.
This didn't come from PW--the professor leaked the voicemail. But really, why is he leaving a voicemail on a sensitive issue like this? And moreover why is he looking for a physicist from Columbia? Applied science or engineering is right. Lol.Average Reds said:
Respectfully, I disagree.Devizier said:
One, consulting with experts (or trying to find the right expert) is not mutually exclusive with conducting an experiment.
Two, and more to the point, lawyers at Paul Weiss are not going to conduct an experiment. Perhaps the NFL officials could, but it's not illogical to think that Wells' firm would retain an expert at Columbia or some other like institution and that person would supervise an experiment as part of his work.
Make no mistake, I think this whole thing is ridiculous, overblown and mismanaged. And a witch hunt, opportunistic and a steaming pile of BS. And that the leaks are reprehensible.
I just think that if you're going to hire an outside law firm to conduct an investigation, that it's not at all crazy that that firm would retain an expert to opine and possibly conduct experiments, as opposed to doing it themselves. Even the NFL itself would be better served by having an academic supervise such an experiment than doing it themselves.
Among the many things that I find ridiculous and bizarre about this whole thing is the apparent lack of reliable data about how the initial tests were conducted and the impact of those tests on the balls. So much of this thing is such a joke. I can imagine how many holes a seasoned litigator could punch in these allegations if they were made in a court of law...it would make the OJ defense look like childs' play.
BroodsSexton said:
For the sake of humor, I was imprecise. PW did not actively leak the story, but as you noted, it was incredibly sloppy to just leave the voicemail and never follow up.
DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Agree. Santa Claus/Tooth Fairy/Easter Bunny/Patriots. If you believe in your heart, young lad or lady...
Harry Hooper said:
The NFL doesn't have anything on the Pats, but they will bring the hammer down for "looking bad". As has been mentioned ad nauseum, the NFL doesn't have to prove anything. Massive fine and draft pick, with no hard evidence. That's what this will be. Kraft certainly won't get an apology, I think it will just be up to him whether or not he challenges the penalty that is coming or exposes the Kensil/sting facet to this whole event. Nothing to be done about public perception.
I think the Patriots are innocent of tampering... I think they submitted under-inflated balls, the refs approved them (which takes the Patriots off the hook for accountability but crucifies them in the public domain), and nature had an additional effect.
Sucks for the Pats, but thems the breaks. They will savage the Colts, Ravens, and any other team that complains moving forward.
Edit to add one of my favorite videos of all time, and because the analogy seems appropriate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcrg0B_yJAo
If they spend like 5 million on an investigation and don't actually have a lab or two conduct an experiment...
I think they probably will, though. We know they are at least consultiing scientists, and there's nothing to suggest Columbia is the only place they are looking.
I think they probably will, though. We know they are at least consultiing scientists, and there's nothing to suggest Columbia is the only place they are looking.
Apologies if this article was already shared...pretty great defense of the Pats
http://ryan-sawtelle.squarespace.com/web-log/2015/1/23/the-reason-you-hate-the-patriots-is-because-they-win
http://ryan-sawtelle.squarespace.com/web-log/2015/1/23/the-reason-you-hate-the-patriots-is-because-they-win
I'm sorry if this has already been answered.
1-The nfl is in charge of the kicking balls according to what I have read. Does anybody know to what psi they are filled?
They seem to my eye to be very round.
2- If they overfill them, is that allowed by the nfl rulebook?
3-What are kickers hoping to accomplish by massaging or manipulating the football prior to placing it on the tee at kickoff? Is that even allowed (trying to alter the
football in any way)?
4-If refs over inflate kicking balls, would Seattle have been cheating by using the kicking ball to fake the fg attempt and score a td? Was it easier to throw because of
over inflation?
I ask these somewhat jokingly, but am really curious if they do over inflate the kicking balls.
1-The nfl is in charge of the kicking balls according to what I have read. Does anybody know to what psi they are filled?
They seem to my eye to be very round.
2- If they overfill them, is that allowed by the nfl rulebook?
3-What are kickers hoping to accomplish by massaging or manipulating the football prior to placing it on the tee at kickoff? Is that even allowed (trying to alter the
football in any way)?
4-If refs over inflate kicking balls, would Seattle have been cheating by using the kicking ball to fake the fg attempt and score a td? Was it easier to throw because of
over inflation?
I ask these somewhat jokingly, but am really curious if they do over inflate the kicking balls.
If they do consult a physicist the leagues only way out will be manipulate the assumptions or the conclusions If they ask "Assuming ball filled up 12.5 PSI at room temperature of 75 in locker room, what will PSI be in outside temperature at halftime?" the answer should be somewhere around a 1.5 PSI drop.
What should happen after that:
Come out and say "A likely combination of temperature and human/gauge error explain PSI differences". Questions would be raised why Colt's balls did not show same 1.5 PSI drop so they would need to explain this.
What I fear NFL will actually do after that:
Manipulate conclusion to stick with a hard 2 PSI observed drop as fact, and state that the PSI drop "cannot fully be explained by temperature alone". Punish Pats, and completely ignore any other questions this raises.
Also can we get agreement on what temperature dropped to by halftime? I have seen as high as 51 and as low as 39 in various calculations.
What should happen after that:
Come out and say "A likely combination of temperature and human/gauge error explain PSI differences". Questions would be raised why Colt's balls did not show same 1.5 PSI drop so they would need to explain this.
What I fear NFL will actually do after that:
Manipulate conclusion to stick with a hard 2 PSI observed drop as fact, and state that the PSI drop "cannot fully be explained by temperature alone". Punish Pats, and completely ignore any other questions this raises.
Also can we get agreement on what temperature dropped to by halftime? I have seen as high as 51 and as low as 39 in various calculations.
It's for a parallel investigation on how the atmosphere of suck around Goodell can expand so rapidly despite being in such a high pressure environment.Rudy Pemberton said:
Why are they bothering, anyways?? We're not looking for someone to discover the Ideal Gas Law...Rudy Pemberton said:
First time I've seen a media talking head actually attempt to verify anything:
12 footballs in the bathroom... for science!
I think we're adding a certain polarizing Massachusetts resident to the whitelist.
12 footballs in the bathroom... for science!
I think we're adding a certain polarizing Massachusetts resident to the whitelist.
A huge part of the Patriots' defense here involves the pregame ball prep raising the pressure above its "equilibrium state" and then that artificial elevation declining over time. So even if temperature drop alone can't account for the change in PSI, that's not necessarily inconsistent with innocence.
Also reposting an article where a number of professors had already weighed in and expressed an interest in the topic. Interesting that these people are being largely ignored. I guess the league doesn't like their answers and needs to go find another professor that will screw up the calculations and give them the answer they want.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/01/26/scientists-agree-that-football-will-lose-air-pressure-when-moved-cooler-place/2KfFPHn9dARXXCwMgBMSkO/story.html
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/01/26/scientists-agree-that-football-will-lose-air-pressure-when-moved-cooler-place/2KfFPHn9dARXXCwMgBMSkO/story.html
Florio was on D&C this morning. You could hear in his voice how badly he wants the Pats to be nailed for this. He basically said, he didn't care what Kraft said and the NFL does not need to prove anything beyond a reasonable doubt. Circumstantial evidence is enough.
Gerry asked what happens if/when they spoke to the ball boy about what he was doing in the bathroom, and the ball boy said he was taking a leak? Florio said all the NFL has to do is say, "I don't believe you." He thinks that the reason Brady looked so rattled last week was because deep down, he realized that somebody could have done something to the footballs.
Gerry asked what happens if/when they spoke to the ball boy about what he was doing in the bathroom, and the ball boy said he was taking a leak? Florio said all the NFL has to do is say, "I don't believe you." He thinks that the reason Brady looked so rattled last week was because deep down, he realized that somebody could have done something to the footballs.
Peter King is a bag of air. But his comment yesterday on WEEI that he's not really familiar with anything of substance other than Spygate when it comes to this supposed long list of infractions the Patriots have committed (ie, the Westoff Theory) got me thinking:E5 Yaz said:
The only one thing that will change the narrative in any meaningful way is if the League is found to have gone along with a botched sting operation that was driven, at its core, mostly by teams jealous of the Patriots' success.
I wouldn't hold my breath that Ted Wells will be independent enough to actually come to that conclusion. But it would be a rich irony if he did.
I have no doubt that many of the NFL owners and many in the league office feel exactly as Florio does. That said, Florio's wants and desires are, thankfully, irrelevant.CantKeepmedown said:
# of media outlets running a ridiculous deflate 11 balls in 90 seconds "experiment" = hundreds
# of them willing to tackle the difficult "take a ball outside for an hour and see what happens to PSI experiment" = 0
# of them willing to tackle the difficult "take a ball outside for an hour and see what happens to PSI experiment" = 0
CantKeepmedown said:
Circumstantial evidence my ass. If they are nailed for that based on circumstantial evidence I wonder if Kraft has the balls to sue to the NFL to protect BB and TB12.
Pretty clear the Pats need to fire that attendant.
Biggest game of the year.
He's given one job, to deflate 12 balls, and its super easy according to Mike Florio. It's a huge strategic advantage. Yet, he only gets 11 of the 12 balls. Pretty half-assed.
Biggest game of the year.
He's given one job, to deflate 12 balls, and its super easy according to Mike Florio. It's a huge strategic advantage. Yet, he only gets 11 of the 12 balls. Pretty half-assed.
I was just going to post the same thing? WTF?Rosey Ruzicka said:
This shows how news media would rather run with the sensational story of the ball man deflating the ball rather than a real science experiment to see atmospheric conditions change the PSI...
Funny how easy it is to show how someone can be guilty when you are working backwards from the conclusion that they are guilty. This is how you get the terrible fumble "study" and the red herring tests proving that 11 balls in 90 seconds is possible. This is how two innocent vaguely Middle Eastern looking kids end up on a newspaper cover labelled terrorists after Reddit detectives decided they seemed off and were definitely carrying a pressure cooker.Ed Hillel said:
Sorry, but the Richard Sherman-floating-in-space-with-a-look-of-awe-on-his-face (a propos of nothing...WTF is he "looking" at in the copy editor's mind) made me laugh.
Who reads the Daily News? How many of those end up as LIRR waste?
Who reads the Daily News? How many of those end up as LIRR waste?
Based on the lack of transparency by the NFL front office, I doubt they have anything even approaching a viable case.Dick Pole Upside said:
The 2.5 billion dollar NEP franchise has been yet again dragged through the mud for what more and more appears to be an entirely baseless accusation.
The NFL did not have the correct procedures in place, if they did, under/over inflated footballs would be measured and corrected before the game and never make it onto a field.
To blame the NEP without definitive proof was not a good start, to still not have any proof 9 days later is leaving oneself exposed to a lawsuit with serious damages to account for is it not?
Robert Kraft is on the older side, and might value his legacy more than a couple of extra bucks.
It's time now for Sarah Koenig to do a podcast on this whole scandal and get to the bottom of it. That would actually be the only thing that could convince a lot of people that the Patriots didn't deflate the balls.
Serial 2: Deflate-gate. This needs to happen.
Serial 2: Deflate-gate. This needs to happen.
Kraft should buy every defensive player on the team a pressure gauge and every single time they get an interception or recover a fumble they should test the pressure of the ball on camera. Every single time forever.
This whole thing with separate kicking balls, separate balls for each team, QBs can prepare them, but 12.5-13.5 required, etc. is stupid, and leaves the door open for exactly this kind of bullshit.bosox431 said:
Play with the same ball from kickoff to 0:00. Kickers, QBs, etc. Both teams, everyone. if it's not lovingly prepared to your exact specs, tough titty. If it loses air and gets beat up over 4 quarters of guys falling on it... No different than the turf getting torn up over the course of the game.
This is football, not show dogs.
TheoShmeo said:
Well of course you would contract an outside body to conduct the experiment. But that outside body would not be a particle physicist at Columbia University. Perhaps the absurdity of approaching someone of that stature is precisely why the good professor leaked the voicemail in the first place.
The outside body you could contact might include engineering firms, consumer product testing agencies, or even the Wilson company. I'm sure no one has better ball-testing equipment than they do.
Agreed on the rest of your post, natch.
jsinger121 said:
Kraft would never sue the nfl. However there would emergency meeting of the owners in March.
DDB, if you try some more tests and want to simulate a game-used situation, maybe before you warm it up again your should drop a weight (like a 25 lb plate or concrete block) on it a dozen times and see if quick shocks to it also has an effect. I don't know how many plays the ball has to go through before being replaced, but it must be subjected to certain abuse. You could also put it in a dryer on the fluff cycle to bang it around.
The Daily News thing is a joke, right? I mean, first of all the entire process, comprising going into the bathroom, entering a stall, deflating the balls and leaving the bathroom took about 80 seconds. Saying he did it in 40 is counting just the time it took him to deflate the footballs, which is incredibly dishonest.
Second of all, the dude clearly rushed through the process, trying his hardest to complete it below the alloted time of 90 seconds. Would the ballboy be intent on beating some world record? Why rush through this when you're alone in a stall?
Lastly, this was accomplished by deflating the balls willy nilly, with the guy sticking the needle in each ball for the amount of time he felt was right, without any method. There also wasn't any checking of the pressure of the footballs afterwards, so do we really believe the Pats would put this on the hands of a ballboy who wouldn't even check how inflated the balls are after the process? If Tom Brady is so specific in how he likes his footballs, in order to go through this whole process to guarantee they are to his liking, how the fuck would there be no measurement in the end? He's just supposed to trust this underpaid kid? The whole thing is ridiculous.
Second of all, the dude clearly rushed through the process, trying his hardest to complete it below the alloted time of 90 seconds. Would the ballboy be intent on beating some world record? Why rush through this when you're alone in a stall?
Lastly, this was accomplished by deflating the balls willy nilly, with the guy sticking the needle in each ball for the amount of time he felt was right, without any method. There also wasn't any checking of the pressure of the footballs afterwards, so do we really believe the Pats would put this on the hands of a ballboy who wouldn't even check how inflated the balls are after the process? If Tom Brady is so specific in how he likes his footballs, in order to go through this whole process to guarantee they are to his liking, how the fuck would there be no measurement in the end? He's just supposed to trust this underpaid kid? The whole thing is ridiculous.