#DFG: Canceling the Noise
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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
An interesting finding, given Zolak's comment about how QB's main focus for throwing is the laces.
Yeah, I'm doing this solo so no real way to do a blind test, but now that I know the trick of exactly how to tell, I feel like I could do ok in blind test if you gave me the balls one right after another. If you made me wait a minute between feeling the balls, I would have much less confidence.
As someone who knows more than a little bit about New Coke, I beg to differ.SumnerH said:
The campaign for New Cole does not prove that all publicity is good publicity. Rather, it proves that ingrained brand equity built over 80+ years is able to survive and even transcend even the most tenacious attempts to destroy it by incompetent marketers.
Oh I know. Because it's barely detectable and probably not an actual difference-maker on the field. But if you saw Michael Strahan showingP'tucket said:
what an underinflated ball looked like on GMA,
well, it looked nothing like that. He went on about what a big advantage it would be and the thing squished in a full inch. The reality is that the ball looks like any ball on any play.
Another interseting point that I imagine everyone understood, but not me unti I started doing this, but the amount of air to raise a ball from 12 to 13 is not that much, although it is about twice as much as to raise the ball from 4 to 5.
Temperature drop experiment results in 30 or so.
Temperature drop experiment results in 30 or so.
Pressure should increase linearly with # of molecules of air. If you're using a hand pump, I suspect more air squirts out when you pump at 12 vs when you pump at 4, so going from 12->13 requires more pumps than 4->5.DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
I know these are subjective descriptions, but a ball above 9.5 or so feels hard to me, with gradations going up to 15 very difficult to tell. From 15 to 13 is imperceptible. The ball hits a point where it starts to feel soft at 6.8. But it's not squishy even there. The start of squishy -- where it feels like it would start to be easier to hold and catch with one hand is around 5.2. Even at 3, the ball still retains its shape and is just where you would start to say, it's getting flat. But you could play catch at 3. Decimals on the guage, is not flat. There is plenty of air left in the ball at just above zero.
DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Was experiment 2 replicated under "natural conditions"? e.g., having 1.2 seconds to hold onto the ball, in freezing rain, while multiple 300+ men were about to collapse on you?
It's so great that you are doing this and looking forward to the results!DennyDoyle said:
Regarding the "feel test," though, we all need to keep in mind that the Ideal Gas Law and game time temperature fluctuations render the question of feel meaningless in terms of supposed culpability.
The balls are (theoretically) in spec before every game every week, and in every single cold weather game they fall out of spec sometime during the first quarter at latest.* These are sadly the only facts we have.
Brunell can't believe Tom didn't notice on Sunday? Actually, they were more inflated against the Colts than the Ravens. Flacco didn't seem to notice much in that game, not that anyone would bother asking.
Oh, and we can keep going back on this. Eli Manning in Green Bay in 07? Way underinflated. The Tuck Rule game? Deflation Central. Super Bowls I & II? Of course they f@#king were!
The temperature changes. The pressure changes. Quarterbacks feel this all the time, or not. It's just one of many things that feels slightly, mostly imperceptibly different in the cold.
So for those of us who understand that the psi fluctuations are clearly temperature-driven, let's remember that the idea that Tom should have noticed any difference is just a red herring from the media and washed up athletes who should f@#king know better.
I think we all get it, but then again I'm also losing my mind on this, so... yeah.
* Except for maybe some Aaron Rodgers footballs that sneak through.
E5 Yaz said:
Even if they bring in scientists who back up the drop in PSI?
If the refs didn't measure pregame, and Wells pays even an iota of attention to the scientific principals, there's just no way they could do much. If they did, Kraft would go nuclear. Maybe he can't sue, but there are other ways and I'm sure he'd use them. If it turns out there was a sting operation on top of it, I just can't even imagine...He may be able to sue in that case. Not for the findings, but for the inequitable manner in which the league conducted the operation. Or, perhaps better put, for the inequity in the fact that there was a sting operation to begin with.
This thread - and the issue it studies - is Borges' Library of Babel made real: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Library_of_Babel
Florio was on Curran's Quick Slants program (as he always is) recorded earlier today. Deflate-gate was the topic, of course, and at the end of the conversation Curran asked straight out, "Have we yet been told what the Pats balls were measured at before the game, and what they were measured at at halftime?", and Florio responded "No, we haven't. Nor do we know what the Colts balls were measured at before the game or at halftime."
This is such a central element, but it's the first time I've heard a significant media figure acknowledge it straight out.
This is such a central element, but it's the first time I've heard a significant media figure acknowledge it straight out.
Here are my results for trial 1 of experiment 3. They suggest something is wrong with my football, gauge, or that air in a football takes a long time to warm. Anyway, here they are. Football was inflated in a 72 degree environment to 13 with a hand pump. I used 13 because it's easier to see on the gauge than 12.5, which is between marks. I overshot a tiny bit deflating the football and so true starting was around 12.9. Football was brought into a 39 degree environment. I know this is colder than game temps, but I can only work with what I have. Football was dry.
After 30 minutes at 39 degrees: 11.0 psi
After 60 minutes at 39 degrees: 11.0 psi
Football brought back into 72 degrees at, the following are measurements taken at various points after time zero
+1 minute: 11 psi
+2 minutes: 11.25 psi
+3 minutes: 11.4 psi
+4 minutes: 11.6 psi
+5 minutes: 11.7 psi
+6 minutes 11.8 psi
+7 minutes 11.85 psi
+8 minutes: 12 psi
+9 minutes: 12 psi
+10 minutes: 12 psi
+15 minutes: 12.2 psi
+20 minutes: 12.2 psi
+30 minutes: 12.2 psi
+40 minutes: 12.2 psi
That's where we are now. It's obviously a bit troubling that the ball did not get back up to 12.9, where it started, and I don't know what to make of it. The ball actually feels still a bit colder than the room, so I don't really know what to say. I'm going to measure again in an hour and then inflate back to 13 and try again.
After 30 minutes at 39 degrees: 11.0 psi
After 60 minutes at 39 degrees: 11.0 psi
Football brought back into 72 degrees at, the following are measurements taken at various points after time zero
+1 minute: 11 psi
+2 minutes: 11.25 psi
+3 minutes: 11.4 psi
+4 minutes: 11.6 psi
+5 minutes: 11.7 psi
+6 minutes 11.8 psi
+7 minutes 11.85 psi
+8 minutes: 12 psi
+9 minutes: 12 psi
+10 minutes: 12 psi
+15 minutes: 12.2 psi
+20 minutes: 12.2 psi
+30 minutes: 12.2 psi
+40 minutes: 12.2 psi
That's where we are now. It's obviously a bit troubling that the ball did not get back up to 12.9, where it started, and I don't know what to make of it. The ball actually feels still a bit colder than the room, so I don't really know what to say. I'm going to measure again in an hour and then inflate back to 13 and try again.
DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Did you leave the gauge in the whole time, or are you re-inserting it for each measurement?
He's a gay guy who makes money off showing Kate Upton's boobs?Ed Hillel said:
Back on topic, ESPN is officially out of ways to troll this story- they led SportCenter with a Warriors partial and Rangers/Islanders. Mort needs more leaks.
Took the gauge out when going from 72 to 39. Put it back in when going from 39 to 72 and left it in. Took it out at plus 40 minutes. I did some testing before I did anything else and sticking the gauge in had very little effect. About .2 loss for every ten sticks with the gauge.Harry Hooper said:
Ed Hillel said:
TMZ released BOTH Ray Rice videos to the public. I think Harvey Levin is actually football's Harvey Levin.
DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Just a thought, but leaving it in could also be destructive to the test, although I don't know how it would compare with performing multiple sticks. If the needle isn't held exactly perpendicular to the ball, the needle could be holding the hole open slightly and allowing air to escape.
Ok. Can't hurt. Since I think I have a decent sense of the rate at which it warms back up, I will only measure every two or three minutes after bringing back to 72 degrees.djbayko said:
DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Also, the ball could just have some natural leakage (e.g. a rubber escape valve that is drying out) that is more evident at higher pressures. You could test this by pumping up to a higher pressure like 15 psi, keeping temp constant, and measuring pressure after a couple hours (expecting 15 psi if no leakage).
The more I read and see about this, the more I think it was highly improbable, at best, for the Colts balls to have remained within the legal limit if they had started anywhere in it. That every single one apparently did is even more unbelievable. Better to ignore such complicated "scientific minutae," I suppose, and just assume it means Cheatriots. /Mortensen
People have repeated this on this thread but it bears repeating. In a world with every 'yapping face with a birth certificate that's an apology from the
condom factory' has a voice, where agendas are marked clearly on shit-stained souls, where guilt lies not in actual actions or factual evidence but because how else could they be this great. RELISH THE HATE.
You can explain it in small words so they'll understand but would you sooner get logical sense out of a confused turkey. You can talk till your red in the face about science, rational thinking and the legal process in the United States of America but you would be left seething at how their hallowed out brains can both shit and wipe themselves successively. They are just the afterbirth, slithered out of their mother's filth. If they were in the toilet, I wouldn't bother flushing it.
And there's only one thing these emotional cripples with delusions of adequacy understand...
JUST WIN BABY
I don't give a tuppeny fuck about your moral conundrum, you meat-headed shit sack. Eat it till you choke.
condom factory' has a voice, where agendas are marked clearly on shit-stained souls, where guilt lies not in actual actions or factual evidence but because how else could they be this great. RELISH THE HATE.
You can explain it in small words so they'll understand but would you sooner get logical sense out of a confused turkey. You can talk till your red in the face about science, rational thinking and the legal process in the United States of America but you would be left seething at how their hallowed out brains can both shit and wipe themselves successively. They are just the afterbirth, slithered out of their mother's filth. If they were in the toilet, I wouldn't bother flushing it.
And there's only one thing these emotional cripples with delusions of adequacy understand...
JUST WIN BABY
I don't give a tuppeny fuck about your moral conundrum, you meat-headed shit sack. Eat it till you choke.
Ed Hillel said:
Hint: The refs never measured the Colts balls. No one ever complained about them. The refs weren't thinking about the long term ramifications of an investigation. They were only concerned with fixing the immediate issue at hand, as evidenced by the fact that they refilled the Pats balls at halftime (and potentially never gauge tested the balls pregame).
I think we will ultimately find that the Colts balls being tested within regulation is one of the many fallacies that have been leaked to us over the past week+.
~30% of the loss regained in 4 minutes is surprisingly fast. I wonder how quickly the refs measured the footballs in the locker room? I wonder which balls they measured first (had to be the Pats).DennyDoyle said:
That alone could explain everything. 1 ball 2 lb under is the ball the Colts had...and therefore the first ball the refs tested. Did they pump it back up right away or did they test them all first? By the time they are done with the Pats balls is the 12th ball already fully re-inflated? Are all the Colts balls fully re-inflated?
So many questions.
Half time is like 20 minutes, right? I guess this would be bad if they waited 15 minutes and tested all the balls as they were approaching full re-inflation. That would be very bad for the Pats since it would indicate they were well below.
I believe BB/TB/BK but I'm not sure if I feel better or worse.
Edit: typo
12 minutes. To measure 24 balls and reinflate 12 would suggest they were moving quickly.amarshal2 said:
One other minor point. I have the kind of gauge that is like the one in the MMQ video, with a push button air release on the side. I can say with very high confidence that if this were the method one wished to use to deflate balls 2 psi, you could probably get pretty competent with practice, but one could not do a bag of 10 or 11 balls in 90 seconds this way, I don't think.
I think people are overinflating the physics issue here (couldn't resist). Especially since we don't have specific numbers or points of origin. This whole thing is easily explained where absolutely no one is really guilty of anything.
You don't need to account for exactly 2 psi. BB had to try to figure out how you can drop 2 psi because, as an innocent man accused of something he didn't do, he was desperately trying to figure out how it happened. His results, plus 1 with the ball prep is irrelevant. All you need is the -1 from dropping the temperature 28°.
If it's true that they asked the officials to inflate the balls to barely 12.5 psi, they're probably going to be under by however wide the needle is. Minus whatever angle he's looking at the gauge from. That's quite the margin of error when you only have to account for the given 1 psi it will drop on its own.
That remainder shrinks even more when you consider the leak only said 2 psi. It didn't say exactly 2 psi or average of 2 psi or up to 2psi. It doesn't say it's from 13, 12.5 or the point measured bbefore the game.
Is it not possible, almost probable, that the refs checked the balls, read it as 12.5, then used more precise measurements after the pressure had dropped a little? Going from 12.2 to 10.8 would be easy to sum up as 2 psi in the leak. And what you're left is a league that thinks they're right, so the team must have cheated, while the team feels they didn't cheat, so they feel like the league is fucking with them?
It's like getting stuck in traffic on a busy highway. You go bumper to bumper for 45 minutes wondering what dumb ass had the nerve to crash his car but no accident ever even occurred. It's just a natural phenomenon most average people don't think of. The cars aren't moving, so there must be an accident.
The balls were underinflated. Who is to blame? No one.
You don't need to account for exactly 2 psi. BB had to try to figure out how you can drop 2 psi because, as an innocent man accused of something he didn't do, he was desperately trying to figure out how it happened. His results, plus 1 with the ball prep is irrelevant. All you need is the -1 from dropping the temperature 28°.
If it's true that they asked the officials to inflate the balls to barely 12.5 psi, they're probably going to be under by however wide the needle is. Minus whatever angle he's looking at the gauge from. That's quite the margin of error when you only have to account for the given 1 psi it will drop on its own.
That remainder shrinks even more when you consider the leak only said 2 psi. It didn't say exactly 2 psi or average of 2 psi or up to 2psi. It doesn't say it's from 13, 12.5 or the point measured bbefore the game.
Is it not possible, almost probable, that the refs checked the balls, read it as 12.5, then used more precise measurements after the pressure had dropped a little? Going from 12.2 to 10.8 would be easy to sum up as 2 psi in the leak. And what you're left is a league that thinks they're right, so the team must have cheated, while the team feels they didn't cheat, so they feel like the league is fucking with them?
It's like getting stuck in traffic on a busy highway. You go bumper to bumper for 45 minutes wondering what dumb ass had the nerve to crash his car but no accident ever even occurred. It's just a natural phenomenon most average people don't think of. The cars aren't moving, so there must be an accident.
The balls were underinflated. Who is to blame? No one.
Red(s)HawksFan said:
Here's the work:
A drop from 12.5 PSI to 10.5 PSI is a ~7.4% drop (27.2 to 25.2 PSI in absolute pressure).
Gametime temperature was 50F (283K). If the temperature in the balls also dropped by ~7.4%, therefore explaining all of the pressure drop, the initial temperature must have been 305.6K, which is 90.4F.
SumnerH said:
!!
I only mean the cause, not how it's been handled. It's clear this was mishandled by the NFL and the media got too big of a boner over it, but that hysteria is a phenomenon of its own.Koufax said:
I think this whole thing is ridiculous, but does anyone really think Brady had no idea his pre-game ball preparation led to hot air in the balls and therefore under-inflated balls when they change back to room temperature? Or that Aaron Rogers doesn't inflate his footballs in a freezer before giving them to the refs so they're over-inflated during the game? They'd both be dumb not to, the rule is such a huge loophole it's asking to be exploited. Maybe you could argue it's against the spirit of the rule, but the NFL was begging for this when it let teams prepare their own balls and only subjected them to minimal and inconsistent pregame testing.
I don't think either of them do either of those things. They never needed to. All they would ever have to do is inflate them where they wanted and submit for approval. Before this week, they didn't care.
veritas said:
It's also possible that most of these guys don't actually think that being 1 or 2 psi above or below the acceptable range makes a whole hell of a lot of difference.
Jettisoned said:
No, it really doesn't matter much at all. It's more of a psychological thing really. And I don't think an NFL QB ever thought in a million years something like this would be such a big deal. Because it isn't
