Jaylen Brown, Year 7
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And its not so much wont "defer to tatum for last shot" as he seemingly has no concept/ability of making those around him better. When JT is struggling he usually has 8 or more assists. Usually because of a double team or at least ALOT of Focus.
When JB is playing well he cant seem to elevate anyone around him.
I dont think its a coincidence that teams may be "letting JB get his, lets stop Tatum". And we have struggled.
Also you guys seem to think I am saying JB sucks. No. But he is not the player that Tatum (or 20 or so other players are). JB does ONE thing Very Well. Score. He doesnt rebound particularly well. He doesnt pass particularly well and he doesnt play defense particularly well. Those are not the ramblings of a crazy man. We have all commented as such. As a whole he is a very good player.....but he is Not a player who is gonna lead there team to a championship as its best player.
So on a night that Tatum is struggling. Be it Wrist, Double team or fatigue I have no confidence that we will win. JB is not a good enough player to compensate. Will we win some? Sure. Am i confident? No.
If you disagree i am fine with that. But I think that a player can have good stats (even advanced metrics) and still not contribute (enough?) to win consistently. JB seems to be in this category lately.
When JB is playing well he cant seem to elevate anyone around him.
I dont think its a coincidence that teams may be "letting JB get his, lets stop Tatum". And we have struggled.
Also you guys seem to think I am saying JB sucks. No. But he is not the player that Tatum (or 20 or so other players are). JB does ONE thing Very Well. Score. He doesnt rebound particularly well. He doesnt pass particularly well and he doesnt play defense particularly well. Those are not the ramblings of a crazy man. We have all commented as such. As a whole he is a very good player.....but he is Not a player who is gonna lead there team to a championship as its best player.
So on a night that Tatum is struggling. Be it Wrist, Double team or fatigue I have no confidence that we will win. JB is not a good enough player to compensate. Will we win some? Sure. Am i confident? No.
If you disagree i am fine with that. But I think that a player can have good stats (even advanced metrics) and still not contribute (enough?) to win consistently. JB seems to be in this category lately.
It depends on who his teammates are, no?
I mean, you said you'd rather have Butler than Jaylen (I assume you're not accounting for age, as Jaylen is 7 years younger). When Jimmy Butler was the best player on his Bulls team at age 26 (the same age as Jaylen now, sort of), they went 42-40 and had Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose. At age 27, Butler led them to an incredible 41-41 record. Then he went to Minnesota where he joined Wiggins and Kat, they got the 8th seed, and were knocked out in 5 games. Then they sent him to Philly during the following season, where he couldn't shoot in the playoffs and they got knocked out in round 2.Then he got shipped to Miami, where they've won, well, nothing.
If Jaylen Brown were officiated the way Butler is, this wouldn't even be a conversation, which is one of the benefits you do actually get when you're the alpha on a team.
I dislike the idea of player rankings in general, because there’s so much that goes into it. There’s ceiling raisers, there are floor raisers, then the rare players who are both. Then there’s a difference between top 20 or whatever players at this moment, or top 20 players you’d want to build around.
I think Jaylen is a ceiling raiser, and a damn good one. He’s not a guy who will elevate teammates much, which is reflected in the on/off stats over the years, but it also depends on what kind of team you have. I wouldn’t want to build my team around him, but for this team? I’d rather have him than some guys I’d rather start a team with. Trying to articulate that last part was….more complicated than I imagined lol.
I think Jaylen is a ceiling raiser, and a damn good one. He’s not a guy who will elevate teammates much, which is reflected in the on/off stats over the years, but it also depends on what kind of team you have. I wouldn’t want to build my team around him, but for this team? I’d rather have him than some guys I’d rather start a team with. Trying to articulate that last part was….more complicated than I imagined lol.
Final thought.
With Current Tatum (cause yea...he is sucking...and we really dont know why but its probably not because he forgot how to play), JB IS our best player.
How is that working out for us? We are losing Alot of close games. As far as teammates a "Diminished" Tatum, Al, Brogdan, White. Smart etc etc are probably as good a set of "The Pips" as your gonna find. And we are still losing alot of close games against not Great teams.
I have no problem JB going after the money if he chooses. But I think Whoever signs him is gonna be an 6-8 seed pretty consistently ie "No mans land". Unless he is teamed with a player as good as "Good JT" which seems......remote.
I am not even sure what else JB should be doing during our bad stretch (well I do but it seems beyond his very good skill set) ......but I know despite his best attempts.....its not enough.
When JT is playing "great" or "very good" we win regardless. When JB plays great or very good.....we are like .500
With Current Tatum (cause yea...he is sucking...and we really dont know why but its probably not because he forgot how to play), JB IS our best player.
How is that working out for us? We are losing Alot of close games. As far as teammates a "Diminished" Tatum, Al, Brogdan, White. Smart etc etc are probably as good a set of "The Pips" as your gonna find. And we are still losing alot of close games against not Great teams.
I have no problem JB going after the money if he chooses. But I think Whoever signs him is gonna be an 6-8 seed pretty consistently ie "No mans land". Unless he is teamed with a player as good as "Good JT" which seems......remote.
I am not even sure what else JB should be doing during our bad stretch (well I do but it seems beyond his very good skill set) ......but I know despite his best attempts.....its not enough.
When JT is playing "great" or "very good" we win regardless. When JB plays great or very good.....we are like .500
Since it was brought up earlier, Jimmy Butler would be a terrible fit on this team. He’s a piss poor shooter who needs the ball in his hands. He’s also notoriously difficult. And if you think Jaylen raises a stink about being the “alpha”, you’re going to love Butler’s attitude
This.
Its weird how JB CAN indeed carry a team for 6-7 mins.....then seemingly disappear... or perhaps more fairly.....come up short when you really need a basket. Hell he can carry a team for 6 mins then go cold for 10 then carry for 6 more.....then go cold. Thats not a recipe for success even if the stats look good.
….:that’s because Tatum is still taking the most shots on the team all throughout this stretch.
Since you brought this up, who would you prefer to be “Robin” here? I saw Butler and addressed that above, it would not work
I feel like this is pretty heavy hyperbole, to be fair. For the playoffs, Jaylen had a -0.2 on/off, Tatum was +12.7. That’s not about any of their own stats, it’s literally how the team played with them on and off the floor.
I dont "Think JB raises a stink about being an Alpha"
What I said was "he begins to believe in himself too much" He has his 6-7 mins of hot and begins to think I can do this for 20-25. He gets cold and doesnt adjust. So then he takes dumb shots. So "he begins to think he is an Alpha".
Too many are suggesting that I somehow think JB is in the locker room Bitching at JT and CJM and shitting in both their lockers. No. in the Flow of the game.....he begins taking shots he shouldnt. When PERHAPS....he should be looking to pass.
What I said was "he begins to believe in himself too much" He has his 6-7 mins of hot and begins to think I can do this for 20-25. He gets cold and doesnt adjust. So then he takes dumb shots. So "he begins to think he is an Alpha".
Too many are suggesting that I somehow think JB is in the locker room Bitching at JT and CJM and shitting in both their lockers. No. in the Flow of the game.....he begins taking shots he shouldnt. When PERHAPS....he should be looking to pass.
Tatum started off very well and faded heavily in the finals. I would say Jaylen was the best player on the team in the Finals. There was a reason why posters here wanted to posture as if Tatum needed to get his arm amputated he was so hurt…and it wasn’t because he was lighting the world on fire
Actually he’s been taking slightly less than Jaylen, like SLIGHTLY lol.
Since February 1st, 20 FGA a game for Tatum, 20.2 for Jaylen.
In March it’s 21.2 FGA for Jaylen, 20.7 for Tatum.
I do think there is something to this team maybe being better with Jaylen doing a little less, tbh. For the season when Jaylen takes 20+ shots, the team is 21-16, when he takes less than 20, they are 19-4. Him and Tatum put up pretty similar numbers in losses, as well, so it’s not as simple as “Jaylen takes more shots when Tatum is sucking.”
Their stats in March
Tatum:
29/10/5 on a 58.5% TS, +2.1 net rating with him in, and +4.7 when he’s off, which should never be the case lol.
Jaylen:
28/6/4 on a 59.2% TS, +1.8 net rating with him in, and +8.5 when he’s off.
This is their numbers, and how the team plays with them in. Tatum has just been super inconsistent, and we need him to be much better if the Celtics are going to win it all. Tatum just has set a much higher bar, and is rightfully being held to a much higher standard.
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If JB doesn't play very good or great when JT is struggling, we aren't .500. We'd probably be .200. That's the distinction you're missing.
Since 2/1, Tatum is shooting 43.7% from the field and 33.2% from deep. He's taking 20 shots a game, including 9.7 from deep.
Over that same time period, JB is shooting 48.8% from the field, and 37.9% from deep. He's also taking 20 shots a game.
JB is the reason they aren't the 4th seed right now. If Tatum is continuing to shoot like this, and JB is shooting like this, I want JB taking way more shots than Tatum. This is pretty simple math. And during this stretch, Jaylen's assists have gone up and his turnovers have gone down, while Tatum's assists have gone up, but so have his turnovers. JB's 12 games since he JT broke his face are even better, he's shooting 50.2% from the field and 38.7% from deep on 21.4 shots per game since putting the mask on over 12 games.
The idea that we want Jaylen taking less shots when he gets on a heater, and Tatum taking more shots when he's clearly in a funk just makes no sense to me, at all.
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You and I are mostly on the same page, but just want to note these numbers get skewed pretty heavily by blowouts.
In those games where he takes less than 20 shots, he's averaging around 31.4mpg as opposed to his season average of 36.2mpg, and he's taken 18 shots 7 times, and 19 shots 4 times.
Oh for sure, there are multiple circumstances that play into it. Guys missing games, how other guys are playing, etc. But there is a STARK difference in these numbers.
Celtics record
Jaylen taking 20+ shots: 21-16
Tatum taking 20+ shots: 35-9
Jaylen less than 20 shots: 19-4
Tatum less than 20 shots: 13-11
Jaylen’s top 25 usage games: 17-8
Tatum’s top 25 usage games: 23-2
Jaylen’s 25 lowest usage games: 19-6
Tatum’s 25 lowest usage games: 12-13
I don’t play the comparison game with them, it’s stupid lol. But all these numbers show me is that we can handle it when Jaylen isn’t at his best, or doesn’t have the ball as much. In Tatum’s case, even when his shot isn’t there, he’s able to contribute to winning in so many other ways, which is of course the difference between an all star and a superstar. I’d assume a big part of it is how Tatum is defended, teams are gearing up to take the ball out of his hands and making Jaylen/everyone else beat them, etc.
Tatum needs to be held to a higher standard, which is why even with similar ppg and TS as Jaylen, his play lately just isn’t nearly enough of what they need from him.
I agree with that. That said, Jaylen's top 25 usage games translates to what, a 55 win season or so?
Seems like a guy you can build a winner around in the NBA, if you put the right pieces around him.
I love the idea of team building lol. If you were going to build a team around Jaylen, you’d need a guy who can really create at pg, bigs who can shoot and spread the floor, and a deep bench. Haliburton may end up better, but as of now I’d consider Jaylen the better player.
Haliburton
Jaylen
Harrison Barnes
Wendell Carter Jr @tbb345 approves lol.
Myles Turner
I think a team like that would be a 45-50 win team, and probably gets to the second round. Like I said above, it’s why I hate doing player rankings and all that lol. While I don’t think Jaylen is a guy you want to build around, that’s entirely different from him not being a guy you could build around. Of course you could build a good team around him, it’s just harder lol.
I think people go too far with some of the anti Jaylen stuff. I may not be as high on him as some, but not many guys who were third overall picks and made multiple all star teams would be willing to be the second guy. And while he may eventually decide to want his own team, he’s clearly put the team above himself.
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This is hard to quantify with stats but the way Tatum has played the last 3 games is a death knell for this team. It reminded me of Tatum last year before the switch went off….a lot of aimless dribbling, settling, not involving his teammates enough. Aesthetically it’s a style of basketball I absolutely hate watching (even if the shots go in)
I hold Tatum to a much higher standard as a playmaker. That’s what really separates him and Brown. Scoring wise I think they are very very close but Tatum has an ability to set up the defense and help out his teammates that JB doesn’t have. Thats why it’s so frustrating for me to watch him play like he has recently…possessions where he drains the clock to set up a 3 pointer when he can’t hit the broad side of the barn on 3 point attempts recently. That type of stuff infuriates me much more than the Jaylen brain farts because those are in the moment mistakes whereas the Tatim stuff seems almost planned and willful.
When the Celtics are in world destroyer mode, Tatum is decisive, makes quick decisions and gets his teammates involved. Even if he’s not shooting well, they can play with the best of the best when he’s like that. If he’s not shooting well and he tries to play like Rockets era Harden, they can’t win it all
I think Tatum was atrocious in the rockets game, crappy in the Wolves game, really good in the Blazers game, and Meh in the Jazz game.
To me, the Jazz game was different with regards to the ball movement and all that. He was getting hard trapped all game, had 17 potential assists (a ton lol), and 4 hockey assists. I thought he shredded their defense, just wasn’t aggressive enough with his own shot, especially in the second half. He had 15 on 8 shots in the first half, and 0 on 4 shots in the second. I don’t care how much he’s setting up other guys, we aren’t winning anything if a Tatum takes 4 shots in a half lol.
Jaylen had 13 potential assists in the Jazz game as well, I LOVED the ball movement.
If Tatum and Jaylen combine for 30 potential assists in a game, I think it's really hard to beat this team unless none of the other guys shots are falling. And on top of that, Grant's shot was falling.
That said, I'll go to my grave saying that if Derrick White sees the floor in the 4th quarter, they win the game. Instead, it was Tatum/Brogdon/Grant playing the entire quarter, Jaylen playing 5:21 and Muscala/Kornet/Hauser playing a combined 18+ minutes. I know the reason Joe did it, the concern on the boards, but those 3 guys combined for 5 rebounds in that amount of time, while Kessler grabbed 6 by himself in 8:27 and the C's were outrebounded 14-8 anyway.
If you aren't getting the rebounds anyway, try to beat the bigs the other way, by running them off the floor.
Bill Simmons has Logan Murdoch (the author of the Jaylen piece) on his podcast. It is definitely worth a listen. My biggest takeaway thus far is that Murdoch says that the organization’s lack of response to the KD damaged Brown’s relationship with the team
I guess the underlying question is whether this relationship is repairable with either a championship (may be a stretch) or a super max (would be surprising if that wasn't enough).
The best thing both sides have going for them is that JB7 has been mostly healthy all season, while quite a few of the players up for All-NBA consideration have battled injuries of some sort or another. Brown will probably end up playing around 67-68 games this season. Neither Kyrie nor Paul George will reach 60; unlikely Harden does either. And neither LeBron nor KD will hit 50. And games played is supposed to matter to All-NBA voters.
Jaylen is a phenomenal basketball player - one of the very best in the entire world. But the NBA is filled with great players, and I think he would quickly find out that if he was a team's #1 player, their Batman, he'd need more than a really good Robin. He'd need Robin and maybe a couple of other Justice League members in order to win a title. MAYBE even a teammate who is...better than him. Even if he's got the Alpha label (however that would even work). Like, you could argue that Durant on the Warriors was a better player than Curry, but Curry was still the Alpha. I'm trying to think of other scenarios where the best player wasn't the Alpha.
With White starting 61 games + Smart starting 55 games, the Celtics' Media group needs to tell the world (voters) that Jaylen Brown is a Small Forward. I know these designations are silly, but he has a much better chance at All-NBA as a Forward and not Guard.
I think Brown would appreciate any effort the Celtics put into this. I know Tatum is still pissed about the voting (which cost him $$$) a few years ago, and it was this very issue "Guard? or Forward?" that screwed him.
https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2021/06/17/jayson-tatum-lost-out-on-millions-because-of-strange-nba-voting-rules/
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I guess one of the things I don't quite understand is that for Jaylen, his next contract with the Celtics is pretty much already set. This isn't like Xander Boagerts. The Celtics will offer him the most they can in line with the CBA. Jaylen certainly must know this. So, what's with the pre-pouting about fair compensation?
Read the entire interview; he is not pre-pouting.
He is making it clear that if he’s eligible for the super max, he is unlikely to settle for less just to remain in Boston.
In the interview with Simmons, Murdock heavily implies that Jaylen feels slighted by the organization for the constant trade rumors and not publicly shutting them down. Specifically the ones this summer involving Durant.
It’s in the piece but he took it upon himself to call Brad and Tatum to ask them what was going on and where he stood. I imagine when you reach the level of status that Jaylen has as a player, especially when you’re just coming off of an NBA Finals appearance, you don’t expect to see your name being floated in trade rumors with no response from the team. Both Murdock and Simmons were heavily critical of how the organization handled the Durant stuff especially knowing the type of person Jaylen is. In the end, it could all be moot but it does seem like a pretty big unforced error by Brad and Tatum (IMO, more by Tatum since that portion was completely unnecessary)
Not really sure what the team could have done about Tatum. Tatum has the right to work out with whomever he pleases during the offseason, and he has the right to post it on Instagram. If Jaylen is taking offense to it, he should work it out with Tatum.
As for the trade rumors, I can see the team deciding to not respond to every single trade rumor reported by every single Gary Washburn wannabe. Especially if the team thinks those rumors were being planted by KD's agent. And Wyc did call him when the second round of trade rumors started floating around.
I just don't agree that's a point that needs to be made. No player who is eligible for the super max takes less. It just isn't done.
Jaylen Brown has a leadership position with the NBAPA while the union is negotiating a new CBA with the league. So his comments are going to be very much pro-player and slightly adversarial to team ownership.
AD and Kawhi essentially turned down the super max by forcing trades, but that's pretty much it. Jaylen isn't on their level (and I believe his position in the union means he'll grab the bag if he can).
I don't think there's much to read into this, honestly. If Brown is eligible for the super max, the Celtics will offer it and he'll accept. If he's not, they'll offer the standard max (when they can), and he may or may not accept. He may not know the answer to that second question, and he's being honest here. If he's learned anything useful from Kyrie, it's not to promise something and then back out later.
I think too many people are assuming that Wyc/Brad will pay Jaylen the supermax if he’s eligible. This shouldn’t be assumed at all and Jaylen could very well feel that it isn’t either.
The problem with that is Paul George, Lebron, KD votes don't matter to Jaylen.
You can either be a guard or a forward. By all accounts, Jaylen will be listed as a guard, so there are only 6 spots up for grabs. So he needs to beat out FIVE of the following to get an All NBA nod at guard: Curry, Kyrie, Doncic, Trae Young, Booker, Mitchell, SGA, Halliburton, Morant, Lillard and Fox.
I think the centers are probably already set between Jokic, Embiid and AD/KAT.
That leaves the 6 forward spots. You have Lebron, KD, Tatum, Kawhi, George, Butler, Maarkkanen, Adebayo, Siakam, DeRozen...
The path for Jaylen to get All-NBA is almost solely contingent on them making him a forward, instead of a guard. @benhogan has it exactly right. Jaylen is seen as a #2 around the league, but he's simply not. White/Smart are both starting, and have been for a LONG, long time, and when one of them comes out, Brogdon goes in.
Jaylen Brown is almost always a 3 on the floor, and as a result, he should be a forward. This is what fucked Tatum previously, and the C's need to get out on front of this and campaign for him, both to end this shit about the KD Trade talks, and to make sure one of their players doesn't get fucked again (although from a financial standpoint, it's against their interests). If they start doing that, we can put to bed some of the "I realize it's just a business to the organization" stuff we keep hearing welling up.
You think they'll let him walk for nothing in return? What do you think they can get back for him and from who?
Agreed it's going to be rough, and it's off topic but I have to address it: There's no way AD or KAT get all-NBA center. They've played 67 games combined (KAT in particular would be a Palmeiro-esque blunder), and considering both teams have been massive disappointments, they've got no shot. The 3rd team center will either be Sabonis or Bam (he's played center all year, he'll be on the ballot as a center).
Yeah, completely forgot Sabonis. He should absolutely get it over KAT or AD.
I wouldn't be surprised if the stupid league gives it to Bam, and then puts Sabonis as a forward. Who the hell knows, but you're definitely right about those 2 being ahead of KAT/AD.
It's only those that are bearish on Jaylen that are suggesting that this is a possibility. Or contrarians.
edit: that's not fair. There's a subset of people who think that Celtics ownership is cheap for some reason. Them too.
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100%. I think Daryl Morey is a toolshed but he is out there campaigning for his guy (albeit in a stupid manner). That matters to the players and fosters goodwill. It’s incredibly minimal effort and an easy way to get some good vibes going with Jaylen. Brad and team should have been on this yesterday
I was calling out Tatum the teammate not the organization when I brought him up. And, as I said, I think taking the time to call Tatum shows JB did take offense to it and he did try to work it out with Tatum.
The KD trade stuff was way more than some random blurb from a dope like Gary Washburn. That stuff was reported by all of the heavy hitters (Woj, Shams) and the team didn’t stem the tide at all.
As far as the Wyc thing, I am happy that he did it the 2nd time but he should have done it the 1st time as well
This is a fair callout. The Red Sox ownership put on a PR campaign for retired players FFS, and those guys are a bit clueless at times. This is a no brainer.
The difference is because of the weird supermax rules, the truth is the Celtics front office's best financial interest is for Jaylen NOT to make All-NBA, which is what makes the situation awkward. Morey has nothing to lose with Embiid winning MVP, he's already given Joel the supermax.
The downside of that is without the supermax, Jaylen, IMO, is 80% to walk away and sign elsewhere if I was a betting man. So the C's would basically be saying, the increase it would cost to sign Jaylen isn't worth the downside of losing him. It's bad messaging pre-voting, and it would be a fucking disaster if they didn't sign him to a super max if he did make All-NBA. I think putting Jaylen aside, that's also a message that would hurt the C's in the future at trying to lure young stars here...
At the end of the day, finding high-end talent and keeping them is the hardest thing to do in basketball. They have one of those guys now and wouldn't let him go in order to quibble over money. It just doesn't happen. Burden of proof is on anyone who thinks that the Celtics won't offer Jaylen every dollar available under the CBA in order to retain his services.
Yeah I agree; it's a good faith gesture. I also agree with the discussion regarding the Durant rumors and Brown feeling slighted by them. He just helped them get within a few games of a title, sweeping Durant's team in the process, and then he almost immediately had to endure speculation that he might be traded for Durant.