Minor league thread 2023

JM3

JM3

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Another telling of Luis Guerrero's story:

When the WooSox reliever was a 2-year-old, he suffered a throat infection that was not treated properly, and the infection spread to the muscles of his right knee. Guerrero underwent surgery and spent the next nine months in a clinic in the Dominican Republic. Unfortunately, he was unable to receive age-appropriate therapy, which caused his knee muscles to not fully develop, and to this day, his knee has very little flexion range.
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"Not only can I be an example of overcoming [adversity] for people with disabilities, but for everyone," said Guerrero. "Everything is possible, God has the last word, and if you have God in your heart and work hard, he will bless you with what you need."
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And about his status with the organization, Guerrero does not hide his happiness. "If I told you I'm comfortable here, I'd be lying to you. I'm more than comfortable because my whole family is in Boston, and thank God I'm already in Worcester in Triple-A, 30 minutes [away] from my family and one step away from the majors," he said. He also mentioned that the Red Sox have always been his favorite team.

Guerrero's goals are clear, and when asked about what they were, he only answered with three words: "Hall of Fame."
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https://www.milb.com/worcester/news/luis-guerrero-life-story
 
JM3

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sittingstill said:
I too look forward to seeing Hayden Mullins in an actual uniform.

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Yeah...I would feel less scared for grass-induced abrasions if he had his uniform on. I'm hopeful he shows enough in the Spring to start the year in Greenville, but Salem with a quick promotion is he pitches well is probably more likely.

But just look at them bulging left arm muscles. In 6.1 IP this year across FCL & A-Ball, Mullins had 15 strikeouts. He had a 59.3% k-rate (21.3 k/9).
 
Chainsaw318

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Mullins is hopefully a Dobbins-like in that the stuff is still good after rehabbing the injury he had when drafted, then shows quickly that they can move through leveled to make up for the lost injury time.

I didn’t realize Dobbins pitched 70 innings at AA. Would have thought less.
 
edhand

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Chainsaw318 said:
Mullins is hopefully a Dobbins-like in that the stuff is still good after rehabbing the injury he had when drafted, then shows quickly that they can move through leveled to make up for the lost injury time.

I didn’t realize Dobbins pitched 70 innings at AA. Would have thought less.
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I believe 2023 10th rounder Ryan Ammons is a similar situation rehabbing an injury upon being drafted out of college.
 
JM3

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edhand said:
I believe 2023 10th rounder Ryan Ammons is a similar situation rehabbing an injury upon being drafted out of college.
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I believe he missed most of the college season with a forearm strain & did make it back in the bullpen at the end of the year, but was somewhat ineffective allowing them to sign him way under slot ($50k, $167,900 slot).

I don't think he has the same level of talent as Mullins & Dobbins, but who knows? Another place where Breslow can hopefully make an impact.

If this is actually Ed Hand that would be really cool & you should interview him & find out. Seems like he should be ready for next year, though.
 
edhand

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JM3 said:
I believe he missed most of the college season with a forearm strain & did make it back in the bullpen at the end of the year, but was somewhat ineffective allowing them to sign him way under slot ($50k, $167,900 slot).

I don't think he has the same level of talent as Mullins & Dobbins, but who knows? Another place where Breslow can hopefully make an impact.

If this is actually Ed Hand that would be really cool & you should interview him & find out. Seems like he should be ready for next year, though.
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We're trying to get him. My hope initially was to get the entire 2023 draft class and then check in on them again after a year but obviously that's easier said than done. I'm still surprised we got Zanetello.

Really enjoyed reading through your 250+ prospect rankings, JM3. Genuinely prodigious.
 
JM3

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edhand said:
We're trying to get him. My hope initially was to get the entire 2023 draft class and then check in on them again after a year but obviously that's easier said than done. I'm still surprised we got Zanetello.

Really enjoyed reading through your 250+ prospect rankings, JM3. Genuinely prodigious.
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I irrationally hate the hitch in Nazzan's swing, but good get & good interview. Been factoring the interviews into my rankings a bit, especially with guys with less data to go on. Have not been factoring in their favorite fast food chicken, though.

Thank you, sir. It's been a fun little project the last few months trying to get them sharper & sharper. Couldn't do it without all the great work SoxProspects does with their various pages. Made it much easier to build out the spreadsheet.
 
JM3

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Kristian Campbell piece by Christopher Smith.

“Really just (make) contact, put the ball in play,” Campbell said, explaining his plate approach. “Find a way to get on base any way I can. Try to be a tough out. I’ve always tried to be that guy.

“I just hit the balls where they’re pitched,” he added. “I don’t really think about it too much. I just try to hit the ball as hard as I can where it’s pitched into the gaps.”
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https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/10/red-sox-xander-bogaerts-comp-pick-a-tough-out-elite-in-important-area.html
 
JM3

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I have a question regarding prospect Marcelo Mayer of the Boston Red Sox. It seems multiple sources and analyzers have decreased their love for Marcelo. I’m wondering how you guys feel and if you are still; as high on him as before. You have him at No. 11, which is great, but I honestly thought he could crack top 5 or so this year. Seems his value is dropping? (if you can believe No. 11 is a drop) -- Dom P.

We answered Dom’s question on this week’s MLB Pipeline Podcast, so be sure to give it a listen. But Jim Callis and I agreed that Mayer’s “drop” had more to do with players moving past him because of big years and the addition of some ridiculous elite Draft talent than it did an industry souring on Mayer.

Yes, he didn’t hit well when he got to Double-A. But he also wasn’t 100 percent. So I know I’m giving him a mulligan of sorts. I think sometimes because so many young guys are moving so fast (like Jackson Holliday), that if a guy struggles for a second when moving to a new level, it’s easy to dismiss him a bit. But Mayer was only 20 for all of 2023 and he reached Double-A. By many standards, he’s ahead of the curve. So I don’t think his value is dropping at all. I expect him to figure out Double-A in 2024 and keep his upward trajectory.
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https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-inbox-is-jackson-holliday-s-little-brother-better-than-him?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
 
JM3

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Heating up in the bullpen said:
I’d rather see Blaze working on core and legs
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I'll hope/assume there is more to his workout program than that 11 second clip. Will be interesting to see if he can transform his body in a productive way.

I was just wandering down a Driveline rabbit hole. There's a whole lot that goes into player development these days.
 
Heating up in the bullpen

Heating up in the bullpen

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JM3 said:
I'll hope/assume there is more to his workout program than that 11 second clip. Will be interesting to see if he can transform his body in a productive way.

I was just wandering down a Driveline rabbit hole. There's a whole lot that goes into player development these days.
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Ha! Clearly small sample size! Still, if you’re just going to show us 11 seconds, how about showing that you’ve moved on beyond the guns?
 
JM3

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JM3

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JM3 said:
Will be listening to this one pretty soon. Curious to know more about Brand seeing how small he is, but how successful he was at Salem.

View: https://twitter.com/ByAndrewParker/status/1717990677932367989
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Ok, listened to this. Some good stuff about the velo program & xERA. That's what I really like in these. & the stuff about teammates is good. & the fast food chicken & questions to get to know the actual player are fine.

... but when the interview devolves into conversation about college football or the NFL or whatever I get really confused about why I would want to listen to non-experts talk about sports where there are very few actual experts knowledgeable or entertaining enough for me to want to listen.

But overall still cool. Hope he gets his velo up & has a good year in Greenville.
 
JM3

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xERA

Definition
Expected ERA, or xERA, is a simple 1:1 translation of Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA), converted to the ERA scale. xwOBA takes into account the amount of contact (strikeouts, walks, hit by pitch) and the quality of that contact (exit velocity and launch angle), in an attempt to credit the pitcher or hitter for the moment of contact, not for what might happen to that contact thanks to other factors like ballpark, weather, or defense.

By converting this to the ERA scale, it puts xwOBA in numbers that are more familiar, and allows it to be compared directly to the pitcher's actual ERA. (If you're familiar with FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, the idea is similar, just that now Statcast quality of contact can be included.)

xERA is not necessarily predictive, but if a pitcher has an xERA that is significantly higher than his actual ERA, it should make you want to take a closer look into how he suppressed those runs.
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https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-era
 
JM3

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I am mildly annoyed I am not able to view MiLB xERA stats. Statcast is only available publicly for AAA & MLB AFAIK so they have to be keeping that in house I would assume.
 
JM3

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Little article on Red Sox MiLB steal leaders.

1. David Hamilton 57 (59, including MLB)
2. Corey Rosier 49
3. Phillip Sikes 39
4. Ceddanne Rafaela 36 (39, including MLB)
5. Ahbram Liendo 30
6. Max Ferguson 28
7. Eddinson Paulino 26
8. Tyler McDonough 24
9. Greg Allen 23 (traded to Yankees on May 19)
10. Kelvin Diaz 21
11. Albertson Asigen 20
11. Juan Chacon 20
13. Allan Castro 19
13. Cutter Coffey 19
13. Tyler Miller 19
16. Nick Yorke 18
16. Bobby Dalbec 18 (19, including MLB)
18. Nick Sogard 17
19. Roman Anthony 16
19. Claudio Simon 16
21. Christian Koss 15
21. Bryan Gonzalez 15
23. Fraymi De Leon 14
23. Kier Meredith 14
23. Karson Simas 14
26. Chase Meidroth 13
26. Alexis Hernandez 13
26. Alex Binelas 13
26. Bryant Zayas 13
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https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/10/whos-the-fastest-red-sox-prospect-5-players-stole-30-or-more-bases-in-23.html
 
JM3

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Enmanuel Valdez's LIDOM stats are pretty wild.

6 games
3-18 with 3 singles
5 walks
5 strikeouts
4 HBP
1 steal

.167/.444/.167, .611 OPS
 
JM3

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PABLO heading to LIDOM. Not really a MiLB story, but that's ok.

Shortstop Pablo Reyes is getting closer to joining the daily game with the Toros del Este. Reyes will be a great addition to the roster of the La Romana team that currently occupies last place in the recently started LIDOM. This year, the 30-year-old player played his fifth season in the best baseball in the world, a season where he put up quite acceptable numbers.
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View: https://twitter.com/ArielSCPE/status/1718473664553775329
 
JM3

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In Rio Gomez's 1st start in LIDOM for Estrellas...

3.1 IP
0 runs
4 hits
0 walks
4 strikeouts

Rio is a Minor League free agent.
 
edhand

edhand

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Happy to see Pablo doing LIDOM. Not many Sox playing winter ball so far. Think its just Valdez, Rio Gomez (if you count him) and now Reyes.
 
JM3

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edhand said:
Happy to see Pablo doing LIDOM. Not many Sox playing winter ball so far. Think its just Valdez, Rio Gomez (if you count him) and now Reyes.
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Narciso Crook is there in the Red Sox Minor League free agent tier, I think, but he hasn't played, yet.

View: https://twitter.com/TorosdelEste/status/1713932936360169921


Already at home Narciso Crook and the Cuban Diosbel Arias.
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Thought this Tweet was funny:

View: https://twitter.com/DamianFriasR/status/1715189910884471041


Los Toros are counting on Pablo Reyes and Narciso Crook is
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Crook was on Licey the previous 4 seasons, but only got into a total of 38 games (.563 OPS).
 
edhand

edhand

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Haven't been able to get a hold of him yet but we're trying for it. I'd love to know what the fried chicken scene is like in Australia.
 
JM3

JM3

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edhand said:
Haven't been able to get a hold of him yet but we're trying for it. I'd love to know what the fried chicken scene is like in Australia.
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Went down a weird Australian fried chicken rabbit hole.

Apparently "chook" is a popular slang term for chicken.

A domestic fowl; a chicken. Chook comes from British dialect chuck(y) 'a chicken; a fowl' which is a variant of chick. Chook is the common term for the live bird, although chook raffles, held in Australian clubs and pubs, have ready-to-cook chooks as prizes. The term has also been transferred to refer to other birds, and often in the form old chook it can refer to a woman. See our Word of the Month articles 'chook run' and 'chook lit' for further uses of chook. First recorded as chuckey in 1855.
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https://slll.cass.anu.edu.au/centres/andc/meanings-origins

& here's a list of some of the best fried chicken places in Sydney...

https://concreteplayground.com/sydney/best-of/fried-chicken-sydney
 
JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/EdHand89/status/1718824499024388105


Who do the Red Sox need to protect from the Rule 5 draft? Who are they at risk of losing?

Should be added to the 40-man for protection- Wikelman Gonzalez, Luis Perales, Shane Drohan

50/50 (could be added): Ryan Fernandez, Angel Bastardo, Grant Gambrell

Dark Horses (won't be added to 40-man, could be taken): Nick Sogard, Ryan Fitzgerald, Stephen Scott, Zach Penrod, Eddinson Paulino

Noah Song: Noah Song

Agree? Disagree? Let me know if you think I missed anyone?
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I would probably have Penrod ahead of Bastardo. Don't think Bastardo is good enough now to be close to contributing in MLB & don't think his upside is high enough to be concerned about him leaving.

Feels like if there's anyone out there who is potentially interested in a Sogard, Fitzgerald or Scott, they're the type of low ceiling older player that you just trade to them for a flyer to give their new team the flexibility to send them to AAA. Had higher hopes for Scott when he was raking, but hard to see him with a real role without being a good defensive catcher.

Allan Castro is in that Paulino tier of A+ guys with high upside who it would suck to lose, but seem too far away to protect until next year.

Politi & Hagenman make up the 27 y/o relief pitcher from New Jersey who could be taken but you certainly wouldn't bother to protect them Tier.

& then there's the Bonaci issue. He's currently on a bad list... but I've seen 0 reporting on what's actually going on & I somehow doubt we'll come back with an "Oops our bad you didn't do anything" from MLB, but he was probably going to need protecting before that.

Speaking of which, it's probably a good thing I don't have org sources or I would probably spend all my time bugging them about things that only I care about like what happened to Smil Guzman?

Zeferjahn seems to have a protectable arm, but not protectable results or mindset. Guys like Liu & Lugo are in that tier of guys who looked like they might need protecting but then had bad seasons.
 
JM3

JM3

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Important off season dates...

World Series ends to 5 days after that (11/1, 11/3, or 11/4 to 11/6, 11/8, or 11/9) - Player & team options get picked up or turned down, Qualifying Offers are tendered, players can start negotiating with teams regarding free agency but cannot sign with a new team, yet. After the 5 days, free agency officially opens.

11/15 - Deadline to add guys to the 40-man roster

11/17 - Deadline to remove people from the 40-man roster...feels like maybe one should have done that by 11/15.

12/3-12/6 - Winter meetings where the free agency period tends to ramp up.

12/6 - Rule 5 Draft.

1/12 - Arbitration figures exchanged. Arbitration in February.

1/15 - New IFA period opens. This is when most of the signings happen.

2/12 - Pitchers & catchers
 
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