Let’s predict the 2020 Red Sox record

How many games do the Red Sox win?

  • Less than 20

    Votes: 25 9.3%
  • 20-25

    Votes: 64 23.9%
  • 26-30

    Votes: 95 35.4%
  • 31-35

    Votes: 68 25.4%
  • 36-40

    Votes: 9 3.4%
  • 41-45,

    Votes: 3 1.1%
  • 46+

    Votes: 4 1.5%
  • Playoffs - yes

    Votes: 24 9.0%
  • Playoffs - no

    Votes: 82 30.6%

  • Total voters
    268

canderson

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This season will be the most bizarre of any we have ever seen. This Red Sox roster is ... interesting. Offense might be ok but who again are these guys we have pitching?

So, just curious where everyone sees this team finishing. Let’s pretend the “full” season gets played, even if you believe the season won’t play out.

I added two choices at the bottom as well about making the playoffs.

I voted 20-25, no playoffs. I think they end up around 24-36.

Interested to see where people are, I have little hopes.
 

nayrbrey

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I initially thought they could get into low 20s, but changed it to under 20 as there is no pitching past Eovaldi and Rodriguez. Yeah sure they’ll score some runs, but give up more.
 

DeadlySplitter

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26-30 is the median outcome, I'd imagine.

they have 13 games against the O's and Marlins. they'll cream enough opponents to get there.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I also voted 26-30. If I had to pick an exact record I’d go for the perfectly mediocre 30-30. Not exactly a bold position since their over/under in most places is around 31.5 (if I were a betting man I’d take the under, since I think there is a much greater chance they go, say, 20-40 than they do 40-20).
 

ookami7m

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31-35, the offense will carry them in some games to be slightly better than 500, but the playoffs question is too tough to call as there will be so much more randomness than usual. Gut says they make as a wildcard and lose the coin-flip game
 

Kliq

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26-30 is the median outcome, I'd imagine.

they have 13 games against the O's and Marlins. they'll cream enough opponents to get there.
This is a good point. I have very little faith in the pitching staff but they are going to play some bad teams that make up a greater percentage of the schedule this year, and they will win some slugfests.
 

scottyno

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I voted 31-35 because I wanted to be positive and say 31-29 instead of 29-31, the lineup is still really good
 

RIrooter09

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Changing my vote to 26-30 with news of ERod still suffering from COVID complications. This feels like a .500 team.
 
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Danny_Darwin

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27 wins, never really “in it,” not truly terrible but mostly kind of boring. Which some would say is worse. Maybe they give Downs and Duran a look at some point, though. (I said something similar in March, not sure why it’d change.)
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I can't see myself getting all that worked up about wins and losses this year.

I'm just glad there will be baseball. I think they are going to be under .500 but I find that I don't care and I'm way more interested in whether they get to 9/1 than record. That to me will be a win, because the Mookie thing is going to be really hard for me to take if they don't get the tax reset.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Ryan Weber pulls a 2005 Aaron Small and fools batters for 12 starts which gets us to 30-30. 16-team playoff we squeak in.
 

effectivelywild

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I'm the 2nd one to vote 40-45.
Making note of that just in case.

I'm sure I overshot, but hey, being optimistic is fun.
That's assuming 60+ games are played though.
Um, how would they play more than 60 games? I was pretty certain that 60 games was going to be the absolute longest the regular season would be able to go, if it even makes it there. Unless you are thinking they make the playoffs and you are counting postseason wins. Which would be cool and anything can happen in this crazy season.
 

The Gray Eagle

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With 13 of the first 23 against NYY and Tampa, we'll fall way behind early, then play the kids and experiment for the second half of the "season."

Although if they do expand the playoffs, we won't bail and play the minor leaguers as soon, and may win a few more games, maybe around 27 in that scenario.
 

WheresDewey

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I decided to be optimistic and went with 31-35, but expect them to be a mediocre team on either side of .500. Here's hoping Eovaldi can stay healthy for a short season and a few of the scrubs catch lightning in a bottle.
 

Salem's Lot

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I voted less than 20 because I'm taking the "the season gets cancelled after 30 games" angle.
That’s where I am as well. “Will they win 20 games?” Nein. That’s right, a 9-12 record when they cancel the season.
 

staz

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I voted less than 20 because I'm taking the "the season gets cancelled after 30 games" angle.
Not to pick on BSJ, but I don't get all the 'impending doom,' vibe that persists. Teams have already been together for 2.5 weeks and where's the outbreaks? No doubt, some clubs will lose major pieces (some more than one), but instituting the 60-man pool plus 2 teams of FAs tells me MLB is going to push through. It may take crippling outbreaks in 4 or 5 clubhouses for MLB to shut it all down.

That said, team health will play a major role in the standings, and Mass.' relatively low infection rate provides an advantage for the Sox. What if Blake Snell and Austin Meadows get sick in Tampa for 3 weeks and the Sox stay mostly healthy in Mass.? The outcome of even five games could mean the difference between a sub .500 season and a Wild Card.

I voted 20-25 wins, but that could very easily slide up to 35, depending on how the (ahem) wind blows.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I voted 31-35 and no playoffs, however if they expand to 16 playoff teams, then I think they get in.

My guess is they go something like 33-27 and I actually think playing NYY and TB so often in the beginning of the season helps them more than it hurts the (as in perhaps the teams come in more on even ground than they would had they actually played 13 times in late July having started in April as teams find their stride)

Offense I think is still one of the top in the AL. Pitching - obviously not, but I think it will be better than expected.
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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I voted 31-35 and no playoffs, however if they expand to 16 playoff teams, then I think they get in.

My guess is they go something like 33-27 and I actually think playing NYY and TB so often in the beginning of the season helps them more than it hurts the (as in perhaps the teams come in more on even ground than they would had they actually played 13 times in late July having started in April as teams find their stride)

Offense I think is still one of the top in the AL. Pitching - obviously not, but I think it will be better than expected.
This is my line of thought as well. The pitching is horrible, but the offense is well above average.
 

johnnywayback

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I think there's enough offense, and enough games against total disaster teams, to get over .500. People really underestimate just how much better our lineup is than most teams'.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Not to pick on BSJ, but I don't get all the 'impending doom,' vibe that persists. Teams have already been together for 2.5 weeks and where's the outbreaks? No doubt, some clubs will lose major pieces (some more than one), but instituting the 60-man pool plus 2 teams of FAs tells me MLB is going to push through. It may take crippling outbreaks in 4 or 5 clubhouses for MLB to shut it all down.
The impending doom persists because up until this week, teams were in their own bubbles. Now that the season proper is starting, they're going to be traveling the country...airports, hotels, ballparks. Much harder to control potential exposure, especially given how many teams reside in current hotspots where preventative/protective measures are inconsistent at best. And that's only considering if there's an outbreak amongst the teams. There's also the possibility that we have cities/states react to local surges by withdrawing permission for games to happen. PA just rejected the Blue Jays plan to base themselves in Pittsburgh citing the added risk involved. What's to stop them from deciding the Pirates or Phillies (and their opponents) coming in and out of town is too great a risk and shutting them down too? Doesn't matter how big the taxi squads are to fill in for players who test positive if a couple more teams are suddenly homeless for reasons outside their control.
 

RedOctober3829

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I voted 20-25. I just don't think the pitching is good enough to win a lot of games. If the first exhibition game is a microcosm of the season, I'm not optimistic at all. I'll be excited to watch baseball, but overall I am just not confident enough in the pitching staff. If Eovaldi or Rodriguez(when he gets back) struggle or get hurt, you may be looking at one of the 2 or 3 worst starting rotations in all of baseball.
 

The Gray Eagle

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The owners have a huge financial interest in finishing the season and having a postseason, so they will make that happen, even if some teams have half their 60-player pool out with the virus.
 

Patek's 3 Dingers

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The various Power Rankings list the Sox from 18 to 20th and the odds makers at 20th, all of which would indicate a sub-.500 season. The Sox best chance for making the playoffs would have been if every other team had had two starting pitchers opt-out.
 

JimD

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I voted 31-35 because I wanted to be positive and say 31-29 instead of 29-31, the lineup is still really good
This is where I'm at. The offense will be there and I think the pitching will be not quite the train wreck that everyone is predicting *if* EdRo bounces back from his Covid. Still out on the playoffs though.
 

ShaneTrot

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I voted 20-25. I just don't think the pitching is good enough to win a lot of games. If the first exhibition game is a microcosm of the season, I'm not optimistic at all. I'll be excited to watch baseball, but overall I am just not confident enough in the pitching staff. If Eovaldi or Rodriguez(when he gets back) struggle or get hurt, you may be looking at one of the 2 or 3 worst starting rotations in all of baseball.
This is how I feel. The pitching is atrocious and this is a post-Mookie offense. I think the offense will be good but not spectacular enough to carry this lousy pitching staff. Has there been this lousy a pitching staff in the Henry era? They always have had an ace or a very good #2 starter.
 

Patek's 3 Dingers

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This is where I'm at. The offense will be there and I think the pitching will be not quite the train wreck that everyone is predicting *if* EdRo bounces back from his Covid. Still out on the playoffs though.
I see the starting pitching to be an absolute train wreck. There will be 2-3 be planned and/or defacto bullpen games every time through the rotation.

I don't say this from a doom and gloom perspective. I'm happy to finally seeing some MLB and will be watching a clean shaven Cole take on Strasburg tonight.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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16 playoff teams now! 30-30 might get the Sox in.

The agreement is now subject only to ratification by the owners, but they're sure to be on board given the added revenue. It must be made official by the first pitch between the Yankees and Nationals on Thursday night. The expectation is that 16 teams will be invited to the 2020 postseason, as opposed to 10. ESPN's Buster Olney reported earlier that the No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 seeds in each league -- the division winners -- would be able to pick their opponent among the other five clubs during a televised selection show.
 

pk1627

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I now doubt ERod ever pitches this season. Sucks. Sox might win 26.

The good news is the season is short, it’s a good year for Sale to have his surgery, they play enough to reset the cap (I hope) and maybe one of the pitchers Chaim has brought in will turn out to be okay and helpful next year.
 

Rovin Romine

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I have a very boom or bust hope for this 1/3rd "official" season. If they go all the way and win the WS, I'm fine with that, even though it won't quite be the WS.

Otherwise, I'm looking more toward 2021 in terms of free agents, draft picks, and the luxury tax.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I now doubt ERod ever pitches this season. Sucks. Sox might win 26.

The good news is the season is short, it’s a good year for Sale to have his surgery, they play enough to reset the cap (I hope) and maybe one of the pitchers Chaim has brought in will turn out to be okay and helpful next year.
Based on him having mild symptoms, I really cannot see him not being able to pitch all year - even in a short year -

Now that they amended to the 16 team playoff pool, I think the Sox get in. I just think their offense is still too good for them not to have the 7th or 8th best record (at worst) in the AL.

Other than the Yankees, Rays, Twins, Astros and Oakland, what other teams in the AL would you actually bet on definitively being better than Boston? I think they get in as the 7th or 8th seed. My guess would be Yanks/Rays in the East, Twins/Indians in the Central, Astros/Oakland in the West, and then the Red Sox and White Sox as the other two likely playoff teams.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Based on him having mild symptoms, I really cannot see him not being able to pitch all year - even in a short year -

Now that they amended to the 16 team playoff pool, I think the Sox get in. I just think their offense is still too good for them not to have the 7th or 8th best record (at worst) in the AL.

Other than the Yankees, Rays, Twins, Astros and Oakland, what other teams in the AL would you actually bet on definitively being better than Boston? I think they get in as the 7th or 8th seed. My guess would be Yanks/Rays in the East, Twins/Indians in the Central, Astros/Oakland in the West, and then the Red Sox and White Sox as the other two likely playoff teams.
Myocarditis isn't really a mild symptom. Mild symptoms might allow him to keep working out and throwing, but myocarditis has him shut down entirely for an indeterminate amount of time. Maybe he recovers and can ramp up, but I'm starting to think if he pitches this year, it may only be as an opener or in relief. I don't expect he'll get to a point where he's throwing 80-100 pitches an outing.

That aside, I agree that the expanded playoffs give the Sox a pretty reasonable chance of making the tournament. They'd have made an 8-team AL playoff field last year. I imagine it won't take more than 28-30 wins to get in.
 

scottyno

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53-7, in order to be extra safe no teams are going to travel and they just play the same team 60 times right?
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Somehow I missed this, but belatedly am going in on 32-28 (only because I saw 31-29 above). Obviously would make the playoffs with that record. Then with basically no pitching, one series and done in the postseason.