Whoa, somehow I missed this particular impact of being over the second apron. It seems like a massive consideration.
Jaylen Brown, Year 7
- Thread starter ifmanis5
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yep, it basically says 'your trade value on far out picks will be bad, then when the window is gonna be over and you're looking to rebuild you'll have to do it with bad picks.
Lot of trades that happen now don't if you know the far out picks are locking at the end of the draft.
Recency bias is a hell of a thing. Combine that with dumb turnovers and some people lose their minds.
I especially appreciate the posts that make it seem like Jaylen is a completely inept player or that he is sitting at home resting on his laurels (Jaylen is known as a maniacal worker who is constantly trying to improve, same as Tatum) or that he's at home throwing darts at a picture of Tatum fuming that he's not "Batman" (if you don't think those guys care about each other, find that post Game 6 video where the two of them have a long conversation and moment that ends with them putting their foreheads together, talking and hugging)
What's the calendar on the SuperMax? When can it be offered, and is there a deadline on when he has to accept it or not?
To be fair, I'm not following real estate closely in the Seaport but if it is still booming a condo seems to be real easy to flip at this point.
That said, I hate eschewing pure talent in the interest of getting 3 dimes for your quarter or guessing at another lesser player whom you THINK may have more tools for the postseason. With 2 rookie coaches, the Celtics have been 91-37 since 1/1/2022. I hate the idea of resetting your second best player right now.
The way I see it, you have an immediate 2-year window. Next season, before JB's extension would kick in, the Cs should still be able to stay under the second apron. Then in the 2024/2025 season when the extension kicks in, the Cs can go over the second apron once before the major penalties kick in. The key decisions regarding a trade of JB's large contract with 4 years remaining, playing 2 stars with all scrubs, or Brad saying screw it the draft and personnel flexibility are overrated would need to occur in the summer of 2025 before the second apron is exceeded another time.
NBA calendar year starts June 30th. So expect Brown to sign his Super Max first week of July.
Technically he cannot sign until after the July moratorium, so could be 2nd week. But I’m sure Stevens will have already made his intentions clear to JB long before then.
Basketball is also such a unique sport where ultimate success is really determined by having a couple of really star players. Having success in the regular season (or I should say being consistently competitive) is determined by having 10-11 players who reasonably good - when it comes to the playoffs it's a much shorter rotation.
The Celtics aren't playing right now because their star player rolled his ankle and their second star player rolled his brain. It's not because they needed a modest upgrade from Sam Hauser to someone a little bit better.
You are right but the Celtics can announce they agreed in principle to an extension
Come on. They lost three other games. Winning Game 7 was the furthest thing from a foregone conclusion, and pretending that they automatically win with a healthy Tatum is the sort of silliness that had people talking absolute nonsense before the series started.
It's just an example that to win you need a couple of really good players. You don't need win by having a better 10th man on your roster than the other team's 10th man.
I think they have to look to find ways to upgrade their playmaking, shooting, and perimeter defense and lengthen their front court rotation. I'm not sure how they accomplish that given the make up of the rest of the roster and their cap situation. In an ideal world, I'd trade JB this offseason and use that to retool the roster. However, this is not an ideal world, it is one limited by the leagues financial rules. When you consider this, I can't see how they can move on from JB.
Given his contract situation, I'd anticipate they are not going to get a return substantial enough to warrant trading him. I haven't heard one trade idea mentioned so far that makes the C's better next season or several seasons down the road. If there is one out there, I'd support them pursuing it; I'm just having a hard time seeing it. With that in mind, I fully expect them to offer him a near Super Max contract and I fully expect JB to sign it. It's his best chance to make the most amount of money. As much as the situation in Boston is not ideal for either the team or the player, it's likely the best both can do right now. This effectively punts the JB question until next summer because if they sign him they can't trade him until next year. And given the new CBA, I think this ends up punting the JB question until after the 2025 season when the apron comes into play.
The C's seem to have two choices: (1) reboot now when you don't have much leverage, get a return that's probably cents on the dollar, and hope this doesn't piss JT off to the point that he opts not to sign his next deal; or (2) run back the best young duo in basketball the next two years and hope they figure it out and then retool after that for the second half of JT's prime. Maybe, JB can figure out how to provide more value on the court when his shot is falling (like Tatum has) or how to drive without turning the ball over with such frequency.
Given his contract situation, I'd anticipate they are not going to get a return substantial enough to warrant trading him. I haven't heard one trade idea mentioned so far that makes the C's better next season or several seasons down the road. If there is one out there, I'd support them pursuing it; I'm just having a hard time seeing it. With that in mind, I fully expect them to offer him a near Super Max contract and I fully expect JB to sign it. It's his best chance to make the most amount of money. As much as the situation in Boston is not ideal for either the team or the player, it's likely the best both can do right now. This effectively punts the JB question until next summer because if they sign him they can't trade him until next year. And given the new CBA, I think this ends up punting the JB question until after the 2025 season when the apron comes into play.
The C's seem to have two choices: (1) reboot now when you don't have much leverage, get a return that's probably cents on the dollar, and hope this doesn't piss JT off to the point that he opts not to sign his next deal; or (2) run back the best young duo in basketball the next two years and hope they figure it out and then retool after that for the second half of JT's prime. Maybe, JB can figure out how to provide more value on the court when his shot is falling (like Tatum has) or how to drive without turning the ball over with such frequency.
How many times can I say Jaylen is really good? Really good players have strengths and weaknesses, and really good players can have a good or bad series.
Jaylen is just not a particularly "synergistic" player. That can be good and bad... he doesn't need to fit in with anyone because he can just do his own thing and be valuable. But he's not someone who really who plays well with others or will elevate the rest of the team.
Basically, I agree the fit with Tatum is fine. Mostly because Jaylen isn't going to fit in great with anyone and that should be OK (in theory) given we have Tatum and a bunch of other good players.
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For the record I think barring a really good trade offer the Celtics should keep Tatum and Jaylen if at all possible.
I also don't know the logistics of the timing for potential offers, but my understanding is the Celtics can offer 5/295 and any other team can offer 4/189. Is that right?
I understand Jaylen wants top $ and there are some emotions at play here, but I also feel like there should be some non SuperMax middle ground here that makes more sense for everyone.
Is there something preventing the Celtics from offering 5/230 range? Might make future roster building a bit more feasible and Jaylen still does better than he can do anywhere else.
I also don't know the logistics of the timing for potential offers, but my understanding is the Celtics can offer 5/295 and any other team can offer 4/189. Is that right?
I understand Jaylen wants top $ and there are some emotions at play here, but I also feel like there should be some non SuperMax middle ground here that makes more sense for everyone.
Is there something preventing the Celtics from offering 5/230 range? Might make future roster building a bit more feasible and Jaylen still does better than he can do anywhere else.
They could offer but I think he'd force their hand with a sign and trade. If he's eligible, I think it's really unlikely he gets less than the SuperMax somewhere. And he shouldn't settle for less.
Nobody else can give him the supermax and he can't be extended and traded. To get the supermax he needs the Celtics to offer it he needs to sign it and he then can't be traded for one year
Perhaps I'm reading too much into the bolded when you're really talking about the underlined part.
I agree that he doesn't do the type of stuff implied in the underlined. He's not a great playmaker for others. His assist%, which increased after his first few years markedly, has stabilized in the "not really a playmaker for others" zone, and it's probably going to stay there.
But the bolded "doesn't play well with others" is the part that I took issue with. You don't need everyone on the team to be guys that create shots for others. The team already has Smart, Brogdon, and Tatum as guys with assist% over 20%, with White just a hair under. There are already plenty of guys that are damn good at sharing the ball, and Brown himself isn't a dead zone at 16.5%-17.9% the last few years. He plays just fine with others.
I think the fit thing is overblown like you. My main point is that "fitting in" isn't really a strength of Jaylen's game, he's not a particularly synergistic player, which is OK. Some guys need the right fit to maximize their value, I don't think Jaylen is one of them.
People saying JT/JB don't fit and need to be broken up I think don't really have a solution that's going to suddenly make Jaylen a better fit with another team. He's going to be really good, do his thing, and any team would love to have him (at the right price).
Which is why (if you take the emotion out of it from Jaylen's side), the Supermax really doesn't have to be the only option for Boston here.
Is there something in the CBA preventing them from doing an extension now at less than the Supermax if Jaylen will agree? The gap here is so big between the Supermax and his max with any other team its very hard to justify for the Celtics. We're talking more than 100M guaranteed difference, not to mention luxury tax issues on top of that.
JB grudgingly taking less than the supermax from the Celtics would be interesting to see. If there are already friction points between him and the organization and/or teammates (and there may not be), I wonder how that plays out on the court for a full season before JB can demand a trade.
I think the Celtics will give him the full supermax.
Yeah I guess so, but if its 40-50M more than any other team can offer and sold to him as the only way to keep the core together? I dunno.
Certainly he may demand Supermax Respect or a trade... it just feels like that maybe there doesn't have to be a binary decision here. Perhaps I'm wrong.
Unlike in other sports, there is no mystery team and mystery contract out there. I'm sure Jaylen will get plenty of interest on 190M deal around the league, but everyone knows thats the best he can do unless its with Boston.
If Boston offers Jaylen less than the Super Max then he probably threatens to just take this to free agency next summer, which has the potential to be a very untenable situation for the team.
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He certainly could, but not sure that's untenable, just means they likely trade him, like the guys before him who have said they won't sign extensions... AD, Paul George (twice), Kawhi, Kyrie, Harden (twice), etc.
I know I mentioned up above that JB has taken less than the max before, but good luck agreeing at less than $50 million AAV. Good for JB if he takes around a 25% discount over what JT will get on his extension. The only way I see this happening is if the two guys agree to both sign friendlier deals to help build out the roster a la the Miami "big 3". (To be fair, I recall Wade taking a very minor haircut and Bosh took the biggest discount while LeBron got his full value.) However the NBAPA would not be a fan of a leader like Jaylen not taking his full market value.
I know there is a lot of ego at play and these negotiations don't go like they do in other walks of life.
But if someone offered me 20% more than I knew for a fact than anyone else would offer, I would eventually swallow my pride and take it (even if I knew they could theoretically offer 40% than anyone else).
I would definitely be on board with a 275M Tatum and 225M Jaylen mutual 500M agreement. If they each take a bit less maybe it will be more palatable, but perhaps wishful thinking.
295M for Jaylen (and more than 100M more than anyone else can offer) just starts to get silly and I think that article recently linked above lays it out pretty well. He's an asset at 190M, and likely low 200s. But at 295M it's harder to justify.
unless we have very different definitions of ‘condo’, i can’t imagine how the financial costs of buying one makes a lick of difference to someone making $40M a year
If they really want to play together their whole primes, maybe they’d be willing to take a little discount, but wouldn’t be that much. $225mn over 5 years for Jaylen isn’t an AAV raise over what other teams could offer, just an extra year. Maybe you could get him to take something in the $250-275mn range. If Tatum would take a small haircut too then you might be able to save $7-8mn/yr across the two deals.
I think it's pretty reasonable for the Celtics to open somewhere in the $250M-$260M range, that's a significant improvement on what he could get elsewhere while also given them some breathing room on repeater 2nd apron issues down the line.
Yeah even 250 for JB and 290 for JT would be at least create some semblance of room down the line. If they want to play together hopefully they can be convinced to both take a haircut as long as it's still more than anyone else can offer.
It starts to get really hard to field a team if you're paying over 600M for 2 guys that, while obviously great, can't completely win a title on their own.
“Once Tatum was injured, was the entire game plan to send Jaylen Brown to his left?” - Dan Le Batard
“That’s always the game plan.” - Caleb Martin
“That’s always the game plan.” - Caleb Martin
I’m not doing the big picture thing with Jaylen yet, the way the season ended is still too fresh. As for the playoffs, teams just completely negated him as the ball handler in the PnR. Force him to his left, and his score probability falls off a cliff, while his turnover rate does the opposite.
The best defenses are always going to give Jaylen hell when he’s setting up from the top.
View: https://twitter.com/lissnx14/status/1664040441925496832?s=20
The best defenses are always going to give Jaylen hell when he’s setting up from the top.
View: https://twitter.com/lissnx14/status/1664040441925496832?s=20
I was responding to the posted tweet implying the condo sale could mean JB is staying, to allude to the fact it doesn't really mean much. He probably doesn't much care if he is sitting on a condo in the Seaport while playing elsewhere if it comes to that.
Jaylen's role in a halfcourt offense should be catch and shoot or catching at the foul line/high post for some mid-range action. PnR not so much. He is much better on the fast break with taking the ball all the way towards the basket.
Marcus, on the other hand, appears to be crap on PnR while ALSO throwing stupid passes or lobs in transition. So either pace he is not converting.
This why i was so frustrated he was almost always just standing at the top. the few off ball actions they ran were for Tatum. Also I am a broken Heinsohn record, Jayeln is so good in transition I don't get why they chose not to run so often.
He has pretty good numbers regular season the last 3 years and last year's playoffs in terms on ballhandler
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/ball-handler?SeasonType=Playoffs&SeasonYear=2021-22
This regular season was actually the first year he has been good in transition, 50th percentile before then, it just feels like he's good because everyone is better in transition and his dunks are great.
Other playtypes:
Roll man in PnR... abysmal, sub 20th percentile most years
Iso... excellent last year, averagish this year and prior years, though very good this playoffs.
Post-up- bad this year, averagish the last few and in the playoffs.
Spot-up= good this year and 20-21, average or bad in the playoffs and last year
Overall I'd say that Iso and PnR ballhandler are actually Jaylen's two best playtypes, but he's inconsistent at just about everything, and that's what can kill you in a playoff series. I also think part of it is that in the playoffs his handle issues get exploited by good teams, he can still beat guys with his athleticism, but with good defenses and the looser foul calls guys get their hands in there are he loses it.
Thanks for bringing some numbers to clarify. I definitely agree that the reach in calls are really relaxed in the playoffs and that is part of Jaylen's conundrum. The hand being part of the ball becomes the wrist and forearm becoming part of the ball in the officials' eyes. JB's movements are super (when he is not slipping on ice for some reason) and he finishes through contact unlike earlier in his career so if it wasn't for the dribbling part he'd be near the tops in Iso drives.
I think it was game 5 they really started running and after that i thought I saw miami really busting their asses back. It takes two to tango in creating transition opportunities.
Martin, Highsmith, Vincent, Robinson I'm sure have all been thought of as guys who are 10th men or worse. Improving is improving.
1000000%. I can't fucking stand the Heat but you have to give credit to what they are doing. These are all players that no one thought highly of and they have developed them into key contributors on a Finals team...(although Duncan Robinson still has one of the 2-3 worst contracts in the NBA)
Perhaps, you haven't seen the state of luxury condos in Boston recently:
1 Dalton St., Unit 5801/5802, Back Bay
Price: $38,000,000
Size: 7,848 square feet
Bedrooms: 5
Bathrooms: 6 full, 2 partial
https://www.bostonmagazine.com/property/2022/10/11/one-dalton-penthouse/#:~:text=A penthouse unit at One,/2022, 2:40 p.m.
I'm being sarcastic, by the way, highly doubt Jaylen is paying anything close to that, but "side by side" condos likely means he's buying two of them and then putting them together.
Florida must be fertile grounds for player development. What the Rays, Heat consistently do is aggravating. Robinson's contract is bad but they sure as hell got some value for it this round, maybe enough to convince someone to take him at some point.
I don't think I will ever get over the Caleb Martin thing. The guy got cut by the freaking Hornets and was going to go to Europe.....and then he turns into Michael Jordan over 7 games against the Celtics.
I wrote about it a little more in depth in the offseason thread, but I find the hardest things in life to get over are those that I cant find a rationale explanation for...and the more I look at the numbers the more I think there is no rationale explanation for Martin's run these playoffs outside 'he got hot.' TLDR: Im not sure Ill get over it either.
I’m a broken record but this was a Disney movie. I will never forget this guy. He couldn’t miss. The shots didn’t look lucky. He wasn’t only bombing threes, he was taking dudes off the dribble and blowing by them and finishing with finesse or power when necessary. I wish I could have enjoyed it. It wasn’t one game and it wasn’t a fluke. He played like a man possessed and was robbed of ECF MVP.