Not to derail this thread but I watched Verdugo all year and sure his defense was good but he fell off a cliff in the second half, he can’t hit lefties at all, is an ass, and he has minimal pop for a corner outfielder. I am a nerd but the numbers and the eye test just don’t add up.
Yes, and not piling on here, but when you think about it Soto plus those two things is three pretty good things. Unfortunately I bet they get more Jekyll than Hyde out of Verdugo since the shaving.
Did his divorce last three+ seasons? His performance, from a macro perspective, has trended downward pretty hard the past few years - its feels like the kind of decline you see at the end of a pitcher's career. Hopefully the fresh start plus the pitching gurus can fix him.
Giolito's numbers broken down...
The White Sox were also really bad defensively in (particularly) 2022 and 2023, especially in the outfield, where they were messing around with Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets. Giolito’s .340 BABIP allowed in 2022 is an outlier.
Fair enough.
Best bet would be the Rays. Franco and Glasnow are no longer part of the team. McClanahan is out for the year. Springs out at least half the year. The first three combined for 9 fWAR.
Rasmussen is hurt too, their current rotation is Eflin, Civale, Littell, Pepiot and Taj Bradley, but I think we all know better than to judge the Rays on paper at this point, as every season they turn water into wine over and over and over.
This is true, but if any team is due for a regression, it’s TB. Even so, the Sox may not finish with a better record.
Pitcher performance variance is always a thing, short of Pedro and those guys. Game to game, year to year. If he lost some spin rate maybe it narrowed his margin for error. I don’t think we are working with much info. I just know that until July 18 he was shoving, consistently, against top teams.
They haven’t signed any big FA, so they don’t stand a chance. Fangraphs getting ready to put out another 78 win prediction.
Wait, Giolito is an Italian name… he was probably watching opera and drinking wine at night. I know something about this. Our people do NOT handle breakups well. He will be fine!
If he has pitched well enough to opt out, will he not be eligible and worth the QO? Which does/would offset the risk of him being awesome for 1 yr and bolting...
I get that. Clearly there is going to be variance for anyone.
2/40 with no opt out is clearly a FAR better contract for the Red Sox.
I don’t understand the last sentence or think that’s what I said, but my point is that he’s probably doing different things to cope with the substance crackdown and it has worked, mostly, but it might be more complicated than just switching grips and being good to go. I suspect now that he’s signed we will see some real reporting about the technical stuff, which should be interesting. He’s still got a high ceiling, and his floor is lots of innings.
He’s 29 and signed a 2 year contract with the ability to become a free agent after a year.
We don’t need to belabor spin rate issues any more, but this sentence is what makes no sense to me.
No that's not what he signed. He signed the ability to get a 2nd year, at a rate above resulting market, if he sucks in the first year.
I’m not sure I understand the question.
I think what you're talking about makes a lot of sense conceptually but in the reality of this marketplace, I don't see it. They still have a significant gap between their current commitments and the luxury tax threshold and this contract is extremely unlikely to have any effect on that decision making next season. This line of thinking also implies that there is someone out there worth making a larger investment in, and I don't believe that player is there. It also implies that a player like Giolito, who has been quoted as saying he knows why he stunk and believes he would be better, would have any interest in signing a long term contract. This is a guy who got Cy Young votes 3 straight seasons before he fell apart in July 2022. I'm sure he still sees himself like that guy I can't imagine that he signs long term unless someone is willing to give him something like what the Yankees gave Rodon. That would be a severely risky proposition for the team. For this player, the choice seems pretty clear, you either give him a contract like this or you pay him for something closer to his ceiling. We can disagree on the former, but I think we agree on the latter.
It is interesting that while we have made strides on SOSH in the last five years on opt outs, it is still kind of difficult for people to appreciate some wrinkles.
He was a 2 WAR pitcher in June of 2023, a year after the crackdown, before he fell apart in July and erased almost all of that value (for the second straight year, which is much more of a concern IMO).
Thank you for sharing this really lovely memory. You had a terrific grandfather!
Which is much different than signing say a 4 year deal with lower AAV, which would be more of a signal he thinks he is cooked.
Ha! Ok I guess I said that. Reading on my phone is less than ideal. Anyway, I look forward to him and the Sox giving us their view so we can stop trying to come up with our own explanations for his ups and downs.
He was traded twice, his last twelve games in 23 where he really struggled were split evenly between LA and Cleveland.
That was my question - the only thing I see on the qo rules is the player is "rostered for the full year". And you highlight the point of IF he is opting out we have benefited from it and still have some marginal leverage.
I get the option always benefits the holder. From derivative markets to player contracts. The question on the option was concerned with the application of the qualifying offer should the option be exercised and the expected value of the qo.
I get you — yeah, I think injury is worst case. Best case is he is great, likes Boston, and we use the exclusive window to get a good deal done.
This is something I keep coming back to.
My question on this deal is... The option is a really good thing for the player... What did the team get for it? The team takes basically all the risk for poor performance I would have expected something for that... Such as a lower year 1 salary. Do we really think Giolito had better guaranteed money out there? I really really doubt it.
I love this steadfast refusal to think critically about the issue. You simply want satisfaction, and promptly!
No, it’s that I’m not an MLB GM. We have one of those. The one who just made a creative move to dump Sale and add young talent.
They might get 180 IP, but that misses the question... What did they get for giving him a player friendly option. They are paying market maybe a bit more for his first year given his past performance, so why the need to give him a player option?
