lars10 said:
BB likes to count on veterans late down the stretch. No way BB does not play Blount over Gray in week 2 of the "AlarmGate" if he thought Gray offered a better chance of winning.
Jonas Gray - Kickstarting for an Atomic Alarm Clock
- Thread starter Super Nomario
- Start date
BB likes to count on veterans late down the stretch. No way BB does not play Blount over Gray in week 2 of the "AlarmGate" if he thought Gray offered a better chance of winning.
I would be very surprised to learn that, at this point, Gray is not playing for anything but football reasons
Well, okay, but is there some unique element of GBs run D to suggest that Gray could not gain yards? If anything, the way we were all falling all over ourselves regarding his ability to follow his blockers, wait for the hole and hit it (and thus get the solid 3-4) would have applied to GB too. No? I assumed they were saving him for a power drive late and it never happened. I don't need to revisit the discussion of the third and nine, but it might have been nice to see those fresh legs on that last drive.Mystic Merlin said:
I suspect it has been written elsewhere, but maybe Gray is the secret weapon for the rematch.
wiffleballhero said:
Dumb on a bunch of levels.
We have no idea why Gray wasn't in there, and speculating is fun but fruitless. Maybe the team had contact practice this week and he fumbled a few times. Maybe he missed assignments during practice and fell out of favor. Maybe he fucked BB's wife.
I also have no qualms with Vereen getting the 3 carries he got. It's more of a way to keep the defense honest and potentially sneak in solid runs, since he's usually only out there on passing downs.
I'm still wondering about the lack of usage of Jonas Gray over the last few weeks.
To be clear, I have no interest in the discipline angle. Or Gray's tweets and how they may have affected things. All that stuff may play a role but is unknowable for us.
In any event, my assumption is that we're past that and BB and Josh just think they are better off with Blount carrying the vast majority of the load.
Now let's acknowledge that this is a high class discussion. Blount has been quite effective.
But three observations follow.
One, in Gray's last extended action, he was incredibly effective. Of course, a lot of that is down to the line and the job they did against Indy. We haven't seen Cameron Fleming as the 6th OL since that game and he was a big factor in what they accomplished that night. But still, given how well Gray performed, I would think that BB would want to see more, regardless of whoever else is in the mix.
Two, as well as Blount did at times on Sunday night, his average per carry was just bit over 3 yards, and several drives started out at 2nd and 12 or 13 after negative carries by Blount. It's not as if the guy ahead of Gray is above criticism. And yes, I know, an answer could be that the holes just weren't there and no one would have done much better.
Three, wouldn't both be more effective if they operated more as a one-two? For example, after three (or more) Blount carries, bring in Gray for some more mashing. And vice-versa. That seems like something that would wear down defenses when the Pats are in run mode and even when they are mixing in passes, as well. And it might keep them both fresh. Now true, some guys say they get better as they get more carries, but I would think that with two big, strong runners like this, that defenses would wear down when facing them both at their freshest.
Last caveat: Like most others here, I have a healthy respect for the head coach, to say the least. I am bringing this up because the answers are not clear to me. I am not bringing this up because I think the questions invite answers that perforce turn Bill and Josh into dolts who can't see what is obvious. So no need to point out that Bill knows a thing or two more than me...this is well appreciated.
To be clear, I have no interest in the discipline angle. Or Gray's tweets and how they may have affected things. All that stuff may play a role but is unknowable for us.
In any event, my assumption is that we're past that and BB and Josh just think they are better off with Blount carrying the vast majority of the load.
Now let's acknowledge that this is a high class discussion. Blount has been quite effective.
But three observations follow.
One, in Gray's last extended action, he was incredibly effective. Of course, a lot of that is down to the line and the job they did against Indy. We haven't seen Cameron Fleming as the 6th OL since that game and he was a big factor in what they accomplished that night. But still, given how well Gray performed, I would think that BB would want to see more, regardless of whoever else is in the mix.
Two, as well as Blount did at times on Sunday night, his average per carry was just bit over 3 yards, and several drives started out at 2nd and 12 or 13 after negative carries by Blount. It's not as if the guy ahead of Gray is above criticism. And yes, I know, an answer could be that the holes just weren't there and no one would have done much better.
Three, wouldn't both be more effective if they operated more as a one-two? For example, after three (or more) Blount carries, bring in Gray for some more mashing. And vice-versa. That seems like something that would wear down defenses when the Pats are in run mode and even when they are mixing in passes, as well. And it might keep them both fresh. Now true, some guys say they get better as they get more carries, but I would think that with two big, strong runners like this, that defenses would wear down when facing them both at their freshest.
Last caveat: Like most others here, I have a healthy respect for the head coach, to say the least. I am bringing this up because the answers are not clear to me. I am not bringing this up because I think the questions invite answers that perforce turn Bill and Josh into dolts who can't see what is obvious. So no need to point out that Bill knows a thing or two more than me...this is well appreciated.
Not sure how much more effective Gray would have been Sunday. The offensive line really struggled in run blocking after that first drive. Gray would have been losing yards too when his O-linemen were getting pushed back into him.TheoShmeo said:
Id probably like to see more of a split and might have left Gray in the lead role, but they're fungible enough players that I don't really care. Blount had success last year here and ran hard in the Detroit game when Gray was getting disciplined.TheoShmeo said:
I also dont think BB has a long history of giving rookie RBs heavy usage late in the season with other options available (thinking Dillon/Maroney '06 and BJGE/Ridley '11). So they're close, he went with the vet.
If they play the Colts again and go with their usual run heavy Colts game plan Id expect plenty of work for both backs.
This is my theory as well. Ride Blount as long as possible and if he either gets hurt or is ineffective, then make the switch to a fresh Gray. It also plays a role that Gray has been a practice squad player and they (Bill and Josh) might be worried that he'll break and/or wear down as he plays more and more games.drleather2001 said:
It also might be a bit of gamesmanship. They are in complete control of their division, save some weapons for the playoffs. He may be hiding an ace up his sleeve.
But Gray doesn't have much in-game experience right? I mean the value of keeping him fresh has to be counter-balanced by the fact that he has only had 3 games in his career (Bears, Broncos, Colts) with more than 5 carries. If he is a valuable weapon this year wouldn't BB want him gaining experience, seeing different defenses, learnings some blitz pick-ups, etc? I mean the idea that Blount is going to be run into the ground and BB will switch to an inexperienced rookie/ps player for the play-offs doesn't pass the sniff test to me.
Seems more likely B doesn't fully trust him yet (and I don't mean this as a reference to the Waterclock affair). I mean BB prefers Blount as someone who he has had more experience with, and who presumably has more knowledge out there.
We have seen Gray heavily featured in one game with one very specific gameplan. It was an awesome game, but I think the simplest solution is the most likely. He just hasn't earned the big man's trust yet.
Seems more likely B doesn't fully trust him yet (and I don't mean this as a reference to the Waterclock affair). I mean BB prefers Blount as someone who he has had more experience with, and who presumably has more knowledge out there.
We have seen Gray heavily featured in one game with one very specific gameplan. It was an awesome game, but I think the simplest solution is the most likely. He just hasn't earned the big man's trust yet.
Incredibly SSS but Gray did have 2 runs for 9 yards against LGBTs 20 for 66.
LGBT also had 23 of that on 1 4th qtr run. (which granted at the time (2nd and 12) was a big play)
Who knows if Gray would have done better then Blounts 3.3 per over 6-8-10-15 rushes.....but it seems like it would have been worth a try.
Blount looked more hesitant then I had seen him in a long time in the 3rd and 4th quarter (save that 1 run). Maybe it was the line.....maybe it was the defense. But obviously Blount was not being effective....why not give Gray a few carries?
So yea...something is up
LGBT also had 23 of that on 1 4th qtr run. (which granted at the time (2nd and 12) was a big play)
Who knows if Gray would have done better then Blounts 3.3 per over 6-8-10-15 rushes.....but it seems like it would have been worth a try.
Blount looked more hesitant then I had seen him in a long time in the 3rd and 4th quarter (save that 1 run). Maybe it was the line.....maybe it was the defense. But obviously Blount was not being effective....why not give Gray a few carries?
So yea...something is up
FL4WL3SS said:
On the other hand, Blount only has 65 careers on the season owing to his backup role in Pitt. Bill could ride him hard the next few weeks and he'd still likely be the freshest starting back in the playoffs - especially if we get the bye.
Everyone watched the game. Gray would not have done any better than Blount. The line was getting dominated when run blocking.
Surprised he was that high...it was a total disaster which was made more confounding by BB and Josh continually sending him out there...not sure you see too many teams win with that type of performance. Gray hits holes hard, not quite as good as Ridley, but certainly better than Blount. To hear BB actually praise Blount after the game was insultingRalphwiggum said:
JokersWildJIMED said:
Ok, here's my theory we all know the Patriots overload in Indy and run Gray for a ton of yards, he missed practice, gets into the dog house and they bring in Blount, and gets limited plays/touches since. It would be the most BB thing ever to practice Gray hard, expose him to the the Pats defense but keep him from more league tape and then break him out in the play-offs for a 30+ carry game against a bad run defense team. In other words, BB usually has a method to his madness and he's often thinking the long-play and putting the best team on the field for that week. He also is one of the best tactical minds in the game and might be saying we know what Blount brings, and we know what Gray brings - let's not expose Gray and ride him in the playoffs when Defenses are tired. I have no idea, but Gray got a few touches this week and looked explosive and just missed a big gainer on one run up the middle.
That's just crazy. We're talking about a RB who'd never had a professional carry before October. Any benefit the league would get from reviewing tape would be completely and utterly outweighed by the experience of getting live reps. And if there was reason to believe that Gray was significantly better than LGBT, the advantage of playing him now and the added chances of securing the division, a bye, and homefield would outweigh the disadvantage of opponents' film study.
BB trusts Blount and thinks overall he's better than Jonas Gray. That IMO is all there is to it. Secret weapon stuff seems pretty far-fetched.
Gray does look a tiny bit quicker to the hole to me, even the other night on those two carries. Will be interesting to see how it goes this week.
Gray does look a tiny bit quicker to the hole to me, even the other night on those two carries. Will be interesting to see how it goes this week.
Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
I always thought Ridley hit the hole better last year, but Blount showed a greater ability to rip off the big one. We could be seeing a similar thing at play this year with Gray.
I would love to see Gray once again be the lead running back in a game. I like Blount, but I thought Gray looked really good in that Colts game.
However, I need to temper my enthusiasm. The Pats had Fleming in that game as an extra blocker (and he's been hurt since). The Pats were also coming off a bye, and were facing a Colts defense that stubbornly ignored the run until it was too late. Plus the Colts run defense has been exposed before by Belichick; just that most teams fall behind too early against the Colts to really take advantage of it.
Against Detroit, the game plan was to pass. Against Green Bay and San Diego, the offense never really got on track enough to really give the running game much of a chance. Too many 3-and-outs (6 combined in the past 2 games, plus one 4-and-out and one 5-and-out) and a couple of turnovers limited the number of opportunities to run the ball. More carries probably would mean more Jonas Gray. And I do assume that Belichick has more confidence in Blount in avoiding turnovers in late game situations when the score is close (e.g, the last Pats drive against San Diego).
Who knows, perhaps Gray is nursing an injury as well.
However, I need to temper my enthusiasm. The Pats had Fleming in that game as an extra blocker (and he's been hurt since). The Pats were also coming off a bye, and were facing a Colts defense that stubbornly ignored the run until it was too late. Plus the Colts run defense has been exposed before by Belichick; just that most teams fall behind too early against the Colts to really take advantage of it.
Against Detroit, the game plan was to pass. Against Green Bay and San Diego, the offense never really got on track enough to really give the running game much of a chance. Too many 3-and-outs (6 combined in the past 2 games, plus one 4-and-out and one 5-and-out) and a couple of turnovers limited the number of opportunities to run the ball. More carries probably would mean more Jonas Gray. And I do assume that Belichick has more confidence in Blount in avoiding turnovers in late game situations when the score is close (e.g, the last Pats drive against San Diego).
Who knows, perhaps Gray is nursing an injury as well.
lexrageorge said:
In this vein, two brothers literally won a million dollars because they remembered how much the Colts defense was owned by the Patriots run game.
I want to believe that Gray is awesome and they will rock with Fleming healthy, but unfortunately, I'm not sure how much is exportable from the Colts domination.
Isn't it possible that when they signed Blount they assured him he wouldn't be the backup to Gray, and that he's playing most of the snaps because of that, since avoiding a repetition of the Pittsburgh situation would be part of the agreement? So the team gets important depth, and is playing the vet over the guy that was on the practice squad since a) they are more or less fungible and b) it was promised him he wasn't coming on as a backup.
I guess I'm thinking of how he likes to tell players what he expects...I can imagine a conversation with Blount where they talk about the Steeler situation, and he assures Blount he wants him to play, although he'll do what's best for the team, etc
I feel pretty confident BB didn't need to tell Blount that pulling that bullshit here wouldn't fly for a nanosecond. I really feel like this is being overthought. He has more faith in Blount - because he's a veteran, because he's produced in this system before and because he's a more talented player. Gray has proven less.
I hope we will see more of him, but I'm happy to have the depth, no matter whose name is at the top of the chart.
I hope we will see more of him, but I'm happy to have the depth, no matter whose name is at the top of the chart.
Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
Not to single you out, as I've heard this refrain from others, but I'm no longer sure Blount is the more talented back.
[SIZE=11.8181819915771px]For the Pats, Jonas is averaging 4.9 ypc to Blount's 4.38 ypc, and that's with 33 more carries. Folks point to Blount's ability to move the pile and get yards after contact, but you still get that with 235 pounds of Gray, plus better feet and better vision, IMO. Blount seems more prone to negative plays - sometimes the dude looks like he's running in molasses - and we all know how negative run results can alter Josh's play-calling balance.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.8181819915771px]Lastly, YMMV, but I feel slightly annoyed that the same guy who walked off the field on his team one week, turns around and is anointed the starting RB position here the next week. Seems very un-Belichickian to me. I understand he was here last year, and had some success, but he was also unimpressive in the AFCCG.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.8181819915771px]I'm not saying Blount can't be useful, but to me, Gray is the better back.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.8181819915771px]FREE JONAS[/SIZE]
Gray seems quicker/faster in small spaces. Blount is probably more patient and has more top-end speed and might be a better receiver. I like Blount more in the fourth quarter than anything. I'd roll with Gray more early in the game. He seems to move the chains and keep drives alive.
Turns out that Blount does have more negative plays. (this was written before yesterday's game)
Edit: In response to smokin joe, I don't believe for a second that Blount has more top-end speed.
Edit: In response to smokin joe, I don't believe for a second that Blount has more top-end speed.
I don't feel at all singled out, and I still think BB might consider Blount more talented. But as of yesterday's game I tend to agree with you and hope to see more of Gray. He hits the hole a bit more quickly and, at least against Miami, it sure looks like that made a significant difference.Erik Hanson said:
Despite the fact that they are both big, they seem very different as runners. Gray more of a steady guy; Blount more of a feast-or-famine big play guy. Also, Blount has shown the ability to dominate in bad weather.
I think there's a place for both of them, and going forward I'd like to see both getting their touches.
I think there's a place for both of them, and going forward I'd like to see both getting their touches.
JONAS! JONAS!
Time to get laughed out of the thread....
But Jonas Gray reminds me of Emmitt Smith.
I was shocked to see they are size wise virtual clones of each other. Thought Smith was smaller.
17948 yards to go until my comparison really shines
Time to get laughed out of the thread....
But Jonas Gray reminds me of Emmitt Smith.
I was shocked to see they are size wise virtual clones of each other. Thought Smith was smaller.
17948 yards to go until my comparison really shines
bakahump said:
It seems like the offense is different with him in the game. Blount is good, but lacks that explosion through the line - they make similar decisions but Gray just hits the hole 1/2 a second quicker and gets the extra yards with less negative. It's why I have been so baffled not seeing Gray, and why I even went to so far as to say BB must be hiding him from tape as it seemed so obvious during games. I know BB loves the veterans, so my only other thought has been that he identified some mechanical issue to the way Gray was carrying the ball that he wanted to address in practice. I'm trying to look back at game film to see if he has made an adjustment or some change to how he carries the ball to avoid fumbles as I just can't believe that he was benched based on production alone and the "best chance to win" for this long for missing one practice. He's just been too dynamic when given the chance to play.
Gray will be a difference maker, he seems to be better than Ridley at this point.
I have to admit, at the risk of sounding fan-boyish, I agree. What can I say, he just looks fantastic every time he has his hands on the ball. Still small sample size, I'd much prefer a 2-way RB who can catch passes, too -- makes a team much less predictable and Gray hasn't really shown that yet. But, just as a runner, love those bowling ball types and man alive he hits the hole fast and seems to cut to the correct hole.
Valek123 said:
This seems to be the most rational explanation. Maybe Gray leaves the ball exposed on too many plays?
The Patriots run blocking has been pretty bad, but they should be producing more run yardage than they had been getting in the past few weeks.
What angers me more than seeing Blount get carries over Gray is when Vereen gets the carries in an obvious run situation. Take the last series before the half as an example. The Pats are clearly looking to run 3 straight plays. How is Vereen a better option given the defense knowing a run is coming? It would seem more likely that Gray gets positive yardage in that situation versus Vereen.
Well part of this is to keep teams honest when Vareen is in there. You've gotta give him some amount of carries, otherwise the defense doesn't need to account for the run.PayrodsFirstClutchHit said:
First down they are trying to get the defense to key pass, so Vereen is OK, but yeah after that would rather have seen a bigger back given it seems Vereen is just very ineffective at running through contact.
Thought Gray took advantage of his opportunity yesterday and ran hard. That sort of snap split with Blount remains what Id like to see going forward, but I still think the backs are close enough to fungible in terms of effectiveness that Im not going to get too worked up over it. Think I like Blount more on short yardage, goal line, and late and like Gray more on early downs, but not confident enough to try and outguess the coaching staff on this one.
Thought Gray took advantage of his opportunity yesterday and ran hard. That sort of snap split with Blount remains what Id like to see going forward, but I still think the backs are close enough to fungible in terms of effectiveness that Im not going to get too worked up over it. Think I like Blount more on short yardage, goal line, and late and like Gray more on early downs, but not confident enough to try and outguess the coaching staff on this one.
When Gray started the second half, it was as if BB was saying: "OK, enough is enough; this game seems a little dicey; I need to use my best back." I realize that's irrational but it kind of felt that way. My first thought when I saw Gray to start the half was that BB was playing for keeps now, I admit. (First thought...inkling...I know he was actually playing for keeps all along...making a point, and not a literal one).
In any event, I am confident enough to outguess the coaching staff on this one...at least to the extent that Gray continues to get much fewer carries than Blount going forward. Of the four available running backs, Gray hits the hole the fastest and consistently nets the bests results (with the admitted sample size caveat). His 4.9 yards per carry average doesn't appear fluky or only the result of one good outing. Yesterday, with the same blocking schemes and defensive front, he clearly out performed Blount and Vereen. And I don't see why he is deemed less effective by anyone in short yardage or near the goal line. Sure, the sample size is small, but he's done well when given the chance in that area, including picking up a first down on a third and short against the Fish.
I continue to like the idea of one-two punch with Blount and think that will wear down the opposition and keep them both fresh. But more and more, I want to see Gray in the lead role.
Last: I get the sense that Jonas' play yesterday was such that we're not going to have to worry about this going forward. No doubt, Belichick is very hard to predict, but it would surprise me a lot if Gray doesn't get more regular playing time and touches going forward. yesterday seemed to cement that.
In any event, I am confident enough to outguess the coaching staff on this one...at least to the extent that Gray continues to get much fewer carries than Blount going forward. Of the four available running backs, Gray hits the hole the fastest and consistently nets the bests results (with the admitted sample size caveat). His 4.9 yards per carry average doesn't appear fluky or only the result of one good outing. Yesterday, with the same blocking schemes and defensive front, he clearly out performed Blount and Vereen. And I don't see why he is deemed less effective by anyone in short yardage or near the goal line. Sure, the sample size is small, but he's done well when given the chance in that area, including picking up a first down on a third and short against the Fish.
I continue to like the idea of one-two punch with Blount and think that will wear down the opposition and keep them both fresh. But more and more, I want to see Gray in the lead role.
Last: I get the sense that Jonas' play yesterday was such that we're not going to have to worry about this going forward. No doubt, Belichick is very hard to predict, but it would surprise me a lot if Gray doesn't get more regular playing time and touches going forward. yesterday seemed to cement that.
I think other than keeping Miami honest against the pass, they were trying to milk clock by doing slow-developing outside runs, which suits Vereen's skill set. It sort of worked, in that they milked 15 seconds even though the Dolphins kept calling time out and the runs didn't gain much.PayrodsFirstClutchHit said:
I guess Id just be really surprised if we're sitting here disappointed a month from now saying "man, that decision to give Blount 2/3 of the snaps over Gray instead of vice versa really hurt" or going "oh man, Gray instead of Blount really was the key to that playoff win". Running backs that don't factor much in the passing game are generally fungible and, while I like what I see from Gray, the chances that he's Emmitt Smith reincarnated still seem pretty low to me. So I hope we see a similar split to what we saw yesterday and am glad we have both guys, but its just really far down on the list of things to analyze or worry about on this team IMO.
Super Nomario said:
BB was very terse with his answer when asked in the press conference what the strategy was for those 3 plays before the half. He seemed upset by the thought they were just running out the clock and not trying to make yards/first down. I am having a hard time believing that BB was setting up a long con with Vereen running on pass plays or BB was assuming the plays would fail so Vereen would be the best at extending a failed play and killing more clock.
The play calling was very conservative and not using Gray in that situation is certainly something worthy of a valid second guess.
I was mildly surprised that they didn't throw a short pass (high %) on 1st down to try and get ~5 yards. Would have at least provided the MIA D something else to think about. Once they called the run on 1st down, the plan was obvious. Even though Ian Eagle and dan Fouts thought Philbin was a genius for using his timeouts on D, i'm pretty sure BB knew that's what would happen so i thought they might try to mix things up a bit.PayrodsFirstClutchHit said:
I thought the TO's by Miami were bad because I figured there was no way BB would run it twice and punt in that spot. Was disappointed in that sequence (actually was OK with the first down call more than the other two downs) but agree that one of the bigger backs was a better choice on 2nd and 3rd down if they were going to go conservative (or possibly if they wanted to run play action)
The flaw in the plan wasn't even what happened on offense, it was the punt return. There were 11 seconds on the clock before the TD snap. If the Pats don't give up a punt return then it is highly unlikely Miami scores ANY points unless they complete a mid-deep route on the sideline and get out of bounds. Anything in the middle of the field would have burned the clock. If the Pats covered the punt then clock management at the end of the half is a non-story.
The other flaw was having Butler on Wallace, which has been covered elsewhere.
The other flaw was having Butler on Wallace, which has been covered elsewhere.
If they fair catch it at the 36 there's going to be enough time left on the clock to make a throw to the middle of the field and spike it. Obviously TD is in the lower range of outcomes, but a punt return is one of the things you leave yourself open to when you go ultra conservative there. I basically hate ever burning possessions with an offense as good as the Pats in that spot, so once the Dolphins start calling timeout I really hate just giving up the possession.