Jonas Gray - Kickstarting for an Atomic Alarm Clock

[Super Nomario]

If they fair catch it at the 36 there's going to be enough time left on the clock to make a throw to the middle of the field and spike it.

I don't know; there would have only been about 20 seconds left. You've got to run a play that's quick but goes decently far downfield (at least 20 years for a ~62-yard FG) and then run up, set for a second, then spike the ball. That's tough in 20 seconds. You could get a sideline play, or maybe two quick ones, but without the long return it's still just for a long-shot chance at a FG.
 

Obviously TD is in the lower range of outcomes, but a punt return is one of the things you leave yourself open to when you go ultra conservative there.  I basically hate ever burning possessions with an offense as good as the Pats in that spot, so once the Dolphins start calling timeout I really hate just giving up the possession.

Some fair points here, but the offense was not functioning well at that point of the game.

 

[Stitch01]

Im sure that's why BB did it, just think it is way too conservative in that spot with Brady at QB, particularly when you can't actually run out the clock and open yourself up to a return, ticky tack PI call, etc.

 

[TomTerrific]

I note that Jonas Gray's performance on Sunday was good enough to make him the fifth most valuable RB by DYAR. Strangely enough, his performance against Indy was only good enough for second most valuable that week.
 
I have been completely fine with letting Blount get most of the carries, on the thought that his ability to occasionally break the big one is really valuable. However, Gray's ability to avoid negative plays and just his general consistent yardage pickups are making me start to come around on preferring him over Blount.
 
I'm guessing the Buffalo game will be the one where running is featured heavily, so we'll see what happens there.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

The Colts' defense admits, in print, that Jonas Gray broke them.  They talk of being embarrassed and demoralized, of "taking it personal".  Some great quotes in that article as they gear up to face Dallas and DeMarco Murray (?) on Sunday.

 

[DJnVa]

The Colts' defense admits, in print, that Jonas Gray broke them.  They talk of being embarrassed and demoralized, of "taking it personal".  Some great quotes in that article as they gear up to face Dallas and DeMarco Murray (?) on Sunday.

 
There's something in that article that infuriates me because the numbers it chooses to make it's point don't actually do that.
 
The article states:

 Change is what has taken place in the past four weeks. The Colts have given up an average of 103 yards a game, more than seven yards below their season average, during their current four-game winning streak.

 
That sounds all well and good. But when you look at the actual numbers, the yards per game doesn't show any actual improvement. That one NE game skewed their average. That one crazy game added nearly 11 yards per game to their average. That matters, but that game was a sample size of one. No one was expecting every team to rush for 250 yards going forward. Looking at all the other games:
 
For the entire season, in non-Jonas Gray games, they've given up 99.9 yards per game. Since that game (and remember, the only stats the article gives are yards per game) they've actually given up 104.
 
Now, in YPC they have gotten better. Non-Gray games are 4.1 YPC and since that game that's improved to 3.6. That's how that article should have made their point.
 

 

 

[Saints Rest]

 
There's something in that article that infuriates me because the numbers it chooses to make it's point don't actually do that.
 
The article states:
 
 
That sounds all well and good. But when you look at the actual numbers, the yards per game doesn't show any actual improvement. That one NE game skewed their average. That one crazy game added nearly 11 yards per game to their average. That matters, but that game was a sample size of one. No one was expecting every team to rush for 250 yards going forward. Looking at all the other games:
 
For the entire season, in non-Jonas Gray games, they've given up 99.9 yards per game. Since that game (and remember, the only stats the article gives are yards per game) they've actually given up 104.
 
Now, in YPC they have gotten better. Non-Gray games are 4.1 YPC and since that game that's improved to 3.6. That's how that article should have made their point.
 
 

It seems to me that what really happened after the Pats game is that other teams decided to try to follow the Pats' formula and run it on the Colts, early and often.  I haven't reversed your math, but it's pretty obvious that the number of rushing attempts went up after the Pats game.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

There's something in that article that infuriates me because the numbers it chooses to make it's point don't actually do that.

 
Agreed.  Though I saw "seven yards below their season average" and thought, "that doesn't sound like much at all, especially over four games - that's well within the bounds of statistical noise".  So basically, the author is an idiot (shockingly, he's an ESPN beat reporter for the Colts), but he did go and get a few amusing quotes.

 

[DJnVa]

It seems to me that what really happened after the Pats game is that other teams decided to try to follow the Pats' formula and run it on the Colts, early and often.  I haven't reversed your math, but it's pretty obvious that the number of rushing attempts went up after the Pats game.

 
Average was 22 attempts before and 29 after.
 
However, the last two games were 36.5 carries, so it's only those 2 that are causing that. The next 2 immediately after were right on the 22 average.
 
 

 

[Saints Rest]

 
Average was 22 attempts before and 29 after.
 
However, the last two games were 36.5 carries, so it's only those 2 that are causing that. The next 2 immediately after were right on the 22 average.
 
 

So final answer = SSS noise.

 

[DJnVa]

So final answer = SSS noise.

 
 
Yep, but not for ESPN!!!
 

 

[tims4wins]

Those 4 games have also come against Jacksonville, Washington, Cleveland, and Houston. Not a playoff team among them.
 
In terms of YPA those teams average 4.1 (Jax, 14th), 4.3 (Wash, 12th), 3.6 (Clev, 28th), and 4.0 (Hou, 21st). So they have barely even played against an above average rushing offense.
 
Edit: and by DVOA they rank 22, 23, 26, and 28th in rushing. So not a single above average rushing team by DVOA.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Also from the article:
 

 
The list of quarterbacks the Colts have faced during their winning streak is far from impressive -- Blake Bortles, Colt McCoy, Brian Hoyer, Tom Savage, Ryan Fitzpatrick -- which makes what they've done with their run defense even more impressive, because the running game was even more important for Jacksonville, Washington, Cleveland and Houston, respectively.

 
Seems to me this is exactly backwards.  If a team has an awful QB and you know they cannot generate much of anything in the passing game, isn't it easier for the defense to sell out to stop the run?

 

[RIrooter09]

Exactly what I thought.  What a dumb article.

 

[Granite Sox]

Prior to ESPN, Wells was the Colts beat writer at the Indianapolis Star.  He has always been a glass half-full writer on the team.  Generally speaking the Colts have gotten a pass in the media ever since Manning came to town.  They play in a horrible division, and have played against bad teams during their "streak".
 
Gray and the Patriots OL, TEs, FB, and WRs executed to a T that night.
 
Pride won't have anything to do with it when the Colts play a good team in the playoffs and get steamrolled.