grimshaw said:Perfect time for them to pounce with no one dominating the division for once. They've got a good shot in a short series.
Osuna and change for Porcello?RedOctober3829 said:Good to add an ace, but the rest of the Jays rotation is terrible. I hope they have another deal up their sleeve to add a legit #2 guy behind Price.
jon abbey said:Maybe just two awful days, but worth noting at least that NY has absolutely shelled Price the last two times they've seen him, last August and this April, 16 ERs in 4.1 IP combined:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/DET/DET201504220.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/DET/DET201408270.shtml
rembrat said:It would be horrific if the Jays finished the year underperforming their pyth by 9 freaking games.
glennhoffmania said:
Oh well in that case what a horrible move by Toronto.
glennhoffmania said:
Oh well in that case what a horrible move by Toronto.
Rudy Pemberton said:Two prospects, including a top 20 guy, for less than half a year of Price makes the return on the Lester / Lackey deals look even more disgusting.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
You are chronically incapable of considering context. First, Price is better than Lester, so the return should be better. Second, the Red Sox got Cespedes and a comp pick and then spun Cespedes for a full season of a young pitcher who had been growing in exactly the way you want to see a young pitcher grow. No one in the world thought Porcello was going to have a season like this. As for Lackey for Craig and Kelly, all of the indications we saw were that Lackey wasn't interesting in pitching in Boston for the league minimum. The Sox got a young pitcher with great stuff but command issues and took a chance on a former All Star hitter rebounding and providing some value. That didn't happen and Kelly has work to do before he'll be providing any real value, but they weren't getting a great return for Lackey in the first place, and it's too early to write Kelly off as a waste of that resource anyway.
And...hbk72777 said:Brian McCann vs David Price , 9 for 16, 3 homers 7 RBIs
Ellsbury is hitting 353 against him in 51 ABs
santadevil said:And...
Why are we cherry picking stats? Price will pitch against other teams than the Yankees. Toronto needs a good starting pitcher and they got one.
santadevil said:Price will pitch against other teams than the Yankees. Toronto needs a good starting pitcher and they got one.
Rudy Pemberton said:We can agree to disagree.
Snodgrass'Muff said:As for Lackey for Craig and Kelly, all of the indications we saw were that Lackey wasn't interesting in pitching in Boston for the league minimum. The Sox got a young pitcher with great stuff but command issues and took a chance on a former All Star hitter rebounding and providing some value. That didn't happen and Kelly has work to do before he'll be providing any real value, but they weren't getting a great return for Lackey in the first place, and it's too early to write Kelly off as a waste of that resource anyway.
So the Red Sox should have just given Lackey his walking papers and not even got two potentially good players in return? I realize the disappointment level in the performances of Craig and Kelly, but that's no way to run a baseball team.Rudy Pemberton said:They would have been better off giving Lackey his outright release than that trade.
Lester was pitching as well as Price this year, and had a pretty good track record- think they could have done better than Cespedes.
I think they boxed themselves into a corner by focusing on deals for "major leaguers".
We can agree to disagree.
Who were these top prospects available? From what I remember, the Pirates came in second on Lester and were refusing to offer any of their top prospects. As much as we loved Lester, he just wasn't in as high demand as Price was in a trade package or as a free agent.j44thor said:What GM's look at 5yr trends when deciding what price they should spend on a pitcher at the deadline?
For better or worse the vast majority look at what the pitcher is doing at that point in time.
Lester was actually pitching better than Price in his walk year 14/15, that has a hell of a lot more weight when it comes to trade value then what they each did in 2011. When you trade for a rental you are trading for 2+ months of performance. 3yrs ago has close to zero value to that equation. We aren't talking about signing someone up to a 5yr contract and trying to estimate future value, we are talking about what can they do this instant.
People defending the Lackey and Lester trade returns need to take off the rose colored glasses. The trades sucked then and they suck now. It was well known at the time that Craig couldn't turn on a fastball anymore and 1yr of Cespedes over 7yrs control of a few top prospects is terrible value.
LuckyBen said:Who were these top prospects available? From what I remember, the Pirates came in second on Lester and were refusing to offer any of their top prospects. As much as we loved Lester, he just wasn't in as high demand as Price was in a trade package or as a free agent.
LuckyBen said:Who were these top prospects available? From what I remember, the Pirates came in second on Lester and were refusing to offer any of their top prospects. As much as we loved Lester, he just wasn't in as high demand as Price was in a trade package or as a free agent.
Rudy Pemberton said:
Last year, when traded, Lester had a 2.62 FIP, 155 ERA+ in 143 IP. This year, when traded, Price had a 3.00 FIP, 156 ERA+ in 146 IP. Looks pretty close to me.
I don't really think what they did 3-4-5 years ago is relevant to their value for the rest of the season in which they are traded, but career wise, Lester has a 3.53 FIP, 121 ERA+ to Price's...3.24 FIP, 124 ERA+....
j44thor said:What GM's look at 5yr trends when deciding what price they should spend on a pitcher at the deadline?
For better or worse the vast majority look at what the pitcher is doing at that point in time.
Lester was actually pitching better than Price in his walk year 14/15, that has a hell of a lot more weight when it comes to trade value then what they each did in 2011. When you trade for a rental you are trading for 2+ months of performance. 3yrs ago has close to zero value to that equation. We aren't talking about signing someone up to a 5yr contract and trying to estimate future value, we are talking about what can they do this instant.
j44thor said:People defending the Lackey and Lester trade returns need to take off the rose colored glasses. The trades sucked then and they suck now. It was well known at the time that Craig couldn't turn on a fastball anymore and 1yr of Cespedes over 7yrs control of a few top prospects is terrible value.
ehaz said:
I thought this was acknowledged as being a load of media bullshit and rumors rather than 'all indicative"? There was never any attributable quote from Lackey suggesting he wouldn't honor is contract, and he sure is pitching for the minimum in STL right now. We can talk all day about how the front office "took a chance" on the Cardinal's version of Rubby De la Rosa and an absolutely cooked (and expensive) Allen Craig but plenty people hated the trade when it went down and everyone hates it now. That is absolutely deserving of criticism.
How about a PTBNL? Like Baby Vlad?Ale Xander said:Osuna and change for Porcello?
Snodgrass'Muff said:
It's not surprising in the slightest that you are refusing to look at anything but the narrowest possible slice of data that can support your position.
Care to back this up? Track record matters. Do you really think the fact that Price has always been this good and Lester was pitching this well in the run up to his hitting free agency, but sucked for a good year plus before that had no bearing on their respective values? It's not like he sucked in 2010 and was dominant after that. He was terrible in 2012 and was bad enough in the first half of the year before he was traded that many people here didn't think the Sox had a shot in the playoffs with him leading the way.
And people writing Joe Kelly off already are wearing blinders. He's got great stuff and didn't start pitching until he got to college. He may not pan out, but that doesn't mean he was a bad bet to make. Hell, when you look past his ERA, he hasn't even been that bad this year. 4.37 FIP and a 4.19 xFIP, which are pretty well in line with his 2014. If he ends up being a solid middle of the rotation pitcher, the Lackey trade ends up being pretty good value.
Also, if you can provide us with a list of the prospects they passed on to take Kelly and Craig or Cespedes, I'd appreciate it. We have no idea what was available and what they turned down, so your claim that 1 year of Cespeds (1.5 actually) wasn't as valuable as cost controlled prospects rings a bit hollow to me.
JimD said:Lackey tied Ben's hands by letting it be known that he was unwilling to play in Boston at the league minimum.
Ben is also the same guy who turned two months of Andrew Miller into EdRod, so I find it hard to believe that he was turning down prospect-laden offers for Jon Lester.
j44thor said:
If only there was a comparable pitcher to Lester who was pitching considerably better in 14 than he had in his decent but certainly not illustrious career to that point. Someone say with a FIP in the mid 3's 2010-2013 who suddenly had a 3.09 FIP in 2014. Granted he had one extra year of control but he brought back a top 5 prospect in baseball.
As for Kelly, I mean if you are defending his 2015 season then really what is there to discuss? He is averaging 5.18 IP per start and putting up terrible #'s while in there. So not only does he put the team behind when he starts but he also burns the bullpen just about every start. It would be one thing if he was going 6+ per start with a poor FIP of 4.4.
He's got Matt Barnes on his fantasy team. There's no arguing with him about cost controlled pitchers on the Red Sox.j44thor said:
If only there was a comparable pitcher to Lester who was pitching considerably better in 14 than he had in his decent but certainly not illustrious career to that point. Someone say with a FIP in the mid 3's 2010-2013 who suddenly had a 3.09 FIP in 2014. Granted he had one extra year of control but he brought back a top 5 prospect in baseball.
As for Kelly, I mean if you are defending his 2015 season then really what is there to discuss? He is averaging 5.18 IP per start and putting up terrible #'s while in there. So not only does he put the team behind when he starts but he also burns the bullpen just about every start. It would be one thing if he was going 6+ per start with a poor FIP of 4.4.
You bring up Samardzija, but he came along with another pitcher and was probably one of the worst( or best for the Cubs) trades in the past few years. A better example would be to look at Price last year, which netted Smyly and Nick Franklin. Many people were questioning why the Rays took so little. Id take the Tigers haul this year over the Rays last year.j44thor said:
If only there was a comparable pitcher to Lester who was pitching considerably better in 14 than he had in his decent but certainly not illustrious career to that point. Someone say with a FIP in the mid 3's 2010-2013 who suddenly had a 3.09 FIP in 2014. Granted he had one extra year of control but he brought back a top 5 prospect in baseball.
As for Kelly, I mean if you are defending his 2015 season then really what is there to discuss? He is averaging 5.18 IP per start and putting up terrible #'s while in there. So not only does he put the team behind when he starts but he also burns the bullpen just about every start. It would be one thing if he was going 6+ per start with a poor FIP of 4.4.
j44thor said:
When did Lackey say he would only go to STL? Lackey didn't have a NTC that forced Ben to take the STL offer.