Eddie Jurak said:Did any of the above comps strike out at the rate Jackie Bradley has done?
The Gray Eagle said:The Holt thread has some suggested comps for Bradley in it, but they should probably go here instead.
Here's one: Michael Bourn. His first full year in the majors at age 25, he puts up a putrid 229/288/300 line in 514 plate appearances, for a sweet 57 OPS+. But after that, he gets better. The next season he puts up a 354 OBP in 678 PAs, and his OBP stays over .340 for the next 3 years, before he has an off-year after signing with Cleveland as a free agent.
There is no perfect comp. Bradley is nowhere near the base-stealer Bourn is but he should have occasional power and might be better defensively in CF than Bourn (who has won two Gold Gloves, whatever that is worth.)
Another possible comp: Darren Lewis. Excellent with the glove, had some seasons where he got on base decently but overall wasn't a good hitter. A valuable player when he had the OBP over .330, but not when he was under that mark.
A happier possible comp: Brett Butler. At age 25, Butler got 268 plate appearances in the majors and slashed a pathetic 217/291/225. His OPS+ was a hard to believe 44. But he got better and ended up playing 17 years, with a career OBP of .377 and a career OPS+ of 110, despite never hitting for much power. Butler was another guy who was much more of a base stealer than Bradley ever will be, but maybe Bradley can improve as a hitter like Butler did.
Sometimes when you break in young players, they are might have a terrible season, even if they eventually become good players. It's essential to have an in-house alternative. It would have been nice if they had brought in a RHH CF for Pawtucket before the season, but they went with the Sizemore experiment for CF depth instead.
Lewis wasn't the speedster Bourn or Butler were, but he stole 46 bases in '93 and 28+ 4 other times. I guess the interesting question is whether the speed was part of the reason these players developed, or whether their speed was just the reason they were given an opportunity.The Gray Eagle said:The Holt thread has some suggested comps for Bradley in it, but they should probably go here instead.
Here's one: Michael Bourn. His first full year in the majors at age 25, he puts up a putrid 229/288/300 line in 514 plate appearances, for a sweet 57 OPS+. But after that, he gets better. The next season he puts up a 354 OBP in 678 PAs, and his OBP stays over .340 for the next 3 years, before he has an off-year after signing with Cleveland as a free agent.
There is no perfect comp. Bradley is nowhere near the base-stealer Bourn is but he should have occasional power and might be better defensively in CF than Bourn (who has won two Gold Gloves, whatever that is worth.)
Another possible comp: Darren Lewis. Excellent with the glove, had some seasons where he got on base decently but overall wasn't a good hitter. A valuable player when he had the OBP over .330, but not when he was under that mark.
A happier possible comp: Brett Butler. At age 25, Butler got 268 plate appearances in the majors and slashed a pathetic 217/291/225. His OPS+ was a hard to believe 44. But he got better and ended up playing 17 years, with a career OBP of .377 and a career OPS+ of 110, despite never hitting for much power. Butler was another guy who was much more of a base stealer than Bradley ever will be, but maybe Bradley can improve as a hitter like Butler did.
BREF determines "power" or "finesse" pitchers by looking at strikeouts and walks.Al Zarilla said:BREF says JBJ is doing considerably worse against power pitchers (assume that means high mph, or fastball pitchers) than against finesse pitchers. .342 OPS vs. power, mid .600s vs. average and finesse. Still not a large sample size, and this is 2014 data.
Worth noting that "power" pitchers are generally better than "finesse" pitchers by this classification. the league as a whole has a 93 OPS+ against "power" pitchers, a 96 OPS+ against "average power/finesse," and a 106 OPS+ against "finesse."
Power pitchers are in the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. Finesse are in the bottom third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. Stats are based on the three years before and after (when available), and the season for when the split is computed. A split in 1994 would consider years 1991-1997 when classifying a pitcher.
OK, but aren't pitchers high in strikeouts plus walks also high mph guys? Also, FWIW, there have been a lot of gamethread posts all year saying he can't catch up with fastballs.williams_482 said:BREF determines "power" or "finesse" pitchers by looking at strikeouts and walks.
Worth noting that "power" pitchers are generally better than "finesse" pitchers by this classification. the league as a whole has a 93 OPS+ against "power" pitchers, a 96 OPS+ against "average power/finesse," and a 106 OPS+ against "finesse."
It seems like a good bit of overstatement to say Bradley has no speed or power. He certainly seems capable of 10-12 HRs and smart enough to give you 10-12 steals with a high success rate. The problem begins and ends with the ridiculous strikeout rate to me.Rudy Pemberton said:All those guys were prolific base stealers, though. JBJ is just a really weird guy. Tons of K's, no power, no base stealing ability isn't a great recipe for success. You don't see many players who are on the team solely for CF defense.
Aaron Hicks seems like a pretty similar player.
Rudy Pemberton said:All those guys were prolific base stealers, though. JBJ is just a really weird guy. Tons of K's, no power, no base stealing ability isn't a great recipe for success. You don't see many players who are on the team solely for CF defense.
Al Zarilla said:OK, but aren't pitchers high in strikeouts plus walks also high mph guys? Also, FWIW, there have been a lot of gamethread posts all year saying he can't catch up with fastballs.
I mentioned in last night's gamethread that even John Kruk was on him pretty hard for swinging for the fences when all that was needed was a single to tie the game. He's overswinging. Whether he did that in the minors, when he did hit, I don't know.
Savin Hillbilly said:The offensive comp that is starting to scare me--right down to the calls to stop swinging for the fences--is Donnie Sadler.
Rasputin said:
Sadler didn't have the offensive performance in the minors that Bradley has. Bradley's .842 OPS in AAA last year was higher than anything Sadler had even in his best season which, BTW, came in the Midwest League. Sadler's career minor league OPS was .717. Bradley's so far has been .876.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=sadler001don
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bradle000jac
Which is to say, I don't think you need to worry about this.
smastroyin said:Some guy named David Arias was at 21% for his minor league career. He must not have had much of a career, right? Manny Ramirez was 19%. Mike Napoli 26%!!! How did he ever make it with such a disturbing K rate?
Savin Hillbilly said:
You can get away with striking out that much if you're ripping the living crap out of the ball when you're not missing. How many guys have had substantial ML careers with a >20% K rate and a <.175 ISO, I wonder? I bet it's a pretty short list.
JimBoSox9 said:
A recent former Red Sox comes to mind immediately, turns out to be close but no cigar. Mike Cameron: 7884 PA, 1901 K, .249 BA, .444 SLG. .020 off on your ISO line, but in the ballpark. It's a good comp to illustrate a last sentence missing from the quoted above: The Short List is definitely probably made of up guys who play Gold Glove-caliber defense at a priority position, like Cameron and JBJ.
Paradigm said:It just gets back to the same problem the Sox have year-in, year-out with young players: the pressure to win a championship, the stress from the fanbase, and the team's ability to replace homegrown talent creates tension against the time needed for players to make adjustments, learn at the major league level, and develop into their full potential.
Unless you're Xander Bogaerts -- a truly elite talent -- it takes time to work out kinks and flaws, and it's very hard to do that in Boston. It's an ironic drawback of the team's exceptional player development system.
Lars The Wanderer said:Andres Torres was just signed to a minor league deal. Probably not related and just roster filler, but who knows?
Gordon was rushed to the majors after just one AA season. JBJ was rushed to the majors last year after just 61 AA games and fell on his face. This year he's been up again all year despite just 80 AAA of solid (not excellent) performance and his MLB struggles last year. Maybe teams wouldn't have to be so patient with these guys at the major league level if they were a little more patient with them in the minors.JimBoSox9 said:
This, a million times this. Alex Gordon is my current favorite example. 95 OPS+ through his first 1600 MLB PAs, 123 OPS+ in the last 2400 PAs. What major career-changing evolution happened right near that split? He turned 27. A guy with a track record like JBJ, there's just naught to do but hold on to your butts and count to fifteen hundred. Even then, you're looking at trendlines over the last quarter of the sample more than you're looking at the aggregate. A guy like Middlebrooks, more questionable bat and patience at all levels, still needs something in the 500-1000 range to draw a believable conclusion that the holes in their swing will cripple them. Sometimes, like Lowrie or WMB, circumstances conspire to string those thousand together in sub-optimal ways. The CBA Structure isn't real awesome for these late bloomers either. Stack that on top of all the big-market pressures you listed, and the necessary patience can seem impossible sometimes.
Rudy Pemberton said:We aren't talking about a guy with a 95 OPS+, though, we are talking about a guy with a 64 OPS+ and a K rate worse than Mark Reynolds, who has shown zero signs of improvement in his admittedly short MLB career. The examples of guys who have succeeded with high K rates is interesting, but it would be more relevant and informative to look at the guys who had stats similar to JBJ's to start the career...what happened to them (how many had success with their original MLB team)?
HriniakPosterChild said:
When Theo was a new GM, the Sox gave every minor league hitter a copy of Ted Williams' book. I don't know if they still do, but I hope so.
Ted's Rule #1: Get A Good Pitch To Hit.
No doubt Walt Hriniak is also still an influence.BosRedSox5 said:
He also called the home run the most important hit in baseball and instructed hitters to have a slightly upward swing. I don't think the boys have taken that to heart.
HriniakPosterChild said:No doubt Walt Hriniak is also still an influence.
BosRedSox5 said:
I never understood the whole taking your top hand off at the end of your swing. A lot of players release that hand in their follow-through but IMO you should wait until the very end of your swing. Seems like a way to get the most power, but it worked for Frank Thomas and countless others so Hriniak was right about one thing. Letting players find what works for them.
No, but if he even hits .650 OPS (.240/.320/.330) he'll be worth it.Plympton91 said:I do have to say, tonight sure highlighted how his defense, arm, and baserunning can generate a significantly positive contribution to overall WAR. That catch was excellent, and the throw was amazing. But, you can't survive in the majors, either individually or as a team, carrying a 580 OPS for 650 plate appearances.
Toe Nash said:Except he came in on the ball at first and shouldn't have doubled off Aviles if Aviles had read the ball better? Nice recovery, but what am I missing?
He's a great defensive player but I'm not sure this is the best example.
Lose Remerswaal said:Nice throw? Hell, it was two steps off of first!
Maybe SC Top 10 . . . as the 10th best play of the day
Red(s)HawksFan said:
I'm sure you jest, but making a throw from deep left-center to first base on one hop, even if it was a step or two wide of the bag, is something no Red Sox CF has been able to do in a long long time. Damon and Ellsbury would have three-hopped a throw to second from where Bradley was...maybe.