Giants-Patriots: We're on to New York.

PayrodsFirstClutchHit · Nov 10, 2015

Given the Giants currently have the 32nd ranked defense and the 21st ranked offense, I am not sure I would qualify this as the toughest test yet.

Other than the ghosts of games past, these are quite different teams versus the 2007 and 2011 varieties. Even without Lewis, I expect the Pats to have an easy time of it against the Giants worst in the league defense.

RedOctober3829 · Nov 10, 2015

BaseballJones said:
The Pats and Giants have played four times (not counting preseason) in the Belichick/Brady and Coughlin/Eli eras. (They played in 2003 but Eli and Coughlin were not there yet in NY)

Here were the results:

2007
- Regular season (at NY): Pats 38, Giants 35
- Super Bowl: Giants 17, Pats 14

2011
- Regular season (at NE): Giants 24, Pats 20
- Super Bowl: Giants 21, Pats 17

So outside of the 2007 regular season matchup, the Giants have always found a way to slow down the Pats' offense, holding them below their season average by a considerable margin.

2007 (14 points allowed) = 22.8 points below their average
2011 (20 points allowed) = 12.1 points below their average
2011 (17 points allowed) = 15.1 points below their average

Now in those years, the Giants had a defense pretty ideal for playing against NE. A dominating front four that really got after Brady. This year they don't have that. But JPP is back and he could make a huge difference.

On the other side of the ball, the Giants have weapons that could give the Pats fits. Beckham and Randle are both very good (Beckham is tremendous). And Vereen is a terrific back catching the ball, as we know. And Eli is a quality quarterback. So they could present the Patriots with some significant challenges. Plus, the game is on the road for the Patriots, which puts them at a little disadvantage.

Moreover, the Patriots are dealing with significant injuries, especially on the offensive line. Losing Dion Lewis hurts a ton as well, and on the defensive side of the ball, it remains to be seen if Collins will be back.

All in all, this is probably the toughest test the Pats will have faced all year to date. We should expect a very close game, one the Pats could lose unless they play very well.

This isn't the toughest test for the Patriots. The Giants defense is horrid. They have 9 sacks this year as a team which is the worst in the league. Adding JPP is nice, but they just lost their best DL in Hankerson for the season. They have given up 308 yards per game through the air which is worst in the league. The 17 TD passes given up are 4th worst in the league Their LBs and safeties can't cover. Their corners are either hurt or ineffective. Offensively, they are pretty good but BB will double OBJ and let Randle get his yards similar to Brandon Marshall/Eric Decker vs. the Jets. Their running game is below average(24th in yards per game) while their passing game is above average(14th in yards per game).

The Giants will present a bit of a test on defense for the Pats, but the offense should destroy the Giants. I'm expecting a 34-20 type of game where it isn't that close.

ifmanis5 · Nov 10, 2015

I expect the Eli and the Giants to pull some BS out of their ass as usual.

bankshot1 · Nov 10, 2015

This may be the best offense the Pats have faced so far, (maybe Pitt week 1 but no Bell) so the D may be challenged, particularly the secondary. I expect a reasonably high scoring game. 38-24 Pats win with a lot of passing yards from both sides.

bankshot1 · Nov 10, 2015

ifmanis5 · Nov 10, 2015

Eli's gonna put up about 20 stupid balls up for grabs and it'll all work out for him. It's automatic.

Montana Fan · Nov 10, 2015

NYG, where Belichick learned how to celebrate.

Jed Zeppelin · Nov 10, 2015

RedOctober3829 said:
This isn't the toughest test for the Patriots. The Giants defense is horrid. They have 9 sacks this year as a team which is the worst in the league. Adding JPP is nice, but they just lost their best DL in Hankerson for the season. They have given up 308 yards per game through the air which is worst in the league. The 17 TD passes given up are 4th worst in the league Their LBs and safeties can't cover. Their corners are either hurt or ineffective. Offensively, they are pretty good but BB will double OBJ and let Randle get his yards similar to Brandon Marshall/Eric Decker vs. the Jets. Their running game is below average(24th in yards per game) while their passing game is above average(14th in yards per game).

The Giants will present a bit of a test on defense for the Pats, but the offense should destroy the Giants. I'm expecting a 34-20 type of game where it isn't that close.

Not to mention Randle is banged up and usually guaranteed to create at least one prime INT opportunity when he breaks off a route, tips a ball or runs the wrong route.

I don't see them running the ball well against the Pats. They rotate backs but none are particularly good as long as the tackling of Jennings and Williams is sturdy. They generally look good going up-tempo with Vereen but they don't use him consistently enough. I'd be fine letting them dump it off to him as much as they want.

Don't care if the OL is banged up or Lewis is out, there's no excuse for the Pats not dropping at least 30 on this team. My primary concern is Damontre Moore who has already been flagged three times this season for roughing the passer. If there's no repeat of the Indy game drops they should absolutely shred this team.

If it's late and close, it's worth noting that the Giants have no clue what they're doing in the 4th quarter. All that said, weird shit happens when the Giants step on the field and I won't feel comfortable until the clock runs down to 0 and the Pats have more points.

C4CRVT · Nov 10, 2015

The Giants are one of those weird teams that I'm more or less ambivalent about most of the time. I don't actively root against them like I do for the Jets, Ravens, Steelers and Broncos. But when they play the Pats, I hate them at an equal level to any of those teams. That fucking horseshoe that they have jammed in their ass when they play the Pats is pretty remarkable and annoying. Last week, during the game, I found myself saying things like "Hey not a bad throw there Cousins" and "Well, the db actually played that pretty well" and "Wow, great job by their OL, they're doing a great job protecting."

This week, I'm not expecting to be much fun to be around during the game.

nothumb · Nov 10, 2015

C4CRVT said:
The Giants are one of those weird teams that I'm more or less ambivalent about most of the time. I don't actively root against them like I do for the Jets, Ravens, Steelers and Broncos. But when they play the Pats, I hate them at an equal level to any of those teams. That fucking horseshoe that they have jammed in their ass when they play the Pats is pretty remarkable and annoying. Last week, during the game, I found myself saying things like "Hey not a bad throw there Cousins" and "Well, the db actually played that pretty well" and "Wow, great job by their OL, they're doing a great job protecting."

This week, I'm not expecting to be much fun to be around during the game.

I actually catch myself rooting for the Giants in a lot of NFC games. They're kind of lovably dopey. Which is the same reason why it drives me fucking nuts when they play the Pats close.

Koufax · Nov 10, 2015

Wow. After those super bowls I cannot root for Eli Manning. Unless he's playing the Jets, I suppose. Or now, playing against Indy, that might swing me to his side.

mulluysavage · Nov 10, 2015

One aspect that is continuous from previous years discussed is, this is the one opponent who I feel the Patriots will not out-coach.

dynomite · Nov 10, 2015

I agree that the Giants aren't our stiffest test (FO ranks the Steelers, Jets, and Bills above them) but they're a test nonetheless and I'm interested to read the ITP breakdowns this week in particular.

Everything about this Giants team seems pretty meh... Except their passing offense, which FO ranks 11th and features lots of really talented skill players (OBJ, Randle, Vereen, Donnell, etc.).

Will be interesting to see how Patricia deploys his guys to limit big plays and get pressure on Eli without opening up holes in the secondary.

jablo1312 · Nov 10, 2015

mulluysavage said:
One aspect that is continuous from previous years discussed is, this is the one opponent who I feel the Patriots will not out-coach.

I guess it depends what you mean by "out-coach". If you're talking about game management and opponent adjustments, then I have complete faith in BB and co. to at the very worst play to a draw against Coughlin, McAdoo, and Spagnuolo. They're a solid crew, but nothing spectacular; and between week 1 against Dallas, and the number of eggs the Giants have laid in the past couple of seasons, I see no real reason to be intimidated from a preparation standpoint than with a dozen other teams in the league.

I expect their team to be ready to come in and compete, which is something that Coughlin has always gotten a lot of credit for. So maybe he could "out-coach" by imploring his players to try harder and not give up, or something. I dunno. But I would be very surprised if the Pats coaching staff doesn't put their players in a better position to win the game, just like every single week.

BigSoxFan · Nov 10, 2015

Over/under on number of references to Helmet Catch and Manningham?

Just once, I'd like to see the Pats own the line of scrimmage against this team. I also can't wait to watch Butler vs. Beckham. Those two guys will be jawing all afternoon.

GeorgeCostanza · Nov 10, 2015

I am really excited to see if and how well Butler matches up against ODB. The dude is otherworldly and will be Butlers biggest test of his short career. I fully expect Brady to carve up NYG secondary, but if NE secondary can't keep up with Beckham and the rest, we could be looking at a shootout like the Saints game.

TomTerrific · Nov 10, 2015

BaseballJones said:
I hope you guys are all right, that the Giants are pretty bad and the Patriots will roll all over them. I think most people thought that in 2007 and 2011 too. This is a different team, of course, but they seem to find a way against the Pats. The Patriots SHOULD win, but I think it's gonna be a very tough matchup.

Well, a quick look at the 2011 DVOA ratings shows the Pats at 22% and the Giants at 12%. By comparison this year's Pats are at 40% and the Giants are at 1%. In fact, the Pats exceed the Giants in all three phases according to DVOA.

No guarantee but I found it helped quiet some of my Giants angst.

Of course, then there's the 2007 comparison. Whatever.

bankshot1 · Nov 10, 2015

If we've learned one thing about BB's defensive game plans it's to take away your favorite toy, and frustrate you. If that holds true, Opie to ODB will be limited in its effectiveness, and Opie will have to throw elsewhere. I can't see the Giants scoring anywhere near what they did against the Saints. Anyone watching that game (guilty) saw no defense being played. The Pats play defense.

crystalline · Nov 10, 2015

jablo1312 said:
I expect their team to be ready to come in and compete, which is something that Coughlin has always gotten a lot of credit for. So maybe he could "out-coach" by imploring his players to try harder and not give up, or something. I dunno. But I would be very surprised if the Pats coaching staff doesn't put their players in a better position to win the game, just like every single week.

You obviously didn't watch the 2010 Super Bowl. Coughlin was not outcoached. In fact, the intentional 12 men on the field was one of the few times I remember Belichick taking some of his own football-smarts medicine with a big game on the line.

crystalline · Nov 10, 2015

RedOctober3829 said:
www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/1st-half-points-per-game[/URL]
And gave up the 14th least. (19th most)
www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-1st-half-points-per-game

Dahabenzapple2 · Nov 10, 2015

I've watched all the Giants games and I think those defensive and offensives numbers are representative of who they are.

The worst D in the league. Without horse shoes, Pats put up 40+ despite no Lewis
48-24 blow out.

2007 and 2011 don't matter any longer. I'm usually very pessimistic but this game is no threat. Only huge drops or unlucky bounces can stop Brady, Gronk, Edelman, Amendola, LaFell & Blount. Me thinks BB gives White more of a shot than Bolden in the Lewis role. I hope they come out fast(I'm a strong proponent of this approach) and throw as the secondary is as bad as it gets in this league - even if Prince is back. Good week to get the OL healthy. Some say Pierre Paul came on late but I saw him wave at the QB and never come close. Bucs win easy without the horrid drops

jablo1312 · Nov 10, 2015

crystalline said:
You obviously didn't watch the 2010 Super Bowl. Coughlin was not outcoached. In fact, the intentional 12 men on the field was one of the few times I remember Belichick taking some of his own football-smarts medicine with a big game on the line.

Not sure how Belichick took his "medicine" there? That was certainly an intelligent wrinkle from Coughlin, but that's about it. Maybe it came across wrong- I'm not saying Belichick has never been outcoached, just that as a fan I will take him and his staff over every staff in the league, and in any given week would expect them to coach to, at worst, a draw. Not that that always equals wins, because it obviously doesn't.

That game for me was about the Patriots getting out executed than "out-coached". Between the front 5 getting their shit pushed in (again), and one of the best decision-makers in the history of the league making two of the worst throws of his career (the safety and the INT to Blackburn) not to mention somewhat missing Welker. I think the Pats D, which we all remember was one of the worst passing defenses in recent memory, held up pretty well against the Giants. The thing that really bit the Pats was the lack of possessions; the Pats pissed two of their 8 away before they needed a miracle drive to win the game. The Giants controlled the ball and that was that. Gotta credit Coughlin for putting his team in position to win, and coming up with a defensive game plan that slowed the Pats offense down enough.

Anyways, just like every week, this week I will expect the Patriots to be put into a position to win the game more than their opponent. It's the safe bet with this staff. Whether they get outplayed or not is another discussion.

Toe Nash · Nov 10, 2015

I guess they are wearing the same uniform and have the same QB and coach as the team that played the games of their lives and had key strokes of luck to beat us, but not much else is similar. Fortunately I doubt the Patriots get as psyched out as the posters in this thread upon seeing Eli and handle their business. 35-20 win.

crystalline · Nov 10, 2015

jablo1312 said:
Gotta credit Coughlin for putting his team in position to win, and coming up with a defensive game plan that slowed the Pats offense down enough.

Yeah, I think we mostly agree. The above is what I'm saying - coaches that can come up with a defensive game plan to slow down the Pats regularly are few. Coughlin did it in the 07 and 11 games. I respect that.

It would be interesting to see a tape analysis of the Brady INT in 2011. I mostly have blocked out that game, but I wonder how much of the interception was driven by defensive deception, and how much by pure pressure rushing Brady into bad choices.

jablo1312 · Nov 10, 2015

crystalline said:
Yeah, I think we mostly agree. The above is what I'm saying - coaches that can come up with a defensive game plan to slow down the Pats regularly are few. Coughlin did it in the 07 and 11 games. I respect that.

It would be interesting to see a tape analysis of the Brady INT in 2011. I mostly have blocked out that game, but I wonder how much of the interception was driven by defensive deception, and how much by pure pressure rushing Brady into bad choices.

Brady actually spun out of pressure on the throw, rolled out, couldn't find anyone, and then heaved it towards Gronk, who was a few steps behind Blackburn. The ball was a bit underthrown and Gronk couldn't jump for it. Shivers.

GBrushTWood · Nov 10, 2015

I just want them to win so Belichick doesn't have a losing record against any team.

tims4wins · Nov 10, 2015

Any talk about revenge is dumb. Pats have to win to stay on top of the AFC. Pats will never be able to get revenge on 07 or 11. 11 was their chance, kind of, and they didn't get it done. We're on to 2015.

wiffleballhero · Nov 10, 2015

tims4wins said:
Any talk about revenge is dumb. Pats have to win to stay on top of the AFC. Pats will never be able to get revenge on 07 or 11. 11 was their chance, kind of, and they didn't get it done. We're on to 2015.

You are obviously right about the revenge issue with respect to people who have any degree of control over the outcome of the game. Revenge is really an experience for fans with our narratives about the history of the teams. These narratives probably mean almost nothing to the actual players, or sometimes suggest perverse improbabilities for the players (is Shane Vereen a heavy target of 'revenge' for say, Mayo, because of 2011?)

So sure, the offensive line trouble and the loss of Lewis loom larger than anything else, no matter how much the image of Asante Samuel not making the catch still stays with me.

None the less, this is still one of the harder remaining games (with @NYJ and @Denver) since it is in NJ and the Giants have had some moments of solid football. This is not Jacksonville or even the last week's team.

Hoya81 · Nov 10, 2015

BaseballJones said:
It was largely because Gronk was hobbled. A healthy Gronk goes and gets that ball, IMO. A healthy Gronk also catches the hail mary at the end. As it was, he was one yard away from getting it.

If Gronk was healthy, I don't think the game is that close.

BigSoxFan · Nov 10, 2015

Regardless of the shitty 4th quarter from hell in 2011, it was impressive how the Pats recovered from that early 9-0 deficit to take a 17-9 lead. I was sure after that Hernandez TD that we were taking it. I was most disappointed that the defense couldn't force the Giants to have a pressure kick to win the game. Also, that Branch drop over the middle of the field killed me.

Leather · Nov 11, 2015

I still can't believe the refs called grounding.

crystalline · Nov 11, 2015

drleather2001 said:
I still can't believe the refs called grounding.

You mean the never-before-and-never-again-after grounding call?

Still chaps my tookus now. Unbelievable. Difference in the game. Feels like an unnecessary makeup call for the tuck rule.

Just in the past two weeks I can think of equal or more egregious throws from Cousins, Rodgers, Cassell and Bradford that were not called. Rodgers does it twice a week from inside the pocket (and more from outside) it seems.

soxfan121 · Nov 11, 2015

BaseballJones said:
Brady got called for it against the Seahawks a few years ago at the end of the first half in a loss in Seattle. It was a typical "if nobody is open throw it out of the back of the end zone" play that happens a handful of times every NFL weekend, but Brady got called for intentional grounding and it ended up costing them the game. I've never seen it called on anyone besides Brady, and Brady has gotten called for it twice.

Your memory and anecdotes are not worthwhile evidence. Please put some more effort into proving your conspiracy theories.

johnmd20 · Nov 11, 2015

soxfan121 said:
Your memory and anecdotes are not worthwhile evidence. Please put some more effort into proving your conspiracy theories.

You're right, other than the fact that if you watch the Red Zone channel, you've certainly seen a multitude of balls flying out of the end zone, desperately tossed by QB's. And I have not once seen grounding called.

absintheofmalaise · Nov 11, 2015

Guys, use actual evidence when available, and it sounds like it should be. That's one thing we always took pride in around here and we've gotten away from all over the board and we need to get back to. And that's something you got in trouble for in your last incarnation here BaseballJones.

lexrageorge · Nov 11, 2015

In the Super Bowl, Brady threw the ball down the middle of the field. It is true that there was noone there. However, the reality is that 99% of the time, that is not called grounding. Maybe it should be; it is technically grounding by the rule book. But it never gets called when it's in the middle of the field; it's usually just considered a rushed pass that got away. Not necessarily blaming the refs or even claiming a conspiracy. Just pointing out that the call was one that is seldom seen even under more obvious circumstances.

I believe the 2015 version of Brady avoids both of his infamous grounding calls (Seattle and SB) by getting outside the tackle box first. And neither Logan Mankins nor Justin Tuck will be at Sunday's game, so there's that.

nothumb · Nov 11, 2015

tims4wins said:
Any talk about revenge is dumb. Pats have to win to stay on top of the AFC. Pats will never be able to get revenge on 07 or 11. 11 was their chance, kind of, and they didn't get it done. We're on to 2015.

This is how I feel. I would go even a step further and say the Giants are one of those teams where I don't really care about "revenge." They're not a division rival or a team that has a serious history of dirty tricks / whining / bogus conspiracy theories. They beat us in two Super Bowls mostly by playing over their heads, having things break their way and being a bad matchup for the teams we were running out at the time. In some sense we are lucky to HAVE a "rivalry" like that. The Bucs or the Jets or whoever would be lucky just to have a non-conference foe with a recent history in big meaningful games.

Not saying it doesn't drive me nuts to have dropped two Super Bowls to Eli, but my anger is more directed at the cruelty of the universe and the Pats' rotten injury luck.

soxfan121 · Nov 11, 2015

Players on the 2011 Patriots roster who are also on the 2015 Patriots roster:
Tom Brady
Julian Edelman
Rob Gronkowski
Matthew Slater
Stephen Gostkowski
Rob Ninkovich
Jerod Mayo
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Devin McCourty
Patrick Chung*
Dane Fletcher*
Ross Ventrone*

Players on the 2007 Patriots roster who are also on the 2015 Patriots roster:
Tom Brady
Stephen Gostkowski

kenneycb · Nov 11, 2015

absintheofmalaise said:
Guys, use actual evidence when available, and it sounds like it should be. That's one thing we always took pride in around here and we've gotten away from all over the board and we need to get back to. And that's something you got in trouble for in your last incarnation here BaseballJones.

What information is available outside of charting every incompletion made by a QB within the red zone?

absintheofmalaise · Nov 11, 2015

kenneycb said:
What information is available outside of charting every incompletion made by a QB within the red zone?

You can look up individual penalty stats on pro-football-reference.com/ and the give you the circumstances. The point was if people are going to make those types of statements then they should have some evidence to back up the statement. And sometimes that takes some work.

soxhop411 · Nov 11, 2015

“@DougKyed: Not spotted at Patriots walk through: Collins, Tre’ Jackson, Cannon, Vollmer”

Ed Hillel · Nov 11, 2015

Looks like Collins is probably out again. If he's still not back next week, I'll be worried he has something really bad like Mono. He got sick late last week, so hopefully still recovering from a flu or something.

Also, Cannon and Vollmer. Yikes.

RedOctober3829 · Nov 11, 2015

I'm really concerned about Jamie Collins. Wendell and Johnson have been put on IR and they had a mysterious "illness" as well. Jeff Howe says it was just a sickness for Collins, but now that 3 days later he's not at practice is a bad sign IMO.

Ed Hillel · Nov 11, 2015

I still think Wendell went to IR because Stork came back and BB didn't want to carry 6 interior linemen.

But, yeah, it's mildly concerning at this point.

Giants-Patriots: We're on to New York.

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