If Grant Williams hits 38% with defenders in his face and competently guards 2-5, he is a starter on over half the teams in the league.
Hard for me to see Williams competently defending a decent 2, and even a 3 might be a stretch, depending on that player's athleticism. But I agree that, if he approaches 40 percent from 3, he's a definite rotation guy.If Grant Williams hits 38% with defenders in his face and competently guards 2-5, he is a starter on over half the teams in the league.
Yeah, who shoots 38% with defenders in there face? My guess would be that Tatum would be the only one on the C's close. Smart takes some because the clock is winding down or no one else is doing anything, but he sure doesn't make 38%. Brown and PP seem to me to mostly get good looks.If Grant Williams hits 38% with defenders in his face and competently guards 2-5, he is a starter on over half the teams in the league.
Yeah sure, but I hope that nobody thinks that is possible. That would already be a like a 5 percentile projection for Grant.If Grant Williams hits 38% with defenders in his face and competently guards 2-5, he is a starter on over half the teams in the league.
Oh, I agree. It just seems kind of ridiculous to complian that he only shoots/makes wide open threes. That is what rotational players do if they want to stay in the league. If he all of a sudden increased his volume and difficulty while maintaining that percentage, he would be a damn fine basketball player.Yeah sure, but I hope that nobody thinks that is possible. That would already be a like a 5 percentile projection for Grant.
38% on open to wide-open shots, guarding most 4s, some 5s, and wicked slow 3s is possible. Let's shoot for that.
Not to speak for everyone, but good D and 38% would make him a useful player. Problem last year wasn't the 38% part.Sorry, but if all he has to do is hit 38% of his 3s, are people claiming Grant Williams was a good offensive basketball player last year? He hit 38% of his 3s.
Something isn't adding up.
Depends on what one means by "good offensive basketball player." I'd argue that shooting 38% on threes and playing good defense makes one a good role player by virtue of contributing something useful at both ends of the floor. But a role player, however good, is still just a role player.Sorry, but if all he has to do is hit 38% of his 3s, are people claiming Grant Williams was a good offensive basketball player last year? He hit 38% of his 3s.
Something isn't adding up.
He was at 4.1 3PA/36. That's not good volume, even if he is just taking wide open shots.
The point I was trying to make is that shooting 38% on 130-ish wide-open 3Ps (granted shortened season) means that he's turning down less than wide-open 3Ps. For GW to be a legit rotation player, IMO, he's got to start taking more 3Ps and not lose his efficiency - which generally means that he's got to start taking and hitting some contested 3Ps.Not to speak for everyone, but good D and 38% would make him a useful player. Problem last year wasn't the 38% part.
Shooting 38% on wide open shots and providing nothing else at that end wouldn't make him a good offensive player, just a sufficient one (if it came with good defense).
Yeah that's fair and well said. Not sure why that wasn't sinking in...The point I was trying to make is that shooting 38% on 130-ish wide-open 3Ps (granted shortened season) means that he's turning down less than wide-open 3Ps. For GW to be a legit rotation player, IMO, he's got to start taking more 3Ps and not lose his efficiency - which generally means that he's got to start taking and hitting some contested 3Ps.
the other way to put this is that IMO GW has to force defenders to take one more step closer to him when he camps in the corner to open up space for JT and JB. Which means that he will have to hit shots that are more contested.
The problem last year was that the "D" part was awful. If he had been the shooter last year he'd been his rookie year, and 15 pounds lighter, that's an ok back-of-the-rotation player.Sorry, but if all he has to do is hit 38% of his 3s, are people claiming Grant Williams was a good offensive basketball player last year? He hit 38% of his 3s.
Something isn't adding up.
He was at 4.1 3PA/36. That's not good volume, even if he is just taking wide open shots.
Exactly. 3-and-Bad D is not good role player. Shit, 48% and bad D isn’t a good role player or Steve Novak would have been a household name.The problem last year was that the "D" part was awful. If he had been the shooter last year he'd been his rookie year, and 15 pounds lighter, that's an ok back-of-the-rotation player.
I agree with you on this. Novak’s lack of athleticism and ability on the defensive end would show similar to IT3 right now in today’s game. He couldn’t stay on the floor back then due to his defensive game it would only be worse now when rotations must be sharper and quicker.Disagree on Novak. Actually think that archetype is even less useful in today's NBA.
The lack of athleticism is such a defense killer & there are many more shoot only players, they just aren't making a mark unless they also have the athleticism to create their own looks and/or play passable defense.
HRB has pointed this out already, but the "make a career of standing at the 3" days are over. People defend the 3 now, and you have to be able o get shots for your teammates, or defend. There is no "3 and no D" role. Like everything it is filtering down to high school and college. There are a lot of undersized kids who are lights-out shooters not getting recruited because a bigger kid just has t get there. Ironically the overall height on the perimeter is ticking up since a 6-7 guy closing you out makes hitting a three harder than that plucky 6'3 kid. sadly I think Grant may fall into this since he is the right spot and people shoot over him anyway. What happened to Danny Fortson 10 feet from the hoop is happening to him 20 feet out.I agree with you on this. Novak’s lack of athleticism and ability on the defensive end would show similar to IT3 right now in today’s game. He couldn’t stay on the floor back then due to his defensive game it would only be worse now when rotations must be sharper and quicker.
I think Grant fits the Posey comparison better than RL, though I don't like the Posey comparison for either one of them.On the broadcast (I think it was TOR), Scal was comparing GW to PJ Tucker by saying that people really like PJ Tucker as a player but Grant has better feet ("really good feet" is what I think Scal said), shoots better, and has more versatility to his game, particularly on defense.
So we're not the only ones. . . .
Does GW play "nearly starter minutes"?I think Grant fits the Posey comparison better than RL, though I don't like the Posey comparison for either one of them.
He's actually at 27.3 mpg his last 9, including 6 starts. If 19 is nearly 27, he's playing nearly the whole game. Who knows how much he'll play when the team is fully healthy but he's been playing. I'm around 75% sure he's not going to go back to playing 7:11 and 4:53 regardless of matchups going forward.Does GW play "nearly starter minutes"?
If Grant's not playing the 5, there's just not enough 2/3/4 minutes to go around to do that. Grant and Romeo are playing pretty well, let's keep them in the regular rotation. Nesmith isn't, and needs to earn it in practice or in the G League.With 3pt shooting down across the league, Grant/Romeo need to be fed 25-28mpg, with larger roles.
A high level 3 and D player is probably more valuable than less (which was speculated up-thread)
AN also needs to see the floor every game, DNP-CD is confidence draining and asset destroying
Please no Center minutes for Grant +If Grant's not playing the 5, there's just not enough 2/3/4 minutes to go around to do that. Grant and Romeo are playing pretty well, let's keep them in the regular rotation. Nesmith isn't, and needs to earn it in practice or in the G League.
Maybe, but the whole entire league is down. Regression to the mean is like .340 as a team, unless the entire league regresses. .369 to .344 is noticeable with the volume of 3 pointers teams shoot nowadays. (70+ attempts a game combined). It's an extra 1.75 3 pointers made per game.Several Celtic starters are shooting well below their previous career averages. That suggests that at least some regression to the mean is on the way.
Well Parker is primarily playing the 5, which I don't think anyone wants AN doing. JH is basically playing only garbage time minutes.Nesmith set some sort of consecutive 3pt record in practice. "Earn it in practice" is probably more of a crutch around here than NBA reality. AN is past G-League minutes, we saw that at the end of last season. Need to play/develop assets in order to get the veterans we need at the trade deadline. Oct/Nov/Dec is the time to do it.
The difference between AN & Parker/JH isn't large enough to play those JAGs.
Totally agree with the bolded. This team is in a tough place, needing to string together wins to stay in the playoff race, but also having guys like Nesmith and Pritchard who you'd like to develop. Right now those guys are like 11/12 on on the depth chart, so in competitive games they're just not going to see much in the way of minutes. Of course injuries will create some opportunities, but I'd rather see Grant and Langford get real rotation minutes (like they are) than split the minutes up too much.Please no Center minutes for Grant +
1-9 are rarely all healthy +
IME needs to stop misplaying Al at the 4
Nesmith set some sort of consecutive 3pt record in practice. "Earn it in practice" is probably more of a crutch around here than NBA reality. AN is past G-League minutes, we saw that at the end of last season. Need to play/develop assets in order to get the veterans we need at the trade deadline. Oct/Nov/Dec is the time to do it.
The difference between AN & Parker/JH isn't large enough to play those JAGs.
Agree with Grant & Romeo building up real mins/roles.Totally agree with the bolded. This team is in a tough place, needing to string together wins to stay in the playoff race, but also having guys like Nesmith and Pritchard who you'd like to develop. Right now those guys are like 11/12 on on the depth chart, so in competitive games they're just not going to see much in the way of minutes. Of course injuries will create some opportunities, but I'd rather see Grant and Langford get real rotation minutes (like they are) than split the minutes up too much.
Meanwhile, Desmond Bane is averaging 15.6 PPG and shooting nearly 39% from downtown on high volume. Nice work there, Danny. Really nailed that deal.Agree with Grant & Romeo building up real mins/roles.
top 7
8. Grant
9. Romeo
10. Kanter
11. Nesmith
12. Pritchard
13. Jabari
14. Hernangomez
15. Fernando
I see the argument for Nesmith DNP with a fully healthy roster, but that never happens
3pt shooting is at such a premium, it's worth the investment. Really need IME to get Nesmith in there for ~10mpg, there should be a payoff by the playoffs this year. The kid has a better stroke than Romeo/Grant, it's a comfort/confidence thing IMO.
Nesmith, Saddiq Bey and Bane were all grouped together as the best 3pt shooters in that draft. With Nesmith considered the best of the 3.Meanwhile, Desmond Bane is averaging 15.6 PPG and shooting nearly 39% from downtown on high volume. Nice work there, Danny. Really nailed that deal.
All true. And we could have had 2 of those 3. More bites at the 3 point shooting is always a good thing, especially for a team that couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat.Nesmith, Saddiq Bey and Bane were all grouped together as the best 3pt shooters in that draft. With Nesmith considered the best of the 3.
Bane is a byproduct of being older with a more mature physique. He was fed consistent minutes from Game 1 rookie year. Memphis is reaping the rewards of its minute's investment.
The biggest knock on AN initially was his defense, but he makes up for it with an aggressive approach.
Very good chance Danny doesn't take Bane anyway, not that it changes much. We'd just be asking for Bane instead of whoever he selected.Meanwhile, Desmond Bane is averaging 15.6 PPG and shooting nearly 39% from downtown on high volume. Nice work there, Danny. Really nailed that deal.
Drafting Pritchard was probably the bigger mistake, as much as I didn't like panic trading a first just to dump Kanter.All true. And we could have had 2 of those 3. More bites at the 3 point shooting is always a good thing, especially for a team that couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat.
In hindsight, going from Kanter to Thompson was a lateral move. Small move but had knock-on implications (draft pick/$$$).Drafting Pritchard was probably the bigger mistake, as much as I didn't like panic trading a first just to dump Kanter.
Agree, not sure where this team would be without Grant and Romeo's 3pt shooting. I'm a huge fan of having the complimentary players shoot corner3s efficiently, it bends the defense and opens up the entire middle of the floor for JAYs/DS.All true. And we could have had 2 of those 3. More bites at the 3 point shooting is always a good thing, especially for a team that couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat.
We keep trying to invest in Nesmith but he keeps failing in each of his opportunities. If Bane was shooting 21% from 3 or struggling defensively I’m sure he wouldn’t be playing regularly either. Bane is more of an example of a guy taking advantage of his opportunity than one being granted minutes without being productive.Bane is a byproduct of being older with a more mature physique. He was fed consistent minutes from Game 1 rookie year. Memphis is reaping the rewards of its minute's investment.
Exactly. Iirc, Bane was the first player he interviewed and never brought him back. There is zero evidence or even inclination that Ainge was ever interested in drafting Bane.Very good chance Danny doesn't take Bane anyway, not that it changes much. We'd just be asking for Bane instead of whoever he selected.
See Pritchard last year vs this year. Bad play, less minutes.We keep trying to invest in Nesmith but he keeps failing in each of his opportunities. If Bane was shooting 21% from 3 or struggling defensively I’m sure he wouldn’t be playing regularly either. Bane is more of an example of a guy taking advantage of his opportunity than one being granted minutes without being productive.
top 7
8. Grant
9. Romeo
10. Kanter
11. Nesmith
12. Pritchard
13. Jabari
14. Hernangomez
15. Fernando
This.IMO 3pt efficiency is mostly "form" with a combination of game reps, situation, confidence.
I think we'd all agree he has the form. I'd roll the dice on him, rather than playing the JAGs after him, since the delta is so low amongst them.
The Celtics have multiple options years on AN, I could care less about Jabari/Hernangomez, they should never see the floor unless it's Gino time.
I'd play AN ahead of PP also, who is another player that has zero confidence at the moment.