Might as well start talking about 2021

DeadlySplitter

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the Sox seemed behind the Blue Jays in Kim bidding anyways, but I think it would have been a nice get. Padres are going nuts though
 

chawson

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Maybe Pham is an option to play CF? Sounds like he’s recovered from his wrist injuries and the stabbing wound was reportedly not severe. Hits the ball hard when healthy and Bloom certainly knows him.
 

Manramsclan

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Today is the last day Haruki Nishikawa of the Nippon-Ham Fighters can be signed to an MLB contract. The Sox have not been reported to have been in on him, but he is a lefthanded CF with little power but walks and hits for average. He could be sort of an anti-JBJ offensively, and be had for something like $7 million a year for 3 years (+20% posting fee).

I actually doubt the Red Sox are interested based on his offensive profile, but I am bored and thirsty for baseball news and I figured others are too.
 

chawson

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Today is the last day Haruki Nishikawa of the Nippon-Ham Fighters can be signed to an MLB contract. The Sox have not been reported to have been in on him, but he is a lefthanded CF with little power but walks and hits for average. He could be sort of an anti-JBJ offensively, and be had for something like $7 million a year for 3 years (+20% posting fee).

I actually doubt the Red Sox are interested based on his offensive profile, but I am bored and thirsty for baseball news and I figured others are too.
My sense is that the Reds would happily give us Shogo Akiyama's underwater 2/$15M contract, who this article compares favorably to Nishikawa, if we wanted a CF with that profile.
 

Manramsclan

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My sense is that the Reds would happily give us Shogo Akiyama's underwater 2/$15M contract, who this article compares favorably to Nishikawa, if we wanted a CF with that profile.
I had conflated the two thinking Nishikawa had the better/longer track record.

Well, I guess the January 7th deadline for Tomoyuki Sugano is the next threshold to keep an eye on.
 

jon abbey

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Today is the last day Haruki Nishikawa of the Nippon-Ham Fighters can be signed to an MLB contract. The Sox have not been reported to have been in on him, but he is a lefthanded CF with little power but walks and hits for average. He could be sort of an anti-JBJ offensively, and be had for something like $7 million a year for 3 years (+20% posting fee).

I actually doubt the Red Sox are interested based on his offensive profile, but I am bored and thirsty for baseball news and I figured others are too.
No one in the US was especially interested, he is going back to Japan.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/latest-on-haruki-nishikawa.html
 

jon abbey

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Also it’s a lot easier to fly back and forth to Asia from the West Coast, a big reason why Ohtani picked the Angels.
 

RedOctober3829

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Another reclamation project comes to the Red Sox.

"Starter Daniel Gossett, who was drafted 10 years ago by the Boston #RedSox only to go to Clemson and pitch for the Oakland #A's,signs a minor-league contract with the Red Sox. He last pitched in the big leagues in 2018 before undergoing TJ surgery, and was released in July by A's"

View: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1346169188759392257
 

nvalvo

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In case anyone was wondering...he wasn't very good before undergoing TJ surgery...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gosseda01.shtml
Career #s: 5.91 era, 5.67 fip, 1.56 whip, and only a 6.5 k/9
He's been rocked in the big leagues so far, but across three AAA stints, he has 21 starts and two relief appearances, a 2.87 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Brooks Baseball suggests that his pre-injury four-seam fastball sat around 91 and touched 94. He also throws a curveball, changeup and slider.

If he's healthy after his Tommy John surgery, I'd say he has more upside than Ryan Weber.
 

woodros04!

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He's been rocked in the big leagues so far, but across three AAA stints, he has 21 starts and two relief appearances, a 2.87 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Brooks Baseball suggests that his pre-injury four-seam fastball sat around 91 and touched 94. He also throws a curveball, changeup and slider.

If he's healthy after his Tommy John surgery, I'd say he has more upside than Ryan Weber.
If he makes the major league roster his salary will be $750K, so this has essentially no downside.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Haven't followed the LeMahieu negotiations closely but the recent leaks all feel just like posturing from each side for the best possible deal even though they know they'll eventually reach a compromise. The above Tweet seems to be in that vein ("Oh yeah? Well what if I go to your rivals the Red Sox?").
 

mr_smith02

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Haven't followed the LeMahieu negotiations closely but the recent leaks all feel just like posturing from each side for the best possible deal even though they know they'll eventually reach a compromise. The above Tweet seems to be in that vein ("Oh yeah? Well what if I go to your rivals the Red Sox?").
Yeah, I think you are right here. He's looking for a J.D. Martinez-like contract; I don't see that happening in Boston.
 

jon abbey

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DJ is looking for someone to give him something like 5/100, plus he is attached to draft pick compensation, plus a lot of his HRs were to the short porch in NY's RF.
 

E5 Yaz

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... plus a lot of his HRs were to the short porch in NY's RF.
I doubt the Red Sox would sign him, but this point seems fungible. He's a good enough hitter to take advantage of whatever ballpark he calls home
 

jon abbey

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I doubt the Red Sox would sign him, but this point seems fungible. He's a good enough hitter to take advantage of whatever ballpark he calls home
He is a very good hitter, but he is not a $20M player in most ballparks.

Home/Road OPS splits:

2020: 1.265 (108 PAs)/.759 (108 PAs)
2019: .977 (311 PAs)/.818 (344 PAs)

27 HRs at home, 9 on the road over those two seasons.
 

jon abbey

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Also, defense is always fuzzier than offense, but there's a real chance his stellar 2B defense peaked a few seasons back and is now only solid. He turns 33 in July.

Don't get me wrong, I will be very happy if NY gets him to agree to something in the 4/84 range, but he really is a better fit for NY (ignoring that Gleyber should be a 2B) than maybe anywhere else.
 

chawson

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Lemahieu seems like an important domino to fall. Signing him near his rumored ask pushes the Yankees close to the tax and it seems like this is their reset year. I think Bloom's waiting for them to play that card so Cashman's out of the running for any of the salary dump deals-for-talent he's likely in on.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Haven't followed the LeMahieu negotiations closely but the recent leaks all feel just like posturing from each side for the best possible deal even though they know they'll eventually reach a compromise. The above Tweet seems to be in that vein ("Oh yeah? Well what if I go to your rivals the Red Sox?").
I don't think there's any doubt that's what this is. On the surface, the Sox seem like a good landing spot for LeMahieu because a) they appear to have an opening at 2B and b) they have a history of splashing cash around. Shrewd agents are always going to take advantage of any sliver of a possibility of the Sox being interested to leverage a better deal elsewhere. With his age and asking price (including the draft pick compensation), I don't think Bloom is going anywhere near him. If the Sox were in contact with LeMahieu's agents early in the winter, it was probably a matter of doing their due diligence than a genuine interest.
 

jon abbey

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Lemahieu seems like an important domino to fall. Signing him near his rumored ask pushes the Yankees close to the tax and it seems like this is their reset year. I think Bloom's waiting for them to play that card so Cashman's out of the running for any of the salary dump deals-for-talent he's likely in on.
Cashman doesn't have many holes to fill, I am increasingly thinking he plans to give his young pitchers more chances this year than people expect. I think NY will add one middle infielder (if not DJ, it will be a SS, via FA or trade, and Gleyber will go back to 2B where he is better defensively) and one SP (I have thought for a while that Kluber is their #1 option, his showcase is later this week). NY doesn't have the 40 man space to make the kind of move you're talking about, I don't think that is holding back Bloom at all.
 

chawson

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Cashman doesn't have many holes to fill, I am increasingly thinking he plans to give his young pitchers more chances this year than people expect. I think NY will add one middle infielder (if not DJ, it will be a SS, via FA or trade, and Gleyber will go back to 2B where he is better defensively) and one SP (I have thought for a while that Kluber is their #1 option, his showcase is later this week). NY doesn't have the 40 man space to make the kind of move you're talking about, I don't think that is holding back Bloom at all.
Fair point. There's been some reporting that Cashman's sniffing around Taillon, Frazier and Musgrove in Pittsburgh, which is a move I hope Bloom makes (and could involve Polanco's salary). Those reports came before Josh Bell was moved, so who knows if it's in play now. Re the 40 man, you'd know better than I, but I figure guys like King, Kriske, Nelson or Greg Allen would be pretty expendable if a deal like that were on the table, wouldn't they?
 

jon abbey

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Fair point. There's been some reporting that Cashman's sniffing around Taillon, Frazier and Musgrove in Pittsburgh, which is a move I hope Bloom makes (and could involve Polanco's salary). Those reports came before Josh Bell was moved, so who knows if it's in play now. Re the 40 man, you'd know better than I, but I figure guys like King, Kriske, Nelson or Greg Allen would be pretty expendable if a deal like that were on the table, wouldn't they?
They really like all of King, Kriske and Nelson, keep in mind they protected them all over the two guys who BOS and CLE happily grabbed from them in the 40 man draft (Whitlock, Stephan). Allen is most certainly disposable, but I figure that spot will go to the middle infielder they add (since Tyler Wade is their starting 2B currently).
 

Earthbound64

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this point seems fungible. He's a good enough hitter to take advantage of whatever ballpark he calls home
He's played in Colorado (thin air) and New York (an absolute joke of a Right Field which should have been forced to conform with regulations when they had replaced most of the stadium in the '70s, much less the new place). What other places have such glaringly obvious things? Or are you arguing he would hit it off Pesky's Pole with unusual regularity?
 

E5 Yaz

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He's played in Colorado (thin air) and New York (an absolute joke of a Right Field which should have been forced to conform with regulations when they had replaced most of the stadium in the '70s, much less the new place). What other places have such glaringly obvious things? Or are you arguing he would hit it off Pesky's Pole with unusual regularity?
Reading comprehension issues? I'm saying that taking advantage of RF in the Bidet would be an example of him taking advantage of his home ballpark. In Fenway, I would expect a hitting his ability to adjust his swing to be more gap to gap and try to use the wall to his benefit.

Next time, when you want to ask a question, avoid the condescending bullshit
 

Randy Red Sox

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Another reclamation project comes to the Red Sox.

"Starter Daniel Gossett, who was drafted 10 years ago by the Boston #RedSox only to go to Clemson and pitch for the Oakland #A's,signs a minor-league contract with the Red Sox. He last pitched in the big leagues in 2018 before undergoing TJ surgery, and was released in July by A's"

View: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1346169188759392257

Great pickup by Bloom. Got him cheap and he could be a steal.
 

CR67dream

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Great pickup by Bloom. Got him cheap and he could be a steal.
I don't know much about him. Could you tell us a little about why you think he's more than just a lottery ticket? This is what I meant in the other thread about supporting our opinions. I mean, you very well may be right, but this post tells us nothing of value.
 

mauf

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Reading comprehension issues? I'm saying that taking advantage of RF in the Bidet would be an example of him taking advantage of his home ballpark. In Fenway, I would expect a hitting his ability to adjust his swing to be more gap to gap and try to use the wall to his benefit.
Do players actually do this? I can’t think of an instance where a player changed his hitting style to capitalize on the dimensions of his new home park and got good results. Obviously, guys like David Ortiz and Curtis Granderson saw their careers take off when they changed teams, but I think Granderson was always a dead-pull hitter and Ortiz always hit a lot of balls the other way for a power hitter.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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"Re: industry sources, there is a sense that the Red Sox have talked about a ton of possibilities and are preparing for a series of moves before the start of spring training. They haven't done much yet, but the expectation is that they will in an effort to upgrade the '21 team. " - Olney

View: https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1349145055018307585?s=20
That's a lot of words by Olney to say a whole lot of nothing. Oh, so a team is preparing to make a series of moves before spring training? That is breaking news, all right. Probably could describe 27 or 28 other teams too.
 

jon abbey

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That's a lot of words by Olney to say a whole lot of nothing. Oh, so a team is preparing to make a series of moves before spring training? That is breaking news, all right. Probably could describe 27 or 28 other teams too.
I think ‘upgrade’ is actually the (alleged) news there, that is definitely not the case across the board this winter with every team and was not totally clear in Boston’s case, especially given the Benintendi rumors.
 

billy ashley

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I think ‘upgrade’ is actually the (alleged) news there, that is definitely not the case across the board this winter with every team and was not totally clear in Boston’s case, especially given the Benintendi rumors.

Yeah, that indicates that they're not punting, which is an odd choice to me.

The core is solid: Xander, Devers, Verdugo is a great third of a lineup to build around. Further, JD Martinez is too good of a hitter not to expect a solid bounce back. Vazquez is a bit of a wild card, but you're happy if he's the 5th best player on the lineup. I'm intrigued by Arroyo as a solid complementary piece, and Renfro if deployed correctly could add some real value. There is some upside, but of course a ton of risk with Dalbec.

Basically the offense, short of being down 1-2 OF depending on what happens with Benintendi should be above average. It even has a chance to be very good. The defense could be really bad (again depending on what they do in the OF) but yeah there are reasons for some limited optimism here.

The trouble is that while I like a lot of the pieces in the rotation and bullpen, it's not exactly deep. If anyone underperforms or gets hurt (which is inevitable) things are gonna start looking grim.
 

allmanbro

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Agreed that actually competing is a stretch. Even with pretty substantial additions, they probably go into the season effectively tied with Toronto as the #3 team in the division. I expect that any return on Benintendi will be someone controllable for at least a couple years.

I the referenced flurry of moves is that they are waiting on the return in a Benintendi trade (or whatever big trade for pitching they do), and based on what holes are left after that, they will fill in the roster with a bunch of minor moves.


Edit: to be clear, I think the team can both build for 2022 and substantially improve for 2021. That I think it's unlikely is not reason not to try to put the team in good position: maybe the Rays take a bigger step back than I expected losing Morton and Snell, maybe the Yankees are plagued by injury, and maybe the Blue Jays young talent develops slowly . . .
 
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DJnVa

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Not sure if JBJ is off the Sox radar, but MLB Network posted their top 10 CF'ers heading into 2021, and #4 on the list was Alex Verdugo (Trout, Bellinger, Springer ahead of him).

I'm not sure if they are very bullish on Verdugo or bearish on CF'ers.
 

allmanbro

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They are probably waiting to see if they get a CF back in a Benintendi trade. If they don't, I've warmed up to the idea of signing JBJ and Wong as good enough hitters and very good defenders. Then you can get a hitter to pair/platoon with Renfroe in LF. Of course it depends on the deal each gets. The sox probably want short years (ideally 2 for each), and I hope are willing to offer higher AAV to make that possible. But I don't know how to guess where the market is.
 

nvalvo

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New FanGraphs 2021 projections are out, and... they weirdly love the Red Sox? (Also the Angels...)

Padres .590
Dodgers .579
Mets .560
Astros .541
Red Sox .541
Yankees .539
Braves .538
Athletics .529
Angels .528
White Sox .528

Does anyone know what 2021 Red Sox roster they're projecting to tie the Yankees for the AL East crown? Are they projecting us to sign a bunch of starting pitching? Has some spreadsheet somewhere decreed that Tanner Houck is an ace? Matt Andriese, 2021 Cy Young award winner?

The numbers don't appear to square with the FanGraphs depth chart projections, which have our current roster worth 34 WAR, or .500ish, on the strength of 21 WAR from the hitters and 13 and change from the pitchers. That seems much more realistic to me, and closer to our general sense that we have a pretty strong position player group, but a mediocre pitching staff unless everything goes perfectly healthwise.
 

allmanbro

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New FanGraphs 2021 projections are out, and... they weirdly love the Red Sox? (Also the Angels...)

Padres .590
Dodgers .579
Mets .560
Astros .541
Red Sox .541
Yankees .539
Braves .538
Athletics .529
Angels .528
White Sox .528

Does anyone know what 2021 Red Sox roster they're projecting to tie the Yankees for the AL East crown? Are they projecting us to sign a bunch of starting pitching? Has some spreadsheet somewhere decreed that Tanner Houck is an ace? Matt Andriese, 2021 Cy Young award winner?

The numbers don't appear to square with the FanGraphs depth chart projections, which have our current roster worth 34 WAR, or .500ish, on the strength of 21 WAR from the hitters and 13 and change from the pitchers. That seems much more realistic to me, and closer to our general sense that we have a pretty strong position player group, but a mediocre pitching staff unless everything goes perfectly healthwise.
Very interesting, if the method is not just "what they do on depth charts", what is it? Maybe part of it is a team-level projection based on team performance the last three seasons (like player projections work), in which case they would still be getting a boost from 2018. That wouldn't explain the Angels though, or for that matter I would expect the Yankees to come out substantially ahead by that measure. There may be many parts/calculations to the projection though.