Napoli: 'I Don't Feel Too Comfortable'

[Cesar Crespo]

I think that's an interesting definition of "next season" considering here's likely to start next season in AA.

What it does suggest is that if anyone is brought in, it's for a short term, maybe even someone to platoon with Nava.

My guess is Craig gets a chance.

Unless he struggles, its likely he'll start at AAA. He'll get half a season in Portland this year.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Snod has a breakdown of the differences between Napoli's swing using video from 2014 to 2015 over on the .com.

 

[Spelunker]

I posted this before, but I don't think he "heated up" in May exactly, I think he got to face two LH starters in CJ Wilson and Hector Santiago.

Nap can still hit LHP (.867 OPS). What he can't do anymore is hit RHP (.616 OPS).

And here's the trend vs. RHP:

2015: .616 OPS
2014: .739 OPS
2013: .816 OPS
2012: .861 OPS
2011: 1.044 OPS

So, at least we've got a great 1B platoon for interleague games.

 

[grimshaw]

He's also killing them when it matters most.
Medium leverage situations .167/.261/.382 with a 30.4 k%
High Leverage situations .154/.233/.154 with a 30 k%
 
I don't feel too comfortable when he's at the plate.

 

[joe dokes]

Snod has a breakdown of the differences between Napoli's swing using video from 2014 to 2015 over on the .com.
 

 
Great stuff.  I wonder if the degree to which his front foot "crosses over" is a reflection of just how fablunget he is in response to the strike zone -- something of an attempt to better deal with the outer half?

 

[Plympton91]

I just can't imagine that Napoli was able to do anything resembling an effective offseason workout and dietary regimen after that horrific surgery.  I wouldn't hold out a lot of hope of a rebound this season, as it must be very hard to rebuild strength from that lost winter during the season-long grind.  I wonder if he'd accept a 3 week DL stint to focus on conditioning and strength.  Even if not, I would target Nap as a low cost rebound candidate next year if you could do it for about a quarter of his salary this season.

 

[NDame616]

I just can't imagine that Napoli was able to do anything resembling an effective offseason workout and dietary regimen after that horrific surgery.  I wouldn't hold out a lot of hope of a rebound this season, as it must be very hard to rebuild strength from that lost winter during the season-long grind.  I wonder if he'd accept a 3 week DL stint to focus on conditioning and strength.  Even if not, I would target Nap as a low cost rebound candidate next year if you could do it for about a quarter of his salary this season.

 
Mike Napoli has been playing Major League baseball for 10 years. Before that he played 6 seasons in the minors. I refuse to believe a guy who has played professional baseball for 16 years is batting .198 because he couldn't hit the weight room as hard as he typically does in, say, February.
 
I'm not going to pretend to know the daily schedule of a major league baseball player, but I have to think that he would be able to find the time to actually hit the weight room and work on conditioning (especially when we were sold a bill of goods that this year he was the most refreshed he's been in a long time)

 

[threecy]

 
Mike Napoli has been playing Major League baseball for 10 years. Before that he played 6 seasons in the minors. I refuse to believe a guy who has played professional baseball for 16 years is batting .198 because he couldn't hit the weight room as hard as he typically does in, say, February.
 
I'm not going to pretend to know the daily schedule of a major league baseball player, but I have to think that he would be able to find the time to actually hit the weight room and work on conditioning (especially when we were sold a bill of goods that this year he was the most refreshed he's been in a long time)

He had pretty major surgery and was basically drinking his food for quite some time.  It was probably quite similar to having the flu for a few months...it's hard to keep conditioning at a reasonable level when your body is weakened like that.

One thing I didn't see mentioned in the swing analysis linked above is how he's holding the bat.  Whereas the old swing looks relaxed, the 2015 swing has the arms cocked a little bit with his bat being held a little further back.  It almost looks like he's compensating for lost core strength.

 

[NDame616]

He had pretty major surgery and was basically drinking his food for quite some time.  It was probably quite similar to having the flu for a few months...it's hard to keep conditioning at a reasonable level when your body is weakened like that.

One thing I didn't see mentioned in the swing analysis linked above is how he's holding the bat.  Whereas the old swing looks relaxed, the 2015 swing has the arms cocked a little bit with his bat being held a little further back.  It almost looks like he's compensating for lost core strength.

 
But we aren't looking at a NFL lineman who dropped 60 pounds in a few months because they couldn't eat. We are talking about a firstbaseman who can no longer hit a baseball. A professional athlete with access to everything they have access to (best exercise coaching, nutrition) shouldn't drop off like this because of a few weeks off at the gym

 

[tomdeplonty]

Sleeping better/feeling refreshed almost immediately, and a long recovery period, are both consistent with sleep apnea surgery. A friend of mine who's had it says the surgery and recovery were horrible.

 

[joe dokes]

Sleeping better/feeling refreshed almost immediately, and a long recovery period, are both consistent with sleep apnea surgery. A friend of mine who's had it says the surgery and recovery were horrible.

 
I get this, but is the 180 from March just a reflection of SSS, the relaxed pace of ST vs. the season or something else. The *only* thing ST performance is occasionally useful is to evaluate injury recovery, and he looked ready to go.

 

[dynomite]

He had pretty major surgery and was basically drinking his food for quite some time.  It was probably quite similar to having the flu for a few months...it's hard to keep conditioning at a reasonable level when your body is weakened like that.

My concern, though, is that Napoli's struggles against RHP are a 5-year trend. Perhaps the struggles this season have been magnified by this surgery/recovery, but there's a chance he would be OPSing below .700 even without the surgery.

 

[threecy]

 
But we aren't looking at a NFL lineman who dropped 60 pounds in a few months because they couldn't eat. We are talking about a firstbaseman who can no longer hit a baseball.

That's simply not true.  He's actually cut his strikeout rate since joining the Red Sox (32%, 27%, 26%)
 

My concern, though, is that Napoli's struggles against RHP are a 5-year trend. Perhaps the struggles this season have been magnified by this surgery/recovery, but there's a chance he would be OPSing below .700 even without the surgery.

He will be 34 this fall, so regardless of the surgery, it's not at all surprising if the end is near for him offensively.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

isn't the obvious answer here to platoon Ortiz and Napoli at DH and go find a dynamic 1B? Next year Hanley DH's versus lefties and plays left versus RHPs. Of course, the challenge is finding a stud 1B as the all the good ones are under control for a while. But replacing a .670 OPS at 1B should not be difficult. I think Napoli and Ortiz are basically platoon players at this point and if Ortiz shows he can hit LHP again, so much the better.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Starting in 2011, Napoli became an elite two strike hitter. People really started noticing in 2013, when it was a rare Sunday Night Baseball telecast that could go by without somebody mentioning Mike shortening his swing and going to right when he had two strikes. sOPS+ (i.e. Mike's OPS relative to the league's OPS in same split) with two strikes since 2011 has been: 241, 109, 142, 133, and then this year it's been 62. I guess getting older is part of it. But it also seems mental: first, Napoli has been pressing all season to help the offense (as have many hitters). Trying to hit a 10 run home run rather than just make an out. It also of course stands to reason that hitting with two strikes is much less comfortable when you no longer trust your strike zone judgment. 
 
Napoli lives with two strikes. In 2013, he reached two strikes on 393 of his 578 PAs. That's 68%, compared to a league average of 50%. He's at 61% of PAs this year. If you get to two strikes in 2/3 of your PAs and your OPS drops 200 pts in that situation...

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

isn't the obvious answer here to platoon Ortiz and Napoli at DH and go find a dynamic 1B? Next year Hanley DH's versus lefties and plays left versus RHPs. Of course, the challenge is finding a stud 1B as the all the good ones are under control for a while. But replacing a .670 OPS at 1B should not be difficult. I think Napoli and Ortiz are basically platoon players at this point and if Ortiz shows he can hit LHP again, so much the better.

 
Napoli's still a good defensive 1b, while Hanley's a butcher in LF. Vs lefties it's much better to have Napoli 1b, Hanley DH than Napoli DH Hanley LF. There are also probably better options for LF than 1b on the remainder of the team.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I still say Ortiz/Napoli platoon at 1B with Ramirez as full time DH. I've never seen Ortiz embarrass himself at 1st and assuming he's too old or broken down to handle it is an assumption.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

I still say Ortiz/Napoli platoon at 1B with Ramirez as full time DH. I've never seen Ortiz embarrass himself at 1st and assuming he's too old or broken down to handle it is an assumption.

It's not that he'd play 1b poorly, it's that he'd hurt himself doing so. Ortiz is a large dude with a history of knee problems which have hampered him since his Minnesota days.
 
The team didn't play Ortiz at 1b to get Manny out of left when David was younger and less of a DH icon, they're not going to do it now.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I still say Ortiz/Napoli platoon at 1B with Ramirez as full time DH. I've never seen Ortiz embarrass himself at 1st and assuming he's too old or broken down to handle it is an assumption.

 
Two years ago, when the team was in the midst of a six game West Coast interleague swing (SF then LA), Ortiz was taken out of a Wednesday game for "general soreness" attributed to having to play first base on Monday night after a cross-country flight.  Last year, he was a late scratch from the DH spot with calf soreness a couple days after playing two games at 1B.
 
It's not an assumption.  He's simply not conditioned to play regularly in the field where he's on his feet and moving around for 9 innings.  He's not getting any younger either, so it's not like it's easy to adapt on the fly to more steady time in the field.  No way he could physically hold up to the weak side of a platoon at 1B, and as the LHH in the equation, he'd be expected to carry the strong side to have the idea make any sense.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

 
Two years ago, when the team was in the midst of a six game West Coast interleague swing (SF then LA), Ortiz was taken out of a Wednesday game for "general soreness" attributed to having to play first base on Monday night after a cross-country flight.  Last year, he was a late scratch from the DH spot with calf soreness a couple days after playing two games at 1B.
 
It's not an assumption.  He's simply not conditioned to play regularly in the field where he's on his feet and moving around for 9 innings.  He's not getting any younger either, so it's not like it's easy to adapt on the fly to more steady time in the field.  No way he could physically hold up to the weak side of a platoon at 1B, and as the LHH in the equation, he'd be expected to carry the strong side to have the idea make any sense.

 
I understand the references (and that he'd be playing the majority of innings at 1B in a L/R platoon), but those two examples include one that was attributed to a lower back ache from a cross country flight and another concerning "soreness" in his calf after playing at 1B. There's no history that indicates he'd be able to sustain 1B at his age and fitness, even if he had complete days off against LHP (doubtful, since he'd probably end up pinch hitting for Napoli at at some point).
 
What's the practical downside of a lab test? There are 3:
 
1. He refuses...because, Ortiz
2. The experiment shows that he can't pull it off...poor fielding as well as hitting
3. He hurts himself and his bat ends up on the DL
 
Upside?
 
1. Better offense (addition by subtraction, particularly against RHP)
2. Better defense down the spectrum (Ramirez off the field)
3. More LHH in the lineup
4. Papi gets to talk to a hell of a lot more players during the game
 
Won't belabor this because I appreciate that if it were at all viable, at least one other person or writer in the world would have suggested it by now.

 

[Saints Rest]

 
I understand the references (and that he'd be playing the majority of innings at 1B in a L/R platoon), but those two examples include one that was attributed to a lower back ache from a cross country flight and another concerning "soreness" in his calf after playing at 1B. There's no history that indicates he'd be able to sustain 1B at his age and fitness, even if he had complete days off against LHP (doubtful, since he'd probably end up pinch hitting for Napoli at at some point).
 
What's the practical downside of a lab test? There are 3:
 
1. He refuses...because, Ortiz
2. The experiment shows that he can't pull it off...poor fielding as well as hitting
3. He hurts himself and his bat ends up on the DL
 
Upside?
 
1. Better offense (addition by subtraction, particularly against RHP)
2. Better defense down the spectrum (Ramirez off the field)
3. More LHH in the lineup
4. Papi gets to talk to a hell of a lot more players during the game
 
Won't belabor this because I appreciate that if it were at all viable, at least one other person or writer in the world would have suggested it by now.

And to be wildly cynical, if Ortiz does get hurt, maybe he doesn't get to 425 PA's.  Considering the shit-hole this season has turned into . . .
 
But maybe Nap/Ortiz platoon at DH and Holt or Sandoval covers 1B.  In the case of the latter, either Holt or Hanley cover 3B.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
I understand the references (and that he'd be playing the majority of innings at 1B in a L/R platoon), but those two examples include one that was attributed to a lower back ache from a cross country flight and another concerning "soreness" in his calf after playing at 1B. There's no history that indicates he'd be able to sustain 1B at his age and fitness, even if he had complete days off against LHP (doubtful, since he'd probably end up pinch hitting for Napoli at at some point).
 
What's the practical downside of a lab test? There are 3:
 
1. He refuses...because, Ortiz
2. The experiment shows that he can't pull it off...poor fielding as well as hitting
3. He hurts himself and his bat ends up on the DL
 
Upside?
 
1. Better offense (addition by subtraction, particularly against RHP)
2. Better defense down the spectrum (Ramirez off the field)
3. More LHH in the lineup
4. Papi gets to talk to a hell of a lot more players during the game
 
Won't belabor this because I appreciate that if it were at all viable, at least one other person or writer in the world would have suggested it by now.

 
I think those potential downsides negate the positives IF the reason they are doing it is to win more games this season.  He's not going to magically get into better shape, so if a game or two is going to leave him more sore or fatigued than usual, the result could be some combination of a lesser Ortiz even against RHP and an occasional game against RHP that he's forced to sit because he can't physically sustain playing 2-3 games in a row in the field.  Is a diminished or less frequently hitting Ortiz better than having him at full strength (and hitting poorly against LHP) along with the specter of Hanley playing more in LF?

 

[E5 Yaz]

Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo  9s9 seconds ago
Pablo Sandoval taking grounders at first base
 
 
Could be something, could be nothing

 

[geoduck no quahog]

 
Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo  9s9 seconds ago
Pablo Sandoval taking grounders at first base
 
 
Could be something, could be nothing
 

 
Reds, hard to argue the finer points, particularly since Ramirez is starting to look less embarrassing in LF. 
 
Hmm. This other option...Sandoval/Napoli platoon with Holt the full time 3B? De Aza / Victorino platoon in RF?

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
Reds, hard to argue the finer points, particularly since Ramirez is starting to look less embarrassing in LF. 
 
Hmm. This other option...Sandoval/Napoli platoon with Holt the full time 3B? De Aza / Victorino platoon in RF?

A 19 million dollar platoon player, ouch!

 

[YTF]

Just to touch on what Al says about a 19 million dollar platoon player. I fully get what Al's saying here and because of the money it's HIGHLY unlikely we'll see this, but generally speaking I often wonder about the unwillingness of teams to do this if and when in means fielding a better team. Your payroll is what it is regardless as to who is on the bench and who is on the field. That said, do you play the players who maximize you're chances of winning games or try to justify the money that you spent while continuing to put certain high priced players on the field when someone else might be better suited for that particular game or situation?

 

[grimshaw]

Probably for when Napoli gets DFA'd.  I mean it has to happen at some point right?
I doubt it has anything to do with Pablo's struggles at 3B, and more to do with very little 1B depth for the time being.  Holt is wasted there too.

 

[Thelobsterroll]

Nava is rehabbing at Pawtucket currently. Given that Nava improved last year after a stint at Pawtucket and given how horrible Napoli is you have got to give Nava another shot right?

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Napoli with another brutal night:

• 0 for 5, 3Ks and 4 LOB
• Grounder right through his legs in the crucial top of the 10th 

Why delay the inevitable? 

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I have a real soft spot for Napoli, and I've been of the belief that he would turn things around.  I was really encouraged coming into the season, given his surgery and his performance in spring training. 
 
But not only has he been horrible at the plate, but he's looked "off" in the field as well.  Quite a few ground balls have hit off of his glove, some then grabbed by Pedey.  A dropped popup yesterday.  A ball between his legs today.  These are things that didn't happen at all the past couple of years.
 
Either his struggles at the plate have now affected his performance in the field, or he's just gotten really old, really quickly.  Regardless, he's done.  Maybe DL him first, but I don't see this getting better.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

I have a real soft spot for Napoli, and I've been of the belief that he would turn things around.  I was really encouraged coming into the season, given his surgery and his performance in spring training. 
 
But not only has he been horrible at the plate, but he's looked "off" in the field as well.  Quite a few ground balls have hit off of his glove, some then grabbed by Pedey.  A dropped popup yesterday.  A ball between his legs today.  These are things that didn't happen at all the past couple of years.
 
Either his struggles at the plate have now affected his performance in the field, or he's just gotten really old, really quickly.  Regardless, he's done.  Maybe DL him first, but I don't see this getting better.

This about sums up my feelings. I love the guy, but it's time to let him go.

 

[Byrdbrain]

The ever present lobsterroll suggested Nava and I suppose once he gets some more AAA at bats then he is worth a shot against righties but I don't have high hopes.
 
As much as Ortiz makes sense on paper I just don't see him as a viable option, it is a waste of Holt to be there more than occasionally and no one else on any of their rosters appears to be any better at this point.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

I have a real soft spot for Napoli, and I've been of the belief that he would turn things around.  I was really encouraged coming into the season, given his surgery and his performance in spring training. 
 
But not only has he been horrible at the plate, but he's looked "off" in the field as well.  Quite a few ground balls have hit off of his glove, some then grabbed by Pedey.  A dropped popup yesterday.  A ball between his legs today.  These are things that didn't happen at all the past couple of years.
 
Either his struggles at the plate have now affected his performance in the field, or he's just gotten really old, really quickly.  Regardless, he's done.  Maybe DL him first, but I don't see this getting better.

I really like Napoli and what he's done for the team too, so it really pained me to write this about him a couple of weeks ago. Nothing he's done as changed my mind. Unfortunately, it's just been reinforced.

 

[GaryPeters71]

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats  8m8 minutes ago
Just had a conversion with another team's baseball ops guy. "Sox 1st base?" "Who knows but hear they're all over Byung-Ho Park for next yr."

 

[soxhop411]

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats  8m8 minutes ago
Just had a conversion with another team's baseball ops guy. "Sox 1st base?" "Who knows but hear they're all over Byung-Ho Park for next yr."

http://m.bbref.com/m?p=XXminorsXXplayer.cgiQQid=park--000byu&t=0

 

[soxhop411]

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

The KBO is like the PCL. Jung Ho Kang hit 40 home runs there last year. Park may well be a solid major league hitter, but his 52 home runs last year and 25 so far this year probably translate to half that or less in MLB. I'm not saying he's not worth pursuing, but I'd also caution people to avoid drooling over his power numbers the last few years. A huge adjustment needs to be made.

 

[soxhop411]

The KBO is like the PCL. Jung Ho Kang hit 40 home runs there last year. Park may well be a solid major league hitter, but his 52 home runs last year and 25 so far this year probably translate to half that or less in MLB. I'm not saying he's not worth pursuing, but I'd also caution people to avoid drooling over his power numbers the last few years. A huge adjustment needs to be made.

Given the very shallow 1B market I still would not mind taking a gamble

 

[soxhop411]

Also
http://m.providencejournal.com/article/20140106/Sports/301069941

BOSTON -- An industry source confirmed on Monday that the Red Sox and the Nexen Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization have reached a strategic partnership.

It is the first such partnership that the Red Sox have made with an Asian organization.

Lee Jang-seok, president of the Heroes, views the Red Sox as a model organization.

"We're entering only our seventh professional season, and we have a lot to learn," Lee said in a statement issued by Nexen on Monday. "And as we move forward, learning from Boston should help us a great deal in achieving our vision. We hope to maintain a mutually beneficial strategic partnership that can build and improve new systems and models through active exchanges."

Nexen, which is based in Seoul, went 72-54 last season in KBO, advancing to the postseason before losing in the semifinals.

 

[soxhop411]

In January, an informed source had told Yonhap News Agency that Octagon, a U.S.-based agency that represents Kang Jung-ho, had also signed Park as its client and compiled a player profile, complete with Park's statistics and career highlights, for MLB clubs. Octagon also got in touch with at least two big league teams, the Oakland Athletics and the Boston Red Sox, while Park and the Heroes were training in Arizona.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/culturesports/2015/04/30/33/0702000000AEN20150430004100315F.html

 

[MikeM]

The KBO is like the PCL. Jung Ho Kang hit 40 home runs there last year. Park may well be a solid major league hitter, but his 52 home runs last year and 25 so far this year probably translate to half that or less in MLB. I'm not saying he's not worth pursuing, but I'd also caution people to avoid drooling over his power numbers the last few years. A huge adjustment needs to be made.

 
Well it is worth noting that from the offensive perspective and on paper, Jung Ho Kang's 2014 season arguably screams "career year" a lot louder then what Park is currently doing over there. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
Well it is worth noting that from the offensive perspective and on paper, Jung Ho Kang's 2014 season arguably screams "career year" a lot louder then what Park is currently doing over there. 

 
In KBO, Kang had a career OPS of .886 (.821 without the "career" year of 2014), and so far this season, he's sporting a .697 OPS for the Pirates.  Park has a career OPS of .928.  I don't think it's outrageous to suggest that any expectations that he'll be the same monster hitter he's been should be tempered.  Though even if you scale it back roughly along the lines of Kang, an ~.800 OPS is nothing to sneeze at.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Park has reportedly plus raw power that would play anywhere. The strikeouts are more than concerning, however.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Lots of guys have plus raw power. That is only one factor in hitting home runs in real games. Wily Mo Pena had some of the best raw power I've ever seen but he couldn't cut it at the major league level.

Again, I'm not saying he's not worth pursuing, (he clearly is) but those eye popping home run numbers need to be taken with more than a grain of salt.

 

[AB in DC]

Lots of guys have plus raw power. That is only one factor in hitting home runs in real games. Wily Mo Pena had some of the best raw power I've ever seen but he couldn't cut it at the major league level.

 

 
Or, dare I suggest Sam Horn himself?  Not many players have a career .228 ISO with a BA as low as .240.
(WMP had career .195 ISO)

 

[absintheofmalaise]

We posted our articles about Mike Napoli and whether he has a fork sticking out of his back.

 

[GaryPeters71]

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats  4m4 minutes ago
Over his last 800 PA Mike Napoli is a .227/.341/.393 hitter.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

What's the point of merging his last 800 PA together? If he was putting up that line, we'd all be content as his OPS+ would be 105ish.

Last year he was fine. That just undersells how much he's sucked this year.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Last year he was fine. That just undersells how much he's sucked this year.

 
Last year, after the ASG, he hit .216/.339/.399
 
His last full month last year was August, when he went .175/.316/.363
 
Last year, he was not "fine" ... particularly as it relates to heading into the first half of this year

 

[Cesar Crespo]

That 2nd half slash line still made him an above average offensive player. August not so much. A .738 OPS is nothing to sneeze in this era and it still undersells his suck this year. Why not start from August of last year until now?