For the record, I agree totally with why Giolito makes a ton of sense for this team. I agree with the points of someone like
@chawson outlining why there is upside. I also agree with the absolute need for the Sox to get dependable innings from their SPs, and I think Giolito provides that.
To the bolded, I wanted them to sign this player for the reasons mentioned, but what I wanted FSG/FO to do is commit to this player (or someone else from Stroman or Montgomery or Snell or Lugo or whoever) for the next 3/4 years at minimum.
I don‘t believe a total dependence to one year deals in their starting rotation is going to lead to any type of sustained success (long term) nor do I think cycling in one year deals is going to lead to a championship in a given season (short term).
There is a difference in naysaying because you dislike the player and someone naysaying because they dislike the philosophy - regardless of the player in question. I am staunchly in the latter camp, and some others are too. I don’t think the person picking the one year deals really matters (be it Theo, Bloom or Breslow), I think the plan is incredibly flawed and ultimately will not yield either sustained success (consistency) nor titles (short term highs).
Also, to the point of someone like a
@burstnbloom saying there is no downside to a short term deal where Giolito (or anyone else) is great for a year and leaves, I just disagree totally. It’s like someone who says “there is no risk to a short term CD.” That is incorrect, it’s a question of the kind of risk one is comfortable with.
There is very little “principal” risk with a deal like this, yes. There is also very real opportunity risk (did the team cost themselves the opportunity of adding someone more impactful by an adherence to short term deals because you were only shopping in the “value” aisle), which is of course possible.
There is also “reinvestment” risk with this kind of strategy - and this is the risk I think DESPERATELY needed to be avoided with at least one rotation spot this year - and this deal doesn’t do it. As in say Giolito is great, opts out next year, and then the 2025 market doesn’t offer the same type of investment opportunity (think of this as interest rates dropping in 9 months from the CD example above - someone could have cost themselves a fixed 4yr CD at 4.25% to take the 1yr CD at 5.25%, but when the money comes due in a year 1 yr CD rates have dropped to 2.5% and 4yr rates
have dropped to 2.65%).