Jackie Bradley, Jr. is a free agent.
The 30 year-old has a career 92 OPS+, a sterling defensive reputation that is backed up by only some of the statistics. But as we all fondly remember, he had two All Star caliber seasons in 2015 and 2016, a two-year span in which he posted a line of .262/.345/.489. And an ALCS MVP!
Baseball-Reference has him at 16.2 career WAR. Fangraphs is more skeptical at 13.4, and UZR actually thinks he is a tic below-average as a CF this season. But the new Statcast outfield statistics love him. Over the life of the statistic, Outs Above Average has him as a top-tier OF, trailing only Inciarte, Cain, Hamilton, Betts, Kiermaier and Buxton, and only by a handful of runs over 3 seasons. There's no 2020 leaderboard yet, but he is labeled as 99th percentile in that stat; it's safe to say he'll rank well when that comes out. People (among them me) have looked at that disparity and speculated that something about the way the Sox set up their OF might hurt him on the DRS/UZR methodology, and his sprint speed is nothing special and unlikely to improve in his 30s.
Either way, 16 or 13 WAR is pretty great return on a supplemental first-round pick. He was a super 2, and has about $40m of earnings in his four arb-eligible seasons.
I think we all hope that Jarren Duran is our CF of the future, and that the future is soon. But I would be very happy to offer Bradley a two-year deal, with the expectation that he serves as the mentor/veteran presence to our young outfielders (Duran and Verdugo), starting for the first year and then stepping back to a fourth OF role when Duran is ready.
On a personal note, Bradley is my favorite active player, and I'll miss him if he goes.
(Literally, as I am typing this, he just made a great play against the fence to take a double away to try to drag Mike Kickham through this inning.)
In comments a few days ago, Chaim Bloom seemed to suggest the team was open to retaining Bradley after this season.
But...
https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1301256089506320384
The 30 year-old has a career 92 OPS+, a sterling defensive reputation that is backed up by only some of the statistics. But as we all fondly remember, he had two All Star caliber seasons in 2015 and 2016, a two-year span in which he posted a line of .262/.345/.489. And an ALCS MVP!
Baseball-Reference has him at 16.2 career WAR. Fangraphs is more skeptical at 13.4, and UZR actually thinks he is a tic below-average as a CF this season. But the new Statcast outfield statistics love him. Over the life of the statistic, Outs Above Average has him as a top-tier OF, trailing only Inciarte, Cain, Hamilton, Betts, Kiermaier and Buxton, and only by a handful of runs over 3 seasons. There's no 2020 leaderboard yet, but he is labeled as 99th percentile in that stat; it's safe to say he'll rank well when that comes out. People (among them me) have looked at that disparity and speculated that something about the way the Sox set up their OF might hurt him on the DRS/UZR methodology, and his sprint speed is nothing special and unlikely to improve in his 30s.
Either way, 16 or 13 WAR is pretty great return on a supplemental first-round pick. He was a super 2, and has about $40m of earnings in his four arb-eligible seasons.
I think we all hope that Jarren Duran is our CF of the future, and that the future is soon. But I would be very happy to offer Bradley a two-year deal, with the expectation that he serves as the mentor/veteran presence to our young outfielders (Duran and Verdugo), starting for the first year and then stepping back to a fourth OF role when Duran is ready.
On a personal note, Bradley is my favorite active player, and I'll miss him if he goes.
(Literally, as I am typing this, he just made a great play against the fence to take a double away to try to drag Mike Kickham through this inning.)
In comments a few days ago, Chaim Bloom seemed to suggest the team was open to retaining Bradley after this season.
But...
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